The volume, Hi everybody, and welcome in my guy, John Middlecoff from the volume former NFL Scout three and out. It's gonna stop by for a good thirty minutes. I'm going to be joining John. John's going to be joining me Sunday nights during the football season. It'll be out Sunday night on YouTube Monday morning on our podcast. So I can't wait for that. A few minutes before we start Hall of Fame game tonight, Zach Wilson, not Aaron Rodgers,
will get a play for the Jets. I kind of feel like first round quarterback picks fall into three categories. The first is the most ideal. You got yourself a star Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, And in most cases you can ident even if they're not playing Mahomes, even if they've got some growth needed Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson. So that's ideal. We know who those guys are. Trevor Lawrence bad first year, you knew
he was a star. The second one is he's not going to be a franchise quarterback for us, but can we salvage the first round pick? Show him off. The third is we got to miss. So I think Trey Lance and Zach Wilson are both in category two. I don't think Trey Lance will ever be the starting quarterback answer for the Niners, nor will Zach Wilson ever be the starting quarterback answer for the Jets. I think Aaron's around for two or three years. I think they're both
in the salvage stage and the showoff stage. If I was the Niners, I would play Trey Lance a ton in the preseason, and I would set him up for success. I'd use a couple of starting offensive linemen, use some of your starters briefly or top backups. Make him look good, get a fourth round pick. I've been watching this league forever, so of you, there's always seven teams, six teams, eight teams at the bottom that by the trade deadline can use a quarterback, especially a young one. I think Zach
Wilson's in the same spot. He'll never be the franchise quarterback, size, style, lack of self awareness. He's got what Lance doesn't, a world class arm, but I think Trey is probably a more mature guy. So if I was the Jets, I would play Zach Wilson every available snap. I think Zach Wilson has the talent in the arm. It fooled Joe Douglas and many others. Somebody will give him a run,
especially a team at the trade deadline. Maybe that's off to like a three and three start, and they're looking at it thinking, listen, the GM and the coach may get fired if they don't make the playoff. You find a team that says, we got to go for it. I think it's very possible you could move Zach Wilson at the trade deadline. He's had moments and games that have been impressive. Trey Lance really necessarily hasn't, so I
think you have to take a flyer on him. But Tray's a good guy, quick learner, big body, moves well. Salva Jim So. I think for Trey Lance and Zach Wilson. I thought last year's biggest story in the preseason at quarterback was Kenny Pickett, and by the end of the year I was impressed with Kenny Pickett. I think Trey Lanson, Zach Wilson. I'm interested to watch their preseasons. Sean McVay changed preseason for the best or worst, depending on how
you look at it. Nobody plays their stars, nobody plays their starters. But I think Trey LANs and Zach Wilson are really interesting stories. Maybe not traded now, but they're in the salvage stage. Somebody's going to probably by the trade deadline, a three and three team loses a starter. I can see somebody rolling the dice. I mean, let's be honest. If you've quarterback with Kyle Shanahan, a lot of people will say, man, you bring all that intellectual
offensive capital to our franchise. You could sell that. You could sell that to a coach. All right, let's bring in John Middlecoff three and out.
Colin Pads are a poppin football. It's kind of unofficially here preseason games. But week one we're almost a month away from that. That Thursday Night doozy of Dan Campbell versus Andy Reid.
Yeah, I wouldn't want to be Dan Campbell. Andy's been the best September coach in football. You know, I thought there was something interesting so Andy all off season has been saying we're gonna put more on Patrick Mahomes plate. Okay, we're gonna put more on his plate. The Chargers get Kellen Moore inside the building. The feeling is with with Lombardi. They weren't they weren't giving him enough on his plate.
Kellen Moore is gonna put more on his plate. I read a quote today about Dak Prescott where they're trying to make the Cowboy offense Dak friendly take more off his plate. And my takeaway on that, John, you're a scout in this league is time out the great Ones, the Mannings, the Mahomes. You just keep throwing layers of stuff at him, Dak, They're pulling stuff off the table.
I hate the sound of that. So Schottenheimer's a conservative OC Mike tends to be a conservative OC seven to twelve and in one in his last twenty games play calling that was one of those. Doesn't sound like much. Didn't love the comment by Dallas.
I would say this, Colin, just because you pay a guy a premium doesn't mean he's a premium player. And once Dak got that forty million dollars a year contract didn't change his limitations. I would though the last two years, the Cowboys have lost right in two years ago in the first round, in this year in the second round to the forty nine ers, and I think they started seeing themselves we're a defensive team because we could hang with their physicality, and last year they did. They went
blow for blow. It was like to Mike Tyson's hitting each other. It was the most physical game of the playoffs. But they lost because Dak did what Kyle Shanahan never allows his quarterback to do for the most part is ruin the game. He threw the picks. So you always had the stat when Zeke before he fell off a cliff, was like, run the ball. Don't get too pass happy with Dak. That's when he, you know, kind of turns
into a more of an average quarterback. If you can keep him probably in the high twenties attempts, you got a chance. Especially with how good their defense is. And I would say that their defensive coordinator has turned in right there with Vic Fangio right as just their defensive personnel as one of the betters in the league. So they can play a game that most teams can't because
most teams don't have very good defenses. So if you don't turn the ball over like I think, I'm going to pick the Cowboys to win the division, and not because I think Dak Prescott is better than Jalen. I just think they have like they kind of know who they are for the first time in a long time. With the Cowboys, they're always kind of fighting one side of the other and they don't have a clear identity.
I think they do have an identity now. And if to me, it just comes down to Dak Prescott and not turning the ball over, because if he doesn't turn the ball over against the forty nine Ers, the forty nine ers lose that game.
Well, there's a number, I don't have it in front of me. With Dak Prescott, he wins almost eighty percent of his starts when he doesn't have a turnover, which is not abnormal for many quarterbacks. But what happens when he has just one or more he wins like thirty percent of his games. Is that it's like Lebron James. Lebron James could have a bad shooting night and still be the most impactful player on the floor because he does so many things. Well, Dak's not talented enough to
overcome a turnover. He's just not. Brady has won Super Bowls with pick sixes. Right man. The Mannings have had a high interception years, Farve huge interception years and they win the division. Dak the margins are tight. It's a little mac Jones, it's a little Kirk Cousins. Trevor brings down the wind total. Well, it's where Matt Stafford is.
I think sometimes talked about not in that top five to six, but in that next crew guys. His physical attributes and talent is far superior from kind of that group. Right he because he's going to turn the ball over, but at any moment, he could throw four touchdowns in a half. He can stretch the field in one play, throw the ball, you know, forty fifty plus yards with his eyes closed. It's why you remember a couple of years ago when the Warriors, I think they won fifteen games.
Steph got hurt, Clay got hurt, Kevin had just left and they just fell apart. I know, you know you're down in LA. You're close to the Rams. Cooper Cup already injured. They are very dependent on like three guys, and if those three guys are healthy, they can be competitive because they got a really good coach. I think the Rams have a better chance of competing for Caleb Williams than they do a playoff spot. I think they're going to be really bad because I just think it's inevitable.
Their players are a little older now, Stafford with the elbow. How often we see it all the time in baseball players. Once the al ball starts getting messed up, it kind of goes. We saw in Roethlisberger the elbow never the same. So Stafford's Cooper Cup now injured last year, injured again. Now Aaron Donald, all time great player, but he can only do so much. We've seen great defensive players on shitty teams. I mean, JJ Watt's been a great player
on bat You can't This isn't the NBA. So to me, the Rams, their margin freer is so thin, just with the depth of their team, and we're already seeing the injuries happen. And last year it happened and they were god awful. They just happened to not have their pick. I don't see why they think about the division. We know Seattle's going to be really competitive. Obviously the forty nine ers are good. Even if Arizona stinks. They play the NFC East, so you get three playoff teams in
Washington's feisty and they played the AFC North. So you're getting the Steelers, the Ravens, I mean, the Browns, even if they're not a playoff team, have a lot of talent. And then obviously what team the Bengals. So I mean, he's got a really really good yea, that's a lot. That's a tough schedule.
So I came out and said I had a very good source, So did Jason McIntyre that we heard the Rams tried to restructure the Matt Stafford contact contract. I was shocked when a member of the executive team for the Rams came out and made a point of Times La Times article saying this is not true. These reported taking a shot at me. Two days later, Matt Stafford announces, yeah, we tried to restructure my deal in the off season.
The Rams are trying to fool us. They had discussions, they wanted to restructure the deal, they couldn't and had to move off people they like Matt. But Bucky Brooks told me yesterday, and I've heard this, if Matt gets banged up, they're drafting a quarterback with a first pick. They know how good this draft is. They look three years ahead of time, and the feeling is this is the best draft in a four year window. The best quarterback draft next year. Last year wasn't good, the following
year after is not great. So you get about two great quarterback drafts every decade. Like four first round guys next year is that draft. And there's a belief even if Stafford plays pretty well and they're like a seven to eight win team, they'll be four guys. They'll be able to get a Quinn yours, a Michael Pennix junior at like twelve or thirteen or fifteen in the draft.
So I think the Rams. You know, if you go like and look at Kansas City last year, they had a star offensive coach, a star quarterback, a good enough O line, one star weapon, great defensive player, good linebacker, and kids everywhere. That's a little Rams ish Ernest Jones,
Aaron Donald, Cooper Cup, Matt Stafford. The difference, is h McVeigh, is that the Chiefs players are all in their prime, and to your point, the Rams star players are all coming off injuries, so I do think their margins are thin. I'm just fascinated to watch Matt Stafford because he took a lot of hits in Detroit. He just rented a gorgeous house on the beach in Los Angeles, and the feeling is last year or two in LA. He wants to have some fun. He knows it's not going to last forever.
Can I Sometimes it's unfair, right when a social clip comes out of your show. I didn't see the whole take, but you've had you nailed the Baker Mayfield thing from the start. You had to take. He's in part of probably the most irrelevant quarterback competition in the history of the league right now in Jaipa. I mean, absolutely no one cares. And you, I think you came out and said, you know, he should higher. Yeah, because he's got he's
head right to college football and be a star. I think that's kind of crazy just because he's making four million dollars. He wouldn't make four million dollars right away on TV. And he's got a chance if he can do this for a couple more years, but clearly he's headed toward and overall, and think about college football. I never saw kerkurbs street throw pass. I don't remember a clap pass. And Matt Lioner, who I think is really good, obviously had a very very you know, underwhelming NFL career
right for his college status, I think Baker. But clearly Baker's career is headed nowhere fast. And this Tampa team, I mean, they're definitely circling the Caleb wagons, right. They want a big part of that. It's I guess there's twofold were you being dead serious on that? The retirement? And two have you ever nailed to take harder than? Because I think the Johnny Manziel a lot of people Baker was a guy number one overall.
Yeah, I was wrong.
Because I thought it really taught me over the last couple of years. I thought he could be Drew Brees. Well, a huge part of Drew Brees was the character and the intangibles. And look at all the star quarterbacks. Now, the intangibles are have to be off the charts even for the average guys. We'll let alone the stars.
Well, you know, first of all, NFL scouts liked Sam Darnold too, so I missed on Donald. I think Johnny Manziel I neeled Baker. I neeled I didn't like Zach Wilson at all. I said he was going to be a boss. You didn't, so, but I like Sam Darnald and I still think if Donald got competent coaching and started in San Francisco, he could be a playoff quarterback. But he does have a slower delivery, and he tends to be a hero ball quarterback. He was at USC
and he's not that athletic. He's athletic, he's not Josh. He's like a poor man's Josh Allen. Athletically, he's big strong, He's not that big and strong. I was being serious. My takeaway is there are people that aren't built to be backups. Cam Newton, Baker, Mayfield, Tim Tebow. They're too big, too many commercials. They're too big. You want Colt McCoy, you want Tyrod Taylor. Baker is too big to be a backup. So if he loses to Kyle Trask, he's still got a chip on his shoulder a mile long.
Last week, he was quoted saying in front of a camera, I don't need anybody to tell me how to play quarterback. It's who he is. So he's too big of a personality, too much edge to be a backup, right. I always said a backup quarterback should be able to put a baseball hat on in a mall in dark sunglasses and be unnoticeable. Colt McCoy melt Tebow can't do that. Cam
can't do that, and Baker can't do that. Secondly, he's making four million a year, but to be a top analyst at a football network, you'd make about two two and a half. And the truth is you don't want to become a punchline. And if Baker plays for two or three more years and this year goes you know, starts and goes one to eight and gets hurt and by the way, he's led the NFL in interception since
he entered the league two and eight last year. If he went owen six this year and that means he went two and fourteen and his last sixteen NFL starts, he becomes a complete utter punchline. Sam Darnold failed, Baker failed. They're not punchlines like people still like Sam and Baker got to a playoff. So my takeaway is protect your brand. Also, money's not that big for him because he took every
available penny with all those insurance commercials. So if I was his agent, I'd be like, dude, if you lose the job to Kyle Trask. They're trying to lose privately in Tampa, you get to one in five, John, they're moving pieces at the trade deadline. They've got players, yeah for sure. Now yeah they Arizona may not do that because if Kyler Murray comes back in week six, they
don't want to bail on him and get him hurt. Right, They don't want him to get hurt because even if they were moving off him, hard to trade him if he's injury plagued. If they lose their first four in Tampa, I mean that front office they're playing Trask. Baker couldn't beat out Trask. They're moving pieces. Guys can get hurt. So I'm dead serious. I would say, if you can't
beat out Kyle, I'd retire. I'd call the networks, take a year off practice, go to these companies, say I want to get good at this and go be a rock star.
I'm in agreement on the backup quarterback. You get too famous. I also think that happens sometimes when you're a former, really really high pick in a short period of time. Right, Zach Wilson would fall under that. But Aaron is such a star, he's already irrelevant. No one cares. That's where Trey Lance is kind of interesting, right because you have brock Party, who was mister irrelevant, and even Sam Darnold's making three million dollars. Well, brock Perty's the starter, and
I'm a big believer. And they still got a lot of camp left, they got some joint practices and like you said, the preseason games, I would imagine Trey's gonna get a lot of juice and maybe clearly he's improved his mechanics a little bit, but through a bad pick today at practice, you never know. It's a fluid situation. I'm a believer that Sam's going to win the job because Kyle had already had that in his mind coming
into the year. It's why they convinced Sam, who had other opportunities to come to a place with like ten quarterbacks. He didn't mis randomly come. So is Trey Lance, And it's not his fault. He makes nine million dollars, that's his draft slot. But there's can't be it. There's not going to be a team in the NFL that's gonna have a nine million dollars third string quarterback. But the forty nine ers have had all these quarterback injuries that they probably just roll with it, and he's a high
character guy, so they're not really worried about that. But it is a bizarre situation. It really is for a team that, let's face it, has kind of one goal in mind, and that's, you know, to get to the big dance and win the thing. I mean, they're not Anthony Richardson's plant. They don't care if they They're just going to try to figure it out.
Right.
You see a lot of these young quarters that is not what the Niners are in. They're in win now mode and win big.
There are a lot of these young coaches, McVeigh and Shanahan among them. They kind of want you to do what they tell you to do. Like they both love Kirk Cousins. McVeigh and Shanahan both love Kirk Cousins. Lamar Jackson's a great athlete. Josh Allen's a great athlete. I mean, you take Josh Allen. But the takeaway is a lot of these young coaches. Andy Reid is different. Andy Reid wanted Michael Vick, Andy Reid wanted Mahome. Andy wants playmakers.
That's why he's the great coach. But a lot of these young coaches just want somebody Bill Walsh had this, who can simply deliver on my play call? Sean Payton's a lot like that. Russell Wilson's going to be a challenge for Sean Payton. He's done. He's trying to mold Russell. Russell would rather go Deep Breeze. Didn't throw Deep Breeze was eighteen yards and in So the play design and the play golf by Sean Payton was essential. Russell will run out of the play call. He'll run out of
the play design. So that's a really interesting situation, Sean Payton, McVeigh, Shanahan. They kind of like you to do what they say. And you know, you know this, whatever gift God gives you a great singing voice, you're going to use it in the shower, in your car, in a chorus. If God gives you a great arm, Josh, you're gonna use it far big interceptions, name it big interceptions, Bradshaw and so I kind of think McVeigh. I think Stafford mostly does what Sean wants, but he drives Sean crazy with
the picks ad libbing. He wasn't as athletic. I was told very early. They established he wasn't as athletic as they thought. It was evident right, but they were okay with that. So their takeaway he was kind of a physical runner, not nimble and twitchy. But I was told Kyle was okay with that. I don't need too much twitch. By the end of the first camp, they were like, man, we got a throwing issue. So what happens with Trey is not only isn't he athletic enough, but he doesn't
give you the distribution excellence, so it doesn't work. Now Darnold is a little more athletic than Trey can struggle with distribution. Pretty isn't that athletic great at distribution? And they both love Kirk cousins mcvahan and Shanahan. So you can see the model here. A lot of these young coaches, John, you know this, you scouted. Some of these coaches want you to run their play. That's what they want. Well, see,
Andy is much more it's weird offensive lineman. When you think of him, tend to be just like conservative, tough guys.
He's really more of a free spirit, let it flow and it comes back. He was taught in the early eighties at the BYU program. It was well ahead of its time throwing the ball all the time, and then his NFL stardom came with Brett farf Right, the ultimate freelance gunslinger. So a lot of coaches the Shanahan Tree was all raised in. It's a lot of boot and play actions, dumping the ball off to a guy five feet in front of you. So I just now, eventually,
it's the NFL. You got to hurt, you have to hit a third and ten, But there is a lot of first and tent of a little flick to Debo or to Christian McCaffrey that if you put it at his feet, it's a disaster because that's an easy thirteen yards. And that's where I think came in and immediately did that, and it was almost like they became BFFs immediately because
that is what he's really looking for. Right. Most quarterbacks in the NFL can throw the ball fifty yards, right, but that's not the majority of the game is not deep bombs. And that to me is the most fascinating part about all this quarterback Like what makes Mahomes really special. Obviously he's instinctive and the physical attributes. The guy is very, very accurate when he has to be and he's very
very football smart. So Andy's always said this about even when Tyreek Hill was on the team, is I could tell him to do whatever I need to do when
he pick it up like that. You know, we talk a lot about in football all the physical characteristics and then all the schemes, but we don't talk enough about the intelligence because it's like teaching some of these guys that they can never get it and that limits their potential in the sport because the game is so complex and as the seat, like the preseason now is a joke, right, but once the season comes in, you're putting in a new game plan every single week.
It's funny. This is a year John where I think some of the more interesting storylines are not on star quarterbacks. They're on potential busts. Justin Fields, Jordan Love. I'm totally fascinated with both now. I think Fields is so brilliantly athletic. He's gonna make it they've given him. I think Mooney's a really good two. DJ moral Ie Claypool in consistent three. Cole Komet's a nice tight end. Robert Tanyan old line's not terrible. I think they found a left tackle a
couple of years ago in the draft. So he is so brilliantly athletic. You know. It's like when you were watching Steve Young when he was young. You were like, Okay, he's not great in the pocket yet, but this shit's gonna work. He's just too athletic. Cam was like that, it's gonna work to some degree. So Justin's gonna work to some degree. But I have a very good source, very good in Green Bay, who says three years they don't see any juice with Jordan Love, and it's weird.
Usually I'm so geeked up to watch the great quarterbacks. I'm fascinated with Fields, I'm fascinated with Sam Darnold in San Francisco. I can't wait to watch Jordan Love play. My gut is It's like they always say, a man can tell in eight minutes if she's right for him, and it may take her eight hours or whatever it is. Yeah, three years in the building. I don't have a piece of video on Jordan Love. I mean, you were hearing
Joe Burrow greatness week three in camp and Cincinnati. My guess is here Lufleur will control him, but there's gonna be no there there with Jordan Love, it's just gonna be a guy. That's my take.
I think we saw this when when Brady left. Whenever there is a guy that you ultimately chose to get rid of and that guy goes on to have success. I think Rogers is gonna have a fantastic season. I don't know if you've watched some of his press conferences. He feels like he's in the best mental space in a long long time. I mean, he feels really good. I think he's going to be really good. And that element, even if it's we were ready to move on and they were right like it was time for a divorce,
there is you're still the guy replacing him, right. You don't want to be the guy replacing Nick Saban good luck, right, you want to be the guy that replaces that guy. And I just think Jordan Love, I think we're gonna know and you're always big on this right pretty quickly, especially with a guy that's been in the league for
a while. I think in that first month, the pressure on him, especially if it starts slow, will be beyond iments, right, because there are so many quarterbacks now, especially if you look and like CJ. Stroud just looks okay, and Bryce Young it happens so fat. The league has never been easier from a passing standpoint, and then when you factor in, well, this guy knows the offense. He's been sitting learning from a Hall of famer and the head coach have been
sitting right next to him. Yeah, I think him. I find him fascinating to me fields just because anytime the year starting quarterback for a GM and a coach that did not draft you, like I've seen it firsthand, like they just they will move on. It's about your guy. It's not like that in other sports, like if I just inherit, Barry Bonds or Lebron James, who cares? In football unless you're like Aaron Rodgers. Everyone can be moved
really quickly in football. And I do think it got weird last year, and a lot of it was Bill's fault because of who he made the offensive coordinator. But I think if Mac Jones and we already talked about him like he's his best case is like Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins ish Well, that means his floor's really low. If he's just average, he could get everybody fired, right, he could just end the the Belichick era well.
And also, if you look at Green Bay's schedule, there's some real daunting defenses. Later you got to face the Steelers in November like that, you don't want to open with the Steelers the Chargers defense. The week after that, you've got the Giants defense later Carolina's front. But if you really look early for Jordan Love opens with the Bears defense, it was awful. Falcons defense awful, Week four, Lions defense awful, Week five, Raiders defense last year outside
of Max Crosby, awful, So those defenses maybe better. John. You can't go from awful to great in a year. So my takeaway is in those first five weeks, I'm not even looking at wins. If that kid can't get three hundred yards passing a couple times, whatever the scoreboard is, you're gonna know in the building right like you've got to make you could lose to Atlanta, but it better be thirty twenty eight and they got the ball last.
I'm pretty I don't have the number in front of me, but I think, off the top of my head, you know how they signed that because they didn't pick up his fifth year option. They basically did like a two year, eleven million dollar deal. We see these agents in the NFL when it comes to premium positions are so cutthroat. If you had any positive thought that this guy had a chance to be just a player eleven million dollars for two years at quarterback, you would just say, let's
play it out, let's see what happens. But that that, to me is a very just kind of cya. This could go really bad, and obviously for the Packers it's an easy one. The other thing is if it's goes poorly in terms of Jordan Love and he's not any good and they're just bad because their quarterback plays really shitty. They're actually pretty well equipped for a young quarterback. I mean they got a lot of talent, a lot of
defensive pieces, a lot of good young offensive pieces. If I was one, if I was Caleb or Drake may like green Bay great place to play football, it matters. They've had to start quarterbacks, they got young players, they got a coach that knows how to coach offense. I actually think it's I'd rather go there in Arizona.
No, it's really interesting, John, If you look at I said this, the other day. So a next year's college quarterback class best in a four to five year window. Secondly, you don't have a bunch of old offensive pieces that could very impatient, not want to stick around with a kid Christian Watson, Dobbs Dylan the running back. They just drafted two tight ends. They've got some youth on the old line. They're ready for a young quarterback, right, it's
a young, energized group. Yeah, the quarterback's going to listen to the same music, play with the same tech. This is twenty six and under kids, So it's not you don't got a bunch of old guys that are like, who's this twenty two year old rookie? So also Lafleur By and large a young coach who sort of favors the run game. He would love to slowly roll a quarterback in the advantage of sitting him three years. John
Is everybody knows by Thanksgiving. My dad used to say, your employment will be based on rooms you don't sit in. By Thanksgiving, Mark Murphy, Brian Gooden, Kountz, they're sitting in a room making all these decisions privately. Three years of practice, video, ten games to Thanksgiving. Everybody knows, So I like my takeaways. That's the advantage of not playing a quarterback. You get so many reps. All I need to say is about
eight games a live bullets. You give me eight day Brian Goodin coach Mark Murphy, this is what they do for a living. So I think Green Bay and also remember this, John, this is a really good quarterback class. Many of the bad teams Carolina Houston just drafted a quarterback, right, So you're in a tiny window. We know Tampa's drafted a quarterback, and we know the Raiders are that's not arguable.
Green Bay could be indeed, just got a quarterback. Green Bay could be one of like four teams that absolutely needs a quarterback. So John, they wouldn't even if they won five games and had the eighth pick. Harrison is the best receiver since Moss. Somebody's taken him, right, There's like six tackle at Penn State. It's elite off the charts. So it's like it's not like, let's just keep moving back Harrison. I mean, and how many teams in the
league would take Randy Moss in his prime today? So Caleb, Drake, May, and Harrison are your first three the draft starts at four, and there's a lot and I would say that Penn State old Lineman's probably a lock for top four. So if you finished with a fifth mess record, or you're five or six in the draft, you don't have to give anything up.
You're going to get a quarterback, yeah, for sure. The other big story, I don't know if you saw, like JK. Dobbins, the running back for the Ravens, who's mad wants a contract. Obviously, this Jonathan Taylor situation. I hadn't thought of this, but I was on Gottlee's radio show and he made a
good point. It's clearly that phone call that was led by a bunch of guys that had already been paid got everyone kind of amped up, and a message went out is we're all getting screwed even though everyone's talking is making twelve to fifteen million dollars, right, and some of the other guys you know, start kind of Jonathan Taylor went on record, I think late April, said hey, listen, I'm glad to be here. This will get figured out. I'm not worried. He's always been known high character guy.
Then gets into camp and he's double mental fingers. He's pissed off. JK. Dobbins, who played eight games, played eight games, ran for five hundred yards, refusing to practice right now. Sometimes you start listening to people who are above your pay grade with some of their ideas, and it seems can put you in a bad mental spot. I don't care what industry you're in, and I think if you look back on that phone call, it's going to have
some negative rambo. Christian McAffrey can do whatever he wants Dereck Henery, So there are other guys that.
Aren't quite on that level.
And I think when you start thinking like other people that you shouldn't be thinking like that yet, can just create some chaos. And this is not the NBA where they're just going to capitulate to your demands. I think these guys are realizing it really quick.
Well, the one team that's interesting is the Colts. So there's a number that Warren Sharp puts out that quarterbacks by and large have gobbled up about fifteen to twenty percent of the running backed rush yards in the last decade. Well, Anthony Richardson could gobble up twenty five to thirty percent. I mean people are projecting him is like Justin fields, but more athletic. So yeah, yeah, So if he gobbles up thirty percent of Jonathan Taylor's yards, he rushes for
nine hundred and fifty yards seven touchdowns. I mean, Jalen Hurts is getting ten plus touchdowns, Lamar's getting a thousand yards, Josh Allen getting eight hundred, and Josh Allen's a great pocket guy. Now, so let's say Anthony Richardson only one year starting in college gonna be kind of raw. Shane Stikeen likes athletic quarterbacks, He's going to lean into running for two years. So the Colts say to themselves, we don't need an a running back. What we need is
a better corner and another receiver or tight end. Do the Colts call the Patriots, who have a surplus of dbs, and say, we'll give you Taylor. You don't have a damn playmaker and your roster. You give us Stevenson, who's a b running back, and your two or three corner. So I could see Indy saying, listen, we don't We're gonna gonna pick maybe yeah, yeah, give us a fifth round, pick your three corner and your be back. We'll give you Taylor. New England has no playmakers. John mac jones
is not a playmaker, Devonte Parker's not Hunter, Henry's not. Essentially, New England can only score with eleven play drives, right, Like, that's it. Jujus a slot wide receiver. So Jonathan Taylor, they have no cleanup hitter. Shit, they don't have a three hitter. They don't have anybody in the three hole. So to me, if I'm the Colts, I'd call New England and say give us your number two or three corner a pick and we'll give you our be back.
And it sounds, you know, like ooh, Belichick wouldn't get worked. Belichick's trying to keep his job in a division where they can't stop Josh Allen, they won't stop Aaron Rodgers and Mike McDaniel and Tua have had Belichick's number. They got to go get a playmaker, and nobody's given up a star receiver. The only position in the league where you can have a playmaker star and they'll give it to you is running back. I would go get I would get Jonathan Taylor tomorrow if I was New England.
The one thing they have and they always have an air Belichick they always have an extra corner, they always have an extra safety. Builds the best dB coach in league history.
This gets back to the owner situation too, of just they create a little chaos when they talk, and a lot of these owners now know that that nothing good comes out of it. And Jerry and Ursay, especially Ursay, he's pretty mouthy, you know, and it's but you got to come. You can't let your you know, your rookie coach and your rookie raw quarterback. You don't want them in chaos, right, You got to figure out this situation. You got to figure out fast.
So Week one surprise. So here's my Week one upset the Jaguars. Jaguars are heavy favorites and they have struggled through the years against the Colts, and they're coming in like a big, big four point favorite, five point okay, So they go indoors. They have no idea what they're getting from Anthony Richardson. They have no idea what they're getting with Shane Steichen. But we know Steichen did this immediately with Justin Fields. He was ready to play. So
you've got a Colts team that won't be great. But bad teams don't know they're bad until about week five. You've got a new coach, new system that works quickly with young quarterbacks, and Anthony Richardson is so hyper mobile it's gonna look like Lamar in his first twelve NFL games. You're not gonna know what to do. I think the Colts, that's my now. I think the Jags are going to end up with twelve to thirteen wins. I think they're
gonna get caught flat footed in Week one. You know there's gonna be a holy blank moment in Week one. It's happened every year of my life. Give me a Week one that you look at and think, oh, brother, Dallas, Giants, Eagles, Patriots, what do you see really quick?
On the Jags. I talked to a buddy that's on that staff, and he said, Calvin Ridley, Holy Molly, looks fantastic. That their offense has a chance, that their defense is just okay, that their offense could be lights out. I mean, we're talking top five or six in the league, So I think big picture. I'm a big Jags believer. The forty nine ers have started slow, just under Kyle Shanahan that they've usually had to get roll on the second half of seasons in basically every season but the year
that they went to the Super Bowl. But the last couple they have not started fast. Last year they didn't. They lost Week one on the road to Chicago. We had the number one overall draft pick. This year they played Pittsburgh, and you know, Pittsburgh easily finished this last stretch of the season playing as well as anyone. They obviously missed the playoffs, but it was because they started with Mitch Trubisky. By the end, their rookie quarterback was
leading game winning drives. Now they have a lot of confidence. TJ. Watt is healthy. I think they kind of have a true identity. To me, Kenny Pickett and Mac Jones are kind of in the same world. Kenny Piketts a little bit better athlete, but the Steelers are much more equipped to handle a guy like him Bill because they got playmakers. They just they know what the guy is. They have consistency with their coordinators. I think that's a weird spot for forty nine ers Week one, you know, who are
favored on the road. With Brock Purty coming back from this arm injury, he's ahead of schedule, He's able to throw pretty much full go in practice right now. But I could see the Niners, you know, winning thirteen games and losing that game, and I think a lot of people are gonna you get the Steelers at a home underdog week one. I mean that place is gonna be
going nuts. You know, brock perty we we can't give him the Steve Young Joe Montana's treatment just yet on the road week one against good teams.
The other thing is wat's Tomlin's track record. He's a great extra underdog. Oh my god, it's the best underdog coach in the league. He's a terrible favorites coach. And I think a lot of it is like Pete Carroll. He's the great motivator. It's hard to motivate when you're a thirteen point favorite over the Bengals eight years ago. He is a home Remember a couple of years ago, they go into Buffalo low and kick that you know
what out of the Bills. We all thought the Bills were gonna win fifteen games, and they went in there block to punt. Josh Allen couldn't move the ball. Watch watch Pittsburgh play there arse off in that game.
Well, it's so easy for him you know, from Cam Hayward to TJ. Watt to make a you know, we've played everyone from Peyton to Tom Brady or Rogers for a decade here, and you brock Party is just gonna get treated like them, you know, because that's that type number. Now listen, Cot It's it's a Kyle Shanahan number, not a Brock Party number. But I just think the Niners, just when you look at their history, slow starts, and that's just a tough opponent like this is not playing
some four win team week one. So I got that one circle to just take the points right now. I love that bit.
John middle Acoff three and Out Golf Podcast, Go Low. Want to thank all the listeners for Amazon on amp. John, I can't wait, have a great weekend, Gonna hit this, gonna hit the golf course this weekend.
Well Colin, it's been about one hundred and forty degrees here in Arizona, so I big golf for the first time yesterday and needed about seven gatorades and eight gallons of water. But I just recuperated about twenty four hours later.
So great seeing see yah.
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