In this video, Joe walks through bombshell developments last week in the political sphere surrounding bitcoin. He discusses the announcement that Donald Trump is reportedly considering bitcoin to address the U.S.' $35-trillion debt problem. He also breaks down the U.S. debt problem and why it has become so unsustainable, showing the trajectory of our debt growth and providing an analogy for viewers to better understand it. He discusses how this would be the first instance of a G20 nation purchas...
May 29, 2024•19 min•Ep. 35
In this episode, Nik is joined by bitcoin on-chain analyst James Check (Checkmate). They present an overview of realized price and MVRV, two of bitcoin's foundational on-chain metrics to help people understand the importance of this new study. Checkmate presents bitcoin market analysis and his highest signal on-chain charts to demonstrate why he believes bitcoin is exhibiting classic bull market behavior. Nik finishes with some bullish thoughts on bitcoin's maturation. The Bitcoin Layer is broug...
May 23, 2024•47 min•Ep. 34
In today's video, Joe discusses the latest developments in bitcoin and the broader ecosystem. In the last 24 hours, the SEC has pivoted from not approving a spot Ethereum ETF to fast-tracking its approval, causing Ethereum to jump 20% and ETH/BTC to move above 0.05. He discusses how the House and Senate are now majorly pro-crypto, passing 3 separate bills in the last 10 days in support of the ecosystem. Finally, Joe wraps it all up with a look at bitcoin's bull flag breakout, signaling a bull ma...
May 21, 2024•18 min•Ep. 33
In this episode, Nik summarizes his recent conversation with CrossBorder Capital founder Michael Howell. After Nik interviewed Michael on May 9th, viewers asked us for more education surrounding some of the key concepts covered, including how to understand Howell's liquidity index itself, Treasury bill monetization by banks, and duration's impact on financial markets. Nik concludes with why global liquidity matters for bitcoin. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com...
May 21, 2024•41 min•Ep. 32
In this episode, Nik is joined by Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. Eric details the records shattered by BlackRock's and Fidelity's bitcoin ETFs, explains why bitcoin gives investors portfolio completion, and forecasts the next couple years of institutional demand. He also opines on the latest disclosures showing that hedge funds and pension funds have started purchasing bitcoin ETFs. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bo...
May 17, 2024•35 min•Ep. 31
In this episode, Nik delivers a global macro update after CPI misses expectations and bitcoin jumps over 5%. He starts with the latest inflation data and weighs policy motivations at the Federal Reserve. After recapping inflation and very poor retail sales data, Nik goes through the candlesticks of Treasuries, stocks, and bitcoin to measure the market's reaction, which is bullish due to the promise of more liquidity and rate cuts this year. He also notes that TBL is on recession watch and Ethere...
May 15, 2024•43 min•Ep. 30
In this video, Joe provides a timely bitcoin update after more sideways price action. He covers GameStop's surprise resurgence, why credit spreads are still low and can stay there for a while, miner economics, spending behavior, and why bitcoin stands to chop higher through the summer given the favorable macro and liquidity backdrop. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bitcoin when you buy. Subscribe and turn on notifications for ...
May 14, 2024•13 min•Ep. 29
In this episode, Nik is joined by Crypto.com's head of legal Justin Wales. He is the author of a new book, The Crypto Legal Handbook, an overview of the laws and regulations surrounding the young industry of digital assets. A long time bitcoiner, Justin walks us through the industry's latest legislative battles against the SEC and the notable victory in Congress from a bipartisan contingent to block the SEC's anti-crypto agenda. He concludes that the future is bright for bitcoin regulation in th...
May 13, 2024•26 min•Ep. 28
In this episode, Nik and Joe are joined by CrossBorder Capital founder and Capital Wars author Michael Howell. In a wide ranging discussion on liquidity, the global monetary system, and bitcoin, Michael shares his theories on how this year will play out in financial markets. We ask him about debt monetization, currency devaluation forces on Japan and China, the impact of cross-border capital flows, why bitcoin is an excellent barometer of global liquidity, and much more. The Bitcoin Layer is bro...
May 09, 2024•1 hr•Ep. 27
In this video, Joe walks through 4 bitcoin charts and 1 chart about excess savings. He breaks down the near-term price action and why we have been consolidating for 10 weeks in a row, the broader macro factors at play for the rest of the year, why the smart money have taken profits but are now holding onto their coins, and why you should zoom out and observe that the bull market is likely not even close to finished just yet. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TB...
May 07, 2024•17 min•Ep. 26
In this episode, Nik is joined by veteran investor Craig Shapiro. Craig breaks down why he is short small cap stocks by explaining how Powell is gaslighting the markets, why Yellen continues to dump Treasuries on the investing public, and how profit margins will struggle considering policy rates remain above 5%. Craig also explains why he is long bitcoin and gold. Craig's Trading Service & Writing: https://t.co/gXfJxXXnhW https://t.co/qtPWQ4dbvJ https://twitter.com/ces921 The Bitcoin Layer i...
May 06, 2024•40 min•Ep. 25
In this episode, Nik brings us a global macro update, focusing on bitcoin's correlation with the stock market, the US government's intentions on inflation, and recent weak economic data. He presents 18 charts to recap an eventful week in currency markets, what was said at the FOMC meeting and Jerome Powell press conference, and the latest US Treasury deficit funding needs. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bitcoin when you buy. ...
May 03, 2024•32 min•Ep. 24
In this episode, Nik is joined by international economist and Copenhagen Business School professor Lars Christensen. Lars presents a masterclass on foreign exchange rates, currency movements, and the international monetary system. The audience will learn about secular shifts in the Japanese economy driving currency devaluation, China's predicament of below-trend growth, why the AI revolution is boosting the natural growth rate in the United States, and how the global economy will be impacted by ...
May 02, 2024•1 hr 6 min•Ep. 23
In this episode, Nik breaks down the current devaluation of the Japanese yen. With a 27% decline since the beginning of 2022, the weakening yen is a policy decision by the government to attempt to inflate away its debt. Nik goes through charts on Japan's debt to GDP, speculates on whether this move is influenced by the United States in an effort to impact China's economy, and concludes with a chart of bitcoin priced in JPY. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL...
Apr 30, 2024•25 min•Ep. 22
In this episode, Nik brings us a global macro update to discuss recent weakness in stocks and bitcoin, and looks ahead to next week Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement. With over 30 charts from inflation to the economy to asset markets, Nik shares his analysis on the stocks/bitcoin correlation, the Fed's mistakes around rhetoric and financial conditions, and the dangers stemming from a significant devaluation of the Japanese yen. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http:/...
Apr 26, 2024•1 hr 10 min•Ep. 21
In this episode, Nik is joined by veteran investor Craig Shapiro to discuss the US Treasury debt market and what it means for the global monetary system, gold, and bitcoin. Craig explains what to look for during next week's FOMC meeting and Treasury refunding announcement, and how the balance between Treasury bills and coupons affects risk markets. He also dissects double speak out of the Fed on financial conditions and provides an epic rant on the case for bitcoin in today's global setting. Fol...
Apr 24, 2024•54 min•Ep. 20
In this episode, Nik is joined by Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast. Jack and Nik discuss their favorite books on finance and global macroeconomics. From banking history to financial markets to science fiction, Jack discusses what he loved about each book and inquires about Nik's background as a money markets and Treasury repo trader. Books and authors mentioned during this recording: Lords of Finance by Liaquat Ahamed Debt: The First 5000 Years by David Graeber Reminiscences of ...
Apr 23, 2024•54 min•Ep. 19
In this episode, Nik Bhatia and Ritik Goyal present an in-depth graduate seminar on money creation. With over a dozen examples of monetary operations, watch this episode to learn how money is created by banks, the relationship between banks and central banks, the interaction between reserves and deposits, and an overview of repo. For those looking for over an hour of balance sheet mechanics and T-chart examples, this episode is for you. Grab your pens and pencils! The Bitcoin Layer is brought to...
Apr 22, 2024•1 hr 33 min•Ep. 18
In this episode, Nik is joined by bitcoin analyst Checkmate. In a brilliant overview of measuring bitcoin price and determining cycle position, Checkmate breaks down bitcoin's novel price performance relative to traditional assets, closely examines the current round of selling at $70,000, and most importantly tells us exactly what to look for in order to identify the legitimate end of this bull market. Learn why he doesn't believe the current market is "top heavy." The Bitcoin Layer is brought t...
Apr 19, 2024•46 min•Ep. 17
In this episode, Nik is joined by veteran investor and former Goldman Sachs commodities trader Michael Kao. Michael explains the case for an upcoming currency war and competitive devaluation starting in Japan with a weakening yen. In this fantastic overview of the global monetary system's game theory, learn as Michael breaks down the decision trees for Japan, China, the ECB, & Janet Yellen and the US Treasury. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn ...
Apr 18, 2024•47 min•Ep. 16
In this episode, Joe sits down with Felix Maradiaga, the leader of the Nicaraguan Opposition Party, Human Rights Defender, and 2024 Nobel Peace Prize Nominee. Live at the 2nd Annual Bitcoin Policy Summit hosted by the Bitcoin Policy Institute, Felix discusses financial repression in Nicaragua, the modern threat of techno-dictatorships, and how bitcoin functions as the apex tool for advancing financial freedom globally. Follow the Bitcoin Policy Institute on X (@)btcpolicyorg Follow Felix on X (@...
Apr 17, 2024•17 min•Ep. 15
In this episode, Nik joined once again by portfolio manager and fixed-income expert Andy Constan. Andy explains his bearish view on the stock market as a reaction to inflation refusing to come down and the Treasury department likely to keep coupon issuance high. He also breaks down why he does not view today's situation as fiscal dominance any longer and how restrictive monetary policy will ultimately impact the economy. Andy briefly discusses Michael Howell's liquidity framework and why gold's ...
Apr 16, 2024•51 min•Ep. 14
In this episode, Joe sits down with Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, live at the Bitcoin Policy Summit in Washington DC. Alex discusses his keynote speech, why bitcoin values are American values, and how property rights are now digitally ensured. He also explains the embedded geopolitical resiliency of the bitcoin network. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bitcoin when you buy. Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL ...
Apr 15, 2024•18 min•Ep. 13
In this episode, Nik brings us a timely chart pack to discuss a wild week in financial markets. With weakness in the stock market, Nik goes through charts on bitcoin, the dollar versus euro and Asian currencies, the latest in Japanese yen weakness, China's currency prospects, US & global debt to GDP, the latest inflation numbers, and recession likelihood. Throughout, Nik wonders if there is a major shift underway in the global monetary system. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Vi...
Apr 13, 2024•57 min•Ep. 12
In this episode, Nik is joined by ResiClub co-founder Lance Lambert to discuss the US residential housing market. Lance explains why he is labeling the housing market 'constrained,' including how high mortgage rates are limiting buyer affordability while trapping sellers who don't want to give up sub-4% notes. He also breaks down regional differences in the market, addresses short-term rentals (AirBnB), and contrasts multi-family properties to residential housing. https://www.resiclubanalytics.c...
Apr 11, 2024•46 min•Ep. 11
In this episode, Joe sits down with Matthew Pines, Director of Security Advisory at Sentinel One National Security Fellow. Live at the 2nd Annual Bitcoin Policy Summit hosted by the Bitcoin Policy Institute, Matt delivers his geopolitical analysis, discusses how American companies are working directly with eastern countries, the US-China cold war that is brewing on the tech, trade, and currency fronts, and how complacency with BTC policy will severely set the United States back on the global sta...
Apr 10, 2024•23 min•Ep. 10
In this episode, Nik is joined by veteran trader Craig Shapiro to discuss the diminishing role of the dollar in international trade settlement. Craig introduces the petrodollar as an instrument in marginal decline since 2022, why China is resisting US calls for it to revalue its currency stronger, and how gold is responding to a new international monetary system. Learn why the oil trade, Treasury yield curve, and gold's new all-time high are all related. Follow Craig's Writing: https://substack....
Apr 09, 2024•42 min•Ep. 9
In this episode, Nik teaches us about how bank deposits, money market funds, and Treasury securities interact with Fed reserves. After explanations on financial plumbing, he proceeds to break down recent economic data and explain why stocks and real estate have had great starts to 2024. He finishes with bitcoin price and valuation analysis. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bitcoin when you buy. Subscribe and turn on notificatio...
Apr 08, 2024•27 min•Ep. 8
In this episode, Nik is joined by Bitcoin historian Pete Rizzo on Satoshi Nakamoto's birthday. Pete explains the history of Satoshi's April 5 birthday and its significance, speaks to Bitcoin's origins by diving into the cypherpunk movement, and breaks down early Satoshi email and online communication for a better understanding of his motivations. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bitcoin when you buy. Subscribe and turn on notif...
Apr 05, 2024•41 min•Ep. 7
In this episode, Nik is joined by Cognitive Investments partner Jacob Shapiro to discuss India. Jacob helps us understand the Indian political scene and gives background on the rise of current Prime Minister Narendra Modi. We ask Jacob about India's economic future and whether politics will help or hurt the country's growth aspirations. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bitcoin when you buy. Subscribe and turn on notifications f...
Apr 03, 2024•21 min•Ep. 6
