In this episode, Joe and Nik sit down with Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming for a detailed discussion of the United States' unsustainable debt problem, and how Bitcoin can help address it. Senator Lummis discusses the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), how Bitcoin can strengthen the US dollar's position as the world reserve currency, the geographic distribution of the SBR's private keys, what Proof of Reserves for the SBR will look like, and how holding Bitcoin on the United St...
Aug 01, 2024•33 min•Ep. 65
In this video, Joe breaks down all of the mania surrounding bitcoin over the last 72 hours. He first discusses Trump's proposed Strategic National Bitcoin Stockpile, alongside Senator Cynthia Lummis' bill to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. He then breaks the news that the Biden-Harris administration has likely begun the sale of the US' existing bitcoin holdings, moving $2 billion into a new wallet for a likely OTC sale to thwart Trump's plans of a reserve using our existing seized BTC holdin...
Jul 30, 2024•18 min•Ep. 64
In this episode, Nik is joined again by on-chain and bitcoin analyst Checkmate for a markets overview. The pair discuss bitcoin's 28% correction and recovery, ETF inflows, the basis trade across CME, Binance, spot exchanges, and ETFs, as well as the maturation of bitcoin's market structure. Checkmate concludes that bitcoin exhibits textbook demand through established limit orders. The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by...
Jul 24, 2024•55 min•Ep. 63
In this episode, Nik is joined again by on-chain and bitcoin analyst Checkmate for a markets overview. The pair discuss bitcoin's 28% correction and recovery, ETF inflows, the basis trade across CME, Binance, spot exchanges, and ETFs, as well as the maturation of bitcoin's market structure. Checkmate concludes that bitcoin exhibits textbook demand through established limit orders. The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by...
Jul 24, 2024•55 min•Ep. 62
In this episode, Joe brings us a bitcoin update. We discuss bitcoin's resilience after the most eventful 2-week period in modern history, a remarkable $500-million inflow to BlackRock's bitcoin ETF on Monday, and more. He also discusses BlackRock and Fidelity taking 4th and 8th place in YTD inflows across all ETFs in US markets. With unprecedented demand from Wall Street and credit spreads still at cycle lows, all signals suggest that the bulk of bitcoin's bull run still has yet to begin. The Bi...
Jul 23, 2024•19 min•Ep. 61
In this episode, Nik brings us a markets update on bitcoin and traditional assets. We discuss the potential for bitcoin to become a strategic asset for the United States, BTC's 20% price pop after the early July selloff, and introduce our TBL Liquidity indicator to measure the world's monetary firepower. Nik also analyzes the latest moves in gold, oil, and Treasury yields. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to...
Jul 19, 2024•24 min•Ep. 59
In this episode, Nik brings us a timely update on the path of interest rates in the United States, including a look at Treasury yields and the yield curve, an exploration into the "Trump trade" of a yield curve steepener, the latest with Fed cut expectations, and some bitcoin valuation analysis. Make sure you get your mortgage refinance applications ready, as rates are coming down. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowe...
Jul 18, 2024•21 min•Ep. 60
In this episode, Nik brings us a timely update on the path of interest rates in the United States, including a look at Treasury yields and the yield curve, an exploration into the "Trump trade" of a yield curve steepener, the latest with Fed cut expectations, and some bitcoin valuation analysis. Make sure you get your mortgage refinance applications ready, as rates are coming down. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowe...
Jul 18, 2024•21 min•Ep. 58
In this video, Joe discusses bitcoin's 2.5% pop following Saturday's assassination attempt and tragedy, and the 11% gain in the days since. Trump has been an outwardly pro-bitcoin candidate, stressing the importance of bitcoin self-custody and mining as a way to bolster U.S. energy independence. He walks through all of the positive statements Trump has made about BTC on the campaign trail. He also discusses JD Vance, the Senator that Trump has chosen for VP, and his pro-bitcoin policies enacted ...
Jul 16, 2024•19 min•Ep. 57
In this episode, Nik delivers a global macro update focused on the Fed cutting rates in September. He explains why the Fed is now officially locked in on rate cuts, offers insights on the signal we gain from Treasury yields, touches on the strength in stocks and the volatility in bitcoin, and finishes with a recap of the latest CPI inflation release and the power of falling rents. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empower...
Jul 12, 2024•32 min•Ep. 56
In this episode, Nik is joined by author Saifedean Ammous for a masterclass on economics. Saifedean teaches us about the importance of property rights in a capitalistic system and why anti-capitalist rhetoric can be so dangerous. He also explains the role of bitcoin, allowing people to properly save instead of consume. Limited government, taxes, and privately-funded infrastructure are also discussed. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial service...
Jul 11, 2024•53 min•Ep. 55
In this video, Joe walks through how bitcoin's 4-week 25% correction may be coming to a close. Despite Mt. Gox now redistributing 94,500 BTC, and the German government selling $21 billion in BTC over the weekend, bitcoin managed to spring off of the low-$50,000 level. Factors that have been headwinds for BTC over the last month are no longer hurting its market price, and after a 7.5% weekly drop, the 4th largest since FTX collapsed, bitcoin may have just set a local bottom for the remainder of t...
Jul 10, 2024•19 min•Ep. 54
In this episode, Nik delivers a global macroeconomic update after the all-important ISM manufacturing and services surveys, and a close technical look at bitcoin, stocks, and Treasury yields. We remain on recession watch after a scary ISM services contraction and multi-year high in unemployment claims. Stay to the end of the episode for Nik's crucial bitcoin technical area to watch. Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlaye...
Jul 04, 2024•19 min•Ep. 53
In this episode, Joe walks through four important bitcoin charts before the long 4th of July weekend gets underway. He looks at ETF buyers re-entering the market after a 3-week slump, forecasting that bitcoin may be slated to break its consolidation. He suggests that BTC will likely resume its bull run due to the S&P 500 correlation with BTC dropping rapidly. He takes a look at BTC dominance relative to crypto to make the assertion that, judging by past cycles, the bulk of bitcoin's bull run...
Jul 02, 2024•13 min•Ep. 52
In this episode, Nik is joined by Peak Vortex Capital co-founder Shash Aryal to discuss the commercial real estate market. As a distressed CRE investor, Shash brings an on-the-ground knowledge of the latest economics in office buildings, multifamily residential, and data centers and presents an informative chart pack with the most important CRE numbers. He explains why equity for many projects has been wiped out, details the apartment bubble in the Sunbelt, cites AI compute and data center proje...
Jul 01, 2024•26 min•Ep. 51
In this episode, Nik is joined by housing analyst Melody Wright to discuss the US residential real estate market. In a sweeping analysis of why the housing market is heading for a very troublesome 2025, Melody details the inventory issues in Texas and Florida due to pocket listings, private equity, and other forms of distressed borrowing arrangements. She also explains what Americans should do in their search for a home, especially in new construction. Also discussed are millennials' investments...
Jun 28, 2024•37 min•Ep. 50
In this episode, Nik is joined by real estate developer Kelly Lannan to discuss his vision of Bitcoin Urbanism. Kelly walks us through a history of residential real estate in the United States and skillfully explains why government policies and central banking have driven extreme distortion. He covers the reasons for a drop in building quality, describes the multi-trillion dollar infrastructure gap, and concludes with a vision of how bitcoin can contribute to a renewal of beauty and craftsmanshi...
Jun 28, 2024•1 hr 3 min•Ep. 49
In this video, Joe explores several crucial factors influencing the bitcoin market. He begins by addressing the Mt. Gox FUD and its historical impact on Bitcoin's price, explaining why most creditors are unlikely to sell their recovered Bitcoin. Joe then discusses recent net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and their connection to declining cash-and-carry trade premiums. He briefly touches on NVIDIA's recent market performance before delving into a price study of Bitcoin's moving averages. A significa...
Jun 25, 2024•23 min•Ep. 48
In this episode, Nik is joined by Marathon Digital Holdings CEO Fred Thiel. Fred shares details surrounding the company's historical bitcoin mining agreement with the Kenyan government, skillfully describes the global energy landscape in the AI era, and details why bitcoin is a revolutionary force in the future of energy consumption. Heating homes in Finland, anaerobic digestion of methane, and the global deficiency of electricity transmission are also discussed. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to ...
Jun 20, 2024•43 min•Ep. 47
In this episode, Nik answers a question from the audience about bitcoin's purpose on our hectic financial world. We present the case for bitcoin as a tool for wealth preservation. By comparing bitcoin to money, currency, commodities, properties, and assets, we conclude that bitcoin's most valuable characteristic is helping people achieve deflation in a highly inflationary world. Nik discusses bitcoin and equity correlation, $100 trillion in global bank assets, and presents incredible charts on a...
Jun 20, 2024•29 min•Ep. 46
In this video, Joe walks through why bitcoin did not break above the low-$70,000 range despite having the setup for it. He talks about what's next for bitcoin as it approaches a key support level called Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STHRP). STHRP has served both as a floor for bitcoin to bounce off of during prior bull runs, but also as confirmation of a downtrend if bitcoin makes a sustained moved below it. You won't want to miss this episode. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. V...
Jun 18, 2024•15 min•Ep. 45
In this episode, Joe sits down with Drew Armstrong, president and chairman of Cathedra Bitcoin, a publicly traded bitcoin miner on the Canadian Stock Exchange. Drew takes Joe through a mining masterclass. They discuss how mining public companies raise money, how the landscape is evolving, hashprice, hash rate migrating from the US, how miners are consolidating, and how L2s, Runes, and other things demanding bitcoin blockspace accelerate the development of scaling solutions so that bitcoin fulfil...
Jun 14, 2024•1 hr 4 min•Ep. 44
In this episode, Joe walks through an action-packed day in macro. The CPI print for last month came in cooler than analyst estimates, led by the shelter component which saw its first monthly decline in 3 years. Following the cool CPI data, rate expectations fell and risk assets popped, but Powell was quick to temper dovish hopes with his press conference in the afternoon. Though the Fed is content with the path of inflation, it is not satisfied with the level still being well above its 2% target...
Jun 12, 2024•27 min•Ep. 43
In this episode, Nik delivers a full explainer on Treasury money printing and the monetization of T-bills by banks. In another follow up episode to the recent series on Michael Howell's liquidity framework, we walk through examples of how the Treasury creates money when it borrows and spend, and compare that to the primary dealer financing of Treasuries via repo investments from money market funds (MMFs). The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $10...
Jun 10, 2024•26 min•Ep. 42
In this episode, Nik recaps an eventful week in economic releases and bitcoin price movement. He explains the latest developments in the labor market, analyzes bitcoin fundamentals and price behavior, considers the election's impact on Treasuries, and concludes with an opinion on the state of the Fed's ample reserves framework. His ultimate conclusion is that the Fed will be forced to expand its balance sheet. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up t...
Jun 07, 2024•35 min•Ep. 41
In this episode, Nik breaks down a Wall Street Journal opinion piece about the Fed's balance sheet. While explaining Fed policy rates, the repo market, and why wholesale repo funding is the most important component of financial plumbing, Nik describes how the Fed could use the timing of Fedwire payments as an indication of reserve scarcity. This an a very educational episode for those interested in Fed policy mechanics and monetary plumbing. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit ht...
Jun 06, 2024•38 min•Ep. 40
In this video, Joe walks through several bitcoin charts to make the case that we're breaking out and moving to and through new all-time highs. He discusses some price action technical analysis, the descending channel bitcoin is trying to break above, the momentum that BTC has built underneath it, and the solid launchpad to take off from with very little froth in the futures market. He concludes with the dismal macro data of late, and how that will impact BTC and other risk throughout the year. T...
Jun 04, 2024•22 min•Ep. 39
In this episode, Nik delivers an economic and markets update to start the trading month of June. With a weak ISM manufacturing release on Monday morning, Treasury yields and the dollar declined, the latter breaking an important trendline. Nik discusses a record in SOFR daily usage, a terrible day in crude oil prices, and looks at Redfin housing data to identify a some trouble in inventories. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bit...
Jun 04, 2024•27 min•Ep. 38
In this episode, Nik brings us a global macro update focused on the US government's grand manipulation of the dollar. Nik argues that although the dollar index oscillates, the major theme of introducing dollar liquidity/supply to suppress its value continues to drive asset prices, including Treasuries, stocks, gold, and of course, bitcoin. Join us for an in-depth discussion of the US fiscal picture, tax receipts, interest expense, debt-to-GDP, asset returns, and a global monetary reset. The Bitc...
May 30, 2024•47 min•Ep. 37
In this episode, Nik is joined by TBL's correspondent in Africa, Noelyne Sumba. Recorded just before Marathon's huge announcement on mining bitcoin in Kenya, Noelyne explains recent positive developments in North and East Africa around bitcoin mining. As policymakers continue to enact pro-mining ordinances and approve investment in Africa, Noelyne discusses why she thinks lives will be positively affected as energy infrastructure and consumption can bring people hope and better access to the glo...
May 29, 2024•17 min•Ep. 36
