Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Matt Mosley on McCarthy Credit, Niners Matchup, Middlekauff on Dak Out Dueling Brady, Purdy’s ‘It’ + Divisional Round Best Bets

of the Colin Coward Podcast. Great great stuff this week. Matt Moseley really fantastic giving us insight behind the rope on Mike McCarthy that big win over the Bucks, plus the best parts of my converse sation with my buddy John Middlecoff, former NFL Scout three and out podcast on the win by the Niners Chad Millman as well are divisional round bets. But first my top takes of the week,

So I thought this was interesting. In my career, I've tried to never back management into a corner, but there have been as I have gained popularity, concessions companies have been willing to make if I want certain time off or a certain number of people on a staff. And the more popular I've become, generally in any business, the more leverage you have, and you know, companies will give me certain things. I don't ask for a ton. I'm not real high maintenance on this stuff. And it's understood

in a lot of entertainment businesses. And let's be honest, I'm not analogous to Tom Cruise, but Top Gun makes a billion four. There's concessions made Lebron James, Tom Brady. They're concessions made. But in order to get those, in any industry, you've got to deliver on the other end. This is what's interesting. So Aaron Rodgers wants concessions by the Green Bay Packers. He listed five offensive players, only one his elite that he wants the Packers to bring

back if he'll return. Alanzar, Randall Cobb, Mercedes Lewis, Robert Tyne in the tight end are not dynamic players. They're unrestricted free agents. So the packers will have to pay more than their worth to retain them. So the takeaway as well, you get Aaron Rodgers. So I went back with my staff and I said, what is the payoff? For Aaron. Let's go to Aaron Rodgers last ten what we would call big games, and we tried to as a staff be very fair. He had five this year.

The play in game with the Lions, Christmas Day at Miami, that Philadelphia game that was a standalone game, Cowboy game at Lambeau, and I think it was a Sunday night game against the Buffalo Bills. Those were the five big games. Now, he also lost to the Vikings in the opener. You could say the season openers a big game, but I don't really count that as a big game. That would benefit my argument, but I didn't do that. So in

those games he had two wins and three losses. Then we went the previous year and we counted the big games as the Niner game that he won during the regular season and played very well, the Division round Niners game he lost, and there was a Rams game Week twelve that was build as the big game on TV for Fox that he eventually won. We went to the previous year and the two games that felt big were the NFC Championship and that game against Brady down in

Tampa was the first time they'd met. Brady is a Buck and so we went and we build those as the ten biggest games, eight regular season, two playoff games, and the play in game for Detroit we think classifies. So Aaron wants all sorts of concessions. He wants five, four of which are mediocre offensive players to return. So what am I getting for that? Tom Cruise concessions. Top gun makes one point four billion lebron for years. Concessions end up in the finals. Miami made a lot of concessions,

got to the finals four straight years. So Aaron wants these concessions. Let's go to his last three years what we classify as the ten big games, and here's what you get. He's four and six, sixteen touchdowns, seven picks, averages two hundred thirty yards. Those are Matt Ryan numbers. Those aren't close to Mahomes, Alan Burrow, Herbert. They're not close. They're not close to the last five good games for Trevor Lawrence. Aaron wants these concessions. He's not delivering championship

level football. One of the reasons he's not as committed in the off season. Other reasons he's not willing to play with new teammates work out with them in the off season. But we thought this was incredibly fair. We went back as his staff and picked the ten big games. I'm talking not one o'clock windows. Mostly, we're talking against Brady Niners, playoffs Christmas Miami, by the way, trail big in that until TWA started throwing the picks two who

had a concussion late in the first half. So if you're gonna ask for concessions, you gotta deliver ratings, box office finals appearances. Aaron no longer is four and six, last ten games sixteen t seven picks two hundred thirty yards a game. That's not close to the top six quarterbacks in this league. So I saw where the Chargers decided to keep Brandon s Daily and instead fire their

offensive coordinator and their passing game coordinator. I rolled my eyes at it because seven of the eight remaining head coaches in the NFL playoffs, seven of eight are offensive coaches. Last year, all seven NFC teams that made the playoffs had offensive coaches. Folks, It's not an offensive coordinator issue for the Chargers. It's a defensive head coach issue. If you go look at the Chargers first and second half splits, they were a terrible second half team. Offensively and defensively.

What does that tell you? It tells you they have a young coach who is struggling once off the script, game time decisions, situational play calling. They're a bad second half offense. How they have Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, often Eckler, above average offensive line. I went and looked at the second half offensive numbers for the Chargers. Their bottom six in the league. The other five teams surrounding

them are all anemic at quarterback. Justin Herbert is the only top ten quarterback in the league that is in the bottom of second half offensive statistics. That's not your offensive coordinator, that's your coach. The only defensive coach left in the playoffs is Sean McDermott. He can't figure out the Bill's old line for five years. Their run game is not substantial outside of Josh Allen, and Allen has regressed as a quarterback since Brian dave All left. It's

a defensive organization and culture, I mean the Chargers. Sometimes you have to take a deep breath and look at how a business landscape is changing. Football now is rewarding offensive head coaches and offensive cultures. Look at the Patriots. Bill Belicheck feels out of touch. Bears defensive coach, last place, Washington defensive coach, last place, Jets defensive coach, last place, Houston defensive coach, last place, Chargers. You made a mistake.

You could have hired Brian Dable. You hired Brandon Staley. And my sources tell me at times he can be a notable. At times he can be stubborn. They basically gave him an ultimatum, make coaching changes or you're out. He made coaching changes, but I don't think in the end it will change anything. Bet the NFL Playoffs with fan Duel, where every play is a rush. This weekend fan Duels giving all customers a no sweat same game parlay during the divisional round doesn't matter if you're new

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for six seven three six nine In New York, tennessee Redline one one hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine tennessee visit one eight hundred Gambler dot in West Virginia. All right, I bring in my longtime friend Matt Moseley, co host of the Doomsday Podcast with Ed Werder. How is Ed? I haven't seen Ed in sometime. How is the old gent doing? Doing fine? Doing fine? Put in a full day of work on that playoff game, and certainly let me know about that was out there for

about twelve hours. So the man loves to get to a game early, stay late, and he was shutting it down with the Doomsday Podcast from the stadium there with the ship with a pirate ship in it last night at about one or two in the morning, he was podcasting, So he's a he's still getting napped. So the bad news, let's just get that out of the way, is the Niners were done Saturday afternoon. The Cowboys have almost a two and a half day preparation debit going into this game.

I bet they're not happy about it. No, and I don't think it'll happen again. I do think the league will address it. But everybody, including people who are not with us anymore, Lamar Hunt being one of them, are looking down and laughing at the Cowboys over this because he fought for years thinking they had a Thanksgiving, you know, the whole Thanksgiving and how that went, and how they got to be home every game on Thanksgiving. That was

a huge deal over the year. So some people think the Cowboys have been getting favors from the league for many, many years. So if one team needs to a franchise needs to suffer this fate, it should be the Dallas Cowboys. But I think in the future you won't see a team finish up more than forty eight hours before another team who's then coming to their place. I think the league will find a way not to have that happen again.

And I think it is somewhat of a factory and it provides it provides a built an excuse if the Cowboys lose to the Great Brock Party. One of the things about Dallas, you know, I said this today in defense of Mike McCarthy. This is a top five offense in the league, rebuilding the old line. Still don't have a clear number two. Hieron Smith out for most of the year. Dalton Schultzman's two games and really wasn't good until post Thanksgiving. All that said, Aaron Rodgers red zone poor,

Aaron Rodgers offense poor. That divorced the more and more you look at it. Mike went forward one with Cooper f and rush that. It's easy because Aaron's on every commercial. He's a star quarterback, he's an MVP to weigh in on that breakup and favor Aaron. But I look at this season for Mike. They're playing their best football now. Dalton Schultz is now a real factor. I didn't think

he was eight weeks ago. Do you think has there been anything that you, Matt, have changed your opinion on regarding McCarthy this year where you may have been a tad cynical and you've come to appreciate him. Yeah, I think I was more than a tad sit of cool. Colin. You're being kind to me to say just a tad cynical. I don't know if really I ever had the full

respect that I do now, and you mentioned it. The Cooper Rush aspect of this weighs heavy on Jerry, and it weighs out everybody, and a lot of lately people are trying to figure out, Okay, what was going on with Dak. I mean, what happened last night, with the way Dak played was the enormous story coming out of this game. And I do think Mike McCarthy one thing he did, and I think he did a pretty good job with aaron of this boy. He takes care of

his quarterbacks and he takes care of the relationship. And early on when Dak had some injuries and was coming back from some things, there's some stories about Mike McCarthy going over to his house and spending hours upon hours with him. So he's certainly, you know, it is funny. Sean Payton a guy you like a lot. I've pretty well over the years. He's a sexier choice. I mean, is he a better coach, Sure, sure he is, just

because he's a brighter, more innovative, offensive mine. But McCarthy has sort of a way with these players, and I don't know if we ever fully give him credit for that, but I thought you saw it with a Cooper Rush thing, because on this very podcast, when they opened with that awful loss a deck injury, he was already playing poorly before the injury. It looked like there was no hope for this team. So who else do you give a

credit for? I mean, you gotta give us some to Cooper Rush, maybe to Kellen Moore for maybe the way he called some of these games. But Mike sort of presided over all of that, you know, And I think that's I think the thing that's been tough for him over the years is, you know, not calling plays because a lot of these guys, they are a whole identity is tied up in that, and it's why sometimes we don't even know what the chiefs right. It's like wait,

who wait, who's calling plays? Its Andy is you know, is being amy? I mean, there's there's some debate because some of these head coaches have such a hard time giving that up. So there have been coaches for the Cowboys that have been told, okay, you're not doing anymore. Jason Garrett had taken away from him. McCarthy just said, you know what, this is what it requires of me to become the head coach there. I've got to give this up, and he's done a pretty good job with it.

And he's certainly you can't accuse the guy of micromanaging like you can, you know. I mean, he's he's got the laminated chart. He'd like to fold it over, but he's not even like think about that. Last night we talk about how great Dak was. How did he start that game? Two? Three and out? Stories oh for three. He looks shaky, Sandy looks jittery. To him, it's not going well. And I think Mike McCarthy's just kind of

like he's a stay the course kind of guy. And I think that's, you know, for now, it seems like what the Cowboys need. You know, there's always been turbulence associated coaching the Cowboys that other coaches don't face. Your owner goes public every week, you have more national TV games. Those are often game times are disrupted a lot of Sunday night, Monday night. It's a very you know, Jacksonville doesn't have to deal with that much. Dallas has to

deal with a seven to eight times a year. That's why there's now a limit on how many times you can play in primetime. It's the cowboy rule. So the Cowboys don't have to have a night game. I know when the Giants had Eli manning and we're pretty good for multiple stretches. I knew somebody inside the Giants he's like the organization hates these night games. We all get home at two. They're disruptive all week. So Mike hasn't done himself verse through the years. You know, he's just

you know, at the podium, he's pretty average. And I think, you know what, I think Mike deserves a little more respect. I guess that's my takeaway. Yeah, I think I think you're onto something. And where he'll ultimately get it is if he wins this game. Oh my next Sunday. Um. You know, I hear people say, and I even heard Troy say something to the effect of, you know, Dallas is only measured on Super Bowls. Well, yeah, because of

course Troy won three of those things. It's been so long, and you and I talked about this before you go back to the nineteen ninety five season. They that's not how people think around here anymore. Cowboys win that game on the road, and it is winnable. That is a winnable game. Like I know, Brock Purty's undefeated, but Brock Purty still a seventh round draft pick. Who's I mean in his second playoff game. I mean that we can't just core and ate him and go like it acts like.

I mean, is he surrounded by really good coaching and really good players. You bet he is. But the Cowboys have a guy with seven years experience twenty nine year old peak of his career, and the Cowboys have possibly one of the best schematic and one of the best defensive thinkers in the game on that side of the ball. I mean, if you want somebody to take on a rookie quarterback in disguising, I mean, all you have to do is look at last night. Tom Brady was just

like baffled. I mean, and we can blame it all whatever, but he blame it on the offix line. But something happened to cause him to just that that weird. I mean, think about it. Think of all the people calling that game last They were trying to give him an excuse. Was he wanting the receiver to come back? Was he trying to throw the ball out of the out of bounds? He threw some kind of crazy ball in the red zone, you know, and so I I think that's a huge

advantage for the Cowboys. Still as much as I like Rock Purty, and by the way, I've watched him a ton because I watched a lot of Big twelve football, so I have a sort of a body of work to but I can't because I've watched him so much, I can't buy into They're just so good they're gonna kind of carry Brock with them. I think dan Quinn will have something for him in a big way on Sunday afternoon. The line is surprisingly low Niners minus three and a half. That tells me, dan Quinn, Brock Purty

your theory. Vegas sees it that they think it's going to be lower scoring, so do I. Seattle's a bad defensive team. Dallas has some spectacular players. I still think they need another corner and that will be at some point exposed against Philadelphia or San Francisco. I think I think it has a twenty seven twenty field to it. What do you what do you think the game looks like? You know, with it being three and a half, I would lean toward betting the Cowboys getting those points. Um

I saw it open. I thought about four and a half and I was really thinking, Okay, I would lean that way. I agree. Um, I think it's gonna be interesting because the Cowboys at times have been susceptible to the run. You know, they've they've struggled with the group. The thing the Cowboys have, it's they've got a versatile group on the line. Two guys that were inactive last night, Bohannah and Neville Gallimore, are big, huge plugger types. Last night they got Hankins in there, and so that was

their big, huge guy. But the rest of the people they went with all thin, long pass rushers. Cowboys can go either way, and so I think what you'll see them do is really load up to stop that run game. I think the Asday thing about this, I think you maybe leaning the right way. I think it's a low storied game. I think it's rare that San Francisco finds somebody that will play as physical as they will. I don't normally think we think of the Cowboys like that.

I've heard you over the years say finesse, speed, all those kinds of things. The Cowboys team that showed up last night, yeah, was incredibly physical. Yes, and the safeties were hitting like crazy. Vander esh was a good edition. He came back for Majory. He helps in the run against the run as well, and I like, I mean, that's where Purdy's gonna have to watch it because they're gonna use Parsons. Quinn loves to do what he did

last night. Move him back off the line a little bit, sometimes get him outside, line him up, maybe in the middle standing. You never know where he's gonna be. And right now, he's the biggest defensive weapon in the NFL. He's there's just not there's not a game wrecker like him. There are people that may have more sex or may even put up bigger numbers, but there's no one. And they used to have somebody like that, DeMarcus ware. There's

no one there. They spend more time worrying about. And that's a great thing when you have somebody like that, and it's great for those other players. DeMarcus Lawrence, Dorrence Armstrong. I mean, think about we we kind of beat up on the Cowboys for not being able to land Randy Gregory in the offseason. What did Randy Gregory do this year for Denver? Nothing? He was hurt most of the time, and the Cowboys ended up so your your point earlier,

though it is the right one. It's a little scary at cornerback, Like it really comes down to um, you know, whether it be debot I you, I mean, you know how deep do they truly go? And you're Harrison of the receiving units cowboys, I will say, Gallup, who's not getting much separation, can make plays. So I mean, I do think. I do think he gives them something. He can beat people down the field. He's a straight line runner. I feel like CD can get the drops at times.

I think he's a pretty average one a stupendous two. I think Schultz's outstanding, and they have a one two punch. I think their offensive line and you gotta credit McCarthy on this, it is much better post Thanksgiving. It is a better offensive line. That's what it feels like to me, it to you? Does it? Yeah? It's gonna be interesting because you know, they had to make some changes last night. Peters came out of that game and they kicked Pollard Smith out. He's been good out there, and they had

to put McGovern out there. They had to put McGovern in at guard. I think that'll be fascinating to watch the other thing I would bring up is, and I've said this before yesterday's game, Pollard was going to be a huge key and it's like a real bell weather for this team is if he has seventy five or more rushing yards, they tend to perform so much better. And and what you have to watch in this game is what did what did Zeke end up for rush in this last game? It's like two point one. He's

been doing that for several weeks now. Now short yard, it's still good. He still go get you a yard. But when you find yourself after a game and you look at the stats and Zeke has taken up twelve to fifteen of your carries, you've probably made some mistakes. And I think Kellen called a really good game. But each time you run Zeke, you're taking about a twenty five yard opportunity away from your offense. Because again, Zeke does some good things, he brings some really good leadership.

But Pollard is your home run. And you heard him talking about it last night, and it's true. And plus if there's only a small hole, Powered is a tougher back than he's given credit for, so he's got great balance. We Powered I mean, you have to approach this game like this is our bell cow And but they'll treat Zeke like the ceremonial starter, which you better get. You better get pollered in there early. What is going on everybody? John Middlecoff here Three and Out podcast joined by Colin Coward,

Rocket and Rolling. Hopefully everyone's having a good night Monday night football. The divisional round is set. But before we dive in me and Colin make sure you subscribe like the Volumes YouTube page. Make sure you subscribe to the Three and Out podcast. I want to tell you about my friends at game Time. Game Time is the fastest growing ticket app and because of gay Time. When you download the app, just go to your app store type in the promo code John. That's John, get twenty dollars

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growing ticket app in America. Type in the promo code John John twenty dollars off. Very easy to do. Can't recommend enough game Time Do it right now? Okay, Colin. We now have what is it? Eight team set? We have the divisional round set. We had Monday night football, two big brands, a lot of pressure on the Cowboys, and you got to give the coaching staff and they'll start. I guess with Dak, who was you know, probably played

one of his better games of his career. Yeah. I thought that was as good a performance as Dak's ever had. My rule has always been a good quarterback has a lousy week, they'll bounce back. These are pro athletes. You don't become a pro I mean, Dak's never been a pro athlete because he has a beautiful arm, because he's the twitchiest this, or the most gifted that. He's a very driven, aspirational guy. He works really really hard that his craft and doesn't need you know, a self motivated guy.

And when you play really bad for the Cowboys or any big profile team, you almost always bounce back. So I like Dallas tonight. I thought Dak would play really well. I thought he had a drive. May have been at the end. I'm looking at my notes here, can't eleven straight complations. At one point I thought he kind of gave his body up a couple of times. Tonight felt like like Dak really understood it was big. Yeah, like the opposite of Kirk Cousins, who I felt even yesterday.

You know, underneath throws, Dak was running out there, throll going head first, jumping into defenders. It was like Dak really understood what it meant for him, the team, the Cowboys, and I thought he was terrific. I really thought Dak was as good as I've seen him as a pro. Yeah. I think sometimes him and Cousins get lumped in. You know, they're kind of that second tier guy. Statistics sometimes parallel each other. But when you saw tonight, they get Dak

on the move. Cousins doesn't have that in the bag. I mean one of the reasons Dak. You know, he wasn't a great passer in college. It was athletic ability, and I think ever since the ankle injury, you get him on the move. I watched tonight thinking, you know this is that player is a problem for the forty nine ers. If he's gonna play at that level on the move, he's not. He's ever gonna be Peyton Manning

and Tom Brady from the pocket. But if you can mix up the play action stuff, obviously the play action touchdown, he has the elements to his game that when you ask him to throw at forty plus times from the pocket, that's when he gets in trouble. Yeah, I think Dallas Dallas is an interesting matchup. They can put pressure on Purty. The weakness of the Niners tends to be their old line, especially the center right, so I think you can move Micah round DeMarcus Lawrence. I think they can create a

little discomfort for the forty nine ers. You know Dallas. Now, Dallas tonight played virtually flawless, So let's expect Dallas to not play as well next week. I mean, that's kind of They're a highly emotional team. Many of their best players Trayvon dig Ceedee, Lamb, Micah Parsons are very young players. They tend to be emotional, so they're a little hot and cold. They'll probably pull back next week. I expect the Niners to win. But I will say this. I

talked about this on my show today. Mike McCarthy took one hundred percent of the pr beating in the divorce with Aaron Rodgers. Aaron three straight years losing at Lambeau, outplayed by an old Tom Goff and Garoppolo in the fourth quarter, Mike McCarthy with a nearly flawless game plan tonight. I'm not saying Mike McCarthy didn't shouldn't shoulder some of the blame with Aaron Rodgers, but Matt Lafleur hasn't solved kind of the fourth quarter, Aaron Rodgers, hasn't solved the

playoff disappointment Aaron Rodgers. And here's McCarthy four and one with Cooper Rush, sixty five percent winner with Dak Prescott. We got to give Mike McCarthy a little respect like that was a hell of a performance tonight before we dive into a couple other things. Obviously, Tom I've been saying for a while he's a shell of himself, not from his inability to throw right Breeze couldn't throw, Ben couldn't throw, Peyton couldn't throw. At the end Tom could

still throw. I mean, hell, right until the end of that game he was you can see the arm strength. Yes, he wants no part of being hit. I don't blame him. He's forty five years old. I bet you go down ski slopes you know, yesterday differently than you would have thirty years ago. Right, You just there's a risk factor

at his age. Makes no sense. But he can't play quarterback at a high level if he's not willing to stay in there because he's never been able to move, and that was always kind of a point of differentiation for him. He would stay in there and throw the dart at the last second, right, and now he just won't. And let's face it, no matter any of the teams that have options that no team has the mid nineties

Cowboys offensive line. So he's gonna get hit. That's part of the sport right now, because well, offensive lines aren't that great. So I mean, what's he gonna do. Miami feels like the fit to me because that's a distribution offense with a lot of good weapons. But I was texting a friend tonight and I said, you know, Tom needs to now cherry picked teams without holes. Offensively, he no longer elevates others, right, Whereas like when he went to Tampa, get me Tristan worse, get me Lenny, playoff

Lenny bring Gronk, get me a bat. The reality with Tom brock Purty costs nothing for four years, He's more, He's in his prime. Tom's not, he's more Mobile's um now he's gaining playoff experience. Like this idea that San Francisco is going to make a move on him. They got Trey Lance brock Purty and they're not paying either one of them anything. If you want to keep this defense, if you want to keep both those linebackers, if you want to keep all those d linemen, you got to

save somewhere. And you know, I think, I think to your point, Brady now no longer elevates. He needs protection. You can't have a bad right tackle with Tom. You can't look at their offense in the last three months. You have to have a run game, the Mahomes Burrow, Alan Herbert Um. I mean, if you go look at statistically, the Chargers don't do anything well and they took a twenty seven nothing lead in a playoff game on the road.

Like so I think I think Miami looks like a good fit for Tom in terms of they kind of have offensively, they kind of have all the pieces, a lot of bubble screen guys. One over the top guy, tight end that one. And it's the San Francisco system. Yeah, and San Francisco needs a quarterback that's upright and healthy. Seventeen eighteen weeks a year. I gotta quote for you because I know you love the wiring of the quarterbacks.

I saw Kittle talk to Peter King and on Purdy and he said failure is a big part of learning to play quarterback in the NFL. And Brock had success and failure in college, so nothing is really unknown to him. Since he's got here, he understands. And you see some of these quarterbacks that get to the NFL and have a lot of success. Patrick Mahomes failed a lot in college, Josh Allen up and down roller coaster in college. Joe

Burrow had to leave a college. Right. These guys aren't just going to Alabama Ohio State and winning it all and just getting the job from the jump, go through ups and downs. Because I what he's obviously is unprecedented, But when you really dive in and look beside his size, all big twelve guy, first team twice, second team or is sophomore year, so a lot of success and it didn't all go perfect. Had a great year and then

a senior year didn't go as well. So mentally you watch him talk, you go, god, this guy kind of feels like he talks like a quarterback, like he's not it's not too big for him. Well, the thing I really noticed John the not two things that jump out, and this is first of all, tells you how good Kyle Shanahan is hit the whole fifth round, Jennings sixth round, Elijah Mitchell sixth round, pretty seventh round. Name another offense in the league that has this many late round like

highly productive players. Kyle's brilliant. That's first thing this system can take guy. Now Kittle would have starred anywhere. I don't think the old guys would. The second thing is Matt Campbell's a very good football coach at Iowa State. If Harball left, he would be a finalist for Michigan. They were very good with Purdy he left, They were awful this year a timeout, so they were recruiting on the success with Purdy. The recruiting has gone up. Campbell's coach.

The Big twelve was not very good, and I always stay it was awful. Maybe Brock Purdy is Romo or Kurt Warner. He was just either under scouted or overlooked that Like when I watched him, the one thing that jumps out to me he is his quick decision making is exceptional. Like he dirted that ball yesterday when the play blew up and he just dirted it. He you know, he's very good at like moving out of the pocket and re establishing his feet and his shoulders, like he's

just mechanically. When I read the scouting on him, and you're a former NFL scout, it was he was sloppy and erratic. I think some of it is Kyle's coach, some of it out of him. Yeah, he looks really his feet are good. His decision making, you know, he straightens himself out. He goes from sideways quick to the feet. Some of this is Kyle. We gotta give Kyle a lot of credit. Yeah, I mean, and I think he has some natural instincts and he's a much better athlete.

You know, his ten time, the ten yard split in the forty is the same as Christian McCaffrey's and Pete said after the game, he said, you know, I didn't realize he was this mobile. I looked over there. I thought it was fran Tarkington runner around. I mean they couldn't. I mean they were chasing them all. Now, the Cowboys Micah probably does catch him, so he's got to be but he has a very good understanding of his speed relative to the guy chasing him. And that's something that

you can only learn. You know, Trey Lance, for an athlete, didn't play very fast, and in fairness to him, how woody he played one season at a small school. Perties used to see an NFL guy's chase him. That's a really good point. I you know, I'm gonna write that down. That's a very good point. I heard the same thing about Trey Lance, that he's a power runner, more cam than Lamar, and that Pretty is a little bit more twitchy than try. Pray's big, strong power arm. He's actually

kind of the opposite of Pretty. Where Brock is accurate twitchy, um quick, Pray is a power arm. His football his football smarts, I mean, to have this offense down like he does is in Saint Matt Ryan said it took him a year to figure it out. This guy's in his rookie season. It's it's it's pretty crazy to watch last, but not least, the day ball Daniel Jones. What he's done with this quarterback, to me, has a lot of similarities what Jim Harbaught did in twenty eleven with Alex Smith.

You know a high pick who's probably not as talented as the elite guys, but clearly has a lot going for him. You know, Duke guy, Utah guy, smart, big can move what he's got going on with Daniel Jones. Obviously, Minnesota's defense sucks, but just throughout this season, it's spend He's worth his weight in gold to the Giants immediately. Just doing that. I think the Alex Smith comps really smart. I think Daniel Jones is a little bit better armed too.

If you watch what they did do him so over the first let's say, until Thanksgiving, they pulled down the mistakes. They slightly elevated his completion percentage. This is what he did with Josh Allen. They eliminate the mistakes, They give him some easy lay up throws, take some risk out of it. With Daniel now Daniel's not Josh Allen athletically, but what they did was, I mean, Daniel led the NFL like in quarterback fumbles. The first couple of years,

he was a mess. No, he was turning the ball over. Not reduced that, and then a little more accurate. And then after Thanksgiving a few weeks after it, then they kind of let him loose. Okay, we're gonna go from twenty four to twenty eight. They let him loose, and they did it against the Vikings the first game. Obviously, Dabel looks at the film and says, this defense, I can let him lose. And they did it again. So

this is what worries me about Daniel. He's really his two best games of the year arguably were against the Vikings. He had a good game against the Lions. But Carolina ate him up, Dallas ate him up twice, Philadelphia ate him up once, ate him up once. I think Daniel's limited. I think we're going crazy right now. I think what you do if you're the Giants, they got to get a tight end, a receiver, probably a corner. I wouldn't

be I don't think it's crazy. This sounds nuts. Fifth sixth round draft another quarterback, just I think or your franchise tag him John that's more than you want to pay him. But they don't have a ton of huge contracts, right, so say Quon Dexter Lawrence. But they don't have a lot of big contracts. We're gonna rebuild this offensive line. Both their tackles now, Evan Neil and Thomas are you know, cheap. They're gonna They're gonna draft receivers and tight ends. So

this offense outside of Barkley is not very expensive. And he but he's a free agent, and it's hard. What do you do with running backs, you know, like giving them long term contracts. But dammy, I think you have to keep him because of Daniel's little I think you have to. All right, I had a winning week. I went three and two thanks to the Jags, Ravens, and Cowboys. Chad Milman's CCO Action Network All odds provided by Fan Duel I said last week, I will not be mocked

or ridiculed. I'd loved Dallas. I think sometimes you have to be honest about what a team is. Tampa was eight nine sort of what they are, and it was unveiled. So this week we've got four games, and I feel there's always whenever you go into these big games, I try to simplify everything. What are these teams at this point and what are they not? So one of my I don't like big favorites, you know this chat, But Kansas City minus eight and a half is my play.

Andy reidoff a bye is the greatest NFL coach ever. They met in the first matchup, and as Greg Kosell pointed out to me, there are some Jacksonville personnel disadvantages on defense here they probably won't be able to overcome. They're still in a rebuild. I argue they're a year ahead of schedule. Jacksonville's off their biggest franchise winning years. This is still a quarterback with less than you know, forty starts. This is a lot to ask for the Jags.

I like the Chiefs by ten or more. Sharper square. So it's square, but not like egregiously square. It's square because there is so much data for trends, so much analysis broadly in this situation for number one seeds underperforming against the market, and for the Chiefs specifically underperforming against the market when they are really big favorites. So That's why what's really interesting, and we're going to get through this.

With all the games today, there are very specific play the trends sides and play the matchup sides, and so with this one, the Wise guys are playing the trends. Agreed. Jackonsville's past defense is not very good, but the Chiefs are not nearly as explosive as they were with Tyreek Hill. They tend to play ball control when they get a lead. And ball control for the Chiefs doesn't mean they're just

running it fifty times. It means shorter passes, it means a little bit more conservative on the play calling, not the sort of sling it like Patrick Mahomes normally does. So I think that you're starting to see the Wise guys really like the Jaguars. Here. A couple other trends that you should think about is that in the past twenty years, number one seeds are thirteen twenty five and one against the spread in this round, and when they're favored by less than ten points, they're eight twenty two

and one. So that hits the button for two number one seeds this weekend. All right, Hey, listen, Miami kept it close with Buffalo with Skyler Thompson. So that is that was a little bit of a last two times Miami played them, I thought Mike McDaniel out Coach McDermott. Get to that in a second. So Giants plus seven and a half at Philly is the side for me. I worry about Jalen Hurts one hundred percent held. I

worry of some of its inactivity. I worry about a team that's become increasingly injured and turnover prone in the last two months of the season. The Giants have a way they have to play, but with Daniel Jones now running the football more, they're a little better third down team. They can play keep away a little better. Now that said, Minnesota's awful and Daniel jones two best games were against

the Vikings, so let's slow down. I like Philly to win, but in a division rivalry game, Philadelphia was not playing great at the end of the year. I think the buye does them no favors here. I'm going to take the seven and a half sharper square colin. I normally say when I don't have a consensus that it is completely split. What I will say this time is that there has been really smart money at big, big wagers on the Eagles and really really smart money at big

big wagers on the Giants. And this is where covering sports betting gets the most fascinating. Games like these. We just talked about trends versus matchups. We talked about public often, we talk about being on the public side, fading the public at being against the public. Right now, the Giants are a very very public team. They did exactly what you just said against the Eagles. They had ten or eleven wins in one score games. They were a covering machine.

The public is down on the Eagles right now. They are not even the favorite to win the Super Bowl from the NFC, that is the brock Purty led Niners. So what you're doing if you like the Eagles, you're actually fading the public right now because the Giants are a public dog. And where this gets really really interesting, really interesting. You are seeing massive amounts of money and massive amounts of tickets coming in on the Giants. And this line has been sitting at seven and a half

since Monday, so we're now with Thursday. You get a massive amount of money on one side, and bookmakers usually move the line. They haven't moved the line because they're

also getting significant wise guy play on the Eagles. I will tell you, as we often talk about the wise guy calls that we get for the favorites podcast Call of Sharp Calls completely split on this, but we do go ahead and decide to make taking the Eagles at seven and a half are big balls better the week because we like the matchup for the Eagles on the field better. We think they're a better team. Jalen Hurt Jordan Davis on the field at the same time, have

not lost once this year. If we did not have the public situation, if the Eagles hadn't been fading at the end of the year when Jalen Hurts was hurt, it'd probably be ten point favorites. It's a tough one, though, Colin. The world is divided. This is splitting the world. This and the Death Sailing are splitting the world in two Okay, this one. I have no idea. I'm going to take the Bengals up to five and a half foun duel odds if they I've said this today on the show,

and I'll get pushed back. I'm sir sure on social media. If the on line was healthy for Cincinnati. I think they'd blow out Buffalo. I think they're a significantly better situational team. I think they're more balanced offensively. They're not actually as beholden to Joe Burrow as the Bill's offense is now to Josh Allen. Greg ko Sell said it today. Take out Allen and Stefon Diggs. Buffalo's offense personnel is just not that talented, and you see it on film.

Buffalo is mistake prone. But they played very poorly against Miami. Sean Payton told me the best weeks to be a coach when you'll win and play like shit because you can ride those players all week. I think Buffalo is gonna play a lot better. Bengals are missing three offensive linemen. The five and a half is a lot to give Burrow, who's an excellent road quarterback, So I probably pay play Cincinnati with no conviction at all. I think Buffalo rebounds

and plays well. I'll take the Bengals and the point sharper square. So flip around everything you just said and don't be a square and take the Bills. Because if to say that, if the Bengals were not missing three offensive linemen, would be like saying if I had scored a hundred points in a game in Hershey, Pennsylvania, I'd be an NBA legend. That's how sort of fantastical that kind of if. Then statement is okay, they don't have the three linemen, and we saw what happened to the

Bengals when they were missing fields. The Ravens team that not even downfield. Joe Burrow can't even drop back like this, second he drops back, someone is in his lap. And the Ravens were doing that with a lot of heavy, heavy blitzing and pass rushing. The Bills have a very deep defensive line. They're a top ten pressure rate defensive

line without blitzing. And you make the points about playing badly, right, So let's look at two teams that did not play well in the opening round of the playoffs that were playing against backup quarterbacks. Buffalo Bills played Skylar Thompson. They played terrible, They had bad, really bad breaks. They still kind of won that game handily, right, The score was closer than it appeared in the fourth quarter. The Bengals played a backup quarterback, they gained two hundred and thirty

four yards on offense, and they won the game. On a lucky ninety eight yard fumble recovery by a defensive linement, not because their offense did anything special and Joe Burrow did anything special. So this game opened at six and a half, it got bet down to three and a half, it hit three and a half, and the wise guy started pummeling it. Three and a half, four, four and a half, five, five and a half. I would tell anybody bet the Bills at five and a half. If

he gets to six, you walk away. Maybe you take a piece of the Bengals. But when you get from say four and a half to five and a half, you're kind of in these dead numbers, right. The games really don't land. It's either going to land on six or it might land on four. So I say you take you take the five and a half with the Bills. I hate all my picks. I hope I convinced you of that. I really do this one. So you can't

the offensive line thing, you cannot. You cannot discount that it's massive well, and also a huge component of burrows greatness is the sneaky deep ball. He's deadly accurate fifteen yards in yet he's got a tony romo. He loves to let it rip sometimes in a double coverage and he's really successful. You just took that out. They become much easier to defend, or a nibble team because when you're missing three offensive lineman, the deep, the vertical passes out,

so they become a very safe offense. I don't think you can go to Buffalo, Okay, So from time to time I admit this. I actually admitted a lot is that my wife's an artist and so she sees things I don't. And sometimes I'll see a number and go, well, somebody knows something I don't. I guess the numbers before they come out, and if there's a big variance and it's about once a week or once every other week, I'm like, wow, that's a big variance. Vegas knows something

I don't know. So the Cowboys have a forty eight hour minimum preparation deficit. They didn't get home until two to three in the morning on Tuesday. The Niners game was over Saturday afternoon. Also short week. Facing now the most physical team in the league. It's not like it's a finesse team. Like I talked to Gerald McCoy about this and he said, forget the prep time. Is that body going to be ready for San Francisco for three hours? They are just it is sumo wrestling. It is just

contact and bounding. And my guest on the number was five and a half and it came in at three and a half. I thought I thought at five and a half it was safe at home. Two day prep advantage. Smartest offensive coach in a game in which Seattle is not physical. They've tossed him around. So it tells me the game's going to be closer. Vegas as smarter than I am, so I'd take the Cowboys and the points. And I hate it. Sharper square, you are. This is the sharpest thing you've ever said as a as a

sports analyst talking about betting. You've said many many other sharp things in the context of your life, but in this particular context, this is the sharpest thing you've ever said. It's there. It's fishy, man. The game actually opened at four and a half, got that down to four, got bet down to three and a half. Somebody took a little bit of money on the Niners at three and

a half. But this is a pros Joe's game. Like, majority of the tickets on the Niners majority on the money on the Cowboys right now, And there's a really

interesting narrative taking place in the betting world. And this is why I love covering the betting world because and why I always have there is a conversation, a shadow conversation happening amongst millions and millions of betters that influences billions of dollars in markets right But it's an entirely different narrative than what is happening in sort of the general sports debate space when people are analyzing these games.

The narrative right now is that if you look back, who have the Niners played, and when they have played those teams, has their defense been not as good as we thought? And so Brock Purdy's been winning all of these games against quarterbacks who a lot of quarterbacks might be able to beat if they have Kyle Shanahan as their play caller and their scheme designer. And meanwhile, the defense terrible first half against Geno Smith, terrible second half

against the Raiders. You're starting to see a lot of cracks. That is a narrative that has taken place in the betting community right now with the Niners defense, and so I have been shocked to hear about the Cowboy love this week, because I mean especially me. I was so anti Cowboys last week, sadly, but this week the wise guys are on the Cowboys. It was a stunner for me. I hate all my picks. I've never said that. I hate everything every week at this time of year, Colin,

there's nothing to love. You're grinding it out, You're hanging on by figuringails, just hoping, dear God, can we get to the Super Bowl. I mean, I thought the Chiefs, I just could be Chiefs was so sharp. I was going to call my pick cheddar. It was so good, And now I wouldn't better mettle on that thing. So what's interesting about that is, I would say of the of the sharp plays, that's the one that I think

people are most skeptical about. What is starting to get some plays the under in that game Andy Reid at Arrowhead in his career, the unders are about eight percent when he is a seven point favorite or more. That climbs to seventy percent. So the unders at fifty three could go down to fifty two and a half. So there's a lot of conversation about that. But that kind of game script. If it's an under plays to the

strength of Jacksonville, let's try keeping it close. I mean it's hard to give up eight and a half the score. If they toted up at fifty two, that's a lot of points. Yeah, it's a lot of points. It's a lot of points. Betting is hard. I hit. Everybody can do it. Listen to this Millman. Fifty five percent in the year, so my blazing five is done. So now I only have four games, so yep, so fifty five percent on the year, fifty five and a half percent.

Always I have always said fifty six is my goal, fifty six fifty six and a half, because you could be a pro better at fifty six. I am not, but I feel good. Last year was my worst year. It was the COVID year. I couldn't figure. I had no rhythm all year. So I ended up last two weeks three in two, fifty five and a half. I like that. Like it. If you could grind out three in two every single week, yeah, you're professional better. That's

that's the goal. Right when we did the you know Colin, when Simon Hunter and I would go through our five best picks every week, on the favorite podcast Our Goal every week three and two, three and two, three and two, three and two, Because look at that, you go three and two over eighteen weeks. You end the year nearly twenty games over five hundred. If you're like, who's going to walk away saying I just went twenty games over five hundred betting NFL and if you're betting, the same

number of dollars, and dollars equates to units. Whatever you uni size. For you, a unit size might be a million dollars a game. For me, it's like, you know, maybe ten bucks a game, but a unit size, I'm up twenty units at the end of the year. That's fantastic. So yeah, I always look at a hundred bucks a game because if I win it, I take I take the little girl out for a snappy to key, a shot or two. Yeah, and some Mexican food. Yeah, leave

a tip. That's how I look at it. Free dinner with my beautiful redhead, my smart, beautiful, talented, red headed wife. That's the way to go. That's totally the way to go. I want to talk about the Ravens for one second, because you were on him, I was on them. That was a crazy game last week because it was six and a half, then seven, seven and a half, eight

and a half. It was a sweat. Man, they should have won that game, oh, because it's probably I think fans sometimes understand this, but there argue there was a fourteen point play, yeah in that game, and I think about that one play, fourteen point swing on the sneak, and so when we want now, usually guys complain about that when they lose. So I won that bet and lost a fourteen point swing. Yeah, so you know it's the right side when you lose the two touchdown swing.

And I I felt to the very end, I'm like I knew I was on the right side. Yes, it was funny. When the Chargers led big at half. My takeaway was this is the Chargers. They're going to get with a defensive coach squirrely in the second half. And I was sitting with a buddy and I said, I don't know who's gonna win. I think the Chargers will. I said, you watched this thing with three minutes to go. He was a Charger fan. I said you better watch this. I said, this thing's gonna get because you know they

want to get on that flight and go home. You do not want to be in a losing flight. They're gonna take no big chances. And by the way, Jacksonville is pretty good coming from behind. They really are. If they throw nine straight times with Trevor and Doug Peterson, they're not bad at that. That's kind of a comfort level to them. Look, we talked about this in the podcast. We liked the Jags, and we liked the Jags because of the coaching mismatch, and that's what it came down to.

We said specifically, I will not bet on Brandon Staley as a favorite on the road against Doug Peterson. People will try to categorize them because they both are risk taking coaches. Doug Peterson is risks taking in a very strategic way. Brandon Staley is okay with his offensive coordinator throwing the ball up twenty seven nothing in the second half. That's not risk taking. That's just bad decision making completely. And I will say one more thing, one more thing

to back up the Cincinnati play. You know, we will do these luck rankings every week right where we're aggregating all this different data and it basically says this is what should have happened the game, and it predicts regression the following week. It tells you who's overvalued who's undervalued. In a game last week, the luckiest team in the

league Cincinnati Bengals. If you played that game with the plays that and they happened as they were expected to happen, meaning there's not a fumble recovery for ninety eight yards, Baltimore is expected to win that game. Twenty two fourteen. I don't tell you we're on the Bills. It's the last word. I think. Yeah, I think Bills and Cowboys. I can live with Giants. I feel like crap Chiefs is ridiculous. Now, like I'm gonna bet the Eagles and it makes me sick to my stomach. I've bet the Cowboys.

I'm sick to my stomach. I bet the Jaguars. I'm sick to my stomach. The only one I feel good about it is the Bills. So you know what that means. Bills are the only ones going to lose the volume. Make sure to check out the dram On Green Show. I brought Draymond Green into the volume because one of the more entered hating voices in sports. Unique perspective understands Behind the Rope also chops up with guests like Gary Peyton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download The Draymond Green

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