Colin Cowherd Podcast - TNF Reaction, McCarthy’s Very Good Cowboys, Seahawks Not Better Without Russ, Sharp or Square - podcast episode cover

Colin Cowherd Podcast - TNF Reaction, McCarthy’s Very Good Cowboys, Seahawks Not Better Without Russ, Sharp or Square

Dec 01, 202331 min
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Episode description

Colin reacts to the Cowboy’s shootout win over the Seahawks! He gives props to Mike McCarthy for turning the cowboys from a “pretty good” into a “very good” team (4:45). He also looks at the level of play we’ve seen recently from Geno Smith and Russell Wilson and questions the idea that the Seahawks “won the Russ trade” (7:15).

Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, stops by for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for the Week 13 NFL slate! 

18:40 - Chargers vs Pats

20:45 - Eagles vs 49ers

23:00 - Lions vs Saints

24:40 - Broncos vs Texans

26:20 - Cardinals vs Steelers

27:55 - Packers vs Chiefs

29:45 - Browns vs Rams

32:15 - Falcons vs Jets

34:00 - Dolphins vs Commanders

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.)

Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #Herd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

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one hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. S sportsbook dot DraftKings dot com, slash basketball terms for eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms and responsible gaming resources all right, time for an instant reaction. I thought al Michaels and Kirkharshet were very good tonight because the game was very good. It's hard to do a bad NFL game when you get really poor quarterback play. There's only so much you

can do. And I think sometimes people are over critical of al Michaels and you know, to consume with his age. I thought he was sharp tonight, funny, quick witted that line at the end and another kind of tush push when Micah Parsons was blocked by Lucas the Seattle right tackle and he backed into him. So I thought it was a really really good product tonight, and I thought

it was a really good football game. I mean, again, couldn't you imagine Seattle scoring thirty five points if you've watched their offense in the last month, And can you imagine Dallas's defense being that lousy against Geno Smith. It was a really good game. First, I want to address the penalties. There were too many flags. I had a head coach in the NFL and a couple executives text

me during the game, They're like, this is brutal. I will say this not in defense of the officials, because I just I think I don't understand you should throw a flag when you see a penalty. I think sometimes referees anticipate penalties. Call what you see, not what you anticipate. Now, I will say dan Quinn, who used to coach under Pete Carroll, is very aggressive, and Pete Carroll's defense can be very aggressive. So you had two of the most

aggressive defensive guys in the NFL working tonight. And what does that mean. It means you're going to have corners, safeties riding tight ends and wide receivers more than an average Bellichick. Pete Carroll, dan Quinn, Tomlin. These are very aggressive defensive coaches and officials get into situations where they want to set the tone, and so they start calling penalties early to set the tone, and dan Quinn and Pete Carroll don't pull back they keep telling their players

to be aggressive. So the officials have already set the tone in the game, and now they're going to keep calling penalties because they want to be consistent. I still thought they missed a couple. There were a couple of tiki tak calls on the Seahawks' corners, But that's my explanation for it. Dan Quinn and Pete Carroll are aggressive referees, try to set a tone, and then they realized, we've set the tone. We got to be consistent. We just called stuff that looked like that earlier. We got to

call this. You know, you have to be very careful about confirmation bias. We all have strong feelings about things, but over time there's no one truth with anything. So when Aaron Roger and Mike McCarthy broke up, I think the feeling was Aaron could be prickly and difficult, but McCarthy maybe wasn't up to snuff, and so they bring in Matt Lafleur, and for a couple of years we

just think, oh boy, Aaron's finally got his guy. Aaron has a better career playoff record with Mike McCarthy above five hundred than he does Matt Lafleur under five hundred. Mike McCarthy goes to Dallas. We don't love his situational coaching, but he has a winning record with Farv Rogers, Dak and Cooper Rush. And this is the best I have ever seen Dak Prescott. He feels a notch better than

he's ever been in his career. Now he's getting better protection from Tyron Smith on the left, who's healthy again. He and Ceedee Lamb now is an elite connection. Ferguson the tight end now is getting more and more productive. They don't have a consistent run game, but Dak was twenty nine of forty one three TVs no picks in

three hundred yards. I thought he was excellent tonight. Excellent tonight. Well, Mike McCarthy gets some credit for that, and Aaron Rodgers had arguably his best year with Mike McCarthy and Farv's last year he was thirteen and three, and Cooper Rush looked like kind of a quasi starter with Mike McCarthy.

So four or five years ago we view Mike McCarthy as one thing, and now we have to look around and go, you know, he Pete Carroll John Harbaugh, Doug Peterson, Sean Payton, all have a Super Bowl, all have a second job in the NFL and are building a winning program at that NFL franchise. So to me, Mike McCarthy is Harbaugh, is Pete is Doug Peterson? Is Sean Payton

second time around winning again? You know, and speaking of that about our initial perceptions, So what if Sean Payton gets the Denver job, doesn't new TV for Fox and Nathaniel Hackett never does, or our initial perception is Pete really pulled it over John Snyder, and Pete really pulled one on Denver. They got Geno Smith, We got Geno Smith, they get Russell Wilson. He's washed. But if Sean Payton doesn't do TV and just takes that Denver job, Russell

Wilson looks exactly precisely like he looked in Seattle. One hundred plus passer rating, twitchy playmaking moves out of the pocket, makes big throws, very few turnovers. And we don't view that as Pete Carolyn john Snyder getting one over on the Broncos. We say, you give up a better quarterback in a quarterback league, and you have Geno Smith, right. Last five weeks, Peyton and Russell Wilson looked like Seattle

Russell Wilson, who is an a quarterback. So I look at Seattle now, and you got yourself a five hundred team with one big win this year at Detroit. That's a nice win. But now the Rams are playing better. San Francisco's clearly better, Dallas is better, Philadelphia is better, you know, keep your eye on. I still think Detroit is better than Seattle. They certainly are now, and keep your eye in Minnesota and the winner of the NFC South. So what is Seattle today a five hundred team that

needs a quarterback to get to the next level? What is Denver today the hottest team in the AFC with a franchise quarterback and a Hall of Fame potential coach and a lot of good players. So McCarthy, Russell Wilson, Gino Smith got to be careful about having really strong opinions and not being willing to look at a story as it evolves and changes, and stories change all the time. I can feel strongly about a political candidate one year, he makes some missteps, so I don't feel the same.

I've said this before. You can have a stock in a company, and then all of a sudden the company Apple makes some missteps. I used to own a lot of Starbucks stock, don't owe as much now. Nothing against Starbucks, great company. The course of time I've had it sold it had it sold it based on the momentum the company. You know. So you've got to be willing to look at stuff and be honest and not be stubborn. And you know the Seattle Denver trade. Now, I'd rather have

Russell Wilson and Gino Smith. Now Seattle may draft Bo Nicks or Michael Pennox and in a year I feel again like Seattle won. But if Denver doesn't hire Nathaniel Hackett, that never looks like a landslide that it did. Briefly, Let's go back to the Cowboys. So the knock in the Cowboys was going into this game. They'd beaten the Giants twice, the Jets, Washington, New England, Carolina beat up Rams team, and the Chargers, well, Rams are now pretty good.

Chargers are talented. You know, Seattle's competent, and Washington's always in most games they're a nine and three football team. I don't think there was talented as San Francisco, but I do think they present some things where you can are they can go toe to toe and beat Philadelphia. And the number one reason is the Cowboys have seven blowout wins, and over the last decade, nine of ten Super Bowl teams have averaged seven to eight blowout wins.

Dallas has seven, Philadelphia has two. So San Francisco and Dallas are the two teams in the NFC that blow people out. They flex because they can. Philadelphia love to blow people out, but they can't. They're back end of their defense is weak. Offensively, Jalen Hurts is terrific, but he has become a very good second half quarterback and can struggle in the first half. They've trailed their last

four games at half. So I think if you're a Dallas Cowboy fan, I've always had the kind of the same feeling about the Cowboys for the last twenty five years. I always say, Tony Romo is pretty good, the Cowboys are pretty good, Jason Garrett was pretty good, Mike McCarthy's pretty good, Deck's pretty good, and I'm always right. They always went about nine or ten games, maybe eleven twelve.

But I never feel that our Super Bowl team. I do believe eve if Ceedee Lamb stays healthy and Tyron Smith the left tackle, stay healthy because Dak's having a good year and McCarthy's obviously elevating Dak, that if they can stay healthy with Tyron Smith, Ferguson's you know, productive, and Ceedee Lamb, they can they can win shootouts, and they're good enough defensively, there'll be a good team playing

with a lead because of the pass rush. I do wish they went and acquired like a Derreck Henry at the trade deadline. I think what they really miss is they have a lead in the game and they just want to eat the clock. They want to power run it, and they're not really that's not what they're built to do.

They can score, they can score quickly, they can score a lot, but I don't I feel like they miss sort of that power offense where they could just hand it off to a Derek Henry and just say six minute drive, let's pick up first downs, never drop back to throw so and I think San Francisco can do that, Philadelphia can do that. They're the better teams. Baltimore can do that, the better teams in the league can do it, and I don't think Dallas can. But we have to

be honest about Mike McCarthy. We have to be fair and reasonable. And Mike McCarthy has taken Dak Prescott, you know, a couple of years ago pretty ugly injury. Michael Gallup's never been what they thought. Brandon Cooks isn't what everybody promised he would be. They lost Dalton Schultz, they couldn't afford him Amari Cooper, and you look up today. Dallas's good football team. And I've been calling them pretty good for twenty five years. I think they're very good. I

think they're a very good football team. And I haven't gone pretty good to very good in Dallas many times. But you can't get too caught up on the fact that their defense gave up a bunch of points tonight. Listen, it's the NFL. It's in college football. DK Metcalf was a huge matchup problem. See ALA's got Lockett, the rookie receiver, Noah Fense, a huge body. DJ Metcalf and I thought their offensive line tonight. You know, i' rated some holes early,

especially on the ground. You'll Seattle's got a lot of talent. They've Shane Waldron's a respected offensive coordinator. You're not gonna throw shutouts right that the defensive rules don't allow it. You're not keeping talented teams and veteran coaching staffs to seventeen points every week. It happens. But I think I'm gonna go from pretty good to very good for the Cowboys. And I have not done that much, and Mike McCarthy

deserves credit, and I've been critical. But dex twenty nine to forty one, three hundred yards three DD's no picks. That's big boy football. How about them Cowboys? November is here. We are in the heart of the football season, hockey and basketball just starting out. Best way to get tickets to any of these games is on game Time, the fastest growing ticket app in the United States. Game Time it's obsessed with finding ways to help you save money

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did not do Thanksgiving picks. I think I would have been about two two and one. I didn't think Dallas would cover the spread. Missed on the Lions, but had a couple other picks. So let's just start with this week. I've been taking more favorites. I think is the season Ebbs better quarterbacks because there's so many injuries, can overcome banged up rosters. So my first take is Chargers minus five and a half at New England. I do not believe the Patriots want to win. I believe they want

the third pick. How do I know this? Because of some of the moves they've made in the secondary with players deactivating them and releasing them. They did not want to beat the Giants. They play, they don't announce the quarterback. I don't love the Chargers, but you have a staff playing for their lives. I'm taking the Chargers minus five and a half. Sharper square.

Speaker 2

Number one, Colin, if you didn't make any picks, you wouldn't have gone to two and one. You would have gone five. And that's just the way it goes. Number two on this one, the wise guys are against you. The line was at six, it's moved down to five and a half. This is not about the Patriots. You're not finding wise guys who are saying, boy, I'm really excited to bet On Bailey z Appy and I think this team is really primed to do something great. It's

fading the Chargers. You say this team is this coaching staff is fighting for its lives. I think it's already over. I think the wise guys think it's over. It's not a team that's in playoff contention. It's not a team that's going to make the playoffs. It's a team with an incredible amount of talent that continues to not be able to execute. There's no reason for this team to be a six point now five and a half point

favorite on the road. It's not good enough defensively. They haven't proven to be good enough offensively in terms of executing. Keenan Allen has there's ninety seven receptions. He's second in the league in receiving yardage. It's the quietest, most irrelevant combination of great stats you're gonna see from a wide receiver on a team that doesn't matter.

Speaker 1

It's not the best number. I thought the bet of the week was the Niners plus points at the Eagles, but extra time to prepare for San Francisco, healthy, little revenge edge, and the number of snaps Philadelphia's defense, not very good to begin with, was on the field. I'm still going to take the Niners. I think they could win by seven to ten. By the way, super Bowl champs dating back seven years on average have eight blowout wins.

Philadelphia has two. They we think they're a Super Bowl team because they're very good in these one possession games. So was Minnesota last year, the Seahawks two three years ago, the Cowboys three years ago. Those teams get eliminated fast in the playoffs. San Francisco is the better team. They win here by seven points. Sharper square, totally sharp. The wise guys were on this look Sunday night. It was moving from two and a half before the Bills game

was over. It was down to San Francisco plus two and a half San Francisco plus one before the game was over. Literally, I was trying to make a bet on Sunday night on the Niners at plus one, and before I could click done, the line moved from plus one to minus one Niners, and then it's gone up to two and a half. Every time it goes up to three, the wise guys take the Eagles of plus three. Then the other wise guys take the Niners at minus two and a half.

Speaker 2

You said something really important. The Niners are blowing teams out When Deebo, Samuel and Trent Williams are playing. This team is eight to zero. They're winning by an average of twenty one points. The team has not played in ten days. They're as healthy as they've ever been. The Eagles, as you noted, had a lot of snaps. They played ninety five snaps in a really bloody war against the Bills in a rainy, rainy Sunday game. They have not

had as much time to get healthy. And I was listening to other podcasts like NFL Players, they talk on these on these podcasts, they made it one of those. Chris Long on his podcast made a really good point. Every hour counts when you are trying to recuper rate for the next week. This is not a good spot for the Eagles.

Speaker 1

This is why the wise guys have been all over there, not getting the mess number at all. I like the Lions minus four, but I'll take them minus four and a half. I think Dennis Allen is in the race for the worst coach in the league. I think they massively underachieve Derek Carr. You know, I always saw him as a life preserver of the Raiders. Maybe he's just checked down. Charlie and not very good. Lions have been beaten now not feeling good about themselves. I don't think

the Saints can beat them at their weakness. I think Detroit humiliated extra time to prepare bounces back. I'll take him to cover. Not the best number. Sharper square.

Speaker 2

Yeah, it's there's not a consensus on this game. The wise guys lean Saints. It's why the number has sort of stayed where it is because the majority of the action, the public action, is all coming in on the Lions, and we saw it like and it's been at four basically since Monday. And when there's that much money coming in on one side and the line really doesn't move, it's because the wise guys are sort of anchoring it in place, right, And so you know that the wise

guys have been taken the Saints here. It's not like it's going to be their biggest bet of the week. There are other games that the wise guys love a lot more, but they like the number here not because of what the Saints can do or necessarily what the

Lions can't do. The last couple of weeks, Jared Goff hasn't played as well right, and Dan Campbell, who's a brilliant football coach, also has an incredibly good offensive line and he's got two really good running backs, and playing against the Saints, he has an opportunity to control the clock and let those guys run. It shortens the game, but it also means potentially less scoring, so it just might not be as big of a margin, which is why the wise guys like that.

Speaker 1

The game I'm betting solely because of the number. I think the Texans probably win, but I would take Denver plus three and a half. I worry about the regression of the turnovers, which have gone all Denver's way in the last month, but they've also created many of those. The thing about Denver is their defense now is a story, and their run game they don't make mistakes. They keep it very much in the fairway. Houston's still young. CJ. Stroud is still young. He will face pressure. I think

it's a field goal game. But the hook, I'd take Denver plus three and a half. You know, at this point in the year, you take the hook if you feel strongly about a team. Denver's won five straight. It's not luck. They're creating a lot of their own opportunities. Russell Wilson now making more plays, running more. Run game is very solid, and both can also be active in the screen game. I'll take Denver in the point Sharper Square.

Speaker 2

The coaches you want to bet on the past twenty years Colin Mike Vrabel, Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, Sean Payton, and before the past couple of years, Bill Belichick. Those guys cash tickets. They are profitable coaches. By the way, Dennis Allen, I meant to mention this, one hundred and forty three coaches in the past twenty years, he's one hundred and forty second as the least profitable coach. So one more reason why you might be right to bet the Lions. But I think that the hook, what you're

talking about, getting the hook is the right side here. Wise, guys have been a little bit all over this one, like getting bet at hard when it was at two and a half for the Texans, it's gotten a three and a half. They've come back a little bit on the Broncos. I think they are just playing the number. If it's below three, they're playing the Texans. If it's above three, they're playing the Broncos.

Speaker 1

I would take Cardinals plus five and a half at the Steelers. I think Kyler Murray is so much better than Kenny Pickett, it's hard to imagine. Also, they were humiliated, the Rams pushed them around. Some of that was injury related. Pittsburgh probably wins. That offense is not worthy of five and a half points. I'm gonna take the Cards. Sharper square.

Speaker 2

I just mentioned Mike Tomlin one of the most profitable coaches the past twenty years. That's because he wins so often when he is an underdog, not just covering the spread, but winning outright. He is no good as a favorite of more than three, thirty seven percent against the spread in his career as a favorite of more than three. And let's not be fooled by the fact they gained four hundred yards of offense the first game after Matt

Canada leaves. Kenny Pickett is not an accurate passer and they got the right team in the right spot with a backup quarterback the Cardinals. While they got pushed around by the Rams, they did keep it close against the Texans. They covered against the Texans that was a five point game. The scary thing here and this was a lot of conversations I had with wise guys this week. Kyler Murray is so good scrambling. Since he's back, He's averaged nine

point four yards per scramble. He's a first down every time he leaves the pocket. The one thing the Steelers will want to do is rush the passer. That is what they are best at as a defensive unit. Kyler Murray is able to combat that, and it leaves the back door for this team why to open the entire game, because the Steelers won't be able to run away with it in terms of scoring. So that's why the wise guys are backing you and back.

Speaker 1

In the Packers or the side I would imagine at plus five and a half and Mahomes is a bad cover if it's over like four or five. I do think Kansas City found a little bit of their way in the second half. I think Rashi Rice is starting to look like a one. Jordan Love is overvalued. The Chargers and the Lions secondaries are really really bad, and Kansas City's isn't. I'm going to bet the Chiefs. I know it's square.

Speaker 2

Comment on it, Well, it's square, just this, but it's interesting. It's interesting because this is a game the wise guys have sort of planted a flag and the sand on and they've decided that Jordan Love since week nine is a top five quarterback. And there are a lot of stats, a lot of the advanced metrics you can look at

EPA things like that. They will tell you that Jordan Love has been incredibly good the past five weeks and You can also look at what the Chiefs have done and take last week against the Raiders with a grain of salt. They have been terrible in the second half. Second half unders with the Chiefs this year eleven and zero. They are not a team scoring in the second half.

So what the wise guys are banking on is an improving quarterback against a team that has not been scoring in the second half, and the opportunity to keep the game close when they are at home as a big underdog, and especially these primetime games, they have been trending towards the under and so when you have a game that is going to be low scoring, the bigger under JG tends to cover.

Speaker 1

All right, we do something. I want you to talk me into a game. Rams look really good, so they'll, I imagine, pull back against Cleveland. So the Browns plus four and a half. Now it's three and a half all odds provided by DraftKings. My guess is the Sharps like Cleveland, but now Joe Flacco is a viable starter that is not good. Their offensive lines beat up, Miles Garrett will play. I imagine the Browns are the side.

Tell me how the wise guys think, because I got to tell you the Rams have solved their O line issues. They're healthy now, Kymeron Williams. It's a real run game. I think Raheem Morris is one of the most underrated coordinators in the league. That defense is kids. They are playing really sound football. I could see the Rams winning again. Tell me why the wise guys probably like the points here.

Speaker 2

Well, they do like the points here, and they like Cleveland and the points and part of it is, Look, the Rams offensive line running game will be good no matter who the quarterback is, and that is something that will always keep you in the game. And Miles Garrett, look, there was no structural damage. He came out right away and said he's going to be playing. He'll take whatever painkiller he needs to take. I don't worry about Miles Garrett.

Miles Garrett with one arm is still a tremendous playmaker. And don't forget he's got help right Like, he's got help on the other side of the edge rushing line, he's got help in the defensive backfield. There's playmakers at every level for that team. And you know, Jim Schwartz is just going to call these insane aggressive schemes against Matthew Stafford. And you say the offensive line is improving. I say the offensive line is still struggling. And that

is a real detriment for the Rams. This is not the Cardinals. The Cardinals are one of the worst defenses in the league. They can't stop the run. It made everything so much easier for Matthew Stafford and the Rams, and Kyron Williams coming back had the exact game that he expected, that everyone expected him to have. It's why the Wise guys were a little chalky last week, and they liked the Rams. They kept betting the Rams up. So that's why. Also why the Wise guys are on Cleveland.

Speaker 1

So give me a couple of games I missed, you like, try to talk me into something.

Speaker 2

Let's talk about the New York Jets plus two and a half against Funny.

Speaker 1

I just mentioned this off the air to j Mac yesterday. I thought it's interesting. I Atlanta. You know, people want to have every coach fired. But when I watch Atlanta, I don't look at a poorly coach team. When I look at the Saints or the Chargers, I look at a poorly coach team. I think Arthur Smith is fine. He just doesn't have a quarterback, So so tell me the side.

Speaker 2

Yeah, well it's the Jets. And there's a couple of different factors here. Number one, you're talking about a team.

Speaker 1

Let's talk.

Speaker 2

Let's talk from a trend perspective, right, Teams that have been blown out the previous week against teams that haven't been blown out the previous week, say twenty points or more in the blowout, they covered a sixty percent clip the past five years. So who are we talking about this week. We're talking about Cleveland, We're talking about Washington, We're talking about the New York Jets, right, So that's number one. Number two, let's look on the field, this

Jets defense. The past few weeks, who have they played. They've gone up against Tua, They've gone up against Justin Herbert, They've played really good quarterbacks. That is hard to do every single week. They find relief this week against Desmond Ridder. He is not an NFL quarterback. As soon as this season is over, you are not going to hear from Desmond Ridder anymore. And I agree with you, Arthur Smith. I think he's a great coach. I love watching his offenses.

I think from a running schemes as interesting and sophisticated as it gets in the NFL, but they don't really have the weapons. That dest member can't get the ball to his weapons, and so you've got an incredible defense at every level going against a really bad quarterback outside on the road in what could be the last chance for the Jets to prove defensively how much pride they have.

And who knows, maybe they got a little bit of a kick from Aaron Rodgers coming back to practice this week, but emotionally, this is the spot where you want to.

Speaker 1

Take the Jets. Give me one more Washington.

Speaker 2

Well, Washington's an interesting one, right, I'm looking at my notes here. Washington is the other one. Like we hit Arizona, we hit the Niners, we hit Green Bay. We just hit the Jets. There are two other games Tennessee plus one just because I like Vrabel as an underdog, and I also think that Tennessee can run the ball against a Colts defense that Grover Stewart, who was in the first six weeks and has been out for the past month with the suspension. When he was in, that was

a very good rush defense. When he is out, that rush defense is near the bottom of the league, and so I think there is an opportunity for Vrabel to keep the ball out of will Levis's hands. So I like Rabel as a dog at home, almost automatically. Anyways, what are you gonna do with Washington?

Speaker 1

Right?

Speaker 2

Sam Howell is having a brilliant year, and this Miami Dolphins team has struggled to cover big numbers on the road. They are great at home, but they struggle to cover big numbers on the road. So you're gonna be on the road. It's not supposed to be great. Weather, could be windy, could be rainy. I think Eric b Enemy has been having an incredible season as an offensive coordinator. I think he's probably the leading candidate to be that team's head coach next year when Ron Rivera is gone.

And so you're gonna have a chance to cover a big number because Washington's never gonna be out of it. The challenge is their defense is terrible, right, and so you know that every time you get the ball, you're gonna have to score a touchdown if you want to be in this game. The good news is you're down by sixteen points late in the game, it's over. But there's two minutes left. You got the ball on your twenty five yard line. The Dolphins have just scored. Sam

Howell goes down the field. You're coming through the back door. You lose by nine. You cover the number.

Speaker 1

Chad Milman, CEO Action Network. All al is provided by Draft Kings. Good to see anybody, Good to see you too. Man the volume

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