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Football this weekend. Betfair. Play different. Welcome to The Athletic Football Show, brought to you by Thursday Night Football, only on Prime Video. I'm Robert Mays. A great Week 14 Sunday slate of games. Me and Derek dug into all of it today.
The Rams-Bills game, very much a contender for the game of the year. We talked about every angle of that. A ridiculous Matthew Stafford day, a ridiculous Josh Allen day, a perfectly called game. Puka Nakua being everything you could ever want Puka Nakua to be in an NFL game. Very much.
enjoyed that one. Chat a little bit about the Mahomes magic on third down in the late stages of the Chiefs win over the Chargers. Discussed a big day for Sam Darnold and the Vikings passing game and a huge win over Atlanta. Chat about some tough moments for the Panthers and the Giants in losses today. And then, you know, hit a few other nuggets from the week 14 slate. So let's get to all of that with Derek Klassen right now.
All right, Derek, a pretty good week 14 Sunday slate here. How are you feeling? I'm doing really good. I feel like the back half of today's slate really paid us off. I felt like for the most part, it was kind of chalky and then we get an insane Rams-Bills game and then an insane Sunday Night Football game. So it ended on a high note, so I can appreciate it.
The early slate was not great. There was not a lot to write home about. Even the games and the performances that were notable were typically in blowout wins. But the back half of the day certainly delivered. That included the Sunday night football game, which we are going to talk about a little bit later. because of another crazy ending for the Chiefs. But we're going to start this discussion and start our Week 14 recap with, I think...
pretty inarguably the game of the year between the Bills and the Rams. This thing had everything you could possibly want. Josh Allen becomes the first player in NFL history with three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns in the same game, and his team loses. That's all you needed to know about how this would went between the Rams and the Bills today. He did the Shohei Otani, Tungsten O'Doyle tweet where you just do some record-breaking thing.
ultimately amounts to nothing uh but they really did i think this was actually almost in a way like a vintage bills game and i say that in a bad way where didn't it feel like two three years ago where Josh Allen was really starting to come on. They didn't have a run game at all. The defense was good, but could be gettable at times. And there would just be these games where it was like, all right, Josh.
We need you to go win the game and do every single play. We're going to be in empty all the time. You're going to have to be scrambling, run for ADRs the way that you did today. That is what this game ultimately ended up feeling like. And to me, the turning point for that was when the Bills get that punt blocked.
Yeah. And the Rams run it back for a touchdown. It takes the game from, I think, 10 to 7 to 17 to 7. And at that point, it immediately felt like the Bills just completely abandoned the run game. And it immediately went into, hey, Josh, you have to go do everything for us. And that's for as good as. he is it's a really really tough place to live especially when the team on the other side of the ball can put up 44 points
The Rams with this game 44 to 42, but like you alluded to, it was a two score game for most of this thing. The Rams were up 17 at one point in the second half. I mean, they really had this game in control and the bills managed to scrape their way all the way back. Let's start with the decision that I think has gotten a lot of oxygen. the last few hours and that is what happened at the end of the game for the Bills. There's about a minute left. They have all three of their timeouts.
They decide to try a quarterback sneak on the one-yard line. It gets stuffed, and Sean McDermott takes his first time out, essentially forcing the Bills to have to kick an onside kick, which we know the success rate of those, especially.
lately is not very good so you kind of change everything about what your late game strategy has to look like and I think that was kind of the moment even if the path to victory was pretty slim no matter what happened that's the thing where the game essentially ended when they made that decision
And that was kind of a double whammy, right? Like to me, I don't love the sneak call. I understand why like you've built this offensive line to be able to bully people. You haven't really done it today, but you have a huge quarterback. OK, I get why you want to just. You can see if you can pound it in and just do it simply that way.
But given that you really need as much time as possible. So again, that you don't have to go and kick that onside kick. I don't really understand putting the ball on the ground and having a run play where if it does get stuffed, you either end up burning a lot of clock. Like there's a world where you could have an immediate play call and you.
only burn 20 seconds of clock and that leaves you with some margin for error and you keep the timeouts or you do what they did and you burn the timeout and now it's like well if the Rams get the ball back it's pretty much ball game and so that to me it was kind of a double whammy that I just didn't really understand from either angle. i think there are three different ways that you can go about this you can do what they did which i think is the worst possible option you can sneak it
But like you said, you have another play called in the huddle. So I believe the sneak finished at like 102, like right around there. So let's say it takes you another 15 seconds to get lined up and sneak the ball again. You could potentially punch it in by. the 45 second mark, that to me is still a better outcome than calling the timeout the way that they did. Or...
Option three, you do not run the ball in that situation because you understand that you're having to fight the clock. And the last thing that you can do is burn one of those timeouts. Sean McDermott after the game said.
our most effective play in that situation is a Josh Allen sneak for a yard, which I completely understand. But the downside of it in that moment, I think is something that you absolutely have to take into consideration. And the fact that they didn't, I don't wouldn't say it lost them the game, but it. Cut off whatever path to victory might have existed. It made it harder. Exactly. And that's the thing. That might be their best play if you...
it take away the clock and take away timeouts and all that stuff. And you just say, how do we get into, you know, from the one yard line? I can understand why that's their best play, but you're not playing the game in a vacuum. You're playing the game with how the scoreboard is, how the clock is and all that stuff. And so.
For them in that moment, the most valuable resource that they have is not points or time. It's your time out so that when the other team inevitably gets the ball, you have all of them so you can make a stop. And so, again, I just very frustrating decision at the end of that game. The other game management thing I want to point out before we dig into the fun aspects of this game. Sean McVay has had his history with poor game management decisions in high leverage moments in important games.
The Rams have a fourth and five in the fourth quarter that they only get to because the Bills decided to accept a penalty that I think pushed it back to. third and 17. So they got it from third and 17 back to a fourth and five. People are getting on McDermott about accepting that penalty. It would have been fourth and six either way. And I'm sure they probably would have gone for it.
McVay going for it on that fourth and five instead of kicking the 52-yard field goal to go up by six points. That's growth. I'm proud of him for making that decision in that moment because if the Rams don't go for it on that fourth and five.
There's a chance they missed that 52-yard field goal, but even if they make it, you're giving the ball back to Buffalo only up six when their offense has had their way with your defense in the second half of that game. So McVay's decision to go for it in that moment. which I'm not sure he would do two years ago, three years ago, even earlier this year. That's a really nice sign for them, and it was huge in them winning this game.
It is good. And he's going to have to have, you know, that kind of decision making. Obviously, if they can get into the playoffs, he's going to need that, you know, deeper in the playoffs when they are probably going to be underdogs in a lot of games that they play. You need to have the ability to make those calls in those moments. I also don't disagree.
with them accepting the penalty you know the bills pushing it to what it was third and 17 18 yeah man you make any offense go 18 yards in two plays in that scenario and like you said if they didn't accept it it's fourth and six, maybe a short fourth and seven. If they were going to go for the fourth and five, they probably were going to go for that fourth and six or seven. So to me, it's like not that big of a deal.
But again, credit to Sean McVay for going for it and then obviously them executing it and being able to get across the line there. People are going to point out the missed false start on that fourth and five. These things happen in the rhythm of a game. I think that there were a couple calls that went against the Bills at some point. There was like a stretch where that was happening. And the drumbeat started about all the calls going against the Bills. I hope we don't.
Don't ignore the two pass interference calls that the Rams got in the final drive for the Bills to set up that touchdown. I believe the Bills finished this game with fewer penalties. Yeah, the Bills had seven penalties for 59 yards in this game. The Rams had nine for 99. So I think that this is just normal, very.
with how calls can go over the course of an NFL game. You just forget all of the other ones that happened and you remember the one that happened in one, the latest in the game and also in the biggest moment. So yeah. I don't ever, I don't, most of the time I don't like being the penalty police. It's just not worth it.
I am almost never the penalty police. The bar, it has to clear for me to be the penalty police. This did not clear the bar. All right, let's get into celebration mode about this game now that we've handled the nitty gritty. This is the best possible version for 60 minutes.
of so many people involved in this game. We can start with the quarterbacks. The quarterbacks playing at this level for an entire game, there is nothing better. Like maybe Mahomes playing at this spot, maybe Lamar playing at this spot, but when Stafford is hot...
he can go toe to toe with somebody like Josh Allen also bringing his best. And you can probably count on one hand, the guys on planet earth that can say that. And today was a very good example of what those two guys can do when they're operating at full tilt. I almost don't even know which one to start with. I'll start with the guy who won the game, Matthew Stafford today. I think I tweeted this maybe in third quarter, something like that.
I think for a lot of this game, the Bills' coverage was really not that bad. I was going to say this. People are going to say it was a terrible defensive game. It's not like watching the Dolphins today, where there's just busted coverage after busted coverage. Those guys...
are just making crazy plays the entire game exactly and like you could point to one or two where there's air in the coverage whatever whatever Stafford made at least six or seven high leverage into super tight window crazy throws and The double part of this, we know that he can make those throws. And sometimes just when you're testing that many tight windows, it's not always going to connect.
This was a day where every single guy on the receiving end of those was able to haul them in. Puka Nakua makes basically like the Super Bowl Julio Jones catch on the left sideline, which was... absolutely insane he makes another one where he's like falling backwards to catch a back shoulder on the sideline i think to convert a third and eight
He twists 180 degrees in air to be facing the line of scrimmage when he makes that play at full extension leaning backwards. And it looks easy for him. Like that's the most jarring part of it to me with Puka Nakua. It just looks for him like the ball. There are just always a very small handful of guys where it seems like the ball slows down for them when it's going their way. It's like him, Drake London, Tee Higgins, Mike Evans. Puka is absolutely in that category where it just...
The way he can contort his body to it is phenomenal. So you have those catches from him. He was great all day, by the way. Cooper Cup had another really tough catch. One of the backs near the goal line had a really tough catch on an angle route. Like, I'm telling you, every single guy on this Rams team.
caught the heaters that Matthew Stafford was throwing. And man, he threw a lot of them. I thought that Tutu Atwell had some nice moments today. Like Matthew Stafford gets all the way back to Atwell on that fourth and five, which is a great play by Matthew Stafford. But at one point, you know, they're...
Picking on a one-on-one with Tutu outside the numbers on a third down. Thought he had some nice moments. Puka's another guy in this game. This is the most Puka Nakua game of all time. He has two or three intense, incredible contested catches. He has...
a rushing touchdown, multiple conversions while running the ball. And then they throw multiple screens for him in high leverage moments. There was that first and 19 get back on track screen. They threw to him. There was the game ceiling touchdown that they threw to him with that perfect block by Cooper cup. Everybody involved in this game, all of the big name guys on the offensive side of the ball for these teams was about the best version of that person you could possibly hope for.
This game in particular for Nakua kind of solidified the fact that for me, he is the most for the love of the game. player i think that we have in the entire league he is tough as nails like there was a point in this game i think in the third quarter where he goes out and then comes back into the game so like that you always wrapped something around his calf yes he's always like dragging a limb around at this point
It doesn't matter. He'll just go back and fight through it. And he did. And he ended up playing the rest of the game. He has those insane contested catches. Like I said, his ability to... it just almost doesn't seem like there's a defender dragging on him at times like just his ability to locate the ball is crazy he's extremely willing to take hits to make some of those catches which is super impressive and then the way he blocks obviously and then the way he runs with the ball
He's not a guy who's shifty or super fast. He's going to run through you kind of almost like Debo Samuel or something. He is just when you describe a football player, that is Puka Nakua. And it's not really a coincidence that this is the team that he's playing for.
Okay, everything we just said about all the contested catches and all the tight window throws the Rams made, you could say the same thing about the Bills in this game. Think about all the examples. You have the slot fade touchdown to Matt Collins that is put in like a shoebox from Josh Allen. It's just a gorgeous throw.
The throw down the left sideline to Amari Cooper that he fits through a keyhole and Cooper has to make a crazy contested catch. Khalil Shakir, the yak on his touchdown over the middle of the field is insane. That play only happens because on a second and 25.
Allen scrambles for 17 yards to set up that third and eight. And then there was another sequence in the second half where Allen is third and 10. That's when Allen scrambled for like 55 yards on that one play. Just made it look super easy. The next play. All right. maybe two plays later, is that floated huge chunk to Khalil Shakir down the left sideline. So that was the other thing about Josh Allen. This always happens when you're watching him in his best moments.
Obviously, the touchdowns and the highlights, those are the things you'll probably remember from this game. But there are so many quiet things he does with his legs or extending plays. Those games where he feels like a force of nature, it's always like the... play leading to the play.
that is almost as impressive. And I thought there were four or five really good examples of that today with him either getting a ton of yards back to set up a third down or picking up a key third down with his legs. There are just so many kind of quieter moments over the course of a game when he's at his best. that you just feel him changing the complexion of the entire game.
I mean, he dropped back like 40 times on a game script where they were only dropping back. Like I said, they abandoned the run at a certain point. So everybody knows that he's going to drop back and he doesn't get sacked. And he runs for what is it like?
80 yards total on scrambles. Obviously, a lot of it is that one play. And then even that Shakir touchdown, you mentioned the run after catch one. Josh Allen has to kind of shimmy and slide to his left outside of the pocket to even be able to make that throw and to unlock that window. So like he just. Like you said, they ended up losing this game.
And he missed maybe one or two throws. But again, when you are dropping back 40 times against a fairly good pass rush and you were just under all of this pressure and you have the weight of the game on your shoulders, you're allowed one or two misses when you make. It's eight or nine unbelievable plays to keep your team in a game that they probably should not have been in.
And the guys calling the plays today, I thought also had incredible days. The screen game from the Bills early on, obviously you have the big chunk to Ty Johnson, I think on the first drive, but then you have the screen touchdown to Ty Johnson a little bit later. I thought a lot of the under center play actions.
stuff the bills were doing was really impressive really liked what joe brady brought to the game throughout the entire day and then sean mcveigh I think two of probably the best five cold games I have seen this year in the NFL are McVay against the Vikings on Thursday night, where he seemed to have...
his finger on the pulse the entire game, dialing up screens in the right moments, taking shots in the right moments, just understanding. Sometimes I think we confuse this, where I think that a lot of people...
think of a play caller when it they're really thinking of like architecture and offensive design like the structure of what an offense is but there are a lot of moments this year these two games specifically where i think when he's dialing up some of these ideas really stands out and i think
Those are the moments when he becomes truly exceptional. It's not just the ideas behind the offense. We know those are good. But I think he can separate himself sometimes with the way he calls a game. And I think today was a very good case of that. It's that. And also to me. It felt like they were always on the front foot with stuff. Like anytime the Bills tried something else, the Rams always had the right answer. Anytime the Bills were in some sort of too high structure.
OK, the Rams would call some sort of concept that was going to be able to abuse some of the high low nature of some of those plays. They threw a bunch of like corner routes where they're pulling down the flat defender, pulling down the flat corner and getting that corner out against single high. They know that they can just run some of these one on.
ones on the outside and hit a 2-2 Atwell or Demarcus Robinson or whoever it is. And so they did a really good job there, even with some of their rollout game in that sense. And then even in the run game, it wasn't great for a lot of today, but it was really good early until the Bills just started throwing six.
and seven bodies at the problem with some run blitzes on early downs to make sure that they couldn't do that. And then the Rams actually had some success out of empty today, which they really haven't for a lot of this season, which I think we can easily go back to.
Yeah, they've been shuffling guys in and out of the offensive line for a majority of this season. So now maybe they're a little bit more solidified. And then this was just a game where Stafford's on a heater. And if he's on a heater, he's going to be perfectly fine doing that out of five man protection. So I just thought.
Anytime the Bills were trying to go to a different pitch, McVay was just knocking it out of the park and it didn't really matter. Seven of seven for 97 yards and two touchdowns out of empty today was Matthew Stafford. I didn't have the numbers, but that is... That checks out after having watched it. According to NextGen. Two kind of bigger picture things I want to hit before we get to the question about the NFC West that we've been asking every single week. One.
Does this game make you worried about the Bills defense against high quality opponents as we get a little bit deeper into the season? A little bit. Um, in particular, I think the safeties were really, really bad today. Um, there, there were a number of, of the touchdowns in particular that, that Taylor Rapp kind of got caught on the jet.
sweep that they give to Puka Nakua he's a little bit late you know kind of seeing everything he gets frozen Nakua is able to go score on that I think Kyron Williams had a touchdown to the right where They actually motion to the left before the snap, and it kind of draws the linebackers over to that side. So Bernard's not able to get over to the top to the right. It's kind of just Rapp and Kyron, you know.
who's faster to the sideline. Kyron ends up being faster. They score there. So I think that was a little bit of an issue today. I also do think that this was a game where I thought the Rams would be able to control the... the the ball and control possessions by running the ball that's not really how they did it they did it a lot more by throwing and just getting
I think they went 11 of 15 on third down, so that really helps. That was one of the craziest stats. I'm glad you mentioned that because we had to hit that. At one point, they were 10 of 11 on third down in this game. It was outrageous. It was completely outrageous.
Again, I thought it would be running the ball to keep possessions. The fact that the Bills almost won this game, or even in this game, they had a punt block for a touchdown, and the other team started 10 of 11 on third down, and they still almost won the game.
To make that even a one score game is crazy. That should be a three score loss if you just chalk up all of that stuff. So it is worrying in a sense, though, because I think I think why the defense has been kind of good ish this year or gotten away with it. Well, their offense has scored.
30 points in a lot of games and also been in control of the clock and in control of possessions was not the case in this game. And I think we saw when this defense has to play, I would imagine 36 plus minutes. Yeah, that's a really tough way for this team to have to live. The other thing I wanted big picture wise to hit before we moved on. This is one of the first games I could remember where in a losing effort, somebody really.
If not solidified, then strengthen their MVP bid. This is the type of game where Josh Allen may have a better inside track to the MVP despite losing. And I think that says a lot about his performance today. If the MVP is all about who is doing the... Pretty hard to make an argument that that guy is not doing the most. All right, guys, before we hit our NFC West question that we've been asking every single week, we're going to take one quick break here.
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All right, so the Rams win this game. The Rams are now 7-6. The Seahawks also win today. The Cardinals lose. The Niners win. So we have the Seahawks at 8-5, the Rams at 7-6, the Cardinals at 6-7, and the Niners at 6-7. I've asked you this question every single Sunday for the last like four weeks. I'm going to ask it to you again. Who's going to win the NFC West?
I'm trying not to be caught in the moment from what I just saw from this Rams team. I'm really, really trying. I'll lean with the Seahawks for now because I'm really, really impressed by what their defense has been doing. I will say, though, these two teams play in Week 18. That will be for the division. That much I'm certain of. I'm more of, you know, in the middle about who I think will win the division. I am very confident now that that game is going to decide it. Okay, so the Rams have...
They have one head-to-head win over the Seahawks right now. The Rams play the Niners on Thursday night, this Thursday night. They get the Jets, the Cardinals, and then the Seahawks in Week 18. I don't think it's crazy. And I'll say this, and I think this is an unfair way to frame it, but I'm going to do it anyway.
If we get this version of the Rams for the next four games, they absolutely could win out. The problem with this Rams team this year is that we have not been able to rely on them like this. Some of that is because you had wide receiver injuries for a huge chunk of the year, and then you had offensive line injuries.
line inconsistencies for a huge chunk of the year. It seems like the line is starting to settle in now, and you have both Cooper Cup and Puka Nakua back in the lineup. So I think you could make a real argument that the Rams team we're going to see over the next month is closer to a...
we saw today than the team we saw over the first 13 weeks. But I still think that's probably a little bit more fragile than you want it to be. And even for as much as I want to say all that stuff in the offense was great. They gave up 42 points, man. It's hard to feel fully all the way in on a team when they give up 42. So let's talk about the Seahawks then, because I think even beyond just winning the game today, I actually was impressed.
with elements of what they brought to the table, especially on offense, compared to what I've taken from their last couple performances. You mentioned the defense, so let's start with that. What about their defensive performance today against the Cardinals makes you feel pretty hopeful about the Seahawks team? over the next few weeks.
I mean, I think just on a base level, their star players continue to play like stars like Leonard Williams. Again, I thought had a fantastic game in this game. Devin Witherspoon, you can tell. Obviously, he's a pretty good coverage defender. There are just a number of plays when they're trying to stretch out runs his way.
just doesn't allow it to happen like that dude you cannot run on the perimeter towards him can't throw screens at him he's just really really good in that sense and then Ernest Jones today Kyler threw two early picks in this game the first one he throws Ernest Jones is kind of playing a hook in the middle of the field. He opens his shoulders towards the front side, towards the strong side of the concept. He's looking at the tight end. The tight end starts to go vertical and starts to get...
jammed out by one of the other defenders so he ends up on the outside shoulder soon as Jones sees that he goes okay I can turn my back go hunt the dig as soon as he turns his back he catches the he catches the pick for the dig there and I think Kyler just thought because his shoulders were turned the other way oh i can fit this in behind him but just the way that jones plays it uh you know all his spacing his timing his awareness of it
So him being able to really piece this defense together and now the secondary solidifying a little bit, the D line is healthier and playing the way that they need to. I'm just it's hard not to be really, really confident in the way that this unit is playing.
I think that's fair. The turnovers are huge in this game, though. I mean, the turnover swung this game. If those two picks don't happen, if you look at down-to-down success and consistency today, the offenses were pretty similar, but the turnovers are what ultimately swing it for Seattle. On offense, there are a couple things I would point to that made me feel a little bit more confident about what the Seahawks put on the field today compared to their last couple outings.
The way they ran the ball felt a little bit different today. It's still more inconsistent than you want it to be. There are a lot of negative runs still. They have way too many negative plays when they're trying to establish their ground game. But the high end of it was much better today than it essentially has been all year. They ran for 176 yards. And...
To me, even more important than the success was the commitment to it. This was their second highest, I believe, rushing percentage in a game. And that's not just because they were winning the game. This was very balanced throughout the entire game. If you looked at it all day, it's like 10. 10 passes 12 runs 12 passes that stuff is typically overrated to me but with this team specifically i think trying to figure out
all right, can we ease the burden on our offensive line or our quarterback just a little bit? And I think they did a lot of that today, whether it was with the ground game or with some of the screens that they were trying to trot out. And the other thing that I thought was very different about their approach today, and it was...
the most efficient and successful they've been with this particular aspect of their offense all year was how they use motion in the passing game. I thought they did such a great job of creating space. changing the picture right before the snap, getting a horizontal stretch. The JSN touchdown, there's motion to the right side. They pull the flat defender down. He runs a corner round for a touchdown. Early in the game, they had...
Fant motions, really quick motion to the right. He gets out in the flat. They hit him for a third and one. I thought they did a really good job using motion, throwing the ball all day. On the day. 19 of 21 for 189 yards when using motion. 67% success rate, 0.41 EPA per drop back. They had 8.5. Eight and a half total EPA while using motion throwing the ball today. That was nearly double the number they've had in any other game this season. So just using that as a way to.
give your quarterback some easier throws. You're not having to play hero ball all the time. That version of the passing game. I liked seeing that because I don't think we've seen that often enough with this team this year. I couldn't agree more like this. For as much as I think we both love Geno Smith, he cannot play on hard mode for 40 dropbacks a game. It's just too difficult. And you said, you know, maybe...
sometimes run in pass, like the split of it can be overrated. And I do think that that's true, but they were so far on the wrong end of pass all the time. They were the most pass happy team in the league with a bad offensive line. And they used no play action. So you're asking your quarterback to do straight. dropbacks 45 times a game.
it's just untenable. Even for some of the best guys, it is just untenable. And so for them to hit some of the easy buttons with some of the motion stuff that they were doing, and then like you said, committing to the run game. And I thought they kind of did it in a number of ways. You know, there's a couple of zone plays where... You know, maybe Arizona has more second and third level defenders. So there's a bubble on the defensive line.
They attack it with zone and get eight yards or something like that. They had a couple of pulling plays. You know, they had a really good GT counter play that ended up hitting out of gun. So they did it a little bit from gun, a little bit. That was like a 50 yard Charbonnet touchdown was on that GT counter play. That's what it was. Yes. And so like they were just every single way that you could run, they were able to do it. They committed to it. And then to me, if you're able to run the ball.
and able to be under center a little bit more, some of the motion stuff becomes more accessible because you're just in down in distances where it's more of a- actual threat than being in that's exactly right when you're second in 12 it's like who cares if you motion it's you're not going to do anything with it so i just think them being able to piece everything together here was really encouraging
I think that's the perfect point because that first drive, that's the one that's sticking out in my mind. Those two third and ones they hit with some quick motion in the perimeter, they were third and ones. It makes it a lot easier when you're in those downs and distances. And I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I'm pretty confident they were up.
near the top of the league in yards to go on third down. The Texans are in just some disgusting range. Like they're leading the league right now, but Houston was up there. Seattle was up there. And so being in some more manageable situations and being able to tap into those wrinkles and layers.
to the offense, that was really notable to me today. So I'm encouraged by what I saw from them because I was actually a little bit worried about the overall trajectory of their offense. And the last thing I want to add.
And JSN is really becoming a nice player. Obviously, he's a really good player. He had that touchdown. That was just a great route. And they did a pretty good job scheming that open, too. But he actually had there was a third and 10 at some point in the game, I think in the second half. And Gino kind of gets popped, so it's not the best ball. It ends up on his shoestrings. And JSN just catches it, picks it off the ground. I'm like, okay, man, if we can...
Finally, we have Gino, the receiver who can make some of these just weird catches. That's going to go a long way down the stretch here, I think. So let's tie it all in on that play. They have quick motion to the perimeter, I believe, with Charbonnet to pull the linebacker out. And then they're able to hit JSN coming back over the middle of the field. That is the drive with the 50-yard DT counter touchdown to Zach Charbonnet. It's all coming together. It's all coming together.
And that's what it felt like for the Seahawks on offense today, which has not been the case for a good chunk of this season. Last thing worth noting, these teams, I do think their best path to the playoffs is still to win the division for both the Rams and the Seahawks. Washington is at 8-5. They hold the last wild card spot. They get the Saints, the Eagles, the Falcons, and the Cowboys in their final four.
I still think Washington probably gets that last wildcard spot, but just something to keep in mind that the NFC West title is not the only path to the postseason for the Seahawks and for the Rams. That Eagles game is going to be, if Washington wins that, they lock it up. If not, it'll come down to the wire. All right, let's get to you at my attention. Gentlemen, you had my curiosity.
Now you have my attention. Each week, we like to pull out a couple performances, a couple moments that really grabbed us as so much is coming at you over the course of NFL Sunday. Let's start with the game that we just watched. We don't have to... overly complicated about this late game, late down Patrick Mahomes. You have my attention. It's very easy.
To chuck all of this nonsense up for this chief season to luck and black magic and everything. And there absolutely is some element of that. You don't win. 11 straight one score games or whatever the number is. I think it might even be like 14 or 15 now. I think it was 14 before this one. So 14. So now you get to 15, which might be the longest streak in NFL history at this point. You don't do that.
without a little bit of luck. Of course not. You need a couple breaks to go your way. But I do think one of the reasons that they're able... to kind of skate by in the margins and do things in these close games that other teams aren't able to do is that they have a quarterback who can do things that other quarterbacks cannot do. Mahomes this year on third and fourth down.
has generated 50 total EPA for the Chiefs. There is no other quarterback in the league that has more than 33. That's Josh Allen. So we're talking like two and a half touchdowns. of a gap between mahomes on third and fourth down and everyone else and why that's important this game swings on two third downs on that final drive for the chiefs
The one on third and 10 where he somehow makes a guy miss in the pocket, slides up and then finds worthy late for a huge conversion. And then that third and seven final completion to Kelsey where he's out on the perimeter. He makes a guy miss in space and then just.
dumps the ball off to Kelsey. Those are the moments, even if it's not the best Mahomes season we've ever had, even if this is an imperfect Chiefs team that's skating by every once in a while, those are the moments where he still separates himself.
And I think that tonight we saw exactly what that can mean for this team with the game on the line. The worthy one is probably the most critical there. That third and 10 where he's just able to make a guy miss. They go convert. They get to midfield. And then obviously the throw to Kelsey. He also had a 10-yard scramble on this drive, which isn't that always the thing?
When you absolutely need it, whether it's critical third down in fourth down, this was a second and eight, so it's not necessarily a critical down, but it's on a drive where you absolutely need yards any way you can get them. He finds a way to get them. And for him to just be able to consistently pull those plays out of his hat, that is how you end up in a spot where you win double digit, single digit wins in a row where you're just able to rip this stuff off. It's one of those things where.
Yes, they are lucky, but by virtue of being so good and having the best guy, in a sense, you like create your own luck. Like that's basically the cycle of what's going on here. And it will run out at some point, obviously. It's not necessarily an accident that they're able to get away with this stuff.
I just think we have to untangle some of this because some of it is lucky, but I think some of it is something that they have shown over time where they're able to separate themselves. Again, I don't have all the numbers in front of me, but anecdotally, I do think that it's true. And like we just said.
Allen is second in the total number, total EPA. He's generated on third down. What him and Mahomes can do in high leverage third downs that in theory should be pretty volatile and should normalize over time for both of.
those guys they haven't really normalized over time both of them have shown an ability to be more efficient and more dangerous in those moments than virtually any other modern quarterbacks that we've ever seen so i think that at some point it's not just variance like these guys are just good in those situations and doesn't that speak to how insane Patrick Mahomes has been this year specifically where he is that good on third and fourth downs and the offense still feels a little bit
And just because like the rest of the structure of it and the rest of the talent of it is not that great to let them get to a point. But when they need him, doesn't matter. He bails them out and he gets them to the point where they're still, I don't know, the ninth best offense or whatever. Pretty much by virtue of him being a one of one player. when you absolutely need it.
I also think it's worth mentioning that somehow Justin Herbert clawed the Chargers back into this game while he was dragging a leg around while the running game was completely non-existent. And then he goes 10 for his first 10 in the second half, completing chunk passes to like. Stone Smart and Quentin Johnston against the best quarterback I've ever seen. His two biggest throws in the second half, or his two best throws at least, were like corner routes to Stone Smart. I just...
We've been used to, I think at this point in the season, that Will Disley is the guy who gets the big tight end targets. And in this game, he was hurting this game. Exactly, exactly. And so just the next man up and it's apparently stone smart and Justin Herbert just makes him work. I will say it's very funny. that of all coaching staffs that there is an ability for jim harbaugh and greg roman to just like throw any tight end out there justin herbert's gonna find him it doesn't really matter
I'm excited to see what this Chargers offense might look like with a little bit more receiving talent moving forward. The fact that we had to watch this game without Ladd McConkie to start, and then we notice them losing Will Disley, I think says all you need to say about... where the Chargers offense stands right now. Yeah, I would like one more guy. Even with healthy Lad McConkie, that would be nice. Let's get to our next one here. Sam Darnold.
carves up the Falcons in a 42-21 win for Minnesota, spoiling the revenge opportunity for Kirk Cousins coming back to Minnesota. Sammy Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings passing game. You guys firmly have my attention. That was an insane performance. Here's what I'm going to say here. I think for a lot of this season...
We've done a little bit of a good cop, bad cop kind of thing with Sam Darnold. I think I've been very critical of Sam Darnold and I think you've been a little bit more lenient, not necessarily lenient, but like this is fine and this is working. I'm just happy for him, man. Right. I mean, I'm happy for him. This is a Super Bowl team. We got to start talking about it like it. This, I think, was the game, though, where he actually played the way that I think...
we've kind of been talking about the way that he's been playing, if that makes sense. Because I think in a lot of the other games, he still put the ball at risk. four or five times and he kind of got lucky with the Addison throw in this game but for the most part he actually just didn't put the ball in danger and he was just making really really good throws and so
I was just incredibly impressed by what he did in this game for four quarters. That was the thing. Last week, he had three bad quarters and then made an insane fourth quarter comeback. This week, just start to finish unbelievable.
This is going to be funny because I think I'm going to play the bad cop here compared to the bad cop you normally play. I actually think this was not as impressive as some of the other stretches he's had over the last couple weeks. Let's go over the big plays they had in this game.
The long touchdown to Addison is an under throw that Addison has to come back for. Okay. The touchdown to Jefferson, Jefferson's wide open 35 yards down the field. The safety fell down. The most impressive part of that play is. Darnold extending the play for long enough in the pocket to be able to get that throw off. And then the other huge chunk he had to Addison, I believe it was like a 42 yarder in the fourth quarter. That one is under thrown and Addison has to track that ball. So I think.
the most impressive parts of this game for me in terms of what the Vikings did with their passing game. I think Jordan Addison was insane in this game. I think that Sam Darnold gave his guys the right chances because he has talented receivers. And I think these. structure of the passing game stood out to me today the ways they used motion and change number counts in the red bunches especially in the red zone in this game kevin o'connell was cooking and so i think that we got
a good version of Sam Darnold in this game. I don't really think it was that. different than some of the other Sam Donald performances that we've gotten over the last three or four weeks when he's made some nails throws in big moments for this offense. I just think that they got a little bit lucky and I think his receivers made a lot of awesome plays today.
That's not even like a criticism. I think I'm just trying to like properly contextualize what happened. They did make some good plays. The first Addison one is a balloon ball that's under thrown. That one is fortunate. The one he throws to Jefferson where he's wide open.
I actually think him extending out is what pulls Jesse Bates to, like, come out of the roof because they completely, like, one, they left, I think, Hawkinson, like, on a crosser completely wide open and then Dartle moves to his right. So I think Bates sees it and flies out of center field and is like. Either Darnold's running or he's throwing the crosser. So I'm going to go get that.
Jefferson ends up wide open because the corner who's playing high ends up falling over. Donald deserves a lot of credit on that play. That play happens because of his ability to extend it. The throw itself, to me, is not really what stands out about that play. It's whatever. It's everything leading up to it. And then I think actually the one that he throws...
to Addison later, the 40 something yarder where it's a little bit under thrown. That was one of those ones where it's a little bit under thrown, but I think it's fine because it's one of those ones where because of where the center field safety was playing, I think if you lead him up the field, there's a chance.
that that can get contested. And so I didn't mind letting Addison kind of come back to the ball. So I'm actually kind of surprised and kind of shocked that we had for once you're playing the not bad cop necessarily, but we're kind of playing different sides of this. I it's.
Darnold absolutely plays a key part in most of those plays. I think that Jordan Addison plays a bigger role in the big competitions today. And again, I honestly think that some of the key late game throws that we've seen from Sam Darnold over the last month.
to me were more impressive even in the moment than what he did today, even if the numbers look astronomical when you go back and check them out. I do think that that's fair. Some of the throws, especially last week in the fourth quarter, were just...
Probably better than anything that he did today. The one other difference, though, like I said, he didn't throw a ball at a defender's hands today. Good job. That's been the part I've been most critical of, is that he keeps giving defenders chances. Today, he didn't.
That's a good way to frame this, is that today was the sort of high variance from Sam Darnold that you want. He was aggressive. They sought out chunk plays like they've done all year, but you didn't see some of the lows and some of the...
How have you referred to them? Like the Sammy whoopsies that we see over the course of the year? Yeah, it's just some oopsies, man. And like, honestly, even some of the sacks he took, I didn't think were really his fault. There were one or two of them that were. And so it was just, it was, I was more favorable to this game than I thought I was going to be. Before we move on, I want to make this very clear.
I'm not being critical of the way that Sam Darnold played today. I think today is more of a testament to the strength of the Vikings passing game overall than it is specifically to Sam Darnold and also says a lot about the current state of the Atlanta Falcons defense. But like you pointed out, he didn't make those one or two turnovers in this game. The Falcons did.
And that ultimately swings the game. The Falcons were able to move the ball pretty consistently when they weren't turning it over today. The three plays where this game swings are the two interceptions that Kirk throws. The first of which is just...
Mind-boggling. Again, I just don't understand anything that's going on there. And then the Ray McLeod fumbled kickoff return, which they score immediately. This game was 21-21 heading into the fourth quarter. The turnovers are ultimately what swings this thing.
Absolutely. And even I don't even obviously the second interception Kirk throws where they're already down 14, but they're kind of driving. So many things have already happened in the game that I don't necessarily care about that one. The first one is funny because.
I forget who it is, but someone's running kind of like a high corner and then London is running a little bit more of like a sail sit route under it. You can see Kirk start to throw the deeper route and then he holsters it and everything in his body is telling him. Throw this ball away or eat it. Do not throw to Drake London over the middle of the field. And then he does it anyway, and Josh Metellus is just sitting there. It's just, there's like a overthinking to Kirk's game right now.
especially over the last month or so, that is really, really killing him. And it really shows up when he obviously can't move. I think he hasn't been able to move all season, but this was a game in particular against Flores where it was very, very obvious that he could not move in the pocket.
Eight of 12 on third down for the Vikings today. Honestly, I think that probably says more about the way that Sam Darnold played than the touchdowns. I really do. Dude, the third and five to Hawkinson out of the half. He threw that 120 miles an hour. That was a nuts throw.
It's very – the fact that this offense and this passing game have this year I think is all you need to say about what Sam Darnold is bringing to the table and also what Kevin O'Connell is currently bringing to the table. So the Vikings win this game. The Falcons drop it. That brings us to our next – entry here and you have my attention. By default, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who now have sole possession of first place in the NFC South, despite an uneven game today against the Las Vegas Raiders.
You guys have our attention. You are now in first place in that division. Uneven is the right way to put it. This was... So the Bucks get out to an immediate 14-0 lead. So you're thinking, oh, they're going to do the thing against a really bad team. And then for the next, like, 50 minutes, basically, it's a really close game.
Desmond Ritter ends up having to come in for the Raiders because Aiden O'Connell takes a leg injury, and this game still wasn't able to get out of hand in the Bucks' favor. It was just a very bizarre game that I think to me was encapsulated by two Baker Mayfield moments where... There's a little bit of a cartoonish nature to the way that he plays. He took one sack in this game where he starts to try to wheel out to his left and just one of his arms like he just shoots it out.
And a defender just grabs it and rips him to the ground. I'm like, all right, maybe if you weren't flailing your arms around like a cartoon, that would not have happened. And then he throws a pick later in this game where he gets hit and kind of ragdolls. And he just throws a balloon up into the air and it gets picked off. And it's just he's.
had some good moments in this game but those two were like that is why this game felt a little bit weirder than it probably needed to this was a very baker mayfield day they averaged 10 yards they averaged 10 yards an attempt in this game The Bucs did. They averaged 10 yards an attempt, but the turnovers are, again, what keeps this thing a little bit closer than it probably should have been. I think, just to what we've seen from Baker all year, you need to live with moments like this.
You need to live with some of the downsides and some of the aggressiveness in order to get the benefits that they've seen for a good chunk of this season. And I think today, unfortunately, it swung the wrong direction a couple of times.
Yeah, that's pretty much all it was. I think otherwise it was still a pretty decent day. Like I said, he did have some good throws, especially early on. Run game looked good. It's just some of those turnovers didn't let them run away with the game the way that they probably should have in this game.
The Bucs are now 7-6. The Falcons are 6-7. Let's say the Falcons don't win the division. Let's say that they do not make the playoffs this year. What do you make of this Falcons season overall in year one of Raheem Morris' tenure if they do not win the division? Man, that's a good question. I think them drafting a quarterback where they did, I think, complicates so many things. I really would have liked to see what this team looked like if they took Jared Verse.
Quinion Mitchell. Like, could this thing have been a little bit different? Obviously, that doesn't necessarily fix what Kirk Cousins has looked like, but I think if they had a little bit more leeway on that side of the ball, some things could have changed. I do give credit to Raheem Morris for bringing over Zach Robinson. I think...
Even though the offense has slowed down, I think that was for the most part a good hire. So I think there's still enough of a foundation here offensively, even if stuff has fallen away. Defensively is where I still have a lot of my question marks. And Raheem Morris is a defensive guy. So that has been a little bit of a struggle for me. They're just not very talented on that side of the ball. So I think this was probably like a net neutral.
And for this season, probably a little bit below average because of the way that Kirk has fallen off physically, I think, towards the end of the season. But I don't think this is worst case scenario or anything. Part of me thinks that because they took a quarterback, it actually gives me a rosier outlook on what the season is. Now you have a fallback. Yes, because let's say you pay Kirk.
He struggles. He's turned the ball over more than any other quarterback in the league this year. He has been as much of a detriment to your offense as he's been a benefit at times this season. If that was just what you had. And you had no pathway to a different option over the next couple of years. I actually think that is potentially scarier.
then maybe we missed out on an edge rusher. What could our defense have looked like otherwise? Because now if you get to the end of the year and you're like, I don't think Kirk's got it, there's a realistic chance that they could probably trade him for something this offseason and just roll into the Penix regime.
I don't know if that would... I think their offense... potentially would be worse in 2025 and it has been this year even with the kirk turnovers just because you're inserting a young quarterback into the equation but at least you're not running yourself into a 36 year old quarterback dead end in the way that a lot of other teams would
based on where they were coming into this offseason. I think that's a good point, because even for some of the, you know, what I thought about Michael Penix as a prospect and all of that stuff, I think probably at this point, the the out the percent.
The percent chance outcome that Penix is either as good or better than Kirk Cousins. I'm probably a little bit more favorable to that and like seeing what could go on there. Then, hey, let's hope 37 year old Kirk Cousins fixes his Achilles next offseason.
that's kind of what i mean that's like a little scary yeah so i i think i'm in line with you in that sense um even taking out like some of what i thought about penics and stuff all right let's get to the other end of the spectrum today it's time for what the what the
Before I start this one, I want to be very clear about what I mean. I don't want to pick on this person. He's a rookie. He's had some nice moments this year. But I want to talk about the Xavier Leggett drop missed completion at the end of the game for Carolina. If I'm a Panthers fan...
I think I probably, as that play happens, considering what's gone on for the last two weeks and how close you've been to finishing off a couple of these games when Bryce Young has given you what he needs to in high leverage moments at the end. If I were a Panthers fan, even if I wasn't directing.
this at Xavier Leggett. When that ball falls incomplete, my response would be, what the f**k? So that's where I'm landing here. Just in general, the end of this Panthers game, unfortunately laying at Xavier Leggett's feet, but mostly just overall. Panthers, what the f***? You can't finish off one of these things? Three weeks in a row, man. Against playoff teams. It's the Chiefs. It's a Bucs team that is probably going to win this division now. And an Eagles team that...
has a shot at the one seed in the NFC for them to be in all of these games at the very end. And for Bryce Young, whatever he was doing for the first three and a half quarters of some of these games, you know, I think in the Chiefs game, he was actually good for most of it.
absolutely was nails at the end of some of these games. And for him to make that throw to Leggett, you know, I know some people are saying, oh, it's a little bit out in front of him. He's got to go make it like make the catch. Like that is a good ball in that scenario. I just saw that drop earlier in the draft.
I'm not inclined to give him more leeway than he deserves. Right, exactly. And so to me, this is just for your quarterback to, it's almost bittersweet, right? Like your quarterback that you drafted first overall. That didn't look any good for 18, 19 games or whatever. Finally showing some signs of life. The defense is not playing that bad in some of these games.
And you just can't get over the finish line. And wins don't really mean anything for you at this stage. But it would be nice to get a win against a playoff team to be like, you know what? All of what we've suffered the past year and a half is kind of worth it. And maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel.
I better put this in the notes, which I think is actually a very good way to think about this game. If Xavier Leggett catches that ball, Bryce Young finishes today 20 of 32 for 223 yards and two touchdowns with seven yards in attempt against. a team playing arguably the best pass defense in the NFL. So that's a decent day considering where this Panthers offense is and what we've come to expect from this Eagles defense. If Xavier will get hangs onto that thing.
And even if he doesn't, what did we say coming into this week? Bryce Young doesn't need to be Superman. He doesn't even need to win this game necessarily. He just needs to look like a guy.
That can belong. And I still think he had some tough moments. The interception, he overthrows a corner out to Adam Thielen. He had a couple of other misses in this game. There's a fourth and two. He doesn't give a chance. Whatever. But he gave you enough chances and enough moments in this game. I mean, the third and 11 that he converts.
out of his own end zone is crazy. And then the touchdown, obviously, that he could have thrown to Leggett here. He gave you chances. You just weren't getting that for the first 20 games or so. And so for the fact that he's able to do that now against, again, a defense that is probably playing at a top three level right now. Super, super encouraging for him. Yeah, we talked about this on the preview show. We just wanted to see what he looked like as they played against a better defense than...
the bucks all year. And then the current state of this chiefs team. And I think he passes that test. They were 12 and a 12 and a half point underdogs in this game. And they nearly win it. If we'll get hangs onto that ball. The reason they're in this game is that the Eagles offense. continues to be a little bit frustrating and a little bit inconsistent when they drop back and try to throw. Zach Berman, who's a friend of the show, used to work at The Athletic, now works at PHLY.
He tweeted this out afterwards. Somebody was asking AJ Brown, where do we need to improve? And AJ Brown just said, passing. That was AJ Brown's response. And I don't think it's any more complicated than that. When this team drops back right now, there just aren't many things that they can tap into. And Devontae Smith was back in this game. They're playing against a Panthers team that has really struggled on defense.
for a huge chunk of the year. And Jalen Hurts finishes 14 of 21 for 108 yards and ends up taking four sacks. It was... One of the worst games I've seen him play. And I've been pretty critical of him for a lot of the season. I think that was one of the worst games I've seen him play. I'll start with some of the numbers. And these are from a friend of the show, Fran Duffy, who was just on this past week, who did a really great, great, great job.
Hertz is time to throw in this game. 3.7 seconds. It's his slowest mark of the season. 5.1 yards per attempt in this game. His lowest mark of the season. 5.6 air yards per attempt. His lowest mark of... this season so this was just he wasn't even trying to do things that were
Like he was holding onto the ball as if he was going to try to do things and then wasn't actually pushing the ball down the field. And that is basically an impossible way to live as a quarterback. And that's how you end up taking sacks and you end up with some of the throwaways that he had. There was also one play in particular.
particular uh in this game that really i think kind of sums up all of the issues that they were having it was in the second quarter about three minutes left carolina kind of late rotates into this man coverage look where they're sending an extra body. So it's a five man pressure. Jalen Hurts immediately turns to the double slant side to his left. I think it's his two best receivers. I'm pretty sure it's Devonta Smith and AJ Brown looks at both of them, turns it down.
ends up scrambling and throwing the ball away you just can't do that like it's just you cannot do that on a critical down like that so that to me kind of summed up what's what's kind of went on in this game They blitzed him on 57% of his dropbacks today. He finishes 6 of 10 for 40 yards and 4 sacks while blitzed.
Both touchdowns came against the Blitz. So I guess that's maybe something you can hang your hat on. But one of those is again, an out of structure play where they pick up a six man pressure and he still doesn't have an immediate answer. There were a couple of plays in this game where the. Panthers brought six. They block it up and he still has nowhere to go with the ball or still isn't making.
isn't decisive in those moments, even when they're picking up some of those pressures. So their inability to hurt Carolina when they were really bringing extra bodies at the quarterback today. kind of felt a little bit like it did last year. Even if they were able to pick some of that stuff up a little bit more often and a little bit more consistently than they were at the end of last season, their inability to hurt a bad defense that...
Its only answer was let's blitz all the time. It worries me a little bit. The fact that their best option right now when they drop back to throw. is one-on-one curl routes or comebacks to their star receivers or Jalen Hurts scrambling. That's what they got. That's pretty much all that they have. And this, to me, all of the blitz stuff is particularly scary in this game because this was not... like a blitz-friendly script for the defense necessarily.
The Panthers were getting run on for this entire game. Barkley didn't necessarily have his magical 50-yard touchdown that jumpstarts the offense, but he was running the ball pretty consistently in this game, and the Panthers' interior in particular was kind of getting mauled. And so it wasn't like they were just ending up in so many terrible situations. They were able to move the ball a little bit and do some of the stuff they wanted to do. It's just you take away.
I will say the Panthers did a good job of taking away some of the Eagles RPO stuff. So if you take away a couple of those RPO throws and then you're left with a bunch of Hertz dropbacks that are some of their pure dropback stuff. You just kind of get games like this where he's just not able to execute on some of those throws.
Yeah. Fran, when we had him on earlier this week, I wanted to kind of let him take the Eagles section of the what's keeping you up at night about the contenders. And he, cause he knows this team extremely well, talks about them all the time, watches them all the time. And he immediately went to the drop back game. And if I thought more. about it that's probably what my answer would be but he was a little bit
more worried about it than I probably was coming into that discussion. But I left that conversation being very worried about it. And the fact that this is the first data point we got after that conversation, a little scary.
And again, I think that they're strong enough in other areas where they might be able to overcome this. But this sort of performance against a Carolina team that hasn't been able to get out to the passer all year and has been one of the worst pass defenses in the league, it's something to take note of as we think about.
what this Eagles team is as we head into the final four weeks of the season. Exactly. And just think about some of the defensive coordinators and teams that are going to have to play in the playoffs. He's going to get this type of stuff.
Let's stick in the NFC East and chat about the New York Giants who had a 35-yard field goal blocked that would have tied the game. We'll talk about this Giants season in general and their outlook because I want to talk about the draft and what it currently looks like. The number I wanted to point out when discussing that miss from the Giants and just what they've done all season, the Giants have scored, not a touchdown, they've scored on 69.4% of their red zone drives this year.
So only 70% of the time that they're in the red zone, do they even get points? If that sounds low, it is. There have been 16 of those seasons that were less than 70% since 2000. The last team that failed to crack 70% before this one was the 0-16 2017 Browns. Oh, gosh. No, you can't be in the Hugh Jackson territory. That's that's for whatever the stat is, for whatever the number is, you cannot be in the Hugh Jackson, Cleveland Browns territory. Where I'm at with this team.
Is that I think that there is going to be, if I were Brian Dable, I were Brian Dable's people heading into the soft season. My argument would be, listen, we were saddled with Daniel Jones for the last couple of years. We'll be drafting a quarterback near the top of the draft.
Give us our shot with our guy and let's see if we can make this work. Andrew Thomas is hurt. We've been dealing with injuries other places. Let's make one real run at this after we can get our guy in the building. Do you think what we have seen... Trying to remove the Daniel Jones part of this from the last couple years from this coaching staff warrants them getting another opportunity to do this with a different quarterback.
I think it's a little bit tricky because I do think because the rest of the offensive hiring coaching pool has kind of been picked over so much that if you really do want an offensive guy, I could understand sticking with Brian Dable. I also do think when I have watched this. team I haven't necessarily felt like it was an offensive coaching problem to me it's just
Yeah, your offensive line has been mostly bad. They've actually been a little bit better this year. But your offensive line has had a lot of issues over the past handful of years. And then, yeah, you got stuck with Daniel Jones at quarterback because you're a victim of your own success because you made him look good when you had him.
early on and so I like I don't want to fault Brian D'Abel for the quarterback situation because he like it's not his it's in a way his fault that they ended up paying him but I don't think he signed the check and so I would still probably I think if I really had to decide, I would probably be okay with giving Dable one more year with his guy. See if you can win eight, nine games next year with Cam Ward, Shitter Sanders, whoever it is.
I understand the rationale behind that argument I don't think it's unreasonable I just think about my own personal history and would warn against this line of thinking If they decide to bring him back and they think he's their best option, that's fine. But I also think that allowing this regime to draft a quarterback with the first or second overall pick, and just to lay this out here, as of today...
Based on the wins and losses, the Jags win this game today, so they knock themselves out of the top spot. We have eight teams with three or fewer wins, which is just incredible. That was crazy like four weeks ago. It's crazier now. So as it currently stands, the Raiders and the Giants are the only two teams in the league with two or fewer wins. So the Raiders have the number one pick right now, and the Giants have the number two pick.
I would think going into this draft, those are probably the two organizations that most need to draft a quarterback based on where they currently sit. So even if we don't love the quarterbacks in this draft, there have been other drafts like that, right? I think the best example would probably be like the 20. 2017 draft
where, or 2016 draft, where you take Goff and Wentz with the first and second pick, even if those two guys probably aren't worth the first and second pick. You could probably make a similar argument for the Bryce Young and CJ Stroud draft. I don't think anybody thought those were the two best prospects in that draft, but those guys go.
1-2 or 1-3, the Will Anderson part of it is a complicated factor. They go at the top of the draft because they're quarterbacks. So even if you don't love Shadour Sanders and Cam Ward, it does seem like we might be trending in a direction where quarterbacks end up going 1-2. Because the Raiders and Giants get those picks. I think Raiders for sure. Raiders is taking a quarterback. I'm very positive on that. The Giants is like more complicated. I could imagine a world where.
They want to go the veteran route. I don't know who would be at this stage. It would be very funny if for whatever reason, Sam Darnold ends up back in New York. But there's at least I can at least envision the world where the Giants aren't taking quarterback. Raiders is locked in. So, yeah, we are getting a quarterback at the top of the draft.
no matter what the last thing i'll say about this giant saints game it felt like the game was happening in slow motion i that is the best way to frame this because i swear every time i looked over at this game it didn't feel Like a real game that was happening within the context of the rest of Sunday, if that makes sense. It just felt like a circus act that I just, I almost could not believe it was on with the other games. The touchdown to take it to 14 to 11.
is a jump ball to Malik neighbors that hangs in the air for 18 seconds. It felt like he ends up coming down with it. It felt like a punt. He catches it and he, he had to cough in corner at the one yard line. So he catches it and downs it like a pun inside the one. On the next play, Tyrone Tracy scores a touchdown. They don't call it a touchdown.
but then it is reversed while they're lining up for the next play. So Drew Locke is just kind of like confused and looking around me. I guess we scored a touchdown. It was the perfect way for not the game to end, but for a key moment in this game to play out. I couldn't think of a more fitting sequence based on how most of this game felt. The fact that we got Jake Hainer at the end, I cannot believe that we may have to watch the Jake Hainer-led.
New Orleans Saints offense for the final month of the season now that Derek Carr is hurt. It really does seem like we're trending in that direction, and I cannot think of a more horrible fate as an NFL fan. Dude, especially that guy. He plays... Jake, Jake Hainter plays honorable to a fault where he's willing to stand in pockets and take hits that I don't think his body is built to take. And so I get worried for the young man. The last thing I'll say, speaking of ending this game.
The Saints get away with this game because they block a, I think, 35-yard kick. Kickers against the Saints the past three weeks, by the way. Two of eight. And at least two of them are blocks. That is ridiculous, and there is some sort of magic going on. This is why you hire a special teams coordinator to be your interim head coach.
I guess this is the argument. This is this is the argument. And for a while, you know, I guess when you know, when the Ravens hired Harbaugh, they end up taking Tucker. So you get some sort of special teams bump somewhere when you hire the special teams guy. Well, they're offsetting that by what you're going to see with the passing game next week. We're going to potentially see Jake Hayner throwing to Marquez Valdez, Scantling, Cedric Wilson, Kevin Austin Jr., and Dante Pettis. Let's go.
Let's not. I don't really know if that's a game I'm going to have on. I traded for Alvin Kamara in my Keeper Fantasy League. It's like a let's take a run at the championship sort of thing here. I'm crestfallen. This is what we're going to be dealing with, the quality of the offense for the last three weeks. I still haven't come to terms with it. I'm really not happy about it. The good news is where else is the ball going to go?
28 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown is our best hope here with 11 targets. That's going to be the Alvin Kamara workload that you have to be hoping for over the next few weeks. If that's what gets it done. All right. Before we get to Did You See That, we're going to take one more quick break. At Betfair, we're here for those who look at football differently.
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Each week, I'd just like to pick out a couple things from the day that maybe just deserve a cursory kind of conversation. Let's start with Aaron Rodgers throwing for 300 yards for the first time in 35 games, only for the Jets to lose to the Miami Dolphins. Doesn't that sum up their entire season and their entire.
everything about the Rodgers saga. Like they've done everything that they can for a year and a half now to make this Rodgers thing work. You sign him, you get all his friends in the building, you draft guys on that side of the ball. It's like, okay, we're going to make this work. It doesn't work for the longest time. You finally get the 300-yard game that he wasn't even having back at the end of his Green Bay tenure. And you still lose the game to a Dolphins team that...
technically has a chance at the playoffs, but has been a sub 500 team for the entire season. That is just, if that doesn't sum it up, I don't know what does. Again, we mentioned this a little bit earlier. So many busted coverages from the Dolphins today. They're just dropping guys in coverage. It was an ugly performance from the Dolphins' defense. I think it's important to kind of separate that at times.
The Rams offense today stood out to me more than the badness of the bills defense. That was not the case watching Miami today. So many busted coverages. There was one play, the fourth and four ripped to Garrett Wilson, where he stacks jail and Ramsey from the slot. That's a beautiful play, but just as many of the chunk. plays for the jets today were the result of dolphins ineptitude as they were anything about the jets offense. The one area that I did think.
Two things that stood out to me about the Jets' offense performance. One, there was a snap at one point in this game where they were in a split back under center look like they were a Bill Walsh West Coast offense from 1980, which is the most perfect thing of all time because... all Aaron Rodgers ever talks about is how much he loves the purity of the West Coast offense. And the fact that we had an under center split back formation in 2024. Great homage. The real point that I want to make.
158 yards off play action in this game from the Jets. That is more than double that they've had in any other game this season. I fully believe it. When was the last time? Even the final year of Aaron Rodgers with Matt LaFleur didn't feel like he wanted to do a whole lot of that stuff. And then and pretty much anything we've seen with him with the Jets this year is him not wanting to do a whole lot of that stuff. So if they can unlock that a little bit.
It doesn't really matter for the rest of the season, but it at least gives some sort of proof of concept if they want to run this back for whatever godforsaken reason. I want to talk about the Dolphins for a second because I don't think we've really discussed...
the current state of the Dolphins offense that much over the last few weeks since Tua got back. This isn't even about the quality of it. This is just about what they're trying to do on that side of the ball. The Dolphins running game is an abomination. Right now. It is so bad. Devontae chain today goes 14 carries for 24 yards with a 36% success rate. Even with that.
The Dolphins finish week 14 with the highest offensive success rate of any team in the NFL because of what's happening when they're dropping back to throw the ball. The Dolphins passing game. is one of the most efficient passing games in the league. With Tua on the field this year, they would essentially be tied with the Lions for dropback success rate over the course of the season. But the way that they're doing it...
is almost completely flipped from the types of offenses we've seen from them over the last couple years. The Dolphins right now are 21st with Tua. They are 21st in explosive pass rate this season. They were second last year. They were first in 2022. So what they're doing is they're doing all this damage underneath with like these manufactured receptions and it's actually working.
Tua has averaged 5.8 air yards per attempt this year. Since 2010, there's only been one other offense that has been under six yards an attempt over the course of the entire year. It's got to be an Alex Smith year. It is the 2014 Kansas City Chiefs, the team that very famously did not throw a touchdown to a wide receiver for the entire season. I'm so glad I got that. I forgot it was the year that they did not throw a single touchdown, but that is really, really funny.
It's just such a weird offense. They cannot run the ball with any sort of consistency, but their passing game has become an extension of their running game or a substitute for their running game to a point where it almost doesn't matter. So I'm intrigued by it. And I actually.
do think it's very impressive. It just has a lot of quirks to how they're trying to move the ball right now that are different from the Dolphins offenses that we have seen with Mike McDaniel over the last couple of years. And it's kind of twofold. Like if you look at Jalen Waddle and Tyreek. Hill, like their ADOT, they're a little bit lower than last year and definitely lower than they were two years ago. And that's part of it, right? Like I think the first or second.
throw of the game he hits waddle on like a four yard route and he runs it for like 12 yards and it's like okay that's what the offense is now but they still the waddle touchdown today was a yak was a yak play exactly and so they still they do a lot more of that stuff now even if they do still throw some of those
you know, 16 yard in breakers or whatever to them. The real difference is that Jonu Smith, I forget the numbers now. And I wrote this, I think maybe two weeks ago in the column that I do. Jonu Smith. his air yards or his his average depth of target is like two yards shorter than any other tight end with Tua ever. And so that and he's doing it at like twice the volume of any of those guys. So that is really the difference of why this offense is starting to feel a little bit different.
I will say that final touchdown to Johnny Smith, it's a beautiful ball. Like the touch on that ball and how soft that throw is as it falls into Johnny Smith's hands. I've actually been very impressed with. the point guard that Tua has played within this offense this year because it has felt a little bit different. The degree of difficulty on the throws is easier than it's been.
at other times since he's been with Mike McDaniel, but the overall operation and how important he is to the operation, he feels more crucial to it, even if the degree of difficulty with the actual... passing elements maybe are easier than they've been in recent years. Does that make sense? It does. And this is the way that I'll explain it. It used to be more point and shoot, but the throws were hard and you just had to trust your guys were going to be there. I can fit this throw in.
The throws are a little bit easier now in theory, but he's having to read it out a little bit more and like take his time and actually like see things through. So I think I think that's a great point about why it's starting to feel a little bit different for him than maybe it has the past two years under Mike McDaniel. Let's get to our next one here. Did you see the fiery Matt Eberflus did not suddenly fix the Chicago Bears?
I did, and I think I could have foreseen this going into this game, that hiring or firing Matt Iversluis was not going to fix anything. There are a number of ways that you could go with this. The Bears ended up having a first-time play caller in his first game against Kyle Shanahan. How else is that going to go but this way? Like, this is the only way that this can go. The potential benefit of hiring your head coach is that...
The players hated that head coach so much that they get renewed life with that head coach out of the building. The problem with the Bears situation is that that element of it has to overcome two things happening at once. Your head coach was also your defensive play caller, and he actually, by all measures, is a good defensive coordinator. You replaced him with a former defensive line coach who has never been a defensive coordinator before, calling his first game against Kyle Shanahan. Point one.
Two, something we alluded to heading into this and a downside that I felt like was worth exploring and hadn't really been mentioned that much. Thomas Brown was your passing game coordinator. You fired Shane Waldron. You made him your offensive coordinator.
It was working. The offense looked much better since you did that. Now, three weeks into that experiment, you fire your head coach. You make your offensive coordinator your head coach. So now he's both overseeing all of the offense and being the head coach. Everyone during the broadcast and all week.
They were talking about this anecdote where he called all the players. He called every single player this weekend. Sure. That's great. If you're the head coach, you can do that. If you're the offensive coordinator, I think that your bandwidth to be calling all the players will also coming up with it.
offensive game plan, you might be stretching yourself a little bit thin. And the fact that the offense looked not functional again today, you could have maybe seen some of this coming. They had what four yards in the first half. And like they put some stuff together in the second half and then had some turnovers that like ruined it. But they had four yards. And those the first half is your we scripted these. These are the plays we're comfortable with.
And this is not a very good Niners defense. This is like an average, maybe slightly above on their best day Niners defense. This is not some juggernaut that they ran into. And so for them to have four yards in the first half when I think on the other side of the ball. Niners had like 300 and something. It just this game in all of the ways that it could go bad for the firing your head coach and then all the trickle down effects of that. You basically saw all of them in effect today.
Yeah, we don't have to talk about this anymore. Your next one here. You wanted to mention a Russell Wilson moment from this game that you saw. I did. Russell Wilson, another really good. touchdown throw over the middle and here's what i'm gonna say about this it was another seam ball which last week he threw a really nice seam ball that one was more on the move last week where he has to you know
squeeze out of the pocket a little bit to his right this one was just one two three boom my foot's in the ground throw this seam ball for a touchdown the reason i think he is able to throw these a little bit more what does russ always want to do he wants to throw vertical but he's always struggled a little bit over the middle of the field
How do we somehow trick him to throwing the middle of the field? We tell him it's a vertical route. And so just say, but we're going to call these screens or all these seam routes to these really big tight ends. Go get it. Just go pin it in there. And to his credit, I think he's actually throwing him pretty well.
This really has been a season of just incepting Russ into thinking that he's in control, when in actuality you're putting the right amount of guardrails on him. Yes, it seemed like that was all Pete Carroll was doing for a decade until we got the Let Russ Cook movement. Last one here. Did you see that you can take the Jags Titans out of Thursday Night Football, but you cannot take the Thursday Night Football out of Jags Titans? A 10-6 win for the Jacksonville Jaguars today.
I want to point out this sequence before we never talk about this again. At one point in this game, late in the second quarter, the Titans have a fourth and goal from like the one yard line. They do not get it. Okay. They failed to score. They had two fourth and goals in this game or four downs inside the 10 where they came away with zero points. The Jags get the ball back. Mac Jones throws a gross pick in like the final seconds of the half.
The ball is intercepted with one second left. On the only play from midfield where the Titans theoretically could have thrown a Hail Mary. Josh Hines Allen comes unblocked off the edge, crushes Will Levis, and he fumbles on the final play of the half. So within like...
three minutes of real time. We got a failed fourth and one from the Titans, a disgusting Mac Jones interception at midfield, only for the Titans to follow that up with a one play drive where they let their quarterback get absolutely decimated. He fumbles end of half. That's it. That was this game.
It's completely disgusting. I'm so glad you mentioned the Thursday night football aspect of this. Do you remember specifically the color rush game they played where the Jaguars had the most? I remember where I was when I watched that game. Oh, that's like almost, that's like jarring. That's a scarring memory that you remember that vividly. But like that game in particular and the way it looked visually is basically how I feel about these two teams playing.
Every time that I see them. And now it's not even fun, at least in previous matchups. Derrick Henry used to somehow always have like a 90 yard run against them. We don't even get that anymore. It's just there's just nothing here.
We haven't really talked much about the Titans. I mean, they've been bad for a huge chunk of this season. They haven't really taken up a lot of attention. We are going to do something over the next three, four, five weeks before the end of the regular season, talking about the first-year coaches.
And just what we should think about year one of all of these new regimes. And I think that's when we'll have a little bit more time and space to have a considered Titans conversation. Because unlike some of the other bad teams in the league, the Giants...
the Raiders, even the Jags to an extent, we know how that's probably going to go. The Raiders probably will fire their head coach at the end of the year. The Jags will fire their head coach at the end of the year. The Titans are in year one. So trying to take stock of what we should think about this team moving forward after what has been an objectively...
disappointing season we are going to take some time to do that at some point over the next few weeks all right before we get out of here let's talk about what we learned in week 14 you know i think i've learned something today lay it on me what do you got
I have learned that I am fully done with quarterbacks who are seemingly worse athletes than I am. And I think today was a really, really good marker for that. We had Kirk Cousins, who just could not move against the Brian Flores defense for a lot of this game.
Aiden O'Connell has been one of, you know, the most cement foot guys in the entire league for his time playing. And then Mac Jones was starting in this game. And he is the guy who is obviously, you know, he ends up winning his game. Credit to him. But he is the guy who is not very mobile. I'm not asking every guy to be Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen or Jaden Daniels or any of that. But can you be Sam Darnold?
Can you give me enough where I can at least trust you to make two plays outside of the pocket of game? That's all I need. Can you beat Brock Purdy? Can you have that level of athleticism? That's all we need. You don't need to be a superstar. We just need to be not tied to the. two-by-two box in between the tackles? Mine is going to be so stupid, but I've really...
Been fixated on this over the last few weeks, knowing that the Bears were going to fire Eberflus, but just in general, as we think about the coaching carousel, me and Connor are going to do a show this week about the coaches that are going to be up for those jobs and just what this cycle might look like. And as I've started to prepare for that. And as I think about what this week in the NFL looked like, if you don't get that job right, if you don't get that hire right, you just have no shot.
You just have absolutely no shot. You look at the teams that are coached poorly and you look at the teams that are coached well, and they might as well be playing different sports. And I think about this from a Bears-centric lens because, of course, I do. But the fact that the Bears are now hiring a head coach in a division that includes Dan Campbell, Matt LaFleur, and...
Kevin O'Connell. And you look at what those three teams were like this week. You think back to that Packers-Lions game and what it feels like to watch those teams, even a banged up Lions team that somehow wins that game. You look at what the Vikings are on offense with a guy in Sam Darnold. who other teams couldn't kick out of the building fast enough over the last five years. And then I even think about a game like today. I know Sean McDermott doesn't have a great...
set of game management decisions in the second half of that game. But the way the Bills have played all year and what was supposed to be a little bit of a reset year and what the Rams can look like when you have somebody like Sean McVay at the center of all of this.
I was talking to my wife about this this weekend. We were just having a discussion about football. We never talk about it, but we were talking about coaches and just how important they are because I was discussing the prospect of trading for a coach. And she's like, that's crazy. Like a team would actually do that? Like, what would you give up for a coach?
you'd give up a lot because in football, coaches are extremely important. Coaches can reshape everything about your organization, the type of team that you are, if you hire the right one. And the fact that there are some of these teams that... You'll know immediately, like you'll know almost immediately, even if it's not going to be a total disaster. We know we didn't hit on a guy who has the upside.
Of a top 10 coach. Or a top 8 coach. And if you don't have one of those guys. Life is just so incredibly hard. So if we get 6-7 openings. Over the next month or so, and we get six, seven hires, you've got six or seven decisions that are ultimately going to reshape the future and the outcomes for entire organizations.
I know that I'm going to be going into that as somebody who roots for one of those teams with more fear than excitement. And sometimes you can immediately know that you have the guy. Like sometimes it does take a little bit of time for you to figure this stuff out.
Look at the Vikings with Kevin O'Connell. It was immediate success. Even with Dan Campbell, when the Lions were so bad, like they just could not win games because the roster was so terrible. I think every single person watched that first year Lions team and went.
they're really well coached team. They have zero players. And I don't know how many of these guys will be on the roster three years from now, but every single person looked at them and said, they're doing everything possible to set these guys up to win the game. And then in the game, call the game.
in a way that is going to allow you to win. And there are just, you see from a lot of these other teams, a lot of these other coaches, there's always going to be some mix of, you know, some degree of there's 10 just mediocre coaches in the NFL. You just hope that by... Eight weeks into the first season, you don't immediately realize you have one of them. I guarantee you that some team will when we get eight weeks into the 2025 season.
That's all we've got for today. Like I mentioned, got kind of a packed week on the athletic football show feed coming to you guys over the next few days. We're doing a special show about this year's coaching carousel with me and Connor. We're also going to have a conversation with Jordan Rodriguez and Alec Lewis about Kevin. o'connell as part of that show you know as a kind of a bookmark of what this cycle might look like
What does the right head coach look like? And what has Kevin O'Connell brought to the Vikings that some other teams might be able to learn from as they seek out their next head coach? We've also got our normal midweek show. Me and you, buddy. We're going to be doing the midweek show this week. The Monday night game this week is Bengals-Cowboys, so we're going to use that as sort of a jumping off point to chat about some of the teams that just...
have had a lost season, like teams that had playoff aspirations that let their season slip away from them. So that will be coming your guys's way on Wednesday. So be on the lookout for all of that. In the meantime. If you're watching this on YouTube, if you could like, subscribe to the channel, we would sincerely appreciate that. If you're listening to this on your podcast platform of choice,
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That is all we've got sincerely appreciate all of you guys listening. We'll be back later this week. NFL fans, there's a new way to watch your favorite teams. On December the 25th at 5 p.m. GMT, the Christmas games will stream live on Netflix. Your Christmas Day will be complete with the Kansas City Chiefs versus the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens versus Houston Texans live on Netflix. You won't want to miss it.