The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 15

today to make every moment more this football season. Must be one or older and in select states called one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash r G in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia one eight hundred, next step or text next step to five three three four two in Arizona one eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight hundred

nine with it in Indiana, visit ks gambling help dot com in Kansas. Call one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louisiana one eight seven seven eight Hope and Why or text hope and Why free six nine in New York Tennessee. Redline is one eight eight nine called one eight five to two four seven zero zero in Wyoming, or visit www dot one gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites of the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman, Chief

Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined as I am every episode by my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunted Hello. Saw him in Dad. How you doing, brother, I'm living the life right now, Simon. We got a game tonight that we've already talked about, the Thursday night game. We said on Tuesday, bet it

right away, bet the Seahawks three and a half. Since then, we've officially gotten news Deebo, Sandy U all out, Kenneth Walker playing bounce back spot for Gino brock Purty, first game on the road as a starter short week. We like the circumstances we do, but in this episode we got to settle on our big balls better the week, we got to get closer to nailing our final five no more buys in the contest. We're five games out.

We're place out of four thousand. We've lost a couple of games the past few weeks in the standings because the guy went twenty five, and oh, who's ahead of us? And we gotta do stop calls, So let's get to it. My friend Shop calls, Hello, who's there, I'm talking. Yeah, a busy week with the calls. To no surprise, I had a couple of calls about not just this week, but last week about that group that had bet the Browns and other guys were just asking about what went

on there. It's just one of those games they missed. But we always asked how do you handle those kind of things? And I would say, that's that's that's one of those where they had to probably apologize to their customers because that was a really bad and miss Where why are you betting on Deshaun Watson after he didn't play for two years? But handling that, I don't know if everyone's different to me, if I if I got a team of analysts working below, I mean, my lowest

graded guy has just been bad. I've been looking for a reason to fire him. Maybe I fire him after that kind of display on a bigger bet um, just because that was truly a big swing and a miss um. But that's Also when those you just kind of move onto the next week. So it was funny guys talking this week, UM just about that where you know it's rare you wake up and you see a number of move by two points or point and a half, and

you or about that in the night. So this week I think guys are looking at games that are the same kind of matchups of you know what, what is the public thinking that last week that really doesn't matter cater to this week. It's not really worth talking about just because I guess it is for our livelisteners the Seahawks game. But it is interesting that the public is still benning the Seahawks despite Rock Purty. He didn't practice

all week. Apparently he can't throw UM. So I know a really smart group that came in on the Seahawks. I told you, Chad, this was a Sunday game. This probably would be one of my bigger bets. But because it's Thursday, we know how wonky and weird Thursdays could be. I just couldn't do it. But we've seen the number move from three and a half to three, so hopefully you got that number. Like we talked about, UM, well obviously talked about it a bunch today on Action Island.

So one board people to death on the podcast because it's not useful information of them. But it is one thing. One thing to say Seahawks three and a half if it's in the contest of three and a half. The reason we even spent any time on it the other day is because we might put it in the contest. What else did they call you about? One that I saved Chad from stepping in was that Washington game. I know a really smart, smart group. They're gonna come and

have you on Washington. They're hoping the line will get down to four. With all the public love right now on the Giants. Uh, they did take the four and a half, but I know they're waiting to get to the four. That's just a great game to me. I feel like we're ending up on that game. I spotted that last week where it's just like that's a big deal. This team just had a bye week in between, so that's when we're gonna break down. But I can tell you a really smart group is gonna be in that one.

So uh, there's no way we end up on the Giants and rightly there on Washington or uh, I would just pass on that one. They're in line once on the Colts. They love that Colds pick. A really really really really really really smart guy who I highly respect, basically told me this Colds team is they're terrible, but they're every better dream of they're gonna be in these closed games and they're kind of the team that doesn't know they're terrible, Like in all these games, are always

fighting in they just haven't given up. Matt Ryan's not given up. We see him every game. He's he's literally going out there. Yeah, the Picts are brutal, but there a team that just keeps staying in these close games. So it surprises me they loved it now they did love it at four above. So this is one of these games where, yeah, if it's four and a half, I'll put it in. But at four three and a half chat, I don't know if I would put in

our contest, but four and a half. Just love that value because that's where I had this number and I have at four. Just interesting here that this is a game that this guy loves just because to me, I don't know, it's there's there's certain times if I make big bets, I usually want to trust, really trust the quarterbacks,

um or the defense. I guess he's back in the Colts d here against the Vikings team that scores on everybody though, So just an interesting play to me where he's he's going against, uh this Vikings team at one o'clock. But like we said, yeah, we love that number as well. Uh so, yeah, thats not a shocker he would take that position and then for a game we're split on Bengals. The pros absolutely love Tampa. I cannot get behind it, and I think it's just one of these things with

these guys. Keep are gonna keep going against this Bengals team because they've been an absolute cover machine. The public is fat, they are fat off betting this Bengals team. They've just been covering every week for him, and the pros are trying to catch them, and they think they're catching them here. They think this is an absolute trap we already talked about. I just cannot get behind it. I might maybe my model is it is spot on and I'm overrating this, but I feel like this should

be six. If this was six, I could start thinking, Tampa, what the hell? Two and a half different? Two and a half point difference, at three and a half. The money is absolutely pouring on sensing the number is just not moving. So I'm not not sure what to do here, Chad. We joke all the time the prosy they know, they know, and this is a spot where they know, but I just don't see it. I think the books still giving too much value to Brady and this Buccaneers team, and

this is is a classic professional game. The pros are taking a stance, the books are taking a stance. This will be I'm just guessing here. I haven't talked to anyone in any sports books yet, but I will before we do our picks on Sunday. But I'm gonna guess this is a ten to one, twelve to one tickets money bets everything on the Bengals, so this could be a huge trap spot. I just want people to be careful, um if they are thinking of back in the sinse side.

All right, Um, still a lot to talk about. Uh. I want to dig in a little bit deeper on the Colts because that is a line that has moved from four and a half down to four and then went back up to four and a half. We wouldn't put it into the contest at four. Unfortunately for one of us. On Tuesday it moved from four and a half to four. I was worried it was gonna go lower, so I betted it for am I uncomfortable that I betted it for no. I just say, you know, I

hate pushes. I just absolutely hate to push. We want that, we want the hook. Yeah, we want that hook. Uh. But yeah, I feel like our reasoning for loving it is just true in the sense that this Vikings team just plays close games and it's not any fault of the offense. The offense we've seen all season. They've moved the ball, Kirk has played pretty well. Um, justin Jefferson, he might set the all time record for most receiving yards in the season. I know people are like, but

it's unfair because they have the extra added game. I mean, how long did they play with fourteen games, Chad, I feel like that was a long time. So you kind of have to get get over those kind of records in those game records. Uh. Justin Jefferson, think about any games he didn't have catchers their yards where he was open.

Kirk just wasn't getting it to him, So I kind of don't fault him for playing an extra game, But in this matchup the Colts, I just have to trust the Colds will be able to keep this game close. We've seen every team had success against this Vikings defense. We've seen their secondary they're average and get up over a hundred three ten yards per game passing two quarterbacks. Do you go through the list of teams they played the last couple of weeks, It's not like they're all

a bunch of all pro quarterbacks. There's a lot of bad quarterbacks mixed in there. So I'm looking at a matchup of Yeah, it's it's scary backing Matt Ryan, but we're getting them after a by a week, Alright, He's not gonna be all banged up because me for the most part of filming, as good as he's felt all season, and this offense, they have gotten healthier. We saw Pittman

come back before the by. We saw Jonathan Taylor finally get some touches and more carries where he's like terrible all season, he's kind of gotten things a little bit going since he's come back from that injury. So just on the offensive side of the ball, I really do think this Colds team is matched up well for this Vikings team. So it is one of those games that, um, I know that no matter what, we were gonna be

on a chat. As soon as I saw the numbers come out, I was like paying that where I was like, this is the game we always love to take, especially against the Vikings team that's gonna be over inflated just because of their record. But it is surprising, Like you just said, the number went down and it went back up. I didn't really get that. So, uh still like the four and a half, but it is it's your stream, um that it has been bouncing up and down. Well, look,

the Minnesota defense is just bad, right, Uh. The Lions only had two punts the week before. I think the Jets they were in the red zone six times. Uh, and they had they had nearly five yards against the Vikings defense. Um. You look at our luck rankings, which we love, which is the best measurement of regression for the NFL in the country, and those numbers when the delta for is sixteen or more, meaning the Cults are in our luck rankings, they've been one of the unluckiest teams.

The Vikings are second. They're one of the suckiest teams. So that's a delta of twenty six. Yeah, it's an auto play on the Colts, right, And so here's one more stat again. I always mentioned the Action Network podcast with Chris Raybond and Stucky It's Brilliant, comes out Thursday mornings. Here's something from that from that uh podcast. The Cults are actually outgaining their opponents. Minnesota is actually getting out gained by sixty yards per game. The Vikings are just

a lucky team. And I know we like talked about it on Tuesday. I don't hate the Vikings. I just hate betting on the Vikings. I don't believe in them, and like that's it I want. I mean, people are gonna come back at you just saw. I'll say it before they say they will simply say that's because the Vikings are usually in a lead position where the Colts have been behind probably in every game, which is a

fair argument. But I feel like what you're saying is these teams are as far off as the records perceived. They both like that. That's what he's talking about, the luck factors. So I do think that does play into it, all, right, culture culture in there. If we can get the four and a half the culture in there. Yeah right, I really do like that number h Jacksonville Jaguars. I love how Jacksonville now they refer to it as Duval like Jacksonville is so non to script. Nobody cares about Jacksonville.

There's no attitude with Jacksonville. But Duval County. Now, Duval, now we're talking about. That's some character, that's a region. That's what people are getting behind Duval. I don't give a funk about Duval. I don't give a funk about Jacksonville. I do like the Jaguars in this game. Uh as the Florida Native. I do care about you, Jacksonville. Sorry for all that slander there. Um you didn't see their mascot last week in a speedo. That was great, fantastic,

It's great. I love it. Um. Yeah, another game where me and check in help ourselves. What the hell are we supposed to do? People and people I got I got so many message about this that we just love jackson What every week we take Jacksonville, it's fair to say, I mean me and jad Joe, we would literally be in first place if we just faded Jacksonville every week this year. Our contest Uh, that is fact. That is

literally facts. It's true. But we are going strong with Jacksonville down the stretch because we have Jacksonville plus seven fifty to win the a f C South, and we love it even better. I gotta like thirteen fourteen o one where we were taking in May and June. I'm all in on it. But it's also if you're one of those people you have as big as I do, you obviously eventually need to take a position on Tennessee because those are just amazing odds and they have to

kind of run the table here. So this is a great spot. It's not that it's the reason I'm mainly taking the Bears, but I love look ahead spots, and I doubt the Eagles are gonna overlook the Bears. They claim they're saying all the right things, and I think the same thing with Dallas. They're probably not gonna overlook the Jaguars, but they are looking ahead. That each other face each other the following week. That's a big deal.

The fact that Eagles and Cowboys play each other final week, and the fact that they're both on the road as favorites, that's a big deal. It's like transitioning to the Bears and Eagles right now. No, I'm just saying, like that's what's it's built into this line. I do believe that this line would probably be higher if this wasn't such a look ahead spot for the Cowboys are looking ahead right saying with the Eagles, Um, I mean they're literally

already chatting about each other two weeks out. I mean, Michael, yeah, so looking at this matchup of do I think the Cowboys are gonna overlook the Jaguars? Not at all? But how much more does this mean that the Jaguars team? I mean, this is what we're just talking about. This is kind of it. They have to kind of went out to make the playoffs, and this is a game they need to steal. I mean the fact that it's

still at this this point at four. I thought i'd been down to three by now, because I didn't think that's gonna be a big professional bet play um on the simple fact that this Cowboys team has struggled, uh this season with certain teams and certain matchups. But you know, it is the Jaguars and that's why it probably is four, right because they have so many disappointing losses this season of they're in these games and all of a sudden

fourth quarter comes and they just actually have meltdowns. But everything I've seen or Trevor Lawrence, it seems like he stepped up to the plate. Like he talked about, he can't keep losing like this. He needs to be the leader of this team. He said the right things. After that Ravens game. We saw the finaling week delayed the dud. So that's the weirrire chat is We're back in a team that just had a massive win on the road against Tennessee. Now coming home, are they gonna lay dud?

That's the fear here. So I don't I do love it, but I'm trying to listen to the fans and not get too sucked in. Like they said, they're begging us not to make it one of our five. Probably listen to you people. But I do love it. I feel like we're getting such good value around Jacksonville. But I get Look, here's the thing, it's the value. If this game was three, we would have been bad. But how is it four and a half? Look, the Cowboys have

injuries on their offensive line. The Cowboys have injuries in their secondary Trevor Lawrence. Something has clicked in the second half of the year, and a lot of those losses we had with the Jaguars, they were earlier in the year where we were buying into Trevor Lawrence thinking that the chemistry with him and Doug Peterson was going to be better than it was, and it's finally starting to get there. Um and look, did Jack's have a good

rush defense? I think that helps them against the Cowboys, and they've got a really good offensive line against the pass rush. So it's just too big of a number. That's it. I I get where people are coming from, though, I am sorry. We just I love we love this team. We love these like these are such good matchups. And this is the public hates him. This is why we're getting value. Simon. As I tell my kids, don't apologie us for who you are. We are a Jaguars loving team.

We are a cult's loving team. We are going to ask people to do ugly things. We're going to ask them to believe in us and over the long haul and by the way, long haul meaning a season you're gonna win. True, I mean, and I messages people back, I tell them I'm losing with you like, this isn't like I sent them tickets. It's like I bet beg on the Jaguars. I'm hurting with you because I get it. People are like, I hate putting my hard earned money on this Jaguars team, but you got you gotta trust

the process. People, please, speaking of trusting the process. So it's really interesting to me this has been a year in which underdogs of more than three have been crushing. Yeah, and so here's what we've been talking about. Jags plus four and a half, Colts plus four and four and a half, Bears plus nine. Look the Rams two weeks ago, the Broncos last week, the Bears this week. I want to get your take on this because we know we're

going to bet the Bears. But this is one of those things that we talked about all the time, and that you play the number, you play the situation, but you also got to think about the teams at this point in the year. I love the Bears here, I'm not walking away from the Bears plus nine, but their defense does scare me a little bit. Like the reason we liked the Broncos at plus nine because we like

their defense so much. The reason why we liked the Rams at plus nine is because we thought their defense could sustain against the I think it was the Seahawks, so I mean they were that's plus seven and a half, plus eight, whatever it was. The Bears do not have their Bears are playing in JV defense right now. Yeah, they're all full, but it's the game changer of fields. And I'm not gonna lie chat. When I saw that he had illness and wasn't practiced in this week, not ideal.

We've got a guy who's a vegan who's got apparently some type of flu or maybe it's a stomach buck. I don't know what he's sick with, but he's sick and he's missed I think two practices now not ideal, especially the fact that I've already met this damn game. I bet the nine and a half at the nine because I did think this is gonna go down to eight eight and a half from the next couple of days. But you just touched on it though. It's like, what

can we do? This is an inflated line though this Egos team, yes, they are very good, they are very talented. We see how hard it is to cover big numbers. Because it's hard to sustain it for an entire game. It's just human nature. If they go up twenty one nothing, you know you head into half, are you gonna come out with the same kind of energy in the second half. Probably. Note we've seen this that with this Ego seam as sure, they get up big on teams and they've let teams

back in the second half. That's happened multiple times this year. So I'm with you on the fact that this Eagles team is clearly a jugger not We talked in all off season. This was the best put together team on paper. This is better than the Ego Super Bowl team the whole the questions was ken Jalen Hurts learned to read a defense. Clearly he has. I mean, this is incredible. He's playing at m VP level. Every reader is right. When he should run it, he runs, When he should

pass it, he passes. He takes the deep shots. Bears are probably one of the worst defenses of football. But we're back in here is the fact that you guys are a great team offensively. We've seen it every week with Justin Fields. He he really does produce. I believe Herbert's back right the second number two running back for you guys. I believe he's back off the injury reserve, so that's another weapon this offense is getting back. Um, it's just too big of a number. Chat. That's why

it's like I'm I'm with everyone. That's why it's a foxhole bet. This is terrified. This is gonna be one of the least bet teams of the week. Every teaser, every money on, everything is going to be connected to this Eagles team. Are Eagles really going sixteen and one? I mean think of all through all the history of all the teams with just one loss to the season. So there's just there's just tend to be games that trip up teams, and it just feels like a good

spot to take against the Eagles team. This is their second road game, just before they played Dallas the following week on Christmas. There's just so many little distractions. I know Jalen Hurts saying all the right things and he's all he's laser focused. But man, if there if there's a spot to overlook a team that's coming off a bye week, we got we gotta buy this Bearers team. That's such a big number. But I'm with each other's there's a couple of games this week that that's what's

gonna be tough on Sunday. It's like we're gonna take all four of these games that make a sicker. We dropped one or two out of here. So if the Bearers will make the list, I wouldn't be shocked. But at nine and a half in contest, it has to be in. That's just a huge number in the contest. Simon, the sicker the better is that you're saying. That's her saying the sicker the better. If we don't feel gross, if we don't look like the goddamn puke emoji on Sunday,

then we're just not doing our jobs. Um. I also do wonder if if the Eagles are a big in the first half, because they do play so well in the first half, do they pull back a little bit in the second half. And I don't mean they're not trying as hard, but are they more conservative with the offense? Are they not pulling everything out of the playbook to try to build the lead? You know, because they do

have the Cowboys the next week, they want to be healthy. Um, you can start to take your foot off the gas a little tiny bit and that leaves it open for Justin Field to joke and make his moves and you know, do all the backdoor cover things that we think he can do while the Bears still lose the game. Well I will I will say this as a Bears fan.

Me and my buddies have been texting about this. This is the greatest season ever because because we all believe in Justin Fields and for the first time in what feels like a generation, it looks like the Bears have a roadmap. The the management team feels competent right and you can see where the holes need to be plugged. And every week our expectations aren't to win. Our expectations are let's have fun watching Justin Fields, let's pray to the football gods he stays healthy, and let's move on

next week. Win or lose, we don't care. I mean, Bears, you want to lose though, like this great, absolutely amazing draft to be bad and not need a quarterback. I mean your front office. I do think they are smart because they made picks and you guys had nothing last year to players that really look pretty good. Again, it's still early in their careers, but they look good for your defense, Um, Bears. Oh yeah, there, that's the craziest thing.

We talk about the time about the draft. It's like it's such hit and missed, such hit and miss stuff, where going back it's a no brainer. We even go back and listen with you. We talk We talked that at nauseam in that draft about how we didn't get why Fields is on the number two quarterback And look

at this Jets team. Now if they had Fields, they know how different this year all of that, and then think about that with the forty niners, if they had a weapon, if Shanahan had a weapon, like justin Field. So so I can't wait till this upcoming draft. I think there is an other three or four quarterbacks that's

kind of same thing. It's it's all in there. But that's why the Bears have to be feeling so good where you have never ending amount of money next in this upcoming off season to get an offensive line, and then you should have enough draft picks to try to fill in going ahead all the pieces you're missing on defense.

So I'm right there with the Bears fans. This is like this probably to me would be the most exciting I'd feel about this team since that um that season with Mitch the double doingk season, where like that was a great season for the Bangs. Uh because Mitch, you guys all believe. I believe too. I mean I was like, Okay, Mitch is gonna be the Bears quarterback. Now we saw quickly that can change. I still see that same fate

with fields. Here. Old Barnwell, who we've had on the podcast before and as a brilliant columnist at ESPN, has a great story. It's on the front page of ESPN right now, looking at and it's Germaine to what you said about the draft, looking at the moves, the picks, the Denver trader to Seattle for Russell Wilson, that um, the Rams traded to Detroit from Matthew Stafford, and that New Orleans trader to Philly for like a variety of yours.

They end up getting Christal Love. Right. So now we're talking about Seattle, Detroit, and Philly all having really high first round picks. The Eagles like, how is the goat? Dude? It's Super Bowl with Jailee hurtson quarterback, and then they have all these picks to make, like to get people on the edge or to like it's gonna be insane, insane with the Lions, Like the Lions can plug some really important holes. There's options for Jared Goff over the

next couple of years. Like it's insane. I try not to. I try not to beat people down with like my Egos fandom, but like, yeah, I think every Egos fan right now is just like holy ship, this is really our lives right now. Like this team is stacked, very young, and there's just tons of draft capital coming forward. So it could be a great four or five year round for the Eagles. Yeah, how he how he is? He's playing chess. Everyone has playing checkers. All right. We talked Bears,

we talked Colts, we talked Jags. One wild card for you real quick. All right, Well we haven't we haven't done a big balls yet. Um, and let me remind people you mentioned foxhole. Bears plus nine is our foxhole? Simon says, Jack's plus four and a half. The exact decision Cults plus four. Um, if you have a wild card, is it our big balls? Yeah? You want the big balls? Well, is it the same as the wild card? I want

the wild card first? No, my wild card. I just wanted to hear what your view was of this Chief's Houston game pass normally here here's why all week I've been waiting for this line to go higher. I'm saying, what if it was thirteen and a half? Then contest? Would you chake Chiefs? That's interesting. I think about it over the weekend because literally, Houston, they have no no one left. Well that's that, That's what I mean. All

these injuries. It would be an autoplayer on the Texans, right, but every injury, right, but they don't have like Cooks might not be playing, Damian Pierce isn't playing, like their top two corners aren't playing. Yeah, so it's very possible. And by the way, in a half, let me just say this, all right, let's flip it right. Our worldview is always take the docks, and so for us, a big balls better the week is Titans plus three or

Raiders plus one. It's actually a favorite. But what if I, like a couple of weeks ago, I made us take the Bengals as a big balls better the week is a favorite? Yeah? What if what if the Chiefs as two touchdown favorites? Was there big balls better the week? I don't got the balls to do it, I'd play a contest. Yeah, I honestly, your face the way you just your face just looked. Yeah, it might as well have been our big balls Better the week because my other one I want to give our I got another one.

I feel like it more confident. I just I just think if it's thirteen a half, that's really hard to pass on that because I could see a closing at fifteen sixteen kick off. Yeah, I'm not uncomfortable with playing the Chiefs is a favorite in the spot, all right, love it, but yeah, you're righty for the big balls. I wish I was mainly enough to take Tampa. I do, people, I really do. I just I just cannot do it. I cannot do it. Big balls better the week going

against my guy Chad Washington football team at home. Why would you do that to me? No, no, no, no, no, yeah no. Look I haven't bet the Giants yet. Everyone's saying the same thing. This game played in the tie? Why is this in the game not three? Why is this game out three and a half? Once you hear every Joe Schmo, even the guy in the seven eleven is talking about it. Because I live near a lot of Giants fans. I was like, holy shit, this this is gonna be a monster for the book, isn't it.

So this gotta be the Big Balls? But you don't want to do it? Hold on, what do you mean the guy's seven eleven is talking about like you when you walked into seven eleven. He started talking about it. Yeah, and my Eagles head on. He's like, you you're an Eagles fan. I was like, no, I just stole the hoodie, fun fun jersey comma, but yeah, it's just a classic Giants fan trying to get into my skin. He's like, you're scared, right if they make the playoffs. It's like,

you guys ain't making the playoffs. But and then he started going on without this line. I was like, holy shit. And maybe I'm overthinking it here, but you just feel like every one of their grandma's gonna be taking this four and a half. They think they're getting a gift here. That is that is, that is the spirit of the Big Balls. Better the week is to do the exact opposite, And all anyone who's talking about is the Giants plus four and a half. I listened to Raybund and Stucky

this morning. Stucky loves the Giants. I gave you all the reasons I love the Giants. I went on, I went on more ways to win. It's a show on FanDuel TV. All the experts there love the Giant, love the Giants. Keep going the Giant. Let any dimes on the road. Like they played to a tie, the Giants were up by seven. Lad they had the field goal they missed. Let's go Cheff. Yeah you all right? I love it now, you know you know I love these home favorites and the public loves these road dogs. So um,

this has been very profitable me all season. I'm gonna keep riding this trend. It said them nicely, especially Chad is saying that it feels like the public and a lot of these like guys who bet big money are all gonna be on this Giant side. I don't see us putting this in the contest, for sure, it's gonna be in there. I'm not I'm not going to be the nice, nice guy on Sunday. I'm forcing one inn

force this one in. I just know, I just know a really smart group that's gonna come in on them, or maybe they already have, but it's there's just a lot of things that point to this being a great number. Got the pros on it a good number. Every week there's a game that we're convinced we're on the right side of with like an ugly dog, and oftentimes it doesn't work right, And so is this the game this

week you're talking about? Were for the season? Usually, but every every week there is a game that maybe we don't put it in the contest, but that we love and that is like, it makes total sense to bet it, and then the game happens. You're like, what the funk happened there? Right? Who knows? This could be the game I happen to think you're wrong, But we're not going to get off because it's a beat off. Then I don't want it to be a bet off because you're

already four. You might as well try to end your own five. Don't fucking bait me. Now, you're gonna cheer for this one because we're probably gonna have this one in there, right, Like, I'm not. I'm not I'm not doing that because I'm not going to bet on the game that I'm ment secretly hoping the upside honestly, the upside of winning in the contest is greater than any amount I will bet on this game. I wish you felt that way when we put Tennessee over the Eagles

in that was one of them. That was one of those picks, right that I'm talking I'm talking about I feel like I got good calls on it, and it just feels like what you just talked about just feels like the public will be on it as well with the Giants. So one of those spots, well, let's look right now. Let me tell you right now, the where is the public on this game? I'm telling you they're gonna be Giants? Dude, this guy is the public is the worst seven eleven of the tickets. Of the money,

where is it? Who's it on the Giants? Oh Jesus, yeah, Chad. But here's what's interesting. To prove your point, I'm going to be a mention. I'm going to prove your point of the money is on the Giants. The line hasn't moved all week. What does that tell you? Right? For those but I told you this group is literally they're waiting as soon as it touched for is that they're hitting it. So it tells you that the wise guys are gonna like the Washington commanders find Simon, you did

what you're supposed to do. You did your job. You showed me the light. Thank you. You took me from journalist who knows this to professional level insight. Okay, peek behind the curtains, peek behind the curtain. You did it. Congratulations. All right. So that's our big balls and now God only knows. I'll be heavier on Washington than I will in any game this weekend, and it'll probably end up

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seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louisiana one eight seven seven eight hope NY or text Hope, n Y in New York, Tennessee. Redline is one eight hundred eight eight nine one five to dred in Wyoming, or visit www. One eight hundred Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Hey Simon, before we continue on, are you familiar with Omaha Steaks? Yeah, Chad, there they are delish. That's perfect because the holidays are here and you can become a holiday legend by gifting

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and the Raiders. I like I still like him at home. Yeah, obviously one and a half. We were in a static We're hoping it was gonna keep keeping up the two the pros came in that was just too big a number. Um, yeah, Raiders are the right side of that one. So we we might. We might. I might end up talking chatting to it. He might end up talking me into it. The Patriots just clearly aren't the team are used to They've only been beating up on bad backup quarterbacks. Um,

the record looks way better than it should be. They've been very fortunate this season. It should be a good game for this Vegas team. This is exactly one Vegas disappoints us. So that's a tough one. Um, Tennessee. I don't know. I was hoping for a shure. I was hoping for more pro calls on it, hope when the pros were gonna love that one with US split, it's all split. They think the books are undervaluing a healthy team. Now on this Chargers team, right, they got Mike Williams back. Yeah,

they're They're just healthy. And the fact that Herbert you can watch it on film, he took that shot. Was it week two or three at the ribs for the Chiefs. Whenever you heard those he heard his ribs. Um, he didn't look good for about four weeks there and every week since, and he's progressively looked better. Now you look up and he's like top five in passing and pretty much every category. Herbert's just an animal. So, oh, man, I get where they're coming from. The Tennessee's defense struggles

against big body receivers. Look at who they just lost to. He started with the Bengals. Um they went down there in Tennessee. They beat him, then they lost the Eagles big body receivers, and then they just lost to Jacksonville where's a Jones had an incredible game against him. Who

Jay Jones is a big body receiver. So the matchup, Yeah, favor is a Chargers team, but means chat, I feel like it's been good to us taking Tennessee as a dog bigger than three, and it's been good to us to fade the Chargers as a favorite bigger than three. So it won't end up, I guess in our five um, but I feel like it just saw my principal. I just have to blindly take Tennessee here that the it feels like they are reeling right. They're going through injuries,

everything like that. But if Burke's is back the wide receiver, if they have more than two healthy receivers, I'll probably end up on Tennessee. If not, I'll just avoid this game with us, likely because it is split. I know a really smart group that is pounding the charges of two and a half. They think they're getting great value. We've seen this number. It's been three and it really hasn't moved. So um. Definitely an interesting game this week. I forgot. I lad there's one more game I want

to talk about. Takes a little bit about it. The other day. We didn't settle on anything. Ravens plus three right now against the Browns. But it's like, what are we doing. We're gonna back to the third string quarterback for the Ravens. I know we're supposed to like Ravens defense verse a broken Watson and if you even go through the Nick Chubb's numbers, he's been suffering since Watson has come back. So I mean, I get it. I

get why the pros they're betting the Ravens. I'll probably end up on them too, but I don't still know if I can make it my five chat. It's like, man, third the third stringer. I know we got away, we got away with the last week with Rock Party, but that was like we're back in that amazing system and all that the offensive weapons on the four nineers. They do not have that on this Ravens team. Like I know Dobbins was able to move the ball last week

against Pittsburgh, but I don't know. Mark Andrews just hasn't looked himself for weeks now, and they don't really have a number one receiver, and now we have a third string quarterback. So I get what you're saying, Like, on principal, I should love the plus three, but and they's just I'm saying, I'm getting sucked in on Chad's August Darling and this Carolina team to win this division. So I don't know. I think I'm drinking the juju. The juice I see the Ravens dropping a game here and this,

this feels like a good number. So three, I'm just I'm stuck. I wouldn't pick either side in honestly, Mike White, we talked a lot about the Jets and the Lions. We love the Lions generally. UM, Jets with the superior defense, Mike White now playing outside, Jared Goff kryptonite. Um, everything here is splitty. We take its money, everything, no consensus. I mean we know our side though, like we have to take the Jets. We have to take Jets the

defense outdoors and against golf. UM. I love it though, because this is this to me is like why I love December football. This is a true playoff game. Both these teams. This is a playoff game for both. It seems to make the playoffs they need to win this game. So I love it. I love the lines, like you just said, the lines just sitting there to pick all week.

Love it, Love everything about this game. One of those where we're not really getting much value either side, So maybe we won't have it as one of our five, but I'll be on the Jets and I cannot wait to watch this game. I love Dan Campbell so much. I'm so glad that he's gonna be coaching this team next year, and I think he will be um all right, our Foxhold Bears plus nine, our son sex Jack's plus

four and a half are e d exact decision. Colts plus four are big balls better the week, Washington minus four and a half. We are. We're gonna talk about it. We put and see adle in or not, because let me say this, we like the Colts, we like the Bears, we like the Jags, we like Washington. We're thinking about the Chiefs, like thinking about Vegas. We're thinking about Vegas. I don't know, man, I know that's that's that's when

we'll talk more after we do the Island Show. But as we sit here right now, I freaking love the Seahawks, like Broc Purty not throwing the ball all week, Like that's a that's a big deal. We might be getting stringer tonight. I think my feeling is that if this were a game on Sunday, we wouldn't be hesitating. And it's always scary to us to do it on a Thursday on Thursday because I hate that, oh on one

headed in the Sunday. But I'm trying to convince myself it's all good chat because we can either we can do a pick on Saturday anyway. So I'm trying to and zone it. So it's like we should end up on this game, you know what. I think we gotta do it all right, let's we're gonna put it in. Is it three and a half? Yeah, yeah, I'll be three and a half definitely. Okay, so people listening know that we're putting Seattle in. I'll put it in the app under the phase five. Um, so you'll see that

we put that pick in. Uh, what is our scoot Roulette this week? Simon? Oh my scoot rot geez, Like you just said, there's so many games I love. Um, should you suhoually ever written down I gotta do it, then I guess I'm like, I'll in on it. I'll go Washington. I knew you were gonna do. I have to you have to scroll off to the list here. It's like, who who who? Who am I stick and claim on this week? It's gotta be the commies. Uh,

you know what I'm gonna do. Then I'm gonna do Jags four and a half even though it's yours, Simon says, because it was gonna be my exact decision, but you pulled it first. So I'm doing Jags plus four and a half. Our money line round Robin, I would do Jags. And this has been anyone listening. I've I've way lowered my bets every week. We've just been not us particularly, we just football in journal. The dogs have not been

winning out right, They've been covering. But our win weight went right went way down for out for underdogs out right. So just don't be don't be going as crazy as we were earlier in the year on these uh money line around Robins, Jags, Colts, Colts Raisers. Yeah, okay, that's fair. I mean, what are you gonna do? You not gonna put the Bears in there. No, let's go to Tennessee and we gotta go. We gotta got balls in this

last one, this big one. I gotta go with Miami. Interesting, it's gotta gotta get weird with it because we didn't even talk about Miami as a game. Well, it's left the seven and a half, and that's what I want. I want the seven and a half. I don't want the seven. So that's one of those we just wouldn't have in um at that number. And we already know the deal like this is you go. We were taking Miami outdoors, a team that struggled in the elements, uh

not ideal. So that's why I just didn't think it would be one of our five because there's so many unknowns that don't really not even right. In fact, I would I'd almost be more comfortable making our big balls Buffalo and then Washington, but whatever you love Washington, that's everything. Bears plus nine is Foxall. Simon says, Jack's plus four and a half. Exact decision, Colts Uh plus four Big Balls, Washington minus four and a half. Scoot Roulette Simon Washington

minus four and a half. Chat is under the Jack's plus four and a half for a scoot Roulette money line round robin one more time, Jack's Colts, Raiders, Titans Miami. Do you expect us to be putting in Seattle plus three and a half in the contest? I will put that in the act A network app follow the phase five. All right, silent, We've done it all, my brother, I have done it all. Uh. This has been the Favorites podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. Four might bff Simon

Hunter for our producer extraordinaire Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Mellman. Download us from Spotify, from Apple Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts. Don't forget rate reviews, subscribe and he was five stars say whatever you want. Feedback is the gifts. More importantly, listen all the way through people. We know that helps juice the Apple Podcast rankings. We like staying in the fat two hundred until next time, Love you.

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