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get out and have some fun this weekend, baby. Download the game Time app today, last minute tickets, lowest prices, guarantee game time. Hi everybody, how about that? I think we watched two really good football teams, both with improved defenses, and neither played particularly well tonight. So starters over the last few years are playing fewer snaps in preseason, and I thought that was fairly evident. We've seen that in college football. With a transfer portal, you know, you don't
have a preseason. In college football, it can get choppy. Even for the great teams like Ohio State, these are much better defenses. Kansas City relied on a lot of young players. They didn't have Chris Jones, and I yet generated a really good pass rush, batted down several Jared Goff throws, including a crucial fourth and two late. Now they lost the game, but that was a big moment, so you know, and they've got you know, Nick Bolton's a tremendous young linebacker. They've got some young studs in
the secondary. So if you're if you're a Kansas City that's a pretty good defensive performance because the Lions are going to light some people up that old line goff Omar on Saint Brown running game. Detroit's going to drop some thirty bombs on people. And I thought Kansas City's defense, all those young players, another year in camp, another off season under spags, I thought the Chiefs defense was really impressive and generated against a great O line, a pretty
consistent pass rush without Chris Jones. So for Kansas City, it all is not lost. You didn't have Kelsey, you didn't have Chris Jones, and you know you missed Kelsey. There's one percent of the players in this league are worth I mean, take out quarterbacks. There may be twenty players in this league that are worth a point to a point and a half, and Travis Kelsey's one of them. And when you lose a Tyreek kill, as you justus ms Schuster, Travis Kelcey becomes even more crucial. I mean,
how many passes did Tony drop tonight? How many passes did Kansas City drop tonight? You really, I mean Travis Kelsey would have gotten a dozen thirteen, fourteen targets, made nine to ten catches, probably for over one hundred yards. So they really missed Travis Kelcey tonight. His ball security, his hands, his dependability on big third down plays. And that's not an excuse. That's probably the difference in the ballgame. Kelsey is that much of a security blanket in key spots.
It's like Brady and Gronk. He just is great great players, Edelman, Gronk. How big were they in playoff games? Big games on third down or fourth down in the red zone for top Brady even great players have players they depend on. Let's talk to Troy. I didn't think they played necessarily that great. I thought their O line struggled to pass protect. I didn't think they could generate much of a run game early, and that's for the good old line. But again,
it's the cohesion is very difficult. You're on the road, it's loud. Kansas City played very well defensively upfront. Spags is a great defensive coordinator, So I thought the Lions have addressed I mean they've really the last two drafts, the Lions know, you know, most of their talent was on the offensive side, so their front office has done a good job. Branch had to pick six. Hutchison's a tremendous It's not TJ Watt yet, but he is a tremendous He's not a Bosa yet, but he is excellent,
consistent pass rusher, great motor. Never stops out of Michigan. So if you're if you're the Lions tonight, if I'm a Lions fan, my take is, I didn't think we even played that great in the first half. I thought where you saw the Lion's strength is as the game wore on that offensive line. They had that nine play drive in the fourth quarter, then they had they picked up a first down late trying to kill the clock. That's just you know these games. Defenses early in games,
Kansas City consistent pass rush, young defense. All of a sudden that nine play drive, goff made a couple of big throws. They start and it was a power run game. It was clever. They had different looks, but it was not a finesse run game. On that nine play drive. It was a power run game. And you could see it felt a little bit like to me that O line kind of exerted its power a little bit in that drive. Again, I think two really good teams to
clearly improve defenses, neither played particularly well. So if you're Kansas City, Travis Kelcey was clearly missed. Chris Jones didn't feel like he was, but Travis Kelsey was clearly missed with all the drops. And I think if you look at Detroit, we didn't play particularly well. Couldn't some mishaps in the first half. I didn't even think. I know everybody loves the OC Ben Johnson for the Lions, I didn't love his play calling in certain spots the night
I really didn't. On fourth and two in the fourth quarter, I'm like, I wear my notes here. Yeah, fourth and two, there's a minute or so, a minute and a half, two minutes left, maybe two and a half. Run the ball. You just had a nine play power run drive like, run the ball. They didn't pass batted down. So I think Detroit is flying home tonight thinking Dan campbell'son in that locker room. Guys, this was not flawless football. We just beat the World Champs on the road. We didn't
play that great in spots. Our pass protection wasn't great, couldn't run the first ball of football in the first half goff a lot of passes batted down. But I think what you saw with that fake punt early in the game, I think Detroit came in with a mindset, we're taking big swings here. Ok, We're not playing the World Champs and going conservative. To beat Mahomes, got to take a league, got to take big cuts, big swings. Can't play not to lose. I mean, how many times
have we seen that with Mahomes. You got to play aggressive football. And so they came in with an attitude and I think that's what Dan Campbell has provided do I think he's schematically brilliant. Well, he's built a very good staff, so he knows people. That's clear. The front office has done a really good job to build this O line and the defense up over the last couple of years. You know, when I do these hits, everybody
always feels good about the winning team. If I'm Detroit, we didn't play that great and we won in Kansas City. I think Travis Kelsey was missed. I mean, man, a lot of drops. Now. The other thing, I don't think Mahomes played particularly well. I thought he was behind. The timing was off. This is the downside to not playing quarterbacks in the preseason much. I thought Mahomes was really hit and miss. I mean he's short, hot and deep ball. He never does that behind on two or three guys. Now,
the drops didn't help. But you know, again, when you don't have your security blanket, your Edelman or your Gronk for Brady, you're forcing stuff. The timing's not perfect. So you have young guys. Sky Moore's a young guy. I don't have Kelsey. I didn't play much in the preseason. This is what it looks like. So it's a go either way game. The Lions get that big drive, that nine play drive late wasn't pretty, was not an artistic masterpiece. I don't think either team played particularly well, but a
tip of the captain of the Lions. Good for them. I had him winning the NFC North. I got my team. I think in that division, amongst the Bears, the Packers, and the Vikings, I think they have the best offensive line. I think the edge Green Bay for the best offensive line. I think Goff is better than Kirk Cousins, not as athletic, but a better pocket guy than Justin Fields, better than Jordan love So. I think the old line and the quarterback. I think the Lions have the best groups in their division,
and I think their defense is improved. They've branch Hutchison, They've hitt in a couple guys, so it's an exciting time. It's My wife is from Michigan. She doesn't follow sports or care about it, but she knows. She knows about the Lions, and she knows about Michigan football. So good for Detroit. And they've had some lean decades, but it felt big. It felt big for them, and I like the way Detroit won. I liked that nine play drive in the second half. That's just Dan Campbell. That's that's
fite kneecaps. That's big, tough, physical power running. Nice w We're here, baby, football's here. We're going to bring in Jamack of the Herd Jason McIntyre to play a new game every week called the Vaulted Challenge. Okay, so we're excited to be used the Vaulted app. It's spelled v l ted. Vaulted is a place where you can store your sports predictions and participate in cash prize pools without
any entry fee. How cool is that you can prove you're smarter than all your friends using the Vaulted Challenge App. I'm issuing three challenges to Jmack around this weekend's game. He can either accept or reject my Vaulted Challenge. So here we go. My prediction Kenny Pickett throws for more yards than Brock Purty of San Francisco. I'm risking three units. Agree or disagree.
I disagree, Colin. I like Brock Purty in this spot. I know it's a road game. We don't know the status of George Kittle, but this is a this is a game where he's gonna have to put the ball up in the air.
I think thirty thirty.
Five pass attempts because I think they're gonna be playing from behind, and I don't think they're gonna be able to run on this nasty Pittsburgh defensive front. I think this is probably a two hundred and fifty yard passing game for Perdy, and I don't know that Pickle will get there, mostly because the defense will do the job. I like Pittsburgh in the game, and I like Purdy through the air.
Next up, Texans Ravens. I predict Lamar Jackson has more total touchdowns than the entire Texans offense. I'm risking seven units on this one. Agree or disagree.
Yeah, I'm gonna agree with you there. I'm surprised it wasn't ten units. Goodness gracious, I mean Lamar, this could be a bloodbath. I don't see the Texans stopping Lamar. He's never had this many weapons. Odell Beckham's a flower like they really are in line here to put up forty and make a statement. We've got a new offensive coordinator, We're moving on to a new era. And Texans and Damiico Ryans. I'm sorry, it's an Uphill Challenge. You don't have the forty nine ers defense you had last year.
Final Challenge Packers Bears. I'm gonna predict Justin Fields, Chicago quarterback has more rushing yards than Aaron Jones, the top running back for Green Bay. I'm risking two units. Agree or disagree.
Smells like a trap. I'm gonna go ahead and disagree with you, Colin. I think this is an Aaron Jones game. If you've seen the injury reports, Romeo Dobbs and Christian Watson are like, we don't know that they're not practicing earlier in the week. It's like how healthy are they? Then you look at the weapons outside and Jordan Love is not gonna have many. I think this is a heavy Aaron Jones game, probably with a dose of mister
Dylan behind him. I think Justin Fields, we know what he can do getting loose, but all signs indicate Fields is gonna want to win from the pocket this year. He can't take the beating he took last year. So I think Field's rushing yards probably diminished a little bit. Aaron Jones I got them on all my fantasy teams. This is probably a one twenty five one to fifty game from Aaron Jones. All right, Colin, my first challenge to you is that Baker Mayfield, your favorite quarterback, will
have more passing yards than Kirk Cousins. I'm risking four units on this one. Agree or disagree?
I agree. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have shown no ability in the last two years to run the football. Baker's going to be forced to throw. I like their weapons. This is one of those games that I don't like Tampa to win. I think they'll trail. I think they'll have to throw. I think they'll have no run game. I agree. Hmm interesting.
All right, let's go to my next one, Texans Ravens CJ. Stroud's debut. I predict he will have less than two touchdown passes. I'm risking only one unit here because this, like I said earlier, could be a blood bath and he's airing it out. Would you agree or disagree?
I'm gonna disagree because I think they'll trail and have to throw the ball. Ravens in a prevent defense late and CJ will actually get those you know, classic last two to three drive yards and touchdowns to elevate his overall numbers. I think they trail. I think it could be ugly. He'll get a lot of those padded stats that don't mean much. But I disagree. Garbage time.
All right, we'll wrap up with my final prediction. Most confident here. Russell Wilson has more than two hundred and thirty five and a half passing yards against the Raiders. I'm winning nine units on this one. Colin a lot of confidence.
Agree or disagree? I agree, and I think Denver wins, and probably comfortably. Denver at home. Sean Payton was Coach of the Year with the Saints his first year. He figures stuff out quickly. I work with him in TV. He figures stuff out quickly. Raiders are a bit of a mess. The Chandler Jones drama, I don't love, don't love ownership, new front Office. I agree. I think Russell new slimmer, Russell running more play action Russell. I think
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play appropriately the square. Though last year I hit fifty five to fifty six percent of my games and had a winning opening week, which I'm not prone to do because I tend to be like a boxer. I feel out the opposition, and so my Week one history is pretty lame and the sharp is as olways Chad Milman, the Action Network. All of our odds provided by DraftKings, our new partner. So let's just I'm gonna just ease my way into it. You know, there's a lot of
things I'll tell you. One of my I talked about this all off season, and I don't know if I'm going to make it a bet. But I said, Shane Steikin's great. I've seen him work magic with two young quarterbacks, and I have no idea, nor does Jacksonville know what the hell they're getting from Anthony Richardson. I'm not going
to make that one of my picks. But a rivalry game, you know we're going to be stunned by something week one, So I just want a feeler on that because I think Jacksonville is coming in with pressure and has no idea what they're getting. I think for three hours you can upset people when they it's just the element of surprise.
What would you say, I'd say you don't need a couple of weeks to feel things out right now, Colin, you are as sharp as a knife. The only reason I haven't done is yet is because Jacksonville is such a public team that I know money is going to come in on them during the weekend, and by Sunday I might get a better number. I might get Indianapolis plus five and a half plus six. So I'm just waiting for that. But look, in previous years, we've seen this.
Jacksonville hosts Indianapolis in Week one and everybody knows you're gonna bet on Indianapolis, but you bet on Jacksonville because they're the worst team and they're getting huge number. It's the only game they win all year, and then Indianapolis turns around and is fine. Now the situation is reversed. Jacksonville is everybody's darling. They love Trevor Lawrence. This is a terrible offensive line, maybe one of the worst offensive lines in the end, and they're without Cam Robinson for
the first four weeks of the year. This is going to be Indianapolis's one of their best chances to win. So I love, love, love Indie as an underdog. Here all right, well.
I'm gonna bet that game. I just decided. Okay, here's another one. So I'm gonna say something, and you are going to tell your friends off air. He doesn't know what he's talking about. But here's my theory, because you would not be rude. But I've always had this thing about the number four embedding. So when I see three and a half, I'm gonna take the hook in most instances, but four is different. Vegas and the wise guys are telling you we don't need the hook. The favorites, the
better team. So Sean Payton won Coach of the Year first year in New Orleans. His shit works fast, and we don't doubt the talent here, it's just the culture. Here's what I saw. Russell Wilson loses weight by the second preseason game. They do one series and Sean's like, Okay, seen enough, I'm not showing you anything else. I think, Sean, remember the first preseason game. They've played four series in one week. All of a sudden, that next series, You're like, oh,
that looks good. Sean closed the books. We're done. I think Denver comes out. They're great. Opening weeks in the altitude. They beat the desert team Denver minus four Sharper square.
Yeah. I think your instincts are all right. I love Denver. I one of my biggest bets is Denver to win the AFC West. I also, listen, you have to think about what you just said, right, Think about Sean Payton. Think about a defense. Think about a defense that gave up more than twenty points once in the first eleven weeks of the year. They could have won so many games if their offense could have scored two and a half touchdowns in the first eleven games of the year.
They lost multiple games in overtime. It wasn't until the end of the year, where they had completely lost themselves that their defense started to fade a little bit. They've got really good skill position players. You've got to believe that Sean Payton is worth several wins on top of what they did last year. Certainly like them at over
eight and a half wins. And why not, it's not going to be the Kansas City Show every single year in the AFC West, and there's always a team eighteen of the past twenty years, Colin, a team goes from worse to first in the division? Why not Denver. So all that said, this game is kind of a pass for me because I don't like the number. I think four is actually too much, and you're talking about a
divisional game, first game of the year. There's a couple spots here where I like the favorite a lot, but I don't like the number in these scenarios, and this is one of those games.
All Right, I'm gonna go to the one o'clock window. This has been much discussed in the HERD. I don't know if you've heard, but it's a very popular show.
Nationally.
The kids adore it, tell me about it. The old people tolerate it. So yeah, I'm gonna take Pittsburgh plus the points. I don't love DraftKings has it at plus two. I like two point five. I like two and a half. Okay, but when TJ wats healthy, they win. Mike Tomlin is as good a coach as the league has. When he's backed into a corner, he's playing a more talented team. Everybody's disrespecting Kenny Pickett's I don't like Tomlin as a favorite,
but as a home dog. I remember a couple of years ago when he went to Buffalo and they walked in there with an old big bend. I'm like, what did I just watch? I'm gonna take the points with Pittsburgh. Canny Pickett once at the end of the year he moved the chains. What do you think, Sharper Square.
You're so freaking sharp on this colin on the Favorites podcast, which you know, well, this was my executive decision, meaning it's a must bet game. I love Pittsburgh here truth be told. I loved Pittsburgh when the lines opened in I don't know May or June, and they were three point underdogs at home. I think Kenny Bickett is a baller. I love him as a quarterback for this team San Francisco. Look, they're going to be a team that everyone loves to
potentially make the Super Bowl as a road favorite. Kyle Shanahan is not great, just ten and eleven against the spread. But what you said about Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin is the best underdog coach in the past twenty years, literally the most profitable underdog coach in the past twenty years. They are fifty three thirty and four as an underdog under Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh is so I love this team. I kind of love them outright, like Tomlin does really well.
He's twenty nineteen and covering it like as a outright as an underdog. So this is a great game to bet. Also, let me say one thing. TJ. Watt huge game changer. Don't forget he was injured for a lot of the season last year. Right eight and two straight up and against the spread. Pittsburgh is when TJ. Watt is on the field last year, so this is a much different team with TJ. Watt. You got it back, You got it back Pittsburgh.
Here as a young child, the kids in the neighborhood would call me contrarian Colin. I'm gonna take New York plus three and a half. Here's why. Daniel Jones may have a ceiling, but he doesn't lose you games. He had five picks. He's a bigger, stronger, more athletic version of Alex Smith. There's a ceiling, but in year two with Brian Dable, they've added an element of Darren Waller. They're now very good at tackle both sides. Their second round pick could be the best young center in the game.
Barkley's in house. I like their defensive front kevon Thiebaudo a second year. I don't like Dallas's head coach. I'm not in love with the offensive line coach. Their best coach is their defensive coordinator, and Dak has become a pocket passer. That's what he is now. Second year Brian Dable at home, the world loves Dallas. I don't think New York is a great team, but I don't see them going off a cliff with Brian Dable. I'm gonna take three and a half and New York Sharper Square.
Totally sharp, You're making the exact right move. I know that New York is a better team, but close spread division rivals. What's really interesting about New York, and there's a similarity with Minnesota. The narrative for both teams is that they won a lot of close games. The narrative for Minnesota is that there's going to be huge regression that they will not be able to do the same thing. The narrative for New York is that Brian Dabel is
such a good coach. A lot of a lot of the success they had is repeatable, and we're all sort of falling into that trap a little bit that he is so good he will win his team games in ways that other coaches can't. I firmly believe that New York is the right side in this game because of Brian Dable, because of some of the things you just
said about the talent they've added. It'll be very interesting to see if this narrative hold and if he is good enough to keep this team in close games the way he did last year.
It's a big game, so let's play it.
So.
I don't love that von Miller is out for Buffalo, and I don't love that Leslie Frasier just decided to leave the franchise. But Buffalo is well coached. Josh Allen is in his prime. You don't have to love either offensive line, but old quarterbacks bad at tackle is a real concern. We can say we don't like this Defaon Diggs drama. We know it's gonna be fine week one. Okay, we're not worried about a blow up now. It was the end of last year. I get a quarterback in
his prime. They got the best tight end in the draft. They're healthy outside of Von Miller. I don't like when Tom Brady went to Tampa. What did he say? Tristan Wurf's stafford fell apart when the O line did. Young quarterbacks Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Herbert Herbert set rookie records with a terrible old line. I think Aaron's gonna get prickly really fast. This is a bad old line. I'm gonna take Buffalo minus two and a half sharper square square.
This is a bad spot. This is a bad spot for Buffalo, and it's a good spot for New York. And I'll preface all of what I'm going to say by saying I have Buffalo going to the super Bowl, and I am fading New York every chance I get. If it's the right spot. This is not the right spot. I think it's one of the I think in a week we're gonna love Buffalo and we're gonna hate New York. But one thing New York has going for it. A. It's at home, prime time. Aaron Rodgers, if he's ever
going to shine, this is the spot. B. They've got a tremendous defensive line. Buffalo's offensive line is just not that good. And so while Josh Allen is incredibly athletic and in his prime and we'll be able to make people miss and cover up people's mistakes, he can't do it the whole game against a really good New York defense. So this game probably should be closer to pick. And you're getting two and a half points of value. We got, you know, the podcast and the favorites. We get calls
from professional betters all the time. This was the game they could not wait to hammer. Okay, as Is, you did great, though, Colin, you did really good well, Contrarian, I don't want you to feel bad about yourself.
Got that Moniker as a child, Okay.
Contrarian on the tough you grew up with a lot of wise guys that year.
The tough streets of grayln Washington. Okay, you always convinced me of a game to take a lot of people like Washington this week, I don't know. Give me the game you think I missed? Overlooked?
How gross do you want to be?
Oh, this is the game you play. I listen. I can be.
Gross because I could go try to get you to take Houston at plus ten. The only no, I.
Don't want to go by a kid. I can't do it. You know. I hate big numbers. I hate big favors.
I know, but that's that is That is definitely a game I'm going to be betting. But how about this? And I'm surprised you didn't mention this one? Why not Cleveland hosting Cincinnati? Cleveland is another one, similar to Denver. I bet Cleveland to win the AFC North. This has this team has a top five offensive line, They've got a top five defensive line and incredibly talented roster, a really good coach. You're betting on Deshaun Watson getting back
to mid level form. But Joe Burrow he's been injurered week one can be challenging. We don't know what we're getting out of that team yet they're on the road. This is the spot where you find out what kind of talent and competition Cleveland can live up to. I smash Cleveland, love this spot.
For Let me throw this one at you, just interested in your perspective. We both love Chicago. I'm going to stay away from this game. And a lot of people like green Bay here. What say you?
Yeah? The wise guys like green Bay here a lot more than they like Chicago. And I think it's they liked it and started pounding it when the line was at about two and a half. Look, there's been so much hype for Chicago. I obviously love Chicago. I'm from there. I talk about them often. I'm not convinced that this is going to be a team you want to bet on early. They've still got a lot of offensive line issues. We don't know how accurate Justin fields can be with
Dj Moore. The defense is atrocious. It's still a team to finish three and fourteen, lost ten games in a row, like it is not a good spot for them. I think there's a lot more to love for a Green Bay's roster from top to bottom, and the fact that they have seen enough of Jordan Love to feel good that he can be someone who can potentially win this game outright. So as a short underdog, the professionals are back in Green Bay.
I want to stay away from Miami this year because at TUA, I'm staying away mostly.
I think that's right. I like Los Angeles here. It's a tricky game, though it's a really there's a lot of tricky games. And the other game. By the way, I know we're ending our time here, but we did not talk about New England and Philadelphia, which is another game. The wise guys love New England.
So I like New England, but I worry about the right side of their old line.
Listen from everyone who knows more than me, call Cosel. Does Cosell care about the right tackle? Does he have the right tackle who's filling in? Graded that much below the right tackle who's injured? The line moved half a point off of that news, So New England is now a four point underdog. I would take New England in this spot.
Well, I'm not going to have a cocktail. It's Thursday game night, so I'll have clarity to sleep on that. You may have convinced me on that one. That right tackle, that right tackles everything.
I do what I can. This is why, this is why professional betters watch preseason games. People think, oh, why would you bet on preseason game? Why would you watch preseason Professional betters watch preseason games. I've been in the room with them when they're talking about this, because they are grading the backup tackle and the backup guard late in the second quarter, in the third quarter, all the
way through to the fourth quarter. Because that does make a difference for a lot of teams when it comes to betting on them later in the season when you start to get banged up. So this is an important right tackle. You joke, but it's it's important. But I don't think it's going to matter in.
A professional betters. You know what's different about you. You're the only one with a beautiful redhead. He has folks, He has a beautiful Yeah, well that would go for you too. My wife look like sisters. You very pro sports canbeller have beautiful wives. That's just a random generalization.
By the way, I think they would say, oh, Colin.
You're being contrarian. Sharper square, all odds provided by draft Kings. My friend awesome, See you later. The volume