Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Harbaugh Is Perfect For The Bills, Love “Actually Good”, Sharp Or Square - podcast episode cover

Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Harbaugh Is Perfect For The Bills, Love “Actually Good”, Sharp Or Square

Dec 09, 202340 min
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Episode description

Colin’s best takes of the week! 

 

He explains why Jim Harbaugh is the perfect coach to turn around the flailing Buffalo Bills if he chooses to leave Michigan (2:00) and why Jordan Love is starting to thrive because of the buy-in from the Packers organization (7:20)

John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out” stops by to break down the 49ers dominant win over the Eagles and why they should be hoisting the Lombardi trophy in February (16:15).

Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins from Las Vegas for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for the Week 14 NFL slate! 

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.)

30:45 - Saints vs. Panthers

32:00 - Broncos vs. Chargers

33:30 - Seahawks vs. 49ers

35:00 - Ravens vs. Rams

37:00 - Browns vs. Jags

38:30 - Chiefs vs. Bills

40:30 - Eagles vs. Cowboys

Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #Herd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

The volume this week on Prime Cuts, Chad Milman, Sharper Square, John Middlikoff on the Niners Dominant went over Philly in my Top Takes of the Week. Well, hi, everybody, I think the interesting story today is Tyler Dunn, who is connected covers the Packers and the Buffalo Bills, has a story today. It's part of a three part series on Sean McDermott and how he has worn out as welcome in Buffalo. And there's a lot of you know, anonymous sourcing that I trust with Tyler Dunn on players saying

he's rigid, He's a blamer. You know, that's why the defensive coordinator is quit. He fashions himself as a great leader but doesn't inspire players. But the most damning part of the article to me, and something I've talked about so often that I do worry that it's just it's fatiguing to the audience, is defensive coaches do not have relationships with quarterbacks. We've seen Mac Jones and Belichick regress terribly, Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson really bad. Mike Zimmer and

Kirk Cousins reportedly huge fissiers in that relationship. In the Tyler Dunn story, the part that would really concern me is the quote that Sean McDermott, all these years with Josh Allen doesn't really have a great relationship.

Speaker 2

Hmm.

Speaker 1

That's why Josh Allen has regressed since Brian Dabole left, and we've talked about it on FS one. If you look at the coaches who have had to deal with backup quarterback situations this year, Shane Steike and Colts, they're winning with Gardner Minshew, Zach Taylor, Jake Browning just beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville. You know, I mean Brock Purdy started his career with Shanahan as a backup, Kevin Stefanski

with Joe Flakel last week, surprisingly capable. You look at defensive coaches who have to deal with backups Belichick and Bailey Zappi, Dennis Allen having to deal with Jamis Winston and New Orleans. So there is a thread here. Offensive coaches consistently have better relationships, not surprisingly with their quarterback. But when your quarterback is Josh Allen, you got to

get it right. And in that Tyler Dunn article, McDermott has no real tight relationship with his star quarterback, and listen, you just don't see very often he's a blamer. In the article, a defensive coordinator resign like Leslie Fraser, a respected guy. This year they blamed Ken Dorsey. He gets fired. So Buffalo's a small market, a very small market by pro sports franchise market comps, and so I have my

questions whether they'd fire him or not. But the reason I talk about this it leads me to the second story, which is Jim Harbaugh is negotiating an eleven and a half million dollar a year deal with Michigan Think Think. The only great job available in the NFL is potentially the Buffalo Bill's job. The Chargers would be a good job at Brandon Staley hasn't been fired, and the Dean Spano's children, the boys are upstairs in the front office,

which has scared off other coaches. It's not ideal. You won't get much of a say in personnel, which Harbaugh wants. Buffalo is different. They have drafted pretty well, not great, but what they're missing is somebody to build a consistently good run game and O line. That is exactly what Jim Harbaugh has done with the Niners, with Stanford and with Michigan. What the Bills lack as a coach, vision, quarterback elevation, physicality, and a consistent run game. That's exactly

what Harbaugh does. So Jim Harraud to Buffalo is a perfect fit. The defense is good enough, the roster is good enough, there are things they do well. But how many years does this defense of coach get to use alibis to explain the inability to run the ball consistently. Also struggling to run the ball consistently defensive coach Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh. So it's a pattern. The tighter dun story is I opening. Check it out on Bill's coach

Sean McDermott does not paint a pretty picture. And in line with that, juxtaposed with the Jim Harbon news, if I was Jim Harbaugh, I would accept Michigan's offer. I don't think there's a great job out there. You get about one great job opening every three or four years, Cowboys, Mike McCarthy job, you get Dak the Old Line, a committed franchise, good money, great city, good job, Matt Lafleur, Packers, Aaron Rodgers, late Prime, great job, not many. You can say, oh, oh, well,

look at Pete Carroll took the Seahawks. They didn't have quarterback right. Pete couldn't get the quarterback right for a couple of years. That looks like a good franchise, was it when he took it over? Oh? The Houston Texans were a Demiko Ryans is great and C. J. Stroud has been shockingly good. It's not a good job. Most of these openings. You've got an owner issue, a roster issue,

or a pressure and unrealistic expectation issue. Like Carolina. Bill's not only a great job opening because of Josh Allen steady ownership, good roster. Belichick's leaving soon. Aaron Rodgers' situation is still a mess. Tua his They haven't given him an extension, so you don't really know if the organization's all in on Tua, who has been historically injury prone. That's the only job. If I'm our baw, I pause on the Michigan contract offer. Other than that, I'd sign

it tomorrow. The Packers went over Kansas City. It was their game from the very beginning. And I said this during the week on FS one. It didn't matter if Green Bay won in terms of the big picture. What Jordan Love had to do with Patrick Mahomes on the other sideline is to be able to match him, and you know we don't. Holmes is the better cornerback. Can he make throws? Can he look confident? Can he move? And I thought Jordan Love was everything and more. You know,

it's interesting. For years I've said about Green Bay is I think they draft and develop as well as anybody in the NFL. Just look at their wide receiving talent. Watson, Jaden, Reid, Romeo, Dobbs and Wicks. The four really really twitchy. Watson's a burner, They're really clever athletes, all can play. New England hasn't drafted a legitimate receiver in over a decade. Green Bay's got four in two years. They just do it well.

And it's what's interesting. If you look at the Packers history, they don't take a lot of players, offensive players in the first round, but yet they always end up with elite tackles, very good running backs, excellent receivers, better than average tight ends. It's a really offensive leading culture. Home run in the McCarthy, in the Matt Lafleur. They do offense well. Steelers do defense well. Packers do offense well, and this of course helps Jordan Love, whereas Kenny Pickett

is going to be kind of on his own. Jordan Love's got great aids to his left, to his right. He also, and we've discussed this, you know, ad nauseum. Aaron Rodgers was like, you know, a fifty year old lead singer and the band was a bunch of twenty year olds. He didn't fit all these young players as they were rebuilding the offense. This generationally works. Jordan Love and these guys like they feel like, you know, they're

going to be around four years and years together. And you know, I just think if you if you look around at the majority of the young quarterbacks who can struggle, it's often with defensive coaches. Look at what McVeigh did to Goff, Look at what Shanahan's doing to Purty, Look at what Mike McDaniel did to resurrect Tua. Yet look what Belichick's done to Mac Jones. He gets worse every year.

Now he's just a shot fighter. So I'm not saying Jordan Love doesn't have talent, but you've watched the development in the last six weeks. He's like a different player. He was always tall and moved well. He always had a good whip that was never a question. You could watch his YouTube highlights as you did, and I did at Utah State. He was always a big kid who moved well and had a whip that was never the issues. A little bit erratic as a thrower, he was tonight too,

But this is just confidence development. And you can tell a lot years and years ago. I remember a story They've got confidence with Jordan Love now in the building. That's why tonight was already crucial, and you saw it a little bit against the Chargers, a lot against the Lions, and really a lot tonight is that you got to

get buy in in the building. Years ago, a long long time ago, I helped create a show at ESBN called a Sports Nation and it was offbeatn kind of quirky, and we didn't know if it was going to work because it was so different than anything on the air. But an executive said, well, if the people in the building like it, if you get buy in in the bill, it doesn't matter what the ratings are, they'll support it. And I always thought that's interesting. Get buy in in

the building. It's a lot like that for a quarterback. Watch the Chicago Bears play calling with Justin Fields. He has no buy in in the building. The coordinator doesn't trust him, the coach doesn't trust him. Seventy percent of the throws are behind the line of scrimmage. He's got no buy in in the building. CJ. Stroud complete buy in. Jordan Love did not have it in the preseason and in September we kept saying, it's their babysitting him. They're

coddling him. Let him throw it. It was just slow growth. Let's wait until we're comfortable. Let's let this thing develop. The Packers knew better now when you watch it. They just let him go. I mean, it's got a backyard field to it. Just let him go. And he's never going to be as precise as Aaron Rodgers. That's not who he is. He's got the far playmaking ability with sort of the whip of Aaron Rodgers, but he's not a precise thrower. He's not Joe Burrow. That's not what

he is. You know, he can get erratic. His mechanics are a little you know, they are what they are. It looks a little backyard football. But he's playing with a ton of confidence. He has tremendous young offensive personnel around him, and they're all getting better. Watson, Dobbs, Wicks, those guys are all going to get better. You don't have to pay any of them for three years, so that'll let you dip in and solve any issues you have anywhere else in the roster, because right now Jordan

loves Not doesn't have a punitive contract. So you know the other thing that jumps out to me is that not only do the Packers draft and develop, well, I mean, how many quarterbacks have succeeded there? You know, a lot for the biggest three of the biggest quarterbacks in league history, you know our Packers, but the two more recent obviously

are Farvan Rodgers. And you know it's it's sometimes because they don't have an owner to call you on your you know crap, and because it's the smallest pro sports city in America where you can't even go to the grocery store. I always call it the Green Bay Packer quarterback syndrome, where like far of An Aaron, Rodgers are very different people, but it kind of dissolved into the

same threatening retirement, unhappy with front office. And you know, when you think about it, that was perfect for farv An Aaron Rodgers to start. It may have ended poorly, but you know, Green Bay tends to be very supportive, very much into development. You don't have to worry about the press breathing down your throat. I mean the cheeseheads, Lambeau, totally supportive, thick and thin. It really is a perfect environment for a young quarterback trying to find his footing.

Former NFL scout for the Philadelphia Eagles, John Middlecough as we get ready for close to an hour of breakdown of college football, some thoughts on very coaches in the league who are on the definite hot seat. But we start, John with San Francisco and Philly. There were two games this weekend that I loved. I loved the Niners and I love the Lions. So let's start with San Francisco

and in Philadelphia. I thought, at least in the first half, it felt like your classic matchup of great teams, playmakers, speed, strength, coaching, kind of the class of the NFC. But I do wonder if that emotional game with a lot of snaps for the Eagles defense last week against Buffalo, and that was one of the reasons I like San Francisco At this time of the year. John every day counts for rest,

so the Niners get several days rest. The Eagles play an especially long game against Buffalo defenses on the field, and I think they looked absolutely worn down in the second half defensively. That was my take.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I thought early on, I mean that place I've been to a lot of games. There was rocking and the quarterback was a little shaky. The Eagles came ready to play, which was shocking. I thought it'd be the other way around. The Niners had talked a lot, Like you said, they had been Austin's Thanksgiving. I thought by about midway through that second quarter, the Niners were really leaning on him. You could tell that defensive line was gassed.

The Eagles defense isn't very good. I mean, their linebackers are decimated with injuries. They're on like their third string nickel corner. They had to trade for a safety, and the forty nine ers from Ayuk to obviously Debo, who has been running his mouth for nine months. And listen, I got no problem in an individual sport. You're connor McGregor. You're Tiger Woods, your whatever. You run your mouth, only you have to back it up. Deebo can back it up.

I was nervous some other guys on the team, you know, the right tackle trying to block Redick. It didn't matter. I mean, Deebo dominated that game. Kittle was awesome, McCaffrey was flying around. They came ready to play, but most

importantly Colin in solidarity with the quarterback. How about that MVP type performance from brock perty after starting the game oh four, where it's just he looks shaky, Yeah, nighten of twenty three the rest of the game and just throwing dots, keeping plays alive with his legs, keeping his eyes downfield. He's how about the run he had where he broke the tackle. I'm not saying the guy's the MVP, but if he's not in the discussion, we're all not watching football. He was brilliant today.

Speaker 1

Yeah, and I think one of the things I've said, let's contextualize it. Shanahan's a brilliant, brilliant play caller, and the weapons are insane. I mean literally, Kitt will be a Hall of Famer. Trent Williams of a Hall of Famer. McCaffrey should be a Hall of Famer, and if Deebo stays healthy for four more years, people will talk about him as a Hall of Famer. That's just on the offense.

But I do believe that there are just certain throws that c J. Stroud makes and I'm like, oh, yeah, that's a franchise quarterback that Kenny Pickett can't make, right, And so there are throws perty You'll make about three throws a game and he'll let go of that puppy before the receiver breaks and you're like, oh, yeah, that's a franch And for the record, I don't see joh Fields make those. I don't see him as an anticipation thrower. So and it's not a knock. I don't see Zach

Wilson make those. A lot of this stuff is innate. And you know, years ago Bill Parcells had a rule no celebrity quarterbacks, which forget that. Now with nil, they're gonna be slighties. But I want three years of starting. And I remember when I really noticed this. I covered Akieley Smith in Oregon and I love the way through the ball, but he was like a one year starter and he went to the NFL and he just did not have enough reps. He just did not have enough reps.

He was overwhelmed. And it wasn't because he was a good kid. He could move, he had a hell of an arm, he had a baseball arm. But he just didn't have enough starts. And you know, the NFL is impatient by year two, Like if you don't, they're not sitting around waiting for you, as everybody's gonna lose their job. I think a lot of this with Perty is he came in high school college, he had like eight straight years of snaps. He's just fun to He is just cognitively ready to play football.

Speaker 3

For sure. But I also think he's really good. I mean, he was the Arizona High School Player of the year, really good record, rooting base. In his second year starting, he was the second team All Big twelve guy behind Jalen Hurts. For the next two years he was a first teamer. And he's come in on this team and he's clearly better than anything Jimmy brought to the table. And Jimmy was pretty good, not the version we've seen

these last couple of years. The other thing is, wouldn't you say probably the best average arm quarterback over the last probably a couple decades, was like Drew Brees, Yeah, you know, and we and listen, you were right on Baker Mayfield. I personally thought he could become that. Clearly, he never sniffed that. I actually think this guy has a lot of those traits in the pocket. But he also has unlike Drew. Now, Drew was much more accomplished

as a passer coming out of college. But this guy clearly is comfortable to go in into environment like that dreary day Philly, and I get they were running out of gas and the Niners were favored for a reason, but that kid was dominant, you know, just in terms of accuracy and what's the key if you're gonna play with really good players, put it on them because well they got a lot of yards after the catch. Well

he hits them in stride the ball. The McCaffrey down the middle, a couple of balls to debo, a couple balls as a kittle, and his athleticism, I think his ten yard split is pretty much the same time as Christian McCaffrey. So he's not Lamar Jackson or Cam Newton down the field as a runner, but you know, in those little bursts, he can keep plays live a lot like Jalen right, and that's an underestimated part of his

game that has taken the Niners to a whole nother level. Now, once they pulled away, it was not a fair fight because the Eagles, like you said, ran out of gas. But I also think you see, like even if the Eagles had gas, let's face it, the Niners are a little better, right fully healthy, and the Eagles just they're not getting healthy guys in the secondary, like brad Bury and Slay are their corners. And the way they use their number one wide receiver and Debo is not like

an AJ Brown. They don't just put them out there and say cover Darius. Slay would like that with a receiver. They're moving them all around. They're using them like a running back. I use a very shifty in and out of cuts a lot like Devonte Smith. Why nobody can cover him. And then you got Kittle, who is just one of the most unique players in the league to go on top of McCaffrey. So it's just a tough situation. It's a tough matchup for Philly.

Speaker 1

Well, and here's the utter thing. So we both kind of I think we both felt strongly just on the extra time that this was really San Francisco's game for s Can you have these moments when Dallas went to San Francisco. San Francisco's kind of team. The Eagles know it and the Cowboys know it. If you don't have your shit dialed in, you're in big trouble. Yeah, they played Downhill really fast. They're like Buffalo three years ago. Without the mistakes. You get all the avalanche, you know,

without the yard sale of skis flying everywhere. They're like a streamlined avalanche. And you just can't with all these weapons. But here's the one thing about Philadelphia I worry about is that Ferguson for the Cowboys. Now, Randon Cooks are productive, Ceedee Lamb's a top four receiver.

Speaker 3

In the league, big time, Okay.

Speaker 1

And then you have Debo Kittle, Brandon Ayux a special player. Awesome, Even Jennings contributes. The Philly secondary is not getting better.

Speaker 3

Awful.

Speaker 1

They made a move at the trade deadline. It's bad. It's old. It's not getting better. Even Detroit if you watch them today, because GoF usually has time because of that offensive line and they run the ball really well. Jamison Williams now becoming more of a threat. There's an argument to be made with Philly. Their weakness is a real problem because we both like GoF more than people know. Armor on Saint Brown Laportas and Williams Laporte. He's an

incredible rule exists. So all of a sudden, you start looking at Philly and you're like, well, they don't match up necessarily well with the top three teams in the NFC.

Speaker 3

Well, their key is they did not have to win today after they won the last two weeks. Now they're gonna have to win this upcoming week against Dallas, right, and it is an enormous game. Their formula is gonna be the d line has to be elite. I mean, it has to be unstoppable, and it can be. Today

they were clearly running on fumes. That's why, let's face it today through everything, I mean, McCarthy, I'm sure feed up eating a sandwich at home with a big smile on his face because he has the opportunity now at home. The Niners took care of business. The Niners now place Seattle. All of a sudden, if Dallas wins and the forty nine ers wins. The Eagles are kind of looking up. I'm with you. You gotta be able to It's not like Andrey Thomas and Leonore or Richard Sherman and Dreux

Reeves in the prime, but they're functional players. And the main difference between the Eagles and the Niners because both of them have countless d linemen that every team would want. It's the linebackers. I mean, Fred Warner is a dominant player. Greenlaw, who got in a fight with Dom on the sideline, is probably the best number two linebacker. But even when those guys, there was a moment when when Greenlaw got tossed and Fred's schue came off. The Nighters have two

other backups who are solid. Those linebackers are Kyle Shanahan was this is why Deebo and those guys were talking so much shit all week. They don't think that all those guys have a chance to handle their speed, their physicality.

Speaker 1

And they don't.

Speaker 3

And once they took a deep breath and just kind of handled the crowd and just kind of the wetness and just everything that the link brings. It was a route. They just ran circles around them, and that's for sure. Now. Their d linemen, if they play at an elite level, could just cause so much havoc and their offense has to be awesome. Goddard's got to come back, you know.

Aj Brown had some big time moments to Vonte that their offense is really special and that's why they've won a lot of these games, right, because it's essentially been shootouts in the second half. Harder to have shootouts with the forty nine ers, I think because their defense that they're just not really going to play in a thirty eight to thirty five type game.

Speaker 1

Yeah, the best one possession win teams over the last several years have been Philadelphia. It caught up with them today. Minnesota last year caught up with them. There was a Cowboy team and a Seahawk team over the last three or four years, and it caught up with them. You just can't you eventually, you can't get out gained like Philly had four straight games. Is it just doesn't work that way. And so I kind of look at the Philadelphia and I like so, I think they'll play very well.

In a weird way, they were best served to get their butt kicked because they'll come against Dallas, they'll play a great game. They'll play a great game. But I do think there is a fundamental problem that they can only overcome with ball control offensively, which is their back They're back four back seven linebackers are weak. Corners aren't great. They have one good safety. The only way to overcome that is with ball control, and that's it, and now they have the components to do that.

Speaker 3

I think they also got to be really careful. And in fairness, they're players, I mean slays on the volume, high level guy, Jalen super high level guy. Their coach can be really really yappy, right and not in a Bill Parcells like check the hel on my wall. Yeappy. It's like kind of annoying, and there's a level of the you know, listen, Kyle Shannon's gonna scream at the refs,

but he's not gonna give the other team. He's an old school kind of Andy Reid, his dad, like, it's not about he doesn't want to get involved in the thing. And I do think their coaching staff. You got Sirianni screaming at people pregame. He just listen. That works against the majority of opponents. It's not gonna work against the Chiefs. Maybe it works a little bit against Dallas, but it's not gonna work against the forty nine ers. It's more just x's and o's. We're gonna hit you in the

mouth and we're gonna be relentless. So all that stuff, you know, that kind of typically feeds into Philly, like they loved when Dom got tossed, and they feed off that souff The Niners are they have proven that this core of guys have won so many games on the road, went to Green Bay and one went to Dallas and one like that. They're not gonna be intimidated by difficult circu They easily could have won a couple of years ago against the Rams, right you know, when Tart dropped

the ball. So they go into these environments a lot like some great like NBA players like Curry group over the years, Like they're not intimidated. They might need a couple series to kind of gather themselves, but they're gonna be okay. So the Eagles, it's gonna be a scheme game versus them. Can you out scheme them? Because all the other shit, Like the Niners aren't gonna be phased by that crap. Can you can you outthink them? Can

you out call like Andy Reid? Can you out call plays against whatever their their looks are offensively or defensively? And you saw today it wasn't really a fair fight. Now, I, like you said, I'm gonna give them the benefit of doubt, little gas. I think if you told me there was a rematch, I would expect a much better Philly fs. But I do think big picture, do they have like their head coach, he's not calling the plays on either side.

He's just kind of screaming on the sideline like the forty nine ers guy is their play caller, Like it's him versus you. You know, so I that's a disadvantage for the Eagles.

Speaker 1

You know, here's the utter thing is I I'm trying to think of a roster who fungus injury, although painful, they can protect it the good pass rush. I don't think there's been a roster as good to San Francisco since the Seahawks roster that won a Super Bowl but went to too straight that that roster just didn't make. That was such a good roster. You're not really allowed to do that anymore. Again, Russell was on a rookie deal. Comminity wasn't the roster wasn't good. Perty's on a rookie deal.

But I'm trying to think of a roster. I mean, that's I remember that Seattle team was so good that they went and just rented Percy Harvin almost never used him as a toy. And then they went and got Cliff Averel said yeah, we'll bring another pass rusher. And You're like, yeah, that's a luxury of a rookie contract.

You can't do that with a veteran quarterback. But I think this roster, you know, I find myself rooting for San Francisco to win because it would be such a shame if this roster didn't at least want like that Seattle roster. John it was too damn good not to win a Super Bowl. It was just too good. That was just fundamentally too good. The Ravens roster with Dilferd, there's like seven Hall of famers. I grew up with the Steelers in the seventies. There were a couple of

Raider teams. You're like, yet the Cows Jimmy Johnson roster, they need to win a Super Bowl. There's too many good players. All right, time for another edition of Sharper Square. Chad Milman, c CEO Action Network. All olds provided by Draft Kings. All right, let's start sharp Square. So let's go underdogs first. I'm prone to like underdogs. Saints are all beat up. You got a new coaching staff with the Panthers trying to impress the owner who's an impulsive,

impatient man. Saints have been an underachieving team all year. I'm gonna take Bryce Young plus five against the division rival.

Speaker 2

Sharper Square, totally sharp play. This one has been moving cole. This line opened at six and a half on Sunday. Wise guys immediately started betting it. By Monday morning, it's down to five. Right, and look, nobody thinks the Saints are what the Saints were expected to be in the beginning of the year. Jamis Winston He's eight and nineteen against the spread as a favorite in his career. Dennis Allen one of the most unprofitable coaches against the spread

in his tenure of the past twenty years. They're one to nine this year as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Panthers defense has been improving. They got j cd hornback last week. He is a difference maker in the backfield, defensive backfield, and the Saints just haven't been very good, like everyone talks about their defense. Defense is like thirtieth in EPA per play in the past six weeks. So not a good spot for the Saints, and that's why the wise guys are playing them.

Speaker 1

All right, Denver plus three last week against a really, really well coached defense, they got turnover prol but the previous four to five weeks they weren't. There are limitations to the offense, but they're not a turnover heavy offense. They were last week on the road. The Chargers don't create turnovers. I thought that the performance against New England was staggeringly bad. Shockingly It's as if the law locker room quit. But the Patriots were so bad they still

couldn't beat them. I would take the Broncos in a rivalry game here plush three sharper square.

Speaker 2

Yeah, definitely the sharp side. Nobody likes to bet the Chargers as favorites. Even last week, the wise guys were betting the Patriots and they got you know, unfortunately, it was basically a bad beat. It was a baseball scorer six to nothing in the line started at six and moved on a little bit similar here, like we're talking about a Division underdog. Last five years, they cover fifty seven percent of the spread fifty percent of the time

when they are the road dog. The Broncos last week, aside, they had their moments, they had a shot to cover and win against the Texans even playing terribly. So now they're getting a much better coach in a smash spot for the wise guys. They are on the Broncos.

Speaker 1

Seahawks plus ten and a half at the Niners Philadelphia's That win is impressive. As we've often talked about after a great win, teams pull back Seattle at six and six, and the Rams are coming hard, desperate. You know, I'm not a Geno Smith fan, but there's weapons here. This is a rivalry game, it's the season for Seattle. I thought this was one of my favorite picks on the board. Sharper square, totally sharp. What's interesting here is this number.

It's kind of stabilized on Sunday night, opened about twelve, twelve and a half thirteen. Immediately that number got that down, and you do have a lot of things here. Look you, it is as high as high as it gets on the Niners right now, right their four game win streak. When Deebo and Trent Williams are playing, they are nine to zero. They're beating teams by three touchdowns when that duo is on the field. Brock Party where it's invincible. When those guys are playing and he has those weapons.

Speaker 2

Here's the challenge. They are coming off that Eagles win. That's why the number opened so high. That's why the wise guys immediately bet it down to ten and a half. Again, road dogs in the division the past five years, fifty seven percent against the spread.

Speaker 1

You're playing with.

Speaker 2

Fire because we do have a lot of evidence how good the Niners have been. But as a professional vetter, you have to take the Seahawks in this spot. The president will tell you long term that as a value play.

Speaker 1

Okay, So I've had this theory that if you don't have a quarterback on your roster that can duplicate to some degree Lamar Jackson and you're an NFC team, you're screwed going to Baltimore. Seattle got buried, Detroit got buried. Matt Stafford is going to get buried. The Rams have been doing it. They face the backup quarterbacks, some pretty lousy defenses. They've been at home. Rough spot for an NFC traveling to a different time zone early game. I love the line at minus seven. Don't love it as

much at minus seven and a half. But Baltimore's done this time and time again as a home favorite against West Coast teams. Ravens minus seven and a half.

Speaker 2

Sharper square well at seven and a half, it's square at seven. It's neutral. There's no huge consensus here. The Rams are getting played at seven and a half. There's a couple of things that are tempting the wise guys. Seven and a half is just a huge number, right. You can easily see the Rams are down by two touchdowns. Game is out of reach. They got two minutes left. You know Sean McVeigh is not going to take his foot off the gas. Matthew Stafford in that spot, can

we get find his receivers. The Ravens are playing a little bit more lax, and they cover the back door at seven and a half because you know you got the hook at seven. It's a little bit more cautious for the Wise guys. There's one factor here. Lamar Jackson as a favorite of more than three is not very good. Twenty one and thirty one against spread, so and Lamar Jackson is a favorite more than three at home not very good. John Harbaugh historically incredibly profitable, not very good

as a favorite of more than three at home. So this is not a great spot for the Ravens. However, they have been turning it around a little bit this year. That Colts game, I think was in anomaly. We saw with the Seahawks, we saw it with the Lions, but don't remember, don't forget those games were under a touchdown, So you're playing with fire if you're going to take seven and a half.

Speaker 1

One of my favorite lines of the week. Now the line's gotten a little out of hand, but Cleveland minus three and a half. So Christian Kirk surgery out Trevor Lawrence out c J. Bethort against one of the best defenses in ten years, and the Cleveland defense much better at home. If you watch the Browns of the Browns Rams game, Joe Flackall was good, shockingly good. Offensive coaches taking back up quarterbacks this year and I can give you six It's worked quickly, and O'Connell Dobbs worked quickly

I'm gonna take the Browns to cover. I think it's a blowout. I think they blow out a Jags team. CJ. Bethard is a borderline NFL guy.

Speaker 2

Sharper square, Well, it's sharp, and that's why the number has moved so aggressively, like it moved obviously when the Trevor Lawrence injury happened. And you know now knowing it's going to be CJ. Bether But don't forget. You've lost Christian Kirk, You've lost Cam Robinson. They've lost people on defense, which was already a bad secondary. Now you're going to have a massive amount of wind and rain in a game that is going to be very, very ugly. This

defense for the Browns is different at home. Ten points per game at home, thirty points per game on the road. They are relatively healthy. Forget about Joe Flacco for a second.

Speaker 3

You're just talking.

Speaker 2

About the advantages that Cleveland has at the defensive unit playing against a litany of backups for the Jags. So the wise guys have continued to play this and they're still playing at three and a half.

Speaker 1

Another damaging story comes out about Sean McDermott, how one of his coaches got a truck paid for by players. It's just bad pr end of last season to now with the Bills, Kansas City lost to a really red hot Jordan Love. I think the Packers now are playing really good. I think they were a bad PI miss by the officials from scoring a tying touchdown. So I think we're overplaying because it was a wildly popular game and highly viewed. We're overplaying the problems with the Chiefs.

They are favored by only one and a half against the Bills, who I just think, going back to last year's playoff game, are a bit of a mess inside the walls of that organization. I'll take Kansas City to cover Sharper square.

Speaker 2

Well, look, the line has moved in the Bills direction before this story that you're referring to came out, and this line opened at three, immediately got that down to two and a half, then two, then one and a half some places, one, which to me is insane, and I think it is a huge overreaction to the troubles that Kansas City has had, like you said, and also an overreaction to the Bills being competitive against the Eagles, losing a really bad game, having the week off and

now needing to win this game to get to the playoffs. Haven't the Bills been desperate for like a month and it hasn't mattered, right, So why is this game going.

Speaker 3

To be any different?

Speaker 2

And to your point about Patrick Mahomes, Look, I bet the Packers plus six last week on Monday Night, and there is nothing that feels worse than having the team that is playing against Patrick Mahomes. When Patrick Mahomes has the ball at the end of the game, and look, he made a bad pass, he got beat on that interception, but you're right one pi away from probably getting to the end zone and making that a twenty seven twenty

seven game. I don't want to bet against Patrick Mahomes as less than a field goal favorite in November and December when he's at home. So if you're telling me I got to get Patrick Mahomes and he's just got to win by one point, come on. Of course we're taking the Chiefs.

Speaker 1

All right, it's time to talk me into this one. Eagles plush three and a half, despite the fact they will have played the Cowboys and the Bills and the Niners and the Cowboys again and all these tough teams Kansas City mixed in. There is a fatigue, right, but I do think it's being overvalued. This is a good team that had won twenty four of twenty six, Cold leading trailing Warm Windy. They win three and a half

divisional game, Cowboys may win. But the hook I'd take, why isn't everybody seeing this as an obvious Eagles play.

Speaker 2

Part of it is scheme. The Eagles have been exposed in the middle of their defense. They just can't cover, and we saw that with the forty nine Ers. They just destroyed the Eagles with a scheme that can be very similar to what the Cowboys are trying to do. Right Mike McCarthy all year talking about playing a style of West Coast offense that he had done with the Packers, and you know they're changing it up a little bit.

But if you look at what Dak is doing this year, Key and Ceede Lamb are making connections and that ability to drive the slant route and connect on that is going to be really challenging for the Eagles, especially in the middle of the defense for them. So I think that's one reason. Also, the Eagles have not been running the ball lane. Johnson injured. I think that's a huge

tell for the wise guys. But the truth is, Colin, you look at every metric, you look at number of bets, you look at an amount of money, it's pretty split fifty to fifty, which is why this thing has basically stayed where it is. There was the initial push opened at two and a half. Wise guys took the two, they took the three, and now it's a three and a half. It hasn't gone up to four because everything is basically stabilized. So I think this is where it's

going to be for a little while. No consensus. I'm on the Cowboys for what it's worth.

Speaker 1

All right, finally, dumpster diving, what's the game I missed?

Speaker 3

Well, look, we got two options here. One.

Speaker 2

I can't believe you didn't bring up the Bears getting three and a half at Now, that's an interesting one, so talk about that. To me, this is a no brainer. And the Bears opened at five. Wise guys bet it down immediately. It settled at three and a half within about twenty four to forty eight hours. Number One, the Bears defense has been playing really, really well the past seven weeks compared to the Lions, defense, which has been getting shredded, and they're missing McNeil in the middle of

their defensive line. That is a huge impact that people who know football are talking a lot about. So now you're getting a team on the road, playing in Chicago where weather is going to be a factor. Jared both in his career averaging less than fourteen points per game when the weather is under fifty degrees against a team in justin field a lot of our po We've seen what they've been doing when he is on the field since his injury. A lot more running. They kept this

game close against the two weeks ago. They beat the Vikings last week. This Bears team doesn't get credit for how much more it's improved since the bye week. So the wise guys are on the Bears one more. Well, you mentioned backup quarterbacks and you talked about sort of they're getting these opportunities to shine quickly. Jake Browning did not play well in his first game against the Steelers, but he played very well in his second game against

the Jags. Very accurate. Look at what this Colts team has done. Who have they beaten up the Panthers, the Patriots very lucky against the Titans last week to get a win and continue this winning streak. So is this a Jake Browning spot? The wise guys think so. The wise guys have been betting this game down. The Bengals opened about two to two and a half. It's now down to one. I think if you can get the Bengals as an underdog, you still take it.

Speaker 1

Chad Melman. All odds provided by DraftKings, CCO Action Network. Enjoy NBA in season tournament You bet brother, h.

Speaker 2

M M.

Speaker 1

The volume

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