The Favorites - NFL Week 16 Betting Preview

today to make every moment more this football season. Must be one or older and in select states called one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash r G in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia one eight hundred next step or text next step to five three three four two in Arizona one eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight hundred

nine with it in Indiana, visit ks gambling help dot com in Kansas call one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louisiana one eight seven seven eight Hope and why or text hope and why for six nine in New York Tennessee. Redline is one eight eight nine called one eight hundred five to two four seven zero zero in Wyoming, or visit www Dot one Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chat Milman, Chief

Content Officer of the Action Network. It is week sixteen of the NFL season, three weeks left in the regular season. As a reminder, if you want to hear the Favorites of Full Day Early, you can listen live on AMP. You just download the free AMP app and follow at the Favorites where you can see our upcoming schedule. We're back recording live again this Thursday a m and then a special early recording next Tuesday the seventh at ten am Eastern. We do prize giveaways Thursday night coverage. It's

a lot of fun on AMP. I am joined as I am in every single episode by my co host, my companion, my bff, Michael Padre professional better Simon Hunter. Yeah, it was that not the best sports weekend of the year. Brother, I don't know, it's debatable. Holy to Molly, Holy holy Holy. The World Cup was so insane, Like I can't believe we had to do our show. Convinced me in the middle of the World Cup. Thank god the timing worked out that we went live right as the as the

game went to halftime, dude. And then the rest of the football day, that Jags game, the Tennessee game, the Patriots Raiders game like it dude. Yeah, and the Saturday of the cold I mean, look, we were in the middle of all of it. Um, we got a lot to talk about. We will basketball, I mean, all the sports. It was just a great We will. Of course, as we do, we will get to our foxhold. Uh, we will do the son and says we will do the exact decision. We will start to narrow down the board. Um,

it is worth reviewing. I must say it is worth reviewing. Last week, Um voxhall was Bears plus nine nailed it. Simon says, Jack's plus four and a half nailed it, exact decision, could plus four didn't even sweat it. Uh uh, big balls, Washington Commanders minus four and a half. We will get to it. And then Simon doubled down on Washington for Scooch Roulette Washington minus four half that went with the Jacks plus four and a half. We're going

to talk about this Washington game. UM. I know what it feels like to be you right now, to go all in on a team, have them break your heart like that. Um, and uh, it hurts. It hurts a lot. I want to get to some stats around this game, because it turns out, according to our luck rankings, you were on the right side. But as we all know,

the right side is the winning side. I want to read a text that I sent to you and Matt Mitchell on UH the other day because the Colts game was so insane and then all of a sudden we've got uh the Bears game that we had, the Jack seam that we had, I wrote Sunday afternoon. Again, as is our custom, we don't text in the middle of these things because that MUSHes everything. We didn't like. Not once did we text each other on Saturday when we had the Colts four and a half and they were

up thirty three nothing in the first half. We didn't text once, not a single time, because we're better than that. We're professionals. I texted ho home weekend Colt's heart attack jags w gives us a win today because we had him in the contest. Keeps our division future alive. Lions win clinches our overseason win total. On the Lions, we had six and a half there now at seven plus the Bears cover miracle. We had him in the contest and the Bears must now win outright the rest of

the year. They must win out the rest of the year for to beat their season win total. We had him under five and a half. So in the contest we went three and two. I'm gonna wrap up my soliloquy here. But in the contest, we had the Colts, we had the Jags, Um, we had the Bears. Uh. We had Seattle. We lost that on Thursday night. And because Simon made us because Simon wasn't insistent, because Simon knows what he's doing, all the things he says to me,

I'm a professional, you're stepping in it. I love the Giants, it doesn't matter. You're bullying me into taking the commanders and we're putting them in the contest. You made me feel small the entire week. We're even liking the commanders. Uh. For liking the Giants. You made us do it. I said in the app this is all Simon, I said. If it doesn't work out. At least it's going to be content. It is now content. We went three and two instead of four and one. Yeah, the shame of

having another winning a week? What is that number? Oh no no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. You don't get to you don't get to be like, oh, I got it wrong, but we still won. You' even watched the game, so you don't know what happened in the game for starters, well I do. But here's the thing, and this is you got the recap from everyone. Listen, listen, listen. I didn't think you'd get so defensive, to be honest, I thought you'd be more of a professional. This is

me defensive and out right here, this is me defensive. Yeah. You know how much we love the luck rankings. We talked about it all the time. It is the best measure of regression that has ever been invented. It is the best measure of how you might want to think about betting the next week. For example, the top of the luck rankings last week, the Bears the Colts, Like,

those were games that you wanted to be on. Right, So when the week is over, uh, Sean Kerner, Nick Giffin, Billy Ward the guys who do the luck rankings for us. They asked the question in the luck Rankings slack, basically saying, who do you guys think was the most unlucky team this past week? And people threw it out there like was it Tampa Bay, What was it Philly? Chicago? Um, it was Washington Commanders. UM. There were two red zone turnovers, they were dominant in yards per play. There was a

Giants defensive touchdown. Ron Rivera punted from the thirty five uh six points off of two fifty yard field goals uh for the Giants. UM. Washington missed a two point conversion and an extra point. The expected score this game, according to our Metrics, was Washington ended up being New York. So Simon, you were right. No, I mean, it's one of those things where it's like I took the it's just painfulness sentence that I lost a lot of money

on it, and uh, I'm not getting that back. So it was a great weekend of the sense that dogs go to overtime to die, and we had two dogs go to overtime. They both covered for us. So I already had felt up by using my luck, but the Washington one, I honestly didn't feel like, Um, I did not see a plane out that way, obviously, but it's an L. Like in the end of the day, like you just said, it's a bad bed. It's an L. I am the last person ever go well, at least

I got good closing line value. Ever being that guy, it's and l's and l. It doesn't matter if you have a good closing line value or if you had a good reader, the luck doesn't work out. Um, the Giants, they burned me all season and them, them and the Jaguars, Like if the Jaguars hadn't covered me and Chad would have been three and nine in the contest on Jaguar games, which is by far our worst record, but close to that is the Giants we like. I just I've been

burned by them all season. I can't stop it. Like they're the luckiest team ever. It don't matter. They keep winning, they keep covering. Um, So that was that was a tough one. But at the same time, like you just said, it's like, yeah, I was, I was hurt that night. Then you wake up next morning, so like I'm already onto week sixteen, what else can I do? That's kind of the way the business works. I can't really mope about it. Just gotta move on to next week Rondo Cincinnati.

One more thing about the luck rankings, which I love and we've talked about and Signy you and I referenced them all the time. I'm convinced me. We rent them in on green Dot daily all the shows that we do. When there is a luck differential between two teams of ten points or more this season, the underdog, meaning the team that is more unlucky, covers at a fifty clip. When there is a luck differential of sixteen or more, the team that is more unlucky is covering it a

six clip. And by the way, we're not talking about five games like that second number. That's a a data set of close to sixty games for this season alone, a hundred games for the first one of ten plus, So you know, it's just interesting numbers to me. We've created a new metric here that really defines value in a different way. I'm super excited about it, which we talk all about it. It's another tool you just don't

only bet it if it lines up with you. That should give you more confidence back to your side and to the people that this weekend, told told me how meet how lucky meet Chad got because all these teams came from behind. Guys, there's obviously luck that plays into it. We put in the work and for our new listeners. Not even two years ago, me and Chad finished in the top twenty and our pick contest. So that's gonna be two out of three years now that we're gonna

make the money. Because met cha can go owen five every next three weeks, we're in the money. Yeah, dude, I had no idea I was gonna ask you. I mean we're behind, We're not that far off the leader, That's what I mean, Like we're up there. This year is better than that year. I mean that year we finished I say top twenty, Well we tied for twenty, so we're probably twenty six. This year we're looking for

top ten. So yeah, it's tough. I've seen I wish we won four and one, Chad, but three and two and on a week a lot of people out of down week. It was good because the public had a go week. I mean we saw that the public with super giant side, but that was the public side. The public side was huge on the Bengals they were down

what was that seventeen nothing? They came all the way back. So, uh, some guys got hurt trying to go with the sharp side this week, and that's kind of how it goes, like you're not gonna always always been the right side. And that BEng was one of the perfect example. That number sat at three and a half all week. Really smart groups were all over that, They're all over Washington. They got slaughtered. So that's just there there. You never know when you make these bets, you never know. I

was gonna ask you for an update. We went three and two. I think we had fallen. We had lost a little ground before even though we went four and one. So where are we will place your we in? What's our total number right now? Well, the first place got finally lost. You lost three games, which was nice because again he had been on this crazy rue. You knew it was gonna eventually come back around. That's just gambling. Um. So luckily for us, we're four back, four back, and

what place are we in? I have to pop it up. I bet you we're like we probably moved into the top fifty, top forty, and yeah, so when we did it two years ago, there was three thousand people, so like that was obviously a little easier. This year it's over four thousands, so it's just that much harder to make it back in the money. Um, the fact that we already locked that up three weeks to go, chat's pretty crazy, brother, just two losing weeks, we're in the money.

We're in the money. Um, all right, you know what, then, it's fucking rock and roll. Let's close this out. Let's close it out with three winning weeks and a lot of fun. And I was sad. I was just thinking to myself, we only have seven weeks of football left and seven Sundays left. When I just said it was weeks sixteen and we had three weeks weeks left, I was super bummed. I'm loving It's been a good weekends. And you know, we'll talk about the Jacks a little bit.

But my uh older son is home from college and a friend came home with him, and my son was that my older son was out, my younger son was out, and so my kid's friend was watching the jackson A game with me, and they're from Jacksonville, and so it was insane to watch the end of that game. And I'm going to miss these Sunday moments so much. Um,

all right, let's talk about the Jackson the Jets. Thursday Night Jets are It's like you're seeing lines on both sides, basically both teams being underdogs by bye bye one plus one plus one and a half. Zach Wilson, this is a hard one. Yeah, I'm legally opting myself out. I can't. I can't make a non biased pick here where the numbers said the Jets. The smart side is the Jets. You always take the Jets here. I love the Jaguars. I love everything about them. I love what they've become.

They're my top three favorite team the bet this year. I'm just I think of all of the money I've lost them in this year. I love them. I love this team. I've loved Trevor Lawrence. I feel like a proud dad seeing them grow up this season, like they just they've changed so much as years gone along. You just see the confidence building where even when they're down in the games like they were this past weekend, they just never give up. And I love I love that

about teams. So the smart pick is the Jets. You're taking the Jets at home in a short week after a really bad, crushing loss at home against the Jaguars team that just had the one of the season for them, Like that was an insane way to win a game at home. So DA really can't make a pick on this one. So whoever the dog is maybe all tease, I'm up with someone to throw that into play, But as we sit here right now, I just I'm so biased. I just want to take the Jaguars despite the numbers

saying you take the Jets. I just can't give out a player and make a play right now. I feel like with this Jaguars team, we were just too early. Um we we believed in Doug Peterson so much. We're both big fans of Doug Peterson. We thought he his sort of learning his teachings would would imbue themselves into Trevor Lawrence much sooner than they than they did, and

sort of the chemistry would would be there faster. Because I also had a pretty big bet on Trevor Lawrence seventy two want to lead the league in touchdown passes, and I felt like on Sunday he was trying to make up all the ground at one time, you know, and he'll still finish top five. Like he's got twenty four right now. Uh Kirk Cousins as twenty four, he's behind Geno Smith at six and Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and the Homes with both all thirty and north of thirty.

He's gonna end up having an incredible year. Yeah. Well, I told you. The hardest thing about what I'm doing is I'm we're not seeing anything we when we do this podcast in May in June, all I have is just the what I saw last year, and then all the data on paper on on your computer, right, that's what I have to go off of. So the Jaguars on paper, I love that company there because they had all this talent and then you look at their schedule. Okay, they had that week one loss to Washington, but then

they won twenty four nothing against the Colts. Then they won at the Chargers third eight to ten, and then they went on the road. So again that's two huge wins back to back. We were full on sucked. Then then they went and played the Eagles on the road and they lost that game with all those turnovers and all those turnovers, they lost by like eight points. I

think it was like twenty one. That was like, oh my god, they're for real, Like they just went toe to toe and one of the best teams in football, and then they turned into a dumpers from here. They lost to Houston the following week six thirteen to six, and it just was a spiral there in the middle of the season. So the fact that they, you know, Doug Peterson righted the ship after they lost five straight games in the middle of the season and you know,

they've just been playing in these good close games. They had to blow out obviously against Detroit Um. But yeah, the Jaguar is one of those teams where it makes me feel good, like we love them coming to the year we have. I mean, I know, Chad, bet if I have a lot of money, bet on them at

thirteen to one, twelve to one to win this division. Easy, easy, easy time Now to take up position on Tennessee, like no matter what, even if they want, if they lose this game, that they have to beat Houston and then it comes down to the final game with Tennessee. Those are the That's what me and Chad talked about all the time about taking positions that hedge out on since a dream scenario like if you had gotten it earlier. Even if you've got seven to one or eight to one,

it's it's easy three to one no matter what. When they played Tennessee in the final week of the year, So uh, you're right like that them in the lines, those two making the playoffs, that would be just amazing for us in the show, just because those are two teams we really talked about a lot this past summer and they've really come on here at the end of the season. So, like I said, I'm too biased to

make a logical pick on this game. That's why the Lions Jets game was so hard last week, because like we love the Lions, we've been in love with the Lions. We pit on it. You went with your baby Detroit. I went in love Baby and the Jet Lyons, and I was dead wrong. Yeah, exactly, all right, So we're gonna move on from that one. These Saints are two and a half point underdogs to the Browns in Cleveland.

We've talked a lot about this already on Green Dot Daily, so hopefully people catch that show at noon daily in the Action Network, Gap on YouTube, etcetera. There is Arctic weather crossing the US should be snow should be a been below zero, should be uh fifteen to thirty mile winds um it is the lowest total in a decade, down to thirty one and a half. I kind of like the Browns here. Wow, yes, I mean a full slatest Saturday on Christmas Eve. Chat isn't again. We're just

just a magical month run we've had your sport. I should remind people this is a Saturday game. Yeah, it's Christmas Eve. Yeah, I'm with you on Cleveland. We gotta follow them. Wait and see what the deals with Nick Chubb. Nick Chubb apparently it's not practicing today. We need him to practice. We need we need Nick Chubb. We are at me and Chat are not Watson backers. We just we do not think he looks right. I think the public is with us on that. What they put up

thirteen points last week against the Ravens. We all know Flamar played in that game. Ravens are gonna win that game. So yeah, not not don't know really what to do with this one. Um, I'm with you, Chat, like I wanted to take Cleveland against the Saints team that we've seen all year. They've struggled when they've on outdoor, especially with Andy Dalton. So um, Cleveland were probably the play, but I just need to know what the deals with the child. All right, Well, look, I'll look forward to

a text on Saturday morning. Um, we'll be doing convince me Saturday morning and so hopefully we'll get an update at that point and we can decide after the show for putting it in. Falcons seven and a half point underdogs on the road at the Ravens also a Saturday game. Huge Saturday slate, obviously a lot of games being played on Saturday, smaller slate on Sunday, Christmas Day. The Ravens are seven half point favorites. Indicates to me people expecting

Lamar Jackson to play. I have no opinion on this game. It would be a pass pass right move on Bengals Patriots. Now the rubber meets the road. We have been on a street with the Bengals. We have loved them. We played them consistently in weird spots where they were road favorites. We didn't do it this past weekend, but we didn't bet the We didn't put the box either. Now they're three and a half point favorites on the road. At

the Patriots. Yeah, yeah, just like last week then it was like painful we stayed away from it was seventeen nothing or seventeen to three, and I was kicking myself.

But it's like, of course the Tampa's controlling this game and doing whatever they want, and the Bengals are just laying a total leg I don't know what to deal with this, Chad, like, this is a game I've already bet a game I would love to make the Simon says, bet but I care about our fans, and it's like how much how many people are actually gonna listen to us chat like this is? I think a lot there is going to listen to us. We're really good at this, I know, but I'm just I feel I feel what

they're what they're gonna say. It's like I can't do it. Where it's like you have to do it. If you've been betting these ugly dogs with us all season, you have to bet this. You have to bet the Patriots, who just embarrassed themselves and then are gonna be made fun of all week ring against a Bengals team that is I don't even describe it. They're one of the greatest public teams ever forbetting. There are eleven a t s last all weeks, and the public has been betting

them basically that whole time. I think the only time, I mean you really went against the grain was in that Tennessee match up where Tennessee was at home. They were an underdog at the time. People still thought Tennessee was better than they were and they were all over it. And since he just once again, they came, they came in and they won. They've just been that team this year. We have no choice. But this is a game we always have to play, so uh, maybe I won't make it.

Time says you want to make a foxhole because this is this is truly it's either that are big balls, like it's one of those games we all have to bet because this is what we've done all years. I feel like we've got a pretty good contender for big balls. Okay, do you know what I'm talking about. I mean, there's like three games this week that take huge balls, all right, So, uh, I feel like there's a contender for big balls. If

you want to make it. Assignment says, go ahead, But it doesn't feel like a Simon says to me the spirit of Simon says is right now because the line is going to move. I do think this could move though, like pros are gonna be all over this, but um yeah, let's let's just make it a foxhold on, you know me, regardless of what's going on. I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. Jus, I hate this. I fucking hate

this game. I know, no, it's awful. I have more confidence in this than I did with the Bucks last week, where like the Bucks, I couldn't see the road map, but the number didn't make sense. Where this number does, Like I literally have this number three Like last week with the Bucks game, I couldn't touch it because we said all the time, why is this number not six?

And that just spooked me. Just a weird number. This number makes sense, like since he yes, they're very good, they also have weaknesses and some of those weakness is going to be exploited by a Patriots team that's desperate. So um, it just feels like I hate to be like, oh, this is such a smart play. This really does feel like a smart number, Like you just take this number and one of those games if you can't handle it, just don't watch it because it's not gonna be fun.

Patriots plus three and a half. We're going to the Foxhole. Let's go the Buffalo Hills, going to visit the Monsters of the Midway covering machines. Bears are eight and a half point underdogs at FanDuel. There are other places where you can get nine and a half. I just want to be clear on that. Other legal places dogs between three and ten this year, covering at a fifty eight percent clip. You're getting a bad team less than win

percentage against a good team more than win percentage. The Dogs in this scenario cover at clip the past six years. No reason not to take the Bears at eight and a half or nine and a half if you can get it. Yeah, And we just we keep seeing these teams that have good offenses called Chicago and when they had to keep up fields keeps up. I mean Miami came in, they put up thirty five points, fields put up thirty two points. The Troy came in, they put

up the one points, fields put up thirty points. We saw the Eagles, they came in, they put up twenty five, put up twenty it's just I can't explain it. It doesn't make sense. I watched the whole game. The kid would run in for twenty yards, get a first down, take a sack, so then it'll be he'll be second and twenty seven, and they'll run it again for another fifth yard to get another first down. It's just it's literally recess recess football, and there's no game playing, nothing

teams can do to prepare for it. Um, he is the freak. But on the flip side, the Bills have just been caught by the books. I mean, we could finally get caught here at chad By back in the Bears. But it's another thing that's it's got us to this point fading. Josh Allen is a big favorite. In his last nine games, he's one in eight A T s and and you can look at the numbers, it could be two and seven because it depends. You got that Brown's number, Remember that that Brown's got moved from Buffalo

to Detroit, and that number is all wonky all week. Um, the Bills are just a good team. But are they the great team that everyone keeps putting them on this pedestal to be? No? I mean they just they led teams in these games. We've seen it time and time again. Like Miami, they're in control of that game in the first half. Miami comes out in the second half, plays them tough. Josh Allen becomes a superhero that he is,

and he leads his team on these victories. So I think the Bills are rightly rightly so a top three team the f C. But their team that gets caught in these big spreads. And that's what the books keep doing. They keep having big numbers. The public are happy to do it. They're happy to bet them, they're happy to throw them in teasers, and we keep getting free points here chat. So the snumbers should probably be seven and a half. I mean, like you just had Fantal it's

eight and a half. Shop around it's nine and a half. So hopefully it grows nine a half everywhere and maybe in ten. That'd be amazing because we didn't even talked about this is gonna be a freezing game. They're calling from mine's eleven degree weather. Josh Allen, he is incredible. We just saw the Bills give up two hundred yards to Miami on the ground. That's what the Bears want to do. They want to run the ball. We saw them run last week all over the Eagles, and it's

the same thing with this matchup. So a lot of things just point to this Bears game. So it's does it feel a little too easy? A little bit chat, I'm not gonna alloe to you. We've had two weeks now where um, you know, Denver the week before was the biggest bet team as a big dog that covered. Last week, the Bears were the most pet team against the Eagles that covered. So the pros they've been over, We've been all over these big spreads at home. Uh. I can't avoid it. It's just such a big number.

I just can't not take this number. It is strange, right, it does feel like, wait a second, why are they still making this number so big knowing everything we know about the end of the season, especially with this Bill's team, but also just when you're getting the over inflation on a team that's really good, and maybe it's people just back in the Bills and the books are giving the wise guys that the point, half, a point whatever because they know all the money is going to come in

on the Bills. Anyways, it's kind of crazy alert how many quarterbacks. Have you received brutal anyone takings to do something about this album? All right, Minnesota Vikings are three and a half point favorites at Vandel hosting the New York Football Giants. I know it's a bad number. I know we've been mocking Kirk Cousins all year long. This

feels like a Viking spot. Yeah, I'll wait and see on it, because I'm with you, like like four and a half five, I was like, nice, it's a good number on the Giants, Like you just said, they got crazy lucky last week, and I don't know the public. I'm excited to see what the public does with this number, just because, like you just said, it feels like the no brainer play here is you just take the Giants

like they're good on the road. The Vikings they win games when they win, they win close games, So you just take the three and half kind of the same reason we took the Colts last week. Um, but Minnesota here, offensively, they just match up really well with this Giants team. Um, and there's no Daniel Jones had big players. I couldn't. I cannot believe that fourth and nine completion he had against Washington was insane, like he does have these moments

where he really does step up. But man, that's uh, that's that's tricky chat. I want to join you on it, but I can't. I can't make a move on this one yet. I'd have to hear what other guys are doing, because to me, it feels I feel like you just said it where it's like I blindly wanted to take the Giants. The number has moved a lot, like it's all the way down to three and a half in the last two days, So I'm gonna wait and see on it. Well, look, it may continue to go down

because the number opened at five. The money is on the Giants right now, So what's that? That just seems like the pros came in early, like you said, it opened up for five. Yeah, that money is no money coming in on the Giants at three and a half. That came in on the Giants at five and four and a half and four. But it's possible if it gets to three, I'd be comfortable taking the vikings here me as well, Like if if we honestly, like you know, our context does a weird where they split the difference

with a half. So if it's two and a half. It's like, how can we avoid that. We're getting them under a field goal at home the team that's kind of a no brainer. So now we got the Detroit Lions who cashed our season win total ticket. We love this team, we have loved them since May. We want to marry this team. They are two and a half point favorites over the over the Panthers on the road.

That's a tough one. Yeah, it was actually gonna be My assignment says that if it was at three, I was gonna tell people you gotta grab it right now because it's gonna go back to two and a half. But it's sitting at two and a half and money is pouring in on Detroit right now, So yeah, I'll tell people just wait, that's what I'm not gonna make it. Time said, you can just wait and hopefully next show will be at three for you. But to me, it's

like a play you have to make. Carolina at home with that defense after getting embarrassed the week before, the three games before that at home, their defense had really shown up and dominated. They did have a bad week last week. That was just one of those games that where it's like trying to overreact to it, take too much from it. They still have a chance to win

their division. So if you're like, well Caroline is gonna quit, they're not like their in their mind they can still win this division, which I also love for this matchup where they're desperate. Carolina is gonna be a very desperate team. Catch on three at home, I gets a Troy team that, man, are they feeling good? Like they've just been on this crazy run now it's the second of it's the back to back outdoor thing as well for me, where it's like all right, back to back outdoor on the road

for golf, Hell yeah, win this game. I moved them way up my power rating board because, like, to me, this is the kind of game you win. I put them right up there, like right behind at Eagles, Vikings, Cowboys, forty Niners group where it's like they deserve to be in the playoffs. This the Troy team is legit because this is a trap game for all the temference purposes, Like this is kind of those games where you we're gonna go on the road, They're gonna split two road games.

They weren't gonna win win both because you just need to either have like an m v P or an MVP defense, just a high level talent to do that. They do that. That shows me a lot because this is just such a bad spot for them after such an emotional win. The two like a missfield goal man. That must have been such a fun ride home for them that flight. Everything still feeling good all week. Caroline

is a complete opposite side. They just got absolutely blown out and was the same reason people are so heavy on Pittsburgh the week against Carolina. Right, Carolina had a huge win on the road, then they came home. They kind of laid an egg against the Pittsburgh team that was just more desperate. So, um yeah, interesting Number one one stand three. There's one book that sells a three sadly route sponsored by that show that that company. So I'm not gonna make it, Simon says, because we don't

have the three right now. I was gonna say, there is a book that has a three out there, and I don't think. I think in the spirit of our partnership with Fando, we should not make that the play. Uh, here's an interesting game. The Seahawks are on the road at the Chiefs. Seahawks run the ball really well. Chiefs do not do not defend against the run very well. It's going to be one of these games that has crazy wins potential. Snow, we're still on Saturday games six below. Yeah, huge,

Like the total. You should talk about the total for a second. Started a fifty, now down to forty eight and a half. But the spread is nine nine and a half. What's your take? Yeah, when we can start with the total open at fifth, sit down a four and a half, I would still take that. It's already talked about earlier today. It's going to be a nice bowl there. It's supposed to be negative six with win,

with win blowing. Um, I've say it's Tuesday. Things could always change, but that colds not go anywhere like that colds him down. It's gonna be there. Obviously. The big deal is the wind. If it's a windy game, no doubt, like smash that under. I would just bet the internet. I just gotta have the number in case it does move way down. Then you could play in the middle two you can get to go to the the middle opportunities.

So looking at this matchup, though, I feel like you just nailed it where it's probably gonna be a completely different game plan that we used to for both these teams. It's just gonna be hard to be a past heavy team when you have the weather as it is. And we already know the Seahawks their biggest weakness is the run. Team's gonna run against them, and he Reid's gonna do that. He's happy to make those kind of adjustments, but versa like the Seahawks. You just said it. It's like the

Kenneth Walker thing. I knew that was an important important to Gino. We've kind of seen these last couple weeks, but they can't get a run game going and the offense seems to flutter. So I can't do it. I cannot back you know again, even though I love this number and it's so massive, it's just we say it all the time, not that he just turned back into a pumpkin, but a little bit. It seems like the defenses of kind figure it out what he likes to

do and what he doesn't like to do. And we've seen him defended differently these last couple of weeks, and they've struggled. I mean, they went from leading the division to being almost eight percent guaranteed to make the playoffs too. They're probably not gonna make the playoffs unless they steal

a game or two here. So um, interesting how quick things flipped for the Seahawks team where everything was just so well and even their fan base was like, yeah, we could use that high draft pick to get players to support you know, we don't need to take a quarterback too. It's completely flipped of yeah, maybe maybe gives you know, a one year deal, but we need a draft a quarterback and that that is kind of how it goes where. Um, you know, he's a great, great felon,

he's a great backup. Is he one of the thirty two best? They should be an every week starter? That's that's up for debate because it seems like defense is kind kind of figure him out. So I usually love to just take blindly against the Chiefs. Is a big dog. Um. I could maybe get talked into it, but as you sit here right now, you know, just disappointed me so much last game, like there the four yards were begging for that game to be stolen from them, and he

couldn't complete drives. I mean they drove down there, they got two field goals if those are touchdowns one game, but it wasn't because you know, it just was not capitalized in their red zones. So, um, I just I can't make a bet yet on this one. I love the Seahawks here right now. Yeah, that's the right I mean, it's the right player. Just my home was a big favorite, never really works out for him, and like the Seahawks,

they've got guys who can cover. So it just feels to me like schematically on the field and the number the Seahawks on the right side. The worry is Congino keep up though. That's the worry right now because Gino three weeks ago, no brainer. But these last couple of weeks they've just been so bad offensively and even defensively. But I do think the Cold want to gate some of that, some of their weaknesses. But now you're right, it's probably I probably talked myself into it, but right

now I just can't do it. All right, Well, uh, we can always think about the Texans at plus five and a half against the Titans, it stinks this is gonna be our no brainer play you would have banged up Tannehill forced his way back into the game last week. I don't think he's gonna play like we've already seen this number come down. I'm out, like we we've been in this exact position before with the rookie QB in there.

Derrick Henry ran over me and Chat. I mean, Houston got absolutely demolished by Derrick Henry the last time they played. You just go through the history. Yeah it we're just like a hundred and fifty yards against the Houston team. Derrick Henry just for some reason dominates his team every time. So Houston, if the season had started two weeks ago, people would be looking at them as the top three team. I mean they want why wire to wire with the Dallas and then the same thing with the Chiefs, Like

love you Smith. I went from thinking he was a joke to like, this guy gets his guys up, Like he can keep this team focused at whatever they are? What are? They won in twelve, one and thirteen. Pretty incredible, But it feels like we missed the best of the number here, Chat like, yeah, I'm with it that we should probably be in Houston. But the fact that there was seven and a half just this morning and yesterday, it kind of kind of thinks we missed the best number.

I'm rushing through this a little bit. There's a lot of games it's you know, but there's also just some games that I'm dying to get to. Commanders plus seven against the Niners is not one of them. Really, you don't like that. I like the Commanders in the game. Yeah, it's the right side, like you're like, the Niners are so overinflated. Right to do when he's a big favorite chain of hand, you always fail you them. Yeah, this

is the move. I'm with the Commanders. I think everyone just has a little bit of a bad taste in the mouth of them, even I bet you luck ran because will come out. This will be one of the bigger ones. The corn As have been very lucky. Oh my god, it's gotta be. Yeah, So seven and a half, like I'll be on the Commanders maybe a Bible of chalk and talk chatting to be in one of our five.

But there's just a lot of dogs out like this week, so I get if it's about one of our five, but seven and a half that's hard to pass on. So with Seattle plus nine and a half, yeah that's fair. But at the same time, like heine Keys shown us something these last couple of weeks, do you know he's been a trainer. Rock all Right, Eagles plus five and a half right now against the Cowboys? Which one is this? A Simon says, was this a big balls? Are we

making an executive decision? It's one of those for this game. Yeah, yeah, it's if anyone out there you can still grab the six, you grab the six obviously for the Eagles. Um, this is gonna be a huge, hugely debated game. Like me and Chad, this is gonna be a guaranteed bet on Dallas for us. When this game opened and Hurts was healthy, this was ain't no brainer bet on taking Dallas here. They had a horrible loss. He's had an incredible win.

Not incredible, but just a really guts you win. Where that that Bears game that was such a letdown spot that you would think, Okay, Eagles are gonna get all the public love in the world because no one's gonna get why Eagles team is an underdog to this Dallas team at home. But it just made sense this was gonna be a good matchup for this Cowboys team at home. How can we not take Eagles. I agree it's a big step down from j Dalen Hurts, but We've already

seen Minshew kind of be in this situation before. Last year, he came in and played against the Giants. The Eagles won that game and he played well. I think he threw four for two yards at two passing touchdowns, like a QB rating of nineteen. Eagles are just really good, Like they're all around are just really good. They have good receivers. Dallas Goddard's coming back this week. This is gonna be such a great letdown spot for this Eagles team in the sense that, yeah, I know it's Dallas week.

This is usually the game they lose, Like we've usually split with Dallas. I love the Eagles in this position, like like the fact that they're this big underdog. Now the coach is already wearing the underdog hat, like just getting the guys fired up out. Everyone's already counting them out because Hurts is out. We've already seen all the players talk about it the next manten up and now this this morning, Uh Sirianni said he's not counting Hurts out. He said he met with the trainers and they said

he heals differently than aust He could be playing this week. Sure, that could just be simple smokes. You know, it doesn't matter us though. We're getting a good number. So to me, if you can still grab the six, you grab it. But it's just another game. I mean, you can't avoid, right, Chad. It's an overreaction to an injury on a team that there's a reason the I mean hurts is incredible Minshew. Isn't that horrible? Is he three or four points worse? Yes?

But is he six seven points worse? No? And that's just an overreaction by the public. I also feel like Um Gardner Minshew in one game is different than Gardner Minshew as your starting quarterback. Gardners in one game is a straight out baller. Love Yeah, Like that's the mentality one of him. The one game. Doing sciences, Simon says, Eagles plus six. By the way, that the luck rankings that he had gotten from Nick Giffen crack producing by

Matt Mitchell to get this while we're alive. Biggest luck differential of twenty four this week bears thirty Buffalo six. So the luck differential of the Bear, the luck differential. The next biggest one, Titans Houston. The next biggest one also a game that we're going to talk about Green Bay Miami eighteen reminder any differential that is sixteen or more covering it clip this season. Atlanta, Baltimore, Indie Chargers, New England, Cincinnati are the next three, all above ten.

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get back to the show. Raiders, Steelers, Steelers three point favorites getting the money too, By the way, that's me. I'm on it like it's one of these games I bet earlier in the week when it was opened at one opened it, it went to to bet it two and a half. Bet it No. Now I'm just waiting the public will come in on the Raiders and hopefully they'll get me back back down to two and a half.

It's just a classic spot. You're taking a Pittsburgh team outdoors in a freezing cold temperature against an indoor team from the West Coast. That I mean, you can say their car usually has let downs on these kind of spots. So um looking at this game. Chat. If the Pittsburg kind of had such a huge win against Carolina, I probably would be more in on this and make this one of our five. But you know, this is just a spot between two teams that a field goal is right.

But that's why I didn't get why this game was plus one. Pittsburgh deserves that respect here, especially at home against the Raiders, team that historically does not perform well outdoors. So um, yeah, like like like Pittsburgh two and a half the three, that's where I just I'll just wait. I just wouldn't get that number. It's just such a key number you might as well wait and hope it comes back down to two and a half, just because the public will. They'll take the Raiders. That's gonna be

a tease team everything. It's a plus three dog at home in a freezing chili game between two teams that are pretty much a coin flip. So um, if you're like sitting there, you're just like, well, I want to go through with the Raiders. Honestly cannot fault you because I think that's exactly what the number should be. I feel like in this game, Kenny Pickett's coming back, you definitely want to wait, Like I think this will go down to two and a half. They were seeing the

tickets come in on the Raiders. People don't know any better. Um, give it a minute, let it breathe. You don't have to bet everything. There are games with the lines are moving, right, you're saying, Simon says, Eagles are moving. We're gonna get to another game where the lines are moving. The Bears might be moving like some of the games we've talked about, like that Eagles one. I could see closing up four and a half. Like that that that blooned all up

to six. It was just such an overreaction, totally Packers of the Dolphins. By the way, Matt Mitchell reminds us, we're onto the Sunday afternoon games beginning with the Packers and the Dolphins. No joke. Eleven am this morning, this line was at five and a half. I bet it at five and a half. It is at four and a half, and it is falling so fast, And if it had stayed at five and a half, it one would have been my executive decision. I still like it at four and a half. Yeah, I still like it

a lot of four and half. It's classic. The team splits are just atrocious, like Miami. Their defense clearly something is wrong, Like they just keep giving up tons of yards every game. There's there's no stopping it. On the flips Green Bay. They know exactly what they are now, right. They're a team that crazy to say, but that kid Watson, it's kind of been a revelation for that team. Like the fact that Rogers has a guy he can have trust with has opened things up. We saw last last

game of the running backs. That opens things up. When you have a receiver they can get downfield and they have to count for that. Where a J. Dill and Aaron Aaron Jones. That is a legit too edit monster and that's what we all expect to come of the year. They'd lean on but they had new receivers, so the teams were just stacking the box and Rogers couldn't really do anything earlier in the year. I mean, they figured they figured a lot out these last couple of weeks.

Of me, if this was earlier in the season, we don't have a way different tune on Green Bay. We probably view them as team that's probably gonna make the playoffs. It's just a little too late for that. But at the same time, they still think they can get in. Like they're not taking anything off for Rogers is playing. He played this week. He says he's playing this week again. There's just there's just something about that Green Bay team

where I'm not gonna lie to chat. When this first came out, I was like, nice, I'll buy the low in Miami here. This line will probably be three. I I was shocked it opened a five and a half and that gave me pause where I actually I didn't bet it because I was like, I'm way off on this line, But like you just talked about, it kind of makes more sense now when you're really thinking about it, where this is just a good matchup for a Green Bay team where Miami is good. I do expect they'll

win this game. It will be a close game, like Miami's not the team we all thought they were like. That was a devastated road trip for them. They I was over the four Ninears. That was a scheduled boss with them playing that four Ninars team on the road. Miami got humbled really quick. The Chargers won. We were all the charges. We loved that number that was of three and a half. That was one of those where I was like, Okay, Miami will win this, but they're

gonna lose by field goal. They lost that out right. They were desperate that Bills game, like they had that game, they had the ball, they were driving, they could have eight the clock up, kicked the field goal and that would have been game to two. I got flustered, he gave it up, he punted, Josh Song drove the field. They won. Like that's what's a difference seam than them in the Bills. So this Miami team, we'll love them

next year. They're just not as good as a public proceds ums and the fact that this line is what it is kind of let you know what the public thinks of Green Bay. They're still not dying in all them where like I just said, I think we're still getting a good number here. This is gonna be one of our five debatable because being where the lines going, but a four and a half, I could be talking to playing this in the contest. Yeah, I kind of

love this game. I feel like a lot of defensive have figured out what to do with the Dolphins receivers Jalen Waddle and Tyreek Hill and the the Packers. Their strength is their defensive secondary and their ability to jam receivers, which is what teams have been doing against the Dolphins the past few weeks. And look, we've talked about this. We've joked about it that we said a month ago it's time to start fading the Dolphins. That their upcoming

schedule they were going to San Francisco. I think it was the Chargers. They were in Buffalo and we went three on that road trip. We faded them twice and we wrote it with him against Buffalo. Yeah, and so um, you know, I feel like we got a pretty good beat on this team. And I do think the Packers are a little bit like the Jacks, Like you made a really good point the Jazz, like they needed some time to get to the season. And now we love them. You know, other people love them, the Packers and one

of those teams where they're on the upswing. And like their defense has been getting a lot better the last six weeks. One of the top six defenses in the NFL of the past six weeks. It was the past and they're not gonna stop in the run. But the Dolphins don't run. So I love it. And just the the only worry now with us backing and Dolphin series, the fact that they do play obviously better at home. We saw that Week one they won seven at home Week one past fard later in the season, we do

you meet you Ron Cleveland. Cleveland went down to Miami. Miami won thirty nine, the sevent team. They had a bye week, then they were at home against Houston. They were up thirty and nothing at halftime. So we've we've seen them domine have explosive performances against bad teams. I just don't know if Green Bay is that bad. Like I don't know if I put them in the same category as those two defenses in Houston and Cleveland where those defenses have been struggling, like that's green Bay for

the most part. Their defensive woes have kind of been figured out here down the road. So, um, we don't need him a win, just keep it close. And I think that's where we're getting here with this number. The Broncos are on the road, they're visiting the Rams. There two point underdogs. Uh tickets out in the Broncos money on the Rams. No thoughts on this game. You guys are psychos if you're betting this, I guess. I guess Broncos because they have a great defense, but not no

real read for me bucks nine point? Am I reading that right? No six point favorites on the road at the Cardinals once again, another game where it's just like, I get what the NFL is doing. All these games look so good for Christmas Sunday Slate, but just absolute stinkers. I guess I'll bet on it because it's the it's the Sunday game on Christmas, and it's something to watch and I love a good home dog. But no, we're

gonna read on this. It's like just two bad teams that you know, it means more to the Buccaneers, so that's why I guess they're getting a bunch of points here. But I'll take six points with the home doog. I guess all I can say is thank god it's NBA games on Sunday, because like these are going to be stinkers of games. I want to watch that Packers, that Packers Dolphins games after that. Switching over to to the end, that's basically it Monday Night Football. The Los Angeles Chargers

are going to visit the Indianapolis Colts. The Indianapolis Colts are four point underdogs at home against a Chargers team that we have sworn we will never bet on as favorites. We will never bet on them as favorites on the road, the Indianapolis Colts will be my executive decision. Colts plus four the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible with its decision. I love it. Jen nailed. It's like we hated that Tennessee game. We kept saying, if it's three,

you have to bet Tennessee the Chargers. Just if they win, it doesn't matter the opponent, doesn't know how bang up or crappy opponent is, there will be three points somehow, Like that's I just this team. I cannot wait for Shampaign to be the coach next year of this Chargers team, Like that's just the Herbert talent is out of this world, like that threat. Yeah, the thirdy ad of Mike Williams. I mean I watched in a loop like twenty times. It's like this guy is the ultimate freak arm town.

So yeah, Colts embarrassing loss at home, it's the Chargers team that. Yeah, they keep winning like they're they're a team that they're playing for the playoffs. Do we think they're gonna win this game? Yeah, because the Colts are terribly coached and they lose every game. But the Colts keep this one close. Like this is where we love the Colts team. I mean, the only fear is it's a prime time game. We've we've seen Matt Ryan in

prime time. It's it's not good. But man, there's every time to buy low on a cold team, as low as it's gonna get. Like they're the laughing stock right now football. Um yeah, love love the Colts, like Chad, Like Chad said this, If he didn't make this his play, I was gonna make a mind grabbed the four now just because I do see it going to three and a half. This is just an inflated line. It shouldn't be moving this second three, I see it moving down to three and a half. It's going up or down

down to three and a half. Okay, So yeah, like that's just an inflated line like that. I just said, it's one of those we have you have to bet because it's just a smart number. It's Chargers team that they play games close. We know exactly what the Colts want to do. The Colts want to run the ball. What's the Charger's biggest weakness. It's against the run. That's why these teams that aren't that good like Tennessee can stay in a game the whole time. Because if you

just get Herbert off his rhythm, he can't perform. It's the it is a weird thing. Like the fact that we scored fourteen points last week, that's kind of how he is. Like he can just get If he gets in a rhythm, you're dead. You're done. If he doesn't get in a rhythm, it's a wonky game the whole time. That's kind of how the Chargers played. That's exactly what the Colts want to do. Like, that's how the Colts thrived, especially in this position at home, everyone's kind of them out.

So me and Chad will be one of ten people watching this game rooting for the Colts, but just a smart number to play, just like the Patriots. It's like it doesn't feel good, but it's a game we have to kind of bet. Right now, our foxhold is Pats plus three and a half. Our Simon says is Eagles plus five and a half. I did not see any six is available. The exact decision is Colts plus four. The games we are leaning towards right now Bears nine and a half, Paths three and a half. Washington is

at seven and a half. Right now, the Packers are on the list of four and a half, but we'll see what the contest says. We like the Colts at four, the Eagles at five and a half, all dogs. Right now, we're waiting. We're going to set an action network line change alert for Minnesota minus three. We're waiting on Carolina plus three, seeing if we can get Caroline at three. And I like Seattle nine and a half. We're going to see if we can convince each other of that.

There's just so many of their dogs though, you know, that's that's the hardest part. We're gonna bet it either way. Yeah, you know, really really fun, really going to be a great weekend for betting. We will narrow it down more on Thursday. As a reminder, if you want to hear the Favorites full day early, you can listen live on AMP. You just download the free AMP app and follow at

the Favorites. We're back recording live again this Thursday Am, and then a special early recording next Tuesday at ten am Eastern. And I want to thank everybody for the Apple Podcast reviews. Here are three winners of reviews this week, Ohio State, d J Thumpo, and then Annie Yoli. Please email podcasts with an s at Action network dot com to claim your prize. This has been the favorite podcast from the Volume podcast Network. I am Chad and Aleman.

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