Colin Cowherd Podcast - Cowboys-49ers Predictions, Sharp or Square

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The assumption and the feeling is it's been in a lot of big games, so he'll be better than Brock Pretty here. But there's a lot of a lot of areas like San Francisco. I think they have far better weapons. Brandon Aiyuk's become a one Deebo, Samuel Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Brock pretty moves pretty well, certainly better than Garoppolo.

So I have a coach advantage, I have a weapons advantage, And the real difference in the game to me is San Francisco is a tremendous red zone team and Dallas isn't. And one of the reasons Dallas isn't Tony Potter's a good back, he's not a star. You can shade over roll your coverage over a CD LAMB. They're not getting Dalton Schultz production at tight end because he's now part of the Houston Texans. So I just don't think Dallas has that much offensive talent. They've paid for Stefan Gilmour,

Micah Parsons. I think a lot of their better players are on the defensive side. Ceedee Lamb, I think is really really expos explosive. But I mean, I think we've seen this before, is that when you get into the red zone, you know teams in the red zone that are very good. Buffalo, why josh Allen Baltimore, Why Lamar Jackson? You usually need in a cluttered space, a dominating back, a dominating physical presence. Nobody can defend Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen. Dak is not as mobile as he used

to be because of you know, lower extremity injuries. They have now one great receiver and that's it. Not a ton of tight end production. Backs are okay, not special, and the O line is injury riddled, though it on PFF is ranking better than you'd think. Look at what Kyle Shanahan has to work with the best running back arguably in the league, Christian McCaffrey, who's also the best receiving running back in the league. A top two to three tight end in George Kittle. Brandon Ayuk is now

a one. He is a bona fide one. Deebo Samuel is the ultimate Swiss Army knife in the NFL. And Shanahan does a better job at disguising his run plays than anybody I've ever seen, all the coaches. So I think the game is going to come down to red zone efficiency. And I just think San Francisco's got more weapons, a better offensive coach. And I think you know the thing about Mike McCarthy. As you know Mike McCarthy, we talk about players that get underdrafted. Dak was underdrafted. He

was better than a fourth round pick. Brock Purty as a seventh round pick, was underdrafted. I think Mike McCarthy has a weakness. I don't think he's a great situational coach and red zone offensive situational. But I don't think Mike McCarthy's a bad coach. I just don't trust him in key spots. By the way, when Andy Reid was in Philadelphia, that was the knock on Andy Reid. He wasn't great with the clock, he wasn't great in certain situations in the red zone. Well, he had Donovan McNabb.

Now he's got Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelcey and but Checko, and you know he's got better players. I mean last year in the Super Bowl, how good was Philadelphia on those zigzag motion plays? So they're just I mean, a reality of the red zone is who's your quarterback, who's your tight end, how many weapons do you have? And are you a great situational coach? Sean Payton has usually been very good in the red zone. Good situational coach Shanahan,

Sean McVeagh doesn't mean they're perfect coaches. So I think the hole in Mike McCarthy's game is situational football. That's red zone football. Now, you could get away with it. Aaron Rodgers in your prime, probably get away with it more when you had Zeke the best on line in football, and Dak in his prime. But I don't think this is one of those situations. They've been in the red zone nineteen times this year, the Cowboys only seven touchdowns. I think that's what they're going to be. I think

against good defenses to very good. I think San Francisco's very good. They're not great yet. In Steve Wilkes took over for Demiko Ryans. I don't think the Niners are a great defense, situational defense. I just think they have great talent and great units. But I think Mike McCarthy's not a bad coach, but I just don't love him in matchups like this. I think he's going to get out coached. And as you know, I tend to be more of an offensive coach sportscaster than a defensive coach.

These guys are both offensive coaches this situation, this game is going to come down to a series of plays around the goal line. And that's why I like San Francisco. I think the number is right. I think three and a half is the right number. I think it's twenty four to twenty one, twenty four to twenty San Francisco. But I can't wait to watch it. Here's Chad Melman sharper Square. Listen, we've all had fender benders in our life.

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That's pound five to nine from your cell phone. That's for the people dot com slash Colin or pound law five to nine from your cell This is a paid advertisement. Time for another addition, A happy edition of Sharper Square Chad Milman CEO Action Network All odds provided by DraftKings. So not only did I go four and one two other games I would have bet won. So it was that rare week outside of the Patriots, Cowboys play Chad, where I was on the right side of almost every game.

I've hit seven out of my last ten picks out of a dreadful let's just say this, I hit it in the weeds week one. It happens, Okay, whatever, Listen.

to get you over that hump. I feel like the last few weeks I was more aggressive telling you to listen.

knows this is a work trip. Bingals lose ugly, embarrassing, huge urgency, and now Burrow appears to be as healthy as he's been very rarely are you going to get a Joe Burrow against a backup? And all I got to give up two and a half to three points. Arizona is sneaky good, but now everybody knows it. You don't have a locker room here, is like it's Arizona. They got to win this football game. Like Baltimore's winning, they have to win this football game. Cleveland's good. Cincinnati

minus three on the road. I think it's a sharper square it.

the Eagles. They're still great because they have incredible players and Nick Siriani is a really good coach, but they're struggling with new coordinators because the coordinators they have we're so good last year and now those guys are running the Colts and the Cardinals, and those teams are both overperforming. Cardinals sixteenth in DVOA, which you don't have to look

it up. It's just a fancy way of taking every metric that exists in football competitively and putting it into one, and it basically says the Cardinals at sixteen the Bengals at twenty six. I feel like after four games you might say Joe Burrow is healthy, Joe Burrow can't throw the ball downfield right now, and I think you have enough of a sample size to say, Okay, this isn't just a quirk that needs a tweak. This is an issue that they need to get over, and I don't

think it gets solved in a week between games. They need a buy week to sort of get everybody healthy and on the same page again, all right.

Four and a half is outrageous. It should be a field goal at max game maybe less sharper square Steelers plus four and a half at home.

let's talk about this series. Right, the underdog in this series when the line is three and more since three and Morse is two thousand and five, when Tomlin became head coach, the underdog is twenty one, three and three. The underdog has covered eleven straight in this rivalry. The underdog is fifteen one and one against the spread in this rivalry since twenty fifteen. So I'm telling you right now the Steelers are the right side here. It's a

little bit scarier. And also there's a whole boatloaded data that will tell you Lamar Jackson as an underdog is just significantly better than he as a favorite. We've seen it in the past two weeks, right like what they did against the Colts and then what they did last week. He was an underdog last week, he was a favorite the week before. They played different, they act different. He is a favorite this week on the road. The Wise guys like it. They liked it at four and a half.

They liked it at four, got that down to three, then it went back up because the public came in on Baltimore. Wise guys like this play.

So the Jets. I don't think Kansas City was an outlier. I think they're really really good defensively, and I think Robert sala is such a passionate person that he can keep that game is an easy game to sell. Sean Payton told me something once and I've never forgotten this. The best you know, the best weeks are when you it's easier to coach players when they lose, they listen. The perfect week is when they play like crap and win. So the Jets didn't, but they played really well and lost,

and in that locker room it means something. I think Denver is going to struggle offensively, and I think the run game and you can run against Denver is something here like I think Kansas City's defense, this is the best Mahomes ever had. They moved the ball. They moved the ball. The difference in that game was a seven and a half minute drive that Kansas City took the ball away. It was the defense that let the Jets down. I cannot give Denver points against arguably a top five

or six defense. I'm taking the I know it's crazy, Zack Wilson, I'm gonna take the Jets plus two and a half sharper square, So.

this line. The public bet this line down from Denver minus two to Denver minus one and a half, and when it got to one and a half today Colin, it got bet back up immediately, and the money on Denver was so strong it went all the way from one and a half to two to two and a half. I think everybody views with you as wise guys. They're thinking, all right, Russell Wilson is the problem on this team

right now. The problem on this team is the defense, and so they're making a bet that this defense can perform a little bit better against Zach Wilson, who was so overperformed last week that you're never going to get higher value on Zach Wilson and the Jets than you are right now, So they're betting against the value of Zach Wilson.

of town fast enough. This is a desperate team. Number one pass rushers gone, their number one corners gone. New Orleans again. Had they won, I could see if there's a division game New Orleans. I don't know if they'll play that bad the rest of the season. I think they'll be engaged. They have a coaching deficit, but almost a credit across the board on everything. I'm going to take the Saints plus one and a half sharper square totally sharp.

a lot of different places. And a lot of what you said is why it's a lot of guys would have bet on the Patriots if Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzales, the defensive lineman and the cornerback for the Patriots, were not out, because they feel like Bill Belichick is such a good defensive play caller and schemer that he would figure out how to do something with a hampered New Orleans Saints team in a heavyweight, outsized coaching mismatch, right,

Like Dennis Allen cannot stay coach on the same field as Bill Belichick. Right, So that was why they were leaning to the Patriots. But with these guys out and the fact that Mac Jones is just terrible, like he has not looked good in any capacity in any situation, and I think the wise guys are only in the year, we're giving him a little bit of the benefit of

the doubt. I was, I was, everybody was right, like he was playing in them monsoon he was playing against great defenses, but look, he just can't make the plays. And you're seeing that week after week after week now, and so I think the wise guys the bloom is off the Rows a little bit for sort of thinking that Bill O'Brien was going to be able to do something with Mac Jones. And so they've come in on the Saints pretty heavy.

it on my show this week. You can see stuff clicking. They lost Shane Steichen. There were times when I watched that game and thought, Okay, they look like Philadelphia. This is a better team, significantly better O and D line play. It's going to be a home game for Philadelphia sixty five to thirty five. Crowd four is one of those numbers. When I see it, I'm a sucker for the four. That's when I take favorites. Philly is a significantly not

only better Chad a veteran older roster. They got a lot of dudes, there's a lot of Hall of Famers. Rams defense is Aaron Donald and children. I think Jalen Hurts is a tough assignment. I'm gonna take Philly minus four sharper square.

incredibly well, even without Cooper Cup. You've found some talent in Nikua and kyn Williams. The defense has been good. Aaron Donald's been rejuvenated, right, and McVeigh has been coaching a great game. I've been coaching great all season except

for that one game against the Bengals. My retort to that was the Eagles to me, feel like the mid two thousands Patriots, where they're so talented at every level, they can be undefeated while working stuff out, and they are so confident and not over confident in a brash away, but confident in their ability to win the games they need to win. That Covering the four, to me, feels like you're getting value on the Eagles at this number because of how good they are, and I agree with you.

Like what we've started to see from them. Jalen Hurst has become a little more comfortable with the new offensive corodinary they coordinated, They've opened the offense up a little bit more. I think the one thing that wise guys are worried about right now is the fact that the Eagle secondary is pretty banged up and Matthew Stafford has been a bit of a heater. So I think that's

why the number moved at four. You're going to see that point of resistance where wise guys will probably be on your side.

teams in the league. So when you get dominated by Detroit, my takeaway is Aaron Rodgers last year was dominated by Detroit. That is really really good. So I don't think Green Bay's as bad as we think. Extra Time very good coach. I think I take the Packers minus one and a half. I think the Raiders off that Charger emotional. That's a big rivalry game that nobody appreciates out East. The Chargers and Raiders have been wild games in the last several years.

They're wildly emotional the crowd. I'm going to take green Bay minus one and a half.

depending on where you're looking. Right. So last week they played the Chargers, they actually outplayed the Chargers in the game, like they gave the Chargers multiple short fields. Aidan O'Connell I thought he looked really good. Unfortunately, he played like a rookie right. He held the ball too long, didn't get rid of it downfield, had many fumbles, made that really bad interception when they were about to tie it on the Chargers three yard line, and he made a

bad play. He just had. It was a miscommunication between him and his receiver. The receiver didn't go all the way out and he threw it to the corner of the goal line and the guy the Chargers intercepted it and he sat down right, and so they had every chance to win that game, even with all the mistakes. So they were in that game, and look the Packers. There's been a lot of love for Jordan Love, and appropriately so because they played well early in the year.

But I think the last two weeks he's been a little bit exposed and wise guys are pulling back a little bit. Like if you're talking about quarterbacks that we are starting for the first time, people are much more excited about C. J. Stroud, They're much more excited about Anthony Richardson. They are less and less excited about Jordan Love, whose completion percentage is not very good. He's made some good throws and he's shown the willingness to make throws,

but he hasn't been accurate. So going on the road as a favorite is not a place where the wise guys are going to put their money.

I'm worried that Buffalo beating a rival badly comes a little bit back down to Earth. Jaguars are very comfortable in London, They've played there. This will be the eleventh of the twelfth time, maybe the eleventh. Favorites usually win this game. In fact, I think they're twenty two to nine. Yep, but Jacksonville can keep it close. I did think against Atlanta from the very early stages of the game, they had a plan, they executed it. That was a big

game for Atlanta. I think I would take the points with Jacksonville off of Buffalo dominating home win. This is the game I'm going to ask you about. Did I where would you lean? Talk me into it?

game against the Falcons. If you played that game one hundred other times, you would need everything to go exactly the way it went for the Jaguars to win that game. The Falcons actually played really well, and we've talked about this on the show before we do this thing called the luck rankings. This was the number one game in terms of discrepancy between good luck and bad luck in Week four, meaning the Falcons easily could have won that game if not for a couple of really bad circumstances

that always regress. So the Jags have not been a very good team this year, so a lot of wise guys are sort of taking a pass on this one. London also makes it a little bit of a different circumstance. You're kind of playing a funky number. You're not getting a seven that you might get if the Bills are playing at home. You're not getting like a plus four if you had the Jags at home, So it's kind of a no man's land. Then no one's really interesting to be honest, all right.

so I just avoid the Falcons. Everybody loves them. This week's Is that your game?

They love his run scheme. It is so interesting. And the truth is, I do this thing every week where we do a film room right, and I'll break down a play with Simon Hunter that we think is going to influence our bet. And it just so happens that this week the play that I chose was a running play. Two different running plays that the Falcons use running to the right, because their right side of the offensive line is as dominant as any right side in the NFL.

They have the fourth highest success rate running to the right. Their center, Drew Dollman is grading out as one of the best centers in the league. Their right guard, Chris Linstrom is grading out as the best guard in the league. They are Kayleb McGarry, their right tackle grading out is

one of the best run blockers in the league. And you could see it, not again, not last week where they were playing from behind over almost from the beginning, but against the Packers the week before, they were just road grading people, running Bijon outside and running Tyler Algiers inside. And as much as we love what c. J. Stroud has been doing and he will, you know he's on the path to being Rookie of the Year Offensive Rookie of the Year, the Texans don't have anybody who can

stop the Falcons run game. Lads are not built for that. So you give me the Falcons as very short home favorites with that running game and a Texans team that I think is overvalued right now because of what they did last week and how competitive c J. Stroud has been.