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always sharps versus squares. I am, of course the square. Chad Milner of the Action Network will stop by in ten minutes. Some thoughts watching the Packers, Well, you know, if you're a Packer fan and you're rooting for Jordan Love, your takeaway could be Hey, last couple of weeks, he's been very solid in the second half. He's been a gamer, playing from behind. I like his fight. He doesn't quit. He's got good mobility. He got in the end zone and threw a left handed pass out of the end zone.
If you're not a Packer fan and you have questions about him. You could say last two weeks he has buried himself in the franchise, getting into a big hole, huge deficit, playing from behind when opposing defenses. Let's be honest. You know Derek Carr got hurt. Lion's going to a more conservative mode, time clock eating offense, maybe play a little less aggressive prevent defense. It depends on your perspective.
As I've said before, I'm going to give him two Thanksgiving and then I'll have a definitive opinion on Jordan Love. My takeaway now is he's up and down. I don't see a ton of special although I think he moves really well. He's not overwhelmed. He gets out of trouble, he escapes, he doesn't panic. He's more than competent again in this day and age. He moves well, good size, nice arm. All the elements are there tonight. The Detroit
Lions are a better football team. Jared Goff's a better quarterback. He was drafted number one. He was a better high school, college and so far pro quarterback than Jordan Love. They controlled the game. They have a better offensive line. I don't want to hear Packers were injured. You get to week four, five six in the NFL, everybody's hurt. You know, everybody's banged up. Detroit's a better football team. This has
been a laughing stock of the franchise for years. And it's very possible of golf stays in Detroit, or they draft another quarterback and get it right, they're going to be a very good team for several years. They have drafted well. They have very good players. They're not having to pay yet. Linebackers, tight end, edge rushers, tackles. They've got some dudes. And you know, for years and years, you know, you never really trusted the ownership in the
front office. I really like the executive suite for the Lions. I like their drafts. They've taken some swings players that I watched a lot of in college. Amor On Saint Brown is a much better pro than I thought he would be. I watched every USC game of note that he played in. He's a better pro than I thought he would be. So I think Detroit's just a better team. I think they exhibited it again tonight. I think you know, they lost in over a time to Seattle, but they
beat Kansas City a narrowhead. They dominate the Packers at Lambeau. It's a good football team and they got we're the good players. So you know, they played hard under Dan Campbell last year, but they were just missing a couple elements. They've shored up to defense. They're not a great defense, but they're a better defense. And I like what I see. You know, I think Jordan loves fine to this point. Nothing you see. He doesn't feel overwhelmed like Zach Wilson.
He's not regularly inaccurate like justin fields. There's nothing here that would mortify me.
You know.
Some of this is just he needs snaps. He needs games. He needs snaps. He's been uneven good half bad half good half bad half. That's the sign of a young quarterback. So you can sit on the bench for as long as you want. Aaron Rodgers first year, he was six and ten and then things even out. It's very rare when a young quarterback Trevor Lawrence is a great talent. He has bad halfs, bad quarters, bad games. So I think if you're a Packer optimist, you have to like
what you see with Jordan. You look at the first half, the last two weeks is better teams. Saints are a better team. They have a better defense than Green Bay. I think the Lions have a better roster, all right, But I nothing I see with Jordan Love would would deeply concern me. I'm looking for some it's some special maybe that develops through confidence and wins. But I think
in house. I talked to Tyler Dunn, somebody who's covered the Packers now on his own platform, used to work for the Milwaukee Journal, and he said, in house, there's a feeling that they're a little ahead of schedule. They feel pretty good about it. Lions ran the ball well better than the Packers did, more yards, more rushing yards. That helped a lot. Again, Packers are a little beat up, but you know it's it's I'm on a little bit
of a lucky streak here. So far in the NFC, the teams I had making the playoffs Philadelphia, Dallas, Atlanta, Saints. Only the Lions in the NFC North in Seattle and San Francisco right now would make the playoffs. Seven for seven AFC. I'm waiting on Joe Burrow's calf to heal, and I don't know what's going on with the Jaguars. I had them as a possible number one seed. They're a mess. I do think they'll get healthy against Atlanta this weekend overseas, but all in all, better team one.
It's nice to see the Lions win, you know. I mean, like last year they were close, but you felt like, you know what, they have to win one way, they have to outscore people. Tonight they scored, but didn't necessarily have to outscore people. I thought they had a couple of calls go against them in the game. Then the Packers had that weird call and special teams on the
field goal go against them. All evens out. But you know, you go to bed tonight, you wake up tomorrow and you think about Jordan Love, all right, we got something here, We're okay, We're fine. Doesn't mean you don't draft a quarterback in this draft. I wouldn't draft them in the first round. The Packers don't have huge needs. I really do like their tight ends and the receivers. I really
think Green Bay is well positioned. But this is the youngest team in the NFL, so I think you have to come in with you know, Jordan Loves, inexperienced, incredibly young roster. You gotta temper your expectations this year. Right now, Detroit's on like the second third year of this group. I think they're ahead of Green Bay. I think this team needs the age, and I think they'll age pretty well. So I like the journey. I like watching Jordan Love.
It's fun. There's no indignity losing to a really good, underrated quarterback in Jared Goff. I don't get it. You can't tell me there's twelve guys in the NFL better than Jared Goff. I don't believe it. I think he throws one of the best balls in the league. They have a great online Jared Goff's history is when he has time to throw, he's good. He made some really, really slick throws tonight. I like him, you know that I always have. All Right, everybody, it's time for Sharper Square.
Chad Millman, the CEO of Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings. I went three one one on my blazing five picks. Rams was a push, even though I thought they outplayed the Bengals for the first two quarters maybe two and a half. But that's the way gambling works. All right. Let's start with some favorites. As you know, I'm not a huge fan of favorites. I usually take three to four underdogs. But I think it's interesting Miami goes on the road again. They have struggled to stop
Josh Allen again and again. And here's what concerns me is that Buffalo can create pressure bringing just four. That's the way to slow down Miami New England. You don't need sacks. You need to create a little chaos and pressure. So I think Buffalo minus two and a half. It is one of my favorite bets of the week. At minus three, I still lean Buffalo. But teams that score seventy, they feel themselves a little pull back, a little another flight to the northeast. What say you, Sharper Squareshed.
Dude, it's like you are reading from the sharp script, no joke. Everything you just said is why the wise guys are on Buffalo at minus two and a half. So a they tend to like a divisional game if they can get the favorite under a field goal. So there is a slight lean there. B What you said about the pressure is key. Sean McDermott has had to his number right. Tua has been incredibly good against every other team, and he's been much less good against Sean McDermott.
And now Sean McDermott has what you just said, he has film of what the Patriots did, and the Patriots did a really good job against Tua. Now, look, they have Christian Gonzalez who is turning into an A plus draft pick and a dominant cover corner. But what they basically did with that umbrella coverage was they did not blitz very much. And if you talk about Buffalo, which you just said as well, Buffalo has twelve sacks leading the NFL, right, but they are the third lowest in
pressure from blitzing. So they are not doing it because they are sending a lot of players. They are doing it because their front four is getting to the quarterback. And then look those are all the on the field stats. Let's look at it from a betting point of view. You want to fade the team that just scores seventy points. There's not a lot of data about how teams that score seventy points do against the spread the following week. But I can tell you when a team scores seventy
generally you want to go against that team. There is so much public sentiment for this team. And look, this is a game that is kind of vexing the wise guys a little bit. If you look at the data, seventy percent of the money is on Buffalo. So when you get money on one side, that generally means professional betters like it. But the tickets are kind of split
fifty to fifty. And what's that saying is that people aren't like the wise guys who might like Miami aren't rushing in because they really don't know what to do with this game. They don't know what to do with his team Miami. One wise guy described them to me as a little bit like the matrix full of cheat codes, and so they're either betting Buffalo or they're passing.
My favorite bet of the week is Minnesota minus four against Carolina at Carolina. Here's why Carolina has a problem. There is nobody to throw to. Mingo may not be a bust. He doesn't separate. He's a more talented Nikhil Harry. He doesn't separate. Young quarterbacks need people who separate. That's why actually CJ. Stroud's having a little success his low round, mid round draft picks. They got some guys that can
play so Minnesota. Wouldn't you think of them differently if that last pass was a touchdown and not tipped for a pick. So they're a little undervalued fos the middle of nowhere. Minnesota could have easily won that game, probably should have. And Minnesota's got a veteran quarterback and elite weapon. They're not running the football well, but they matched up pretty well. I think against the Chargers a fairly stacked roster.
I'm gonna lay the four. I'm good with it. I really like the Vikings minus four.
Sharper square kind of a eh like. There's no real consensus on this game. It's not a game that folks are pining to bet. You're not finding an advantage. It's, as we like to say, as you and I like to say, it's a corner TV game, right, someone's gonna bet it so it'll be on in the sports book. But the truth is there's no numbers edge, right and the wise guys don't love Minnesota. They don't love the coaching, they don't love the way they've been playing, they don't
love that defense at all. They don't like Carolina, they don't like Bryce Young, they don't want to bet on Andy Dalton. They agree with you about the weapons on the edge. This game opened at three and a half. It's been bet up to four. I would have felt like if there was some kind of consensus, it would
have been on a home underdog and that Colin. That's sort of the indicator, right, If you're ever looking for signals about who you want to bet on or what wise guys might like, if you see a home dog and the number moves in the direction of the favorite, then you know the wise guys are staying away from it because wise guys tend to jump on home underdogs.
All right, you know I like underdogs. Let me give you three that are tasty. Listen. Sam Hell was overwhelmed, completely overwhelmed. Philadelphia is struggling offensively. It may just be a Shane Stiken issue. They're not the same offense. They'll win. The interior line play here, but the Washington d line can play. When you get humiliated, I'll take the eight. It's a division rival again. Young quarterbacks are hot and cold, and I don't care if it's c J. Stroud Bryce Young.
Sam Hell was awful the week before. He is pretty interesting. I think Sam Hell little course correct I'll take the eight division rival short week for Philadelphia Sharper Square.
Totally sharp. The Wise guys actually are buyers on Sam Howe. They were they were buyers last week on Sam Howell when he went up against Buffalo. They've been really encouraged by what they've seen and the way he's been able to handle himself in the pocket. There were some throws he had against the Broncos two weeks ago that made them sort of stand up and take notice.
And Jos.
Great and he had a play where he stepped up in the pocket hit Terry McLaurin deep when he was double covered, and he put the ball in play and gave him a chance to catch it. So the wise guys have looked at Sam Howell and said, Okay, we think he's better than maybe we were judging. And look the Eagles. I bet I bet the Commanders at plus eight and a half. The number actually moved down to eight, it went back up to eight and a half. There are some places where you can get it at better
than eight and a half right now. So I'm with you on this game, and the wise guys are with you on this game. I think there's one thing, uh, It's why betters might want to wait and see where they can get the best of the number. I think the public is going to love Philadelphia. I think when a team wins in a primetime game and they looked good, and Eagles did look good in the second half, especially like Jalen Hurts has started to figure it out with
his new offensive coordinator. There's gonna be a huge public backing of the Eagles in this game. But I don't like that in huge favorites in a divisional game. So I'm with you on the Commanders, and so are thewise guys.
So all the odds are provided by draft kings. I swear I saw the Patriots getting seven. Maybe I'm wrong. It's now six and a half. I still like it. This feels ugly and low scoring. The best corner in this game three weeks ago was Trayvon Diggs. Now it's Christian Gonzalez. The best pass rusher is still Micah, but Judon's having another great year. The best coach, Let's not get into it. It's an obvious slam dunk coaching edge, and I really I believe this. I think New England's
actually a pretty good team. I don't think they're explosive. I think they missed what we all see a number one receiver. But Jude ju Kendrick Bourne, DeVante Parker running game with great coaching. I'm taking the six and a half. This feels like twenty seventeen, twenty three, twenty That's what it feels like to me. Sharper Square.
Look, the wise guys have bet the Patriots. That's why it moved from seven down to six and a half. I think at six and a half you're kind of playing with fire right because this is a game where it could easily end up as a touchdown, and at least at seven it's a key number. You're getting a push. The debate that's going on about this Patriots team is fascinating, and you know, you're always trying to drive a wedge between me and my bff and co host Simon Hunter
on the favorites. But this has been a game that we had a fierce debate about today. I actually think this is a huge get right spot for the Cowboys. Their red zone against Arizona was terrible. This is an opportunity for them to come back and fix it. Dak in these spots as a favorite at home as a bigger favorite has performed well. The problem is everything you said about the Patriots is true, and it's why the way guys have bet the Patriots down to six and a half.
Mac Jones might be terrible, and we can say all we want about he played in a monsoon, or he's played really good defenses. He has had plenty of opportunities to put the Patriots in good positions with one key throw that were available, and you didn't do it. So it's a very good chance that he's just not very good. And you're betting on a guy who's not very good on the road against a team that could have a really dynamic offense. So not my favorite that I'm gonna say that, right.
I have kind of a belief now that once the once the schedule was extended to seventeen games, people were playing starters in the preseason even less, and so Week one is absurdly unpredictable. The Bills were bad, the Jets look good. That's not truth. Take out Week one for Seattle, where they had no idea what McVeigh was doing with a new offense. They go to Detroit and beat the Lions, the Hammer Carolina and now they get points at New York, and New York's kind of beat up. I think they're
the better team. I think the Rams nobody had a clue what offense they were gonna run. Element of surprise what they dominated that game. Since then, Seattle's pretty good. Seattle's a good football team that I picked against the playoffs that made the playoffs last year. Their young players are better. I'm gonna take the points with Seattle.
Sharper square an interesting choice. It's a sharp play, but not like, oh my god, I'm seeing so much value. It's a sharp play because it's a short number. Is what you just said about the Giants, like they're kind of beat up. There could be regression there. Seattle, actually, like you just said, has played better in the following weeks, and I think for some reason, there's sort of a
hangover with Gino. When he doesn't play well, people tend to think, oh, Gino's terrible, Whereas if he bounces back, he doesn't get the benefit of the doubt the way other quarterbacks would. Right right now, Trevor Lawrence has looked terrible. If Trevor Lawrence plays great this weekend in London, everyone's gonna be like, oh he's back. No one's going to think, oh, Trevor Lawrence is still bad. He just had one good game. But everyone thinks that about Geno until he has six
straight games that are really good. So I can't disagree with you on this, but definitely not one of my favorites.
Okay, so then we play the game. Oh I have one more before we play the game. Let's hear it. So Cleveland minus two and a half at home against Baltimore. I think Cleveland has the best defense in the league. Baltimore's left tackle may play not one hundred percent, same with their center. This is Baltimore. They're beat up in division game. I usually take points. I don't think we like Cleveland because of their quarterback and their history. This
defense is Niners, it's Steelers, It's insane. Baltimore remains some new perimeter weapons, new coordinators, still figuring themselves out, still players coming back on one hundred percent. I'd swallow the two and a half. I'll take Cleveland minus two and a half.
Sharper square totally sharp, but it has to be two and a half. At three, nobody's buying, But at two and a half, everyone's buying from a professional perspective, what you're saying, like, this defense is just it's sick, like all the film breakdown you can do. You've probably had Cosela on to talk about this, like Miles Garrett is playing at a defensive Player of the Year level. From the front four to the back line, they are just stacked and playing incredibly well. Look, I think they've had
there have been thirty something possessions against the Browns. There's been one trip to the red zone against them, Like the Steelers, they didn't get into the red zone. It was all defensive touchdowns. Like, this defense is insane. And Jim Schwartz might have who has had had great careers, the defensive coordinator might have the best level of talent that matches his philosophy that he's ever had. I agree with everything you said about Baltimore. What's tricky about Baltimore
And this is one of those things again. Are you betting what you're seeing on the field? Are you betting what history has told you. Lamar Jackson is a favorite, terrible. We saw it against the Colts last weekend. Lamar Jackson as an underdog, almost unbeatable. John Harbaugh as an underdog, one of the best coaches in the past twenty years, A road division underdog at three, you kind of got a pass, or take the dog at two and a half. You're going to take the favorite.
All right, Now, we play the game. I give you a game that I want to be talked into, and then a game that I totally missed Los Angeles Rams, element of surprise game that look great. Since then the offense is okay. Another road game. Indianapolis gets Anthony Richardson back, Shane Steikin's excellent. Their D and O line combos actually pretty good. I think Indy is going to be a
roller coaster team. But Anthony Richardson actually is a young quarterback, takes some time off, watches the game, extra time to prep with a great OC. I think I would take Indianapolis minus one and a half the Rams. Another road trip, short week, go home, come back. Think I would take Indy here Sharper square.
I think you want to rethink that you're gonna want to take the Rams. That's the sharp side. It's actually a big, big favorite of the wise guys this week. They're all buyers on Matthew Stafford. He's actually having a really good year. And if you look at that game against the Bengals, there's a couple of plays that stand out that win against them. You know, we've talked about
this on the show. We do this thing at Action Network called the Luck Rankings, which basically takes all of the unpredictable plays and puts them in a formula with the predictable plays and tells you, if everything was even, what should the score of that game been and the Rams would have won that game. And the biggest differential between teams that have gotten lucky this far in the season and the teams that have gotten unlucky this far in the season is between the Rams and the Colts
in this game. So to me, if I just see that, I'm automatically going to play the Rams. But the numbers also stack up to Stafford is a better quarterback. This Rams defense is playing better than people expect. Anthony Richardson huge fan like it's Bijon, it's Anthony Richardson, and IT'SHJ. Shroud if you're talking about offensive rookie of the Year. But again, it'll be his first game back after a concussion.
It's not like he's whipping the ball downfield. It's sixty yards per attempt, right, so he's not blowing it up. I think he's a really good player. But I think the Rams as short dogs is the play here.
Well, that's why I call the game to talk me into all right, what did I miss? What's a sometimes an ugly one? I did think about Jacksonville. My guess I thought Jacksonville's the side against that lamb. That's what it felt. That's one of the ones I didn't put in, but I thought that's an ugly one. My guess is Jacksonville overseas, there's a little pressure on them and they're
not really up for it. I almost love them playing overseas and like, you know what, we're going to get out of this country, go do what we do, and we got really good players. Am I right? Am I guessing right here?
No? No, you're totally right. Like Jacksonville is the side. It's the side the wise guys, like it's sitting there at minus three. But yeah, you know, there's a lot of history to tell you that in these London games you want to take the favorites. There's a lot in the field to tell you that you want to take the jags here Look, I think in the first two games, Atlanta surprised a lot of people and made people think twice because they were able to come back, they were
able to maintain. And then what you saw last week against Detroit, where a lot of wise guys were on the Falcons, Desmond Ritter just was terrible. And so without a quarterback, this is a gain right spot for Trevor Lawrence and the Jags. So the wise guys are going to be playing Jacksonville. But I will give you a game that we didn't discuss. Okay, I'm a little surprised you didn't bring it up, because this is a perfect spot for you. The Cincinnati Bengals on the road at
the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee Titans opened at plus two and a half. It's gone back and forth. It went down to two because the wise guys like the Titans. Then the public is coming in on the Bengals because they just won in prime time. Look, you've got a team whose value is deflated because they just got demolished by potentially in historically great defense in the Browns. Right, So that's the Titans, and then a team in the Bengals that beat the Rams. The number on that game had
swung wildly. The Rams opened to six and a half point Dogs, got that down all the way to two and a half point Dogs because of the Borough news Borough plays. He doesn't look great, but he wins. Jamar Chase has a breakout game. It's a prime time game. You're automatically going to have the public come in on that team. Yeah, right, And so all of a sudden, you've got a team that the public loves on the road against a Tennessee team that is one of the
best coach teams in the NFL. They've got a really good defensive line, they've got a really smart quarterback. As much as people don't want to say they like Ryan Tannehill, he plays well when he's put in a position to succeed. He doesn't make the mistakes. And Mike Frabel is a super star as an underdog. Colin, there is one coach the past twenty years who is over five hundred straight up as an underdog, not covering the spread. I mean straight up he wins as an underdog. It's Mike Rabel.
He's the most profitable coach against the spread as an underdog the past twenty years.
You know, I didn't pick that game because for the first time this year, Burrow is playing without a calf restraint, like he's now playing, he's practicing, he's back, and I don't I don't like betting against Joe when he's back and they have to win this game. That was That was That was a game that Jay Mac and I had discussed off air this week, and I'm like, I now, Burrow's not wearing any calf restraints. He's one hundred percent healthy.
And by the way, I thought he played better in the second half against the Rams, calf loosened up a little bit. I'm like, end of that game, it was like, is pretty interesting. All right, that's an interesting one. So I don't know.
I betting means doing bad things, Colin, Sometimes you got to do things.
That's listen. I like Minnesota minus four a lot. You think it's a nothing burger. I like it a lot. I think Minnesota had that tip pass on in their favor. We would think of them differently. It's a play. It's one play and beat up. What do they have?
They have the h one of the leading passers in the NFL, one of the leading receivers in the NFL. And yet they could very much go down as one of those teams like the Jeff George lad Atlanta Falcons with Andre Risen right where they run up these huge, huge numbers. They never scare anybody. Nobody cares about them because it's just it's a sugar rush. It's empty calories. You want to do something scary, Colin, You want to
know the number that was just moving today. It's been sitting for say five days since Sunday, and today the wise guy started pounding it. Are you ready? Are you ready? I am New York Jets home underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs. Tell you right now, I'll tell you right now. I bet this at the Jets plus ten. It had been in nine and a half for most of the week. It bumped up to ten. Yesterday I grabbed it went back down to nine and a half. I'm not saying
I moved the number back. I'm just saying after I grabbed the ten, it went down to nine and a half. Uh And today it's been been steaming in the Jets direction below nine. So you want to talk about a game the wise guys are on. It's the New York Jets can't do it.
I can not do it. Well did Pruden?
Not gonna do it?
Not gonna do it. Chad Milman, CEO Action Net. We're good. See anybody, all right, brother, good luck this week three one and one. I feel good, dude.
I was so excited three one in one. You texted me about the Patriots. I'm like, you gotta do the Patriots. I was so glad for you. I knew you could come back. I knew you.
Could do it. Maybe maybe temporary when I came back, doesn't matter.
See you later.
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