The volume. It's the Colin Coward Podcast presented by Fan Duel Football seasons in full gear. No better place to get in on the action than Fan Duel. Fan Duel App is safe, you get paid fast. A lot of ways to play the spread, the money line, team totals, players, props, a lot of stuff over unders, jump into the action. Same game parlays are my favorite. Just use the promo code Colin and download the Fan Duel app today. All right, time for an instant reaction on the Jets Jaguars. I
poured a strong drink. This is going to take a while, So first I have to commend New York football fans, Buffalo fans, Giant fans, Jet fans now Josh Allen finally arrives about four years ago, and the Bills games were wildly entertaining. But for over a decade, the Bills were mostly unwatchable, and those wonderful fans in Buffalo filled that stadium with less than ideal weather. Giants and Jets fans
for a combined what twenty years mostly unwatchable drek. Offensively, the fact that Jets fans go to these games, stay at these games. Let's have a drink to that. That was gruesome. Zach Wilson's gone from b YU to bye bye. I'm not sure he's an NFL player. I never felt Johnny Manzil was an NFL player. Never did. I never felt Tebow was an NFL player. I'm not sure Zach Wilson's a backup. I'm not sure he is. Didn't like to pick, never was a fan set it from the beginning.
I've had my missus. This isn't one of them, you know. I want to tell you a story about so I've been in radio for you know, Fox for five or six years, ESPN ten eleven, local radio for seven or eight whatever, about twenty twenty five years. Whatever that is. I'm not going to tell you the year of the person. But in that span of twenty twenty five years, I had an executive come to me once and he was considering hiring a very talented person to do a radio show.
And I said to the executive, I said, there's a big difference between somebody being a really good guest on a radio show for ten to twelve minutes and somebody being a host for three hours. This person was a very good guest, and I said, we both liked the person. The person's very talented at what they do. But I said, I don't believe he's a host. I believe he's a great guest. And so you know the show. They hired him anyway, and it didn't work out as well as
that executive had hoped. And about I don't know. Six months later, I got like a Christmas party, I think it was the exact comes up to me and says, you know, I should have listened to you, And I said no, I said, but as somebody who talks to themselves for hours and hours, I said, you know, June, July, August, September, you know there are these long stretches where you're just you've got to be able to just look at a microphone and talk. And I said, when I watched Zach Wilson,
I think he was great at his pro day. A lot of these guys are great at their pro day, their showoffs. They're not built to run a franchise emotionally, from Provo Utah to New York intellectually, byu schedule to the National Football League. Physically, you know, Utah's the best opponent you play to the Bills. There were so many things this kid who aced his Pro Day had to overcome. You know. That's why mostly in the history of NFL football, guys from Power five schools have done pretty well. Not
all the time. Big Ben was terrific, but you were asking him to make a leap from BYU schedule to the NFL Pro vote in New York City. He's smaller than you'd like. He is built for a Pro day. Johnny Manzill's built for a Pro day, especially Zach Wilson. He moves, he's good looking, the optics are good, he's got a nice arm, and then you put six foot seven and a half offensive linemen in front of him, the pressure of the New York media, cold off in
windy weather, sophisticated defenses stuffing against BYU. But look at their schedule. You know they're facing a Power five school two or three times a year. It's a lot of really you know, like second third tier coaches they go against. Now you're going up against Belichick twice a year and Sean McDermott twice a year. So there were so many
asks of him. The leap was too big, and there's talent there, but you know, I'm watching Zach Wilson tonight, and it was almost as if when they put in Chris Streveler, a backup in the Canadian Football League, it was as if the offensive line blocked better, the running backs ran harder. It was as if anybody in that huddle the team responded to at a higher level. This is not a shot at Zach Wilson. I feel bad. I think about this all the time as a sportscaster.
What if my son was a quarterback, what if my son was a player. But I don't know if Zach Wilson is a pro football player. I mean Tim Tebow, Wan and Natty. I never thought he was a pro football player. He can win games, you can't build your franchise around him. So I mean Trevor Lawrence facing a better defense on the road. You know, he's a kid that played warm weather college football down in Jacksonville, goes
up to New York and is at least competent. Joe Douglas, I think is a really sharp general manager, and people will criticize him for missing on Zach Wilson, but it's not an exact science. The best football coach ever, Bill Belichick, can't draft skill people. This stuff is hard. I've got what I consider four general managers in the NFL that I text regularly, have lunch with, occasionally talked to fairly regularly. These guys are really smart, and they've missed badly on second,
third round picks. One of them's missed badly on a first round pick. It happens, It's hard. There were things about Zach Wilson that you know, he's got an arm, he's got a little Aaron Rodgers to him. But you just have to consider, you know, it's like, I guess, you know. An example I would use is if let's say you're a young person and you grow up in or around Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Seattle, pretty big towns, right, and you decide to go to college in New York City.
It's an adjustment to go from Denver to New York City. But Denver's a city too, right. If you asked somebody to go from Yuma, Arizona, cross country to New York City to college, the speed, the temple of this city, the number of people, the density, the crime rates higher, there's got to have your head in a swivel a little bit in New York City, right, Bigger cities. That's a big ask. As a parent, I would be like, whoa, whoa, whoa, I'm asking him to do too many things. I just
think they asked Zach Wilson. Maybe it would have worked if he's in Arizona or Jacksonville. Maybe. You know. I don't want to blame anybody here, but Joe Douglas is a really sharp general manager. I think Robert Sali has proven he can really coach defense. Would you want to tie your career to this? I couldn't do it. I just couldn't do it. And something else to look at tonight. This was not a typical New York weather. It was cold and windy. That's late November December, early January weather
in the Northeast. Everybody's like, oh, it's really windy. We've all you know, if you've been around and flown around the country before, we've all flown into New York City November December, January February. It's windy. That plane, there's turbulence, it's rock and you don't get a lot of sunny. Seventy four degree days with no wind just doesn't work. Listen, there's three New York football teams. One's a star quarterback, one has a total whiff, and one has Daniel Jones.
That's about the NFL average. If you take three teams. Somebody found a franchise guy, somebody totally whipped, and somebody found kind of a sort of capable guy. They'll probably move off. I was thinking about this today at the end of my show in FS one. There's only five quarterbacks in the world that if I was at GM and I had them, I would never pick up the phone for even a consideration of a trade. Mahomes, Alan Burrow,
Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence. That's it in the world. Aaron Rodgers at fifty million a year, I'd pick up the phone. Tom Brady at forty six, I'd pick up the phone. Kyler Murray attitude, I'd pick up the phone. Five. It's hard. Joe Douglas is a really, really good general manager, done a lot of good work in a couple of years. This is not pretty as far as the Jags, the eight fans of the Jaguars who are watching this instant reaction, You got your guy, you got one of the five.
It's a nice win. A typical weather for Trevor Lawrence. I thought the Jets would win to night. I thought it would be ugly, low scoring and the Jets would win. Good for Jacksonville. It's pretty cool. It's pretty cool. Doug Peterson. Listen, I got no agenda with Urban Meyer that was not good. From what I can tell, Doug Peterson has turned this puppy around. These guys are handful, and I think Greg
Kosell said it today on FS one. You move Trevor Lawrence out of the pocket, it's almost like he's more comfortable. This team is just going to get better and better and better. Once you get the quarterback right, makes life so much easier. I mean, look at the Colts. They've got a lot of things right. They can't get the quarterback right. They're swimming and you know what I mean, They're they're drowning. So instant reaction. I hope you liked it,
Jets fans, I'm sorry. All right, coming up, Action Network c CEO, Chad Milman, this is going to be good. Sharper Square. All odds provided by fan Duel. Time for Chad Milman, ce CEO, Action Network, All odds provided by fan Duel. So it's interesting. Sometimes I'll look at the numbers you peruse the numbers and I just see a bunch of things I don't like. There's always one game that jumps out to me. This week I actually saw several I liked. Now at this point, I'm not getting
the best number. Commanders getting a touchdown at the Niners looked very interesting to me because I thought largely they outplayed the Giants. I think they have a talented roster. I can see the forty nine ers looking ahead. I also think you're going to get a little pushback or a little pullback on Purdy. There's now multiple games on Brock Purdy. There's limitations. Ron Revere has been in this league as a defensive guy for a long time. My gut feeling is it's a little ugly low scoring. I'd
rather get seven and a half. I'll take seven sharper square. Oh my god, you are coming in hot. The holiday season has you prepped to be very, very sharp and personally, I feel like this is a gift to me. I feel like all of the teachings are coming back to me tenfold right now. Totally sharp. The wise guys love
this game. You mentioned a lot to break down here, and it's worth sort of spending the time on it because it's really interesting game, because it features a Commander's team that a lot of people feel like they saw get beat in prime time against a Brock Purty led Niners team that is the hottest team in the NFL with a quarterback who people are now making all the regular comparisons you make when you've got a guy who
comes out of nowhere to do something great. That Commander's team should have won that game the other night they outplayed Giants. You know, we do this thing at Action Network called the Luck Rankings, and it categorized. It takes a lot of different sort of factors from the game, puts them all into one bucket and basically says, these teams outperformed expectations. These teams underperformed expectations based on the
plays that defy expectations. Red zone failures, random turnovers, penalty calls. Right, the Giants and the Commanders had all of those at opposite ends. The Commanders, if you play the game out according to the stats, should have won that game. Meanwhile, they're going on the road, they're playing the hottest team in the NFL. The inflation in this game is massive, right, and Kyle Shannon in this spot tends to play more conservative. He's terrible as a huge favorite. His decision making changes.
And you know who brock Purty could be Taylor Heineke, meaning he came in, he's a baller, he makes the right decisions. And then all of a sudden you get film on the guy and you're like, should we go back to Crosson Wentz? Do we wish we had Jimmy g So yeah, there is a lot of sentiment that
loves the Commanders. And one more thing to think about, strictly from a bookmaker point of view, they are begging you to bet the Commanders when you have low totals like this, and the totals about thirty eight in this game, the bookmakers are expecting a low scoring game. That's what they're telling you. Low scoring games with pretty big numbers in terms of the spread tend to play to the
underne dog. The bookmakers are giving you a couple of points here because they want they want you to bet in the Commanders because all the tickets, all the squares they're coming in on the Niners. Great call, Colin, great call. I wish the number was three. Similarly to the commanders. The numbers not ideal, but I think it's pullback time for the Lions. The Panthers defensive front is pretty interesting.
Darnold's always been better when he's pretty comfortable. Sam on the road, Sam and bad Weather get out of here. But this feels low scoring. You're getting to the point with the Lions now that the casuals that the squares are jumping in on the Lions. To this point, there are a better story than a team. Caroline is a way better team than a story. I'm going to take the home team plus two and a half sharper square. Oh my god, Colin, It's it's like you're in my head.
It's like you've been in my notes that I've been sort of collecting all day. The first thing you said is the most important thing. You like it better at three. If you can find this number at three, what I would recommend to people is you wait, because, as you noted, the public is coming in hard on the Lions. Very possible comes Sunday. This line gets back up to three. But the wise guys do like the Panthers here. The Panthers, since Sam Darnold has been playing, have just been a better,
more consistent, more predictable team. They're six against the pass in DVOA. Since week ten, their sack rate over the past six weeks has improved. You've got Jared Goff who struggles against pressure, struggles away from home when he's outside. You look at that Jets game, it's another one similar to the Commander's game. The Jets should have won that game. And if not for that fourth and inches passed to a backup tight end who scores a touchdown from fifty
five yards away. The Lions struggle to score six points on offense. So you're completely on the right side here. See if you want to get you see if you can get the three on Sunday. We're Saturday Emmy football seasons underway. Now is the perfect time to download fan Duel, America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers get a no sweat first bet up to a thousand dollars. That's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win. The promo code is always colin. FanDuel has tons of
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for confidential health in Michigan one eight seven seven h Ope n Y. Or tex Hope n Y. For six seven three six nine in New York, Tennessee redline one hundred eight nine nine seven eight nine Tennessee visit one eight hundred gamble dot in West Virginia. Okay, I like the Bears last week. I like them again plus eight and a half. With the bi Bills come off a highly emotional divisional game. It could be minus fifteen degrees
in Chicago. I think the Bears can match up in the trenches where the Bills old line outside of center is not great and their defensive lineman Ed Oliver pushed around against Miami, they ran for almost one hundred and ninety yards. Bills probably win. I think the Bears are playing hard, a lot of young players. Stuff's being put on film, new GM, new coach, They're still being graded. I would take the Bears plus eight and a half
on an ugly game. Sharper square, totally sharp. This game opened at nine and a half, it got bit down to nine, got down to eight and a half. The wise guys still like it. We've talked about this, I'd say the past three weeks, almost a month. We talked about taking the Rams as big dogs. We talked about taking I think it was against Seattle it was like eight and a half, we talked about taking the Broncos
as big dogs against the Chiefs. That covered last week, we talked about taking the Bears as big dogs against Philly. Forget about what you're seeing on the field. All your analysis is right. This is about betting, right, and sometimes betting is not about the field. It's about the number. And we've talked about this stat the past six years.
When you've got teams that have a really high winning percentage playing teams that would have a really low winning percentage, the team with the low winning percentage covers about sixty percent of the time. And the reason is because of basic gambling math. Bookmakers set a number that is really really high for the team that has been playing really really well all season long because they know the public is going to come in and bet it no matter what.
They don't care what's happening on the other side. They move the number a little bit only if the wise guys come in so hard they feel like they have to move the number because they see that they set it a little bit too high. It's going to cost them a little bit of cash. But the wise guys are the Bears. Here. I'm going to tell you a
favorite I really like. So I believe extra time with good coaches matters a lot bowl games off of buy In the NFL, I think we have ourselves a borderline football genius in Mike McDaniel, who completely out game planned and outschemed Sean McDermott time of possession shutdown. Stefon Diggs had one hundred ninety yards rushing one time of possession. They outplayed the Bills two days extra prep packers. On
Monday night. The Dolphins were five and oh against non playoff teams, Owen three against playoff teams on the road. They come back home for a non playoff team. Green Bay's not beating Miami, Minnesota and Detroit. This is a team that can't stop the run at all. I get the sharpest young which in the game two are now comfortable with a disappointing season long pass rush. I'm taking Miami and in fact, I never do this. On Blazing five thirty to seventeen, they went by two touchdowns. I
know it's square, but it's fun anyway. Sharper square all right. So I know you like to ski. I know you like to get out into the wilderness. You're skiing over your tips on this one. Okay, going going thirty to seventeen calling out a number. What are you doing? Why would you why would you give more than you have to?
The wise guys love the Packers. Okay, this game opened to five and a half, got it down to five, got that down to four and a half, got it down to four, got it down to three and a half. I will tell you three and a half seems to be the floor for this game. When it us to three and a half, the professionals come back in immediately, got that up to four. So this is about a
number situation, not what's happening on the field. The reason they like the Packers is because five and a half is a really big number for this Miami team that has struggled of late. And we talked about this probably a month ago. We saw Miami was gonna have to go on the road. They were going to have to play San Francisco, They're gonna have to play Los Angeles, They're gonna have to play Buffalo. And I think what a lot of wise guys feel is that those teams
showed a blueprint for beating Mike McDaniels. You're jamming the Dolphins receivers trying not to let them get ahead of steam and get downfield. The Packers defense is not very good, especially against the run. So what they are good at is in their defensive backfield, defending against the past. Zara Alexander made the Pro Bowl. That is a huge advantage for the Packers. That's why the wise guys started like
this team. I also feel like Theers have not been a complete offensive team this year, and you're starting to get comfortable with Watson, Romeo Dobbs coming back fair. I think that they feel this is their opportunity to get to the playoffs. I think you'll get a competitive game. I don't think it'll be a thirteen point win for the Dolphins. The wise guys like the number at anything four and above. Okay, so now I always close with
two things. First of all, there's a game I'm on I can be pushed in or out of, and it's Raiders plus three at Pittsburgh. The number on FanDuel minus two and a half three. I've said this for weeks. I think Josh McDaniel's going to get it right. I like him. There are in a lot of one possession games. My knock on him as he gets conservative sometimes with a lead, But I just don't think Pittsburgh is good enough to swallow three points. You tell me where I
should go. I'm interested in what you what side you would take. So the line has moved to two, and when I was at three, it was a pass at two. I kind of like the Steelers. I think their defense is really really good, and that's been what's keeping him alive in the second half of the season. I'm a big Kenny Pickett fan. I felt like he was a complete gamer when he came in for miss Drubisky and
got them close in games against the Jets team. Let's look at that first game he played against that Jets team. He almost had them win that game. I guess the Jets team that we clearly think is much better than we thought, right, So that's number one. Number two, he had that bye week and came back and was significantly better than he had been prior to the bye. So all of a sudden, he's getting comfortable. He was making plays for this team just as an athlete, So now
he's coming back with this defense in this weather. An emotional weekend in Pittsburgh fiftieth anniversary of immaculate reception and Frank O'Hara's dying this week. That is a town that gets behind this team. I would like to be a short home favorite against the Raiders and be the Steelers this weekend. Finally, a game that maybe gross I haven't mentioned, but you have a strong opinion at the Action Network
on it. Not really, these are roles grotesque and by the way, I bet some of these and I've done pretty well it works out. How about the New England Patriots at plus three and a half against the Cincinnati Bengals. Gross, it's gross, and listen, I have loved the Bengals all season long, loved him even more, not since not since Joe Burrow started to get more comfortable and sort of play out of the rust, but really since DJ Reader
came back, that team has just been consistently better. And I've been betting them often in spots where you normally wouldn't want to bet them. This week, the Pats are at the lowest point you're going to get them, and the Bengals are at the highest point you're going to get them. And we talk about what the wise guys look at isn't so much the final score of a game. They look at the yards per play in a game. They look at their randomness in a game. I mentioned
the luck rankings earlier. Right, the Bucks were dominating that game against the Bengals, and they had four turnovers. They were up seven team nothing in the first half. You're right, of course, of the game, the Buccaneers had more yards per play, and that's a metric that's not gross yards, right. Gross yards really indicates a team could be coming back. They gained five hundred yards because they were passing every play and the other team was running it and playing
out the clock. Right, yards per play is a really good indicator of which team sort of was more successful offensively. So you had that with the box against the Bengals. Now, Trey Henderson, he's got a broken wrist. Even if plays, he's going to be playing with the club. Sam Hubbard also on the defensive line is out and the defensive line of the reasons why I've loved back in the Bengals the past few weeks. I think there's gonna be a lot of wind in the game that potentially neutralizes
the Bengals passing attack. Wow, this is this is why you're a sharp God, this is how did I overlook this? This is why I'm a duller, a dim bulb, a square. God, It's so obvious and just right over my head. It this line moved from three and a half to three, and so I think where you got to hope for is that it goes back to three and a half because people are going to come in on the Bengals
like this is a big pros Joe's game. So getting the hook here is really important because most wise guys have this power late power rated it three year less and look, I know it. It feels like a half point doesn't mean anything, but to wise guys on a key number like three, it means everything. Look at the text it look at the Chargers and Titans game last week, like the game lands it on three. If you had the Chargers minus two and a half, you were golden.
If you had the Titans plus three and a half, you were golden. Like that, I'm key numbers like that it kind of means everything. And you know, like you pointed out for the Lions, Bengals are at the peak of the market. Peak borrow, isn't possible I could just buy my way into being a sharp because I'm not going to be able to do it based on data and takes. You can. It's called you buy the points every week. You just buy the extra half a point every single week and you're golden. Boy. That was a
good one for anybody listening. That was really good. That is why the Favorites podcast is great. That New England takes your best of the year. Honestly, well, I can't believe that everything you said. You were like a magician. I was looking over to the left with the cards and you pulled a pigeon out of your suit and I'm like, how the fuck did he do that? That was literally I'm just I am in awe. You know, a magician's good when you do it and you're like, oh,
he totally got me. I can't believe I overlooked it. What listen, It is totally gross. Like you see that. We first talked about this on The Favorites on Tuesday and we were having a conversation and it all makes sense,
but I was really uncomfortable with it. And then today when we recorded the Thursday edition, we do this thing called sharp calls, where the wise guys who were connected to will call us and react to the conversation we had, and all of them were talking about that Patriot's Bengals game, like that was the play that everybody that game, and then Dallas and the other thing we didn't talk about, which is interesting obviously, is Dallas and Philadelphia. Well, I
would take Philadelphia, that would be the side. My concern is Greg coo Sell told me on Thursday, he said, they're not going to run the same offense mostly with Gardner Minshew, and he worries about in a short week, do you just say we're not changing our offense. We're going to kind of run what we run because I think Philadelphia is clearly the better team. Co Sell also said this, It was one of his gems of the year. He said, when you watch film, Ceedee Lamb's not a
great one. Schultz is productive, not a great tight end. Gallops not the same player that Dallas's skill people because they're dallas Is are driven up in the market, but they really don't have a starting ace on the mound. Ceedee Lamb is like a great two or an average one. Dallas. By the way, Dallas is going to have to go to either San Francisco bad bad spot or at Philadelphia. We all know how this is going to end. Right now, I would take Philadelphia in the points. Is that sharp side.
It started as the sharp side, but there's been It's like talk about split. When I say like there's no consensus on a game when we're talking about the Panthers, it's because it's like you take the plus three and when it's not plus three, maybe you take the plus two and a half. But it kind of wait till it gets back to plus three. But people aren't passionate about it. There's passion on the Cowboys and the Eagles right now. And when this game was at six, people
were buying the Eagles hard at plus six. You saw it get down to five and a half. And then when Jalen Hurts was officially announced he was out. Wise guys all started talking about the Cowboys again. And I think part of it is they're looking at the injury reports right and who's practicing for the Eagles, and there's a lot of guys sitting out this week and Gardner Minshew misspractice time because of Mike Leach's funerals. So I think that from the wise guy perspective, and maybe they're
overthinking it. Are the Eagles going to take this week off if I think they're going to have to see the Cowboys in the playoffs, like you just mentioned, do they not want to show anything special? Jalen Hurts isn't going to play. They're in a a pretty good position as it relates to the conference standings. Is this a game where they're not going to not show up? But this is a rest week. So I think that's why the
wise guys started coming into the Cowboys. Yeah, that said, I bet the Eagles a plus five and a half and I'm not buying out of it, meaning I'm not going to bet the Cowboys. I'm not going to hedge it in any way. So what's the number at now? I think it's back up to six. I think when sort of it became official with Minshew, it went back up to six because some wise guys started playing. They
started playing the Cowboys. Let me sweet, six points. I would take Philadelphia, even though I think your reasoning is right. Six is too many points for that defense. Interesting, it's now down to four and a half. Yeah, now Dallas is interesting. See now Dallas is decide. Now it becomes interesting Colin. And now if it continues to move down like I've got it at five and a half the
numbers at four, I'd probably keep waiting. I would try to find a very thin middle if I can get it at three and a half, like does it continue to go down? For me? It's a wait and see if you haven't bet it yet, take Dallas at for but that's where it gets interesting. That's good, that's good. Strong all right, buddy, Chad Millman, Action Network, all right, man, listen, have a great holiday. I'll try to. You know, I haven't been sick in a long time, so everybody's getting
sick in LA. I'm just getting sick of LA. So it's the same thing to fly away. I'll see it right. Do the volume. Make sure to check out The Draymond Green Show. I brought Draymond Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports, unique perspective understands behind the rope also chops up with guests like Gary Peyton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download The Draymond Green Show wherever you get your podcasts, only on the Volume Podcast Network.