Mexico’s economy is shifting into a higher gear in 2023, thanks in part to stronger than expected investment from nearshoring. This July, we saw a historic moment as Mexico passed China to become the biggest exporter of goods to the United States, reclaiming that title for the first time in 20 years. What does this transformation mean in practice for Mexico's industrial hubs? Is the country taking full advantage of the nearshoring trend, or could it be doing more? What is the relevance of politi...
Sep 20, 2023•24 min
This month will mark the 50th anniversary of Augusto Pinochet’s coup in Chile. President Gabriel Boric has made the commemoration of that tragic chapter in Latin American history a major moment in his government, taking several initiatives to atone for the past, but the right is pushing back, at a moment when public opinion about the coup is changing. In 2005, an average of 24% thought that the military was right in carrying out the coup. In 2023, that number has risen to 36%. In the background ...
Sep 07, 2023•29 min
Recent scandals involving former President Jair Bolsonaro have left Brazil’s conservative movement in a state of flux. Meanwhile, the Lula administration is off to a relatively calm and successful start, with a 60% approval rating, the economy expected to grow more than predicted and inflation under control. What does that mean for the country’s politics going forward? In this episode, Brian Winter is joined by Fábio Zanini, editor of the “Painel” political column at Folha de S. Paulo , who has ...
Aug 31, 2023•34 min
This is a critical moment for Latin America’s economies, with analysts foreseeing better than expected GDP growth this year in countries like Brazil and Mexico. The outlook, however, is uneven. In Argentina, Peru and Chile, there are big questions about where economies are headed, largely because of politics. In today’s episode, an overview of what to expect in upcoming months — where the risks lie, where there might be reasons for optimism and how external factors, like China’s growing economic...
Aug 23, 2023•32 min
The radical libertarian economist Javier Milei placed first in Argentina’s primary election, upsetting the two-party system of the past 20 years. Milei describes climate change as a socialist lie, advocates for closing the central bank and chastises Argentina’s political class as a self-dealing 'caste'. Milei's success echoes that of recent outsiders on the right like Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, both of whom Milei has said he admires. In this episode, Brian Winter and political analyst and ...
Aug 16, 2023•27 min
Latin America is the world’s most vulnerable region to cyberattacks, according to one study, and has suffered several dramatic hacks recently in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and elsewhere. In this episode, Randy Pestana, Associate Director of Cyber Policy Program at Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy, Florida International University, tells the stories of some of the region's biggest attacks in recent years and explains why some countries are particularly vulnerable, who is responsible for ...
Jul 26, 2023•33 min
Bernardo Arévalo, an academic, former diplomat, and son of a famed revolutionary president surprisingly made it to Guatemala's election runoff, upsetting the country's ruling elites. What could happen next? Is his candidacy in jeopardy? Who makes up the group that Guatemalans refer to as the ' pacto de corruptos ' trying to undermine the nation's democracy? Is the U.S. using its influence to push for free and fair elections in Guatemala? In this conversation, former ambassador Stephen McFarland ...
Jul 20, 2023•31 min
Argentina's presidential elections will take place in October, but the country is now fully in campaign mode. In this episode, AQ 's Brian Winter and María Esperanza Casullo discuss surprising recent developments, such as the ruling coalition's decision to back Economy Minister Sergio Massa as their candidate, and the apparent decline in support for the right-wing libertarian Javier Milei. They dissect the chances for the main contestants, and whether any of them would be able to rescue Argentin...
Jul 13, 2023•33 min
In the 2010s, corruption investigations dominated news headlines in Latin America, from Lava Jato in Brazil to La Línea in Guatemala. Nowadays, prosecutors, activists and journalists across the region continue their work of holding powerful politicians and business leaders to account, but they face a more difficult environment. That's the conclusion of the fifth edition of the Capacity to Combat Corruption (CCC) Index, produced by the Americas Society/Council of the Americas and Control Risks. I...
Jul 06, 2023•29 min
It’s been a mixed bag so far for Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after six months back in office, with a better than expected economy, but a tough relationship with the conservative Congress. In this episode, Brian Winter and political analyst Thomas Traumann discuss why economists have increased their Brazil GDP growth forecasts since the year started, what to expect from economic policy moving forward and why, in Traumann's opinion, environmental policy will be the key battlegroun...
Jun 28, 2023•31 min
Global supply chains have become much more fluid in the past year, and some of this itinerant money is making its way to Latin America. Mexico has benefitted, but how have other countries, such as Colombia, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Brazil fared? In this episode, Shannon K. O'Neil, author of The Globalization Myth: Why Regions Matter , discusses Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s policies, what industries and countries hold most potential when it comes to trade and nearshoring, ...
Jun 22, 2023•29 min
The Colombian political world has been shaken by the eruption of a scandal that led the country's attorney general to launch an investigation into reports of alleged illegal financing of President Gustavo Petro's election campaign. In this episode, Laura Lizarazo, a senior analyst at Control Risks, evaluates the consequences of this to Petro's leadership and his proposed reforms to healthcare, labor laws and more. She also takes stock of changes to Colombia's energy sector, discusses the challen...
Jun 15, 2023•27 min
The race to replace President Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico is starting to heat up. While his party, Morena, is in good position to win, a competition has begun for who its candidate will be. In this episode, political scientist Carlos Bravo Regidor analyzes the stakes, the favorites, the state of the opposition and what it all mean for Latin America’s second-largest economy. He also discusses what he expects from AMLO, as the president in known, in his last 18 months in office.
Jun 09, 2023•27 min
It’s been two decades since China started to trade and invest heavily in Latin America, and in that time, the terms of the relationship have changed. There has been a move into clean energy and more long-term investments in infrastructure, including electrical grids. In this episode, Brian Winter and Rebecca Ray look at where the relationship is at and where it’s headed. They discuss Chinese and Latin American goals, what the latest numbers on trade and investment mean, as well as potential stum...
Jun 01, 2023•30 min
Migration in the Americas is not a new story, but it is evolving fast. Countries that used to be senders of migrants are now also becoming recipients – Chile, Peru, Colombia, Brazil. Traditionally Latin America has had mostly welcoming policies towards migrants, but there are signs that could change in some countries. In the episode, AQ 's Brian Winter speaks with Andrew Seele, President of the Migration Policy Institute, about migration trends and the countries where this has become a political...
May 25, 2023•30 min
From the outside looking in, it’s hard to understand what is happening in Venezuela these days. On the one hand Nicolás Maduro seems stronger than he’s been in years. The Venezuelan economy seems to have bottomed out, after years of terrible crisis. And the opposition is divided and struggling to connect with the Venezuelan people. On the other, the opposition and the Maduro government are back at the negotiating table and there is a sense that elections scheduled for 2024 might improve the poli...
May 18, 2023•28 min
Chile’s politics have been turned upside down once again, as an election last Sunday gave the political right almost full control over the writing of a new Constitution. A little more than a year ago, the country seemed to be undergoing a progressive transformation, after waves of protests, the arrival of a left-wing, young president, Gabriel Boric, and plans for what was supposed to be an expansive new Constitution. In this episode, political scientist Patricio Navia explains why the electorate...
May 11, 2023•30 min
What happens in Paraguayan politics matters not only to people who live there, but for the rest of the region and the world. It’s a member of Mercosur, at a time when that bloc’s future is in flux, and a key part of the rising strategic competition between the U.S. and China in the region — Paraguay remains one of a few nations who still recognize Taiwan. In recent elections, the country went against a regional wave of anti-incumbency sentiment by choosing a candidate of the ruling Colorado part...
May 04, 2023•23 min
The return of Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is a potential game-changer for Latin America. No other leader in the region is as experienced and has such a large global profile. Lula is in a position to lead on key issues such as climate, regional trade integration and the growing confrontation between the U.S. and China. However, the path to an influential international role is full of obstacles. In this episode, Brian Winter and Oliver Stuenkel discuss what to expect on foreign po...
Apr 26, 2023•32 min
In Guatemala, economic growth has done little to improve poverty and inequality. Violence continues to drive people to leave the country. Democracy is also in decline, as successive governments have undermined institutions, jailed journalists and forced independent prosecutors and judges into exile. In these conditions, one might expect candidates in upcoming presidential elections to stand for change. Yet the leading ones share similarities with the current president. What explains this? In thi...
Apr 19, 2023•30 min
El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele's hard-line security policies have contributed to a decline in homicides and extortion in El Salvador, but at a very high cost to human rights and democratic freedoms. Despite that, many in the region see this as a model to emulate and are vowing to implement similar policies. Is Bukelismo the wave of the future throughout the region? How should those who disagree with Bukele's strategy react and provide an antidote within the boundaries of the rule of law? Tamara Tara...
Apr 13, 2023•28 min
Argentina is approaching October elections with an annual inflation above 100%, poverty levels at around 40% and the possibility of tipping into recession again. However, the political class is mostly united in trying to avoid the worst, according to our guest, political risk consultant Juan Cruz Diaz. Juan also argues that there is a sense of opportunity for the medium term, as a gas pipeline comes online probably sometime this year and interesting energy projects move forward.
Apr 05, 2023•28 min
Latin America’s transition away from fossil fuels is well underway, with an average 60% of renewables in its power mix. If the region can continue down this road, and incorporate new technology in areas like green hydrogen, it can become a true leader in the global energy transition and unlock a new era of green jobs and economic growth. But there are barriers, and politics can get in the way. In this episode, we get an overview of the status of different countries in the energy transition and w...
Mar 29, 2023•29 min
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s third term as president of Brazil will soon reach its 100-day mark. The specters of Jair Bolsonaro’s constant attacks on institutions and the insurrection in Brasília on January 8 still loom. The economy is fragile. And there are disputes inside Lula’s party regarding how to address these and other issues. In this episode, we take a long view to try to understand Lula’s recent actions and what they mean for Brazil. Our guest is Celso Rocha de Barros, author of PT, uma...
Mar 22, 2023•30 min
At a moment when Nicolás Maduro commemorates 10 years in power in Venezuela, the opposition has agreed to participate in presidential elections in 2024, marking a change to their previous strategy of boycotting them. The United States has spent the past decade trying different measures to remove the Maduro dictatorship for office, most notably in 2019 recognizing opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the country’s interim president, a tactic that did not succeed. Now that the opposition is united, th...
Mar 16, 2023•31 min
Colombia's president, Gustavo Petro, is going through a rocky period in his administration. There have been challenges on the security front. The handling of a proposed healthcare reform has created fissures in his cabinet, most significantly the departure of Alejandro Gaviria, a minister for education, who represented the technocratic faction of the cabinet. In the meantime, Petro's family members are being accused of corruption. A slower economy and inflation of above 13% a year are not helpin...
Mar 09, 2023•25 min
More than 100,000 Mexicans protested last weekend against President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's proposed changes to the country's electoral institute. The marches highlight the leader's relative vulnerability, despite his enduring approval ratings above 60%. Indeed, while the path may seem open for AMLO, as the president is known, to overhaul the country's electoral institute and bring to power a candidate of his choosing in the 2024 elections, there are judicial and political obstacles to AML...
Mar 01, 2023•31 min
Organized crime has shaped people's lives in places like Mexico, Colombia and Brazil for decades. Recently, historically calmer places like Chile, Ecuador and even Uruguay have started seeing a rise in violence. What is driving this trend? In this episode, we do a broad overview of what's happening in transnational crime in the region and look at the individual dynamics in a number of countries. Our guest is Jeremy McDermott, one of the founders of InSight Crime, a think tank and publication tha...
Feb 23, 2023•30 min
Ecuador's conservative president Guillermo Lasso had his work cut out for him when he came into office in 2021. Elected partly because of a split in the Ecuadorean left, he had a weak mandate from the start. Last year, Lasso's government survived a major challenge from protests across the country. Now, another blow: voters defeated a referendum of constitutional amendments proposed by Lasso. Also, opposition candidates won municipal elections in key cities. Will Lasso finish his term? What does ...
Feb 15, 2023•26 min
In many ways, Uruguay is in a class of its own in Latin America. The country has the region's highest per capita income, its lowest poverty rate and among its lowest levels of inequality. Uruguay’s energy matrix is the region’s greenest and its economy is forecast to grow a healthy 3.6%. In a time of extreme polarization in Latin America and the rest of the world, its political culture is marked by civility. The new issue of Americas Quarterly is about Uruguay and what we can all learn from what...
Feb 09, 2023•32 min
