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Okay. Hello, I'm Ian McIntosh and I'm the host of the Daily Football Briefing. What is the Daily Football Briefing? It's a special 10-minute daily show designed to bring you up to speed with the most important stories from across the football world. Except on Monday mornings when it's...
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to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Part two of our divisional round preview is here, breaking down the Sunday games. Me and Derek Klassen kick things off with Rams at Eagles, a rematch from a game we saw earlier this year where the Eagles ran away with it, but... Maybe the game might have been a little bit closer than we remember at first glance. So we talked about that rematch and some of the other things to look for in this game between those two teams. We also broke down.
the game of the year, the game of the last five years in the divisional round, the Baltimore Ravens going on the road to play against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. It does not get much better than that. So me and Derek hit both of those games. Let's chat with. them right now all right Derek here we go part two
of our divisional round preview here on the Athletic Football Show. Let's dig right into it. The Rams at the Eagles presented by BetMGM. The Eagles are six-point favorites in this game. I want to pose a question to you. that our producer Michael Bauer asked us when we were talking about these games, said, coming into the season, would we have been surprised if either of these teams were in the NFC Championship game? What is your response to that?
No, but I would have thought it would have been the Rams scoring 35 points every game and Matthew Stafford still looking like one of the best quarterbacks in the league. I think what's funny, like more to that point is.
So we've had the Eagles who were fighting for the one seed for a majority of the season. They've dominated a lot of these games. And the Rams are the ones that kind of took this winding road. They're stumbling into the playoffs. They barely get in at the last couple of weeks of the season. Whereas if you told me at the beginning of the season, I would have.
Yeah, the Rams won like 12, 13 games. They had one of the best offenses in the league. The defense was good enough. And the Eagles were trying to figure stuff out for the majority of the season. You didn't know how good their defense was going to be. And now the fact that we're here and they basically flipped spots there is.
It's funny that it's the same teams but completely different circumstances. I do think that you could make an argument. The Rams team we saw against Minnesota is the ideal version of what we thought this Rams team could be.
They can sling it all over the yard. They still have, when all their pieces are on the field, their offense is very good. That young defense has a lot of players up front. Can they be a chaotic group that's opportunistic, that gets sacks, that gets turnovers? But it took a long time.
to find that for the ramps. The offense just was so inconsistent for most of this season. The Eagles, I also think they're the best version of themselves compared to what our preseason expectations might've looked like, but they've looked like that since like week three. It did not take. them very long to get here. So it's interesting that they've both landed in a pretty good spot, but the Eagles have been the consistent team that kind of found it almost immediately where the Rams who.
This offensive staff has been in place. There's more continuity over there. For them, it's been a little bit more up and down than we might have thought coming into the season. I understand the defense is young, but the offense is kind of ready-made. We understood what that was supposed to be.
Right. That's kind of the thing is that the defense actually has been. Even in the world where I thought they could get to the conference championship, the defense has basically been what I thought it would be, where you just get some explosivity, but they're just inconsistent. It's that the fact that the offense has oscillated from.
horrifically injured and not who they want to be. And then they kind of figure it out and they start to look okay again. But then the last month of the season, they're still kind of on a dip. And then they go and play against the Vikings and they look like the best offense in the league. Like they've just... On a week-to-week basis, this offense could be, you just open it up and you don't know what you're going to get. If there's a through line between these teams for me, I think both of them.
over the last like seven-ish years, have done a good job of iterating and reinventing themselves. If you look at the timeline for both of these franchises, Sean McVay gets there in 2017 and reinvents what the Rams are. Howie Roseman steps back from the bowels of the Eagles facility and takes back over in.
2016 and several times over the last seven years has reinvented what the Eagles are. The Eagles have had different coaching staffs, right? That's the biggest difference. But the Rams, even though McVay has been there the whole time, they've had two different quarterbacks the same way the Eagles had over that. stretch. They've had multiple defensive coordinators. They've had multiple offensive coordinators. Even with the same quarterback, we had a version of the Rams offense that was...
under center shotgun or under center play action. And then Stafford gets there and it's really spread out and in the gun. And then now they're back to an under center play action place. You know, the Eagles have played a bunch of different versions of their offense at the end of the day, though.
The success has been pretty similar. These are teams that are in it to the end most years at this point, with some exceptions. The Rams bottomed out one year. The Eagles crashed out at the end of last year. They've been to two Super Bowls each in this stretch. They've won one Super Bowl. So I think...
in terms of how proactive these staffs, the coaching staffs and the front offices are in both places and the success that it's wrought for both franchises, there actually is more that ties these two together than I might've thought at first glance.
The front office thing, like obviously they go about things a little bit differently, but just the aggressiveness and like the assertiveness at which they will make sure they're going to make the best roster that they can make, I think has always been impressive. And then to me too, even though.
The central pillar for why they've always been able to pivot is different. They both obviously have one. With the Rams, it's Sean McVay. He is such an unbelievable coach that he's always been able to find whatever the next answer is, whether it's...
You know, kind of just shifting up some of your run game stuff or literally making a huge trade to go get a different quarterback and changing the offense, even with that new quarterback multiple times. Whereas with the Eagles, it's been how they built the offensive line. The fact that they built this offensive line and stuff.
Yes, exactly. He's their pivot guy. We're like, because he's so good and the players that he coaches are so good, you can get away with being a little bit more aggressive and being able to pivot consistently because you know you're going to have a top five offensive line every single season.
Yeah, it's a great point. And I think it was part of me that the schematics are what I was like really interested in this game. And sometimes it's hard to find like an entry point. And as soon as I thought of that, I was like, oh, that actually does make more sense, even if I'm trying to like. conjure something out of thin air as we're getting ready to do this show. Let's start with when the Rams have the ball in this game. The number one thing you are looking for when the Rams are on offense.
So I know because the Rams got blown out in the last game, it feels like maybe they didn't play their best game on both sides of the ball. Their offense was kind of good. In the first game around, especially early on before the game started to get out of hand when the Eagles were scoring every single drive and they were running for 300 yards and all that stuff on the other side and choking the life out of the game. Early on when the Eagles were playing more of their cover three stuff.
The Rams were shredding them, man. Like they were getting into that under center stuff. They were calling a couple of screens. Their boot game was incredible. There were some moments where they were really clearing out the hook players, you know, whether it was Bon or Dean and being able to hit Puka Nakua. on a digger out behind it. Like they just had, they were so locked in on what the Eagles were trying to do at a single high that I think.
As soon as they got out of it on a game script perspective, because the Eagles just kept scoring so many points on the other side, that's when it started to fall away. But if this game stays a little bit closer a little bit earlier, I actually do think there's a world where... The Rams can still kind of keep pace and do well on offense. And I think that's interesting, too, because.
Coming off of last week's game, so much of why they beat the Vikings was, well, Matthew Stafford shredded the blitz and he can do that to you. The Eagles don't blitz. And so I think some people have thought like, oh, well, if you just don't throw that stuff at Matthew Stafford and he's not going to beat you that way, then it's easier to put it.
cap on them but because of how well they played this specific defense the first time around i just don't think that that's going to be true i think they have answers here two things i would throw out that kind of explains the gap in this game You look at success rates, which is not an end-all be-all, but it's worth just thinking about. The Eagles' success rate on offense in this game was 48.5%. The Rams was 47.5%. The Rams were 0-8 on third down. That'll do it.
Saquon had a 70-yard touchdown run. Like, it really was closer down to down than I think the final score. would lead you to believe. And now the question is, can the Rams replicate some of that stuff on offense? So if you're trying to build the correct game plan for this version of the Rams offense against what the Eagles are, where does that start for you?
I think, like I said, a lot of what they did well the last time around was really abusing these second-level players and really getting them out of their comfort zone in some of these zone coverages, whether it was... in the under center play action game by removing some of the hook players or some of, again, some of their boot stuff where they're getting guys running out into the flats and kind of confusing, you know, whether it's the down safety or linebacker about.
how quickly they need to get out into the flat. I think that is especially true in this game when one Tyler Higbee is in this game, which he did not play the last time these two teams played and the Kobe Dean is out and the Kobe Dean was a huge force in this game the last time, whether it was blitz.
run defense playing coverage like he was phenomenal so that difference there is huge and then the last one i would say warren mclendon was playing right tackle the last time these two teams played now that you have rob havenstein back this team has been like I don't remember the exact number, but they're like five to six percent better in terms of pressure rate when Havenstein is on the field compared to when he was not on the field this year. So like that alone.
Some huge swings in this game that, again, like you said, was closer than you remember the first time around. And now some of these personnel things are shifting. I think it can be a better game than we might think. The Rams get Higby and Havenstein back. The Eagles, you mentioned to Kobe Dean, he was phenomenal in this game. As a blitzer, he was all over the place. He's out.
And the other guy who had a monster game for the Eagles in the first matchup was Brandon Graham. He was an absolute terror. He was all over the place, and he's not playing in this game. You got two guys coming back for the Rams and two guys who are out of the lineup for the Eagles. The one difference, and if we're talking about health.
Isaiah Rogers came into this game for Darius Slay probably about halfway through, and the Rams were able to pick on him a little bit. So some of that success they had in the first matchup was a product of Slay not being on the field, and obviously he will be playing in this game.
That is a really good point. But I will say, too, even that feels a little bit less like an issue for this particular Ramstein, because so much of what they're trying to do is motion and beating zone anyway, that like the one on one quarter matchup.
feels a little bit less pronounced in this game than it might in some others. They had like the big P.I. on Rodgers last game. Just stuff like that. There were a couple swing moments, but I think overall you're probably right. The one thing I can't get out of my head...
You mentioned this and how often they were running those little slide routes into the flat just over and over and over again. We saw the Packers attack the flat against the Eagles a lot in that matchup. So clearly offenses from this tree and I would almost guarantee you. LaFleur watched that game between the Rams when he was game planning for the Eagles. I can't get out of my head the idea of the Rams running like one leak play in this game off of that under center boot action with the slide.
Because if you watch it, they dress it up a few different ways. And a couple of the personnel groupings and a couple of the ways they were running it. That backside corner is flying over. And I'm just sitting there looking at it and I'm like pausing the tape and just in my mind, just circling that huge bit of green grass behind it. And why I think something like that is potentially important. This Eagles team allowed the lowest.
explosive pass rate in the NFL this year. So how are you going to find explosives against this pass defense? I think you might have to do something designery to get there. And I don't know. I just think that might be on the table based on what their offensive game plan looks like the first time around. I mean, that might be their only option for explosives other than maybe just some insane Puka Nakua catch and run, but like...
They don't have there in previous iterations of this offense, the Brandon Cooks or the Sammy Watkins in the passing game. And then in the running game, they're the most sure four and a half yards in the league. They don't really have many 10 plus runs. And so this like.
Being able to find these one or two like weird niche counter punches like this, this really might be their best option to get a huge chunk gain. And again, against the Eagles defense that puts a lid on everything and doesn't give you a lot of those, you're going to need one of these weird punches to go get.
to go get your big game. All right, let's get to the other side of the ball here. When the Eagles have the ball, number one thing you were looking for in this game. Okay, so I know we say stop the run a lot. But like when you give up like 300 or so yards in the last time that these two teams played.
I think that is very obviously the place that this thing has to start. I mean, you have a running back who had a historic season rushing for 2,000 yards. And part of that is because of what he did to this specific front the last time that these two teams played. I mean, this is... This is a Rams front that they are good for a lot of reasons. Some of their interior players, you can move around every now and then, like Braden Fisk, awesome pass rusher. Not the greatest run defender.
Their interior guys are small. Yes, that's how they built it. That's how they're built. The outside guys are power players and the interior guys are small. It's actually kind of a fascinating collection of upfront pieces. It is weird now. It works. It's a very dynamic group, but it is built in kind of a strange way. It's like the literal opposite of the Eagles, which is funny when you think about like Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith as these like tiny 240, 50 pound guys. And then you have...
Jordan Davis sitting there over there in the middle. Like it is funny how they're built in that way. But yeah, when you have that, the Rams don't necessarily lose in that way against every single offensive line and every single team. But when it's the Eagles who can move around just about anybody, yeah, man, you're going to end up in a really difficult situation there. The one thing I noticed going back and watching a lot of those big runs is it seemed like they were in this kind of...
Penny personnel where they had five. There was a five down front with one off ball linebacker with Michael Hoyt in the game, kind of as this like roaming piece, like he's standing up, but he's standing up in the B gap. And so there weren't. There's literally like one second level player on a lot of these chunk runs. And so I wonder, are they just going to stay out of that stuff?
For whatever reason, was that a big issue in that first game that they're going to try to avoid in this game? I have no idea if that's causal or not. I just noticed that that was the group of players on the field when a lot of this stuff was happening. Honestly, I would be scared of that because... The way you give up explosive runs is that you are trying to pack the paint.
And like you said, you spring into the second level and you're just there's nobody to go catch him. And against Saquon Barkley specifically, who is one of the most explosive backs that we've ever seen, and particularly this year was incredible. I would be very scared of doing that. And I know.
If you don't do that and maybe you play a little bit more of your too high stuff, you're a little bit lighter and you're giving up more of these six yard gains. I know it feels bad to get beat six yards at a time. I feel like I would still rather live that way than giving Barkley that many chances to pop another 70-yard run on me.
especially because Jalen Hurts has been significantly better this year against some of those single high looks than he is when you play a variety of coverages against him when you try to keep a lid on it a little bit. So if you want to play that way, I think that they're... There's a lot of credence to that game plan, even if it seems counterintuitive because you're so worried about Saquon Barkley. A couple other things I think specific about this matchup that are problematic for the Rams.
When you look at the tackles for the Vikings, Brian O'Neal and Cam Robinson, Brian O'Neal is a good player. Brian O'Neal is a little bit smaller and not necessarily as much of an anchorer as bigger tackles in the league. The Rams edge players in that game can just crush the pocket because there's a significant power advantage between them and the Vikings tackles.
This is the exact opposite situation. Jordan Mailata weighs 380 pounds. Lane Johnson is one of the best anti-bull rush right tackles in professional football. Last game, Jared Verse had one pressure. on 19 pass rush snaps. So while Jared versus a phenomenal player, this matchup specifically is not where you're going to get the best version of him. And I think if you remove.
the best version of Jared Verse from this defense, you can really start to chip away at what this team is. I agree. And the Eagles, it's kind of twofold because... So my Lada and Johnson are both just better players than verse. And that's not a knock on verse. Like they're all pro level talents. Like they're incredible. Yeah. But it's also that the Eagles, if they can run the ball 30, 40 times at you.
It's hard to get up for a pass rush when you're just getting beat up every single play. And then you've got to go run into the 320-pound Jordan Mailata. It's hard to play that way. And this is one of the only teams where you're worried about Jared Verse getting beat up over the...
course of the game rather than vice versa right and that's that's their superpower like you said is jared verse is going to control the game for us okay well if you've got the two guys that can control jared verse looking tough The other player-specific thing we have to mention, AJ Brown was a problem.
in this first game. And I think on crossing routes, on one-on-one matchups on the outside, like how they try to neutralize him in this game, I think will go a long way for the Rams. And the last thing, and this has been a consistent issue for defenses playing against the Eagles all year. Jalen Hurts scrambles.
were huge in that first matchup. Can you keep him from scrambling when they don't have answers? Because that is one area. I think that he's had some issues this year reading stuff out. If you want to play man against the Eagles, you're going to run into trouble. But if you can.
throw some funkier coverages at him. We've seen the limitations of this passing game, but one thing he has done better this year than in previous years is when the opportunities are there, he is going to scramble and it can lead to some backbreaking plays against you. That is a part of this game that I would expect to happen again because there's just... The Rams linebackers will go and hit. They're actually decent between the tackles.
Not the fastest guys out there. Not really sideline to sideline players. So I would imagine that Jalen Hurts is going to have a day if he needs to. The supporting piece that you are paying attention to most in this game is who? I mean, I'm going to go back a little bit. I mentioned how important N'Kobe Dean was, not just in this last game that they played, but how important he's been to this entire defense. Like, I think it's important to remember, or I think we all get.
you know, wrapped up in how Zach Bond is played and Cooper Dejean. But like, N'Kobe Dean's presence really went a long way for this team. The fact that now Oren Burks is having to step in for him, I think this has to be a big game for Burks. Like, can he be the level of blitzer that Dean is? Can he be the level of...
coverage player that Dean has been at times I think whether or not you know Sean McVay is one of the the premier put a linebacker in the microscope type of guys and so if he can find Oren Burks I think we might have a tough day for the Eagles here That's a really good one. My answer, I wanted to do an offensive lineman of pretty much every single one of these, but ended up stopping myself. I am going to do it here, though. I'm going with Bo Limmer.
Rams center, Bo Limmer. And it's for this very specific reason. If you watch the Eagles defense and you watch Jalen Carter specifically, this is a defensive line that is going to start like slant and stunt. And also. Carter loves backdooring stuff. He loves like, all right, I'm in the play side B gap as a three technique, but I'm going to backdoor the play or as a pass rusher.
He'll do that where he'll be lined up in the a gap on the left side and he'll cross the center's face and have it be a real problem. So liver both in the, in, as a run blocker and as a pass blocker, if. Carter is going to play like that, I think becomes even more important than he would be in other situations. There were multiple plays in that first game where Carter is causing disruption in almost that exact way. And so I think Limmer becomes like an...
important piece against Jalen Carter specifically in this game because of that. I love that because I actually almost went with... the non-Carter defensive tackles, whether it's Davis or Milton Williams, who's been incredible this year, or like Mauro Ajomo, who is their fourth guy and also kind of good. So you picking the flip side of that. Mauro Ajomo would have been just a bridge too far. He's kind of good, man. It's just when you're buried.
between three other players. That being a focal point of our divisional round preview is not something I would have anticipated. All right, we're going to take a quick break and then we're going to get back with the game of the weekend. I use the New York Times games app every single day. I love playing Connections. With Connections, I need to twist my brain to see the different categories. I think I know this connection. Look.
Bath is a city in England. Sandwich is a city in England. Reading is a city in England. And I'm going to guess Derby is a city in England. I started Wordle 194 days ago and I haven't missed a day. The New York Times games app has all the games right there.
Absolutely love spelling bee. I always have to get genius. I've seen you yell at it and say that should be a word. Totally should be a word. Sudoku is kind of my version of lifting heavy weights at the gym. At this point, I'm probably more consistent with it. doing the crossword than brushing my teeth. When I can finish a hard puzzle without pins, I feel like the smartest person in the world. When I have to look up a clue to help me, I'm learning something new. It gives me joy every single day.
Start playing in the New York Times games app. You can download it at nytimes.com slash games app. All right, here we go. Ravens at Bills Sunday nights. Ravens are minus one and a half in this game. This is what we do this for. Just plain and simple like this. I've been doing this for.
13 years now. These are the types of games that no matter how long you're doing it, no matter how much you've seen, this is what you get up for. The two guys who are the MVP favorites in the league, two of the best teams in the NFL. Two guys where the quarterback specifically, everything is on the line for them here. Like everything is at stake with how important this game and these playoffs are. So it really just doesn't get.
Much better than this. Like this is the best divisional round playoff game that you could possibly ask for. This is what makes those. When it's like week 13 and we get one of the most just boring, nonsensical Sundays, you know that this is coming in a month and a half. And especially to this game is it's not just that the quarterbacks have been.
truly both the best versions of themselves have everything on the line. It's that this for like years now has been a matchup that every January we're hoping like, man, can we just see this in the most important game of the season? And now we're here. Whoever wins this is going to have to go play presumably Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship game. That's what we live for, man, is to get Patrick Mahomes versus X other superstar quarterback in the AFC.
Yeah, we've talked about this. I think this game is more important to Lamar. just in terms of changing the conversation around him when it comes to how he plays in the playoffs. Because Josh Allen, even if he hasn't broken through, he still had some monster playoff performances in huge games. Lamar hasn't necessarily had those in the biggest moments, and I think...
Last week was a good start, but that's worth paying attention to. At the same time, Josh Allen winning a Super Bowl goes a very long way in changing the way that we discuss Josh Allen, right or wrong. And so I think what is personally at stake for both of these guys and the...
fact that in a lot of ways it feels like these teams have been building to this moment even though the bills have been on the doorstep of a championship before what those offenses were doing in 2020 and 2021 they just weren't as complete as a team like this The Ravens were the number one seed in 2019. They had an offense that was really capable of burning teams down in very specific situations. But bringing in Todd Monken and becoming this more versatile...
kind of weakness-free version of themselves, they've been building to this moment. So it really does feel like this game specifically, and... This moment specifically has been years in the making, not only for both of these quarterbacks, but for both of these franchises. And you know what's kind of funny and beautiful and for these two franchises a little bit sad and sickening?
This is all for a chance to go play against Patrick Mahomes. You don't even get to the Super Bowl for this. You get a chance to go play God, basically. It's just where these two teams have been stuck for, like you said, three years now.
And I think that's such a great thing to bring up. And Jeff Howell wrote about this for The Athletic this week. And it's a thought I've had a lot. And honestly, it's almost something I wrote back at The Ringer. We were just talking about sliding doors moments in NFL history. All the things that didn't happen because the Patriots existed.
And we're at the same place with the chiefs. Now, like this might be one of the greatest playoff games we've ever seen. This might be a moment where we say, all right, here it is. Like it's finally going to happen for Lamar or Josh Allen. And then they go on the road against the chiefs team. That feels a little.
bit diminished compared to some of the other ones we've seen and Mahomes just rips their heart out in the way that he's done in the past like that's not off the table but that is not taking away from how excited I am about this game right like regardless of what happens next week I'm I'm I'm going to let
this Sunday game wash over me in the way that I think we all deserve we don't usually do this but I think with a game of this magnitude it might be worth hitting on in this way like what is your early read on this I know this sounds ridiculous for what is, I think, pretty obviously and objectively the closest game that we're going to get this weekend. On that note, earlier this week, Seth Walder from ESPN.
tweeted a image of like the espn playoff predictor and it's a you know it's a pie chart it's 50 whatever percentage on either side It's the first time I've ever seen it. It was literally 50-50. The line was right down the middle for who had a better chance to win this game, which it says everything you need to know. Yeah, I don't think I've ever seen that. And I think the line opened...
with like a point in Buffalo's favor. And now it's only a point in Baltimore's favor. Like it is literally right on the line. All of that being said, and I still think this is going to be a close game. I feel like relatively confident that the Ravens are going to win this game. Like I feel about as good, given how close it is, I feel as good about that as I could. I really do.
All right, so where does that start for you? I assume that starts with the Ravens offense and what they can do against this Bills defense. Both sides of the ball. It's really hard for me to find the area where I think the Bills have the advantage outside of... Josh Allen goes into
Super Saiyan mode, which is always on the table and it's the thing I am most scared of here. But when I just look at this game on paper and like if I were to simulate it a thousand times, it's just so hard for me to find the areas where I truly feel like Buffalo has the advantage right now.
where does that start for you when the Ravens have the ball? Dude, when I watched the game back when they played the last time around, Todd Monken, specifically in the run game, they were frying them, dude. And the thing is... They have built this Ravens offensive line. They probably don't bully and move people off the ball as much as you think. A lot of it is what they can do with eye candy. It's the it's the traps that they're running angles. And yes, exactly. And like and then you just have.
two superhuman ball carries in Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, obviously. And it really makes this thing go specifically against the Bills who they're a light front. They're a four down front. They want to get after you. They want to shoot gaps. They want to go crazy.
You saw in this last game that they played, they were able to get Ed Oliver on a number of traps. The first play of the game, they run crunch, which is like a double trap. And Henry springs it for like a triple trap. Yeah, yeah, triple. And they spring it for a touchdown immediately. And then the rest of the game. It's them doing actually one wrinkle. I want to say usually when you get split zone, you're having the tight end split across the entire formation and he's going to go block the end.
Well, Todd Mockin realized our biggest threat right now is actually Ed Oliver at defensive tackle. So they ran like a sawed off split zone where they actually let the three tech through and they they hit him with the splitter. And so them just doing stuff like that. I expect that. Todd Monken is going to be in his bag again with that stuff. And they're going to be able to get a lot of what they want on the ground game. Specifically against these four down front penetrating teams.
I think the Ravens have a really good understanding of how they want to attack them. The Bills are a very good example of this, and you mentioned it. All of the trap designs they're running, the amount of draws the Ravens ran in the first game. They hit a handful in this one. it was like five or six draws and it's quarterback draw. I mean, it's just so many different variations of it. And it was consistently a positive play for them.
And another really a team that kind of fits this exact bill where it's a good defense, but the Ravens, for whatever reason, I think just have a really good sense of how they want to go after it. The Texans are like this. The Texans are a four down nickel team that wants. to get up the field and look at what the Ravens did to them in that game. So I think this type of matchup just structurally, Todd Monken has a really good feel for how he wants to go after these sorts of teams.
100%. And there was a part of me that, so when you do watch this last game back, the Buffalo didn't have their linebackers, their starting linebackers. Either one. Yeah, and they will in this game. In some instances, I would think that would be a problem. And I do think because Terrell Bernard is a really fast player, there will probably be one or two other instances where he can get in the backfield where that didn't happen last game.
But these linebackers don't hit. They don't take on blocks like that's not what they do. And so for for that to not be an issue, I think the Ravens are still for the most part going to be able to get what they want in the run game.
See, here's where I disagree with you. The run game thing I think is fine. And the one thing I think is worth mentioning, they did run a lot of pin pull and they did get the ball on the perimeter a lot. So being able to cover sideline to sideline at linebacker, I do think has an impact potentially on. what the Ravens can try to tap into. But I think the area where we saw the linebackers and felt their absence most...
was when the Ravens were throwing the ball in the last game. I mean, there's like a half dozen examples of this. The Justice Hill wheel route touchdown. Isaiah likely catches a big sale route when Bale Inspector is trying to sink underneath it. Justice Hill had a big game. And so I do think the kind of the centerpiece and the foundation of the Ravens approach in the passing game, the last time these two teams played.
I don't know if you're going to be able to tap into that again with Milano and Bernard back on the field. And if you can't do that and you don't have Zay Flowers, are we going to get to a point? where the Ravens passing game on Sunday is maybe a little bit less dynamic than we've seen it be for a good majority of this season. There's part of me that agrees.
because obviously Bernard and Milano are better coverage players. At the same time, both of them have been injured for a lot of this season. I think Milano specifically is not playing at the level that we've seen him play at, where he's previously like a Pro Bowl level player.
Is he better than Bale Inspector? He's definitely better than Bale Inspector. I'm just trying to like it. It's not quite up to the level that I think when we just see Matt Mulatto on the depth chart. That's fair. That is very fair. And then also to me. When these two teams played really early in the season, Mark Andrews then?
is not what Mark Andrews is now. Like he had a pretty slow start to the season. And so I think actually getting him to ramp up a little bit more, I think they've actually found better ways to use Isaiah Likely. Maybe I'm just like too in the bag for Todd Monk in here, but I don't know. I still feel like they're going to be okay here. I don't disagree with anything that you're saying. I think all of it is like rooted in logic and sense.
But I can feel how bad you want this for Lamar. Oh, yeah. In your bones, I can feel it. That's not even an admonishment. It's just pouring out of you. I need it, man. Listen, the... There is no player I want like the Golden Road season for more than Lamar Jackson, where it's MVP into Super Bowl into Super Bowl MVP like there. For him to become bulletproof would solve so many of the online arguments I have that it would just be.
It would be wonderful. Two other things about this side of the ball that I want to bring up. One, I think the most important players, and this is spoiling my most supporting pieces, but I might as well just get out of the way now.
I think the most important run defenders on the Bills in this game are the edge players. If you go back and you watch the first matchup, whether it is some of those pinpole designs or some of the kickout blocks that are one-on-ones for Rosengarten and Ronnie Stanley, I think that Greg Rousseau... needs to make one or two splash plays against the run in this game. If you look at the numbers, where the Ravens really hurt them in week four was on the perimeter.
They were perimeter runs. So I think holding down the edge and kind of maintaining integrity at that spot on both sides is really, really important for Buffalo. And from a personnel level, we know that the Bills want to be a nickel. That's how they live. The Bills played nickel, according to NextGen, on 85.7% of two back snaps this year.
So even with Ricard on the field, that's probably how they want to play. And that – it's just a difficult way to live against the Ravens. So I think the Ravens having all those big bodies on the field and the Bills saying we'd rather maintain our – our ability to defend the past the way that we want to, it just puts you in a bad spot. It's a pick your poison sort of thing. The NFL average for nickel percentage or five DB percentage against two back sets this year was 35 and a half percent.
The Ravens are at 85 and a half, or excuse me, the Bills are at 85 and a half percent. See, and you can get, I think you can get away with that when it's a... 240-pound normal fullback when it's, you know, Alec Engle in the Dolphins and stuff. When it's a 300-pounder who's like a converted defensive tackle, it's a little bit trickier, man. All right, before we move on, let's take one more quick break. At Betfair, we're here for those who look at football differently.
Those who notice when the team of Galacticos, with a packed European and domestic schedule, might be about to underestimate the well-rested, well-drilled mid-table team. Build the bet you want with a completely free ACCA or bet builder on... Bye. Bye. Bye. get to the other side of the ball number one thing you are looking for when the bills have the ball in this game they i mean i say this a million times but like i really do think that this is going to come down to
how well the Ravens' interior can play against the Buffalo Bills' interior. Like, I think these are two... Both sides of the ball want to beat the bricks at you. Like the Ravens interior, some of their defensive linemen do an incredible job. Just imagine saying that about the Bills three years ago. Dude, right? Where they are this pure spread, one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Can't run. Josh Allen's running around for his life every single play. And now they are...
definitively one of the biggest bully ball teams in the league. I mean, it's them funny enough, the team they're playing against in the Baltimore Ravens and like the lions, like those are the definitive bully ball teams in the league. And so again, yeah, for the bills to be here is crazy. And actually that even. kind of goes to another point I want to make here about playing bully ball. We've talked about all year at different points.
and especially last week with the way they were using it against Denver, the Bills love putting six offensive linemen on the field. They bring Alec Anderson on and they do a bunch of funky stuff in the run game. Some of it, they'll even, they even had one play against Denver where they actually align him like a tight end and they run like... one back power with him motioning before the snap and it was just they they do some weird stuff with him but why that's interesting is
Buffalo's game where they used the fewest amount of six offensive lineman snaps this season was against the Ravens, because the Ravens on the other side of the ball were running up the score and running the...
the clock out. And so they just didn't feel comfortable doing the six offensive linemen stuff and using that as a tool. I think if they can tap into that a little bit more in this game, not let the Ravens run away with it on the other side of the ball, that's how they keep this game a little bit closer.
And I think the six off employment thing is important because of what it does to the defense. You can get them in base and potentially throw the ball. And the game I watched, the other game I watched other than the week four game from the Bills offense to prepare for this was the game they played against the Seahawks.
What did they do against Mike McDonald just from a structural level? First play of the game against Seattle, they come out with six offensive linemen and throw a shot off play action to Dawson Knox. So potentially getting...
the Ravens out of those five DB looks, getting Marlon Humphrey back outside and trying to throw the ball out of those looks. I think that is potentially a way to hunt out some explosives if you're Buffalo. I think that's probably a really good way to do it, especially with... The tight ends, because truthfully, I mean, what have we said the entire time of.
The last like eight weeks when the Ravens have really figured out what they want to do on defense. Part of it is that they've moved Kyle Hamilton back to safety. So maybe that actually does stop some of your tight end stuff. But really, the corners have just been playing better. Like Marlon Humphrey is playing better. Nate Wiggins has played really well when he's on the field.
And so I think trying to when you're the Bills and you don't have a true one on one winner on the outside, you win by smoke and mirrors and finding the right matchups and stuff. Your best way to do it might be let's threaten the run. Let's get six guys, six offensive linemen on the field. Let's try to target some of these linebackers and non-Kyle Hamilton safeties.
The other thing that they used a lot against Seattle, they did some of against Baltimore, and the Bills have used a lot of it all season, is just using empty to kind of clear things up for the quarterback. So I expect a lot of that. I would expect to see a lot of six offensive linemen in this game, and I'd expect to see a lot of...
of empty from the bills just to kind of be the ones dictating to a Ravens defense that plays a lot of different coverages starts from those two high shells and can get a little bit difficult to get a beat on over the course of a game I think that's What I want to say here, too, and maybe this is, again, me manifesting for Lamar. I talked a lot about early in the season how Roquan Smith was not playing, I think, his best football.
I actually think he's been a lot better over the second half of the season. And some of that I do think actually is moving Kyle Hamilton back. And he just feels more comfortable with the pacing of the coverage and the spacing of the coverage. And so I think having him help you out there.
in some of these empty formations is going to help. The problem is the other linebacker. I'm definitely worried about that part on Baltimore's part. But I do think if Roquan Smith can have a better game, even in the last time these two teams played, that would go a long way for them. The last thing I wanted to mention about the first matchup between these two that I think might be specific to an early season version of the Bills.
The Bills were abysmal against man coverage the first time these two teams played against each other. Josh Allen was 4 of 12 for 32 yards. And if you look at what they were trying to do against man...
the answers just didn't really seem to make a lot of sense. I don't know if the Ravens played more of it than they expected coming into the game because the Ravens have played more man coverage this year than they did last year with Mike McDonald. It has been sort of a change up. So three, four weeks in. of the season maybe there's a chance that you're not totally ready for how they want to play against you and the bills if you look at it they were
had some real issues against man early in the season against this team game against the Ravens. And then against the Texans, they were very bad from week seven through 18. Allen is fourth in the NFL in EPA per drop back against man coverage. So seeing some of those bunches, stacks, just the creative ways they're trying to create separation against those looks, I expect to see more of those this time around than we got in that week four game.
I hope so. And like you mentioned, they've done a much better job tapping into that. I think especially since they've gotten like, you know, when they got Cooper into the lineup and they started to figure him out, the more they've gotten all their guys together, it's made a little bit more sense. What I do find interesting about that is. It feels like all of Baltimore's worst moments, even when they've had this good stretch over the past two months, it's still when you can beat them downfield.
Obviously, Allen is really good at throwing down the field. I still don't know if I feel that confident about any of these guys down the field outside of... Maybe Keon Coleman can go dunk on a guy, which he's done a couple of times this year, but not actually as much lately. Like that was something he was doing a lot more early in the season. So that to me is definitely Amari Cooper's caught like.
A half dozen tight window throws down the field this year. Maybe I'm not giving you enough credit. That's mostly like a ball placement thing. Every single time they seem to hit one of those. Allen is dropping it over his shoulder 35 yards down the field. So having to rely on those, I think, might be a little bit tough. The last thing I want to say about this side of the ball, because I think it was really apparent the first time these two teams played. Allen was pressured on 44.
percent of his dropbacks this season there are three games where he's been pressured on more than 40 percent of his dropbacks per next gen they are the only three games where he had a negative epa per dropback I mean, it was this game, Houston, and... The Colts. Oh, yeah. He had some funny ones in that game.
So they hit 40% another game, but it was exactly 40. So I'm fudging this a little bit. More than 40%, the only three games where he had a negative EPA per drop back this year. And obviously, like... Quarterbacks are worse when they get pressure. But I think because it doesn't happen to the Bills at all, because they feel like such outlier games because their pass protection has been so good, in the games where it's not, you see a very different version.
of this offense. So the Bills' ability to hold up in pass protection, I think, becomes really important. And that's true for all teams, but we just don't really think about it that much with Buffalo because they're so consistently good at it.
And because he doesn't get sacked when he's pressured. And so obviously he'll still make some of these silly throws. And I guess that's what's happening in a lot of these games. But because he doesn't, usually you associate pressures and sacks and because he doesn't get sacked, you just don't think about it.
And the matchup that I want to talk about and the supporting piece that I think is worth mentioning here, I'm paying attention to, like, Osiris Torrance in this game. Because the first time around... They had Owe lined up over him a decent amount. They had Van Noe lined up over him and they'd have Matabike outside. So whether it's either trying to have like a speed rusher over a bigger body guard or sending some twists back at him, that would be.
They clearly thought this. The Ravens did. That would kind of be the player on that offensive line I was circling if I was trying to go after somebody. Young guy, big-bodied guy. It just felt like their best path. It's funny you say that. I actually was having a lot of thoughts about the left guard, David Edwards, and it's actually not because of him. If you watch the way that the Buffalo Bills put their offensive linemen, like when they go a line.
Deion Dawkins has the widest split in the league. And that is not me making it up anecdotally. That is literally true. According to NextGenStats, he is an on average 1.97 yards away from his guard. It is the highest number since 2016, according to NextGenStats, and the average for reference is 1.62 yards.
So he is a full foot further away from his guard than anybody else. Now, Deion Dawkins handles this incredibly well. They can get away with this because he's much lighter on his feet than anybody his size has any business being. But... it can put David Edwards into some, it allows more space on some of these two-way goes. Against some guys, maybe that's not a problem. Against Justin Matabike, or even some of them spiking like if it's an away insider stuff.
That can start to cause some problems. So that to me is definitely part of this matchup that I'm also keeping an eye on. Any other supporting piece that you wanted to mention before we get out of here? Just our Darius Washington. You know, I think if we're going to think about the Buffalo Bills, some of their best offensive skill players being what they want to do out of 12 personnel with Kincaid and Knox.
I think we trust Kyle Hamilton a pretty good amount, but we're going to need our Darius Washington, who is a smaller guy, to really step up against some of these big receiving threat tight ends. I'm pretty pumped. about this and very, very excited to watch this game. I cannot wait to settle in and get this one. And I'm looking forward to every matchup we have this weekend. It is the best football weekend of the year, and we will be here on Sunday nights.
recapping it live on YouTube. So if you want to come check that out, I would highly encourage you to do so. For now, that's all we got. Sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.