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This week on Prime Cut, John middle Cough on the Cowboys blowout over the Giants, Steve Kim former Arizona GM on Aaron Rodgers, the injury and what's going on ahead of that, Chad Millman, Sharp R Square, and my top takes of the week. I'm a big believer in sustainability, Like can you do things and repeat things over and over? You know, always making a lot of money in your life and having a great job is not usually sustainable. Living below your means, investing, being frugal, spend less than
you make is sustainable. I tell my kids that all the time. Just get into patterns, be prepared for bad times, and so when they hit, you don't have to change your lifestyle. And Philadelphia the way they wont tonight, dominating the line of scrimmage, that's sustainable for sixteen weeks, weeks, fifteen weeks. That's a great offensive line getting over the top plays. Some teams, the smart teams like New England just took that away. They just don't want you to
go over the top. Track meet teams. Miami tends to be that Dolphins looks like a little bit of a track meet team. Now their games are wildly entertaining against the Chargers. You're not going to get that every week. That's not sustainable. Right, Like Tyreek Hill banged up, Jalen Waddle out, you face a team with good pressure, Tua gets hit. He's been injury prone. But the way the Philadelphia Eagles won tonight and it was ugly, is incredibly sustainable.
Dominate the line of scrimmage. You know this is not college football. Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Osbourne. They got dudes too, a couple good edge rushers. Minnesota's got dudes too, but Philadelphia hasn't really played that well offensively. It's very rare that you can go on the road. Last week, the Eagles go on the road, get out played in the second half and win tonight choppy, turbulent first half, didn't pass the ball effective early and won.
They had a nine minute drive at one point and didn't score. Totally sustainable. You're laying Johnson's Kelsey Jason Kelce best center in football. Probably you can do that every weekend. And you know, if you go back and look at New England's dynasty and I you know, I was loaning Connecticut during the last ten years of it, or a big chunk of the last ten years of it. There were the Randy Moss years where they were winning shootouts
and blowing people out. But a lot of times in New England during that dynasty, just in the AFC, Baltimore had better personnel many years, so did the Steelers. Colts had equal personnel. They didn't know 's have the best teams. But if you remember, they always got great offensive line play with their coach Dante Scarnekia with Brady, they were very good pre snap. They were great at getting pressure, not always sacks, but pressure on opposing quarterbacks under Bill Belichick,
and they got turnovers. They were outplayed in a lot of big games Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Colts, Denver, and they just found ways to win by being very good pre snap, good special teams, a big situational play late, sometimes a trick play with Julian Edelman. That's sustainable New England. If I could define their dynasty, they were the smartest team in the league. Brady really smart, Belichick a brilliant defensive coach. They were not always the most talented. Smart is sustainable.
The Randy Moss years are not I have real concerns about Buffalo. Josh Allen in college at Wyoming was a wild talented pony, just needed to be coached. Goes to the NFL first year, out of control, talented, bit of a mess. Brian Dables sand Paperson becomes an MVP level player, cuts down on turnovers, mechanics improve. So I watch him and I see a quarterback who has regressed three picks, a fumble, not sliding. Mechanics have regressed too much. Side arm crap, did not execute very well at the end
of I thought regulation, poor clock awareness. He skipped a couple of passes in the game. Josh Allen looks like he needs coaching. If you don't think coaching matters, go look at Kyle Shanahan as a coordinator to Matt Ryan made him MVP. All right, you look around this league the best defensive coordinators dan Quinn Dallas. You don't think he matters. That cowboy defense is sensational. So when I look at Buffalo right now, they're in a bit of
a quandary. Miami is a sizzling offense, Belichick's defense is tough, and Mac Jones is better than people subscribe to the Jets defense matches up very well with Buffalo's O line. Even Zach Wilson tonight, you know late in the game, moves the ball well enough to get him in field goal range. Buffalo has a defensive coach. Ken Dorsey had a good reputation, but Josh Allen is back to wild. Mechanics are regressing. Decision making was poor. I just just I don't like what I see. Windows are small for
Super Bowls. You know, you lose a coordinator, they shrink, you don't have a second dependable receiver. They shrink. You have a key injury, or lose a defensive player to free agency. They shrink. Von Miller's out shrink. So I don't like what I see with Buffalo. I don't like the direction they're headed in. I thought the Jets were more composed. Getting a backup thrust into the starting role with arguably a worse offensive line. That's that's what I saw.
A quarterback that has an offensive coach has a decided advantage. There were multiple situational moments in that game when Mike McDaniel, that offensive coach, dialed up wonderful, clever, smart plays for Tua, many coming on third and long that really helps a quarterback. Meanwhile, Brandon Staley, defensive coach, coach supposed to be a brilliant defensive coach with good defensive personnel, has yet to figure it out. Remember that lead they lost in the playoffs
to Jacksonville. How many third and longs do they surrender to Tua? Brandon Staley to me, appears over his head at the end of that game, justin Herbert Twice goes back to throw. The Chargers are completely ill prepared as Vic Fangio, which he's not prone to do as a defensive coordinator, dials up big blitzes. He doesn't do that a lot, not his style. I thought it was a great example of a really good coaching staff, Mike McDaniel
and Vic Fangio completely working the Chargers staff. Brandon Staley, to me, was not viewed as the logical choice Brian dabol was, who was friends with a GM Tom Telesco. The Spanos family took the cheaper head coach available Brandon Staley, and I think I think he's completely, absolutely over his skis. Go back and watch the replay of this game. Multiple situational moments where really good coaching and Miami's side won
the game. I feel bad for Justin Herbert, but so much of this league is where you land, what coach you get, what owner you get, and what franchise you get. The Chargers have so much talent, very few whiffs in free agency or the draft. It's a stacked roster at home favorite. But in the last two drives with each team, you saw obvious examples of superior Miami and inferior Charger coaching.
Steve Kaim spent more than two decades with Arizona. Former player for the Dolphins, scout worked his way to GM for nine years, is now joining us on the Colin Cower Podcast. So a torn achilles for Aaron Rogers, Oh no, wow, it's not good. So a torn achilles on is that out for the season?
Generally, Oh yeah, yeah it he'll unless something happened where you know that it's still attached to some degree, more than likely. And I've torn my achilles. He's it's a nine to eleven month surgical process.
Oh my god. That is gutting.
And generally the second year coming off an achilles is really tough because it's a it's it's even worse than that. In my opinion, and I'm not a doctor obviously, but you know, the a cl is a tough one to come back from right away, but the achilles is really really difficult.
Does it make it worse because he's an older quarterback thirty nine.
No question about it? I mean, obviously, and I said this at the end of my h you know, career as a general manager, it was no secret that older guys got hurt more often. And then now all of a sudden, you're coming off that it's going to be a grueling rehabilitation process, and that is also probably going to test how much he really wants to come back and loves it.
That's a great point I've hadn't talked at pro athletes rehab early in your career. It's a very optimistic, hopeful process. It's a very negative process late in a career, especially when you've got one hundred million net worth. It's hard. I mean, did you did you see the mental aware on players, older players that had to overcome rehab.
Oh? Yeah, you know, it really was was grueling for those guys in it. Like you said, a lot of the financial stability is a big difference for those guys because they don't technically have to get off the couch anymore. You know, they they they had the flexibility to take
some time off and to let their body heal. In this situation, to me, what's really deflating, as much as the physical part would be to me a little bit about how he's going to deal with this mentally, because there was so much excitement being in New York getting a fresh start, you know, being on hard knocks and
all that was made of it. And you know, he looked like you rejuvenated guy on the hard knock to me, So now to see him take this step setback, and you know, who knows how it pans out for the team, but it's obviously you know, if Zach Wilson can give a gritty performance each week like he did tonight, that's outstanding. But is that going to be really good enough Colin to win enough games? Like really?
Three and Out is the podcast? Former NFL scout gun Middlecoff, and I feel this way about Daniel Jones. If everything's in place, he's got time to throw. The play calling works, he didn't have to. He's not sped up against the Vikings twice. No pass rush, he's not sped up. He can work. But the Cowboys D line just engulfed and overwhelmed the Giants O line after about that first drive. You could see the Giants in the first drive running right at the Cowboys to take away their edge, and
then eventually they fall behind. You have to throw. I thought the Giants O line, though it's young, could sustain some sort of you know, pocket shield for Daniel Jones. The Giants were completely overwhelmed up front, and Daniel Jones is just not the kind of player that can overcome that. He just can't.
It's funny, you know, you have these strong takes for six eight months of what you think is gonna happen, and then week one, you know, I thought the Giants might have a similar record last year nine or ten wins, but be much closer to the Eagles than the Cowboys, and tonight at home, the gap looked wider. Now.
One thought I had as that game, just separated by the snap was the Cowboys, and we'll get into the Niners a little bit, have a similarity in the sense they have a lot of high end players on defense. Dan Quinn is like a three or four million dollar a year defensive coordinator currently, and they have other guys mainly are in their prime right, and they dominate at the defensive line, and they have a ton of good DBAs where if you are a little off.
They can really expose you. I mean my take coming into the season, Colin, I don't know who. Did you pick the Eagles for the East? I picked the Cowboys, Just trying to mix it up a little bit. Yeah, you know, I think it might just come down to a field goal here or a fumble here between those two teams. I think the Cowboys, now, it's hard to judge Dak, he didn't have to do anything. Their defense is has a chance to be the best in the league. And anytime that's the case, I don't care what year.
If it's seventies or twenty twenty three, you've got a chance to win a lot of games.
Had a couple people at the gym come up to me and say, Hey, you doing sharp and square, And I said, it's sharp or square, not sharp and square, or I'm the or square. He's the sharp before the or square. It's Chad Milman's CEO Action Network. All Odds provided by DraftKings. All Right, I stunk last week but last year was the only time I've won in Week one in forever, So I'm ready to go bounce back week I'm gonna be the New York Giants of squares.
I am going to bounce back. Okay, first number and the number is telling me I'm on the wrong side. But I like Chicago BLUs two and a half anyway. Listen, Baker's a great story, but I think I get a little bit of a coach edge. I think Claypool may not play. I think Chicago really believes they can win this division. I think Tampa's going to figure out fairly quickly they are what they are. I think there's absolute urgency. I think the Bears at home were humiliated. I think
they'll be totally focused. If there's any rushing props for Justin Fields, take them. I think he's going to be able to kind of work this defense and move around a little. I'm gonna take Chicago plus two and a half. It feels like that's not what the Sharps want me to do, but I'm gonna do it anyway. Sharper Square, dude, You're misreading it entirely. The Sharps love this play, and they love that you're doing it. They've been calling me insaning make sure Colin takes the Bears at plus two
and a half. This game opened at four. It's been bet to two and a half by the wise guys. The public is on the Buccaneers and this is.
One of those. And there's a lot of this this week classic overreaction to what people saw in Week one and letting that play into their decision making for week two. And that's a mistake that a lot of people make. There's a stat I can give you right now. Since twenty twelve, teams that lost by double digits the Bears playing against teams that did not lose by double digits, so that team would have to have won the game
or lost by less than ten. That's the Buccaneers. The team that lost by double digits on the road since twenty twelve, twenty four to one against the spread. So there are two teams that fit that criteria this week. The Bears are one of them. And look, there was so much hype on the Bears before the season began, and there was no hype on the box. So naturally, with the way the Bears got beat and the way the Bucks won, there's going to be a little bit of a flip. This script is going to be flipped.
But look the Bears offense. They had twenty two first downs, they had more time of possession than the Packers. They have three toneovers and four sacks. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers defense gave up three hundred and forty four passing yards. They gave up six yards per play, not six yards per pass attempt, six yards per play and seven yards per pass attempt. So Minnesota had three turnovers, including Kirk in
the red zone late in the first half. That would have put them up seventeen to ten, and that would have been a different a different game. So I like what we're seeing here with the Bears as underdogs.
It's sharp.
I've played it, okay.
I don't like favorites much. I took one last week and got burned. I'll get to that in a second. But I do have a theory that if you have a capable quarterback and a good coach and are humiliated in a standalone game on TV, you'll empty the bag following week play with great emotion and focus. Giants, It's now minus four at DraftKings, Arizona. I like the Giants a lot sharper square.
Play it. Play it. Play it in your survivor pools. Don't waste your early season picks on the Bills or the Chief, if serve anyone else, play the Giants. I actually got this at five and feel like I got the worst of the number. I'm a little surprised it's moved to four, But this is one of those spots, right,
you're going to play the team that just got blown out. Look, Arizona, they didn't win that game so much as they didn't they didn't cover that game so much as Why by the way, I'm counting a cover for Arizona as a win. That's how that's how low the expectations were. But they did play a game in which the other team practically gave them the game. And so this is not going to be the same scenario. Brian Dayball is a much better coach. It's a coaching mismatch. Look, they stunk it up.
They played a team that was just much better at that moment, a really good defense. They didn't have the right game plan. You can come up with all the excuses whatever you want. At the end of the day, the scenario here is you take the Giants.
Okay, I don't love the number. I'd like it better at three. But I'm going to take Kansas City. Andy Rea historically off a buyer with extra time is money. They didn't have Travis Kelcey. He's the greatest receiving tight end ever. He'll get fifteen targets. This week. Jacksonville struggled mightily and won. So if they'd have lost it Indy right and being humiliated, I'd stay away. They were outplayed in one. Okay, Kansas City's defense, I don't know about
anybody else. They got a consistent pass rush without Chris Jones. And oh, by the way, the Lions O line is good, and they were in Jared Goff's face. I think this is one of these. I've seen these two teams play twice last year. The gap is bigger. It wasn't closed in one off season. I'm gonna take Kansas City minus three and a half and I think they win by a touchdown.
All right, So there's a couple of different scenarios here, And you're right about the Chiefs and you're right about the Lions, and that plays into a Lion Seahawks game, which I might try to convince you to bet. But with that game against the Lions, the Chiefs actually only gave up fourteen offensive points. Don't forget there was a pick six, right, No, right? And so here's where where sort of the sentiment and what you believe about a roster and what you as an analyst who was much
more sophisticated about football than you let people believe. Let's that play into Okay, this game opened at two and a half, and then it got to three, and now it's at three and a half. So the number has been moving against your decision right here. For me, once it got to three and a half, it was a pass. Like I didn't want to play Kansas City as more than a field goal favorite on the road because then you start getting into trends that go against Patrick Mahomes.
So the wise guys liked it at two and a half, they liked it, Okay, at three, it's a pass. At three and a.
Half, Okay, Well that's why we do this. I think this is a coaching mismatch, but I'm gonna do it anyway. I think Brandon Staley for the first time are criticizing you. The media in LA rushed him I'm going to take the Chargers minus three at Tennessee. Tannehill miss spots, didn't look good. Vrabel criticized him publicly. He's a much better coach than Brandon Staley. I can't believe this roster can go zero and to two. I can't believe it. Chargers minus three? What say you? Sharper square?
The first thing you said, it's a coaching mismatch, And so why would you lean into a coach who, in two seasons of coaching has not proven any ability to put his team in a position to win with the kinds of decisions that he makes. He has more talent at the offense on the offensive side of the ball. Colin, you preach this all the time. I listened to your fabulous radio show. One of your primary theories defensive coaches with offensive genius players is not a good match, right?
How many times have you said that? And so all of a sudden we're leaning into Brandon Staley on the road as a favorite. Again, it's a much better football coach against a defensive line that's good, fierce. Jeffrey Simmons is an All Pro caliber player, and Mike Rabel, by the way, one of the best underdog coaches in the NFL twenty four to nine and one as an underdog of three or more, including this past week against the Saints. There's a handful of coaches that every professional vetter is
thinking about when they are looking to bet. Mike Rabel, John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin, Andy Reid, Bill Belichick. Those are the guys that you want to be betting on as underdogs.
I'm disgusted with myself betting this. Washington plus three and a half at Denver. I had a executive, well a scout call me on Monday. He said, Colin, He goes, I know you like Russell. He's missing, He's there's wide open people here. These are good schemes, these are good plays. He can't see him. He's like, this offense is until they get Judy. There is no juice to this offense. The Raiders are not good, and the Raiders took the
lead and never looked back. Washington's defense is good. They're good. They're gonna keep it. All Washington games are gonna look the same. They're all gonna be awful. Television. Three and a half is too much. I gotta take Washington. Sharper Square well, look.
Where this game and the Colts Texans game are battling for their corner TV game, you know, the game at the sportsbook that they put on the corner because nobody really wants to watch it, but they gotta have every
game on. I agree with you about Russell Wilson. I watched that game and I was texting with a buddy and who's inside the NFL, and I was just like, Sean Payn's a genius, Like he was calling such good plays and they looked so much better, and it fell apart because Russell Wilson started to lose a little bit of steam, and so it's a very challenging game. I think that Washington's roster is not a good as the Las Vegas roster. I think that this is a huge
coaching mismatch. I think Jimmy g is better than Sam Howe, and I think that I would expect a different kind of scheme from Sean Payton now that he's seen what Russell can do over the course of a game when other teams are adjusting. Also, I'm still a big believer in Denver's defense. I think it's a really good defense. Washington, to me, was a terrible team. If Arizona has anything more serviceable than a quarterback who still did not know the names of his teammates because he had signed two
weeks earlier, they probably lose that game. So for me, this game is a pass like. I'm not interested. The line has moved in Denver's direction from three to three and a half. That's more of a wise guy play than a public play. But I like your sentiment. I like that you're thinking about betting ugly betting the NFL. Winning the NFL means betting bad quarterbacks. But here you got two bad quarterbacks and not a lot of edge.
All right, now, talk me into a game Detroit Seattle, go for it.
Look, this is the other game that fits that trend I mentioned before, which is twenty four to one against the spread for teams like Seattle when they are on the road coming off a double digit loss, playing a team that basically won or lost by less than ten the week before. On top of that, you're getting a team in the Lions that has so much hype into the season. They beat the super Bowl champs. They beat the super Bowl champs on the road opening game, prime time.
Seattle loses ugly, to the rams like this is an over hyped game. This is an inflation game in terms the line is higher than it should be. Like, you have to take Seattle here, There's just no question about it. You're gonna bet a quarterback that might make you uncomfortable. You're going to be upset that the tackles aren't playing. But the Troit's defense is just not as good as it should be for a team to be favored by
five and a half some places six. So you gotta suck it up and you gotta bet Seattle, all right.
Chad Millman, c CEO Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings. My friend, it's great to see a bad week for me, But you know what, Tom Brady twelve years, double digit picks, who cares LFG, Let's go.
You know what, it's the end of the season that matters, not the beginning of the season. And I say that as someone who like in my five picks that we talk about, I went two and three and like it happens, It's gonna happen all the time. But also you look at it, I like after that, I don't know if you ever do this, but like at the end of that day. The difference between one and four and two and three is everything, because two and three you can look at your picks and say, okay, I'm two and three.
But that Patriots game, like I analyzed that the right way. I would have been three and two not for some bad luck. So I felt better about myself.
Yeah, we'll try going on five. I couldn't even look myself in the mirror. It was awful. It was tough for five.
Did you not make any of the picks that we talked about.
I should have made the Cleveland bet.
I didn't.
I'm not betting. I'm I'm I'm just uh, listen, fairly bitter. It's not my personality. I bounced back. I had a cocktail Tuesday night.
I was good.
I had. I said the Jets with a better play, and I said the lines over the Chiefs. So I had. I had some stuff. I didn't include those, but I did have. I thought the Jets were a better play, and I thought the Lions were a better play.
Listen, that is one of your greatest traits. You don't wear it, you move on quickly.
I like that.
I don't wear it all right, buddy, good seeing you taught you
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