The volume this week on Prime Cutch Chad Millman, Sharp or Square, John Middlekoff on Brock Pretty and the Red Hot Niners, and my top takes of the week. All Right, so two things. One, Kansas City needs to go get a wide receiver at the trade deadline, Jerry Judy Cortland Sutton. I think Denver at this point would trade in division. I think Denver's got to figure out Denver. I think they know they're not in the same stratosphere as Denver knows they're not in Kansas City's galaxy. So they used
to be sort of an unwritten rule. You just didn't trade in division, try not to trade in conference. If you're Sean Payton, you're staring at Russell Wilson's contract. You got to solve your stuff. You can't worry about that. You can't worry anybody you trade them is not going to be around in two or three years. Probably anyway, Kansas City moves off star receivers, they move off all receivers, including Tyreek Hill and others, Juju Smith, Schuster one and done.
So Kansas City is a really good football team, but I think the entire league looks at San Francisco and looks at the way they thrash Pittsburgh's roster and the Cowboys, You're going to really struggle to move the football if you're the Chiefs against that San Francisco defense, if you eventually face them, or Philadelphia's defense for that matter. So Chiefs go get a wide receiver to deadline. We've been
talking about that for a couple of weeks. When you have Andy Reid and Mahomes and you're scoring nineteen and dominating time and possession, you need another pop on the perimeter. You know, as far as Denver, there's just no way Russell Wilson's going to last half of this contract. New owner Sean Payton. You can say what you want about Sean Payton, but he, next to Andy Reid, is the most innovative offensive guy in the last fifteen years in
the NFL. I know half a dozen players that have played for him, loved him, thought he was just a brilliant coach. And there's a reason, you know, many people wanted to interview him. He's the smartest football coach I've ever interviewed on a consistent basis in terms of knowledge of offense. It's I mean just layered beyond layered. He won with Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Brees, he won with a Taysom Hill, a winning record, never been shut out. I mean,
he knows what he's doing. I know people didn't like the call he made tonight at the end of the first half. It doesn't matter. There's no salary cap for coaches. He's going nowhere. The GM might get replaced now. The good news for Denver, even with Russell Wilson's contract, you can turn things around really quickly in this league. This is not Major League Baseball, where you need like four
drafts and certain teams have spending limitations. Right, Like a third of Major League Baseball, maybe half, just can't compete with the Houstons and the Dodgers and the Mets financially. It's not the NBA where you really have to have three high end players to compete for a championship. City has one elite defensive player. Bolton's a very good linebacker, but Chris Jones is your Pro bowler. The bottom line,
young and cheap on defense works. You know you're gonna spend your money on quarterback, left tackle, star receiver or tight end. That's where the smart teams in this league like Kansas City spend their money on offense. The teams like Pittsburgh that are spending their money on defense, when's their last big playoff win in the last decade? Right, So, you know, you get rid of some players, you get yourself ten or eleven draft picks, you hit on seven
of them. I mean, the Rams had fourteen guys make the team this year out of the draft. I think it was fourteen. I could be wrong on that number. And they've been much better defensively than anybody thought, so you can turn it around. I mean, the Seahawks had back to back drafts where they nailed their first four or five picks. That's ten players. And that's what Denver
has to do. They've got to nail five or six players per draft over the next two years and have a lot of, you know, for lack of a better term, cheap labor. I mean, they got to have inexpensive players, a lot of third, fourth, fifth, sixth round guys. And when you're not a great defensive team like the Rams coming into this season, you can do that. Fifth round guys have an impact. So but this just isn't gonna work.
I mean, ninety five yards passing, seventeen yards passing I think, or thirty two yards passing in the first half for Russell Wilson. It's just not gonna work. And you know, people say, well, it's not Russell's fault. Listen, when that game was thirteen nothing, it felt over. It would not have felt over with Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence. So Russell Wilson is the problem.
If you trail thirteen to nothing against the good defense and the game feels over at any point other than the last five minutes, the quarterbacks the issue. It doesn't mean he's the worst player on the team. It doesn't mean there are other issues, but his salary, combined with his lack of jewe, he's the issue. Right. It's really unprecedented where you see a star quarterback with no major injury drop off a cliff. It's unprecedented in the history
of the NFL. I've never seen anything like it. I mean, I saw Peyton Manning at the end five years older than russ is now and four next surgeries go from really good to you know, clearly not the same quarterback. Russ has never had a major injury. He's a workaholic. It's just, you know, Pete Carroll saw a lot of things. He saw him age quickly, and now it's Sean Payton's problem. So it's just not going to last very long. This
owner and this coach. I think that they're going to try to accumulate a lot of picks and somewhere in this draft, a very strong quarterback draft, try to get themselves the next guy. I'm dead serious. I just don't think they're going to be patient, especially in the Afcats is what fired coaches say. You know, that's what they preach. You got to get stuff solved. Watching Philadelphia, I still don't think Philadelphia is playing as well as they're capable
of playing. But if you watched every snap of that Rams game, or most of them, and I did, that was one of the more physically dominating performances I've ever seen. They had over four hundred and fifty yards. They had a thirty eight to twenty two minute time of possession edge,
twenty eight first downs to seventeen. They were impeccable on third down, and the score is not even remotely indicative of what the game was like Philadelphia just smushed and pounded and buried and punished the Rams for three and a half hours. You know, Cooper cup got some nice catches early. But mcveigh's a great coach. You have some really nice players for the Rams. They're young. But this is really what separates to me the Philadelphia from everybody
except the forty nine ers in football. A Buffalo can beat you, soak in Kansas City, so can Cincinnati. There's a lot of teams that can beat you. The two teams last year San Francisco teams the following week after playing the Niners. I think every team the following week lost. They don't beat you, they punish you, they hurt you. I feel the same way with Philadelphia, and I don't
even think they're clicking. But between AJ Brown and Jalen Hurts and the dominating offensive line, they just get yards when they need it. They have no personnel shortcomings. They can do virtually anything they want to do. That doesn't mean they always do it well. You know, a well coached team will do well what their personnel allows them to do well. You know they're shortcomings. I'll get to the Jets in the second. They do that they do
well what they can do with their personnel. But Philadelphia there's everything. They have a quarterback that can throw and can move. They can play power football and go over the top. They get a great pass rush. On the other end. You know their secondary may not be as good as it was in previous years. But you know, the NFC, the team that you're concerned about San Francisco's
got Brock Purty, or Dallas has Dak. You don't feel like you know your B B plus quarterbacks are going to pick you apart because the pass rush you create. So Philadelphia is such an impressive organization and they do what very few teams do in the NFL. They pivot a lot, and they remain successful. Bill Belichick can't pivot off Brady. Patriots are a clown show. They can't pivot once. Pete Carroll's pivoted four times in Seattle. Philadelphia pivoted off
Carson Wentz. They pivoted off Nick Foles. They just keep changing. Pivoted off Chip Kelly. This team is stacked. Now, you know the offensive line, they got some older players, Kelsey the center, but you know they've drafted well up front as well. So I just don't think Philadelphia has any shortcomings. I think they can match up with anybody in the league and can go toe to toe with anybody. I mean,
think about this, Have they played a great game yet? Nope, They're five and zero Phillies National League Championship Series again. So a lot of people in baseball are discouraged or disappointed that the Rays and the Orioles and the Dodgers and the Braves, who had dominating regular seasons all got flushed out of the playoffs rather quickly. But I talked about this on FS one today. I don't think it's a terrible thing. I think the Phillies with Bryce Harper
are a great watch. And I mean it's you know, the Rays, the Orioles don't have national followings, So I don't think it's bad for the networks, you know, at all. I think the reality is baseball is an everyday sport, and when you give favorites they don't have to play in that wildcard round, they get five six days off. I think that's problematic for those teams. I don't think it's problematic for baseball because again I think the Phillies to me, are as much fun or a better watch
due to Bryce Harper than the Braves. But the bigger issue is the Yankees weren't very good this year. In the Red Sox weren't very good this year, and the Mets were a complete disappointment. And so if the Yankees were a viable franchise, Houston's got a following, Phillies have a following, you'd be fine. But you know, baseball did a lot of things right in the last couple of years. They speed the game up attendant and TV ratings are up about ten percent. They got rid of the defensive shift.
I thought that was very smart. They'll never get rid of Bay games and get down to like one hundred and twenty games a year, which I think they should. I think they should start a month later, finish six weeks earlier, and wrap it up by October first or September fifteenth. By the time the NFL's cooking getting into it second week, you're done. NFL is so popular now that baseball stands very little chance of pulling away audience.
You know, if you get into late October you have to have the Yankees or like the Cubs going for a World Series. You're just not going to be able to do it unless you have the biggest brands, And there's some crappy TV football games on which you know it's Thursday night on Amazon. Those games are usually pretty dull. But I don't think it's necessarily a problem that wildcard teams win. I think it's the reality of baseball that it's an everyday sport. The Dodgers offense dried up, the
Braves offense dried up. Okay, But if you're really honest about it is that postseason baseball is a different experience entirely in a different sport than regular season baseball. So you know, regular season baseball is a marathon, it's a triathlon, and the postseason is about getting a hit, getting a stop, getting an out. You'll bring a star pitcher out of the bullpen to get an out and get a win.
If you want to seal a series, or you have a weaker pitcher going the next night against their superior pitcher. You need outs. You need to create momentum. Now, you need urgency. That's not the regular season. So you know, I just think analytics are true, and they work in both the NBA and baseball, and they're and they're smart, But postseason Baseball is completely different, and the NBA playoffs are different. Sometimes you just need a bucket, you need
a mid range jumper. So you know, I use the analogy today that when you take your kids in a five or six hour drive, same kids, same car, it's different than taking a nine minute drive to school. Right, It's a different sensibility and a different strategy with young kids in a car for six hours, and so you know, same kids, same car. You know, same teams, same players, same manager, different strategy in the postseason. So the time
off I think can be problematic for favored teams. And you know, the doctors didn't you know they had a domestic issue with a picture of domestic violence, issue with a pitcher, Kershaw's age and injuries, so they didn't really have a true ace. And Freddy Frame and Mookie Betch just didn't hit, which is it's harder to hit in the postseason. It's superior pitching, more pressure. So golf and baseball are that way bigger the tournament, more pressure, those
putts get harder. So listen, I can't wait to watch the Phillies. I think they're a great team, and I think Bryce Harper is the biggest star remaining in the sport. So I do not think it's terrible news for Major League Baseball. John Middlecoff three and out in the volume. So obviously, when you have a quarterback, you think about what's their salary. I mean, if Russell Wilson was a seventh round pick, everything in Denver would feel completely different
than his five year contract kicking in next year. Right, So if you consider contract age, mobility, accuracy, talent, and I said today, Brock Purty or Dak Prescott, it's not even close. I would take Brock Purdy, It's not even close. Dak now is not mobile. He's had too many lower extremity injuries. Dak's a pocket thrower, but he was never a great pocket passer like Russell Wilson. Although Russell throws a pretty your ball, Russell needs mobility to be Russell Wilson.
A big part of Dak was that he could move. He no longer moves, So I get a below average pocket thrower who's super expensive. Brock Purty makes way too many good throws to be a system guy. Dude hitting things down the middle tonight. And it sounds crazy, but you have to consider what you pay players. Once you pay guys Burrow Mahomes, Herbert Allen Lamar, Well, those are special talents. Dak's got a special contract. He's an average
pocket guy. Look at that lineup for the Niners. If you, for instance, John if Brock made what Dak made, you couldn't have Fred Warner couldn't You couldn't have been able to get Christian McCaffrey. You probably would have to get rid of one of year d linemen. It's not the same team, right, It's a good team, it's not quite this team.
Well, when the forty nine Ers made the trade for Trey Lance, you know, the logic of trying to swing for the fences and get a star was in the right place. But a driving force was they wanted that rookie quarterback contract. And my big thing is the rookie quarterback contract isn't that relevant when the guy can't play. Part of what made Dak such a good draft choice back in the day was he he was a solid player, right,
solid Kirk Cousins back in the day. And then obviously we've seen in recent memory some of the star quarterbacks drafted. Brock Purty won.
He's really good.
I mean, you just watch if you just watch NFL football, like that guy's really good.
John Kyle Shanahan didn't make Blaine Gabbert or Trey Lance great players. Not all quarterbacks work with Kyle right, Like Brock, Brock's really good.
Well listen, and the other thing about Brock you just hit on. With Dak Prescott, there were a couple of plays a night. It's like, Dak, for god, did Drake Greenlaw and Fred Warner are the best linebacking duo in the league. Their play speed is elite for their position. And he rolled out a couple of times. It's like, Dak, what are you doing? You know, get rid of the ball. If you're not going to be the athlete that you once were after the ankle injury, you can't scramble away
from these guys, can't. And then Perdy the underrated part about his game, because I remember I listen, I'd be lying if I said I watched that much Iowa State football. But the one thing that was immediate when he started playing, and the biggest difference between him and Jimmy and they obviously won a ton of games with Jimmy ye was Jimmy's lack of mobility after the ACL injury and his
just ability to playmake outside of the pocket. When you watch Perdy scramble, you're confident that something good is gonna happen. How about the touch that he has on the move. When you're playing with this much talent, Everyone's like, well, he's playing with a lot of talent. Well, you ain't got to get him the ball. How many players have we've seen play with other good players? Larry Fitzgerald can tell you played with a million quarterbacks, couldn't get him
the rock over the years. This guy you just watch him. Obviously he's a little smaller, but listen, I mean his this fucking kid can play bottom line.
Yeah, I mean, and again it's Mark Brunel was a late pick, Brady, Kurt Warner, Romo. It's not shocking. We've seen guys undrafted and I think there's a ceiling, but it's not a Mac Jones ceiling. He moves really well and they don't ask him to throw a ton of deep balls. I mean, they just don't this, you know,
it just it's funny, like the Dak's rookie year. In the first couple of years, you know, he got an MVP voter to his first year in the league, and so much of that was you weren't paying Dak anything. So they had the old line, they had Zeke. It was an all star team, even their defense. I went and looked it up the other day. Was top five in the league. Dallas right now, because once you pay that quarterback, I mean, Kansas City's roster is not great. Cincinnati,
there's holes in that thing. Everybody's roster has a hole except San Francisco. I mean.
So, I think also when you take a quarterback high, you like a specific guy and you get aggressive, from Josh Allen to Mahomes to when the Texans drafted Deshaun Watson to Baker Mayfield, like you like that guy. To me, when you get a guy in the third, fourth and beyond, there's an element of luck right at quarterback because teams are passing on the guy. It's easy to look back. God, look how good perty is. But at the time, I mean, he was one spot away from being an undrafted free agent.
But you cannot value and I think it's pretty clear guys like him. You and I have talked about it. When you go to Alabama or Georgia, you have such an advantage on a weekly basis, right, you really do. Hell, we'll probably talk about Kleb a little bit later. I think he's benefiting a lot, or at least scouts are gonna benefit watching him play. It's not as easy this year, like he has to make shit happen. His team has
a huge advantage. Well, perty his entire career, we're going into games either as underdogs or having less talent than their opponents. So you have to learn learn how to play. So now you watch him, well, he clearly knows how to play, and now he has the talent around him, and it's bombs away. I mean they feel, I mean clearly like one of the better teams we've seen in terms of the way they start and just how the level in which they're playing in recent memory in the NFL.
Oh, I think honestly, again, if you had even a good quarterback Kirk Cousins, you could not have the same roster. You would not get both of those linebackers, you know you wouldn't. You would not have been able to acquire Christian McCaffrey. Well, if you take Christian McCaffrey and Fred Warner off this team, it's not the same team. That's the best linebacker in the game and the best running back right now, and what they can use.
You know.
It's the other thing is when I mean, we've all had a bunch of bosses in our life, but when you're in sports, basketball is and hockey or really so fast. But in football you huddle. Football plays are choreographed, so you can on that bench as a football player, right. Baseball is very individual. If a guy's hot on the mound, there's not a lot you can do. I get basketball's moving one thousand miles an hour, and football, you know
when the other coach is better than your coach. Like Dallas players are watching this Rubik's Cuba and offense, you know they're going, shit, we're getting worked tonight, right, like a player would know that. All right, Chad Millman had a great week. We had a great week five and zero off our four and one week hit nine of ten sharper square. Chad. Of course, the CEO of the Action Network. All of our odds are provided by DraftKings. So I tend to be like Warren Buffett of value Seeker, right,
I tend to take points. But I went back and look at why I was struggling in the first two weeks, and then I made a little switch. As the league's become more quarterback centric. I was taking off in the second best quarterback in game, though I was getting value, So I said, listen, it's becoming more quarterback centric, so I'm not going to do that. I'm going to seek value, but not be afraid to take some favorites. So I'm going to start with some favorites. So I'm not getting
the best line. But if you watch the raven Steelers play, Baltimore was a much better team two drop touchdown passes. Lamar Jackson is having a spectacular season. Dropped passes are like fumbles and fumble recoveries. They go in spurts. Baltimore is a really good team getting healthier. I don't think Tennessee is it's four and a half. I'd like it four. It is what it is. I get the much more dynamic quarterback. I also get a great coach, no coaching disadvantage.
The rabel Baltimore minus four and a half Sharper square.
Well, it's square, but but it's not square like some of your other square picks. Yeah, this is sort of square in the sense that wise guys are taking the Titans because of the number and nothing else.
Your logic is sound.
The conversations I had today were exactly what you just said. The Ravens actually played really well last week. Zay Flowers dropped the pass that was wide open, like there were there were three or four spots where that game was over if the Ravens receivers catch a pass.
Open open, like wide open.
Wide open, and so it was.
It was a very fluky, fluky game, right, Like in what universe right now, should Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh Steelers be tied with the Baltimore Ravens right for first place in the AFC nors right? So your your logic is sound, and it's why a lot of wise guys have had a hard time with this game. It opened at five and a half, got that down to five, got to four and a half, got down to four. When it got to four, that was sort of the breaking point and people started betting on the Ravens again.
The challenge here that I think is screwing a lot of people up is the fact it's a London game, and if it was, if it wasn't a London game, you'd have Vrabel as more than a field goal underdog. And there are a few coaches in the NFL who wise guys will automatically bet if they're underdogs. Vrabel is one of them. Mike Tomlin is one of them. John Harbaugh is one of them.
Right.
The flip side is that John Harbaugh is not very good as a favorite and Lamar is actually terrible as a favorite. So I think the wise guys are trying to figure out what do I think of the London factor in all this, and it's scaring them a little bit, But they're taking the Titans.
One more favorite. I like the number at two and a half. It'll probably be three in most areas. Bengals minus two and a half hosting Seattle, so well, Seattle has extra time. I value extra time differently with offensive coaches who bring more tricks Andy Reid, McVeigh, Shanahan than I do defensive coaches who are largely motivators. They give guys rest. They want healthy defensive guys. I don't look at Pete Carroll, Tomlin Belichick extra at rest like I
do Andy Reid or McVeagh. So I get a more rested Seattle team, But I get a significantly better quarterback who now is healthy. So the Bengals for three straight years have been a lousy September early October team. Why Burl had two surgeries and a calf injury. It's about this time Cincinnati hits. These games are also urgent for them, so they play with great urgency early in this division. That's good. Minus two and a half, I think it's a great number. Minus three, I'd still bet at three
and a half. I move off at Sharper square.
At two and a half, at sharp at three. It's not So it's really this is about the number, and you know, to use a football metaphor, it's a fifty to fifty ball, right. It's really about how much do you believe in Joe Burrow? And a lot of professional betters believe that what they saw with last what they saw last week with Joe Burrow is that he's better. And part of it is, Hey, every year the Bengals starts slow, he's injured, he takes time to get his timing.
Jamar Chase the past two weeks has basically against the Rams and then against the Cardinals has basically had a season's worth of receptions and receiving yards, like he's really found his rhythm with Joe Burrow again. And what the Wise Guys liked about Joe Burrow last week. It's not the fact that they beat the Cardinals, who probably are a team that has been overperforming regardless, and kudos to their coaching staff for getting so much out of that talent.
But it was the way Joe Burrow was able to move into the pocket, he was able to get around offenders, maintain his stance, step into throws, find his timing with Jamar Chase. That's what they like about it. I mean, I'm sure you and Cosell, you know, probably talked about this on the show this week. But that's why they're betting on the Bengals of two and a half. And they do feel if they had looked a little bit better one week earlier, they might be getting the Bengals four.
So there's about a point and a half of value. But at three, they buy back the Seahawks or they pass the market.
Sometimes is a week late. I just think they're a week late on Cincinnati. I think they're by the end of this game, they'll catch up to Cincinnati. So let's go to underdogs. So the Rams lost to the Eagles, but if you watch the game, it wasn't close. When you play Philadelphia and your defense is on the field for forty minutes, that team that will have repercussions this week. I don't love Arizona, but at plus seven six and a half, the stadium is not a home field advantage.
Numbers came out this week showing that home field is now down to one and a half points. Well, the Rams is less than that, so it's really do I think a Rams team off a Philadelphia game in which they got beat up physically. I don't like teams that play the next week after they play the Niners or the Eagles in the NFC. The seven here, the six and a half is screaming Arizona for the record Vision rivalry game. Arizona played San Francisco tougher than you'd expect.
I'm gonna take the point Sharper square.
Yeah.
The Cardinals are a real conundrum for better this year, as have the Rams been a conundrum for betters this year. Because the Cardinals everyone expected them to be the worst team in the league, and certainly there was a lot of mocking of Jonathan Gannon before the season began with his social interactions with his players, right, that sort of
became a meme on social media. And what you've seen with the Cardinals and what you've seen with the Colts, and a byproduct of this is what you've seen with the Eagles is how good Gannon has been and putting his pilayers in a position to succeed, making the right play calls that give them confidence in high risk situations that put them in a better position statistically to win.
Saint Stikeen's done the same exact thing with the Colts, which is why professional betters are liking the Colts and not so worried about Gardner Minshew also seen with the Eagles, the lack of those two guys has had an impact on how they play on defense and how they play on offense, which is a testament to how good they were.
Right.
The Rams meanwhile, and I'm equivocating a little bit here, The Rams meanwhile, have been great against the spread until this past week. So the wise guys have come in on the Rams because this number has gone up. But there's not a ton of confidence on this game. It's not a game where I've got my phone blowing up and people are saying, oh my god, I love the Cardinals here, or oh my god, the Rams are exact right spot.
It's sort of like you took the Rams at six and a half. It's at seven. We're going to kind of pass from here.
I want to take sha I do think I will say one more thing like Colin. I think people thought the Cardinals were at the top of the market after the Cowboys, and they've done everything they can do with the talent they have. Josh Jobs was not as good last week. They've been a little bit exposed. There's only so much coaching that you can do when you're talent isn't up to park.
So I'm going to take Chicago extra rest plus two and a half. I think it's a locker room game. Justin Jefferson's out trade rumors Kirk Cousins, the white flag is up inside the locker room. Players are now playing just to be capable on film of not getting called out on Monday. Chicago feels like we found the magic potion. Chicago has an energized locker room. Justin Fields is playing to retain his position, and Kayleb Williams not yet drafted this is an energized team at home, extra rest found
their magic. I think you're going to get a Minnesota team that I think the messaging is waving the white flag. I take the Bears. I love it.
At three two and a half, I still like it. Sharper Square, Yeah, that's sharp. Whyse guys like the Bears here, It's why it's been bet down. It was at three, it went down to two and a half. It's a fascinating game, and in a lot of weeks you probably want to play the Vikings because of this situation they just found themselves in and the situation the Bears found
themselves in, which was winning in prime time. So bookmakers will automatically inflate their line, right, they would be a little bit higher than they normally would because they think the public is going to come in on a team that just dominated in prime time. What's interesting here is a lot of what you just said about the Vikings. They might be the better team, but strategically they have
not been making the right calls on defense. This is a team that is blitzing at an extraordinary rate, one of the highest blitz rates in the NFL, with the least amount of success right, So they're getting to the quarterback on blitzes half the amount of time as other teams in the NFL, even though they're running so many more blitzes. I do think that plays a little bit to the Bears advantage with the way they're starting to use Justin Fields as a runner a little bit more.
And also DJ Moore and him have started to click.
And if you look pat, if you look back, one of the reasons people were so excited about the Bears this year is because Justin Fields, who had been developing, got a number one receiver in DJ Moore. Number one receivers make young quarterbacks better. Their catch radius is better, they get fifty to fifty balls more often. They make young quarterbacks more accurate and more confident. You saw it when Stefan Diggs joined the Bills and Josh Allen. You
saw it when aj Brown joined Jalen Hurtz. We hadn't seen that with the Bears the first three weeks. We have seen in the past two weeks where Justin Fields and DJ Moore have been lights out. I think this is a really good spot. The Vikings secondary is not very good, and if they are blitzing, then that gives Justin Fields an opportunity to get DJ Moore in advantageous situations.
All right, there's always a game I ask you about because I am interested. So I thought Niners minus four and a half was to play now at seven. If it's a backup quarterback against who with little prep time against this defense, this defense may not be as good in the red zone as they were a year ago. It's hard to get in the red zone. You're giving me a backup if Deshaun doesn't play. I don't care what the number is. Again, I usually fade teams in
dominating wins. This team is playing after losing to Philadelphia. They're playing to go seventeen to zero. They are physically mauling teams early, backups trailing are not going to move the ball in this defense. I didn't put it in there. I could be talked into it. Where are the wise guys?
Well, looks at seven, the wise guys are on in Cleveland. There's just new two ways about it. And the game was at three, I know, and the wise guys last week started betting the Niners and betting the Niners and betting the Niners.
Because there was the rumor about Deshaun Watson.
Seven, seven and a half eight, which it may get to because the public is just going to keep pounding the Niners until this kickoff. The wise guys are going to be in the Browns because while the Niners have a great defense, the Browns have an historically great defense. Six red zone possessions in four games so far this year.
They act like they can win games by themselves. Remember the eighty five Bears, yea, Like they would get on the field, it didn't matter what their offense was, they would get on the field and you would assume, all right, the Barrels will just score two touchdowns on defense, Like that's what the Browns can do, and you are getting the Niners right now. Look, Rock Purty is seven to one to be MVP because he threw four touchdown passes against the Dallas Cowboys, and the Dallas Cowboys who did
not have their best cornerback playing for them anymore. So this guy Rock Purdy looks like a brilliant, brilliant quarterback, and I think he is. But is he going to look that good against a Browns defense that is as good as they are from front to back. He's not playing the Cowboys secondary. He's playing Jim Schwartz defense that is going to be incredibly aggressive and by the way, that has dominated in scenarios like this against Kyle Shanahan.
So seven's a lot, Colin.
I know it's ugly, but this could be an ugly game whether it's supposed to be bad throughout the Midwest.
I'm taking the.
Seven and finally talk me into an ugly game, talk me into something I haven't touched. What about Houston Saints.
This is an interesting game.
The public has been coming in on the Texans to the point where it's been bet down to the Saints or minus one. The last guys are going to bet the Saints in this game, like they actually can't believe they're able to get the Saints at minus one.
There will be regression with CJ. Shroud.
You started to see a little bit of it last week. He was brilliant at the end of the game with that drive that put them ahead in the final two minutes, but throughout the game there were some moments where he made some really bad passes that should have been intercepted by a Falcons defense that is not nearly as good as the Saints, and that is one thing the Saints have been doing really well this year. I'm not a
Dennis Allen fan. I don't know why anyone would hire Deniz Allen to be a head coach, but he's a very good defensive coordinator, and he's got that defense playing at a really high level right now.
So I like the Saints in that game.
Two games we haven't discussed that I think are pretty gross, and i'd like you to consider. Remember I'm seventeen and three the past two weeks. Colin, all right, I want you to be with me on this train. Can I interest you in the New England Patriots plus three plus three and a half against the Las Vegas Raider.
Nope, not going to listen. Go to the next one. Will not listen. I'm not listening. I refuse to listen. Why listen. It's like somebody that says, trust me, you'll love Radiohead. Let's go to the concert.
Can what about the What about the Tampa Bay Okay buccaneer?
Yes, plus three plus three and a half against the Lions.
Plus three and a half Tampa's de side. I could be talked into that because that was one of the games I have here on my list that I didn't do. Tampa plus three and a half. Detroit comes off a big win. The world loves Detroit. Carolina is really bad, and actually Tampa Bay at home is pretty good.
Yeah, and Baker, Look, there is some question about right now about Mike Evans because he is still a little bit injured. But a couple of things have changed for Baker Mayfield. You might notice in watching these Bucks games, and I've been fading the Bucks and so like I've had to pay attention to them because my rating on them is changing a little bit. He's not making the enormous amount of Baker mistakes that he's made.
In the past.
Right, he seems to have learned something in his travels from Cleveland to Carolina to la Certainly Sean McVay put something in his ear that made him realize he's making the same mistakes over and over when it comes to risk taking. And I also think you naturally are better when you have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. He's never had receivers like this, So I think there's a big opportunity here to buy.
A little bit lower on the Bucks and sell way way way high on the lines.
Like look, Jared Goff, most profitable quarterback against the spread the past five years in the NFL. But he's a much different quarterback when he's in a dome than he is on the road, and he's under five hundred against the spread on the road. People love the lines right now, they're dominating, but this is a tough spot.
The volume