Colin Cowherd Podcast - Niners/Seahawks TNF, Purdy Good, Week 15 Sharp or Square

beat the Seahawks on Thursday Night a football. It looks a lot like all these forty nine wins this year. Right, an unblockable defensive line, take a lead somewhere first half, and then kind of grind it out. Christian McCaffrey carries eat the clock. So let's talk a little about brock Purty. The offense is pretty much the same with the exception they can move the pocket more because of brock Purtty's feet. You know, if you look at San Francisco, half the

league is undrafted. So just take the Niners as you look at brock Purtty being the final player taken in the seventh round. Well, two of his targets. George Kittle was drafted in the fifth round out of Iowa. George Kittle was a late bloomer. Do you realize he only had forty eight catches total at Iowa. He didn't have eight hundred yards receiving at Iowa, a program that puts out a lot of talented tight ends. Juwan Jennings a wide receiver for the Niners. He was a seventh round pick.

So you know, there's so many good skill players now, so many guys can catch the ball run. The NFL is furnished about twenty five good receivers a year out of college football, so it's not shocking. Again. Ryan Fitzpatrick was a seventh round quarterback and through for thirty five thousand yards and is now on the Amazon broadcast. And it's interesting if you look at Brock Purty, So he went to high school in Arizona. He ended up being the Gatorade Player of the Year in the state of Arizona.

So you know, if you're a Gatorade Player of the Year in the state I grew up in Washington State, you know you usually end up going and starting and being a star at college and oftentimes brock Hewarge prime example, you go play in the NFL. He was in Pulup High School. He's now at Fox, former Husky and Colt quarterback. So Brock Purty was the Gatorade Player of the Year. That's his final year in Arizona. But he started as a soft moore in high school in a really tough division.

And then he goes to Iowa State and he ends up playing seven or eight games as a freshman. And here he is as a rookie playing So what do we get high school college on pro Brock Purtty is a guy that steps right in with a lot of confidence, self awareness. He obviously is a bright kid. He learns to play book quickly. So you know, he starts as a sophomore in high school, of freshman in college and

now a rookie in the NFL. And remember they were very comfortable when Trey Lance got hurt and they moved Garoppolo in. They were very comfortable brock Purtty being the number two. There was no doubt about it. He'd played in the preseason. They liked him. So it's just I think sometimes you look at the final round, the seventh round in the NFL and there's players everywhere in this league. So why didn't you know Brock Purtty get drafted higher. He's not huge, He's about six one two fifteen six

one six one and a half. That's on the small side for a pocket quarterback. Also played in the Big Twelve, where a lot of quarterbacks have failed, and you know, you get run and shoot scores, you get you know, fifty four forty five in the conference. So there's a lot of offense, and therefore in the NFL there's a little bit. You know, before Patrick Mahomes and that run of Heisman winners at Oklahoma, there was a real feel, you know, Big twelve football quarterbacks were you know, busts,

high scoring, no defense in the conference. Sage Rosenfeld's is a former NFL quarterback who played at Iowa State. You know, Brock Purty was a really, really, really strong college quarterback. I mean, think about this. He was All Big Twelve in that wild conference where there's a lot of points. He was All Big Twelve twice, and then he was

second team All Big Twelve as a sophomore. So this is a hot The Gatorade Player of the Year in Arizona two times, actually a three time first or second team All Conference college guy who Alabama had in for a visit. It's a really talented guy, but you know, a little on the small side, and also he can

be a little streaky. I went and looked at his scouting profile from Lance Zerline, a guy I respect whose dad was a coach in the NFL for years and he's a sportscaster in Houston and does some stuff for I think the NFL network. You know, that was the knock on brock Purty. He could be a little bit streaky, he can get out of rhythm, a little squirrely, but high completion percentage. I just I'm not shocked by it. When I watched them in the preseason, I thought it's

pretty good. I'll say it again. He's Taylor Heineke, but more accurate, and Taylor Heineke is winning games for the Washington Commanders. We also have a culture now where there's just more quarterbacks who can play high school college in pro. You know, this is not nineteen ninety eight, it's not two thousand and eight. The game now is absolutely offensive. If you can go to a high school football game

where I live in Southern California. You've got teams thrown at forty five times a game right in these big leagues. So good for brock Purty. And I think the Niners feel like, to me, maybe the only other team in the NFC very capable of going to Philadelphia and playing the Eagles and sitting in the center of the ring and exchanging blows. I think they're that good. And I think they're basically more athletic than they were with Jimmy Garoppolo.

Let's talk about the Seahawks regression to the beam. You know, whenever I get too hot with my blazing five picks, I'll eventually go one for four. I think Geno Smith Seattle has two first round picks, they have Denvers, so right now it's the second or the third pick. I think it's the third. You're gonna take a quarterback. Bryce Young is probably not available. Houston with a number one pick will probably take Bryce Young. So you can take CJ. Strout out of Ohio state. I don't know. I've seen

them lose twice to Michigan. I don't know, or will leave us from Kentucky who got a real arm. Sean Payton told me of all the quarterbacks. He thought he was really really interesting will leave us. So you know, his college stats don't blow you away, but kid that can really spin it. And you know, Seattle's got a few other needs, interior defensive line, interior offensive line. I still think they need another receiver, another back behind Kenneth Walker,

a few more bigs on the defensive front. But Geno Smith is as we've talked about Tua, there was no real history as a guy who's a bust and then goes on to be a Pro Bowl quarterback. That kind of stuff just doesn't happen in the NFL. And so now we're post Thanksgiving, whether it's colder, guys get banged up, people have more film, and you're kind of getting on Geno Smith. What you think. He's a big guy who can He's got a good arm, he really does. He

has a really really nice arm. You can certainly win games with them. But when we all know, when you start looking at Vegas odds, who's going to win the Super Bowl, it's the same thing with Tua. Now it gets cold, now it gets windy. Now you don't have all your receivers. Now your left tackle is out. That's when Joe Burrow wins and Mahomes wins, and Herbert wins and Tuah and Gino Smith. You know, things level out. The one thing I will say about Seattle is that,

you know Pete Carroll. I often refer to him as you know, like he's a seventy year old head coach. His energy is like nothing I've ever seen. I don't know really how to explain Pete Carroll. He wears that gum out. He's got a lot of power in that organization. I don't see him going anywhere. And I think Seattle is going to be too good for the next several years. Too competitive. They're not going to get in the top

five at quarterback again. So even if they need interior defensive lineman, this draft has a lot in the top ten, top twelve, they're gonna have to take a quarterback. They're not going to be in that top two three spot again. And so my guess it's gonna be Will Levis or C. J. Stroud for Seattle. I would take Levis from Kentucky San Francisco if Brock Purty hoists the Lombardi Trophy. I know it sounds ridiculous, but doesn't this kind of sound ridiculous.

Think about this. Jalen Hurts, who basically had to leave Alabama because the greatest college football coach of all time,

Nick Saban, said yeah, it's not working. Here goes to Oklahoma second in the Heisman, second round pick for Philadelphia, they've already got, you know, like Carson Wentz, and all of a sudden, not long after that, Jalen Hurts, who had to transfer in college, who we thought was a runner over a thrower, is starting for the Eagles, gets them to the playoffs in year two, and then a year three is up for MVP. That sounds totally improbable. So that's who Brock pretty could eventually be playing in

the NFC Championship in Philadelphia. And I think it's a go either way game. It'll probably be a low scoring, highly physical wild game. Deebo Samuel back by that time. You know that's a twenty seventeen game either way, don't count it out. Let's welcome in Chad Millman's CCEO Action Network. All of our odds provided by a fan duel. So it's a weird week. I've shifted some bets. I don't like favorites much, but I'm gonna start with two because

I don't like him. Monday night football. Everybody loves Baker Mayfield. Packers get a little extra rest minus six and a half. It's a much better team. Let's not kid ourselves. The Rams aren't good. This feels like Packers buy a touchdown a sharper square. I gotta tell you this one is really interesting. Not a ton of activity on this game. In conversation. From a sharp perspective, I think you're on

the right side at less than a touchdown. There's too much enthusiasm from the market when you are looking at a Baker Mayfield quarterback team. This is not a guy who wins games, right. We've seen that over and over again. I think with the Packers, obviously there's a lot of trepidation here. But like the numbers on this one, the Rams getting the majority of the tickets, and that's why you've seen it come down a little bit. The money's

heading in the Packers direction. So if you can get him at six and a half, I would take it. Here's another one. I bet against the Jaguars earlier this year off a big win. They're a young team. They come home, they see the Cowboys in their sights off one of their best games in a decade. Dallas humiliated bult one against Houston. Cowboys are getting healthier. It's one of those middle numbers, like a five. In that case, I just think Dallas is a significantly better team. Sharper square.

I'm taking the Cowboys. Oh my god, you're living in the middle of the square, Like you don't even have any sort of room to wiggle on this one. Trevor Lawrence past nine weeks, past six weeks, top two quarterback in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus, ten touchdowns, zero picks, all these releases and issues he had in the red zone, thrown passes that were too flat, didn't have any touch not building chemistry with Doug Peterson. They've been a very good team in the past few weeks.

We've seen that they we've seen them getting better. I'm not fazed by sort of the blowout of the Titans on the road, especially against the Cowboys pass rush. That is the strength of their defense, but it's also the strength of the Jags offensive line. They are fifth in protecting Trevor Lawrence against the pass rush in the NFL. And the other thing I'll say is that the Cowboys secondary. They are injured and that's one of the reasons why

they struggled against the Texans. So Trevor Lawrence, who is becoming a better quarterback, is going to have a good opportunity to light them up. Most professional betters have this game power rated to three west In these days, every new potential hire can feel like a high stakes wager for your small business. Right the margins have never been tighter. You want to be one hundred percent certain you have

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Tennessee visits one eight hundred gamble dot in West Virginia. All right, let's go to the underdogs, Titans getting three at the Chargers. Tennessee off a humiliating loss. Yes they're banged up, but again, let's not go crazy with the Chargers. Their defense set the tone against Miami. Titans. Have the better defense, the better coach, the better run game consistently can stop the run. I like Tennessee in the point

sharper square total number game very sharp. If this gets to two and a half, you're going to see people come in on the Chargers. Right now at three, majority of the money coming in on the Titans. The Chargers are not a team that anybody wants to play when their favorites. They are great as an under dog because their variants plays to wide sort of disparities and what you can expect, and they do things that allow you as a better on an underdog Charger team to stay

in the game. Meanwhile, as favorites, they're just not very good. The Titans, however, as underdogs with Mike Rabel, are very good. You've got a coaching advantage with the Titans, You've got them in a spot that favors them, and then with the Chargers you kind of don't know what you're getting yet. Defensively, Joey Bose is supposed to come back, but this has been a team that is at a hard time as a defense, so it's very hard to bet on them

as a favorite. Patriots Raiders I like New England comfortably. I think although Belichick's former coaches do okay against him, this sort of ball control offense by New England on display against Arizona. Uh. I still think the Raiders are a team that plays really hard, but there are some holes they can't overcome, and Belichick this is what he does. If you've got holes he'll find them. I think it's a boring, quick game with a lot of run involved.

I'm talking eighty carries. But if it's a pick him or close, which is where the numbers at Raiders minus one, I take the Patriots the win here sharper square as square as square gets. The wise guys love the Raiders in this spot. The Patriots have terrible skill players on offense as it is, and now the players that they were depending on are injured Damian Harris, Ramondre Stevenson, Devant Day Parker. We don't know what we're getting in that group.

The wise guys make the Raiders two point favorites. So when this game opened at Raiders plus one and a half, the wise guys started hammering it. It's why the line has moved in the direction that it has. It's a team that, as you noted, still plays hard. They are probably getting Hunter Renfro and Darren wallerback. Both of them practiced this week. They can still make the playoffs. They're in every game the Raiders at home, they basically pick

a very short favorite. By the time the game kicks off, that's gonna be the wise guy said, Giants getting four and a half against the Commanders. I had Taylor Heinekey on my show today, but if you look at his numbers, they're underwhelming. This is a Washington team that has more talent than New York four and a half. It's a ton of points. Daniel Jones playing for his career, I'm gonna go with the points. Giants Division rival Sharper Square.

Interesting game. The sharp side is definitely the Giants. There's no reason the Commanders should be four and a half point favorites. They just played two weeks ago, while the Commanders are on the by the Giants in that game, even though it's a tie game, terribly ugly game. The Giants were ahead by a touchdown for most of the second half and they missed a game winning field goal. So now there's automatically inflation when a team like the

Giants is coming off of a blowout loss. Right, So that's why the number drifted up to four and a half. Nobody saw the Commanders play terribly last week. They didn't play. Meanwhile, team's coming off a blowout the past twenty years, So the Giants in this spot, they're covering at a fifty five percent clip. This is Washington's biggest spread of the season against a team that was beating them two weeks ago. It's the sharp side, But I will tell you I've had a couple guys say to me they love the

Commanders that are professional betters. We talked about this on the favorite Pot today. I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just saying it's not always a consensus. So be wary. Bears plus nine extra rest Philadelphia coming off a dominating win. I always pull back. The world likes right now the Eagles. I think they're in a position they could rest. Players getting healthy, Chicago again, people playing for their jobs, people

putting stuff on tape, young offensive line. I like the Bears on the point here to keep it reasonably close, sharper square to lead sharp and remember we talked about this two weeks ago. The Rams eight and a half point underdogs against Seattle. Last week the Broncos nine point underdogs. The Broncos nine point underdogs against the Chiefs. Same similar scenario here the Bears plus nine against a high flying

Eagles team. Huge amount of money on the Bears. This is exactly the side that the professionals want to be on. A reminder, and I said this last week because it's still relevant, even more relevant when you get teams winning at a sixty five percent clip over the course of the year playing against really bad teams like the Bears. And that's the delta we're talking about between the Eagles and the Bears. This week, the Dogs are covering in nearly sixty percent. So that's what happens when you get

late in the year. You get inflation on these teams that are really good. All right, we always close with a game I could be talked into. I think Buffalo and bad weather could destroy the Dolphins. What say you, Sharper Square, tell me the side. I agree with you. The number has moved to seven. But there's not a ton of wise guy activity on this game because people are waiting to see how bad the weather really is.

And I'll be honest with you, the side they're probably going to play in this game is the over in totals, not necessarily taking the Bills minus seven. I think they like the Bills because the Bills, when they do win, they tend to cover big. And I think, and we talked about this a few weeks ago, if you were

going to fade any team down the stretch. It was going to be Miami who three weeks ago they had come off six straight really easy games at home or indoors, and they were heading into the end of the year where they were going to be on the road in really tough spots, including this game. So wise guys probably will bet the Bills minus seven, but they love the over in this game because the snow tends to play to the offensive strength. Finally, a game I missed, Colts Vikings.

How do we not talk about Colts Vikings? Oh God, come on, come on. This is a great bounce back spot for the Colts. They when they've gotten killed this year, as they did two weeks ago, they've come back in one. Minnesota's defense is terrible, forced two punts against the Lions. The week before, they gave up nearly five hundred yards to the Jets. The Colts are actually outgaining their opponents.

Minnesota is getting outgained by its opponents in our luck rankings that we do on Action Network dot Com, which basically are the best way to measure expected regression. So a team that is playing way outside of itself and is expected to come back down to earth, a team playing a little bit below expectations. Shouldn't be playing better. There's the biggest delta of the week in this game. Take the Colts. Every wise guy has taken the Colts.

All right, you're talking me into it. That's a good point, all right, buddy, good stuff. Appreciate it. I'm here for you. The Volume. Make sure to check out The Draymond Green Show. I brought Draymond Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports. Unique perspective understands behind the rope. Also chops up with guests like Gary Peyton,

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