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your first purchase. Terms apply again, create an account. The redeem code is Colin Coli in twenty dollars off your first purchase, download game Tied and today last minute deals, lowest prices, guaranteed game time. Well, hi, everybody, Chad Milman is going to come in sharp or square. Actually like the board this week. Had a winning week last week at three and two on Blazing five four and one pre Thanksgiving, so we've hit seven of our last ten picks.
Feel good about it and it's a pretty good board this week as well. I think the interesting story today is Tyler Dunn, who is connected covers the Packers and the Buffalo Bills, has a story today. It's part of a three part series on Sean McDermott and how he has worn out as welcome in Buffalo. And there's a lot of you know, anonymous sourcing that I trust with Tyler Dunn on players saying he's rigid, he's a blamer.
You know, that's why the defensive coordinator is quit. He fashions himself as a great leader but doesn't inspire players. But the most damning part of the article to me and something I've talked about so often that I do worry that it's just it's fatiguing to the audience. His defensive coaches do not have relationships with quarterbacks. We've seen Mac Jones and Belichick regress terribly, Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson really bad, Mike Zimmer and Kirk Cousins reportedly huge
fissures in that relationship. In the Tyler Dunn story. The part that would really concern me is the quote that Sean McDermott all these years with Josh Allen doesn't really have a great relationship. H hmm. That's why Josh Allen has regressed since Brian Dabole left, and we've talked about it on FS one. If you look at the coaches who have had to deal with backup quarterback situations this year, Shane Steike and Colts, they're winning with Gardner Minshew Zach Taylor,
Jake Browning just beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville. You know, I mean, Brock Purdy started his career with Shanahan as a backup, Kevin Stefanski with Joe Flakeel last week surprisingly capable. You look at defensive coaches who have to deal with backups Belichick and Bailey Zappi, Dennis Allen having to deal with Jamis Winston and New Orleans. So there is a thread here. Offensive coaches consistently have better relationships, not surprisingly
with their quarterback. But when your quarterback is Josh Allen, you got to get it right. And in that Tyler Dunn article, McDermott has no real tight relationship with his star quarterback. And listen, you just don't see very often he's a blamer in the article, a defensive coordinator resign like Leslie Fraser, a respected guy. This year they blamed
Ken Dorsey. He gets fired. So Buffalo's a small market, a very small market by pro sports franchise market comps, and so I have my questions whether they'd fire him or not. But the reason I talk about this it leads me to the second story, which is Jim Harbaugh is negotiating an eleven and a half million dollar a year deal with Michigan. I think the only great job available in the NFL is potentially the Buffalo Bill's job. The Chargers would be a good job at Brandon Staley
hasn't been fired, and the Dean Spano's children. The boys are upstairs in the front office, which has scared off other coaches. It's not ideal you will get much of a say in personnel, which Harbaugh wants. Buffalo is different. They have drafted pretty well, not great, but what they're missing is somebody to build a consistently good run game and o line. That is exactly what Jim Harbaugh has
done with the Niners, with Stanford and with Michigan. What the Bills lack as a coach, vision, quarterback elevation, physicality, and a consistent run game, That's exactly what Harbaugh does. So Jim Harra to Buffalo is a perfect fit. The defense is good enough, the roster is good enough, there are things they do well. But how many years does this defensive coach get to use alibis to explain the inability to run the ball consistently. Also struggling to run
the ball consistently defensive coach Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh. So it's a pattern. The tighter Doun story is eye opening. Check it out on Bill's coach Sean McDermott does not paint a pretty picture and in line with that, juxtaposed with a Jim Harbaugh News. If I was Jim Harbaugh, I would accept Michigan's offer. I don't think there's a great job out there. You get about one great job opening every three or four years. Cowboys, Mike McCarthy job.
You get Dak the Old Line, a committed franchise, good money, great city, good job, Matt Lafleur, Packers, Aaron Rodgers late Prime, great job. Not many you can say, oh, oh, well, look at Pete Carroll took the Seahawks. They didn't have quarterback right. Pete couldn't get the quarterback right for a couple of years. That looks like a good franchise. Was it when he took it over? Oh? The Houston Texans were a mess. Demiko Ryans is great and C. J.
Stroud has been shockingly good. It's not a good job most of these openings. You've got an owner issue, a roster issue, or a pressure and unrealistic expectation issue. Like Carolina. Bill's not only a great job opening because of Josh Allen steady ownership, good roster, Belichick's leaving soon. Aaron Rodgers' situation is still a mess. Tua his they haven't given him an extension, so you don't really know. If the organization's all in on Tua, who has been historically injury prone,
that's the only job. If I'm our Baugh, I pause on the Michigan contract offer. Other than that, I'd sign it tomorrow. All right, Time for another edition of Sharper Square. Chad Milman, c CEO, Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings. You're in Vegas, and I have a feeling I know what you're going to talk about, which is something of friends and I have discussed doing over the next six to eight weeks, which is the giant eyeball in the
sky the sphere. And you went to it and watched the U two show, right.
I did, and I gotta tell you it was everything everybody says. It is worth any amount of hassle to do it. You're talking to friends about doing it. I went with friends last night. Obviously, the NFL is a crazy bas of time for me. It's a crazy busy of time for you. I went with a buddy who also covers the NFL for ESPN, and another friend of ours, and it's one of those things you can probably appreciate this. We all love the three of us, love you too.
And we had talked during the summer, we're gonna go, We're gonna get tickets, and then like you start to realize the season's coming up. It's impossible to find a twenty four hour window where like you can fly from the east coast to the west coast and do this, and like we get lazy, and one of the guys has two kids under five, and so it's just like and then all of a sudden, the videos started coming out from the sphere and we were like, what are
we doing? Why, Like, any amount of hassle will be worth it, and it is incredibly painful and entirely worth it is. It is astonishing, it's tremendous.
So basically what you're seeing it looks live. It's not, but it's a look live concert.
Well, no, they're there, I mean they're playing, but the backdrop is this kaleidoscope of images that ranges from this crazy Elvis collage that plays behind even better than the real thing. You know, their song, and then they get to where the streets have no name and it turns into complete desert Nevada landscape and it goes like that up and down sort of the visual cues throughout the
entire show, and it's mostly their Actung Baby album. There's a little bit of rattle and humming there, and then in the end they just they play off with the hits and it's well, they know what they're doing. What's interesting to me, if we want to get into the weeds on YouTube here they highlight the Edge and his guitar playing visually so much in this show. I'm like twenty story screens and it is incredible to watch. I can't recommend it enough if you can get there.
Yeah, I thought it was. I thought you two, This was my perception of what the sphere was. You two performed for two weeks. They taped it and then they weren't gonna stay there forever, and you'd get a tape of it.
Well, look, the I think what they do and I've got some insight intel on this is they will fly in on Wednesdays from LA, leave Wednesday night, come back Friday, stay Friday, Saturday, leave back to LA after that, so they're not always here, but for the shows they are coming in that's exciting. Yeah.
Then you're doing the NBA In Season Tournament tonight.
NBA In Season Tournament as soon as we're done, I'm going to head over to T Mobile and watching a couple of semi final games. It's gonna be awesome.
All right, let's start sharp square. So let's go underdogs first. I'm prone to like underdogs. Saints are all beat up. You got a new coaching staff with the Panthers trying to impress the owner who's an impulsive, impatient man. Saints have been an underachieving team all year. I'm going to take Bryce Young plus five against the division rival Sharper Square.
Totally sharp play. This one has been moving Colin. This line opened at six and a half on Sunday. Wise guys immediately started betting it. By Monday morning, it's down to five. Right, and look, nobody thinks the Saints are what the Saints were expected to be in the beginning of the year. Jamis Winston He's eight and nineteen against the spread as a favorite in his career. Dennis Allen one of the most unprofitable coaches against the spread in his tenure of the past twenty years. That are one
to nine this year as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Panthers defense has been improving. They got j cd hornback last week. He is a difference maker in the backfield, defensive backfield, and the Saints just haven't been very good, like everyone talks about their defense. Defense is like thirtieth in EPA per play in the past six weeks. So not a good spot for the Saints, and that's why the wise guys are playing them all.
Right, Denver plus three Last week against a really, really well coached defense, they got turnover prone, but the previous four to five weeks they weren't. There are limitations to the offense, but they're not a turnover heavy offense. They were last week on the road. The Chargers don't create turnovers. I thought that the performance against New England was staggeringly bad, shockingly it's as if the locker room quit. But the
Patriots were so bad they still couldn't beat them. I would take the Broncos in a rivalry game here plus three sharper square.
Yeah, definitely the sharp side. Nobody likes to bet the Chargers as favorites. Even last week the wise guys were betting the Patriots and they got you know, unfortunately, it's basically a bad beat. There's a baseball scorer six to nothing in the line started at six and moved on a little bit similar here, Like we're talking about a division underdog. Last five years, they cover fifty seven percent of the spread fifty percent of the time when they
are the road dog. The Broncos last week, aside, they had their moments, they had a shot to cover and win against the Texans, even playing terribly. So now they're getting a much better coach in a smash spot for the wise guys, they are on the Broncos.
Seahawks plus ten and a half at the Niners Philadelphia's That win is impressive. As we've often talked about after a great win, teams pull back Seattle at six and six, and the Rams are coming hard, desperate. You know, I'm not a Gino Smith fan, but there's weapons here. This is a rivalry game. It's the season first seas. I thought this was one of my favorite picks on the board. Sharper square, totally sharp. What's interesting here is this number.
It's kind of stabilized on Sunday night, opened about twelve, twelve and a half thirteen. Immediately that number got bet down, and you do have a lot of things here. Look you, it is as high as high as it gets on the Niners right now, right their four game win streak when Deebo and Trent Williams are playing, they are nine to zero.
They are beating teams by three touchdowns when that duo is on the field. Brock Purty, well, it's invincible when those guys are playing and he has those weapons. Here's the challenge. They are coming off that Eagles win. That's why the number opened so high. That's why the wise guys immediately bet it down to ten and a half. Again, road dogs in the division the past five years, fifty seven percent against the spread. You're playing with fire because we do have a lot of evidence how good the
Niners have been. As a professional vetter, you have to take the Seahawks in this spot. The President will tell you long term that is a value play.
Okay, So I've had this theory that if you don't have a quarterback on your roster that can duplicate to some degree Lamar Jackson and you're an NFC team, you're screwed going to Baltimore. Seattle got buried, Detroit got buried. Matt Stafford is going to get buried. The Rams have been doing it. They face the backup quarterbacks some pretty lousy defenses there. They've been at home. Rough spot for an NFC traveling to a different time zone early game. I love the line at minus seven. Don't love it
as much at minus seven and a half. But Baltimore's done this time and time again as a home favored against West Coast teams. Ravens minus seven and a half.
Sharper square well at seven and a half, it's square at seven. It's neutral. There's no huge consensus here. The Rams are getting played at seven and a half. There's a couple things that are tempting the wise guys. Seven and a half is just a huge number, right. You can easily see the Rams are down by two touchdowns. Game is out of reach. They got two minutes left. You know Sean mcvaigh is not going to take his foot off the gas. Matthew Stafford in that spot. Can
we get find his receivers. The Ravens are playing a little bit more lax and they cover the back door at seven and a half because you know you got the hook at seven. It's a little bit more cautious for the Wise guys. There's one factor here. Lamar Jackson as a favorite of more than three is not very good. Twenty one and thirty one against spread, so and Lamar Jackson is a favorite more than three at home not very good. John Harbaugh historically incredibly profitable, not very good
as a favorite of more than three at home. So this is not a great spot for the Ravens. However, they have been turning it around a little bit this year. That Colts game, I think was an anomaly. We saw with the Seahawks, we saw with the Lions, but don't remember, don't forget those games were under a touchdown. So you're playing with fire if you're gonna take seven and a half.
One of my favorite lines of the week. Now the line's gotten a little out of hand, but Cleveland minus three and a half. So Christian Kirk surgery out Trevor Lawrence out CJ. Bethard against one of the best defenses in ten years, and the Cleveland defense much better at home. If you watch the Browns ate of the Browns Rams game, Joe Flackau was good, shockingly good. Offensive coaches taking back up quarterbacks this year, and I can give you six
It's worked quickly. Kevin O'Connell Dobbs worked quickly. I'm gonna take the Browns to cover. I think it's a blowout. I think they blow out a Jags team. CJ. Bethard is a borderline NFL guy. Sharper square.
Well, it's sharp, and that's why the number has moved so aggressively, like it moved obviously when the Trevor Lawie injury happened. And you know now knowing it's going to be CJ. Bethler. But don't forget. You've lost Christian Kirk, You've lost Cam Robinson. They've lost people on defense, which was already a bad secondary. Now you're going to have a massive amount of wind and rain in a game
that is going to be very, very ugly. This defense for the Browns is different at home ten points per game at home, thirty points per game on the road. They are relatively healthy. Forget about Joe Flacco for a second. You're just talking about the advantages that Cleveland has at the defensive unit playing against a litany of backups for the Jags. So the wise guys have continued to play this and they're still playing at three and a half.
Another damaging story comes out about Sean McDermott, how one of his coaches got a truck paid for by players. It's just bad pr end of last season to now with the Bills, Kansas City lost to a really red hot Jordan Love. I think the Packers now are playing really good. I think there were bad PI miss by the officials from scoring a tying touchdown. So I think we're overplaying because it was a wildly popular game and
highly viewed. We're overplaying the problems with the Chiefs. They are favored by only one and a half against the Bills, who I just think, going back to last year's playoff game, are a bit of a mess inside the walls of that organization. I'll take Kansas City to cover Sharper Square.
Well, look, the line has moved in the Bills direction before this story that you're referring to came out, and this line opened at three, immediately got that down to two and a half, then two, then one and a half some places, one, which to me is insane, and I think it is a huge overreaction to the troubles that Kansas City has had, like you said, and also in overreaction to the Bills being competitive against the Eagles, losing a really bad game, having the week off and
now needing to win this game to get to the playoffs. Haven't the Bills been desperate for like a month and it hasn't mattered, right, So why is this game going to be any different? And to your point about Patrick Mahomes, Look, I bet the Packers plus six last week on Monday Night, and there is nothing that feels worse than having the
team that is playing against Patrick Mahomes. When Patrick Mahomes has the ball at the end of the game, and look, he made a bad pass, he got beat on that interception, but you're right one pi away from probably getting to the end zone and making that at twenty seven twenty seven game. I don't want to bet against Patrick Mahomes as less than a field goal favorite in November and December when he's at home. So if you're telling me I got to get Patrick Mahomes and he's just got
to win by one point, come on. Of course we're taking the Chiefs.
All right, it's time to talk me into this one. Eagles plus three and a half, despite the fact they will have played the Cowboys and the Bills and the Niners and the Cowboys again and all these tough teams Kansas City mixed in. There is a fatigue, right, but I do think it's being overvalued. This is a good team that had won twenty four of twenty six, cold leading trailing warm Windy. They win three and a half
divisional game, Cowboys may win. But the hook I'd take, why isn't everybody seeing this as an obvious Eagles play.
Part of it is scheme. The Eagles have been exposed in the middle of their defense. They just can't cover, and we saw that with the forty nine Ers. They just destroyed the Eagles with a scheme that can be very similar to what the Cowboys are trying to do. Right Mike McCarthy all year talking about playing a style of West Coast offense that he had done with the Packers, and you know they're changing it up a little bit.
But if you look at what Dak is doing this year, Key and Ceede Lamb are making connections and that ability to drive the slant route and connect on that is going to be really challenging for the Eagles, especially in the middle of the defense for them. So I think that's one reason. Also the Eagles of napping and running the ball lane. Johnson injured I think that's a huge
tell for the wise guys. But the truth is, Colin, you look at every metric, you look at number of bets, you look at an amount of money, it's pretty split fifty to fifty, which is why this thing has basically stayed where it is. There was the initial push opened at two and a half. Wise guys took the two, they took the three, and now it's at three and a half. It hasn't gone up to four because everything is basically stabilized. So I think this is where it's
going to be for a little while. No consensus. I'm on the Cowboys for what it's worth.
All right. Finally, dumpster diving, what's the game I missed?
Well, look, we got two options here. One. I can't believe you didn't bring up the Bears getting three and a half at.
Now, that's an interesting one, so talk about that.
To me, this is a no brainer. And the Bears opened at five, Wise guys bet it down immediately. It settled at three and a half within about twenty four to forty hours. Number One, the Bears defense has been playing really, really well the past seven weeks compared to the Lions defense, which has been getting shredded, and they're missing McNeil in the middle of their defensive line. That is a huge impact that people who know football are
talking a lot about. So now you're getting a team on the road, playing in Chicago where weather is going to be a factor. Jared both in his career averaging less than fourteen points per game when the weather is under fifty degrees against a team in justin field a lot of our po We've seen what they've been doing when he is on the field since his injury, a lot more running. They kept this game close against the lines two weeks ago. They beat the Vikings last week.
This Bears team doesn't get credit for how much more it's improved since the bye week. So the wise guys are on the Bears one more. Well, you mentioned backup quarterbacks and you talked about sort of they're getting these opportunities to shine quickly. Jake Browning did not play well in his first game against the Steelers, but he played very well in his second game against the Jags. Very accurate. Look at what this Colts team has done. Who have
they beaten up? The Panthers, the Patriots very lucky against the Titans last week to get a win and continue this winning streak. So is this a Jake Browning spot? The wise guys think so. The wise guys have been betting this game down. The Bengals opened about two to two and a half. It's now down to one. I think if you can get the Bengals as an underdog, you still take it.
Chad Milman. All odds provided by DraftKings CCO Action Network. Enjoy NBA in season tournament and thanks for the update on the sphere.
You bet, brother, I hope you make it. You got to get there.
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