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first purchase. Terms apply again. Creat an account. The redeem code cooln twenty dollars off. Download game Time today, last minute deals, loess priced tickets guaranteed. Okay, everybody are Thanksgiving. Addition, Chad Millman all of the odds provided by DraftKings. Now at the very end, we're going to do about five minutes on Michigan Ohio State. So I want you to stick around for that Sharper square where I bring in Chad. I have feelings about games, and he tells me if
I'm right or wrong. I don't have a vibe for any games this week. I think I like Detroit a lot, I like Arizona. I think I would take the command The point even though I think Dallas will win. Twelve points is a ton I don't feel.
I don't.
It's just I'm glad that I don't do a blazing five on Thanksgiving. I said last week, I thought I really like the numbers. This week I don't, And so off of four in one week, I'm not gonna I'm not gonna do a blazing five on on You know, short rest underdogs often do very well on Thanksgiving. Like I think Dallas is going to beat the Commanders twelve twelve and a half points, I can't go there. So I'm going to bring in Chad for some thoughts on that. I think it's just one of the best four day
periods of the year. Right now, I'm thankful for that that. You know, we're two thirds through the season, and I think if you look up and around, take out Joe Burrow's injury, he's out for the season. I think most of the teams we thought would be in this space are I didn't have the Jets as a playoff team with Aaron Rodgers. I certainly didn't with Zach Wilson. About the only team I feel I've missed on, I thought
Seattle would be better than this. They have really regressed in the last three weeks.
Really regressed.
Baltimore is better than I thought, although if you've listened to me for years, you know how much respect I have for Harbaugh, the owner the GM, Lamar Jackson. But I don't think it's been a wildly surprising year. Buffalo, Miami, Philadelphia, Dallas, those felt like teams that would be the top of their division. San Francisco, a Detroit feel like teams New Orleans would be at the top of their division, Kansas City top of their division. Now, the Chargers are not
as good as I thought. I thought they were a playoff team, and my guest today is they won't be. I can't wait to hear Chad's thoughts on the Ravens Chargers. But I think by and large all of us feel this season's turned out largely like we think. Again, I don't think Seattle has delivered as much as I thought they would. Baltimore's better than I thought they would, but I didn't buy into the Jets. I think the league's
getting easier to predict on a wide level. Take the best quarterback if he has a competent coach week to week.
Who knows.
So a Thanksgiving edition Sharper Square at the end. Some thoughts on Michigan Ohio State. Let's bring in Chad Milman, the CEO of the Action Network. All odds provided again by DraftKings. All Right, very good Week four and one. Sharper Square. Chad Millman, CEO, Action Network, All odds provided by DraftKings. So after you know, a clunky start, a lot of turbulence, first two weeks have actually been you know, kind of break even or a winning week for a
couple months. My theory is the gap between really good quarterback play and bad quarterback play is wider than ever, which makes predicting the NFL on a macro level preseason predictions. I'm like eleven or fourteen teams. I feel really good.
The Burrough injury hurts my Bengals prediction, but so this weekend I'm gonna go back and lean again, regardless of the lines and the sut I believe in which this gap is getting worse, and now offensive lines are beat up, so the better quarterbacks have the ability to overcome a little bit of that. The bad ones don't at all.
So here we go.
I know the numbers bad, but Lions minus seven and a half against the Packers. The Chargers lost that game. Green Bay didn't win it. Austin Eckler fumbling in your luck ratings. Green Bay had to be up there. Detroit the perfect. Sean Payton told me the best team to coach you win and play like crap. Detroit won and played like crap. I know the hooks bad news. There is a massive gap between these two teams. Packers also beat up. I'd swallow it. I think the Lins blow out the Packers.
Sharper square starts are totally with you on this one. And what a lot of times what wise guys look at is how does a quarterback bounce back? After making horrible throws and bad decisions. What did we see from Jared Goff three picks? They were out of that game seventeen points in the final four minutes twenty seconds. He was laser focused. The wise guys are all over the Lions here. Also, there are a lot of trends that
will support backing the big underdog on Thanksgiving Day. And one more thing that adds to your idea of Look, they've got a great offensive line, they've got a great quarterback, they've got really good edge players, really good running backs. They are a better team, they're a better coach team. But also when you're getting on the short rest, you want to go with a team that has more talent.
We even see it happening on these Thursday games, right, You would normally see a Thursday game, you'd see if there's a bad line, the underdogs getting a lot of action. You don't you see the favorites getting the action. So this is a little bit like that.
Okay, this is my second favorite pick of the week, and I like the Colts minus two and a half hosting the Bucks, so really smart offensive coaches off a bye. Now, I took Philly over Kansas City because both coaches offensive and Sirianni's now four and zero off of Buye, So I thought it muted some of the advantage. But I get a really sharp offensive coach off of by against the defensive coach no buye, Todd Bowles. I thought it
was one of my stronger plays. I'm going to take the Colts minus two and a half at home rested, reasonably healthy.
Sharper Square, no consensus. The early reporting I've heard is that wise guys like the Bucks that they've been playing better than people are giving them credit for that. Baker has been keeping his team in game a lot of times. If you look at some of these games, even last week against San Francisco, they were a player or two away from covering. You look earlier in the year they were playing the Eagles, they were six point dogs. They were a couple of Mike Evans drops away from covering.
Like this is a team that has consistently been hanging around so and that's with good teams. So now if they're going to be playing a mediocre to a bad team whose defense is not very good, who are still playing Gardner Minshew, It's an odd thing to be backing the Colts as a favorite with Gardner Minshew, I feel like you are leaning a little bit too much into the new coach theme and not necessarily the players on the field theme.
I'm gonna take Arizona minus one hosting the Rams. So it's one thing to play the Rams when Cooper cup is hurt in the game, another thing preparing when you're not going to face him and you know it. Poka NiCoT is a great story, but he doesn't separate. They don't have a separate rating receiver. He's a zone beater. In the end, Rams are still a rebuilding roster. Arizona beat Atlanta tough out played really well at times. Against Houston,
they're at home. The Rams were completely outplayed for three quarters. Seattle just can't get stops on third down. Arizona will I'm gonna take Arizona Kyler Murray at home sharper score.
So it's a little sharp. And what I mean by that is the wise guys started playing Arizona when they were underdogs at home. They've been really impressed with Kyler Murray in the two games he's been back, especially last week. He kept them in that game. They covered that game at five and a half, which was a big number. The wise guys started betting early in the week on Kyler Murray against the Texans. So now you're looking at a game in which Kyler Murray and the Cardinals are
now favorites. Right, So if you think the Cardinals are going to win, you're still going to be on the right side because you're betting the minus one. I will tell you that historically the trend is team flips from being an underdog to being a favorite. The numbers work against them. So what you really need to be thinking about is why didn't I get this number a little bit earlier because you would have liked it more at
plus one. I get you got to like play the lines that are in front of you right now, but there's a lot of games on the board to play where you're not trying to buck some trends.
I'm gonna take the Saints plus one at the Falcons off of Bye. I think they have a much better roster. I think there's a little turmoil inside of Atlanta. I think Arthur Smith is smart, but he's outspoken, blunt. I'm not sure the team loves him. I think this is a experienced quarterback better roster off of by older team in spots getting a little healthy. Younger teams don't need that buy when they're playing well, they want to play
the next week. Older teams always appreciate time off. I think I take the Saints as a one point dog Sharper square.
It's like you're trying to pick the corner TV games.
I don't know, Well, I'm picking what I like.
Well, look, I think New Orleans is the right side. I agree Desmond Ritter is not an NFL caliber quarterback. They have not been using Jean Robinson in a way that anyone thought they would. I mean, this was a guy that everyone expected to be a runaway for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
And don't you think the guys in the locker room are wondering why they're not using him. He's obviously a huge house.
Yes, it's you have to be thinking if you're a player in the Falcons right now. Wait a second. Arthur Smith was a genius when we were using Corderyl Patterson. But we've got a talent who might be once in a generation, and we can't figure out how to get this guy in space and make him the perfect weapon for everything. We want to do when we don't have a quarterback who can really throw the ball downfield. So, yeah, the Saints are the right side here because you're getting
them off of by they're older. You know. The challenge here is that Derek Carr has been terrible in the red zone, and the reason the Saints have gotten better in the red zone and they started to turn their season around is because of taste's hell. I will also tell you Dennis Allen, the past twenty years one hundred and forty something coaches in the NFL, he is one of the least profitable against the spread in any capacity.
So this is kind of a game where if you like it, you're still playing with fire.
All right, Generally I would take the Hook Chargers getting three and a half at home, but I've been saying this for two months. I think the Ravens are probably the most complete team in the league. Mark Andrews won't play, but the Chargers defense made Jordan.
Love look special.
It's a bad defense. I know, it's the Hook. I'm there is no home field advantage for the Chargers. It does not exist. I think the Ravens could blow him out.
Sharper score early square the Ravens have not been the side for the wise guys. This week, the number open at four and a half got beat down to four. Now it's down to three and a half. Look the Chargers. Nobody believes in Brandon Staley. We have said it all year. We don't think he's a very good coach. The wise guys consistently bet against him when he's a favorite. When he's an underdog and there's there at home, it's a different scenario. And their weapons on offense are just so good.
And you talk about luck, right, what did the Packers have last week? They also had Keenan Allen dropping a third down catch near the goal line that would have put them in first in goal. He dropped a touchdown pass. There were a lot of sort of inconsistencies in the way games normally play out that helped the Packers win that game, in addition to the Chargers defense just being terrible.
So the wise guys like the Chargers here with the hook because they're dogs and it's the only get right spot they're going to find.
I'm going to take Buffalo minus three against Philadelphia. Here's the reason why short week just played Kansas City in a rematch of the Super Bowl the following week. For Philadelphia, it's the San Francisco forty nine ers, a bit of a tweener game. The world now is selling all Buffalo stock. But if you watch them against the Jets, they were more creative, they use more motion. Clearly, Ken Dorsey, right, that was seen as a shortcoming within the staff. Buffalo
minus three they win. It shocks a lot of people. But this is a brutal, brutal spot for Philadelphia, the classic sandwich game. Bills plus three sharper square.
Look, it's totally sharp and thank god you brought it up, because when we got to the segment where I'm trying to convince you of games, I was going to be like, how are you not taking Buffalo totally the sharp side. The number was at three and a half. It got that down to three. You mentioned luck rankings before, right, the Philadelphia Eagles are one of the three luckiest teams in the NFL this year. The Buffalo Bills are one of the three most unlucky teams in the NFL this year.
There is a massive gap. Just look at a couple of games that have happened the past few weeks. Right, the Eagles what they did on Monday Night Football. They won the game because Travis Kelce fumbled a luck play and because a player dropped a touchdown pass a luck play. The Buffalo Bills, how do they lose to the Denver Broncos. They had twelve men on a field on the field for a field goal that the Broncos missed. They got to do it again. They lost. How do they lose
to the Patriots? Mac Jones driving down the field? A couple of sporadic, inconsistent plays that factors into it. Right, So, yes, the wise guys are on the Bills in this spot. It's a good spot for them to get healthy. One of the things that you have to consider, and we started to see it a little bit this past week. The Bills traded for Rasoul Douglas at the trade deadline
in October thirty. First, the Bills started doing horribly this year and going on their roller coaster ride of inconsistency when they lost to Davius White against Miami in early October. Then they lost Matt Malono the next week in a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in London. Right, so, the defense has been struggling because they don't have any playmakers. They traded for Rasoulo Douglas. Last week was his first,
was his third game, his first big game. Two picks, one fumble, recovery, and he started to look like the playmaker of the Bill's need in the secondary. When you are going against Devonte Smith, when you're going against aj Brown, you're going to need someone who is physical, who can play on those receivers and make plays in the secondary. So that's one thing that I think could be an X factor in this game.
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the better team is. That's an egregiously high number. I think Sam Hall. If you look at who the Cowboys have beaten, Giants, Jets, Rams, when Stafford got hurt, Carolina, it's a lot of bad quarterbacks. I don't think Sam Hall's bad. I think he deserves another year with an off minded coach. I think Sam Howl's actually okay in spots. I watch them against Philadelphia. He can make all the big boy throws. I watch them against Denver. He can make all the big boy throws. I think this is
actually a pretty competitive game. I take the twelve and a half Sharper score totally sharp.
When you're talking about division matchups like this, the road team that is the underdog has a fifty three percent cover rate the past five years. So that's on the edge of where you want to be. But then you put in the factor that it's such a big number in a division game. That raises the factors a little bit more. There's a lot of things going your way when you want to bet on the Commanders here. Dak not being a good quarterback against the spread on Thanksgiving
is another big factor. There is some hesitancy, like this line was at eleven. You would have thought professional betters would have hammered this line at eleven. Over the last twenty four to thirty six hours, it's going up twelve and a half. It's trending towards thirteen. You're going to see the buyback. Wise, guys want to bet on the Commanders at this bigger number, but it is It is not as much of a consensus as you would think. But I'm with you, all right.
Yeah, So we always do a talk me into a game. I kind of think the Jaguars got doused by the Texans. I'd probably take him here as a one and a half point favorite. Don't love it. Texans are better and consistent. They didn't play particularly well against Arizona.
Still one.
That's a really good trend and trait when you can play poorly and win. My guess is the Sharps are on CJ Stroud, but Jacksonville got doused two weeks ago, so I'd probably take him because I like Trevor Lawrence. Talk me into the side.
Wise, guys are on CJ Shroud. They're just consistently seeing something in him that they, frankly haven't seen in Trevor Lawrence, who has been inconsistent. Who missus throws? You watch CJ Shroud. There was a play last week the guy got leveled completely level Yes, had to come out for a play. The next play it was third and seventeen. They didn't even hesitate. He gets the ball, runs out of the pocket, he's got someone chasing it. He can make one throw to one guy and it's a rope to tank down
on the sideline to go third and seventeen. The guy just knows how to play quarterback and has been proving it. He's preternaturally good, right, talk about MVP, as this guy was at two hundred and one before the season, now
he's less than twenty to one. It's actually weird to me that this team is an underdog at home where he's five and zero against the spread, by the way, And I think that part of the problem is when you get a team like the Texans that is power rated so low when the season begins, every book maker will tell you, we can't just automatically jump the number by ten points, like they need to gradually do it, right.
It's like coming off of a of bad medicine, right, Like you need to gradually come off it a little bit. So they have not fully changed their power rating on the Texans. Because it's weird to me that there are dogs at home right now and you're getting hook.
Okay, there's always a game I completely miss on. I, you know, I the Denver Broncos game fascinates me, and I have a feeling that's it. I feel like I feel like Denver keeps kind of winning the same way where I'm not sure that the better team. And then Russell makes a play. But then I look at their defense and it's really young and hyper aggressive. Simmons now is making instrumental plays. I already liked their top corner
of Patrick's artan can Denver win again? Is that the dumpster dive I missed?
Now the wise guys are on Cleveland in this game. The line open two and a half, it's been bet down to one and a half. There's a difference. And a couple of weeks ago we talked about Cleveland and Baltimore, and I think I try to convince you that Cleveland was the side in this game, and they ended up covering in this game. And the reason why I like Cleveland in this in that game was because their defense is offensive. And what I mean by that is they
have playmakers at every single level of the defense. It's not just Miles Garrett, who might be one of the best players in the NFL right now, but it's guys like Grant Delpit who are leading that team in tackles right and he is playing in the box, but he is also playing in coverage. They make plays that put the Browns offense in a position to score. They don't always have to be feel getting a kickoff, going down seventy five hours or getting a punt from deep in
their territory. The Browns defense puts them in a good position. I can't say the same about the Broncos. They're better, they're making team, they're holding teams to fewer points. Their tackling is still really bad. We saw that against Minnesota. They could not tackle anybody. And the Browns are a heavy rush team with Now and Dorian Thompson Robinson a very mobile quarterback. So the wise guys like the Browns here.
The only caveat I would say is that the number is moved, and so it's becoming harder and harder to bet on it. You're essentially betting on the Browns to win at this point.
Any other dumpster diving?
Can I interest you in? The Las Vegas Raiders as eight and a half eight or nine, depending on where you're looking point underdogs hosting the Kansas City Chiefs. So look, yeah, the Chiefs. They have been virtually unbeatable, and I like the Eagles to this past week. I think we made the Eagles last week an executive decision, and the second half in games, it's almost like Andy Reid recognizes that his receivers are not playmakers, and so he's immediately playing
the clock in the second half. They scored what two touchdowns in the second half. In the past five games, they had seventeen points at halftime. This past week ended the game with seventeen points. There's a lot of stuff to unpack for this team. So now you're asking in a division game for them to go on the road and beat a team in the Raiders that still has a very aggressive defense in a very good pass rush and obviously one of the best defensive ends and edge
rushers in Max Crosby. So and Aidan O'Connell has shown stuff right like he's throwing the ball down field. He's not afraid, he's very active.
He can make throws. He's not mobile, but he can.
He can totally make throws. So it's a big number. And Patrick Mahomes, for all his success when he's favored by three or less, other than this past week when you and I decided to take the Eagles generally covers three and a half or more, he is way under five hundred against the spread. So this is a spot where you want to fade Mahomes.
Yeah, I think this is a smart pick. Also, Antonio Piers is fighting and that staff is fighting for seven figure contract. Yes, right, Like Mark Davis probably wants to hire this staff because he's paying Gruden and he's paying Josh McDaniels. He would love to get a coach on the cheap. So this knows they've got probably a sixty five thirty five seventy thirty chance to land these jobs. Just show effort. I don't even think you have to win.
I think if they're consistently showing effort, I mean they overachieved last weekend. They lost. That was a good loss for an interim coach as a big dog. As a good loss, think about how about a twenty four to twenty lost Kansas City. He may get an extension right there.
Think about this. Think about the Chargers who have had Brandon Staley, who has underperformed the defense that he is supposed to be a specialist in. Has been terrible. He has not gotten the best out of an unbelievably talented offense. The Chargers won't fire him, probably because the Chargers are cheap and don't want to turn over the staff and
have to pay two coaches at the same time. The flip side is you've got a Raiders team that is as consistently bad as the Chargers, but Mark Davis is willing to turn that staff over and pay hundreds of millions of dollars in excess coaching fees to try to find the winner. That's admirable either way, like you're getting losers, but at least one guy is willing to spend to try to find the formula to win.
Okay, Michigan Ohio State twenty one straight times in this meeting. The team that has rushed for more has won, and Michigan is a better rush team. Ohio State is eight than the Big Ten rushing better in the last three to four weeks, but Michigan is the better run team. I think they have the better offensive line. They're at home. I think they have the better quarterback with CJ.
Stroud.
The Buck guys were blown out the last two years. I think Michigan wins. If Harball was on the sideline, I think it would be convincing. I think without him it does matter. It's closer. It's three and a half for the Buck guys, all odds provided by DraftKings. I'm interested where the Sharps would go on this, I like Michigan With Harbaugh. I think it would be like plus five plus four, and I would absolutely take Michigan. It's a stay away for me. Without Harbaugh, what are the wise guys think?
Well, Michigan is the side, And think about this when you're coaching during the game as a head coach, and Chuck No used to say this all the time, right, his job is Monday to Friday, and when he's on the sideline on Sunday, it's up to the players and what they've been doing and how they've been practicing and how they are executing based on what they did and what they learn from his coaching during the week. What's
Jim Harbough doing on the sidelines fourth down? Calls timeouts? Right, this is obviously a heightened example that his coaching staff is going to have to manage. But this team is in a different place mentally, like they feel aggrieved. Right remember Ryan Day getting mocked Ohio against the world when they needed a miracle to beat Notre Dame. This really does feel like to the Michigan players and the Michigan coaching staff Misschig against the world. The guy has been suspended.
The guy's been suspended multiple times this year, and like they keep winning, people keep coming after them. I like Michigan here.
Happy Thanksgiving to the Action Network you Chad Millman, four days of football. Can't wait. Such a good time of the year. This is I'm not a big fan of wearing sweaters and sitting into in a hot kitchen, so I don't love Thanksgiving. But I'll say this, I think the Michigan Ohio State game may get eighteen million viewers. I don't remember a college football regular season game that felt like this. There was a Georgia Bama game a
few years ago that was close. Georgia hadn't won a title yet, and we kind of felt like, yes was their team. But it's weird being on the Michigan side because if you're on the Michigan side, you are labeled as a cheater. And of course I have always been morally flexible, like all of us are, I just acknowledge it. Yes, so we we all speed. We've all written off a glass of wine that really wasn't supposed to be on our taxes. We've all we've all, you know, shoplifted major appliances.
I mean those kind of things. I tend to think with Harbaugh, Like Pete Carroll at SC He's always been a push the envelope guy. And I think College Sports Bill self falls into this. Remember the remember the claims. I think Jim Beaheim, I think I think the NFL would be far more punitive and they police you more arduously. But the nc double A is this fuzzy, nebulous bureaucracy where everybody suspects their neighbor is cheating a little, So I think it it promotes pushed the envelope among staffs.
So I don't view myself as a morally this is not a morally conclusive stand that I'm backing a cheater. It is a push the envelope industry on Wall Street. You don't think guys go to lunch and share information. It's called insider trading. You think Martha Stewart was the last one to really do it, of note, And I think there are industries. I remember when I worked at ESPN, and you're supposed to leave a window open for rivals
to compete for contracts. So if you have the NBA, you can't renegotiate that there's a window where Fox or NBC or CBS could come in. I really think that's how it works. I really think presidents aren't going to dinner with commissioners stop and buy for cigars some cognac. So I just think there are industries. Tech is another one. You read the Steve Jobs Walter Isaacson biography. It's day to day you're pushing stuff. It's it's poker playing, it's bluffs.
It's a bit of a grift, and so I think college sports almost promotes it with this fuzzy bureaucracy that gives unequal punitive punishment to certain programs. It's the old tark joke. The NCAA was so mad at Kentucky they put Cleveland State on probation.
So it's like, I.
Don't think I'm backing a cheater. I think he went over the line. Instead of going seventy eight on the freeway, it was ninety four with his middle finger out of the conference. But I'm not deeply bothered by it.
So look, Colin, we've all crushed up sleeping pills, put it in our parents' food, and then used their hand to sign the will that used to be going to your sister and now it's going to you. That's totally fine. I never understood what the big deal was with this particular scandal because the saying goes, if he ain't ain't cheating, you ain't trying. Like we're going up in arms about sign stealing. Every single coach covers their mouth when they
are putting the play into the game. You know why they do that because they know somebody's watching and is going to try to steal the sign.
Like Also, also, everybody changes their signs and signals for big games. You know, Super Bowl, playoff games, Rose Bowl, Auburn Alabama. Those are the games you change. Ask Peyton Manning, you change the signs for those games? Now you can use them back to back if you're hosting Rutgers in Maryland. Okay, those games aren't on national TV. But the reality is these big spot games, Peyton Manning isn't doing the same signals that these guys change for playoff games, division rivalry game.
When you're playing the Ravens the second time, if you're the Steelers, you're not using the same signs, same audibles. Stuff changes constantly.
Collan, We've all broken into We've all broken into a colleagues email to send really inappropriate comments to your boss when you're both going for the same promotion. It's totally fine. That's what people do in the game of life, in the game of professional media, and in the game of football. You steal signs.
Hoppy Thanksgiving to you, brother.
The volume.
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