The volume This week on Prime Cuts, Chad Millman Sharper Square. We've both been pretty hot recently, John Middelkoff on Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love and Caleb Williams and my top takes of the week. You know, my first takeaway on Philadelphia's resounding win in the second half, you know they just leaned on them. Is so much of Miami. I've been calling him the speedboat of the NFL. You know, the fake Gucci shoes, loafers, the fake gold watch, the speedboat. You know,
it's really fast and really flashy and really fun. But this team's not built for November, December, January football. And that's why the Kansas City Chiefs are the current dynasty. They can do both. They can play real defense and dominate the line of scrimmage and be flashy and fun. Miami has yet to prove they can just do the flashy fun stuff which flourishes in September and October November,
and then it doesn't. So the two teams that have faced them, Buffalo and Philadelphia, that are physical teams, have pushed them all over the ring. But let me talk about Philadelphia first. That you know, I don't like the aesthetics, the optics of the brotherly shove, the tush push, whatever you want to call it. And I do think you have to worry about I mean, the NFL's a TV show. It is. Baseball has never understood this. Networks have helped them a little over the last few years, but the
NFL's always understood. We make our money in TV. We're a TV show. It's not good TV. It's why the NFL's cut back on preseason games. Empty seats looks bad. It's why the NFL got rid of the no catch rule. It looked bad. It's really smart. You're a TV show. That's where all the money comes from. So I don't think it looks very good, and I don't think you want everybody in the league doing it. But I was thinking about this tonight. Why does the tush push the
broaderly shove work for Philadelphia? Well, two reasons. They have the best center, Jason Kelson probably in over a decade in the NFL top five center ever. And Jalen Hurts, a small, powerful, six hundred pound bench press quarterback, was built for it. Well, that's just the coach identifying the talent of his players. Innovative ingenuity. Don't we want to reward that in all businesses. It's not like the Eagles
have a passive owner. You know, Jeffrey Lourie owns it, and they have this guy that owns five percent, and he's a shoe designer and he created a cleat that he put a patent on that he won't let anybody else build. And the cleat has an ability to has some sort of physical advantage over other shoes in the NFL, and nobody else can buy it or use it or no. That feels like the Houston Astros. This is a coaching
staff saying hurts his strength, Jason Kelsey. And they design a play that people are trying to duplicate and they can't. It's a business model nobody can duplicate. And for that reason, because I'm all for trying new stuff, I kind of respect the hell out of it. It's not good to look at. I wouldn't want to see. You know, when the Wildcat started, thank god, it didn't work very long. Do you really want the NFL hiking the ball to a tailback? It's not It doesn't look good. And this
stuff matters. I mean, the commissioners that understand the television dynamic and baseball. You know, Bud Seely didn't. He was he was leaning into steam heads and traditionalists. They're not paying the bills TV is. So I don't love the look of it. I don't love the look of it. I think, you know, some teams are trying to duplicate it with six five quarterbacks and six six quarterbacks and skinny quarterbacks. It doesn't work, but it is innovative. There's
a genius to it. It's a coaching staff identifying it, kind of like it, learning to like it. So it was an upset weekend in the NFL as the Vikings, who played several levels above themselves, beat the forty nine Ers twenty two to seventeen at home, surprising for a lot of reasons. The Vikings weren't very good this season, the Niners were excellent, and that Kirk Cousins historically shrinks
in primetime games. He has a bad record on Monday Night Football and against playoff teams in his career, and was about after that first interception was about as good as I think I've ever seen Kirk Cousins play. We also saw the bill's big favorites get beat by the you know, BB gun offense of the New England Patriots. A couple of small upsets, but four to one win. Teams went on to win this weekend, and it happens
in the NFL. The margins are much closer. It's why the NFL is so much more popular than college football is because you go into a college football weekend and you know, if you get two upsets, it feels really special. In the NFL, you get weekends like this when teams that are going nowhere beat teams with a really good shot to make the Super Bowl. You know, again, I said this today on FS one. I don't think less
of the Detroit Lions getting clobbered by the Ravens. NFC teams are one in sixteen against Lamar Jackson, right Like, if you've never played against Lamar Jackson live, it's a shock to the system. You get avalanched. The way to beat a Lamar Jackson a team like that is you know you're playing repeatedly and can figure out la Rubik's cube a little on how to slow down Lamar Jackson. So you know, I don't think anything less of the
forty nine ers. I think the forty nine Ers. When they have Trent Williams back and Deebo Samuel and I have a complete unit. They won't be playing. There's a good chance they will be playing a playoff game or two at home. But needless to say, this just happens in the NFL. I do think there's one thing to worry about if you're the forty nine ers. They've been kind of injury plagued, not ravage, but injury plagued for
several years. It's becoming an older team. Trent Williams and Kittle Bosa's got some you know, a lot of physicality and miles on those tires. There's a lot of you know, the linebackers. They've been in the league for a while, and so as you get older, you have more injuries. You just hope collectively everybody's ready to go by the playoffs. But last year the defensive coordinator was Demiko Ryans. So he is a former player, very good. He was a
quick rising star as a coach. The Niners named him as like, you know, a defensive coach, linebacker, coach coordinator, head coach Texans. I mean it was four or five year period. He flew through the organization of the forty nine ers, and I can remember, like his third year, people saying, Oh, this guy's going to be a head coach, and you're like, he was just playing years ago. He didn't go to the college level, he didn't bounce around the league. He coached for one team, the Niners. Quality
control on defense, linebacker, defensive coordinator gone. And he's been excellent so far with the Houston Texas. Steve Wilkes college head coach for a year, losing record, NFL head coach for a year disaster, was fired, then went to Carolina interim. But Steve Wilkes bounced around college and pro coaching forever, a lot of jobs, a lot of cities. Was not a rising star, and like we've all had, most of us have had like one boss that's just exceptional. I mean,
I've been in this business thirty years. I've worked with some really good people. Haven't had, you know, only a couple of like wow, and they usually in and out of the building quickly. Right. It's rare for anybody in any business. You know. You see sometimes you have a coworker or a boss and you're like, Wow, they're a visionary.
That person, she's great, he's great. They just and that was Demikol Ryans flew through the Niners organization, first team he coached with, and he was gone head coach, and so I think they're just not as good. I noted this several times on FS one. They're not as good in the red zone defensively as they have been in previous years. And it's I think that's a coaching thing. You know, we always talk about offensive coordinators, but we
rarely talk about big leaps with defensive coordinators. Dan Quinn for the Cowboys has certainly been excellent, but I mean if you look at the Vikings tonight, I mean Kirk Cousins in that offense, four hundred and fifty two yards with an average O line, no justin Jefferson. They moved off Dalvin Cook and they passed for almost three hundred and eighty yards, six point eight yards of play, twenty four first downs, eight for thirteen on third down. You know,
you lose to me, Ko Ryans. They've lost their edge. They're not The Niners are not as good situationally coaching on defense, brock Purty was you know, now we've seen brock Purty last couple of weeks playing from behind, and you know it's not quite as special as I've said many times. I think brock Purty's good, and I thought tonight you saw Troy Aikmann pointed this out. Brock Purty six to seven times throws the ball down the field,
higher risk throws, and throws it accurately a lot. Now, he had a couple of picks won, a bad pick could have been on the receiver. But you know, I've said this about Jordan Love, he just can't throw the ball down the field. He's completing thirty eight percent of his throws ten plus yards. Like Green Bay's got a problem at quarterback. Rock Purty moves well enough, throws the ball aggressively down the field and for the most part,
very accurately. But there's a big difference in this league playing with a lead and a run game at home and trailing the entire game on the road. And Brian Flores is bringing heat with every snap, sometimes to his detriment, like that Christian McCaffrey touchdown. But that's a different ballgame. Playing from behind, you've got to throw. Everybody knows it.
Brian Flores tends to be hyper aggressive. Just a different ballgame, and so there's very few quarterbacks in my life that you can't distinguish a difference between their playing with the lead or trailing. I think Brady was one of them, Elway was one of them. Patrick Mahomes is one of them, and I can't think of a fourth. Another topic I had today is I thought it was a gut scene.
One of my favorite things about Dana White in the UFC is sort of this quality that he is willing to put himself out there and be completely vulnerable and be hated. During COVID, you know, a lot of people in the media was really pushing back when Dana White went and leased an island, and he just said, I don't give a rip. I don't think my fighters are in peril, in danger. I'm going to go to an island. And he was right. Thirty five year old athletes were
not in danger. Kids were not in danger, despite what the media wanted to claim. And so Dana again took a big swing recently with bud Light. So blud Light Real Men of Genius, very popular beer, and then they had a marketing pivot to something that I thought was for a lot of people, it was just it was too much, too quickly, but I wasn't outraged by it, because I don't know if I've ever had a bud light. I'm not a full outrage guy. And one of the things I thought about is the UFC fans have pushed
back on Dana and Dane's pushed back on them. Is that one of the things I've always appreciated about Dana, whether and Dana and I have gone back and forth on stuff, whether Dana and I agree on things, He's totally upfront with me. I try to be totally upfront with him. He's confrontational, I can be. We've resolved any brief issues we've had, and we don't really have many, because I think I really respect him and he's always
been good to me. But one of the things that happened, so I went to three UFC cards this summer, and I knew Donald Trump was going to be at one or two of them. I knew that beforehand, but I wasn't going to let Trump, who I think is a buffoon and a narcissist, get in the way of my fun. And the reason being is there's an old adage be less selfish. I don't believe in it at the volume I believe our motto should be be more selfish, because more selfish means happy and less fake outrage. You don't.
You don't really care what the marketing campaign for bud Light is. He just needed something to be outraged by. Remember years ago people outraged by the Dixie Chicks. Let's be honest. You didn't love their music. That's okay. Wasn't my cumpany either? Is that when you're selfish? And by the way, you loved Michael Jordan. He was selfish all you MJ fans. MJ didn't pass punch the teammate. People called him an ass, difficult. You don't like Lebron. Lebron
passes and elevates others. You loved Kobe and MJ. Tom Brady didn't let his backup have snaps. He wanted to Garoppolo out of town. Selfish. I'm on team Tom. Garoppolo shouldn't get snaps, Brady should get all of them. Do you want to win Super Bowls? Garoppolo's not the guy Brady was. Do you want to want titles? Don't pass to Matthew dela Vedova take the shot. Lebron, Michael Jordan take more shots. Kobe take more shots. People look at selfish as mean. I look at selfish as often realistic
and happy. I care about my wife and my children, my business, my employees, and a small group of friends. I go to UFC cards even if Trump is there. Why would I let Trump get in the way of my happiness. I'm going to be selfish and have fun. I took my cousin Matt, and then my friend Eric and his kids. I didn't care if Trump was there. I would never vote for Trump. I'm not gonna let Trump dissuade my plans get in the way of my happiness. The athletes that we truly love are selfish. Brady MJ.
Kobe Shaq. I mean, how many commercials does Shaq have? Six hundred? He think he's worried about you. He's worried about his commercials and his bank. Good for Shack. Shaq takes care of Shack. Oh for the record, Travis Kelcey, who's dating Taylor Swift, who's worth like four billion dollars, hated a Pfiser commercial and above like commercial. He's not pretending he's outraged. He's taking care of Travis Kelcey in his business. I don't have to agree with it, but
he's not faking outrage. He's being sort of selfish. And I love the Chiefs and I'm gonna keep watching them because they're usually the most entertaining team in the league. On Sunday, am I not gonna watch the Chiefs and Travis Kelcey. I can't watch that whole pfisor thing. You don't want to get a vaccine, don't get one? What do I care? But I want to watch Travis Kelcey. Is that when I see all this outrage and I can't believe this politician and this band and this beer company,
I don't care. I just want to have fun and be happy. I have people occasionally say, you know, Colin, you have a great job. I'm like, yeah, I get up, I get to talk about sports. It's just I'm happy. When I first met my wife, she said, you just really you live your best life. I'm like, yeah, I'd love you to be part of it. But I don't have a lot of time to be unhappy. Jerry Jonzoa says this, I don't have a lot of time for a bad time. You view selfish as mean, I viewed
as happy. Dana White said they want to pay us one hundred million. We had multiple beer sponsors interested. I'm gonna go and get bud Lights money and do a business deal with bud Light. If you don't want to watch UFC, don't. I'll take your seats. I'll take your seats, but I don't let people get in the way of my fund. Politicians, beer companies, ad campaigns, musicians, Hollywood. What do I care what a Hollywood writer votes. If the
show's funny, I watch. I figure everybody that works for Netflix, who writes and acts is probably left leaning. I probably disagree with them that ninety percent of the political views. No, I care if the show's funny. I'm watching Netflix and Jill John Middlecoff, former NFL scout three and out at the volume so. I had said on this podcast and on FS one multiple times that I had heard from a source I trust who had been around the Packers during the Jordan Love years. There was just no special
It wasn't bad game manager. We saw how cautiously they coached him in the preseason. We know they give their quarterback protection. They've got excellent backs, young but emerging tied and wide receivers. Today, Jordan Love again if you didn't watch the game, you're like, well, one interception, a couple of touchdown passes. You know, he's like twenty for twenty eight. Well, one of the touchdown passes was a deflection. The other one could have easily been intercepted. It was a jump ball.
And one of his biggest plays of the day was a dump off to a running back and the Broncos defense surrendered thirty yards. Is that it's it really becomes dump down stuff. I don't see him accurately consistently throw the ball down the field. I I mean, now, Russell Wilson's lost confidence. He missed on a four yard swing pass that he threw too low. He was like pushing the ball. That's a quarterback who's lost confidence. But I watched Jordan Love, and you're a former NFL scout, like
you can't. I don't see it. I don't see it at all. It's game managing four years in.
Yeah, what do you Today? Was ugly?
Obviously, Denver's terrible on defense. We've seen all season long, and like you said, the only plays they could really mustered up to get any flow in their offense, I mean early on, their offense was pretty embarrassing. Were screen passes were screened. We're schemed up kind of wide receiver screen.
Yes to me.
The two touchdowns, like you said, if you just go to the box score, you're like, ah, I threw two touchdowns. I think Sirtaan picks that off seventy percent of the time, the one the jump ball and the other pick. The majority of time that bass tipped. It always lands into defender's hands and he takes it one hundred yards the other way.
So I'll get the Packers credit on this one though.
And we've seen teams be in position where they pick up the fifth year option when they shouldn't, or they don't pick up a fifth year option. They's let it play out. Like the Giants, they extended this guy on basically a backup quarterback contract. Remember they gave him like eleven million dollars over two years. They are going to be in position they have some young pieces. Right, you can still get a quarterback. You could easily put him
back to the backup spot. Financially, didn't screw yourself. You took a calculated risk, But clearly the contract told you what.
They kind of believed in them.
Right, They're like, we're not picking up the fifth year option. We're not giving you some extension here. Give you eleven million dollars going right for a backup quarterback, three four five million dollars a year.
Nothing crazy.
If he's a backup quarterback, has to play an individual game, not terrible, but I think with every snap that plays out, probably pretty clear that they.
Don't have their next Aaron Rodgers on their hand.
Yeah, and so right now they're probably gonna draft in the you know, in the somewhere between twelve and six.
They're not very good colin. I mean they are. The more you watch them, you're like, this team five wins.
Yeah. And so let's say they draft eleven. You could get I don't think bon Nicks rises to that. You could get Pennix potentially, you're not gonna get Caleber Drake May, but you could get the third or fourth best quarterback. And I think, you know, I will say this because I think they hit on receivers and tight ends and the last couple of drafts I like all of them. And they got the Reid kid from Michigan State. I
think he's from. Yeah, they added Yeah, they added another piece with Watson and Romeo dops, so they have good young receivers. If you go get another quarterback, you can bring a veteran in, spend some money and bring up bring a veteran in now because you got a bunch of young kids at tight end, wide receiver. Probably got a draft your next David Baktiari. But they don't have a lot of huge holes, so they usually go defense. Green Bay does in the first round. Probably time to
go get another quarterback. Remember, if you hit on one of two, that's better than the league average.
And the other thing.
If you're a Packer fan, which probably feels because you're not used to this, it's going to be a long season. Look at the NFC big picture right beside, like the Niners in the Eagles. Yeah, obviously the Lions are got exposed a little bit today, a lot today. It's not like you are playing in a conference with seven star young quarterbacks. So if you can within a year turn the thing over a little bit and just get to nine wins, you can compete to be a wildcard rams battle.
You watch some of these teams, you know they are not. The drop off after the top two teams roster wise in the NFC is not like the AFC, because, hey face, we talked about the Chargers. They get the right coach all of a sudden, they're an eleven win team next year.
Right, right, Hey brock perty right now and Geno Smith exact playoff quarterbacks. Right, So the NFC is very watered down. I want to talk about the early game of the day and it was my kind of favorite pick. I really like the Ravens at home against Detroit. Now, Detroit's not the Detroit of the last three years, where golf last two years, where golf can only win at home, only on the Dome, only a certain way. It's a different team. It's great old they can run. I thought
it was a bit of a snake pit. I did not like this matchup for Detroit. Baltimore's a tough place to play, and I said, I think I told you this last week. I thought Baltimore's first half in London against Tennessee was the best half of football I've seen any team play in the league. I think Lamar right now is playing easily the best football. And for all the things the Ravens do well, they haven't in the last six seven years been a great wide receiver organization.
The opposite of the Steelers. But say Flowers Odell, I think Lamar is healthy, he's got a contract. He feels buoyed by that. I mean, I think he's playing with a ton of confidence. He's very happy now that's not hanging over him. A guy that runs a lot and gets hurt, is he going to get paid? He's paid, He's happy. I don't think less of Detroit today. I think San Francisco and the Ravens today, and then Kansas City after what I saw. But I'm tempering it because
it was the Chargers defense. I think Baltimore's a rate football team right now. I don't think Harball is a special teams guy. The defense top five, the offense top five, and Lamar. You know, contracts do different things to different people. I think Lamar it's really helped him because there was that.
Now he can play full speed. Now he plays. Listen, man, if you run around, you've been banged up, and you're staring at three hundred million dollars, and I'd be like, you know, if I was stared at three hundred million.
Dollars at twenty six years old, right, you'd be like, I'm gonna run out of bounds on this one.
He's playing with like, Hey, I got my money, I'm just gonna go win games. I think Lamar right now, I'm not serious. There are a lot of sundays he's the second best player in the league to Mahomes. I think he is so good right now.
Well, two things.
Knowing some people there, I know last year when it got weird, they never thought it was that weird because they really trusted the guy that they've all the people that have been around him the whole time, his character, everything that he stood for. They understood that the contract situation was kind of its own little thing and it was throwing him off. But they always win football, like football came first for Lamar obviously. This year, think about
that Division two contracts Deshaun Watson. That thing's been weird NonStop. Shoulder injury today, injury, it just feels. And their team talent wise is every bit as good as these top teams, but the Deshaun Watson situation is all just out of whack. When you look at the Ravens today, they showed up like Mike Tyson in his prime. That thing was over in the first quarter. It was a knockout blow to me, if I was doing a little herd hierarchy AFC, I
would still have the Chiefs won. They've earned it, like they're just the resume of all those guys and their coach.
I would have the Ravens two in the AFC, though, Yeah, the.
Way they're playing, and like we talked about earlier, if somehow, if I'm the Ravens like getting those home games, I do not want to go to Kansas City. Obviously they have one less loss than you right now, but you know, Kansas City's probably a fourteen and three team. You got to keep stacking these wins because I do think the home field advantage for a team that's face that.
The other elephant the room.
Is Lamar hasn't had that much, really hasn't had any postseason success. So that's an element too. Going to Kansas City. I gotta do everything humanly possible to try to get that one. See, because I'm with you, Lamar is he the MVP right now? I mean basin the mid the end of October.
I think he is. And I think again he's playing. He's playing with great confidence. Money can ruin players. It's made him a better player. Yeah, and by the way this team, this receiving group, they're only going to get better. They've only played six games together, right, Like, like Odell's knew, you know last year, Lamar's not healthy. Now they got the rookie wide receiver. It's like, oh, they're good now. We also said this, that's the fastest team in the league right now.
He doesn't get enough credit. Mahomes didn't save Kansas City, he just elevated them.
Right.
The Ravens were dead before Lamar. John Harbaugh's career was heading in the wrong direction in Baltimore. I'm not he would have got a job somewhere else. But the Flacco situation that the team was just kind of it just felt like it had run his course. They had lacked juice, and he came and he's not just resurrected that franchise, turned them into perennial power. And it does feel, like you said, adding as a Flowers, Mark Andrews playing really well.
The scheme with Todd Munkin, Like I was nervous that they were gonna try to get away from what they do well, right, but they've kind of integrated a more explosive passing offense.
Yet he's still very active as a mover.
I wouldn't call him running like he did in twenty nineteen tenty twenty, but his his activity level as an athlete is still there, and it throws you. He had a touchdown today I think to go up twenty when nothing kind of scrambled around. It was just I don't know who else had that in the bag in the NFL.
Well, it's almost like Jamie Foxx was so naturally funny you forgot how good of an actor he was. Right like, you're like, he can sing too, Yeah, but he was so naturally funny and good looking and funny that you forget, like of you you ever watched his movies. Lamar was so gifted running. I don't think we've ever given them credit. Shit in the pocket, But for the record, he's the other guy in the league. Side arms it running left, can throw it, can go the deep ball, can run right.
Like a lot of guys when they move Mahomes and Lamar, when they move, their accuracy doesn't dip, which is hard, right you think about it, Think about you're moving, You're going up and down. Lamar moving his feet are good. I just when I watched that game today, it's one of those. Detroit's better than that. If they played in Detroit, it would be better. But Detroit looked a little plodding. Baltimore looked like a track team. US he close lost
once again. The defense couldn't make a stop. So I think the defensive side, I think you can shore up a lot of what they do with a new defensive coordinator. With Alex Grinch losing, you know, moving on. I do think Bear Alexander will play in the pros. I think they have a linebacker who's a probe. I think they've got a safety that's a pro. They don't have Michigan talent. They don't have Bama Georgia talent. But if you went to like team six to team sixteen in the college
football world, their talents somewhat comparable. I mean, Washington doesn't have great talent. They have a good edge rusher. Here's something let me throw at you. What's really regressed has been their offensive line, and you're like, they got a couple NFL guys there. They absolutely upgraded with transfers. They actually have some depth on the interior due to recruiting. What's happened as I watched them, I think Caleb is just ad libbing a lot more than he was last year.
Between the confidence, the heisman, the power, the nil money, he's sort of doing his own thing. And it's a little Josh Allen that when you're we always say the Bill's O line is terrible, it's not. They've got a pro bowler, but Josh at times he's a little more This year. I think he's a little more defined or refined. But when Josh is out there running, it's hard. As an offensive lineman. You're kind of at the whim of
what Josh Allen wanted to do. And when I watch USC because their O line looks terrible, but it's not terrible. Their personnel's not terrible. I wonder if Caleb now is sort of like, hey, I'm out of the natty picture, I got my nil money, I'm gonna do what I want to do. You think that could be possible.
Do you remember when the division and really some of the animosity started in Seattle. You know, probably around seventeen eighteen, everyone starts shitting on their offensive line and saying Russell Wilson was running for his life, and a lot of former offensive linemen said, well, he's taken off early and he would make hero ball plays. Now he would make them, so it kind of bandiated. Well, look at what he did, but the result was you should have just stayed in
the pocket. And clearly the coaching staff now everyone just kind of started button heads. I think Caleb's talent is extraordinary, his arm strength, his athletic his ability to throw moving left or right, especially across his body. My home style it's he had to throw last night across his body to the left side. That was only five guys on
this planet can do that. But he definitely has this hero ball syndrome, which might not be all his fault that the program is in somewhat disarray, I do think, and I get this a lot because they're like, oh, your boy, he's hyping Caleb up again, And listen, I'm guilty of this too. We kind of annoyed players as
generational talents or all. He has generational capabilities from an arm standpoint, but as a prospect, like if you go Luck or Lway or Manning, he's short relative to those guys, like the great prospects have all been six four to six y five, right, and he's I talked to a guy who's been around them, thinks he's a shade under six foot one, but he's built like a tank. Yeah,
and he knows that he's very thick and powerful. I do think that all time great prospects up, he's a really good prospect who is gonna go ninety five percent number one overall and worst case snaro.
Go number two overall. But I think we see some plause.
I mean we see some of the numbers now against better teams, Notre Dame and especially Utah, high end defensive players, well coached guys. They're gonna be playing on Sunday, and he doesn't look like he did against Arizona in some of these games. Now, I listen the program, I think banning the reporter, not allowing NFL scouts in there for a month and a half, not having the players talk, like to me, some of their priorities.
It's like, is Nick Saban obsessed with that bullshit? Of course? Not like what is Lincoln?
I don't I think some of their priorities, And I think sometimes I remember when the forty nine ers drafted Hufunga and Drake Jackson and they said, obviously the sc was in shambles. Then with Clay Hilton and they said, you know, Drake Jackson got a bad rap, but so do most players. When coaches are getting fired and things are in disarray, who Fungo was the guy that even people that are getting fired, getting tarnished coaches, they all
had good things to say about him. And that's a very very small percentage of humans that are able to kind of rise above it. And I don't know Caleb, I've never heard bad things, but it does feel like he's kind of in the middle right now of the weirdness. And I gotta start with the blame you, paigu one hundred and twenty million dollars. It does start with the head coach, and it feels like he's lost control a little bit of just some of the basic details of a high end program.
All right, Time for another edition of Sharp or Square. Chad was super sharp, I was kind of sharp. I was three and two last week. All of our odds provided by Draft Kings Chad, of course, to CCEO the Action Network, I'll tell you I have taken more favorites than any other year because I think there's becoming a gap offensively between the halves the quarterbacks that are good and the have nots. And so Monday I made a huge mistake. I took Rock pretty over Kirk Cousins at home,
and Cousins was great. So I'm gonna throw you a game. And it's very number dependent. I don't like it at three and a half, but at three it's interesting. I don't think we're paying attention to how good the Texans are. And just hear me out. They destroyed Pittsburgh, they destroyed Jacksonville. Okay, this is a team that is a play away. They should have beaten the Falcons, although the Falcons was the right side. This team has taken quality teams, playoff teams,
high seeds potentially and destroyed them. Carolina. We lauded them for keeping it close in the first half against Miami. They are in complete utter rebuild. At minus three, I love Houston. At three and a half, I'm a square. But let's say the number drifts back to Texans minus three, which I take is that sharper square, totally sharp.
The wise guys have been on CJ. Stroud from the beginning, and when I say from the beginning, I mean March. There's nobody in the professional petting community who spent a lot of time looking at a tape and spent a lot of money betting on the NFL draft. Who thought, oh yeah, I like Bryce Young over CJ.
Stroud.
It's pretty well known within sort of the inner circle of NFL executive dom that Bryce Young was an owner's pick and that the player most people wanted was CJ.
Stroud.
He lands at the Texans. He's been by far the best rookie quarterback, and not just sort of making good plays and then not making mistakes, but he's made Robert Woods look good. He's made Nico Collins look good.
He's one of the targets back this week too, by the way, I think Tanks Pice. Yeah, that's right.
You know, his worst game, he still ended up leading the team to a touchdown drive in the final two minutes, and then they ended up losing because the defense couldn't stop anybody. But look this guy off of by the wise guys like the Texans that might which is why it's gone up to three and a half.
All right. The Steelers have been out gained in every game, and in fact, they've often been awful for large chunks of the game offensively, but they found ways to win. I think that ends this week. Jacksonville's a better team at two and a half. Jacksonville, I think has a real shot. I mean, what's interesting about Jacksonville three games on a very short period on the road for two
games we were worried how they play against Indy. They keep kind of busting up these trends because they're probably pretty good outside of Kansas City last year where they felt a little overwhelmed. They kind of stack up with everybody when I watch them play minus two and a half, they are the side to me over the Steelers don't care about home in a way. Whether it's not a factory yet sharper square.
Now it's the Steelers are the sharp side. It all may come undone one day for the Steelers, but Mike Tomlin is the most profitable coach in the NFL against the spread the past twenty years. Mike Tomlin against teams that are over sixty percent winning percentage, regularly wins at home as an underdog. Mike Tomlin as an underdog at home sixteen and nine straight up. Forget about against the spread. We saw it last week, We've seen it against the Ravens.
This team is really weird because they played terribly in the first half, and then in the second half the defense starts to grind down the offense a little bit, and TJ. Watt when he's on the field, it's just a different team, right. He tilts the field in the direction of the Steelers. We saw last week the first play the second half interception, runs it back to the three yard line. It catapulted them to a win. I
think the Steelers are better with Deontay Johnson back. It frees up George Pickens to be more of a threat downfield. That makes Kenny Picktt more comfortable. It's just a better offense that set the Jags an interesting team. So I'm a little bit nervous about it, Like there have been times this year. Steelers against the Ravens, Bet it didn't even think about it. Steelers against the Rams last week, Bet it didn't even think about it. I don't know
why I'm a little more nervous about the Jags. But I'm still taking the Steelers, and that's the sharp side.
All right. Another game which I'm undecided now but off of by offensive coach Joe Burrow against a San Francisco team now in a backup quarterback with no Trent Williams or debo. Sam Darnold is built for Kyle Shanahan, perhaps, but I'm not sure if he's built to be inserted missing a left tackle in one of their specialty players. If I get four, it feels like a slam dunk. Cincinnati at three and a half probably still is. I'm
undecided on it, but I've gone back and forth. Jmack and I talked about this on the air and off on FS one. I would think Bingals anything over three would be the side sharper square.
Yeah. I think that's right, and it's your your nail at the number. Similarly to the Texans conversation. You get minus three, you're probably gonna take the Niners. If you can get the hook at three and a half, you can get it at four, then you're going to take the Bengals. I think before before this game, a lot of consensus was going to be on the Niners. They've had some bad luck. They missed a field goal that cost them against the Browns. They missed a field goal,
had three strange uncharacteristic turnovers. Turns out two of them might have come after brock Party was concussed and through interceptions, and they gave up a weird touchdown at the end of that first half against the Vikings on an all out.
Blitz that is just rare for Steve Wilkes to call.
And so this team was coming back home as a five and a half point favorite in a game where I think a lot of wise guys thought, Okay, the Niners are going to get right now, parties out, But I think the consensus is going to be if they're a short favorite, they're still going to back. Then if wise guys can get the hook, they'll take the Bengals. People are not that convinced Joe Burrows back, and he did not look great in the second half of that game they had right before the bye. He's still having
trouble getting the ball downfield. Not great percentage wise throwing the ball downfield. So there's a lot of sort of mixed feelings about this. This is entirely about the number.
Okay, I think Patriots plus nine and a half at Miami feels right, not because they beat Buffalo injuries on the O line. I think it's very clear that Miami has not beaten a playoff team since Week three of last year or what we consider a top end team. It's a lot of fake Gucci loafers and leasing a speedboat. It's fun to look at, but when you dig deeper, don't have much of a chin. Offensive lines bad translation. New England will get pressure. They do usually even against
decental lines. They're running the ball a little better. Mac Jones with confident Belichick buoye by that contract that's public. The team played with a certain swagger. It's not just the Buffalo number. It's a division game. Nine and a half's a ton. I do think weather cools You're not going down to Miami in the swamp in the second week of September. It's not going to be a factor. I think I would have to take New England in the points Sharper square. Yeah, that's the sharp side.
And it's funny you say, sort of the fake guccies and speedboats, right like, Look, Miami is reflection of the city is playing in right now and they have not beaten good teams. And we've talked about this last week. My biggest bet at the season was the Eagles at two and a half over the Dolphins, right, and what we're going to see, what we started to see with the Patriots against the Bills, Bill O'Brien a lot more with Mac Jones under center, a lot more short passes.
That defense, which had lost Matthew Judon, had lost Christian Gonzales started to figure out, Okay, how are we going to play? How are we going to who rush the passer? The Dolphins without key players on the offensive line. I do think Tyreek Hill practice today, so very good chance that he plays on Sunday. But the wise guys, they push this number from ten down to nine and a half, down to nine divisional games, the underdogs and divisional games.
The last decade, sixty games above five hundred against the spread, and we got a few of those games this week.
All right. We finish with two things. The first is talk me into a game. I often give it to you, and it's the Rams plus six to six and a half against Dallas. So against Philadelphia and against San Francisco they were clearly outclassed. But the fact that they hung around Pittsburgh. They are in a rebuild. One RAMS player, one high end RAMS player. They have one that's in his prime, Ernest Brown, Cooper, Stafford haven Stein Donald. They're
out of their prime. Pittsburg's probably got nine guys in their prime. They're young. That game was go either way entering the fourth, and it was a Pittsburgh Steeler crowd. So I think McVeigh is doing a remarkable job with an old Aaron Donald and mostly rookies and six round, fourth round picks. I like the coaching here. It's a lot of points. I think the Rams will stay close. They're fairly healthy. I think i'd like the Rams plus the points. But the Vegas is so smart DraftKings it's seven.
I think it's such a great bet for the Rams. It's six and a half. I don't know. You tell me, talk me into it.
So it's interesting you bring this up. This was the biggest debate that me and my bff Simon Hunter had in our podcast, and I love the Cowboys. In this spot, Simon wants to love the Cowboys but can't quite find the exact number, like it's six, six and a half. It's basically lined right, Like you just said, the bookmakers know what they're doing. We cannot find sort of a consensus wise guy opinion on this because the number is so right. I'm all in on the Cowboys for a
couple of reasons. I think they're much more talented. I think I think Mike McCarthy's a terrible coach, and I think he is he is putting his team at a disadvantage inside the red zone. And I think over the course of his career, it has been proven that if any other coach was working with Aaron Rodgers, he probably would have more Super Bowls. Like he's just not a very good play caller. But the Cowboys defense is so good. Their pressure from just four players on the front line
is insane. And the reason the Steelers beat the Rams last week is because of the pressure they got on a terrible, terrible Rams o line. So the opportunity here is to put a lot of pressure on Matthew Stafford and look if he can beat the pressure and get the ball to Puka Nukua. If he can get the ball to Cooper Cup, that changes it. Because the Cowboys do have a lot of issues with their back line.
But we saw against Justin Herbert the Cowboys had thirty three pressures and hit Justin Herbert twenty six times, even though they barely sacked him. Like the end of the game, Micah Parsons got him once, but that impacted him enough that he was making bad throws, rushing throws. So I also like the Cowboys.
Off of by coming home.
Dak when he's at home, covers and he covers Big Dak on the road as an underdog in these games against teams where they are playing opponents who are usually better than them, in the high profile spots that we're used to seeing, that's when he struggles and that's where you see sort of the disadvantage that he has with Mike McCarthy as a coach. But at home, as a favorite, he's a front runner. That's a good spot to get healthy. I like the Cowboys in this spot.
Finally, what did I miss? What's the stinker room that you want to talk me into? There's two of them. There's two of them.
We didn't talk about two ugly division.
Listen, I know Washington's one of them, right that. I looked at that and I thought, you know what's funny about them? Half to half game to game you have no idea what you're getting. But I got to tell you this. There are moments when I watched Sam Hall and I'm like, he's a mid level franchise quarterback. When you give them time to step and throw.
It is pretty good, right, Yeah, that's exactly it. Washington plus six and a half. Look, Denver opened at eight and a half, got bet down to eight by the wise guys, got bet down to seven and a half by the wise guys. Some places, it's seven now. A wise guys love in Denver in the past couple of weeks. First when they played Kansas City, they thought, oh, was Mahomes just off in this game? Is that why the
defense was so good? And then they played Green Bay and Matt Lafloor is really good at scheming his guys open, and Denver did a good job of stopping the Packers plus Javonte Williams six weeks into the season. Seven weeks into the season, much more explosive. You're starting to see Sean Payton give him the ball more. It's why you've seen again Brother Division games, big favorites. The Chiefs not great at covering three and a half.
Not a big cover, big number team.
It's hard to cover big numbers when you're always favored by a big number. Right, So there's a little bit of a self fulfilling prophecy here where you get Patrick mahomes as a short favorite and underdog. He's so good he's gonna win in those games. But if every game you're favored by three and a half to ten, it's hard to always cover in those games. So the wise guys like Denver, and the wise guys love Washington. They think it's a tough spot for the Eagles. They've got
big games coming up. So it's a little bit of a look ahead, a little bit of a trap game on the road.
Is hurts hurt?
We don't know.
Is Lane Johnson struggling? We don't know that often still isn't perfect. So there's some some money coming on the commanders. I like them both.
I bet them both.
Be my buddy.
Be my buddy, Colin, be my bad game betting buddy. I went four and one last week. You went three and two. I went four and one because I went. I made the extra effort. Okay, I made the effort.
You know. The downside to having taste is you you won't go down to the stinkorama game, the dumpster game. Oh, is that what you're calling it?
Taste?
Is that how you're framing this that that is a masterclass and narrative right there. I like it, well done.
All dumpster dive and take Washington. Why not you will? Yeah, I kind of They're all over the map. But I mean Philadelphia comes off a big TV emotional game, late game, little less prep time to division rival, big games ahead. I do think it's the kind of game that you would say to yourself, let's wrest Lane Johnson. You know what I mean. This is a deep team, and we know this that Washington has moments. We know this, so I and Philadelphia has. I thought that Miami game was
the first game. I thought they really played well. And at one point it was seventeen seventeen, So in Miami's really a team Philadelphia's built to beat. Washington's a team that's built to play Philadelphia close, physical trenches, can run it a little. That's I don't think that's big dumpster diving. I looked at that game. You know again, these the wise guys are smart, like like you know, six and a half three and a half, like I like San Francisco. But you make if three and a half four was
Sam Darnold, then it's not as attractive. It's just not a good, bad all right, we gotta go.
I like how this ended up being you know what, I like them. It's no longer dumpster diving. It's really this is the filet. I'm like a home underdog.
I likes right here at the Stanza. I'm grabbing an e Claire out of the garbage.
Just quickly.
It was only there five seconds.
That's that's why you are a multi media mogul.
Yeah, those kind of references quick. All right, buddy, see you.
I'd rather i'll see you later. The volume