The volume College football fans, I'm getting chills. The championship games are here. Draft Kings sports Book is making sure it's easy for you to throw down some cash on this epic battle big Bucks. So new customers score one hundred and fifty dollars instantly in bonus bets by just betting five dollars on the championship game. Now the code download the app takes under two minutes. Download the Draftking Sportsbook app very easy. Put in the code Colin Cli.
These games are so much fun. You can bet ten, five, twenty, it doesn't matter. It's so much fun. Download the Draft King Sportsbook app. The code is Colin coli in. New customers one hundred and fifty bucks instantly by betting just five bucks on the championship game only on Draft Kings Sportsbook. Our partner at the volume We love Them code is Colin co l i n. The crown is Yours gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or visit www dot
one eight hundred gambler dot net. In New York, call eight seven seven eight hope and why, or text hope and y for six seven three sixty nine. In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling called eighty eight seventy eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill Casino and Resort KS licensee partner Golden Nugget Lake Charles twenty one plus. Age varies by jurisdiction Voyden, Ontario. Bonus bets expire one
hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. Se Sportsbook dot DraftKings dot com, slash Basketball Terms for Eligibility and deposit restrictions, Terms and Responsible Gaming Resources. Hi, everybody, and welcome into our Friday morning podcast. So you know, in my career, I've always thought I'm not against sportscasters who are like homers. Like a lot of local TV and radio people are big homers. You know, if you listen to WFA and in New York, you know they're all wearing their jet
hoodies and they're doing their thing. That didn't bother me at all. But I've never that's never been my thing. I always feel like I'm the judge. You're the jury and the two teams, or the prosecuting attorney, the DA, and my job is to just give sort of a unemotional opinion on stuff, and I think I built my career on trying not to be a Homer. It's hard with Washington because when I was a kid, it was the first team I loved. It wasn't the Seahawks, it
wasn't the Mariners. The first team I loved was the Washington Huskies. And I can remember the radio being on on Saturday afternoons, and they had a running back named Robin Earl. He wore number ninety nine, and they had these just very purple gold, kind of generic uniforms, and I just loved college football. And I don't know why, but I love the Huskies. And then Don James takes them over in the seventies and Warren Moon and Spider Gaines and Michael Jackson the linebacker. It's the first team
I loved. And whatever you love at nine ten years old is what you love for life, right, And it's the one team, not USC not the Patriots, not Brady. The one team I really have an emotional attachment to is Washington. So I've always kind of pushed back on that. You know, I don't want to be a Homer. I don't think they match up with Michigan terribly well, and my guess is that Michigan wins. My guess would be like thirty to twenty three. You know, if I had to bet my four oh one k, I would actually
take Michigan here. And the reasons being is that I think Kaylin de Boor is really a prep monster. I think he's one of those rare coaches like an Andy Reid that is almost unbeatable when he has extra time, and now they don't. And so when you've got a month to prepare for Texas, you can bring in things that you just don't have time to put in over the course of five days or four days of practice.
But once you get to the championship game, both teams equally rested and it's short, it's just your regular college football week. I think Michigan's just got better players. Washington is heavily penalized, Michigan is rarely penalized. Washington's got some age, but a lot of underclassmen. And Michigan's old O line for Washington, some say is the best in the country. If it's not. Michigan's is d line huge edge. Michigan both great coaches, but I just feel like Michigan feels
like a national champion. They have seven blowouts, you know, and Washington feels like a really good football team that is brilliantly coached and quarterbacked. I do think personnel wise, I don't you know, Washington's wide receivers are better than Michigan's. That's not terribly close, and Penix is better than JJ. McCarthy is a collegian. But I think Michigan would have the majority of the starters in the game, and I think on regular week of practice, neutral field, you'll see
Michigan flex. It'll be a good game. Washington certainly good enough and potent enough to win backdoor cover or back door win with a couple of late aerial touchdowns. But you don't get any cheapies over the top against Michigan. I said, I thought Washington it was a great matchup against Texas because the Longhorns, frankly had a not very good in the back end, and that's Washington strain. But you know, one of the things about Michigan is that, and I talked about this on FS one. Whatever makes
you sleep better at night, go ahead. But the Patriots and Brady were better after Spygate, and they were better after the flake Gate. Brady's numbers went up after the flate gate. The Colts were bitter because New England was dominating the series, and so they turned the Patriots in for deflate Gate. Brady's numbers went up once there was no extra additive air to the mall or less air in the ball. Connor Stallions, it was at most one
percent for Michigan they've played. If they beat Washington in their favor, to beat Washington, they will have beaten Washington, Alabama, and Ohio State in order with no quote cheating. This team is about hardball, their O line, D line, their lack of penalties, their NFL bodies, their upper classmen. They're discipline and intelligence. Whatever makes you sleep better at night. Spygate, the flightgate, Connor Stallions, but now we know they're not
quote cheating. If they beat Washington, when's the last time Washington lost a football game. They've beaten Oregon twice and Texas twice in those four games. The last time they've played Texas twice two Bowl games, beat them both Texas Texas who hammered Alabama, overwhelmed them in Tuscaloosa, physically pushed them around. So they're gonna have beaten Washington, Ohio States a juggernaut, and Alabama without the Connor Stallion's advantage. This
team is about so many things. If you think it's cheating signals, there's no reason. Like I said before, I'm not gonna argue uncertain things like the vaccines absolutely saved millions of lives, especially for older people. They weren't needed for kids. I'm not a fan of mandate. They saved a lot of lives. I know six or seven people that didn't get them. They were stubborn or they don't like needles. They got sick as hell, My family, me friends, lots of it. We took the vaccines. We had COVID
boom two days. Fine, right, So I'm just not gonna argue with you. You go ahead and live in your conspiracy theory. I don't care. And you can go ahead and convince yourself that you know, Connor Stallions is the reason they won. Yeah, I'm gonna go with no. They're gonna give Washington's offense problems, and virtually nobody gives Washington's
offense problems. And you're gonna watch mondy night and go yeez, Washington's facial little pressure Washington seems to be off, and you're going to look up and realize this has never been about an iPhone's shaky video and hand signals. This Michigan team is one great college receiver away from being an Alzheimer. This is a really good football team. Let's talk Chad Millman, Sharper Square, shall we all?
Right?
Time for Sharper Square, Chad Millman, CCO, The Action Network, All odds provided by DraftKings. I'm not prone to brag, but I am on a little bit of a heater.
I don't talk about it, don't say it. You're gonna turn yourself into a cooler man, I know.
So listen, there's only two games all year that have made me bitter and losing. I lost a doint in the Saints game because they hit the crossbar and a kick. And that Colts Raiders game you told me to stay away. I still contend this morning. The Colts was aside. Whatever whatever.
You know what though, here's the good news. Here's the good news. You and I were texting and I was begging you to bet the Cardinals, to be my betting buddy, and you did. I did, and it felt good, right.
It felt great? But I you know what's funny, I really I Greg co Sell comes on my show and I told Greg today, I said, Greg, I watch him play, and I'm like, there's not three of him on the planet. I like Kyler Murray. I don't care about his video games. I watch him. I'm like, I wouldn't want to tackle him. He's just great. He's just like if you were in a school yard and you're like, who's the guy that nobody can tackle, you'd be like that guy him and Lamar like I just like him. So all right, let's
start with this because it's a weird week. It's a bad week. You don't have starters. Who really cares? One of the things a sports gambler told me years ago, he loved betting March Madness. He goes because everybody's in. There's no like, oh, you know, it's a long road trip, like the NBA goes NBA. You've got to pick your spots. March Madness. All games are true. This is the most
untrue week of the NFL season, Like, who cares? So I would take the Texans minus one and a half against the Colts because basically, you're saying to yourself, who do you trust?
Yes.
I think CJ. Stroud is better than we think, and I think we all think he's good. I'm gonna take the Texans. I I think CJ. Stroud I watch him play. I love his I love his setup, I love his arm strength, I love his accuracy. I think he's sensational. Yeah, I had no idea his comp was Jared Goff. I didn't know he would be slightly better than Jared his first year. I thought comp is like he'll become. I'm like, he's Jared Goff with more of a power arm that
moves better. So I like the Texans. Here Sharper Square.
Well, look, we discussed this exact game today and for those who are listening for the first time on my podcast, The Favorites, we will do this segment where we do something called Sharp Calls, and we get calls me and my co host Simon Hunter. We'll get calls from professional betters throughout the week who listen to our show on Tuesday and then on Thursday. By Thursday, they've got opinions and they will call us over the forty eight hours
between Tuesday and Thursday and give us their opinions. This game was completely so the Texans opened as one and a half point underdogs in this game Sunday night. I will tell you right now, it was the first game that I bet the Texans plus one and a half. The wise guys bet at two. They bettered at one, then they better at pick, then they better at Texans minus one. Now it's minus one and a half. So you're I agree that Texans are still the right side. I think CJ.
Strouder last week, I told you I think they're gonna clobber the Titans. They're a better team.
One hundred percent right, they are a better team. Gardner Minshew plays with fire every week. He has the fourth most turnover worthy throws of anybody in the NFL, behind Josh Jobbs, Desmond Ritter, Daniel Jones. Okay, Shane Steiken just keeps him out of trouble. But when Gardner Minshew has to come back or potentially is in trouble, that's when there's trouble, right, And so you're kind of betting on CJ.
Stroud to be better than Gardner Minshew in a price game where every possession is going to matter on the field, that's what you're doing. Totally sharp here's why the wise guys might not be on your side. And this is why this game was split and such a good debate today. When you start betting on a team that goes from being an underdog to being a favorite, historically, the percentages
work against you in terms of covering. So that's why wise guys, when it's at one and a half Texans minus one and a half, they start to walk away and start to think about the cults.
The second game is Bill Belichick is nothing if not a grudge holder. He wants to win this game so much because his career. I mean, there's like multiple stories out of the Boston Herald Belichick's out, He's told his staff he wants to screw up their draft. He's gonna
walk out of here get the Washington job. He cares so deeply about winning, you think he wants to hand them Michael Nix or Drake May You want some fifth I'm just gonna say they if they if you watch them the last three weeks, I mean, I guess Buffalo, you're like, oh, they're really competing. Oh yeah, they're really competing. I'm gonna take the Patriots minus two and a half at home to beat a listless Jets team.
Yeah, it's totally square. You're stepping in it. Look, it's not a game that anybody wants to bet. This all of a sudden is the corner TV game, right, because you're getting a short home favorite in which the bookmakers are saying to the squares, come on, I dare you take the short home favorite. Take the team that has been competitive the past few weeks at less than a field goal. That's what we want you to do. If the bookmakers are telling you they want you to do something,
then you want to do something else. So the wise guys are going to be on the Jets here. But this is not one of those games where everyone's like, oh yeah, I gotta take. There is huge edge in the Jets or the Patriots in this game. I will tell you one other thing, and it's interesting for this week because it's applicable for every game home teams in division games the past five years forty seven percent against the spread.
It's weird.
Yeah, it's weird, it is. But then you got to like, look, Colin, there's a million stats and trends that you could sort of layer onto this.
Right.
You got to think about and It's not applicable in this game, but it will be in others. Like you can't take every trend and just say, Okay, I'm going to do it. Trends are the handrail on the roller coaster. If you've got an opinion, they might make you feel a little more secure. It can make you feel like you're making a better decision. It should not be what you base your decision on.
All Right, a game, I like Bill's minus three at Miami. Now Chubb and Phillips are out no pass rush against John Allen. I think the Bills are a better team. I think they were looking ahead to Miami when they played New England. I thought the Dolphins were awful defensively. I think the reality has hit Miami. They now their defense had a pass rush and not much else, and now it doesn't have a pass rush. Buffalo is a better team. Josh Allen has eaten against Miami like Brian
Flores couldn't stop him. Mike mcdett, they just don't have the personnel. I'm gonna take Buffalo to win by a touchdown minus three. Sharper square most interesting game on the board. I'll tell you right now it's square. But I will also.
Tell you, you and I and our best friend Simon, we're making an executive decision on this. We're going to be in the fox hole together. We like the Bills in this spot. Let me give you some interesting stats.
I didn't Diyreek Hill by the way, house burns down midweek.
Look, so i'll mention you.
Tell me that's not disrupt.
Listen, you mentioned Chubb, you mentioned the injuries on the defensive side. Out of the ball. Tyreek Hill has been playing injured. Waddle has been playing injured. I do think I am not a guy who believes that there are emotional storylines that can be hindrances, because these guys are professionals. But look, Tyreek Hill, there was video from practice. He did not look like it looked like he was taking this as he should, which is scary and something that
can be a distraction. Right. I agree with you in every respect on this game. Here's something cool October second. So on October second, Buffalo was minus one forty to win the AFC East. Miami was plus one thirty eight. On December third, two months later, Buffalo plus I let me get my glasses on here, because I want to make sure you'd it right. I didn't know you were going to ask me this question. So it just just happens to be Buffalo plus fifteen hundred to win the
AFC East, Miami minus four hundred. Okay, basically, for those listening, you don't know, Buffalo was such a long shot that they were not even a consideration to win the AFC East. Miami was so much was expected to win so easily that you had to spend so much money if you wanted to bet on them. Right now, Buffalo has the shortest odds it's had all season, minus one sixty five to win the AFC East. It has been a roller coaster.
What's amazing is Buffalo could end up being the best team in the NFL right now, and if they don't win this game, they might not make the playoffs.
Okay, Seahawks minus two and a half at Arizona. So Seattle's humiliated. And not only that, I always say a well coached team, capably quarterback team that's physically humiliated. I mean literally, Pittsburgh just threw them around there like bully them. Seattle playing for a playoff spot, I think they're going to play very well here. If the number was three. I would pass. It's a numbers get Arizona's off. By the way, their best performance in two years. It probably
a little overvalued on the market. I'm going to probably take Seattle minus two and a half. I know I like favorites this week, Sharper square.
It's a little square. The number was at three, it moved down to two and a half. It's hard to find a reason to like Seattle. What they did against the Steelers. Their inability to tackle anybody is not bad. It was not It was not something that was a one off. This has been their m all year, Like they cannot tackle. Like watching Pete Carroll trying to implore his defense to tackle Najee Harris was sad and sort of disheartening as someone who was kind of hoping the
Seahawks would win that game. So I don't like this bet, Colin. I don't like it one bit. And there are so many bets on the board that are that are attractive, and you could throw me the Jets and the Patriots. You're the one who says to me your philosophy, I want to bet on games I want to watch you want to watch these games?
Well, it's a limited week, and I think Belichick will be interesting. Okay, so now let's move into the two categories. I have a talk me into it game and a dumpster dive. So I do think Bears Packers is interesting because I do think eber Flus and Justin Fields are largely playing for their job. And although I do think Jordan Love had maybe his best game as a Packer, there's a desperation here on the Chicago Bears. Employment's desperate, and I would probably, I would probably take the Bears here.
Plus three. Man, you're if I'm doing a show for my job. That's a whole different ballgame. Is that Sharper square?
Colin? I need you to think that every day your job is on the line. Because you are taking the Chicago Bears this week, that will be in your blaze. In five Chicago Bears plus three, great matchup for the Bears. So number one, it hits that trend I talk about where you want to play the road team against the
home team in the division. There is another trend going back to nineteen ninety that hits it as sixty percent clip where the teams that are out of it playing teams that are in it cover sixty percent of the time. Now that's that's fine. Again, take trends with a grain of salt. You want to use them to sort of complement your overall philosophy. Right, let's look what's happening on the field of play. The Bears defense since they got meant to Monte sweat lights out, not just like a good defense.
For the record, it was remarkable to me to watch Chicago media crush their front office. Wouldn't you give up a second round pick for a dominating defensive lineman.
Dominating defensive line.
I mean, I didn't understand, Like Chase Claypool's different. There's a million receivers, there's nine great defensive linemen in the league. Second round pick.
Great trade. Now again talk about trade, talk about talk about sort of your job being on the line. The Bears GM he made a great trade. What does he do next? And now this is where it gets interesting. Right, So that defense is elite. And by the way, what we saw last week is Minnesota with the Packers is Minnesota likes to blitz. Jordan Love has thirty touchdown passes this year. He has been incredibly accurate and efficient against the blitz. So they were set up to get blown out.
The Vikings were set up to get blown out in that game. No matter who's playing quarterback. The Bears are not a team that is going to blitz you NonStop. They will get home with their front four. Their front four has also made their linebacking crew, especially TJ. Edwards, much better. And don't forget Jalen Johnson, he's a Pro Bowl cornerback. Grating is one of the best cornerbacks in
the league according to Pro Football Focus. So their defense is stout right Now, now you've got justin Fields playing against a defense for the Packers that has truly been terrible. Forget about what happened in terrible on Sunday night, right, forget about that the Packers. Since they beat the Chiefs, and by the way, they got a little help from the rest of that game. What did they do? They lost to the Giants. Right, they gave up thirty points
to the Carolina Panthers. The Carolina Panthers have not scored more than three touchdowns since October fifteenth except for that game. This is not a good defense going up against a very good offense. A team in the Bears seven and five the past twelve games. Take the Bears.
One more. Talk me into it. Arthur Smith coaching for his job plus three and a half at the Saints. It feels like to me, the Saints are not It's an offensive coach against the defensive coach. It's a division rival getting over a field goal. Atlanta pl and I hate betting Atlanta. They have been an ATM machine my entire life. I just just take money out and throw it into the wind. But it feels like Atlanta plus three and a half. Although I think the coach is
getting fired. Mondays to play Sharper square totally sharp.
It's exactly the right side you want to be on Atlanta here. So number one, it's the trend we just talked about. You want to take the road team in the division. Number two. Schematically, look at the matchup. You know Arthur Smith is coaching for his job. Right the Bucks lose, the Saints lose to the Falcons, they are in the playoffs, they win this division. What is Arthur
Smith going to do. He's going to run the ball because that's where his best talent is, that is where he is most comfortable, that's where he can be most creative. Get it to Algiers, get it to b Jean Robinson. Don't let this be a game in which the quarterback ruins it for you. The Saints running defense has not been very good. Dennis Allen as a favorite. One of the worst coaches the past twenty years. Derek Carr as
a favorite. He has not been above five hundred as a favorite since before Donald Trump was inaugurated as president in two thousand and sixteen. I'm not even kidding. Okay, you don't want to bet on the Saints as a favorite, just walk away and bet the Falcons.
Okay, now we do a dumpster die, but since most of the schedules dumpster dice, I want to end this week with Michigan and Washington. So I took Washington money line against Texas, and I took Michigan against Bama, went to and Ozho. I do think Michigan matches up much better against Washington. They don't give up cheap over the top touchdowns, and I do worry Klin de Boor is a remarkable coach with extra time. They don't have extra time. So now you've got to play back to back against
a superior team. Washington heavily penalized. Michigan never penalized. The older team is Michigan. They're the better team. They have seven blowouts. Washington just keeps winning narrowly. I'm a Husky. I'm now down to Washington, but I think Michigan wins this game by a touchdown. I would swallow the four four and a half all odds provided by DraftKings Sharper Square.
I don't have a strong opinion. I haven't gotten that much intel in the market where they're not the wise guys are going to be on the Huskies or they're gonna be on the Wolverines. I don't want to mislead you in any way with that. I don't disagree with your assessment. And look, I love this Washington team. I've like I went to Indiana. I'm a huge fan of
Michael Pennix. Like the only time we've been relevant since I graduated college was when Michael Penix was playing quarterback for half of three seasons because he couldn't stay healthy. I think the guy got job not getting the Heisman. You put someone with that record, those stats, the gauntlet of teams that he played in the SEC or the Big Ten or even the ACC. He's winning the Heisman hands down. I think it's I think he got robbed completely. But I do agree with you. Like this Michigan team.
They are unafraid and they beat people up and at the line of scrimmage, they are just so freaking physical. It is really daunting. And there is nothing like that in the PAC twelve. And that is something that Alabama was used to seeing, like something that combination of speed and physicality that doesn't exist in the PAC twelve. So I do think that it'll be a quarter of Washington being like Oh, even on film, we thought it was different,
but it's different when you're playing it. So I can't give you a specific side, but I do like your analysis. All Right, my man, you don't want to bet the Giants, you don't want to bet the Panthers, you don't want to bet the Titans.
Ough gross, I will say this. I took the Giants against the Rams. You know I've said this before. I think Tyrod Taylor is the best backup in the league. That's my opinion. So what's the number? This week?
The Giants were at five five and a half. I like the Giants. A buddy of mine we were talking about Tyrod Taylor and he used a great analogy, he said. Tyrod Taylor is like getting nineteen at the blackjack table. You're not going to get excited about it. You got a pretty good chance at winning, but there's still a chance you can lose, but you're comfortable with it. You feel like you got a shot. Yeah. I thought that was brilliant, and I'm stealing it and I'm giving it
to you, and I want you to steal it. It is exactly who Tyrod Taylor is, So I think, Look, the Giants are more competitive with him. They will want to win this game. They will blitz. The Eagles offensive line is in really struggling right now. They are play calling you struggling. AJ Brown is struggling. There's something going on. We have seen it all year long with this locker room. So I'll be playing the Giants and I will definitely playing the Tennessee Titans plus five and a half.
I'm not even gonna talk about that. I can't. They're unwatchable.
You can talk about Arizona and Seattle.
Yeah, but I love Kyler Murray so I love watching them play. I love watching Kyler Murray play. Love him, I really do. Connor's great. They're running back, Kyler. I can watch them all day. Tennessee is like walking past the construction site. It's just loud, overbearing. I can't get out of it fast enough. It's just gross clanking, nothing good about it.
What about Minnesota Detroit, that's another one.
Oh fascinating, I stay away, you know again, it's what's Detroit playing for. I don't like those. I don't like these games where I wouldn't be shocked. Two series, Detroit lead seven nothing and they sit all their starters. They just wanted their guys to get practice.
That's why you're taking Minnesota in that game. Ugh, Nick Mullins. Nick Mullins lit him up. Listen, Nick Mullins is the epitome of gambling. If Tyrad Taylor is, you know, comfortable nineteen, Nick mud he was a fourteen. Nick Mullens is hitting on sixteen. That is, Nick Mullins is hitting on sixteen when the dealer is showing twenty, like you are just going for it.
Yeah, but you know what a sixteen is in blackjack. You're embarrassed, you're holding, but you know you have to or the table disrespects you. But you literally feel like I've lost all my testosterone I mean you literally, every time I have a sixteen, I'm like, you got to hit a sixteen, but you can't because you're being judged at the table by all the smart people.
And that's how Nick Mullins plays.
I think he's a twelve, is what he is. It's like you want to hit it, but not supposed to.
Wow, all right, fine, all right, buddy. I then taught to you later the volume