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and sixty eight hours after issuance. C Sportsbook dot DraftKings dot com, slash Basketball terms for eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms and responsible gaming resources. All right, welcome in instant reaction. Don't forget. In ten minutes we will have Chad Milman sharp or square, you know, so ironic. We finally get a good game on Thursday Night Football and Joe Burrow gets hurt at the great tight end Mark Andrews, So the Ravens gets hurt, and Lamar Jackson's limping around did
not get hurt. But I mean in both instances, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow got hurt and weren't touched. So I can remember having this discussion years ago with the NFL player Trent Dilfer, and he said, by week four, nobody's healthy. Everybody's banged up. In fact, I had Julian Edelman on my FS one show today, the former Patriot, great twelve year pro three rings, and he's like, come on, everybody's hurt. You just have to have pain tolerance and
get through it. So I will say this, and I listen, the smartest guys in the NFL miss all the time during drafts. And I didn't know what Lamar Jackson was going to be. I really didn't know. I don't think anybody did. That's why virtually everybody passed on him, and the Baltimore Ravens got him at the end of the first round. I mean, as good as Russell Wilson was in his prime, everybody passed on him, including Seattle a couple of times. Everybody passed on Brady five times and
six in many instances. So there's no great valor in saying, you know, well, you were wrong on a quarterback. Everybody's wrong. The best GMS in the history of the league are wrong. But you know, it became very evident, very quickly with Lamar Jackson when he started Week eleven of year one. He was really a unique talent. And I say this all the time, and I would say this. I argued
with Jason McIntyre today about Brock Purty. Every great quarterback in my life there is something that is special, which it Brock pretty There's not he throws a good ball, not a great ball. There's no wow with Lamar Jackson. I don't get the critics. I just I don't. I don't get it when you watch him. He had a couple of plays in the first half. One in the second half it was incomplete. He threw a ball deep into the end zone. It was caught, but out of
the end zone. His escapability, his ability to move to his left or is right and keep his eyes down field, his ability to throw accurately deep when he's running. Lamar Jackson just doesn't play the game like anybody else. And you know, when he first broke into the league, the knock was, well, he doesn't play well from behind. For
the record, almost nobody does. You know, outside of Pat Mahomes, almost nobody has a winning record playing from behind if they've played, you know, at least fifty starts in their career. And now the knock is, well, he can't. He can't keep a lead. So we know he can play from behind. I can't can't hold a lead. He can hold a lead. A lot of that's on the defense. You know, his
turnovers are up this shy, he can be frenetic. He can play a little bit too fast, but just ask yourself Herbert size wow, arm strength wow, Josh Allen Mahomes Burrow's accuracy if your quarterback doesn't have any wow. That was the knock on c. J. Stroud. He's big enough, he was accurate, but it was sort of His comp was Jared Goff, and I had said with Goff and I still say it, there's not a lot of juice with Jared Goff, but he's really good. And that's c J. Stroud.
His it is at his ability to see the field very quickly, recognize and throw the ball accurately. Burrow and c. J. Stroud have the same WOW, and it's the ability to accurately throw a football from forty five yards in with dead eye accuracy that is wow. Drew Brees's wow was accuracy like through a tire from thirty yards, you know, regularly over and over and over. Your WOW doesn't have to be size or speed or arm strength. It can
be just Drew Brees, Joe Burrow, CJ. Stroud accuracy that there's just not that many people can just drop a ball over linebackers in front of safeties twenty eight yards on a dime every time. But Lamar's just jumps off the television set. Like when I watch him, I'm like, yeah, I didn't know how it would work. But if you're still denying it, I don't know what you're watching. The guys won seventy eight percent of his games. This is
the first year he's had good receivers. He's got a good tight end, but he's had running back injuries and O line injuries and Ronnie Stanley, and I think the guy's just incredibly special. As far as Joe Burrow, he's injury prone. Cross your fingers. Listen to the AFC's got good teams. The Chargers are under five hundred. The Bengals are going to be five hundred. I mean, look at Buffalo right now struggling. I mean the teams that are struggling in the NFC are like the Commanders or the
Giants or the Bears and the Packers. Those aren't good football teams. You got the Bills, the Bengal and the Chargers, and depending on what happens with the Jaguars, I mean you got really good teams with four and five losses. In the AFC, it is different, no doubt about it.
I want to talk about Jim Harbaugh. So, Jim Harbaugh has accepted a three game punishment, so he will not be able to be on the sidelines for Maryland, where Michigan is a twenty one point favorite, and he will not be on the sidelines for Ohio State, where that has always been a game that you need everything if you're Michigan or Ohio State to win. But I think what's interesting about it is the reason Jim Harbaugh said, Okay, I'll accept that because it takes care of the Big
Ten punishment. Now it's the NCAA punishment. I do not think it will be that severe. I mean, I'm sure he'll be a loss of scholarships. I don't think it's going to be vacating wins and vacating a potential national championship. We'll see. But I always like when a story has a quick solution, because I can remember years ago when
Kobe and Shaq broke up with the Lakers. I was on team Kobe, and I had said it, and the reason I was on team Kobe is because I'd been told by somebody in the Lakers organization that Kobe was a better practice player, Kobe was more reliable, Kobe was in better shape, Kobe would last longer. Shaq was kind of physically falling apart for the first few years after that though, because Shaq joined you know, pat Riley d Wade and Twine Walker, you know, an all star team
down in Miami and won a title. You know, I had to eat a dirt sandwich, right, Like, even though I knew I was on the right side of the argument that Kobe over time, when he got his next great teammate, Pau Gasol, eventually that Kobe would last longer and have just an incredibly redeemable career. But in the short term, you know, I looked like I didn't know what I was talking about. So I like when I make a prediction, like I always the gratification for a
stand up comic. You tell a joke, people react, and you know instantly if it bombs or it hits you could be a comedy writer. You know, your work doesn't get on screen for four years. So it's almost like I prefer, like, here's a line, here's a prediction. In two days, we'll know if I'm right. So I don't believe that Michigan is beating people because of the sign stealing. I don't think it hurts, But teams generally change signals more than once in a season, especially before big rivalry games.
If you're on a big national TV game, teams know that game's taped. So like let's say you're Ohio State and you play Penn State or Wisconsin camp Randall Saturday night National TV. You know, you know those signals are being gleaned by all the other schools programs all the time change signals, especially after they've been on a big now national TV game, or right before you play a huge rival Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan to Ohio State. So but I don't think that's the reason. I think Michigan
was beating everybody in the conference except Ohio State. And then they got JJ McCarthy. And if you go look at Andrew, look at Stanford and Colin Kaepernick in the NFL and his San Diego job. When Jim gets the quarterback, he goes from beating people to crushing them. It takes him a while to find the right quarterback, because it takes everybody in the NFL a while to find the right quarterback. Loo look at Andy Reid. How many years did he coached before he got Patrick Mahomes right. Belichick
got fired in Cleveland, had Bledsoe in New England. Bledsoe got hurt. Then he got Tom Brady. It's hard to find the right quarterback. Nick Saban at Alabama for years and years it was all about defense. It wasn't until the end, you know, in the last eight years, he's been getting the tuas, you know, like the really high end quarterbacks. For years and years, it was just kind of college quarterbacks. So it took a while at Michigan get the right quarterback. And I think that's why over
the last two years they're thumping people. But will know if they can thump Ohio State and Arbor. Well, we know they're not stealing calls. Now we know they didn't. They weren't using bat signals against Penn State, and they didn't have to throw a pass and dominated the nitty lyons. And if they clobber Maryland, which they are a twenty one point favorite, will know if they dominate and decimated Ohio State, it's not the signs, it's the nineteen NFL
players on the roster, which is what I suspect. Now Buckeye fans thinks it's just the sign stealing and that when you take that away, that you know Michigan is just very ordinary. I do not think that is the case. So my prediction is Michigan wins out until the playoff and that the signce stealing it certainly didn't hurt, and I'm sure there's a player or two over the course of a game that it could help. But I don't
think that's why they beat Ohio State. But I could be very wrong, and we'll find out in a couple of weeks. I like those kind of predictions. Let's get the Chad Milman. November is here. We are in the heart of the football season, hockey and basketball just starting up. Best way to get tickets to any of these games is on game Time, the fastest growing ticket app in the United States. Game Time it's obsessed with finding ways to help you save money on tickets. That's what they do.
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the fastest growing ticket app in the United States. Download the game Time app. Creat an account. The redeem code is Colin. That's me Coli in twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms apply again creating an account. The redeem code cooln twenty dollars off. Download game Time Today, last minute deals, lowest priced tickets guaranteed sharper Square. Chad Millman, CEO Action Network, I actually this week love the lines
and I love dogs everywhere. This week I'm going I'm going value shopping because I've been heavy on the favorites for about a month. It's do me, okay, you ready go.
I'm ready, brother, Let me hear what you're selling.
I don't like the line as much now. But Chicago plus seven and a half at Detroit Lions off a big win. Justin fields is capable of big plays, Detroit gives up a lot of them. Lost in that win is that the Chargers marched up and down the field and then five straight touchdowns at the end, and often very quickly. I would love it. At nine and a half, I thought it was the second best line of the week. But at seven and a half, I would take the bear Sharper square.
Totally sharp. Look, you're still getting more than a touchdown. The line was at ten on Tuesday, went to nine, went to eight and a half, went to eight. Woke up Thursday morning, forty eight hours later, it's at seven and a half. A couple things going on here. One when it was at ten, a load of inflation. And what I mean is the Lions are now a public team.
People want to bet them. People who don't know anything about football want to bet on the Lions the same way they used to want to bet in the Patriots, the same way they used to want to bet on the Packers, the same way they still want to bet on the Cowboys. Right, So there was inflation, and that's why the wise guys came in and took the ten, and took the nine, and took the eight, and now it's down to seven and a half. That's number one.
Number two. Divisional matchups. Divisional matchups favor the road team, They favor the underdog. So when you get that, then diagram you want to bet the road underdog. It's a lot of divisional matchups this week. This is when the wise guys spoted right away.
This I'm gonna throw my theory at you. I like the Vikings plus two and a half at Denver. Denver, you always talk about lucky. That was the luckiest win in the league this year. Twelve man, multiple fumbles, three drop passes. I mean, how many time did the Broncos get a drive starting at the fifty and not give me points? Meanwhile, Buffalo was a bit unlucky. Twelfth man among them. Minnesota, I think a lot of people think, hey, it's a cute story. Well, it's more than that. Josh
Dobbs is effective. He's accurate, justin Jefferson could come back. They have an excellent offensive coach. I like their personal lot two and a half is too much, I think. I think Minnesota is a real team. The Josh job thing. He's more mobile now than Russell. He's accurate. They have better weapons too. I know the numbers telling me to bet Denver. I'm gonna take Minnesota plus two and a half sharper square square.
The wise guys are taking Denver. The public is taking Minnesota. You can see this by what's called the reverse line move. You see all the bets coming in on Minnesota. He yet the line continues to go up. It's gone from one to one and a half before the Buffalo game, is at one and a half. After the game, it only went up to two. Because bookmakers are trying to figure out which way is the public and which way
the wise guy's going to go. With two teams that are winning in surprising ways, the public came in on Minnesota, the wise guys came in on Denver. So what you're saying about Josh Jobs is totally accurate. But let's look at what Denver has done. Denver has won three games in a row. After that devastating loss to the Chiefs on a Thursday night, Russell Wilson had fewer than one
hundred yards passing, He had two picks. That was following up a week in which they lost to the Jets, in which the game was clinched by Russell Wilson scrambling and then forcing his own fumble by knocking the ball out of his hand with his own leg, and the Jets pick it up and run it back for a touchdown. Since then, they've completely retooled, not just this defense, which has been considerably better, but Russell Wilson in this offense. They get him into a position to make a decision faster.
They were snapping the ball with ten seconds or less too often. Now they're not doing that. Even saw it last week against the Bills. They weren't game changing plays, except they were plays that didn't cause Denver to lose yardage and lose momentum. It was a simple pass under the first quarter. Russell Wilson second and one, looks down the field instead of scrambling, instead of trying to find someone deep, he just stumps it off right first down.
Very next play, pass rush is coming up both sides. The middle of the field opens, Russell Wilson doesn't hesitate, sprints for ten yards. Russell Wilson has eighteen touchdown passes, second in the league behind Tua. Four interceptions, second fewest, seventh best rated passer against the rush according to PFF. They're a better team right now. I'm gonna tecres bet all right.
I'm gonna take Seattle minus one at the Rams. I don't think the Rams are rebuilding roster can sweep the Seahawks this year. I don't care McVeigh, Pete Carroll. I just don't think the Rams are very good. I think their best players are all past their prime, and I think Seattle's a good team. They got a little unlucky not covering against the Commanders because two of their dbs collided, but they came back. Gino had a great drive. I just think Seattle's a better team. They travel pretty well.
Home crowd means absolutely nothing. Stafford's going to play, not one hundred percent. I would take Seattle minus one to win the game. I think there's no way the Rams can sweep this team.
Sharper Square wise, guys like the Rams. Seattle's wins have not been impressive. Giants, Panther, Cardinals, Washington on a miracle. Gino's been good, but not as good as last year. I think people don't believe the Seahawks defense is as good as it's rated. They think it might be a little fraudulent because of who they played. Look at that first game the Rams out gaining by four, it was four twenty six to one eighty. They double them up in first down twenty seven to thirteen. That was without
Cooper Cup. So if you look at the strength of schedule adjusted the Rams have played, it's better the Rams have a better QB. The line is sort of settled at one, but it's moving in the Rams direction because the wise guys are moving it there.
I like the Cardinals plus four and a half at the Texans. Texans off maybe their biggest win in several years. I think Arizona again, this feels like a close game to me. I'm a huge fan of Kyler Murray. I don't trust young teams off big wins. I think they pull back a little. I think because it was Joe Burrell. Remember Cincinnati drops a touchdown pass and the end zoner. Cincinnati probably wins. Texans are still a rebuilding roster like Arizona.
I would take the four and a half with Arizona sharper square totally split.
This line opened at five and a half for Arizona, was plus five and a half, got bet down to five, got bet down to four and a half, got bet down to four. All wise guy money. Then at the four wise guys on the other side started coming back and betting up on Houston. It's because nobody really can find how they feel about CJ. Stroud. He's a little bit of a code breaker, right. Everything you believe about
what you have done historically with betting, CJ. Stroud is breaking those rules coming back two weeks in a row. The way he's come back, his odds for MVP have dropped from two hundred to one to twenty to one. The last time a rookie one MVP Jim Brown nineteen fifty seven. So there's a lot of sentiment that maybe CJ. Stroud is one of those guys who breaks all the trends, and he's been much better at home. So it's Byron Bware on this one. You're getting both sides.
Okay, there's a line and it happens maybe twice a year that I do not get. And my instinct is Vegas knows something I don't, and this is the first one this year. The Bills minus seven against the Jets seems outrageous. Vegas knows. I'm taking Buffalo minus seven. That line makes no sense. The Jets are an awful, awful third down team. They can't move the chains. Buffalo is incredibly unlucky between drops and penalties. Against Denver, they were the better team. This line I thought, I guess lines
before they come out. I'm like three. I'm like seven Buffalo fires a coach in spot. I heard everybody's backs against the wall. The country's bailed on them, the cities on their ass. I'm taking Buffalo minus seven here sharper square.
So in the same way that CJ. Stroud might be a bit of a cheat code, Zach Wilson is the opposite in every way. Wise guys want to take the Jets in this spot, a much much better defense, a team in the Bills that is fading. They are now not even They're not even in plus money to make their minus money to make the playoffs. They're not favorites to make the playoffs anymore. They're in real struggle spot.
Except nobody wants to back Zach Wilson. They just can't find it within themselves to back this quarterback at this number, no matter how big it is. Meanwhile, Josh Allen historically in this spot at home, when Josh Allen wins, he covers that isn't the story this year, right, It's been a lot more of a struggle. There's zero consensus on this colin Like, you're not going to find any wise guy who's like, oh my god, I love Josh Allen at minus seven. There are games where they do like
big favorites. This week, you're on your own on this one. There's nobody who's like, yeah, I got it, there's value on this one. Don't forget whise. Guys like to bet where they think they have an edge. They do not have an on the field edge against this number.
It makes sense to take the Titans plus six and a half against the Jaguars divisional game of Vrabel's a great underdog coach. It felt like one of the obvious ones. I think Jacksonville wins. I would rather bet the team that I think wins. But you can run on the Jaguars. The Titans will. They're very physical. I also think the Jags are a bit beat up after that loss, a bit shocked. I would take the Titans plus six and a half. Feels like that Cleveland. It feels like kind
of that Cleveland Baltimore game last week. Just go to the divisional rival in a point sharper square.
Totally sure. That's that Mike Rabel most profitable coach against the spread the past twenty years. He wins outright as an underdog more than any other coach in the past twenty years. Plus the stats right road teams since twenty fifteen in the division covering it a fifty three percent clip road dogs covering it a fifty five percent clip Wise guys will be on the Titans.
Finally, Eagles plus three at the Chiefs. Jalen Hurts has beaten twelve straight winning teams. This is weird. I never do this. I think Philly blows them out. I think Philly blows out Kansas City. I think it's one of those games that makes for great sports talk radio on Tuesday. I'm going to take Philly like thirty three twenty six, thirty three twenty three physically pushes him around Sharper square.
Dude, this is the scariest game on the board. I have bet the Eagles my first instinct on this game. Me and Simon Hunter, both professional bet Simon Hunter the coast in my podcast with me, we looked at this game and we're like, the Eagles are the better team, right, Like, every single way you look at it, they are the better team, and we bet the Eagles. We've heard some wise guys coming in on the Eagles. But what's scary
is Patrick Mahomes, This isn't hyperbole. Virtually unbeatable in November December, virtually unbeatable as a favorite of three or less. Andy Reid great off the buy like we're talking about we're talking about bucking incredibly strong historical trends. You and I can make an executive decision on this. I'm with you. I think the Eagles are going to cover, but we're not gonna find a ton of support from the betting community that is consensus on this. There are games where
we're gonna get consensus. They say one of them.
Okay, give me as you know. There's a game I thought about I want you to talk me into and then pull one or two out that I didn't think of. So the number was smaller earlier. But I think Miami could destroy the Raiders. I think it could be absolutely one of the ugly games of the year. Last week I took Dallas over the Giants. I felt great about it. That thing was over in eight minutes. I think Miami's going to win by three touchdowns over the Raiders. The
numbers now like minus thirteen and a half. I would take the huge favorite Sharper square.
One hundred percent that's that's the play. The reason this number's gone from eleven and a half to twelve, to twelve and a half to thirteen to thirteen and a half in the past forty eight hours. Weis guys are piling on. They're not looking at the Raiders going too and zero with Antonio Pearson eight in O'Connell and thinking, oh, yeah, they got a shot. When the Dolphins played bad teams, they blow them out. When they play good teams, they lose.
That's just their m right now. Maybe one day they'll get better. Maybe one day they'll be competitive with more higher caliber teams, but they blow out bad teams. Look at that Carolina again, remember it at Carolina was up by fourteen. You're like, oh my god, they got a shot. Before halftime it was thirty five fourteen.
All right, give me a game that I have missed. Chad Milman, CEO Action Network all ONNS provided by Draft Kings, usually a dumpster dive. By the way, the last four weeks, the game I have not picked that's been my sixth pick in Blazing five is four to zero. So of course, yeah, of course in Denver, Minnesota is that game for me this week? I may pass. Okay, give me a game that I haven't thought about.
Let me ask something. When you're watching those games that you decided not to go with, Oh yeah, are you rooting against decide you would have bet just so you can feel better, Because that's what I did.
No, I root for the side because I do want to say on the air, hey, I'm an idiot, But that was because I always say on Friday, here's the game that didn't make the cut, have three and oh on these last week it was Arizona, so I twice it was the Jets, and I should have bet them and I didn't. So you know, it's just one of those things where I had a push last week on Detroit. I told you on this podcast, I told you Detroit minus one was the I thought the best beat of
the week. Minus three. It's a pust. I have five pushes this year, so above five hundred and five pushes. But there's there's got to be a game I've missed here.
Well, this is why you're a genius, by the way, because I'm rooting against the team that I would have bet on because I don't want to feel bad, and you're thinking it's all content it's all content, baby, that's it. I'm gonna go on after the games are over, i can make a video for the volume YouTube page, and I'm just going to talk about how sad it would have been speaking of Carolina.
You know it does Just do it.
Don't even give me your excuses. Be my betting buddy and do it.
Put it in the Carolina plus ten and a half.
Yeah, it's a game. The wise guys love it this week, love it. Just do it. Do it.
Dallas is on the road off a ridiculous win. Frank Wright needs to be competitive like he's getting major heat. Is that the argument?
The argument is that Dallas is so overinflated and this is a prime trap game. They just had a cake walk that everyone is believing that they are the best offense in the NFL, that Dak Prescott to see Dee Lamb cannot be stopped. Now they're going to Carolina. Carolina's defense,
they got some playmakers. They play better at home. When when Bryce Young last week, like against the Bears, it wasn't pretty, but he can find a way if if they get a couple of breaks, and ten and a half is a lot, it's a lot for a team to cover when they are on the road coming off the win that they just came off of. So I actually took a little bit of taste of care line on the money line.
All right, Melman, that's pretty good. Good to see you're back from doucial door for wherever you were at, it was very listen.
It was Copenhagen. You love Copenhagen. You want to move there, Hagen copin. Thank you for correcting me. Yeah, you know what you got content, you got class.
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