Colin Cowherd Podcast - Derek Carr Market, Post-Lakers LeBron + ‘Sharp or Square’ NFL Week 17

kids for most of it. So we are dropping our sharp or Square segment with Chad Milman a day later. Let me give you about fifteen minutes of rants before I get to Milman Sharper Square for our bets of the week. I am, of course, always the square, so I saw as I was off a couple of days this week, Lebron James saying, and this is Lebron, always the manipulator. I don't think he wants to leave Los Angeles. His family loves it here, he loves it here. Business

is great here. But he said publicly, Hey, I'm a winner. I don't want to spend the last couple years of my career not being on a winning franchise timeout the previous five years before Lebron James came to the Los Angeles Lakers, they were tied with the Knicks for the worst winning percentage in the league. In twenty fifteen. Twenty sixteen, they had seventeen wins. He chose Los Angeles to get rich, and I defend him on that, and there are places I would love to see the Lakers move him at

the end of the year. Now Lebron's contract, he's not tradeable this year. I know. Strange as it is, he's not. I think he's a perfect fit with Luka Doncic, who has an unbelievably high usage rate that, like James Harden, will wear him down in the postseason. He's a one man offense. Those kind of offenses do not succeed in the playoffs, and Luca is two ball dominant, two usage dominant. He needs somebody to create open, easier shots. Lebron is perfect.

But next year, Lebron's a year older. I doubt Dallas is giving the Lakers a lot in return, although I still contend Lebron on his healthy, good nights with energy, is a top four or five player in the NBA. But Lebron made all these choices. He chose a d he chose Westbrook, He signed an extension Patrick Beverley that feels very much like a Lebron asking the Lakers to get Patrick Beverly move an NBA vet who's feisty. So

Lebron will say things. What he's trying to probably do is force the Laker's hand into giving up those draft picks and getting more help. But remember this is what Lebron does. He comes to a franchise, won't play with young guys. You have to go give it your draft capital to get veteran players. Get up against the kaper over it. Then when Lebron leaves, you're ft, You're screwed, You're trapped. So the Lakers have seen that had happened

in Miami, had happened in Cleveland. They don't want to become the Heat or the Calves, although both are in much better situations than the Lakers today. Derek Carr, so the Raiders decide to sit him to keep him healthy before they trade him a little bit of outraged by many people, but Car's contract allows him forty million dollars in guaranteed injury money if he got dinged up. So the Raiders don't want to write that check. They want to keep him healthy, they'll put him on the market.

We can go back and argue about how valuable or how talented Derek Carr is. I think he's a top twelve quarterback, probably eleven or twelve in that Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott area. But here's the real deciding factor. It doesn't matter what you do for a living. You could be a lawyer, you could be a teacher, you could be a quarterback, you could be a talk show host. How many people bid on you make an offer to

you when you're on the market. You know, for years and years I watched a lot of people go online and this is this is what the Internet sadly has become and criticized. Joe Buck. Joe Bucks, this Joe Bucks that I work with, Joe Buck, most talented former teammate I've ever had, most talented teammate I ever had. The minute he was available to the market, ESPN spent a fortune to bring him and Troy Aikman over. Doesn't matter what the critics think. It doesn't matter what bots think

or anonymous trolls. The minute Joe Buck was on the open market, he fetched over fifteen million dollars a year, and ESPN rebuilt their entire Monday Night football production around him. When Derek Carr goes to the market, Washington, the Jets, maybe the Texans, there's several Tampa Bay if Tom Brady bolts, which I think he will, Miami if they decide they want a healthier version of Tua. Derek Carr is almost

always available, increasingly ta is not. They'll be at least a half a dozen teams, including the Colts, the Seahawks, that will absolutely make a or an offer to get Derek Carr, regardless of what you and I think of his talent. Judge somebody by the offers they fetch when they are available to everybody. So I was watching the Huskies, the well coached Washington Huskies beat Texas in the Alamo Bowl.

And I grew up in the Pacific Northwest, and I am a Pac twelve fans, so I like watching some of these random bowl games with Pac twelve teams in them. So b Jean Robinson, the star running back, best college running back, decided not to play, and nobody really had a problem with it, and I went back and I remember Christian mccaffrean Leonard Fournett six years ago, neither playing in the national title game, opted out of their final college game. Mark Ricked, Miami coach quote, it's sad even

Kirk Herbstreet disturbing trend. These are reasonable, smart people. There's many more I could read. Those are two of the bigger names. People didn't like it at all. It became a topic, a narrative, a tipping point. And yet Bijean Robinson, as good as either to me and potentially a better pro than both, decides to sit out as mostly crickets. Why.

I've come to realize that there are certain people, and maybe it's a majority of the people, that are really reluctant to change their creatures of a habit, and change is inevitable. Not to sound like a therapist, but that's where all the growth comes from when we're uncomfortable. This is why when people react to nil or the transfer portal, I keep saying, chill out, It's all gonna be okay. Bijean Robinson and star running back should not play in

the Alamo Bowl. Twenty carries twenty hits. Why would you risk possibly fifty to seventy five million dollars one hundred million dollars of career earnings for the Alamo Bowl Transfer portal. Nil sitting out Bowl games. It's okay. These are young business people, they're leaving college. It's their first job. As long as they're not playing for the national championship, I don't have any problem with it. That would feel a little selfish, a little, but in this case, in most cases,

I get it all right. It's time for Sharper Square, where I lean on Chad Millman CCO Action Network to help me figure out and decipher good bets from bad bets. I mean, all bets are good bets. They're on and all my fandel. I mean they make games fun. I'm betting on stupid Bowl games. Of course they're fun. I always give you three or four I really like, and then you guide me through it. Then I ask you for advice in a game I want to bet. You often talk me into it, and then I ask you

what did I miss? So let's start with a couple I like. I like the Jets as a slight favorite against Seattle. Seattle is reeling. They're not running the football when any quarterback the last two years, not name Zach Wilson takes the helm for the Jets. They pass for over three hundred and ten yards a game. I think this is a really really interesting roster. I think Mike White is capable. I'm going to take the Jets minus

one and a half sharper square. Well, it's sharp. It's so sharp that the line has moved from one and a half to two and a half because the wise guy money has been coming in. At this point in a year, when you're handicapping games and trying to think about individual teams, you're trying to figure out is the team that we've been watching for the past six seven weeks good if they're playing well, terrible if they're playing badly, or is there going to be some kind of regression rights.

As betters, we're always trying to ride the wave and predict regression. A team going to be, you know, better than it's been playing or worse than it's been playing. I think wise guys right now feel like what you're seeing with the Seahawks the past four or five weeks. Inability to run the ball. Defense can't stop anybody. Geno Smith being exposed for being for the reasons why he's

been a backup for seven years. And the Jets, meanwhile, are a team that continues to play well because they've got a top five defense and their top five like front line, linebacker, secondary, and the only reason why they can't compete in some games is because of Zack Wilson. And it's a testament. It's really about how bad Zach Wilson is. That you get Mike White in there and people are like, this is a Super Bowl contending team, and in reality, it's Mike White Who's still Mike White.

He's just so much better because he can actually complete a pass, so you're on the right side. It's an interesting game to handicap just because of the Seahawks troubles, but the wise guys like the Jets. So speaking of growth and throughout the season, I never thought Christian Watson would matter in a pick. But if he does not play, Green Bay is a completely bbgun offense and I like Minnesota plus three. If he does play, it's probably a push.

But he's become a wildly important part, really the only part to their vertical passing game. He's a fifty fifty I'm gonna take Minnesota plus three here Sharper Square totally. It's interesting. You know, we do that sharp Call segment on the favorites me and Simon Hunter professional Better, So I'll explain it for people who don't who don't listen to this segment. Every week, we'll do two podcasts a week. On Tuesday, we talk about the games we like on Thursday.

By Thursday, we have gotten calls from other professional betters in the community telling us what they think of the games we're talking about, and sometimes they're affirming our decisions. Sometimes they were against our decisions. There were two games that popped this week. I think we're going to talk about both of them. This is one of them. Completely split some wise. Guys love the Packers. Some guys like the Vikings at three and a half because they were

getting the hook and we saw that line move. It was at three and a half it went down to three. So I feel there's not a consensus here. If you like the Packers, you're probably on the right side with some professional betters. I think what people are thinking is it's a little bit about that wave. The Packers have been ascending and because of Christian Watson, because their offense has been playing much better with Aaron Rodgers and sort

of understanding what those receivers can do. They've been getting a little bit healthier on offense. They've got a very good defensive secondary. And I think like the biggest difference here with the Vikings is their luckiness has been factored into the line and that's why if it's at three, the wise guys don't like it. At three and a half, they do. I will tell you we've talked about this

in the past. We've got this metric called the luck rankings at Action Network that basically is able to quantify regression and the differentials and luck rankings between the two teams. When it's sixteen or more, the team that is less lucky covers sixty two percent of the time. This is the biggest luck differential of the week, so and it's in favor of the Packers. So I think that's giving some of us a little bit of pause for going all in and the Vikings. By the way, you mentioned

betting is fun. This is when Bud betting his heart. When you have Christian Watson over fifty and a half receiving yards and he gets forty nine in the first half, and I'm the last catch of the first half that he makes, he's knocked out of the game. That's when you're standing in front of the TV and you're like, I don't see him on the field when the Packers have the ball to start the series in the second half.

This is terrible. Yeah, happens all the time. So since week seven, if you've watched Patriot games, they have no offense, the play calling, no vertical element. They now turn it over more protections, hit and miss. I still like Miami's personnel and Tua won't play, but Bridgewaters are reasonable facsimile. I'm gonna take two and a half points. It just feels like the right side they match up very well. They've got more juice. I saw him play at ball

flow and outplay the Bills. I take Miami plus the point Sharper square. Yeah, that's totally sharp. And what's really interesting here, and I imagine we'll talk about this with another game. Qbs are obviously the most important factor against the spread, and if you're one of the top tier qbs, you're anywhere worth seven points to ten points against the spread. Tom Brady at his peak, Aaron Rodgers at his peak, was considered to be seven to ten points against the spread,

and it quantifies two things. It quantifies how good you are as a quarterback, but also the delta between you and your backup. And I think what you're seeing here is the market responding to Teddy Bridgewater playing Teddy Bridgewater. And I'm not exaggerating here. Greatest against the spread record of any quarterback the past twenty years, So there's going to be a sentiment that the Dolphins are still going to be the side you want to take. It's why this line has been sitting at two and a half

and it hasn't moved to three. Part of it is because nobody's got any faith in the Patriots offense. And part of it is because they know that Teddy Bridgewater can come in and do a lot of the things that they need him to do to keep the game close. Football seasons underway, now is the perfect time to download fan Duel, America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers get a no sweat first bet up to a thousand dollars. That's free bets back if your first bet

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Y f for six seven three six nine in New York, Tennessee Redline one hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine Tennessee visits one eight hundred gamble dot in West Virginia. So um. Josh McDaniels is a very good play caller and I think play designer, but his opinion on quarterbacks is interesting. At one point, Belichick was ready to move off Brady for Garmpolo. Obviously, Bill went to McDaniel for his opinion, probably emboldened empower because Bill was over Tommy

and McDaniel like Garoppolo. We know he's now limited. Josh McDaniel also loved Tim Tebow, nobody else in the world did as a first round pick. Josh McDaniel likes Jared Stidham, who has a fifty two percent completion percentage in his career. In the preseason was at sixty two. But it's deceiving because we live in an era now. Last two years, no starters play in the preseason. It is mostly second

third teamers and scout teamers. That's a bad percentage. I'm going to take San Francisco minus nine and a half. It makes me sick. I don't know how the Raiders move the ball. I don't understand it. Battle line Stidham's not mobile, I don't get it. I'm taking the Niners. Sharper square. You hit him something really interesting. It's a square play, but you hit on something really interesting, which is people who have had success in whatever capacity in

which they need to coach somebody up. Could be a media executive, which you are now, which I have been for a while, could be an NFL coach, could be an NBA coach. You see something in someone once you see it in practice, so you see them execute well, you see them write a line that you love. You hear a segment of theirs on a podcast or on a radio show, and you're like, that person's got it, and you will believe in that long past the time

when they've proven they don't have it. And it's very possible that in these instances Josh McDaniels just believes I'm so good at what I do, I into it. I can impart all of that information into the person who can be robotic if they just do what I tell them to do, it's going to be perfect. So I was talking about the delta in against the spread value for quarterbacks before the season began. We ranked all this at Action Network. The delta between Derek Carr and Jared's

did him was about six points. So let's say you downgrade car because he's underperformed a little bit this year. So let's say it's four points, right, So then that's how you get from five and a half, which is what this line was in favor of the Niners before the news about Derek Carr, to nine and a half.

So I will tell you right now, when it got to nine and a half, professional betters started bet on the Raiders, and you can see in some places, not everywhere, but in some places this line has moved to nine. But you always say you don't want to bet games like this. I'd probably have to take the Raiders here, but I'd hold my nose and then I think there's better options on the board. Finally, Bengals at home, probably one of the three biggest football games in Cincinnati in

a decade. They're the more efficient team, they have, the better protection for their quarterback, the more consistent run game. What concerns me about Buffalo. They bail on the run, their protection spotty. As Greg Kosell told me this week, Josh Allen's taking off now sooner than he has to, and they're very prone to mistakes in key red zone situations. I think Cincinnati is the best team in the league, and I'm going to take him at home plus one and a half. Not that I'm a seller on Buffalo.

This is a playoff level intensity that this crowd this moment, Cincinnati Monday night football. Nobody puts Cincinnati on Monday Night football. I think it's going to be an overwhelming presence, and I'm going to take the team I think will make fewer mistakes and potentially a shootout. I said at the beginning of this segment we were going to refer back to a couple of different ideas right one was against the spread value from quarterbacks. The other was sharp calls.

This was the second most called about game, and it was pretty unanimous. The wise guys were on Buffalo, and it's pretty interesting. I think there's a couple of different things in play here. One, the Bengals are without their best offensive lineman, which is a really big deal. As good as Joe Burrow is against the Blitz, against pass rush pressure. They're still downe their best offensive lineman. We saw last week, and you and I talked about this.

The defensive line has been the key to the resurgence for the Bengals the past say, six, seven, eight weeks. They're a little bit banged up, in fact, significantly banged up on the defensive line. That plays to the strength the strength of the Bills. It might allow Josh Allen to have a little bit more time, but also is going to leave gaping holes for him to do what he really does best, which is finding open lanes in

which to run. And I also think the Bills have not played great this year, but you've seen them dominate late in the game, not because the other teams are making mistakes. They're dominating late of the game against really scrappy teams. They did it against the Browns who were staying close. They did it against the Bears who were staying close. They did eke out that win against the Dolphins, and really weird circumstances. They did eke out that win

against the Lions on Thanksgiving. It really weird circumstances. So to me, the Bengals are often winning because the other teams are making so many mistakes. Right. We saw it with the Bucks. Four turnovers, they come back from seventeen down. We saw it last week. To talk about betting, isn't any fun. I love the Patriots at three and a half. They lose by four. They missed two extra points. They fumbled the ball in the five yard line with the chance to go ahead with a minute left. Right, So

the Bengals aren't winning because they're dominating. The Bengals are winning because other teams are making mistakes. The Bills are winning because they're playing the best at the end of the game. All right, Now, I go to the What would You Do? Game that I strongly considered brown to the Commander's Cleveland getting points. I refuse to watch the Browns because of their quarterback and the egregious claims against him by twenty four twenty five, and I'm just turned

off completely by that franchise. But as a number against the Commanders, I do think Taylor Heineke. We've got a lot of film and there's real limitations. And I think Sean Watson, who I was never a huge fan of as a pure passer, it's got a little more to work with here. I just feel like Cleveland's the better team. They'll win this game. It feels like a sharp play. What would you do on this? I didn't include it, but what would you do? I would play the Browns.

I'm still debating it. Sometimes a lot of times when I'm thinking about the games that I want to play, and I've got a list of games that I'm considering, I'm waiting to see which way the market goes and if i can get a better number. So right now, the Browns they're a plus two and a half. The wise Guys like the Browns. I was kind of hoping to get it at three. It's actually moving in the other directions. So you're seeing the wise Guys coming in on the Browns right now. I think there's a lot

of sentiment that just a agrees with you. There's a little bit too much weaponry for what Deshaun Watson can do. They're banking on literally banking on him getting a little bit better. But there's also a lot of research and a lot of data, and this applies to a few games this week of which I'd love to try to convince you. When you were a team that is out of contention playing a team that has an opportunity, you back the team that is out of contention. It's not

what people would normally expect. And I think that's why you end up getting the point spread value in a game like Cleveland is because there is a lot a lot of precedent for backing the team that's out of contention. Finally, what did I miss? Chad Melman? Action Network? Oh my god? Where to begin? Do we want to talk about the Bears plus six? Do we want to talk about the Colts plus five and a half? Got up? Oh? I can tell then a half against the Kansas City Chiefs.

That's not even a corner TV game. That is a corner at the neighbor's house. I can see it through the window. Game. I can't watch Denver games. I just just so discouraging. Look, look, I think I am going to bet the Broncos. It's one of those games where I'm kind of just hoping it's a twelve and a half right now. It might end up being one of my biggest bets of the week. And I'm honestly just going to wait until Sunday, late afternoon, late early games

are ending, people are feeling flush. They go in and they pound the chiefs, and this line gets back up to thirteen or even higher. You know, like in the afternoon. They call that chasing a little bit. You get a lot of chasing on Sunday night games people won or they lost, they're trying to win back some money. They do it on Sunday night, they do it on Monday night.

They do it on the afternoon games too. So look, I've just said, over the past thirty two years, colin thirty two years eliminated teams in the final two weeks of the season, playing teams that are much much better than them, so huge sort of win wind differentials. They're covering it a sixty two percent clip. Okay, let me give you some more and this I'll make it as simple as possible. The Broncos are coming off a terrible loss. Past twenty years, teams coming off a terrible loss thirty

five or more covered a seventy percent clip. And these are not small sample sizes. I'm not throwing at you like you know, going back to the dark ages. These are legitimate sample sizes. So you know it's gonna be hard for me not to back the Broncos and I'd like you to join me camp. Listen, there's there's always a friend that offers you to go on a road trip and you pass. You know, as Jerry Jones would say,

El Paso, that was his line. Michael Irvin once said this is what I want and split a paper across and Jerry Jones said, one of my favorite cities and one of my favorite expressions, Michael is el Paso on a pass on that contract. Yeah, it's an interesting week. I just don't take big numbers. The Niners thing. One of the things that really interests me. Just as a broadcaster. I'm always fascinated by what's next. You know, I don't talk regular season baseball. I don't romanticize sports. It just

doesn't appeal to me. There's a lot of hosts that love it. I get it. I'm not bothered by it. It's not me. And preseason quarterback numbers, now they were always a little sketchy. I look at them now. If you're average in preseason, you're bad. Because Sean McVay, over the last six years, there are no more starters Week three, so we're down to three games and a lot of times it's just scout guys and fourth stringers. So I look at that Stidham preseason number and I'm like, god,

sixty two percent preseason. That's and by the way, he knows McDaniel's offense from New England. I know. But this is when look the the needle you're always trying to thread as a better is an obnoxious number versus bad players, And what is the public going to be thinking? What is the threshold that makes you uncomfortable? And then betting

on that. Betting is doing bad things. Betting is doing things that make you uncomfortable, right, It's why, It's why I've been on the show and I said, the Rams are eight point eight and a half point underdogs to Seahawks, we got to take them. The Bears are huge underdogs of the Eagles, we got to take them. Bronchos are huge underdogs the Chiefs two or three weeks ago. We gotta take them. It's just what you gotta do. And like, look, the truth is, if it's working out sixty percent of

the time, that's a massive number. You just got to win fifty three percent of the time and you're profiting like you're one of the best betters in the world. So sometimes it's not going to work out, but that's what you gotta do. Blazing five is on Friday. I've always argued I try to hit fifty five percent a year. I'm on that pace. If it was on Monday, I think I'd hit fifty seven percent. I'll never be a pro better. But that's the difference between making a little

scratch and losing money. So I tell people who say, oh, you missed on Blazing five, I'm getting the worst number. Almost always, I'm getting absolutely a terrible number. Like, for instance, you know Niners Raiders was much better number earlier in the week, and then all of a sudden, you know the Derek car thing, and yeah, it's hard, It's really hard. And look we joked about it with Christian Watson. Those half points, those half yards they matter. Just look at

this past weekend. The Eagles opened it six as six point underdogs against the Cowboys, went down to five and a half. I betted at five and a half. The Eagles were up by ten in that game. Twice, they had the ball twice in the final five minutes, turned it over twice, They gave up a third and thirty They lost that game by six. I mentioned the Bengals, I mean the Patriots against the Bengals. They were three and a half point underdogs. I betted at three and

a half. They lost by four on some flukey fluky place. It goes the other way too. You only remember the times when it's terrible, but the times that when it's terrible really hurt quite a bit. And that's when you remember I really should get the best of their number. Best to you and your fan, Chad Millman. Action Network odds provided by a fan. Happy Holidays, Buddy, Happy New Year, my friend the Volume. Make sure to check out The

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