With the election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for a third term in Brazil, the international community expects the country to curb the aggressive deforestation and criminal activity seen in the Amazon in recent years. The path ahead will require astute political negotiations, argues this week's guest, Ilona Szabó, the founder of Instituto Igarapé, a think tank focused on security and development. Ilona talks to us about her expectations for Brazil's incoming government, prospects for cooperation...
Feb 03, 2023•27 min
Peru's crisis continues to rage, with protests almost daily on the streets of Lima. A long history of issues explains the current situation. Peru’s economic model brought growth and reduced poverty, but fell short of truly enfranchising the country’s most marginalized; the country’s political parties are considered by many to be dysfunctional. In this episode, Brian Winter and Luis Miguel Castilla, a former finance minister of Peru between 2011 and 2014, analyze what brought the country here and...
Jan 26, 2023•26 min
Following attacks on Brazil’s capital, the focus is on putting the country back together. The challenges are immense and wide-ranging: how to deal with security forces, parts of which supported insurrectionists, and how to handle Brazil’s growing radicalized groups, without overreacting and deepening division in an already polarized public. In this episode, Brian Winter and Patricia Campos Mello analyze the current political scenario, taking stock of the insurrection and looking ahead to what it...
Jan 19, 2023•32 min
U.S. President Joe Biden is in Mexico this week, at a time when the administration is facing a host of issues around Latin America. In this special episode, Brian Winter and the White House's Juan Gonzalez discuss a number of them: disputes with the Mexican government over energy policy; changes in the Venezuelan opposition; new developments in the relationship with Cuba; expectations for Brazil's incoming government and what, if anything, defines Biden's approach to Latin America today.
Jan 09, 2023•1 hr 2 min
In the last two decades, China has been a fundamental part of Latin America's economies. But the relationship is far from static. In today’s episode, we’ll look at how trade and investment flows changed in recent years and explore Beijing’s goals in the region. Our guest, Felipe Larraín, is a former two-time finance minister of Chile and a professor of economics at Universidad Católica de Chile. He evaluates recent trends and future trajectories for direct investment, official lending, trade and...
Jan 05, 2023•30 min
After over 30 years, Argentines can finally say, once again, that they are the world's football champions. The victory brought millions to the streets in celebration, at a time when the country is going through economic and political troubles. What does it feel like to be there this week? What consequences, if any, could this have for the economy and for politics? Will the atmosphere of national unity witnessed in recent days soothe tensions in a highly polarized society? In this episode, Argent...
Dec 19, 2022•20 min
In this episode, Brian Winter and Alberto Ramos, head of Latin America economic research at Goldman Sachs, assess the state of the region's economies as we head into 2023. Why were numbers for 2022 better than expected, and why didn’t it feel that way for many? What should governments do to avoid headwinds in 2023? How might external factors, such as the war in Ukraine, economic activity in China and U.S. interest rates impact Latin American finances? Hear Ramos’ expectations for Latin America a...
Dec 15, 2022•30 min
It’s been a difficult decade for much of Latin America, but there are also some causes for optimism. As 2022 draws to a close, Moisés Naím, one of the region’s most respected and followed political commentators, provides an overview of where things stand. In a conversation with Brian Winter, Naím discusses the struggles of democracy, as well as recent developments in Venezuela, his home country. Naím is the author of the book The Revenge of Power , which chronicles the rise of autocratic leaders...
Dec 08, 2022•27 min
Recent protests have illuminated a political divide in Mexico. First, thousands took to the streets to protest against President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's plan to overhaul the country's elections authority, the INE, or Instituto Nacional Electoral. Two weeks later, AMLO himself called a march to celebrate his four years in office, a move read by many as an attempt to showcase political strength. Why are some critics calling this a "make-or-break" moment for Mexican democracy? In this episode...
Nov 30, 2022•31 min
Memories of the December 2001 protests in Argentina arise whenever the country's social, economic and political crises deepen. Now, conditions are ripe for restlessness: inflation is nearing 100%, there are protests in the streets and the political scenario is convoluted. Could Argentina be close to another moment of social upheaval, similar to what happened in December 2001? In this episode, Brian Winter discusses popular discontent, the 2023 elections and Argentine foreign relations with Benja...
Nov 16, 2022•33 min
The election in Brazil is over, but the country remains divided and there are considerable challenges ahead for President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. In this episode, Brian Winter speaks with political reporter and columnist for O Globo newspaper Malu Gaspar about how a possible institutional rupture was averted, what Lula's priorities will be and what he will face while trying to reunite Brazil's political class and address the country's economic, social and environmental problems....
Nov 10, 2022•24 min
Millennials account for 23% of Latin America’s population, or roughly 155 million people. Two of them are already at the helm of their countries, Gabriel Boric in Chile and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador. They represent starkly different political projects - the latter more authoritarian, the former, democratic. Which vision is more likely to prevail in the coming years? How is this generation changing politics in the region? In this episode, Andrea Moncada, a millennial Peruvian journalist and the...
Nov 03, 2022•27 min
The spread of evangelical Christianity is changing politics in Brazil, Peru, Chile, Bolivia and elsewhere in Latin America. In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast , we do an examination of how far this has gone in a number of countries, from Brazil to Guatemala, and what it means for future elections in the region. Our guest, Professor Taylor Boas, is the author of Evangelicals and Electoral Politics in Latin America: A Kingdom of This World , which is expected to be published in Febr...
Oct 27, 2022•33 min
The backsliding of democracy is a reality in many parts of the world, and Central America has been no exception. Nicaragua is under an authoritarian regime. El Salvador’s President has announced he will run for reelection despite his country’s constitution forbidding it. And even in Costa Rica, once seen as a bastion of stability, there have been worrying signs. What is pushing this trend in the region, and what are the efforts to reverse it? In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast , B...
Oct 20, 2022•31 min
Cuba is facing a mixture of short-term and long-term problems. Hurricane Ian has devastated the island. This came amid a long period of setbacks, including a deep economic contraction and a severe migration crisis. In recent weeks, Cubans have taken to the streets. Is the country headed for even greater instability? How, if at all, could the relationship with the United States change? And is there an existential risk to the Cuban government itself? In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podca...
Oct 13, 2022•30 min
Brazil's election results were much tighter than many predicted and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and President Jair Bolsonaro are headed to a runoff on October 30. Although Lula is still a slight favorite, Bolsonaro has received key endorsements and bolsonarismo showed its strength, winning majorities in the House and the Senate as well as key governorships. In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, Brian Winter speaks to Sarah Maslin, Brazil correspondent for The Economis...
Oct 05, 2022•26 min
Colombian President Gustavo Petro was elected promising huge reforms. But since taking office, he has given mixed signals regarding how far, and how fast, his government might change Colombia’s economy, society and role in the world. Will the country’s class structure be significantly altered? Will there be a shift in drug policy? Will Colombia drop oil and coal from its energy matrix? And how much support do his proposals have? In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, Ricardo Ávila, s...
Sep 28, 2022•30 min
As the dust begins to settle on Chileans’ emphatic rejection of their proposed new constitution, the political class has started negotiations for a new process. What provisions is the new charter likely to contain? Who might write it? Where does the rejection leave the young leftist president Gabriel Boric, and what will happen to Chile’s troubled economy amid such uncertainty? Isabel Aninat, Dean of the Faculty of Law at Adolfo Ibáñez University, answers these and other questions on this episod...
Sep 14, 2022•28 min
Brazil’s election is now entering its final stage, and President Jair Bolsonaro is consistently trailing former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. If the trend prevails, will Bolsonaro concede? Many in Brazil think he will not. In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, veteran political analyst Thomas Traumman examines the final weeks of the campaign and what could happen next. He discusses the latest poll numbers, Bolsonaro's narrowing options for victory, the crucial roles of gender...
Sep 01, 2022•29 min
There is an unmistakable trend in Latin American politics today: the left is in charge in some of the region’s largest countries — Chile, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia and Mexico. Brazil, the biggest economy, could soon join this cohort if former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the October election. This in many ways recalls the original pink tide of the 2000s. In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, international relations expert Oliver Stuenkel discusses what he expects from...
Aug 18, 2022•29 min
It has surprised many that there have been more disagreements between the US and Mexico under a Democratic presidency than under a Republican one. What explains this? Is the relationship, so critical to both countries, at risk of a genuine deterioration? What can we expect from Andrés Manuel López Obrador as he tries to navigate a weakened economy, rising violence and the upcoming 2024 elections? Professor, political analyst, writer and activist Denise Dresser takes on these and others questions...
Aug 04, 2022•34 min
Colombia’s Gustavo Petro will take office on August 7 with a lot on his plate. The country’s first ever leftist president has promised substantial reforms to Colombia’s economy and society. Polls show Colombians are optimistic and expectations are high. How much will it be possible to achieve? How pragmatic will a Petro government be and what are his odds of success? In this episode of the Americas Quarterly podcast, journalist Mariana Palau discusses the incoming government’s situation in Congr...
Jul 21, 2022•29 min
The surprise resignation of Argentina’s economy minister has raised concerns of an even deeper political and economic crisis. Where is the country headed? In this episode of the Americas Quarterly Podcast, María Esperanza Casullo, a political scientist and professor at the National University of Río Negro, explores what is behind the resignation, what can be expected from the new minister and from next year's presidential election, as well as why Argentina is not ripe for “outsider” candidates l...
Jul 07, 2022•33 min
Across Latin America, talk is turning to the possibility of a global recession. How vulnerable is the region, and which countries might do better than others? In this AQ Podcast, Ernesto Revilla, head of Latin America economics at Citigroup, gives us an overview of the region’s economies, challenges like inflation and rising interest rates, and what the impact might be on politics, especially in countries with new governments like Colombia, Chile and Peru.
Jun 23, 2022•36 min
Colombia’s June 19 runoff between two strongly anti-establishment candidates tells us a lot about what’s happening in today’s Latin America, says Luis Alberto Moreno, a veteran observer of the region’s politics and former president of the Inter-American Development Bank. In this conversation, Moreno takes a long view of political developments, analyzing recent progress and setbacks. He discusses populism, inequality, economic growth and challenges to cooperation and trade between Latin American ...
Jun 09, 2022•31 min
A modest degree of change appears to be underway in Venezuela. There are signs that a years-long economic crisis may finally have bottomed out. And the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro looks set to return to negotiations with opposition leaders after calling off talks last October. How much if any hope should these developments generate for a potential political and economic opening? What do they mean for Venezuela's relationships with the U.S. and other international actors? And what's the long g...
May 26, 2022•32 min
In the past year Haiti has lived through the assassination of a president, multiple natural disasters and an exodus of people. Now, a simmering political crisis has put pressure on the country's leadership and raised questions about how it will chart a path toward new elections. What role should the international community play in helping Haiti find a way forward? What are the limitations of U.S. involvement? Monique Clesca, a journalist and member of the Commission to Search for a Haitian Solut...
May 12, 2022•24 min
Despite a host of challenges, Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro appears to be in a stronger position to win re-election in October than many expected. Though still trailing in polls to former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Bolsonaro has started to close the gap in recent weeks. What's behind this shift, and how might Lula respond as the campaign progresses? Joining the AQ podcast is Fábio Zanini, a columnist at Folha de S. Paulo who has spent years covering the conservative movement that b...
Apr 28, 2022•33 min
It's shaping up as another difficult year in Latin America for freedom of the press, judicial independence and separation of powers. From El Salvador to Peru to Mexico and beyond, fundamental rights are under pressure. What's behind the backsliding, and what can be done to push the region's democracies in the right direction? Tamara Taraciuk Broner, acting Americas director at Human Rights Watch, joins the AQ podcast for a tour of trouble spots around the region.
Apr 14, 2022•35 min
Gustavo Petro is polling well in the run-up to Colombia's first-round presidential election on May 29. But recent events suggest the former mayor of Bogotá might struggle to bring more moderate voters to his side. What concessions is he willing to make to build bridges to the center and center-left? And which of his competitors is best positioned to close the gap in the weeks ahead? Joining the AQ podcast this week to offer an unvarnished look at the race and how the frontrunners might govern is...
Mar 31, 2022•28 min
