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and sixty eight hours after issuance. Se sportsbook dot DraftKings dot com, slash Basketball, terms for eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms and responsible gaming resources. Hi, everybody welcome in. It is our Friday morning podcast. Chad Milman Sharper Square. I like the lines this week. I like a lot of favorites.
You know, I was thinking about the Draymond Green situation, and I think, you know, I'm in pretty good shape for my age, in my fifties, and there are some things I wish I could do over in my life. But I don't have the you know, the relentless, boundless energy I did when I was twenty four years old, where I could go play basketball, pick up basketball, rip my ankle up, and then two days later be out playing again, have a ski accident. Next day, I'm on
the slopes. Things take longer to heal. You get into your fifties and shit breaks right. But I think the advantage to having perspective is I just don't get worked up very much and because I've seen everything seven times, like when Elon Musk took over X and Twitter. Now X and people freaked out. Take a deep breath. It's going to take six to nine months to figure it out. I don't think the user experience is quite as good as it was, but I filter out what I don't want.
It's not the end of the world. I'm not going to rush to threads and protest. That seems so juvenile and so childish to me. Take a deep breath. If you're spending that much time on X, probably need to get a life anyway. If you have strong, defiant opinions about a social media app, maybe get off the social media app. I see it all the time. With President Biden. Oh, he's the worst, the best, He's neither. He's not the
best president, he's not the worst. On the stock market's over thirty seven thousand, right, inflation down, gas prices down in most of the country, unemployments under four percent, there's a lot of manufacturing jobs that have bounced back. We're through COVID. I don't think Biden's the best president. I don't think he's the worst. Age is a concern again. I just I'm not outraged by this stuff I read. You know, when bud Light put somebody on the can,
a transgender person on a can, people freaked out. My takeaway was, well, I don't think coming off real men of genius to that was the smartest marketing plan. But I didn't lose sleep over it because I don't necessarily care who's on a can of beer. And I'm married with kids, and you know, pretty strong thriving business here at the volume, and I work on TV and radio. I think people who overreact to stuff are bored or they need attention, and there are things to get worked
up about. We know that, but I just didn't have to me very often. When I saw the Draymond Green flailing punch, my takeaway was, go YouTube Bill Lambert. You can't believe he was tackling people during the finals, not Tuesday games, Wednesday games. Dennis Rodman YouTube him, but literally didn't show up to playoff games, went to Vegas to hang out. Michael Jordan had to fly out there and
get him. Is that. I remember the nineteen seventies NBA fights empty arenas, the horrible ownership groups from Donald Sterling to Ted Stepien. I don't like what Draymond Green did and he deserved to be suspended indefinitely is fine. He'll get help deal with some counseling. His agent, Rich Paul and Clutch Sports will help him navigate that. But I know Draymond. He's a terrific employee. He's a hard worker, he's an excellent podcaster. He's thoughtful and very, very reflective,
and I've never thought he mails it in. He's been a good teammate. I think he's the second most important warrior to Steph Curry. He's been a catalyst, he's been a great teammate. There doesn't have to get along with everybody. Kobe didn't get along with everybody. Michael Jordan didn't get along with everybody. Michael Jordan punched the teammate. So it's not that I'm supporting Draymond just because he works at
the volume. My feeling is when you have perspective, and you've watched Lambert and you've watched Dennis Rodman, and you see Draymon and Lambier and Draymond are more talented, better offensive players obviously than Dennis Rodman. But it's just perspective. You know, he's not Let's take a deep breath here. He's not selling drugs to kids. He's not a shady politician, he's not selling weapons to inappropriate people. It's a sports suspension based on a very physical player who is kind
of I would call him a disruptive player. And it's sort of like hockey enforcers. Through the years, there's been a lot of hockey enforcers, and it's difficult, and it messed with a lot of guys heads and a lot of guys who are hockey enforcers protecting a great player on their hockey team. We're medicating themselves through any means
possible off an alcohol. And I think when you are Dennis or Draymond or Bill Lambier and you're kind of an enforcer that you go to the arena every night, you're going to guard the best player of your size. You're going to have to get in his head. You're going to have to be physical. It's different than going out ball handling and hitting threes. It's a big difficult
task for hockey enforcers and basketball disruptors. So I'm always a little lenient understanding that every team needs a tough guy, every team needs an enforcer, and it's really hard. It's hard to do it. Sounds like in football, not all positions are same, Not all positions, you know, require the same focus or attention. It's much easy year to be a running back in a cornerback right out of college of the pros, and it is a left tackle or
a quarterback or a signal calling Mike linebacker. There are certain positions that are just harder and they demand more from the athlete. So I think one of the things I like about being in this business a long time is I don't tend to initially overreact to stuff. When Shohei Otani signed and he deferred ninety percent of his contractor more, well, it's legal, and he did it so he can play with better players. And to manipulate the
California tax system, people all over California do that. Live sixty five sixty percent of the time in another state Florida, Nevada, Washington state no state taxes, and then live some of the time in California. Nobody had a problem with the Yankees dominating the Hot Stove League twenty years ago. In the Yes network that was making at the time four hundred million dollars had a decided advantage on every other regional or local cable network, and the Yankees bought whoever
they wanted to. Nobody was outraged by that. It was celebrated. So I think one of the things, I know a lot of people in the media, and I respect a lot of people in the media and trust a lot, but the constant overreaction to everything. A lot of people in my space pedal outrage. I don't. I think my content is smart enough and thoughtful enough that I can lay it out there. I don't have to try to gear up anybody and freak out anybody. I do not pedal outrage. I'm just not upset. Very often. I take
a deep breath, I watch what happens. I give you perspective on how it lands for me, but I don't need to. I'm not selling that now. For some people, their internet business is their business. Again. I have a TV show, I have a radio show, I have my own company. Revenue's fine. I don't need to pedal anything
for growth. Everything's growing organically. But I mean, if you're attracted to that stuff, you're probably not listening to me anyway, because I'm not selling conspiracy theory and I'm not selling outrage. Draymond Green is a basketball suspension and he's going to get right. He's been a great employee at the volume and again, incredibly reflective guy, willing to take criticism, willing
to be coached. But you know, I've seen enforcers and disruptors in sports, and it's a big lift, it's a hard ask, and there's a lot of turbulence, there's a lot of There's been a lot of great, great moments in Draymond's career. There's been some bumpy ones, and this is a bumpy one, all right. His name is Chad Millman and my friend for a long time CEO of the Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings. You know, I like theories. I like to project what I see.
Not always right, but they're interesting. So I was listening to Andrew Whitworth the other day talking to Kevin Clark about offensive line play. Is they don't ask you to block a lot, and the athletes are getting better on the defensive. So here's something that I think you have to strongly consider. So the athletes, all athletes in all
sports are getting bigger, stronger and better. Right, and defensive linemen have always been more physically gifted and athletic than offensive linemen, with the rare exception of a Trent Williams or just an elite all time left tackle. So as they get more talented, the defensive athletes and our receivers and our corners, everybody's getting better. Offensive linemen, however, are
the least athletic of all the athletes on the field. Therefore, quarterbacks are getting hit more and getting hit with more velocity and violence. Therefore, backup quarterbacks are playing at a higher percentage. Therefore, backup quarterback is a position that will never be paid a lot because of the salary cap. But if you look at what is happening in the NFL now, it is not a coincidence. Let me give you teams that have struggled with backups New England, Pittsburgh, briefly, Chicago, Seattle,
all defensive coaches. Here's teams flourishing with backup quarterbacks in they Cleveland, Atlanta doing okay, Minnesota one a game quarterback did not have a practice last year. McVeigh with Baker won with one practice. So the point being fifty to fifty five quarterbacks this point forward are going to play annually and you cannot pay a backup. There's limitations on it. Eleven or fourteen. Current playoff teams have offensive coaches, and
the bubble teams Denver the Rams have offensive coaches. Going forward, you really have to strongly consider drafting a quarterback fifth, sixth, seventh round all almost every year and realize that even if you have a legendary defensive coach Tomlin, Bellacheck, Pete Carroll, absolute limitations. A defensive coach can win with a star quarterback, but if his quarterback position is disrupted in season, bad spiraling worse. Offensive coaches have a greater sensibility cannot only win.
Flacco first start looked more than capable. And so my theory is offensive coaches have to be a higher and quarterbacks have to be drafted. Now almost annually you have to keep three on the roster. And so it's just one of my takes on one of the reasons I've done something this year in my gambling chat that I've never done. I'm taking favorites, and a lot of these bets are what quarterback do I like more and who's
his coach? So with that, one of my favorite bets this week is Cleveland minus I think it's now three against the Bears, So it's a defensive coach going to a team that's a very good defensive team at home. But I believe Flacco will make incremental growth weekly with an offensive coach, Whereas I think Justin Fields is to some degree going to be what he is. His growth has been long in a slower process. I love Cleveland minus three this week, I think Flacco will take another
leap first start to second to third. Sharper square that was last.
I'm laughing hard because I know Joe agree with everything you said about offensive coaches the importance of backup quarterbacks. I think the best example is the one that you haven't mentioned, but I know is one that you love, Kyle Shanahan. Shan has been a genius of a coach in his time in San Francisco, and it has been over the years oftentimes not just with backup offensive lineman, backup running backs, backup receivers, but with second third string quarterbacks,
quarterbacks off the street. Because I don't think anybody enjoys game planning and scheming and the chess matchup offensive football more than Kyle Shanhan. I don't think there's anybody better at it. It's why the forty nine ers always get so much respect from professional betters because they know Kyle
Shann is so good at scheming. And your point about offensive coaches is that when you have an offensive line that is going to have less athletic players, and you know you are going to have a quarterback that needs to play when he is ill prepared or not as good as a starting quarterback, you need to know how to scheme offensive plays. Agree with everything you're saying one hundred percent. You couldn't have picked a worse game the Bears and the Bird zones. To try to make your point,
you are so wrong on this side, it's frightening. The Bears are the side in this game. The Bears are the side to win this game. And I think what you're getting here is the inflation on the Browns and the value of their defense, which is very banged up right now, and you're getting how welse Kevin Stefanski has coached this team through a myriad of injuries and kept them in the hunt for the title in their division even though they are basically down to four to fifth
six stringers on their interior offensive line. The Bears. Meanwhile, since Week nine EPA per play expected points allowed per play, they're sixth in the league. The Browns twenty fifth in the league. Like, this is a defense in the Browns that is getting consistently worse and a defense in the Bears that is getting consistently better. Since they got Montes sweat, They're running defense, they're rushing defense consistently better now becoming a dominant force for them. And that might be the
only strength the Browns had. I am not buying Joe Flacco and the glorious story that happened last week against the Jaguars. That was a fluke that is not going to happen again. That was why you fade the Browns this week. And also Justin Fields. I'll tell you this right now, this is going to be the most fascinating four weeks in a generation for the Chicago Bears or Chicago Bears fans. Justin Fields is playing for a new contract in Chicago, a new coach in Chicago, if that
is what happens next year. He is playing for the next coach he plays for, if the Bears decide to trade him, whatever the case is, Justin Fields is playing for something over the next four weeks and since the buye, he has been making better decisions, faster decisions, and showing he knows how to play the quarterback much much better than we thought he did prior to his injury.
All right, let's get serious. Here are the picks. I really like my ten favorite.
You know, I appreciate you throwing that one out there. I didn't even know where you were going.
This is not the best line, but I think my favorite pick of the week was Lions minus four. It's now four and a half. I don't love that, but I think this is a tough spot for Denver. Lions are a good team. People sell them because they played poorly outdoors. One of my favorite picks of the week last week was Chicago get him back indoors. Off a humiliating loss we saw a couple of weeks ago. Them jumped out to a huge lead on the Saints. They're more than capable. Broncos have had a series of games
and travel. I think it's pretty tough. I think this just feels like a spot. You know that number. I love four fours my favorite number. I see it. I take the favorites. I like four better than minus four and a half. I think the Lions is a side sharper square.
So it was the side at four, and then it went up to four and a half, and then it went up to five, and the wise guys bought at a little bit back. I'm with you. The Lions are the right side here, right. So the Lions, they're four and two the past six games. It's not like they're in a terrible team. They've had a couple bad losses that people are remembering. One of them Green Bay, one of them to Chicago. But look in those two losses, six turnovers, two of ten on fourth downs in their
two losses. Like Dan Campbell likes to go for it. When it works, we think he's a genius. When it doesn't work, it puts them in more difficult positions. We saw it against the Bears last week. One thing I think, one thing I think is really important for them, Frank
Ragnow their center is expected to be back. I do think that's incredibly important for their rushing game with Jamier Gibbs and David Montgomery, when they are both playing well and they can provide sort of the impetus for that offense to give Jared Goff more opportunities then I think they're a much better team than the Broncos. And don't forget the Broncos. Look, they are living on fourth down luck.
They are living on turnovers plus fifteen in the turnover margin during their sort of winning streak the past few weeks. Don't forget Jared Goff, most profitable quarterback in the Dome the past twenty years. I am not ready to sell this Detroit Lions team. And I love the Broncos. I want to cash a Broncos over eight and a half season wins ticket, but I don't think this is the red spot for them. Neither do the Wise guys.
Second favorite Bett Bills minus two at home against the Cowboys, off a big division rivalry blowout win. Buffalo playing for their playoff lives. You know, we can say what we want about Buffalo. They're in close games. You know, they're not blowing people out like three years ago, where they were kind of the Mike Tyson of the league, like it was a first round knockout, or they lose late. Now they're actually in a lot of close games. I think this is still a team that will make a
dent in the playoffs. I think this home spot. Get the Cowboys in chilly weather off their spot, a little out of rhythm, Sharper square like the Bills.
Totally sharp. This is the side. A lot of inflation on the Cowboys, like they There couldn't be a higher price on betting on the Cowboys right now. And if you look at Josh Allen, look he's got the interception streak right, nine straight games with an interception. But he's carrying this team and they're starting to play a little bit better. Remember Rasille Douglas, who they traded for at the trade deadline, was replacing Tredavius White. He's a fourth
rated best cornerback according to Pro Football Focus. And don't also don't forget they had to place Matt Mlano, who was their best defensive player. It takes time for the backups to come in, get used to the scheme, get used to playing every down, get used to playing with their other teammates. This defense. While they gave up thirty seven points to the Eagles, they are improving. I think they're becoming a little bit more well rounded. I agree
with you. It's gonna be fascinating the next four weeks. They got the Cowboys, they got the Chargers. They're going to end the season with the Dolphins. Right now, the Buffalo Bills plus depending on where you look, three hundred to win the AFC East, Josh Allen twenty to one to win MVP. I know everybody's saying Dak Prescott has this MVP thing locked up. I would not be surprised if Josh Allen and the Bills run the table and they make the playoffs and he wins the AFC East.
He'll end the year with a freak load of touchdowns, possibly leave the league in touchdown passes, leave the league in total touchdowns. He might be a nice, little tasty long shot bet right now for MVP.
One of the underdogs. I like Commanders plus six and a half at the Rams. I think that game against Baltimore winner lose was a lot emotionally. It was one of the great games of the year. Rams travel East. They lose in overtime. It just I think it took a little chip out of them. I think they win the game. I get the Commanders off a bye healthy again. I think it's always an advantage when you have a buy compared to a team coming off a wildly emotional win. I think the Rams can win out and I think
they will. I think they're a really well coached team, but nobody that offense is still kind of dinged up. I mean they're really doing it off great coaching scheme and Cooper cups not fully healthy. Stafford show signs that occasionally he's grabbing something every time off the field. Tyler Higbee's not healthy. So I like the Rams to win, but six and a half is way too many points for me. Sharper square, So.
You're sharp right now. I will tell you. I'm on the Rams, and I don't really understand why the wise guy like the commanders they do. They totally do. You are completely one hundred percent like Sam Howell has had a great year. I think that the wise guys are still looking at Sam Howell from the first four to six weeks of the year and giving him a lot of credit and thinking, Okay, this is number is too big.
They're off the bi like you just said, I look at this though, and I tell you this Commander's defense is truly terrible, and they are. They're really terrible, And like they had what I call what we call like the dead cat bounce. Right So in finance when like a stock is doing terribly and all of a sudden it has a nice little blip, like a moment of clarity. Right, that's the dead cat bounce. Because it's really kind of
a crappy stock. This is a crappy team that after they traded away basically their entire defense and Chase Young and Montest sweat, they went on the road. They beat the Patriots. Everyone's like, oh, maybe this tame has a little more moxy than we thought. They've basically been blown out in every game since then, right, and so including at home by the doll They got blown out by
the Cowboys. They have looked bad. They got beat by the Giants, right, and this is when like before Tommy DeVito and like the magic of being Italian in North Jersey. So it's a bad team and their defense is the worst in the league at giving up passes of twenty yards or more. Cooper Cup I think he's playing amazing right now. What he did against the Ravens was awesome. Pooka Nakua has been final and making fantastic catches. I
don't know that anyone in Washington can guard them. And by the way, Karen Williams has been amazing since he came back from his injury.
Oh fantastic.
Like I think the Russian game can dominate against the Commander, So you are one hundred percent on the right side. I'm making an executive decision. I'm with the Rams. I don't care what the wise guys say.
Another underdog guy like Seahawks plus four Monday Night Football against Philadelphia, the move line has moved up all olives provided by DraftKings. They played a very spunky game against San Francis, Go and Dallas. These are good teams. They played them tight. And my takeaway here is we've watched on Monday Night football a very average Giants team win, Cincinnati beat Jacksonville. Monday Night football is one of the
last places home field is still three points. And I think Seattle is a desperate team that has actually lost but played pretty darn good in the last couple of weeks. And Philadelphia is reeling defensively, They're not running Jalen Hurts as much. It's an offense that hasn't solved their issues. I know we've watched three or four games in a row. They have not had a great offensive game for four
quarters this season. Seattle's tough. Wendy Rainey, I'm gonna take the Hawks plus four, Sharper square.
Yeah, sharp. You know it's interesting. Before we came on the air, you and I talked about how this has been a sort of dominant season for the public, and when you're betting on the public, you're normally betting on the favorites. The one area where that doesn't apply is primetime games. Prime time games, it has still been the right side to fade the public. Bet with the Sharps,
bet on the underdogs. So yes, the Seattle Seahawks at plus four will be the side that you'll find the wise guys on as well.
Okay, we do this every week where I want you to talk me into a game that I have strong feelings with. But I have been watching Sharps and I don't think they like it. I actually think people shouldn't sell any of their stock of Green Bay. I really like them. I think their receivers are twitchy. I think Lafleur now runs the team. It's a really fun team. It feels like a Matt Lafleur offense. I think Jordan Love has made big strides in that game against the Giants.
He had a couple of brilliant passes in the end zone. One got knocked down, one was just a foot of the receiver couldn't get his foot down before they did eventually score. I think they're playing with confidence. I think they're young. They'll bounce back. They don't know what they don't know. And it was a Monday night football game where they went in off beating the Chiefs, so they kind of got into their fields a little bit. They went it as a favorite and it's like, no, no, no, no,
that's not what you are. Now they come home. I like a minus three. Talk me into it?
Well, I don't know that I should have to work that hard to talk you into it. It's it's a really complicated matchup for the professionals. They like the Bucks at plus three and a half. At plus three, I mean at minus three you kind of lean Packers or nothing at all. You need the hook if you're going to be interested in the Bucks, and if the hook is there, you don't want to bet the Packers. I think there's still so much for Jordan Love to learn.
And you're right about the Giants. Last week. That was the smash spot that was the easiest money that we have bet all season. Never in doubt, never a concern like that was just you know, Jordan Love going on the road is nearly a touchdown favorite in prime time. You're not betting on that at this point in his career going home. I agree with you. This has been a much better coach team. The second half of the year.
He has looked much better. The challenge is that Baker Mayfield all season long has been keeping his team in games. He's playing terribly in moments of every game and keeping them in games and keeping the cover alive in every single game. It happened against the Eagles earlier in the year, and then we saw it again with the Falcons. He had played horrible and in that final drive, I think
he had five incompletions. It was like five incompletions in a few runs, and then all of a sudden, he hits Chris Godwin with a perfect tear drop pass on the sideline that gets them close to the end zone, and then he makes a perfect throw into the end zone to win that game. The beauty of Baker Mayfield is that he's always been a guy who just plays with a massive amount of courage does not care about what happened before, and I feel like that's when the
Bucks have been doing all season long. So to me, it's scary to bet against them when they're not playing a really, really good team that is just so much better than them. And I don't think the Packers are that much better than them.
Dumpster dive time. Give me a couple of games that I overlook, games that you think are interesting. I really do feel strongly about the Seahawks, the Bills, the Lions, and I don't care what you say. I like the Browns. What do you like?
Well, we can make the Browns a little side bet if you want, but I don't want to say it. I don't want to say it. But gosh, golly, gosh, darn. Can I interest you in the Carolina Panthers as three point home underdogs against the Atlanta Falcons?
Not really? What's your next one, dude?
The Carolina Panthers. The truth is they dominated against the Saints last week. I lost.
It was my losing bet.
Yeah, yeah, it shouldn't have been a game that they that they didn't cover.
So now they're at home.
They've got a lockdown corner in JC Horn they've got a dominant edge rusher in Brian Burns. I know the quarterback situation with Bryce Young, but Desmond Ritter is terrible. And so now you're putting the Atlanta Falcons on the road as favorites. They do not deserve to be anybody's favorites.
In fact, it just feels like, I guess someone's got to be a favorite in this game, and whoever was going to be the favorite was the side you wanted to bet against, And so I'm going with the Carolina Panthers. I feel like it's the exact right spot for them. I'd love for you to join me. I understand if you won't. If you want to take Cleveland, it's totally fine.
I thought it was going to be Arizona in like fourteen and a half against San Francisco, which kind of interested me.
I've thought about Arizona. These nin Ers are so good, they're playing a different game. What do they know? I think ten and zero when Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel are playing. They're winning by an average of something like I don't know, ten points a game. They covered again last week in a really difficult spot. I feel like they're a juggernaut, like they're a different team with a special coach and special personnel on both sides of the ball.
That number is huge, and of course you should bet it. The Jets number has moved down interesting considerably and a half it was it opened at nine and a half, closer to seven and a half. Now I'd still bet it at seven and a half like kind of dead numbers between nine and seven. So if you can get to seven and a.
Half against the Dolphins against.
Against it, right, it interests me quite a bit. So the other one, the other one New England Patriots And by the way, I'm sorry I made a mistake. The Jets are still in that nine range. It's the Patriots that moved from nine and a half to seven and a half against the Chiefs. Well, Patrick Mahomes as a favorite of more than a field goal just isn't very good and it's hard to cover that big of a number. So if you want to bet on that, it makes sense because it's the right side and it's what the
wise guys have done. The challenge here, do you want to bet against Patrick Mahome and Andy Reid in a scenario where they know they haven't played well offensively in a scenario where they just keep finding ways to lose these games and they're super frustrated. And I don't think they'll take the pedal off the gas or the gas the Yeah, I don't think they'll take the foot off the gas in that game. So that's a bit of a scary one. But Wise guy are definitely bad in the Patriots.
Sharper Squire, Chad Milman, Sorry for my long open, but I just feel, I.
Feel you'll never have to apologize to me for your rants. I never know where they're gonna go. I always find them entertaining. I know you thought of them deeply. I know you've got notes on your lead eagle pad. I know there's like a tree that you're looking at and this is just a branch, and yep, I'm happy to take a ride with you, brother.
Good see anybody go Bears the volume