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to Survive, Quarterback, Full Swing Untold Beckham and Moore. Netflix has a story for every type of fan. Netflix turns us all into fans. Hi, everybody welcome in. Gonna be a really good show today. I've got some thoughts about the Steelers went over the Titans. Kenny Pickett and Will Levis. Very encouraging night if you're a Titans fan. Will Levis out played to meet Picket until the very end, and then we'll have Chad Milman on Sharper Square. I had
another winning week on Blazing five tougher week. I like a lot of favorites last few weeks. That's not my history. But we'll get the Chad Millman Action Network CCO in about ten minutes. So there's a saying in football that winning is not a quarterback stat and tonight's a great example.
Kenny Pickett has significantly better wide receiving talent, significantly better roster at home, much more support, better defensive front to pressure Will Levis, and Will Levis for most of the night out played him with a very spartan, very mediocre receiving tight end core on the road. This franchise in
a rebuild with multiple offensive line injuries. Now it's important to note because I know we have a history of Brady going in the sixth round and Dak Prescott going in the third or fourth round and Russell Wilson in the third round. Remember, Will Levis was a first round He was a lottery talent in terms of arm talent, he has a huge arm. Mom went to Yale, was a four point college student. He just turned people off in the interview process. A lot of the gun show
stuff to cocky. So he was a first round talent that dropped to the top of the second Kenny Pickett, two general managers told me and a couple of the best guys in the league, Kenny Pickett was the top of the third to middle third talent. But he was a Pittsburgh kid, and the Steelers needed a quarterback now, and it was a bad quarterback class. And so you can see when they play. Levis has a significantly better arm, a special arm. He's bigger, stronger, thicker, plays with more confidence,
easier thrower. Kenny Pickett doesn't have a lot of special but he's got pickings Deontay Johnson, a couple of really good backs, I think, a healthier offensive line. He's at home. Winning is not a quarterback stat right now. Obviously the great quarterbacks win more than mediocre quarterbacks or certainly bad quarterbacks.
But you can see special with Will Levis. Kenny Pickett has played I think twenty one games as a pro, and I think he's had one game with multiple touchdown passes that is hard to do with this receiving corps. Will Levis has played two games and has won multiple touchdown game. This was a big ask for him. Even on the final drive, that was a big ask under pressure, not a lot to work with. I drove him down the field. Will Levis is really really good. And this is what I mean about Kenny Pickett.
Folks.
It just doesn't take long, you know. I use the analogy all the time. I listen to music. I don't know anything about it, but if you watch the Voice or you watch American Idol, you can tell in fifteen seconds who has talent. It doesn't take long, and none of us are music executives. I looked it up today, Burrow, Trevor, Lawrence, Lamar Jackson, Herbert Dak Mahomes, Russell Wilson. You saw brilliance first year, Jared goffin TUA. You saw brilliance when they
finally got an offensive coach McVeigh or Mike McDaniel. So Kenny Pickett's not going to be getting an offensive coach soon.
Now. People always point to that.
Well, Josh Allen wasn't very good in it initially, But I went and looked at his rookie stants. Now I remember him jumping over people. He was specialist. First year, he had ten passing touchdowns in eighteen total touchdowns. Yeah, he ran for eight six hundred and thirty yards of rushing seven yards of carry. There was all sorts of special from Josh Allen his first year, all sorts of special. If you don't see it as you get to Thanksgiving the second year, and that's the longest you should have
to wait. Will Levis's first start he had four touchdowns and no picks. Four touchdowns, no picks with that Tennessee tight end wide receiver corps and that old line. So I think you already see Will Levis's talent. And again he was a top ten talent arm wise, brain wise. People just thought he was off putting in cocky the gun show at the Combine.
People just didn't like him. He interviewed very poorly.
Remember he was the guy that used to eat the banana peelon put Manny's in his coffee, and then a couple of teams asked him about that during the interview process and he.
Said, why you bringing it up.
Reportedly, he was kind of a brusque in the interviews, blunts and people didn't like it. Executives didn't like it. But he has first round, top ten arm talent, so it just doesn't take long.
People. There's a rule to.
Me that when you start complaining about play calling and wide receiver drops, you have.
A bottom tier quarterback. Right.
You think Justin Herbert gets great play calling or Mahomes Mahomes receivers lead the NFL and drops. At some point, you got to make plays and again, can you pick it?
I'll get the win.
But I think if you're a Tennessee Titan fan, you got your quarterback. There's no reason to play Ryan Tannehill.
None.
Will Levis big, strong, smart, lets it rip, plays with confidence, thick kid. I think he got something now. This organization like New England can't get wide receiver, right. They had Aj Brown for a minute. Now he's an Eagle. But I think you got to be really happy. And I say this regularly, routinely that I am always rooting for all quarterbacks, even Baker Mayfield, to crush it, because nothing's worse than watching backups.
Nothing.
Look at this weekend in the NFL, I mean there's four games I want to watch. Lamar Jackson's in one of them, two against Mahomes and another one, Burrow and Josh Allen another one, and Dak against Jalen Hurts in another one. I mean, we're only halfway through the season and there's four games I'm really locked into. And the worst quarterback in that group is Geno Smith, who I think led the NFL in passer rating last year.
So mediocre quarterback play is.
A bad, bad watch. I still feel the same way about Kenny Pickett. He'll win some games. It's a great organization.
I mean, they just.
Draft and developed so well in Pittsburgh. But Will Levis to me, I see special, I see juice. They got something there, big strong arm, thick kid plays with a ton of confidence. Just get him some help, Okay, Chad Millman, CEO Action Network, Sharper Square all right, NBA fans, Bad Basketball is officially back, and the DraftKings Sports Book, official sports betting partner the NBA is celebrating with an unbeatable offer.
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New customers two hundred dollars instantly in bonus bets by betting just five dollars. Yeah, you heard it right. Only on DraftKings Sportsbook. The code is Colin col i n. The crown is yours gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or visit www dot one eight hundred gambler dot net. In New York call eight seven seven eight hope and why or text hope and y four six seven three
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eight hours after issuance. Se Sportsbook dot DraftKings dot com, slash Basketball terms for eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms and responsible gaming resources. All right, Chad, I am a square, but it had another winning week two one and two. I took Dallas Detroit. On a theory I've been using. It's about week three, which is, if you look at scoring and you look at what's happening and what the referees are allowing, which is more holding that it's really
separating more than ever good quarterbacks from average quarterbacks. That the quarterbacks that are having some success. Last week, the better quarterback won every game except Denver against Kansas City. And frankly, right now, passer rating Russell's higher than Mahomes. So as I say that, and this is a wonky week for lines, let me throw a couple I like based on favorites.
All ready to go, let's hear it brother.
Chad Millman, CEO Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings. So NFC teams against Lamar. I like Gino, don't like him trailing, don't love him on the road, don't think this is the best number. But at five and a half, I can see them winning by a touchdown Again Gino trailing second half. Baltimore. I believe Baltimore and I've said this for three weeks to the best team in the league. I think Lamar's my MVP. It's a big number. I hate it, but it's one of those four or five
numbers I'll roll with. I would take the favorite Ravens my MVP minus five and a half against Seattle Sharper square, Dude.
This is a really brutal week. If you can find consensus on any game, I will cover your entire betting table this week, and this game is the centerpiece of the conversation. There is no reason why anybody should be betting on the Ravens. We've got two top ten defenses, We've got a quarterback in Lamar Jackson who is not good at all as a large favorite more than a field goal. Not good when he is a large favorite at home. We've got a coach in Pete Carroll who's
great as an under dog against the spread. We've got a really good offense, balanced offense in Seattle. And while while Baltimore's defense is great, it's not that great against the run. So there's no reason anybody should be betting on Baltimore this week. And yet, and yet this number went up from five and a half and then went down to six. So what that tells you is that the wise guys came in on Baltimore at five and
a half and they bet Seattle at plus six. So to me, this is a number game, and it's going to be about what number are you seeing? Baltimore five and a half Seattle at six. I will tell you this true story. Sunday night, I'm looking at the lines. I decide I do. The podcast The Favorites was Simon Hunter. We will talk about the lines that we're going to
bet the following week. First game that we discussed was this game, and we were both like, we know Seattle is the right side to this second, I have not bet Seattle. I cannot pull the trigger on it. I haven't at Balton either, but I haven't been Seattle. It's a weird game, dude, it's a weird game.
Let me throw another one at you. Kansas City minus two and a half offul loss, much better quarterback I've seen. I think Kansas City's defense is the best in the Mahomes era. And I've seen Miami against really good competition and really fast, aggressive defenses. They're not the same. Now, the Dolphins got there a week ahead of time. They've got a time advantage. They are closer than Kansas City. But again, three I pass minus two and a half Chiefs, I like case off a loss.
Sharper square.
Another really interesting one, Colin. You know when you and I used to do the Collins Football Show on Sundays on ESPN, and I would get certain games where all of my reporting, all the numbers, nothing would indicate a consensus. Or I would be with you and we'd say, dude, I don't care what people are saying. We'd know football too, this is the right side, and we'd make an executive decision. Yes, we're making an executive decision about the Chiefs. So here's
a really interesting thing. The Chiefs opened as two point favorites, it got that up to two and a half, and then all of a sudden, between Tuesday and today, forty eight hours, the wise guys have been pounding the Dolphins. And it could be because the Chiefs are missing Nick Bolton. It could be because the Dolphins got there earlier and people are skeptical. Are we having a real conversation here? Patrick Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks in the
history of the NFL. Patrick Mahomes a is a favorite of less than three points. Where you're basically saying, Patrick Mahomes go in a football game. You don't You don't think about this. You just met Patrick Mahomes. This is a no brainer.
Okay, I'll give you another one. Okay right now.
Since Week five, Joe Burrow minus two and a half home against the Bills is completing seventy eight and a half percent of his passes. Think about this, It's not a seven on seven drill seventy eight percent take out September start in October. This is arguably the best team and the best quarterback without question. Now he wouldn't be my MVP because what Lamar does sort of the soul. They're running everything and he's got a bunch of new
pieces and it's all working. But again, the numbers come down. Some say it's one and a half, two, two and a half. I'm gonna take Cincinnati. This is also one of those rare spots. I talked about this with Detroit on Monday Night. The Lions never play Monday night football at home, so it's Marty Gras. How many games has Cincinnati hosted that are the national TV game in Cincinnati?
Not many.
This is really special for them, small market Joe Burrow. They want to show off. I like the Bengals minus two and a half Sharper square.
Sharp this game. It's really interesting. This game actually opened. The Bengals is one and a half point underdogs. Immediately the wise guys started coming in on the Bengals Sunday Night. Last Sunday Night, it was at one and a half, then it was two, two and a half. Three wise guys took a little bit of a taste at three. But that's the limit. As you were just saying, sometimes this is about the number, right. Everything you just said about Joe Burrow is true. This is a much better
team since the bye week he's fully healthy. Do not discount the Bengals defense. Trey Hendrickson is grading out as the second best pass rusher in the NFL right now. He's got eight and a half sacks, one and a half behind Danielle Hunter, the league leader in the NFL. And by the way, he's got six and a half of his sacks while the Bengals have won for the past five games, Like this defense is starting to get into a much better rhythm. And they've played together for
a long time. Their defensive cornery has stayed there for a long time. The other side of the ball, and we've talked about this with the Bills, that makes them a scary team to bet on right now. Matt Mulano All Pro linebacker, true Davius White, Pro Bowl level corner to Kwan Jones defensive lineman. Like they have lost guys at every level that are playmakers. Not just like, okay, we got someone who can fill in. They've lost above average players. That's a defense that's struggling right now.
All right, let me give you some underdogs, So that's where I'm prone to go. Let me start with a game that I flipped on today. Vikings plus four and a half at the Falcons, so they're going to Taylor Heineke. I'm a fan of Josh Dobbs, super bright kid. I think Minnesota's left tackle, two top receivers, head coach, tight.
End is a really good group. Jordan Addison is popped.
Yeah, four and a half salt, Dobbs will make plays with his feet. I think Minnesota is one of the smartest teams in the league. Just certainly unlucky early in the season. In recent weeks not as unlucky. I know it's a new quarterback, but I've seen this with interim coaching changes. You see this this energy. I would take the Vikings plus four and a half sharper square.
Yeah, that's the sharp side. It's not like, oh wow, I can't wait to bet the Vikings this week. The number was at five. It's moved down to four and a half. The Heinike thing for the Falcons is interesting because he's the kind of quarterback that professional betters love to bet on when he's an underdog, because he's so the variants on his performance is so high, and he's
will to sling it anywhere anytime. But that's a liability when you're a favorite and making the Falcons this big of a favorite right now, I think undervalues the rest of the Vikings team, as you just said, And so the wise guys are in agreement with you, Colin, and they would take the Vikings.
Here Bears now eight and a half again, all odds provided by DraftKings. The Saints aren't going to score a lot of points. I think they have one of the weaker coaches in the league. I like their personnel, but I think we have to be we have to acknowledge what Derek carr is. Eight and a half is a ton for the record. Montes sweat. Chicago media way too harsh on that move. There will be no second rounders
as good as Montees sweat on the defensive line. You give up a second you don't for Chase Claypool for an elite defensive lineman. You give up a second round pick when you have two firsts, you're going to trade the second one down and get that number second round pick back. I thought Chicago media just there. They've had so much shrap through the years on the Bears, they just immediately say bad move. I had two GMS said there are now Montese sweats in the second round.
That good.
Now forget it, and this coach wants to win now. I think the Bears plus eight and a half is one of the stronger underdog bets. Whatever quarterback plays, they both move. Okay, I would take it Sharper square. Yeah, at eight and a half, it's the play.
It's a really interesting game, and it's one of the wise guys have been a little bit anxious to go all in on. Derek Carr as a favorite is just not very good right one five to one this season as a favorite and as a team, the Saints are not very well coached. I don't think you can go in on what happened last week and say, Okay, the
Saints are back. They're operating as they're supposed to. The flip side is the Bears defense, even with Montes sweat, is not going to be a You're really hoping that the Saints play a ball control game and try not to make mistakes and just try to win the game and don't get a little bit crazy. And they recognize the opportunity they have to play against a defense and against an offense that is not going to be able
to score a lot of points. So I think you're on the right side here because the number has just gotten so big.
Finally, Jets plus three and a half. I don't trust Brandon Staley, and I do think Robert Salad gets the most out of his personnel. The Jets are getting over a field goal, so the hook is obvious. This is a Jets team that's ugly but finds ways to win ugly games and remain viable with an offense that is a water pistol. This comes down to trust. I think sala is the right coach with the wrong quarterback. I think Staley is the wrong coach with the right quarterback.
I'm not laying that hook. I would take the Jets plus three and a half sharper square.
Boom, love it go. Finally, Finally, Colin, you're looking at an ugly game, a home dog getting the hook with a quarterback who probably shouldn't even be considered as a backup on most rosters, and you're playing the right move. It's exactly what you just said. This has been an opportunistic defense. They get up when they're playing the best quarterbacks.
It is a coaching mismatch. It is a game at home for a team that has a lot to play for still, so yes, please thank you for taking the New York Jets at plus three and a half, because I was afraid that was going to be the game that I have to convince you of. And so now if you say, what are you going to convince me of, I'm gonna have to look at my notes and be like, oh my god, he took all the ugliest games, which is impressive.
Okay, so we do this every week. I ask you about a game that I want you to talk me into that I have a feeling for. I like the Houston tech sense I really really do. I like their coach, I like their quarterback, I like their spirit.
CJ.
Stroud's come back down to Earth a little. People have film, but minus two and a half hosting the Bucks who don't have a ton to play for. I think Tampa was a cute story, not a cute team. The reality is Houston still in that wonky division. I think still convinces itself it can be a wild card team and really truly believes it. And frankly, I think the Texans personnel is a little better than people think. They're just young. I would swallow the two and a half here Sharper square.
No, honest to God, it's all over the place. And it's why this number is still a two and a half. If there was a real consensus, this number would have gone down to two or it would have gone up to three. And you can always tell that's the case with a number of two and a half, that it's settled there on Sunday night has not moved. I bet the bucks at plus two and a half. I feel like it's possible. The book is out on CJ. Stroud.
I feel like if you look at you mentioned right off the top, Russell Wilson better quarterback rating right now than Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, more touchdown passes than Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, fewer interceptions than Patrick Mahomes. If you were to do a blind who's the QB with just their stats, CJ.
Shroud and Baker Mayfield, they would generally be the same completion percentage, the same, pretty close QB rating, the same CJ has fewer interceptions but not a ton and then Baker has another touchdown, so you're not getting a huge quarterback advantage here. In the past three games, CJ has definitively come down to Earth after having QB ratings over one hundred in his first three games. So there's not
a huge consensus here. I could see why you're going to take the Texans two and a half less than a field goal at home. Probably a good matchup for them, but it's not one you're going to get consensus. I'm not going to be betting on the Texans, all right.
Give me an ugly one. You know a team I have stayed away from all year?
Oh? I know a lot of them.
Yeah, the Colts, the Patriots. The New England game was interesting to me. So Washington comes off a vaunted rival back down to Earth. New England's only minus three to two and a half. I think New England's the side. So I'm guessing that's the ugly.
Game you're going to talk me into.
How about the Carolina Panthers plus two and a half? So number one? Number one? The Panthers, they were the Colts were. They really struggled defensively. We've seen that, and they've consistently gotten worse as the season has gone on.
The Panthers, meanwhile, made a very specific change, and that was Frank Reich no longer calling the place, and even in a couple of games, even though it was a low scoring game against the Texans, they beat the Texans, right, They beat the Texans in Carolina, where the defense tends to play better. Now Bryce Young is moving the ball more quickly, the pace of the offense is faster. This is not an Indianapolis defense that is equipped to beat a team like the Panthers on the road. They're not
that good. You really want to bet on Gardner Minshew as a road favorite. So the wise guys are back in the Panthers here. It's an ugly game. It's one of the few games on the board where people are looking at it as a professional better and being like, oh, yeah, that's the one I'm taking.
Finally, I stay away from big emotional TV games. I think the numbers right, Philadelphia minus three. I think one of the reasons they played poorly last week they knew they were playing Dallas. So I think they'll win twenty seven to twenty three. Dak's a great home favorite. I think the last three games against Philly he's three and zero two or nonsense. You know, Gardner Minshew one of almost a week seventeen game when Philadelphia emptied the bench
just for our audience. It does feel like the numbers right to me, Yes, is there anything wise?
Guys think exactly. It is split down the middle, no joke. Every single person I've spoken to, they find reasons to like the Eagles, they find reasons to like the Cowboys. I like the Eagles better coach, much better coach. I think they have a better roster. I think they are
more comfortable winning right the Cowboys. Sometimes you watch them play and they seem like a super emotional kid who when things are going well like they are the happiest person in the world, and when things aren't, they don't really know how to manage it. I think Dak is a little bit too boisterous for someone who has really never won anything, and takes some of these things a little bit too sensitively. And I think Jalen is so even keyo and so comfortable whether you're winning or losing.
The challenge is is Jalen hurt? But I do think the Eagles as short favorites. To me, it's almost like the Chiefs. It's going to be hard for me not to take them. If all I need to do is win by a field goal.
They're also a very good big game team, a big situation team, the best team right now on fourth down and third down in the league, which keeps it away from CD and DAK. I think that's a big deal. We agree the best fourth down team with Tush push, they're now the best third down team and big situational, dramatic games. That's an undervalued stat.
Move the chains.
You also got to think about AJ Brown right five straight games, one hundred and twenty five receiving yards or more. The Cowboys secondary it's been playing better, much much better than I think people are giving it credit for, given the fact they've had so many injuries. But AJ Brown is a different kind of player right now. He's a guy who's less than one hundred yards behind Tyreek Hill to lead the league in receiving yardage because of the run that he's on. AJ Brown can make people get
healthy fast. So if Jalen Hursts is injured, throw the ball to AJ Brown and you're going to see how quickly this team in Philadelphia starts to play a little better and starts to feel a little bit better.
All right, buddy, Chad Millman, Action Network CCO. Good seeing him man, good luck to us all.
Colin the volume