The volume.
This is Prime Cuts, the best of the Colin Coward podcast. Kevin Clark tells us how Justin Fields could end one of the most bizarre streaks in the NFL. John Middlecoff and I discussed the big difference between Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers and how it could change everything for their teams. But first, my conversation with the guys on one of the new podcasts we've added to the volume. Fantasy Pros know their shit. I think you'll love it. First though,
my top takes of the week. You know, I was thinking about if you go look at the quarterback position in the NFL, it almost feels corporate. Even Tom Brady's personality was suppressed when he was in New England. It was suppressed. He got a little lively and added some personality in Tampa. But that's the league. It's very corporate.
And what's interesting to me. If I said to you big personality at quarterback, most of the guys I would mention Baker Mayfield, Cam Newton, Jay Cutler, Johnny Manziel don't work. The guys that are kind of cliched and coach speak. It's been through the years sort of Brady, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert Joe Burrow is that personality is wonderful, but what you're basically doing. The more power you have in life, the more you will suppress information because you'll have more
information and it'll be more vital information. I told somebody once when I was in my twenties and thirties, I wanted to pretend I knew everything, and then I got to my fifth these I have more access to stuff, and I suppress more information. Well, when you're a quarterback in the NFL, there are discussions you're having with the coach, the coordinator, and the GM that are not shared with other players. And so what makes Aaron Rodgers very unique.
He's a star quarterback and he's sort of like a rogue, independent personality like most guys that have that. Jeff George was outspoken, Cutler was outspoken. It mostly goes sideways. This is you are the face of the franchise. You do that Wednesday press conference, you stand in front of the media. You're not here to be glib and funny. You're here when they ask tough questions, to be a cooler, to be a blanket, A wet blanket on a possible inflammatory story.
I mean, they did a sketch in the eighties on Saturday Night Live about Joe Montana and Phil Hartman was involved, and the whole joke of the scale was Joe Montana was great, but the most boring man in the world. Because quarterbacks are paid to suppress information, you'll want to bring the temperature down in the room and concentrate on football. That's the opposite of Aaron. Aaron is our e lax. And now with the New York media, who was you know,
they're created to inflame. I think it's a fascinating relationship. And the schedule's tough enough and the old line is concerning enough that the Jets could get pushed around in the opener against Buffalo, and in fact, one of my favorite bets in Week one is Buffalo minus like one and a half against the Jets. I think their defensive front will give the Jets trouble. And I think you're going to be able to identify very quickly what New
York's problem is. That's why it's really important Makai Beckt and Aaron Rodgers the right tackle the quarterback playing against the Giants. It's interesting if it's a turnstile. It's a problem because the Giants have a good pass rush. You know. This is why for years and years I've said I don't mind personality. I don't want it at quarterback. Like Mahomes is funny, he's able to compartmentalize a lot of moving targets. But if you really listen to Mahomes, he
always says the right thing. Aaron often says the most interesting thing. It can be with Pat McAfee, it can be at a press conference. He can be direct, he can be passive, aggressive. So that's who he is at his core. Never married, no kids, independent thinking, one hundred and fifty two hundred and fifty million dollars net worth or more probably three hundred million. So I think that's it's not necessarily going to be volcanic. But if you
look at the big personalities at quarterback, most implode. Aaron at the end of Green Bay certainly didn't implode, but regressed. It just didn't work even in a small media market like it didn't play into his favor. So this is who Aaron is. Right, He's not had to sacrifice a lot in his life due to his talent and his lifestyle. So I can't wait. I absolutely cannot wait to watch it, and I think very early they will struggle to protect Aaron against Buffalo, So we're not going to have to
wait very long that Monday night opener Bill's Jets. From that point forward, we're going to have ourselves a very prickly bumpy story. SEC Commissioner Greg Sanke says the entire playoff structure, which is going to expand to twelve teams in twenty twenty four, needs to be reconsidered because of expansion. And I absolutely agree. This is what I have proposed, and this is what I believe is the truth of the playoff structure. I think it needs to go to sixteen,
eighteen to twenty four teams. I think there is so much money left on the table in college football because of so many of these very small town bowls that nobody attends, nobody really wants to play in. It's just a way to get practices for some of these coaches that half of them nobody shows up to the games. They're awful, they're optically bad, players could get hurt. Great players go into the NFL, don't want to play in them.
Get rid of those things. I think we now have to consider not just twelve teams, but sixteen to eighteen because I think college football needs to take a page from college basketball and have a dramatic, long playoff scenario to cap off the season. It's the icing to the cake. College Basketball's primary issue is the cake isn't very good anymore. The best players don't want to play college basketball, and if they do, it's briefly one year and they're gone.
College football will maintain a high level of integrity and competitiveness and quality because you have to stay in college football minimum three years. Most players stay four, some even five with red shirting. So I mean you see some of these quarterbacks coming out. They're twenty four to twenty five years old now, and so they of college football will remain high. I've never bought into this argument that it'll kill college football rivalries. Really, Auburn Alabama both know
they're getting into a twelve to sixteen team playoff. You're not going to watch the game in Alabama. That game won't mean anything. You'll just skip it and go to the Falcon Saints game in Atlanta the next day. That's so stupid. You love college football or you don't. Rivalries will always matter. Do Carolina still a great rivalry and we know they could meet again and again and again
down the road. It doesn't matter. Great is great. So Greg Sankee, who is the most powerful person in college football, the SEC commissioner, says, hey, we're expanding all these conferences. Let's reconsider the playoff structure. I'm all for it. What the SEC has done better than any conference. They've been willing to evolve, be aggressive annually. And Greg's right. Jim
Harbaugh self imposed three games suspension at Michigan. We heard it was going to be four, right, and then Harbaugh and his guys couldn't agree with it.
Right.
Then it was none. Now it's back to three. The NCAA has always been fairly toothless. They depend on the reporting of newspapers and media to up end programs. They really don't have the ability, very rarely, the staffing or the ability to go into a program and monitor these closely. And now with name, image and likeness, what's cheating. Harbaugh can be a difficult personality. He's strong willed, he's forceful, and he's not going to get pushed around by anybody.
I think in the end, this is probably self imposed three game suspension is probably those are weak games. Michigan ol roll big picture is it. Harbaugh's just not somebody you can push around. When his athletic director a couple of years ago asked him to take a pay cut, what did he do? Upended the staff, interviewed with NFL teams, and has had back to back great seasons. So big, willful personalities are not to be eft with, and Harbaugh is not going to go quietly into the night because
you didn't like his answer. When you're the NCUBA, the toothless NCUBA, I will always defend these coaches. They have to run these programs, deal with nonsense from the nc doublea deal with boosters. Yes, they're highly compensated, but there's a reason they're highly compensated. They create ninety one hundred million dollars in annual revenue to athletic departments. So Michigan's athletic department has been revamped due to Jim Harbaugh's recent success.
There's a total momentum shift, there's a total cultural shift. It is a great day to be a Wolverine these days, not so much a Buckeye. That's because of Jim Harbaugh. I think the self imposed penalty is probably the way to go about it. But we're learning time and time again. Don't try to push around Harbaugh. He's going to have
a strong opinion. We had a discussion after last football season and I said, you know, we really don't have a fantasy group that and I said it's I've always been a better over fantasy, but I said, my friends are fantasy over betting. And I said, anytime I've done a remote and said, how many people play Fantasy, one hundred hands go up? And I'm like, how many people bet and hands go up? But Fantasy, I believe in
America is still it's more popular. And so we were looking for a group that had personality, that was accurate, that was fun, didn't take themselves too seriously, and we listened to a lot of tapes and that you guys were the obvious choice. And it's really exciting for us because, you know, as our company grows, we've got so many different shows, like we have a you know, Daniel Cormier was an actual UFC fighter, he's ringside. Shannon Sharp can
do pop culture and sports. We just didn't your space. We thought we did a poor job on it. Our first two years. We're like, we're just not doing a good job. We had gambling talk, not fantasy, and I didn't think you guys would be available. I mean, to be honest with you.
I was like, well, to be honest, Colin, if if you know, if Colin Coward calls you, you pick up the phone, That's what I would say.
Let's bell which my wife leave that.
That's another show. We can at a time for that conversation today, that's for sure. But Daniel Cormier, by the way, came on with me on the Betting Pros podcast and he was fantastic. We did a whole preview of UFC two ninety one. We talked WWEE he and I because we're both big fans. So it was a great time. And again I encourage everybody. I'm sure you already know about the Volume Network, but the shows they have on
there phenomenally. You got all the athletes who have their own shows on there, and the myriad of different content you guys are doing is just tremendous. And I guess we're just excited, and I'm excited that you're excited. So let's talk about football. Because we've got questions here, all right, and we're gonna land this night for you. The first burning question. I think these are important because this is I always say, you know, we love to talk about
fantasy stuff, but real football and fantasy that intersects. Everything's coming here together. The numbers come around obviously the same thing with some of these situations and how they impact fantasy. First question, I want to ask you, com will the Lions crumble under expectations? It's one thing to be the plucky underdog every single year and all of a sudden you're building this thing. But now you look at Vegas, they're telling you they believe in the Lions. You're telling
the rest of the league believes in the Lions. Do you think that the Lions are ready to believe in themselves as a favorite?
I am as long as the expectations are ten to eleven wins and not twelve, thirteen or fourteen. The NFC is the weaker conference. If you look at Jared Goff's career, it's pretty clear. When he has a clean pocket and protection, he's a really good quarterback. He's not as good outdoors, He's not as good under duress. He's not as good forced to run, but the Lions have a top five
to six offensive line, more than enough weapons. Jared Goff with time to throw in Los Angeles, when he struggled against the Niners, the rams O line couldn't block the Niners D line. He struggled right and McVeigh saw that, And so there's a way. Great quarterbacks don't have to win a certain way. Good ones do. Goff does, but this team allows him to play the way. He's very successful time in the pocket. I think they'll have a
very good run game. Jared Goff throwing on third and two or second and five is a really good quarterback.
Yeah.
I like the expectations too. Ten eleven wins, we start pushing eleven twelve and we start having a bad conversation Justin Fields. Everybody's talking about him. Well, Justin Fields take the next step forward or we fall backwards. In twenty twenty three, I know they give him DJ Moore, They've given a Roshawn Johnson, Deonta Foreman, some upgrade offensive line pieces.
Is that enough?
Are we ready to finally see Justin Fields from Ohio State? Or we're gonna see Justin Fields who has been hit and miss at the quarterback position. Great in fantasy, but that's not everything.
Yeah, I think he'll be a hit because they were last in the league last year in yards after catch, and so between the upgrade at wide resis tight end, and I think the kid that got out of Texas the running back is one of the steals of the draft. He's going to get much more support yards after the catch. That's what makes Kansas City in San Francisco so good.
Brock Purdy gets it out the debo, McCaffrey Kittle. It's yards after contact, it's yards after catch, and so this kid, he was asked to do way too much last year. He just outside of Mooney and Cole Coment, he just didn't have a lot of next level players. Tanyan's a really good pickup Claypool. I'm hitting miss on. DJ Moore's good yards after catch will allow him to throw on third and short and second and five. It felt like
last year he was in third and nine constantly. So yes, I think if you look at his splits last year, he was better in the last six games in the first six, he's getting better. It's time it'll work.
Erickson. Your thoughts on fields here and now we've had a lot of conversations on the fantasy side. Do you see these new pieces and this renewed optimism here for fields to take a step forward?
I do you know last year he's QB six and points per game eleven games played from week's five through seventeen, hems QB five and that was with no weapons to throw to you.
So it's much harder to.
Get completions when you're throwing to Chase Claypool who's just joined the team. But now you have DJ Moore, you have darn all Right added to the offensive line. I think that he's set for stardom in year three, specifically in fantasy football.
Yeah.
Well, certainly the rushing equity off the charts. We saw that last year if you added him in a single quarterback league, even he got to the playoffs. I mean that run was just spectacular. Let's go to another one too, last year, feel good story, Colin. I love feel good stories. The problem is sometimes they don't always last. Can Gino Smith replicate his twenty twenty two season, which was really good from a fancy perspective, and let's be honest, from
a Seattle Seahawks perspective, they were very pleased. So do you think that this is just the new version of Geno Smith or is this a one off?
You know, I'm split on it. The old line young O line, I thought deteriorated a little at the end of last year. The running back hurt. So they drafted Zach Charburne of UCLA, which I thought was a really smart move. So Walker's a really hard running kid from Michigan State, but he gets banged up. So they went and said, you know what, Gino needs a running back, a top running back. So when Walker left, the O
line deteriorates. It's more on GINO. So I think Seattle saw that and said, you know what, We're going to go get a running back one A so we're always going to have a top running back. They also went and drafted a slot receiver with Lockett and DK Metcalf and so I think they know what Gino is.
It's a little like.
Dak Prescott or Kirk Cousins. With a run game, with support, they can manage you to a lot of wins. They can't carry you with no run game. They can't carry you with a deteriorating O line. So my guess is he dips a little bit there, You regress to the mean a little bit. But I do think Seattle is smart enough. I think the O line will be better this year. Just it's year two in the league for those tackles, so I think he's going to look pretty similar to last year. Passer rating last year was near
the top of the league. I imagine that pulls back a little, but he won't embarrass Seattle. He falls into the camp of quarterbacks nine through fourteen in the league. You know they can win, they can't carry He can win. It's Kirk Cousins is very much in that. But they can't carry you. And I think that's what Gino is well.
And you got to have that offensive line ready to go in that division too, because you've got guys like Aaron Donald in the front and obviously what you saw last year from that San Francisco pass rush. We'll see how Nick Mosa wants society, he wants to come back and play. We'll see how that works out Ericson, I want to ask you this one here. This is a is a fun Jet question. You know, we keep talking about all we need for the New York Jets is what a quarterback, that's it, that's all we need. Well
they got one. They got a Hall of Fame quarterback. He's not quite the same guy he was a few years ago, but obviously a huge upgrader over what they had. Is Aaron Rodgers really the only thing that Jets need to make a run the Super Bowl? And I know that sounds lofty, Andrew, but in your opinion, do you think that you could take this offense it was right
twenty ninth the points last year. Put Aaron Rodgers there with the pieces they have with these now two running backs with Breeze Hall and Dalvin Cook, and actually run through the AFC.
I think in theory it makes sense. You know why the Jets made the move.
They wanted to get the veteran quarterback in the building to upgrade, pairing him with his elite defense. But the other issues at hand, the brutal schedule over the start for six weeks. No one has a tougher schedule than the New York Jets. Offensive line issues on the New York Jets are specifically at the tackle position, Like that's scary. You have a you know, Aaron Rodgers is no spring chicken like He's going to be entering his age forty season here. They got to make sure he is protected.
We saw him get banged up a little bit last year with a finger injury, thumb in like, if that influenced his play, which was not great last year, then there's potential issues here. So they need good Aaron Rodgers to make the Super Bowl run. And I'm not so sure of him at this age. He hasn't passed for three hundred yards since Week fourteen of the twenty twenty one season. So for me, I'm on the side of
really fading. The New York Jets hype an ultra competitive AFC East, and I bet the under on their protective winter all so I'm not in on the Jets, but I'm interested to see what Collins take is.
Yeah, Colin, I want to ask you about the Jets because with hard knocks on top of it, you're talking about, I mean, as much press you could possibly get in the situation, and it had enough press in the off season. Now you're eating hard knocks to the fire. Is it going to get to a point here where the Jets that people are going to start believing too much in the Jets and should people pump the brakes.
Well, yeah, I mean there's a lot of blinking red lights here. Corey Davis now retires. So you have Garrett Wilson, a twenty three year old, your number one receiver. Alan Lizard's a three. They want to make him a two. Andy Reid bailed on Micole Hardman. The tight end position isn't highly productive. It's like, and we don't like the tackles. Does that sound like an AFC championship team, Like there's just you know, everybody bangs on the Giants, but we
love their tackles. Waller and Saquon Barkley are veteran weapons, offensive coach, quarterback in their prime, good defensive front. The Jets are flash here. You can argue the Giants have really key pieces left tackle, you know, quarterback, prime offensive coach. You know, giants planning the same MetLife stadium are getting
dragged by everybody. And I'm like, I'm not so sure that the offensive coach with a quarterback in his prime who had a higher passer rating than Aaron Rodgers last year may not be the play in New York and not the Jets.
Yeah, the defense certainly on the Jets size working in their favors is whether or not the offense can meet the expectations. And just like the Lions, now they've got expectations. Let's get to another burning question here for the NFL season. This is a fun one here, Colin, is Jordan Love the next great Packer quarterback? And this historic run that they've had of going from far to the aforementioned Aaron Rodgers and now Jordan Loves starting the show some flashes here.
It's only preseason, but I'm sure people all over Chicago and people all over Minnesota are starting to say, oh no, not again. Do you think we're getting to that point with Jordan Love where people are buying in on the hype?
Well, Farvan Rodgers are arguably top twelve quarterbacks. Ever, I feel pretty confident Jordan Love will not enter that space. Agreed. The question is there's a lot of boxes he checks. You know, he's big enough, he's mobile, his arm's fine. I think we have to be honest that, outside of an occasional Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Lucker, John Elway, where you land is about eighty percent of your success as a quarterback. Mahomes landing in Houston is not going to
be hoisting trophies. He gets Andy Reid, the Hunt family, Brett Veach, it' to whole different reality. Matt Stafford Detroit, Matt Stafford, Jean McVay trophy, struggling for the playoffs. So my takeaway is the Packers o line, excellent run game, excellent offensive coach, Wonky division. He's probably going to be successful. But what is success? What if he's Kirk Cousins with better mobility. I think Green Bay would sign up for
that today, And that's what I think. You're going to have kind of a Dack Cousins with an athletic kid who can move. They can move the pocket. By the way, Matt Lafleur likes to move the pocket, couldn't much with Aaron as he declined in mobility. So I think they're
going to move the pocket a lot. The offense is going to look different, it's going to look more youthful, and I think they'll be successful as long as we keep expectations more toward Kirk Cousins and less toward Farvan Aaron Rodgers Andrew.
When we're talking about the athleticism of Jordan love Too and this ability maybe to get out and do some other things Aaron Rodgers wasn't capable of doing. What does that mean from a fancy perspective, because I know we have expectations they're going to rely heavily on that run game that Colin was talking about with AJ Dillon and of course Aaron Jones. But Christian Watson's a piece that is coming relatively cheap still in drafts, and that guy
is a huge playmaker. I know there's still some questions about the consistency, but we saw the playmaking ability, we saw the speed. We saw you could change a game. Is he somebody fantasy you're investing in twenty three?
Yeah? I love Christian Watson and the fact that Christian Watson can also He's a dual threat in terms of he can win after the catch, so he can take a screen or a slant to the house, and he can also win downfield, which takes advantage of Jordan Love's big arm. So Jordan Love's moving around the pocket making off script plays. I think Christian Watson is going to be that guy that delivers splash plays down right.
Now, here's a fun one, Andrew, I'm going to give you a shot at this one. First because we had this conversation on betting pros. I've had it with a bunch of people. I've already made an investment, and it seems to be the one where everybody's got a different answer. Who's going to win the NFC South? Andrew, go ahead, I'm going with the Atlanta Falcons.
You know, Arthur Smith has hand picked top ten overall offensive players are running back, wide, receiver, tight end of our last three seasons, got pits. London Bijon defense has added the key players through free agency and the NFL Draft with their siteset on winning now, Like people are joining this defense because they're not rebuild. Like Kalays Campbell bringing him in, he wanted to come to the Falcons
because I think this team can win. And when you look at the division they play in, it's the worst division in all football. So I think that the Falcons can run the table here. I'm not afraid of Derek Carr. Like, if it's Derek Carr and the Saints that is the biggest thing standing between the Falcons and NFC South title, I'll take that all day. So for me all to see, the question mark comes around Desmond Ridder entering year two.
But I think in a similar way to a Jordan Love where he's all he needs to do is facilitate an offense with all these skill players around him, similar to a Ryan Tannehill that Arthur Smith had so much success with in Tennessee. So Ridder wasn't a perfect prospect coming out of Cincinnati, but the one thing that he did do was win games. Third most wins by quarterback in college football history including NFL and college Ridder is twenty eight And oh at home the Atlanta Falcons open
the season at home Panthers and Packers. They're starting to and oh, so I'm back in the Falcons.
What a fun meetingless trend that you threw out there, as if that somehow means anything for anything. Look, I'm already investing in the Falcons, but it's mostly a Bjon Robinson reason. Like that's the whole point that I keep making, Like this, as a head coach knows how to run the FOOTBA wants to run a fooball needs to run the football in an offensive line. They got Tyler alger over a thousand yards last year. Yeah, Colin, there's some
questions here about this division. So when you look at it from your perspective, who do you think is really the front runner in the NFC South, because once again last year it was disappointing.
Yeah, I mean, Derek Carr is the best proven quarterback. The Saints, I think have the best roster. That's probably where i'd lean their schedules a week A lot of betters like Atlanta Arthur Smith, good Old, underrated o line, a lot of first round tight end running back players. So I think in a league that has pivoted in the last eight to nine years to offense, they've got really high end offensive players with a very nice offensive line.
I don't know anything about Desmond Ritter. I watched them in college too, So I mean I would probably go Car in the Saints roster. But there is no proof that the head coach of the Saints is more than a defensive coordinator bombed with the Raiders, and I mean Sean Payton to him was an ugly first year and Sean Payton won with Bridgewater, Jamis Winston, Drew Brees, Taysom Hill. So it's like I'm putting stock that the Saints coach finds his he finds himself, he pivots, he somehow finds
this magic, but there's no proof it's true. Atlanta is so hot with all the betters. Sometimes you have to acknowledge I didn't see it, so I still have a week or two to make my picks Atlanta. I really thought Carolina would be interesting, but they have been so overwhelmed up front offensively in two games. I mean it's not even It's like, oh my god, this is potentially Bryce Young small a disaster. So I think Atlanta is with the smart money. That's where the smart money's going.
But I'm not smart money. I'd go Saints.
Well, now I feel even smarter money because now you're talking about everybody else in it, and I'm mean it, and Andrews, that's good. We feel good. Let's leave on that high note. And I'm glad to brought up the offensive line. Is he there, Carolina, because that's another thing too that really starts to concern me. That size of Bryce Young concerned me anyway. And if you can't not protect this that you have to protect him more than
you would your normal quarterback. If you were going to keep this kid upright and playing seventeen games in the NFL.
All right, you know him you have to. It's essential. Kevin Clark, senior football writer, analyst at The Ringer, host of the Slow news Day podcast, a friend of the Herd. So I'm gonna throw something at you. Years ago, I'm not sure who said this. It could have been Jerry Seinfeld, he talked about He called it the comedy jet stream Seattle, Minneapolis, Boston, like New York, this Northeast sort of maybe a little higher brow, sort of a lot of times you know
this educated understanding. We get the joke. And I think it was Seinfeld or somebody said people are funnier in places where the weather's lousey because life's too easy. It's life's too easy in Miami, Tampa and Phoenix, right, it's always sunny. And so I've always had a little bit of a theory that in the North Northern football team Chicago, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, even the Giants teams, the Parcels teams, you know that very successful Super Bowl, they were tough. Phil McConkey,
Mark Bavaro and Chicago. I always think about this. It's almost hard to explain how Chicago can never have had a great quarterback. It doesn't mean it's ridiculous and you think to yourself why. And my theory is that some of these kind of cold weather towns they have romanticized defense, yes, toughness, and it's not that. And I think Chicago's had multiple options in their franchise history to draft a quarterback and they went for the rush end or the Mike linebacker,
and that it's a somewhat but explainable why Chicago. I can't even name their best receiver ever al Sean Jeffrey like it's it's you know. So my takeaway is when I look at Chicago this year, we may finally have a dynamic quarterback for the Bears. I'm hoping so. But that's my theory on the Bears' inability to land one great quarterback. Ever, is it horseshit? Do you buy it?
I'd buy it? First of all, do you know who the single season passing leader is the Chicago Bears all time currently twenty twenty three, Johnny Lujack, It's Eric Kramer nineteen ninety five three eight hundred and thirty eight yards. They have never had a four thousand yard passer in an era where you can accidentally do that going you can walk to the gas station in the NFL right now and accidentally pick up a four thousand yard season.
I mean that's like asking a town if you have indoor plumbing, have you had a four thousand yard quarterback? I mean, it's really easy to do in this and the fact that the Bears haven't done it is stunning. Dustin Fields, by the way, came out and said he will be the first four thousand yard quarterback over the season on podcast. Maybe that was tongue in cheek. I don't know, but I would hope. So there's a high floor here. I interviewed Justin Fields a couple of months ago.
I said, does it put more pressure on you the fact that there have been these big misses and they passed on Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, all these guys who could have been quote unquote franchise saviors. And he said, it's not my fault that this happened. And I thought that was exactly the way to do it. And I think he liked his expectations. He said to me that, however high the fans expectations are his or higher, which
I think is the exact way to do it. And there's a floor here that I think that people say, oh, well, Luke gets you in the offensive staff, they've got a lot, a lot of work to do, and I say, no, it's just the opposite. There was a stat last year Colin that blew my mind, which is his consecutive games with fifty yards and a touchdown of rushing was the most since Gail Sayers. Okay, Gail Sayers.
There's a name that.
Actually was good in their past. And when you have that kind of production on the rushing side, it doesn't take much to open up those passing ways. I think we're going to see a massive step forward. I think that we're going to see an improved team. And I was joking with you a couple of weeks ago where some people saying, oh, in the first preseason game, he just gave the bald to Herbert and to DJ more than they did the work. Yeah. Good, that's the point.
That's the point of a Ryan pol has been able to do. The rosters much improved. They had a bunch of money to spend, they spent it. So I'm expecting a lot. I totally agree with your theory that I remember being at a being in a Miami Notre Dame game at Soldier Field, which I don't really want to bring up because Miami lost by five touchdowns. But they as they want to do in the Al Golden Era.
But I remember just some random Bears fan at the concession stand just arguing about whether or not the eighty five Bears defense was the best of all time. That's their identity. That's what Bears fans want to do. They never want to talk about the quarterback. They always want to talk. As you said, they want Khalil Mack in the first round. They want that kind of guy, the big Beefer. They want Mike Didka calling into local radio
shows and saying, here's what we're going to do. When you have those sort of voices, they never really go away. You see that all the time. In the opposite. I grew up in Florida. When the Dolphins have a good quarterback, they immediately get Compton Marino. That's, in a weird way, held them back. So I just think a team can get buried under its own history, and I think that's when you get in trouble sometimes.
Yeah, And I think, you know, when I look at this league, it's really fundamentally to me, there's been a cultural shift, and I've seen it in basketball where the power forward went from essential to a complete liability on the floor, like Tristan Thompson was valuable and you can't play him in a three year period. In baseball, it used to be Dave Kingman. You don't remember Dave probably he was like a six six home run hitter who struck out a bunch. He would be Cody Bellinger today.
He was viewed as a complete liability. Now it's the ground ball. And in the NFL, if you look at the top spending teams on defense, it's Buffalo, it's Pittsburgh, it's the Chargers, it's these defensive coaches. And I've said this before is you'd have to really convince me to hire a defensive coach in the NFL. So you recently did an article coming out on the Bengals, and it's interesting. When everybody was bailing initially on Zach Taylor, my takeaway was, no,
it's the right side of the ball. You just can't win in this league with an old Andy Dalton, whoever it is, And the minute he gets Burrow, he completely embraces him. Flores struggled with Tua, Simmer with Kirk Cousins, Pete a little with Russell Belichick with Mac. I find when the coach is offensive, there is a happier, more joyful experience. Offense is celebrated, mistakes are tolerated. Like I feel, the locker room feels different. What was your vibe from Cincinnati?
It was unbelievable because it's not just Taylor, it's Burrow, it's Brian Callahan, their coordinator, and there's no football ego there and Colin We've talked about this before, but if you're going to have a culture changer like Joe Burrow, the number one step is to let him change the culture. And there are coaches who would say, no, no, no, this is my show. Sectator didn't do that. He adapted the
offense in myriad ways. I mean, at one point twenty nineteen, some of the coaches are saying they're trying to run the McVeigh outside z own stuff. They were terrible at it, they gave up on it. Joe Burrow comes in and says, you know what, we're going to do this, this, this, I want to get five guys into routes. They said, great, And what the piece that I did that I recorded on I spent a long time talking to the coaches and Tyler Boyd and tig into some of these guys
down in Cincinnati. Basically the angle was they've mastered the easy play because last year, NFL defense is sold out to take away the deep ball, and basically his deep ball numbers were halved last year, went from thirteen touchdowns to seven.
Guess what.
He was a great quarterback anyway, because there's no football ego on that staff or even from Joe Burrow, and I think that what's interesting is that modern defense dares you to be uncool. They say, you know what, go ahead and do whatever you want to do. But it's going to be a checkdown to p Ryan, it's going to be a checkdown to Joe Mixon, it's going to be a checkdown to Hayden Hurst, and it's not going
to be a fifty yard bomb to Jamar Chase. And Joe Burrow said, deal, great, we're going to do it. And that's why they were able to win last year, especially after Week five. I basically had halftime of a Week five game against Baltimore and they started to make those changes. But that's not normal. Mahomes said. It took him a couple of months to figure out to just
have that patience, have that foresight. And what Taylor told me was basically, He'll check Burrow would check down and say, you know what, I know, Jamar might be open fifty yards down the field, doesn't matter because ten yards wide open is great. He gasped. Buffalo like that with Hayden Hurst and some of the backs out of the backfield, they doubled their targets to running backs last year. And I think what we're seeing is I thought Brian Callahan,
the OC, said something really interesting. He said, it's a type of football maturity unfolding in front of our eyes. It's just him saying this, this is what I have in front of you this year. I'm not going to force it. Even though I have the three, I have the best receiving core in football, doesn't matter. I'm going to let those guys run down field open up the
rest of the defense. For me, I think it's really astounding because Colin, as you know, like when a young quarterback, young quarterbacks almost like a boxer, right, their career changes so much from year to year. Style. You know, one fight can change your entire trajectory all of this stuff, and so to go through a year where you're not doing the things that you're used to and you're not going and the chemistry between Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow is as good as any two young players have ever
seen in my entire life. And the stories that that Chase told me last year about how Burrow will underthrow a deep ball because he knows he can throw in a double coverage and all of this stuff, it's crazy and they said, you know what, I'm just not going to do that this year. That to me is the sign of a guy who's going to adapt every single year of his career. And by the way, now that he's successful for it, the deep ball opens back up and that's the most amazing thing that they can do
it again. So the fact that Burrow's on the cutting edge of this chess match shows me that not only is Zach Taylor are a good coach now as Brian Brian Callahan good oh SI, but the Joe Burrows capable of anything on football fields.
So Steven A. Smith reported that Stefan Diggs wants out and I've said there are two kind of quote what you call diva receivers and you don't see it as much today because I think there's so much money in it. Players want to win games. They don't feel like they constantly have to fight for the ball. The game's more wide open. They get the ball. But there's like the des Bryant, who was difficult from day one for Dak
Prescott was just loud. Now he was Jason Garrett once told me he fought like hell to keep him because he gave you eight to ten touchdowns. And then there's the Randy Moss Steffon Diggs, which is they're highly productive for three years and then it's their personality they want more. Diggs has been targeted a lot, highly productive, it's just his personality. And I've said I would go make the move for Randy Moss in his peak, and I'd make
it for Stefan Diggs. I don't feel they're problematic. You get three years of productivity and then their personality comes out. I can live with that. In this league, three years is forever. Legacy's are formed and so let's just play the game. Stephen A. Smith says he's unhappy wants out.
If that's true, is there a team or two that you just think of off the top of your head, where you're like, gosh, they just I mean, I obviously New England's clear, but I think they're trying to get value on every offensive player and there's not a lot of those with cap space, so you'd have to make it work via some trade. Is there any place Diggs
would work to you? Wow, it's a great question because unfortunately, if you take him away from his current team, one of the best places it loves to go all in right now is the Buffalo Bills. And then that's a strange thing, right.
It's like if you were just saying taking the team out of it, you know what the Bill is signed ball, nobody which contract they've got, you know, certain cap situations where they need to win right now. They're the kind of team that does it. So he's unhappy there. He's going to be unhappy in a lot of the places. A couple other teams like they love making aggressive moves. Well,
they're full and wide receiver. They can't add another piece, and so you get to kind of the dregs a little bit, and he's going to go to a place. Does a team with a bad quarterback when a trade for Stefan Diggs. I don't think they do, so it ends up being, you know, a couple of different places. But I just don't I don't see a place where he'd be happy. You know, does he want to go and play you know, would he have taken the Chicago Bears slot, you know, to be their star guy and
try to resurrect that I don't know. I mean, and if it's if it's a quarterback you can't get in the ball, does that make the expiration date on his happiness that much shorter? And maybe it's a place like Carolina if he wants to reboot and play with the quarterback. I don't know. But when you're going out of a winning situation, there aren't a lot of options for you, and the NFL is going to set your market pretty quickly.
And I think that, you know, Buffalo in general has a lot of blow up potential, but they could also win the Super Bowl, and I think I think there are real questions. I was just listening to some of their guys at the Athletic talk about how there's still questions on the offensive line. Kyer Elam, who's the first round pick from a year ago, is just not taking
the job. The way the coaches want. There's some real holes in that roster, but then there's top, top, top end talent, and that's why he need Stefon Diggs there. If I'm Brandon Bean, I'm doing nothing to move Stefan Diggs. I'm not going to ask for a trade. I'm going to try to do a last dance situation because you need that top end, top end talent because you've missed on a handful of big roster decisions in the last couple of years, and you went all in maybe on
guys like Bond Miller we shouldn't have. And so if I'm the Bills, I'm standing pat. I'm doing everything I can. I'm putting it on Josh Allen to make it work. Everybody needs to be happy because Stefan Diggs is a type of talent you have to have if they're going to win.
The team. I want to watch the most. And because the NBA is very much about the shield and corporate it's not a drama league, right Like in the NBA, A lot of times you don't care about the team, but the story's good, you know, Like KD leaves Westbrook, Westbrook wins the MVP, good story. You know, can the Philadelphia seventy six ers finally win and get to a second playoff series? The story's better than the team. Right
in the NFL, I just kind of like winners. I do think the Broncos with Peyton and Russell Wilson, I think it's the best story because if it doesn't work, they're kind of ft. I mean because Russell, I mean, Josh Allen's cap hit next year and you can manipulate it. By the time it arrives, it's gonna be like eighteen percent of the cap for the Bills. Like they have to win now. They can't screw around with Stefan Diggs.
Like the reason the Dolphins are interested in Jonathan Taylor is like two is only four and a half percent of the cap. Dack's twelve, right, Josh Allen's gonna be eighteen and a half. They have to win this year. So I think that's really interesting the drama around Buffalo. But I also think it's there's a weird thing in sports. If you ask how many players believe in God, it
would be ninety percent. But Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, and Russell Wilson wear it on their sleeve, and a lot of people view like Russell as inauthentic, and I'm like, you know, he's very religious, great conviction. I always thought that's just who he is. Now people say Kirk Cousins is soft and corny, and I'm like, he's a family man, he's religious, It's who he is. I've had two different raiders say, you know, Derek Carr wore some guys out, and I'm like, who he is. You know, he's a
man of faith. And I asked Kevin Clark this yesterday. Do you view russ as inauthentic or just religious?
I view him as inauthentic, but I've talked to enough people that is he's kind of robotic. So this version that everyone makes fun of is actually who he was. Because you know, I would say the thing that I value the most in any human being is just be yourself, right. It's why I think you know, people in the medium were in having the most success or the most honest and just act like you, don't pretend to be something they're not, can just be very authentic to themselves whether
you agree with them or not. And I think Russell comes off too often, or at least has I haven't been locked into all his press conferences. Sean Payton got there, but it's just kind of a phony. And you know, I heard a story once that he had a golf tournament and invited everyone to the golf tournament. Right, everyone at the golf tournament was an invitation from him. So he knows a lot of performer players, coaches, whoever, and
he had security when he showed up. So there's an element like one of the things that Patrick Mahomes, you know, Farv had this forever. I think Peyton and Tom were the biggest stars that kind of were able to play both sides of the fence perfectly on this as they always felt one of the guys right. Tom always felt like even though ironically he was a health nut, could drink beers right, slam cheeseburgers with his offensive lineman. Same with Peyton. You know, you go back throughout the history
of the quarterback position. Joe Montana was friends with all his teammates. Now, I also think that players, if you are true to yourself, like Derek Carr is married, he's got four kids. Kirk Cousins is very very religious, so it is Derek if they think that you're being authentic about it. I don't think it bothers guys deep down, especially if you're playing well. I think once you get
the poor play and you have the weirdness. Because I remember when I was scouting, I ran into a dude from Denver and they had just signed Peyton Manning, or maybe it was during the season, so Peyton had been there for a while and he was like, Peyton's a lot man. We had to dedicate a couple of scouts for him. He got his own office. So all this stuff last year with Russell Wilson they had done before. Well what happened Peyton got there, superstar MVP. They start kicking.
No one cares. Peyton was not easy to work with, right, but when you're winning, when you're playing at a high level, and everyone knew they needed Peyton more than probably he needed them. He could have gone a bunch of places. I think last year Russell everyone opened their arms immediately. And then he started playing poorly, and then the story started leaking about you know, him making the Seattle It just imploded, and I've seen Nathaniel Hackett over his head.
But and I heard you talking about this, and I agree He's definitely slimmer. He moved better the other night against the forty nine ers. But the pressure, I think the pressure on him and the pressure on Rogers every game is gonna be just treated probably five x most of these other games. Just part of it has to do with who they are, how famous they are, how much money they make the trades, how much power they have over coaches and owners. It is just you don't
see it very often these Hall of Fame quarterbacks. I mean, Rogers is older, but Russell in his prime. I mean, that's what makes the Pete Carroll angle. So are they just going to be really good? Is Pete just gonna win this trade seamlessly? I know that in Jigbud got hurt today, but obviously if they're healthy, Seattle's gonna be good again. We don't know. I mean, Denver easily could be seven and ten. Pete goes ten and seven. He's in the playoffs, Like, I'm sorry he wins the trade.
Well, I think here's here's my take is that if you look at Aaron Rodgers and the Jets and Russell Wilson with Denver's there's a lot of similarities. They're both in the AFC. They're both in good divisions, they're both veterans, they both have you know, declining athleticism, but both still good athletes, and they're both going to get a lot of Hall of Fame votes. Both have a new coach, both have I would say intense coaches. Peyton and Salah
are intense coaches, and there's pressure on both. This is where Russell's optimism could be very beneficial. I think at his core, Aaron's more agnostic. Aaron's more cynical, a bit more snarky. I think that's who he is at his core, a little bit more of a hipster. That's who he is, and that's okay. I can be a little bit too snarky, and so I think when Fit hits the shan, aarons who he is is a little cynical and a little snarky. I think when Fit hits the shan, for Russell, he
tends to be optimistic and we'll get through this. And I do think that placebo effect, the power of the mind, is valuable. And I do think they're gonna have both of these quarterbacks this year. John are gonna have turbulence and what I know, you know, Russell will be highly optimistic. If they're five and five, we're gonna get through this. There's a brighter day, that's the messaging. If the Jets are five and five, there's a chance Aaron bails on his right tackle who can't protect him.
Colin. That could happen like week one. The difference, too, is in Denver, the head coach is going nowhere right. I mean he's on scholarship for a while. He's the boss, Aaron. Let's just say it's always easy in football, probably more
than any other sport. Things are so optimistic in general in the offseason and then in training camp, and then all of a sudden, it's middle of September, y're zero to two when things are getting tight, and listen, I was a big believer in the Jets, and then I'm not trying to do all my scouting on hard knocks. But their offensive line is a desire right now? Can they make up for with an elite defense? Like if they're the number one defense and Rogers just understands how
to kind of manipulate it all. But that's probably still best case nine or ten, not thirteen or fourteen. You cannot if your offensive line is bottom ten in the league. I don't care. If you've got Montana Rogers manning in there, probably that's a problem, right, And they got to figure that out. And I'm sure they are going to be claiming guys off the waiver. They're willing to make trades. But that that is to me, the current biggest problem
for all a team that has the upside. If they had a good offensive line, I think everyone would pick them to be like an AFC contentment, Yeah, a real yeah, right, But if Rogers, who I was reading Peter King earlier, he's the oldest quarterback in the NFL by a pretty wide margin, right, He's about to turn forty. All the other guys, even the older guys Cousins and Daniel they're thirty five. It's Russell thirty three to thirty four. That's
a pretty big gap. When we had a long stretch, you know, with the Eli, the Carson Palmers, the Peyton Manage the Obviously Tom's a little bit of an outlier, but guy Roethlisberger got Drew Brees thirty nine, and there are a ton of them now, he clearly is the oldest, and let's face it, and I don't blame him, and he saw this definitely last year with Tom and I think he kind of saw it for two years without.
You don't want to get a hit anymore. You check your bank account, you got you know, nine figures, you're already a Hall of Famer. You want to win. But there is a level of I'm not going to get I'm not going to play like Archie Manning here and just get driven into the ground. Every play right, and you already kind of you know, if you watch Hard Knocks episode two, Rogers's and I don't blame him, I mean the offensive line, this is the pros. The expectations
are high. We've invested a lot, we've we've drafted guys, but if they're not good enough. The thing in the NFL, this is not the NBA where you kind of suck. You will just bench a guy, you will remove a guy, You'll move other guys through. But that is that's probably the hardest position group to just running backs. I can rotate wide receivers, I can rotate DB's offensive line. If you've got a constant rotation, you probably got a you know, tire fire in well and the other thing.
And I'm not a psychologist. But there is a reality is that if you're married, you have kids, your life's a series of sacrifices. I know, I live in that tunnel, you know, Aaron's and Kevin Durant, never married, no kids. He kind of gets his way a lot, right, so you know when when again, when stuff unravels for me, I got kids, I got a wife. I make sacrifices daily. It's just part of my existence. But you know, Eran's
in that Durant tunnel where it's rich. He's the son in his galaxy, kind of gets his way, wants to take a nap, wants to go on a hunting trip, fishing trip. I had this thing years ago. I told a scout, I like my quarterbacks married, and he joked about it. He said, there's value in this is because when you're married, you get very responsible, very quickly. You have to learn to compartmentalize your life. School with the kids, recital practice, film, he goes. Single guys don't have to
compartmentalize stuff. It all MUSHes together. What do I feel like doing whatever I want to do? And I said, I think quarterback being married. You know, most of the great ones, even ones that drove me nuts, Big Ben. Sometimes. He was married, he had kids, He had sort of a hierarchy of things, you know, a pattern of life. And I guess my point is, if shit goes sideways for Aaron, it didn't a lot in Green Bay. Most
of it was Aaron inflicted and Aaron created. I mean, no chaos front office, good offensive lines, never whipped on drafts. Media was kind of in a sidecar. You know, they were your buddy. What I mean. The turbulence for Aaron in Green Bay was kind of Aaron created. He's never had it land in his lap, not of his own creation.
Yeah, I mean, I think there's definitely something to the way the scouting community, but just human beings, right, A lot of guys, even if you are career driven. I know, for me, up until about my mid thirties, I was always like, you know, no serious relationships. Last I'd say three or four years, I've been in two serious relationships, and I've gotten better at every aspect of my life. I've had to give up things that I used to
be able to do. But you become more balanced, you become more relying on other people, they become more relyant on you. You drop bad habits, and like you said, Tom Brady when he played the best football of his life when he got married Gazelle for the next whatever decade, right, Peyton was married the whole time. So I think part of this just gets back to the Jets are just a not the most consistent organization and they have and this gets back to the difference between Sean Payton and Russell.
Like this, if it doesn't go well, Robert Saul is going to get fired, right, Joe Douglas is in major trouble. That's just the way the sport works, right. If Aaron were to want them gone, they would go. This is where the other problem is, Like he's got way more juice than anyone in the organization now, and he's shown before he can be a little selfish, and he's doing all the right things. I am throw what we've seen
out of Rogers. Clearly he's going above and beyond eating lunch with all these different guys every single day, coaching the defensive acts up like I think he understands it. But like you said earlier, it's easy to do when everything's going well off season, start one to three and everyone talking shit about you everywhere. You look, because all of a sudden you start slowing the AFC. There is no making up for it, right none. The volume