Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Harbaugh Sends A Message, Sean Payton Has “Fixed” The Broncos, Lamar Jackson’s Accuracy, Lions Legit, Sharp or Square - podcast episode cover

Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Harbaugh Sends A Message, Sean Payton Has “Fixed” The Broncos, Lamar Jackson’s Accuracy, Lions Legit, Sharp or Square

Nov 18, 202340 min
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Episode description

Colin’s top takes of the week! 

Colin explains that Michigan and Jim Harbaugh were sending a message with HOW they won over Penn State (1:50). He points to multiple reasons that prove that Sean Payton has fixed the Denver Broncos (7:00) and that Lamar Jackson’s most “WOW” trait is not his athleticism (10:45).

John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out” stops by to weigh in on another disastrous defensive performance for the Chargers and the Lions being legitimate contenders to win the NFC (18:33). They also contrast and compare the start of Bryce Young and CJ Stroud’s careers and why Stroud is looking like a superstar while Bryce looks like a bust (26:30)

 Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, stops by for a round of “Sharp or Square,” where they provide the sharpest betting advice for the Week 11 NFL slate.

34:30 - Bears vs Lions

35:56 - Broncos vs Vikings

38:54 - Bills vs Jets

41:03 - Eagles vs Chiefs

42:33- Dolphins vs Raiders

 

#Volume #Herd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

The volume. This week on Prime Cutch Chad Millman, Sharper Square, John Middlkoff on Brandon Staley's big flaw Are the Lions legit NFC contenders and my top takes of the week Jim Harbaugh and he's done this in his entire career, will send messages and I know he burns hot. I know he's not perfect. I know he wears people out. I have said, everybody speeds on the four or five in Los Angeles. You don't want to go ninety sunglasses in a maserati taunting law enforcement. Did Michigan go over

the top? Appear so? But you can't convince me a nineteen ninety four rule that none of you knew is suddenly embezzlement and forfeit wins and fire the coach. The other thing that jumped out to me is find me the great college football coaches that have been and pristine. Want to go back and look at some of the methods of Bear Bryant or Barry Switzer or would he Hayes Jimmy Johnson was polarizing Blunkeye fans, Urban Meyer, really great coach Nick Saban. They wear people out, they're tough.

I mean Pete Carroll one of the great college football coaches. Ever when he left there was all sorts of NCUBA issues around the program. So I'm not looking for pristine Okay. In the NFL, coaches have to deal with wacko, impulsive, ego infested owners. And in college football you got to deal with needy donors Los Angeles phone book, thick, nc doublea handbook. You have to deal with seventeen hours of practice.

Kids are emotional, They come from all different backgrounds. I think Jim Harball, you see his coaches crying on the sideline in riches. Coaches in which is players elevates young people's lives, and I think that's such an important part of college football, coaching, basketball, men's, women's, whatever, it is enriching their lives. But if you're looking for pristine, wrong business. Our churches aren't pristine, Okay. Wall Street's not, Silicon Valley's not.

College sports is not a lot of handouts, Folks. For years and years they were paying players. Now they are legally right. That's why it's so balanced now because not just the SEC is paying players. The idea that Jim Harbaugh is the bad guy in all this, all of this is laughable to me. And I also thought about this. The Big Ten sees itself as like, you know, either the most important conference. Certainly, I'd argue it is because it's located right in the middle of the country, massive

tradition filled universities, Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin. But it's really become a two team conference. Penn State doesn't win these kind of games. It's Michigan and Ohio State.

And I think Big Ten fans think by adding Michigan, Washington, Oregon, USCUCLA, they look at the South California schools and then they look at Washington and Oregon is sort of like Oregon plus Michigan State ish plus no. Right now, Washington and Oregon have as good at coaches as maybe they've ever had, and they are Ohio State. You're adding two Ohio states to the conference. I don't think Big Ten fans get this.

Every time Washington has had an elite coach, Don James National title, Rick neuheizel one Rose Bulls, Chris Peterson got to the playoff, Caitlin de Bores. When's the last time they lost on like a sixteen to seventeen game winning

street same for Oregon since Phil Knight got involved. Mike Bolotti with Jeff Headford number two in the country, Mike Bolotti with Chip Kelly blewe people out Chip Kelly, Mark Helfridge get to a Natty, and right now with Dan Lanning, I think there's an argument that Oregon's the second team in the country to Michigan. They're in that Georgia, Alabama, Oregon Texas class. In my opinion, i'd take him against Texas and Alabama, not sure what against Georgia, but it

would be close. So the Big Ten. Maybe it's the perfect time for Jim Harbaugh exit if he wins a national championship or even if he doesn't. But the truth is for him to continue to win when he's not on the sidelines. It shows the formidable culture that he's built. Running and just running in the second half, to me, was a sign to the conference that we will do it our way, that Michigan football, power football, regardless of I'm on the sidelines, will prevail. I wish Maryland and

Ohio State the best of luck. But listen, man, if you're looking for pristine, you gotta be kidding yourself. I mean Buckeye fans slow down on Pristine, Woody Hayes smacking a player during a game, love Urbinmeier, all sorts of noise, Urban was there, Jim Harball's not the bad guy. Hey, we all make mistakes again. Jimmy Johnson polarizing, Barry Switzer, Pete Carroll, lou Holts. These are not These are not perfect jobs or perfect men. But I loved, I loved.

I don't generally root in these games. I just like a good TV product. I loved not only that Michigan won Hardball one, but how they won. I think what you're seeing with Denver is a really well coached team. As Sean Payton was asked to fix Russell, he has I mean Russell Tonight twenty four to twenty nine, couple of touchdowns, multiple laterals, couple of huge long drives late in the game. You got to give Russell Wilson credit

for that. They don't have a star receiver, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Judy Mims, no stars, tight ends, Okay, no stars. You know a couple of nice running backs. Williams I think is a good young running back off an injury. No stars, p Ryan good backup. There's no real stars on the offense, and Russell Wilson's probably about seventy five to eighty percent of what he was. Didn't quite have the speed, the twitchiness or the juice, but he still makes really good decisions. He doesn't make a lot of

big mistakes. He plays with himself. Sean Payton has centered the ship. He was asked to fix Russell Wilson. He has. I think this is about what Russell Wilson is now if they had an elite deep threat. I think Jerry Judy's always been disappointing, very fast. The old line's not great, so Russell's not going to have very rarely a lot of time to throw. Tonight he had a nineteen yard

completion to Jerry Judy on that play. He had great protection by and large, though Russell is getting the ball out very quickly because it's not a great offensive line. Mcglinchy's been kind of not a bust, but he's been in suboptimal acquisition at right tackle. So but I mean, Russell Wilson had thirty six thirty seven minutes time of possession. Sean Peyton has fixed Russell Wilson to the level he can be fixed relative to what he has to work with the defense. It was a mess early. They moved

off a couple of older players, one Randy Gregory. They're playing younger players. It's not a great unit, but they keep things in front of them, don't let cheap touchdowns over the top. They don't make a ton of mistakes. They had a lot of penallies tonight, but not a lot of turnovers. Buffalo was a mess meanwhile, and so I think Peyton was in charge of fix the culture, fix the quarterback, get the roster as right as you possibly can. And I think he's done it.

Speaker 2

I think he's done it.

Speaker 1

I mean, the Chargers are four and five, the Broncos are four and five. What did Brandon Staley have to fix? Right? What did he have to fix? So Sean Payton comes in and it takes a while, It took him five six weeks to get it right. But I think Denver's as good as they can possibly be. And that's why I liked him tonight. The kind of know what they are to keep things in front of them. They dominate

time of possession, you know. Buffalo, on the other hand, I wrote this down just in the first half, fumble, interception, three drops, no run game, and Buffalo trailed twelve eight at half. At home, they were just not prepared to play. So I look at a Buffalo team that has a superstar quarterback, a really star wide receiver, a couple of star defensive linemen, and at home felt like they were I mean, let's be honest. There's an old saying you lose more games and then you win in the NFL.

Buffalo lost that thing tonight. Who is the quarterback? Last couple of drives, didn't make any mistakes, kept picking up third downs. I mean, Russell Wilson was eight for nineteen on the road third down against the defensive coach Sean McDermott. Good defensive front, pretty good. So you know, if you want to know what coaching looks like, it's not just

the coaches. To get to the playoffs Denver, Sean Payton was asked to fix the coaching staff, fix Russell Wilson, fix the culture, and in the middle of a season, fix the defense. He's done all four Denver relative to their talent, is okay? Listen, the smartest guys in the NFL miss all the time during drafts, and I didn't know what Lamar Jackson was going to be. I really didn't know. I don't think anybody did. That's why virtually everybody passed on him, and the Baltimore Ravens got him

at the end of the first round. I mean, as good as Russell Wilson was in his prime, everybody passed on him, including Seattle a couple of times. Everybody passed on Brady five times and six in many instances. So there's no great valor in saying, you know, well, you were wrong on a quarterback. Everybody's wrong. The best gms in the history of the league are wrong. But you know it became very evident, very quickly with Lamar Jackson when he started Week eleven of year one. He was

really a unique talent. And I say this all the time, and I would say this. I argued with Jason McIntyre today about Brock Purty. Every great quarterback in my life there is something that is special, and which Brock Purtty there's not. He throws a good ball, not a great ball. There's no wow with Lamar Jackson. I don't get the critics. I just I don't. I don't get it when you watch him He had a couple of plays in the first half. One in the second half it was incompletely

He threw a ball deep into the end zone. It was caught, but out of the end zone. His escapability, his ability to move to his left or is right and keep his eyes down field, his ability to throw accurately deep when he's running. Lamar Jackson just doesn't play the game like anybody else. And you know when he first broke into the league, the knock was, well, he doesn't play well from behind. For the record, almost nobody does.

You know, outside of Pat Mahomes, almost nobody has a winning record playing from behind if they've played, you know, at least fifty starts in their career. And now the knock is, well, he can't. He can't keep a lead, so we know he can play from behind. I can't hold a lead. He can hold a lead. A lot of that's on the defense. You know, his turnovers are up this year. He can be frenetic, he can play

a little bit too fast. But just ask yourself Herbert size wow, arm strength wow, josh Allen Mahomes, Burrow's accuracy. If your quarterback doesn't have any wow. That was the knock on c J. Stroud. He's big enough. He was accurate, but it was sort of his comp was Jared Goff, and I had said with Goff and I still say it, there's not a lot of juice with Jared Goff, but he's really good. And that's c J. Stroud. His it is at his ability to see the field very quickly,

recognize and throw the ball accurately. Burrow and c J. Stroud have the same wow, and it's the ability to accurately throw a football from forty five yards in with dead eye accuracy. That wow. Drew Brees as wow was accuracy like through a tire from thirty yards, you know, regularly over and over and over. Your WOW doesn't have

to be size or speed or arm strength. It can be just Drew Brees, Joe Burrow, c J. Stroud accuracy that there's just not that many people can just drop a ball over linebackers in front of safeties twenty eight yards on a dime every time. But Lamar's just jumps off the television set. Like when I watch him, I'm like, yeah, I didn't know how it would work. But if you're still denying it, I don't know what you're watching the guys won seventy eight percent of his games. This is

the first year he's had good receivers. He's got a good tight end, but he's had running back injuries and O line injuries and Ronnie Stanley, and I think the guy's just incredibly special. In the NBA, the games can change in an instant, but no matter how the action unfold. Do you know that DraftKings Sportsbook has you covered? This week? New customers can score one hundred and fifty dollars instantly in bonus bets by just betting five bucks on basketball.

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one of our faves, John Middlecoff joining us. So let's start with something that I know irritates the hell out of both of us. The Chargers gave up five hundred and thirty three yards and about eight and a half yards of play to Jared Goff and the lines, who, by the way, were off a bye. I thought it was my favorite bet of the week. It was a push. It was at minus one Monday, but by Friday I get blazing five. I got minus three. But listen, this

is not an easy team to defend. Although Baltimore did it they were off a bye, but the ease in which Detroit scored quickly in the second half Derwin James, and I say this all the time when I watch a coach, do your players get better? We tend to think that good players in the NFL like they're set, like they can't be coached. Derwin James between between the penalties getting beat and all, obviously he can be sporadic in terms of availability. I don't think Derwin James. I

wouldn't resign him. I mean, I like him, but I wouldn't pay a safety that anymore what you have to pay Herbert. I am just it's John. At some point we have to acknowledge. I like Jared Goff. I like this on line, They're not eight and a half yards of play good right.

Speaker 3

I think the defining thing of the Brandon Staley ten year so far as the defensive coordinator while he's the head coach, he calls the defense has been in big spots. Guys are wide open, and I think as a coach, it doesn't matter what you know. And guys like Brandon Staley, I'm sure on a white board, just like Josh McDaniels, who was fired last week, knows a lot like their

football knowledge. Understanding every yard, every landmark, where everyone's supposed to be, what you're supposed to do against this, If this happens, do your players know?

Speaker 2

That's what coaching is.

Speaker 3

That's what separated Belichick for twenty years. His players always knew what to do. Andy Reid now with mahomes the player and for his whole career, but now they gun up a level that he has a quarterback. And you watch Brandon sale in that last drive, the first play that game, guys wide open, goes for forty yards and then ultimately getting field goal position because of that play. And I think it's always going back to the playoff

game what happened against the Jacks. They had an enormous lead and then blown coverage, blown coverage, and listen, most guys aren't Deon Sanders, Durell, Reeves, dvs are there. They get plays made on them. Football is hard, but when no one's around you, that's the problem with USC's defense the last couple of years, Like there's not even a

soul around. This can't be normal, you know, And I think that's the Brandon Staley ultimately his undoing because Herbert today had a little bit of a muscle flex Like this is the reason I'm one hundred and seventy hundred and eighty million dollars. Quarterback Keenan Allen's been fantastic this season. Clearly playing injured, you can't have a quarterback at that level.

Speaker 2

Like you said, Jared Goff resurrected his career.

Speaker 3

Everyone has a lot of respect if you like football, for what he's done. But Herbert's on a different level. But his defense is just better.

Speaker 1

Yeah, Quintin Johnson had a touchdown today, which is big for the Chargers because you know, and I called the Chargers and asked him. They're like, we really like him. But the TCU offense was different than the Chargers offense completely, and we're asking a lot of our receivers. That's why even Palmer, year two, year three, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, they've been in the system, Gerald Everett, this is a hard offense. We are Kellen Moore. Now we introduced a

new offense. So I was happy to see that happen. Yeah, and I think, you know, people can believe what they want about quarterbacks. I mean, Jordan Love had two picks today, lost and people will say, oh, he made some great throws, you know, justin Herbert was throwing dimes all over the field. Loses and people will say he's overrated. I felt today, I mean, the Spanos family and Tom Telesco have been frustrated.

I mean, I could tell you that that with some of what's gone on, great disappointment and the money spent on the defense and the inability for it to make stops. But I thought today I thought, I mean, Herbert march down the field, doesn't have Mike Williams, doesn't have that offensive line. I thought he was stupendous. It's funny I told you this. Obviously there's a communication. We don't think Brandon and Staley's a dumb guy. There's a communication gap

between brand that and the players. When you get Mike Vrabel, Dan Campbell and Andy Reid and Mike Tomlin, there's almost a physical presence, or with Pete Carroll, John Harbaugh sort of a legendary presence. They they're like almost brands. With Brandon Staley, he's a smart guy. Is he willing to confront a player? He's a smaller guy. Is he willing

to confront a player. Is he willing to bark? Is he willing to use willing to use volume, because I don't understand how you can have veteran players and older expensive defense in the wrong spot. Is he willing to call players out? And by the way, Vrabel is Tomlin is Pete is Harbaugh? Is that part of this whole thing is connecting. I mean, I know guys Greg Olsen told me Pete Carroll's meetings, you didn't make a sound. There was reverence to Pete, Andy Reid. He will bark

at Mahomes, He's intimidating, you know, Spolstra Kerr. These guys will snip, they'll get after you. Staley to me is sort of this intellectual. Do players respect him? They may know he's smart, But a lot of times, John, I've had bosses they're smart. It doesn't connect with me. And that's what I wonder that.

Speaker 3

There was a famous story when I worked in the Eagles office about Andy and a high draft pick at offensive line. This would have been the mid two thousands, basically getting in a shoving match. I don't know if it lasted that long, but Andy's enormous. This offensive Lineman a tackle enormous and the whole place kind of moved right,

the whole building. And you bring up Steve Kerr, think think how Steve is perceived on the outside, very progressive, liberal, outspoken, feels like he resonates with a certain crowd.

Speaker 2

Yet from a sports crowd. He's famous for fighting.

Speaker 3

Michael Jordan had a his oracle knockdown drag out with Draymond once upon a time in Oklahoma City that went public. A ton more that are not public. And part of it, like you said, is Brandon Staley really willing? You got to be confrontational. That's part of the sport, and it's the football in general is probably the most uncomfortable of them all because of the power coaches yield.

Speaker 2

Right.

Speaker 3

You know in basketball some coaches not everyone has Steve Kerr or Spolster's poll. But in football, all the head coach can always bench a player at any moment or he's in charge.

Speaker 2

Even if you work for Jerry Jones, the coach has a lot of poll over you.

Speaker 3

And you watch Brandon Staley like are players intimidated by this guy? And nothing ever changes? And listen, I have nothing personal against the guy. If people sayn't hate him. I just you know, I just watched his thing over and over. Now, the one thing I read Flag is, you know, the media is not that difficult to deal with. If you just call him by their first name, you

can get on their great graces. And he was good at that, so I and that was the phony element I saw it, and with the San Franco Giants with Gabeler, because ultimately, if you win or lose, who cares what they think about you. That's what you're paid there to do. And he's just struggled at that. And now you know, this year's been hanging on by a thread. And when

you have this quarterback. There's a couple of players I think that are pretty polarizing who are pretty good, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert, and I think, oh, I got a couple of texts today about Trevor Lawrence are like, yeah, you know, there's some intangible stuff I wish he had a little more of.

Speaker 2

I think he can be a little overrated. One guy. I never hear that from. I don't care.

Speaker 3

It could be the Chiefs, the Eagles are just other random teams. Everyone supports Justin Herbert as a player. There's no he is not polarizing internally in the NFL. Good teams, bad teams, in the middle of the road teams. Everyone stamps this guy is a baller, right, He's in that crew of what gets universal agreement, and you know you wasted his rookie contract.

Speaker 2

Now you're paying him big money.

Speaker 3

Luckily, the way football is, he can play at this level for a long period of time, but the time is now.

Speaker 2

I mean, what are we doing.

Speaker 3

Whether it's Jim Harball, whether it's I don't know exactly who the coach is, but you have to upgrade.

Speaker 2

It's not even debatable.

Speaker 1

I want to talk about Bengals Houston Texans because this was a spot. This is one of the bets I should have taken. I should have taken Houston. Plus the point everybody told me to take this because you know Cincinnati had beaten Buffalo. Raven's next and this is that classic Sandwich game. Is that I don't want to hear any excuses for Daniel Jones. I don't want to hear it for Jordan Love or Kenny Pickett. I watched every snap of that thing today. C J. Stroud is so accurate,

so impressive. He had a bad pick, very much like Andrew Luck shrugged it off, had zero effect, very short memory. And listen, we all know Burls great. But I gotta tell you something. When I watched C. J. Stroud, that was a real moment. That is a better roster on the road. Bad pick bounced back, marched down the field with no time left. Now, if Boyd could catch, maybe it's a different outcome. But I gotta tell you, John, I looked at him, so it's funny his comp was

Jared Goff with a little more mobility. Well if I told you, you know, if you think about that, that's like, well, hell if GoF had mobility, maybe like a top eight quarterback.

Speaker 2

Right.

Speaker 1

So I watched Stroud and I'm just like, I'm sold. I mean today was just like that last drive. It's like, man, I am sold on him.

Speaker 3

Well, you and I have been talking about it all season long. The separating factor what makes guys have success that are drafted high or not their ability to layer those throws. It's not the Brett faarv seventy yard on a rope, you know, into double coverage. Most guys can't do that. Can you layer the throw over an underneath the fender, whether it's a corner or a linebacker, and then a safety behind him and put it in there. And a lot of guys can't. Most guys can't, and

most guys can't consistently do it. This guy does it with the East and let's face it with a Thursday night game with Bryce on display. And this when I got out of football and went to radio, started to go into a lot of baseball games and basketball games.

Speaker 2

And I knew this being so many NFL games, but.

Speaker 3

The importance of size in pro sports, that the outliers of small guys is so small, like Steph Curry is considered a small guy. Steph Curry six's four and now he's jacked, but he's not that small. He's not Isaiah Thomas. You know, he's not as small as you think.

Speaker 1

Listen, I'm I'm I'm six to two. I'd be like the fifth tallest president in the history of the country. And I've been around Steph Curry twice. He's bigger than me and fifteen pounds heavier.

Speaker 3

I remember going to Giants baseball games seeing Hunter Pence and Madison Bumber on the size of these guys. And you see Bryce Young I just don't see how that's gonna work. He is so small, that's one thing to be Kyler Murray small, but he's two hundred and twenty pounds and he's faster than every guy on the field, so he has things that he can hang his hat on.

Speaker 2

Even today, I'm watching some of his highlights.

Speaker 3

I don't know if he's one hundred percent, but he's still faster than every one in the Atlanta Falcons. Bryce is not that fast, doesn't have a great arm anyways, one hundred and seventy pounds, and when von Hargrave or some of these defensive linemen fall on you, there's no way to just get back up. You watch DJ Straud, He's big, he can move, and throwing is the easiest part of this game. It just comes like, I don't even think it's that debatable. I'm not trying to We're

only in November. The Texans wouldn't even pick up their phone call if they try to do a trade, And how would Carolina not have a redo on that?

Speaker 2

And is that just David Temper forcing it?

Speaker 3

Because I'd say the Houston Texans, who also really like Bryce Young, sometimes you need a little luck.

Speaker 2

Hell, the Chargers would have taken to a he's on your team, that's all that matters. They should be.

Speaker 3

Doing cartwheels that this guy, the way it all played out, fell to them, because I don't see any chance Bryce Young could be like a.

Speaker 2

Quarter of as good as this guy. Well.

Speaker 1

And also, Ohio State has a history. Think how great Ohio State football's had and they've never had a great NFL quarterback. And part of that is because Ohio State, outside of Michigan, has significantly better talent than everybody in

their conference. Alabama's great even during their run, LSU, Georgia stacked, Texas and m didn't have the coach stacked Ohio State faces one game a year and they out recruit historically Michigan that they're even so c J. Stroud five star tackle a lot of time, five star receivers, heartline recruits better than anybody in the country at wide receiver. So there's a reason Ohio State it's not USC similar Matt Lioner,

it barely got touched in college. There is a reason it's not really living an NFL experience.

Speaker 2

So c J.

Speaker 1

Stroud, My thing was, these Ohio State quarterbacks are talented, but God, they all put up gigantic numbers, but his accuracy is just today he had a coup and now it helps Demiko Ryan's great coach, Tank Dell. Holy moly, is that pick what?

Speaker 2

So like?

Speaker 1

Sometimes you need he's got juice? Bryce Young has no juice Bryce Young. Herbstreet said the other day, he goes, they ran one offense, they're transitioning to another, and they have none of the players, so it's going to be really ugly. Some of this for Houston is they had a very good offseason. They sign in free agency, if you remember John, some B level players, and I remember saying on FS one, I was like, they're having a quietly. They picked up about six seven rotational starters, you know,

guys that will play. So then you head on Tank Dell. So I will say CJ's got a little better talent that I think. I think Houston's pretty got some juice, don't you think a little bit?

Speaker 2

For sure?

Speaker 3

They've drafted, Well, they're gonna have a ton of money. You know, the Cowboys never have any cash base to sign free agents because Jerry's always overpaying his own guys.

Speaker 2

If they ever did, people would love to go to Texas in no state income text Houston.

Speaker 3

Now, if they can take advantage of these next couple of years, could have a chance to kind of load up that make some bold trades. They got some picks from the Deshaun Watson's thing still coming in, they'd have a chance.

Speaker 2

They got a star coach. I heard what Herbstreet said.

Speaker 3

The only thing I would disagree because I don't disagree that their offense looks terrible and their lack of talent, but there is a physical characteristic attribute thing at the highest level of pro sports that you go.

Speaker 2

It's gonna be difficult for them.

Speaker 3

So even if they get the right offense, they upgrade an offensive coordinator, how they fire Frank and get a better coach?

Speaker 2

When does that what it looks like to all of us, how miniscule the guy is gonna work? Yea, even if c J. Strowd hadn't been this good, his body type, his movement, we've seen that before.

Speaker 3

Well seen anything like Bryce before coming out of Alabama. I'm not trying to act like I'm some genius. I thought he was sweet, but it ain't working and it doesn't even look like it has a chance.

Speaker 1

To listen, fran Tarkenton was small but nobody drafted small guys after Fran. It's more of a copycat league now, like that was just a unique player Georgia Fran Tarkenton ran around, but there wasn't like seven eight guys drafted after it. It was six four six ' five guys that could throw the ball down the field did not move. The truth is Russell Wilson got Johnny Manziel drafted, Baker drafted, Kyler drafted. He got a lot of these guys drafted,

and we've watched I think fairly. Even though Russell over the last three weeks has been better because they've established a run game under Payton, he's lost his juice. It's just it's just the bottom line is when you're that small in this league, it doesn't take as many hits. Christ I saw Cam Newton Ben age thirty three, You're like, whoa, that doesn't look anything like it than at twenty nine. So it's like Ben got old fast, Cam got old fast.

Josh Allen's got about three more years of this. Yeah, and he's he's for sure and he's six six, two sixty. So I do think with Bryce and your point on Kyler is right. Kyle, for the record, Kyler's been banged up several times. Kyler did not want to run in the playoff game, like you know, five ten guys don't want to run. Sharper Square. Chad Millman, CEEO Action Network. I actually this week love the lines and I love

dogs everywhere. This week I'm going I'm going value shopping because I've been heavy on the favorites for about a month. It's done me. Okay, you ready to go.

Speaker 4

I'm ready, brother, let me hear what you're selling.

Speaker 1

I don't like the line as much now, but Chicago plus seven and a half at Detroit Lions off a big win. Justin Fields is capable of big plays. Detroit gives up a lot of them. Lost in that win is that the Chargers marched up and down the field and then five straight touchdowns at the end, and often very quickly. I would love it. At nine and a half, I thought it was the second best line of the week. But at seven and a half, I would take the bear. Sharper Square, totally sharp.

Speaker 4

Look, you're still getting more than a touchdown. The line was at ten on Tuesday, went to nine, went to eight and a half, went to eight. Woke up Thursday morning, forty eight hours later, it's at seven and a half. A couple things going on here. One when it was at ten. A load of inflation. And what I mean is the Lions are now a public team. People want

to bet them. People who don't know anything about football want to bet on the Lions the same way they used to want to bet in the Patriots, the same way they used to want to bet on the Packers, the same way they still want to bet on the Cowboys. Right, So there was inflation. That's why the wise guys came in and took the ten, and took the nine, and took the eight, and now it's down to seven and a half. That's number one. Number two. Divisional matchups. Divisional

matchups favor the road team. They favor the underdog. So when you get that, then diagram, you want to bet the road underdog. It's a lot of divisional matchups this week. This is when the wise guys spoted right away.

Speaker 1

This, I'm gonna throw my theory at you. I like the Vikings plus two and a half at Denver. Denver, you always talk about lucky. That was the luckiest win in the league this year. Twelve man multiple fumbles, three drop passes. I mean, how many time did the Broncos get a drive starting at the fifty and not give me points? Meanwhile, Buffalo was a bit unlucky twelfth man among them. Minnesota, I think a lot of people think, hey,

it's a cute story. Well it's more than that. Josh Dobbs is effective, he's accurate, justin Jefferson could come back. They have an excellent offensive coach. I like their personal A lot two and a half is too much, I think. I think Minnesota is a real team. The Josh job thing. He's more mobile now than Russell. He's accurate. They have better weapons too. I know the numbers telling me to bet Denver. I'm gonna take Minnesota plus two and a half sharper square square.

Speaker 4

The wise guys are taking Denver, the public is taking Minnesota. You can see this by what's called the reverse line move. You see all the bets coming in on Minnesota. He yet the line continues to go up. It's gone from one to one and a half before the Buffalo game, is at one and a half after the game. It only went up to two. Because bookmakers are trying to figure out which way is the public and which way the wise guy's going to go. With two teams that

are winning in surprising ways. The public came in on Minnesota, the wise guys came in on Denver. So what you're saying about Josh Jobs is totally accurate. But look at what Denver has done. Denver has won three games in a row. After that devastating loss to the Chiefs on a Thursday night, Russell Wilson had fewer than one hundred

yards passing. He had two picks. That was following up a week in which they lost to the Jets, in which the game was clinched by Russell Wilson scrambling and then forcing his own fumble by knocking the ball out of his hand with his own leg and the Jets pick it up and run it back for a touchdown. Since then, they've completely retooled, not just this defense, which has been considerably better, but Russell Wilson. In this offense. They get him into a position to make a decision faster.

They were snapping the ball with ten seconds or less too often. Now they're not doing that. Even saw it last week against the Bills. They weren't game changing plays, except they were plays that didn't cause Denver to lose yardage and lose momentum. It was a simple pass under the first quarter. Russell Wilson second and one looks down the field instead of scrambling, instead of trying to find someone deep, he just dumps it off right first down.

Very next play, pass rush is coming up both sides, the middle of the field opens, Russell Wilson doesn't hesitate, sprints for ten yards. Russell Wilson has eighteen touchdown passes, second in the league behind Tua. Four interceptions, second fewest, seventh best rated passer against the rush according to PFF. They're a better team right now.

Speaker 1

Okay, there's a line, and it happens maybe twice a year that I do not get. And my instinct is Vegas knows something I don't, and this is the first one this year. The Bills minus seven against the Jets seems outrageous. Vegas knows. I'm taking Buffalo minus seven. That line makes no sense. The Jets are an awful, awful third down team. They can't move the chains. Buffalo is incredibly unlucky between drops and penalties against Denver. They were the better team. This line, I thought I guess Lions

before they come out. I'm like three. I'm like seven Buffalo fires, a coach inspired. Everybody's backs against the wall. The country's bailed on them, the cities on their ass. I'm taking Buffalo minus seven here sharper square.

Speaker 4

So in the same way that CJ. Stroud might be a bit of a cheat code, Zach Wilson is the opposite in every way. Whise guys want to take the Jets in this spot, a much much better defense, a team in the Bills that is fading. They are now not even They're not even in plus money to make their minus money to make the playoffs. They're not favorites to make the playoffs anymore. They're in a real struggle spot.

Except nobody wants to back Zach Wilson. They just can't find it within themselves to back this quarterback at this number, no matter how big it is. Meanwhile, Josh Allen historically in this spot at home, when Josh Allen wins, he covers that isn't the story this year, right, It's been a lot more of a struggle. There's zero consensus on this colin Like, you're not going to find any wise guy who's like, oh my god, I love Josh Allen at minus seven. There are games where they do like

big favorites. This week, you're on your own on this one. There's nobody who's like, yeah, I got it, there's value on this one. Don't forget whise. Guys like to bet where they think they have an edge. They do not have an on the field edge against this number.

Speaker 1

Finally, Eagles plus three at the Chiefs. Jalen Hurts has beaten twelve straight winning teams. This is weird. I never do this. I think Philly blows them out. I think Philly blows out Kansas City. I think it's one of those games that makes for great sports talk radio on Tuesday. I'm going to take Philly like thirty three twenty six. Thirty three twenty three physically pushes them around Sharper Square.

Speaker 4

Dude, this is the scariest game on the board. I have bet the Eagles my first instinct on this game. Me and Simon Hunter, both professional better Simon Hunter are the coast of my podcast with me. We looked at this game and we're like, the Eagles are the better team, right, Like, every single way you look at it, they are the better team, and we bet the Eagles. We've heard some wise guys coming in on the Eagles. But what's scary

is Patrick Mahomes. This isn't hyperbole. Virtually unbeatable in November December, virtually unbeatable as a favorite of three or less. Andy Reid great off the buy like we're talking about. We're talking about bucking incredibly strong historical trends. You and I can make an executive decision on this. I'm with you. I think the Eagles are going to cover, but we're not going to find a ton of support from the betting community that is consensus on this. There are games

where we're going to get consensus. They same one of them.

Speaker 1

Okay, give me as you know. There's a game I thought about I want you to talk me into and then pull one or two out that I didn't think of. So the number was smaller earlier. But I think Miami could destroy the Raiders. I think it could be absolutely one of the ugly games of the year. Last week I took Dallas over the Giants. I felt great about it. That thing was over in eight minutes. I think Miami's going to win by three touchdowns over the Raiders. The

numbers now like minus thirteen and a half. I would take the huge favorite Sharper square one hundred percent.

Speaker 4

That's that's the play. The reason this number's gone from eleven and a half to twelve, to twelve and a half to thirteen to thirteen and a half in the past forty eight hours. West guys are piling on. They're not looking at the Raiders, going too and oh with Antonio Pearson eight in O'Connell and thinking, oh, yeah, they got a shot. When the Dolphins play bad teams, they blow them out. When they play good teams, they lose. That's just their mo right now. Maybe one day they'll

get better. Maybe one day they'll be competitive with more higher caliber teams. But they blow out bad teams. Look at that Carolina and Gain. Remember it, Carolina was up by fourteen. You're like, oh my god, they got a shot before halftime. It was thirty five fourteen.

Speaker 1

All right, Melman, that's pretty good. Could to see you're back from ducial door for wherever you were at, it was very Listen.

Speaker 4

It was Copenhagen. You love Copenhagen.

Speaker 1

You want to move there, Hagen.

Speaker 4

Copin, thank you for correcting me. Yeah, you know what you got, content, you got class.

Speaker 1

I don't know about that, all right, buddy

Speaker 4

I see later the volume

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