Welcome to another episode of Strictly Business, the podcast in which we speak with some of the brightest minds working in the media business today. I'm Andrew Wallenstein with Variety. It was ten years ago that grand View Management was formed to focus on a client list of high end writers and producers. Since then, the biz has been through a lot, to say the least, and the current day and age is no exception, as the TV business in particular navigates what you might call the post peak TV era.
To help illuminate the road ahead for the industry, I've enlisted grand View principles Matt Rosen and Jeff Silver. We'll talk with them in just a moment. And we're back with Matt Rosen and Jeff Silver of the management team Grandview, and they've got a client list filled with writers and producers of hit movies and TV shows like House of the Dragon, Ozark Loki. Thanks for being with me today, guys.
Thanks so much for having us. Hey, Ed, thanks for having us.
So set the scene for me, if you will. As we speak here in late February in Los Angeles. We've gotten past the strikes. The streaming wars are a blaze, but you've been in the business quite a while on the chaos to calm spectrum here in Hollywood? Where do things sit right now? Matt? Why don't you start us off?
Well, where do you thinks that right now?
You know, coming out of the strike, I think there's a lot of people who are concerned looking at where peak TV is going. There's been many indications that it is going down, and that the many the amount of shows that were being made in the five to six hundred rage are going to be cut almost in half.
And at the same time, the movie business is trying to figure out ways to get back to a better box office from the year's past, and so there were people concerned out there that all said, I think from our viewpoint, we're pretty optimistic about the opportunities for our clients in this changing landscape and feel very fortunate to represent some extremely talented people in writers and directors and so on, and feel that the opportunity is ripe for
them to continue to be able to produce content at the highest level.
All right, So, you know, right off the bat, though, I would think the simplistic take would be, now, wait a second, you just did some scary math because less product to be made means less opportunity for your clients. So you know why, you know, Jeff, why be optimistic?
Well, listen, we were both in the business in two thousand and seven, two thousand and eight, right, Matt and I started as assistants together at CIA. We met each other my first day his third week. And you know, two thousand and six felt like a great time, and suddenly you had a strike and then you had a financial meltdown. And we were lucky enough at that moment to be young in the business. Matt was on aging track at CIA and I was working as an executive.
But we really felt it right.
We felt the business screeched to a halt, and then we felt this existential crisis in two thousand and eight of what's going to happen. I remember going up for a job at Paramount to be a CE in two thousand and nine, and I was one of three hundred qualified candidates for that job. So to your point, Andrew, right,
less opportunity is really scary. That said, we're in a business of entrepreneurs and we're in a business of creatives, and if you use those two together, you get storytellers of the highest level who figure out a way to get their stories told. So we're maybe uniquely confident in the ability of our clients to get their stories out there in the right way. So they're going to be less when writing assignments. We've seen that there's going to
be less slots. But three months ago, I think people were looking at FX and Hulu and saying are they going to be bringing in new development? And right now, you know, you've just had John Langraf, who we have a ton of respect for in business with talk about wanting new shows. Our friends at Hulu now want new shows, so we're starting to see a rebound already. It's always a scary moment when when you know supply and demand
get get a little bit screwed up. But if you're the kind of artists who just waits for books to come in your way or assignments to come in your way.
Yeah it's time to rethink how you do things.
But if you're the kind of artist that has a vision and has stories to tell, then we think you're as well suited now as you were before.
Okay, so I guess when you've got clients, like to name a few of your people, you know, Ryan Condall who is the showrunner on House of the Dragon. And you've got Chris Mundy who is coming off of Ozark. You've got some great names and they're going to get jobs. What about the I guess what I'm saying is for the rest of the marketplace. If you don't have the best names, what do you do or or you know, should the broader marketplace? Is this going to be a
troubling time? Is it only the cream of the crop that's going to survive?
I don't Yeah, I'm happy to jump in. I mean, I don't think it's just the cream of the crop.
I'm Matt.
Yeah, sorry, this is Jeff. Matt and I have talked about this a lot. We don't think it's just the cream of the crop. We think if you have an intrepid idea and you've got a career that and you've got a reputation and you know how to work well with others, and you've proven yourself in people are going to listen, want to listen to your idea and want to say does this fit on our era? This is
something that we can do. And if you're young, coming up in the business with nothing to lose and only a dream, right then you're saying, great, I just graduated from this playwrights program where I've got this one pilot.
I'm not that expensive. Come in and take me seriously.
Where where you always see attrition in these moments, I think is in the middle. Right, So for those folks writers, filmmakers, actors, producers, anybody in media who's sort of been resting on their laurels for a bit and waiting for it to come to them, it gets a little bit harder. But if you're ready to play offense with your ideas, we think it doesn't matter what level.
You're at, Matt, how else would you characterize this marketplace? How does it change now?
Look, I think what you're going to start seeing I hit it a little bit before, but you're going to be seeing less shows, but you're going to be seeing more eyeballs on those shows, and that is going to lead to more cultural moments for us as a commun unity. Right, everyone is going to be joining and watching the same types of shows, similar to maybe the way it was back in you know, in the days before there was just so much television. Now now there's so much opportunity
to look at so many different things. You don't know what option to pick, and it's going to bring people together in a really cool way and being able to watch things in a way that you get back into the office on Monday and everyone sit around the water cooler and be having conversations about watching the same thing.
Finally, again, I'm going to push back on that. I feel like, you know, you mentioned earlier that you think that we could see maybe half of the volume of shows. But I think the estimates I've seen are it's going to come down a good amount. I don't know about half, and we still got a lot of streaming services out there. I think it's not necessarily going to be that much
less fragmented a world. So do you really think we're going to go back to the days where you know, a Game of Thrones is going to have you know, thirty million viewers coming to a finale. Do you really think it's going to be that dramatic a difference.
I don't think it's going to get back to you know, the eighties or the nineties, you know, when it was when it was just network TV, really, but I think you're going to have more touch points for people because there's going to be less options there's there's going to be amazing shows out there.
To Jeff's point, I think I think he makes a really good point.
You know, people are going to rise to the top with their fantastic ideas, and as long as you're playing offense, you're going to be having really good content out there and you're gonna be able to get your shows on the air. I do feel that there will be some change in the market in the amount of shows that we're seeing out there.
It's also Andrew, It's it's up to it's up to all of us in the business to find and nurture storytellers and find nurture ideas that have stories that cut through, right. I mean, it's not thirty million a year, but you look at shows like Yellowstone, right, they're bringing.
In big numbers.
And then shows that you know Beef, which you know it's Sonny Lee wrote and came up with an amazing idea from his life, and our partner Ben works with Sonny and we're fortunate enough a grand of you to work with most of the writers and directors on.
Beef like that.
We don't have the exact data from Netflix on that, but that show really cut through in a massive way and was a big success for them critically and commercially. So it might it might to match point, it might not be what it was twenty years ago with thirty million, but buyers are still going to want eyeballs, and advertisers as we head towards this place in streaming where there's more advertising, are going to want as many eyeballs as
they can get. That those fundamentals of the business are not going to change.
Jeff, you mentioned data. Let's let's go on a bit of a tangent there. How do you as a management company deal in this asymmetrical.
World of.
Data where you're got streaming services that have, you know, armloads of data and sure, you know, every once in a while Netflix comes along and you know, throws a whole bunch of data out there and says, see no, we share plenty. But by and large it feels like representatives like yourselves seem to be operating at a big disadvantage.
Well, it depends, right again, everything goes in cycles.
So in the beginning of Netflix and making is so much content, we had many filmmakers and showrunners who wanted to go there because they felt that they were great creative partners and the money was really good.
Right.
Those deals were very very significant early on through a couple of years ago. Those deals were very top of market, and the executives at Netflix were excellent saying to the.
Creatives, we're here to make your shows. That's what we're here for.
Obviously, there's now been a trend where people have been asking to see more data, and as deals are coming down a little bit in terms of financials.
And length and general comm yeah, that has become an issue.
So we're glad we're getting some of the data. Ultimately, what our role is with an artist is to help them architect a strategy to get them what they want in their career. Right, So for us, it's about picking who are the people that are going to help them put the best show on the air, Who are the people that can help them make the best deal around that show, who are the best collaborators, and how do
we build something really long lasting. So data matters when you get granular on deal making, there's no question about that. But when it comes to how do I create something I'm really proud of and go Molly's as an example, Molly Smith Messler, who we've looked after for a long time, had an incredible first show called May. It was the first time she developed, and she developed with Lucky Chap and John Wells and made that show at Netflix and
it was nominated for a bunch of awards. And Molly now has just gotten Sirens Green Lid, which Variety broke a few days ago. It's the second show she's ever developed, so she's two for two on development. But for us, it was Molly's in a deal with Netflix that is a fantastic deal. We teamed her back up with Lucky Chat because she felt so comfortable with them. We made sure that the material was great, and we made sure that she and Ginny Howe, who's a tremendous executive at Netflix,
were in sync together. And now they're going to go tell another amazing story and I'm so excited for everyone to be able to see that story at some point next year. So again, the data matters, but for getting artists where they want to be, it's not everything.
It's one thing.
Okay, speaking of the financials, Matt, what's it like nowadays when you're talking to your clients about what the writers or producers of Yesteryear could hope to make from being a runner versus today given the clout that you know, the streaming services have given, the way you know, back end deals or the lack thereof are structured. Is it is it just not as lucrative as it used to be.
I think it can still be a very lucrative business. The pie might have gotten a little bit smaller right
as you turned analog dollars into digital sense. But you know, as long as you are talented and as long as you are able to be on the offense and go sell products or sell your project in a competitive landscape, which is what we really try to do with all of our clients is to make sure that there's a competitive situation and that is more important than ever to help make sure that our clients can be making a good, fair deal that is you know, going to be super
beneficial to them. And you know, to your question on the back end, look, obviously the data has helped us and you know, Netflix is transparency especially has helped us in helping our clients along with their lawyers and agents, make better deals for them. And the landscape is going to continue to change over the next you know, as everything gets reset over the next twelve to eighteen months,
let's say. But as long as there is a competitive market and as long as there are stories that the buyers want, which we feel very fortunate to represent people that are in those positions, we're seeing we're not seeing a major downward trend in what our clients are making.
I think that's that's really well said, and you're just a double underline what Matt said about competitive when you're working with an artist, which really you hope for lots of things. You hope for process wins. You hope that they are really happy with the stories they've told. You hope that they feel like the placement of those stories has really worked. But in the inception of those stories,
you want multiple people getting excited about them. So we're out with something right now that we haven't reported on yet where we've got several studios bidding on a piece for two clients of ours, a show runner and producer around a company that we're building right now. And we started this conversation and we had four different studios bidding
on it and number down to two. This was just an article and a writer with an idea, but it's something that really resonates and cut through and the deal that we're making is incredibly cutting edge, is incredibly elegant, but they're going to walk away with a chance to do very, very very well, and if they hit it out of the park, they potentially will make more money on this show than they would have if they'd set
this up several years ago. So the ways that we're making deals are evolving, but you need to have an idea or a package that multiple buyers want so.
That you can really get under the hood and make an aggressive deal for your clients.
The one off open writing assignment at a studio or network. You're absolutely right, those those numbers are going down a bit, so we're trying to get all of our storytellers and artists to play offense.
We'll be back in just a moment with more with Matt Rosen and Jeff Silver, and we are back with
the principles at Grand View Management. Matt Rosen and Jeff Silver, Guys, I guess I'm surprised to hear that we're not hearing the people that you are negotiating with plead poverty more often, because I would assume after you know the strikes and after you know the streaming services, you know, meaning more into needing to demonstrate profitability, that they'd be all tapped out, they'd be, you know, not being able to spend top dollars anymore. But I feel like that's not what I'm hearing.
So what's going on? I mean, just to jump in this is Matt.
I feel like we, Jeff and I have found ourselves in a very fortunate position.
We started this company ten years ago.
You know, we were best friends coming up and meeting at the agency and we were able to hone in and just learn a lot over the years before we started the company. And what we feel very blessed about is that having built this company based on a culture.
Excuse me, that culture is our strategy, and being able to bring in artists and have them help or helping them create ideas, pitches, and then help them create a market out there with packaging that with our agency partners, we've been able to stay above the fray when it comes to you know, the the quote unquote economic downturn, which you know people are crying poverty onto your what you just said, Andrew, we feel very forciate to represent people who are at the top of their game and
whether that is a showrunner on a massive hit TV show, or you know someone that we just discovered, you know, out of the UK, or or you know, right out of grad school. We like to consider ourselves the best in the game when it comes to identifying talent and making sure that talent is ultra successful in the marketplace.
Now are we going to see though? You know, it's see I remember there was a time, maybe it was always this time, and I'm just forgetting, but like you know, networks would seize on a talent. I think of like you know, sort of like the Chuck Loriy model, where it's like they find the talent and then that talent in a matter of years will go from one project to two projects to nine projects, you know where they
are just they become an empire onto themselves. Are we going to see those type of people rise up rather quickly? Is that next generation? Do you think going to emerge soon enough?
It's a great question. It's a great question. I mean, listen,
I think you could. One of the things that you might be able to say about peak TV is that there were too many shows, and in those too many shows that maybe were too many showrunners, and some of those shows really buckled under the weight of expectations, financial or otherwise because the shows weren't a certain level of quality, right, And I think that's that's something that people were experiencing during peak TV, this sort of fatigue around are the shows great?
So?
Will there be more? Chuck Lori's more, Ryan m more, Shonda's absolutely. Will it be a meritocracy? We think so, will you just be given a show because so many networks have so many hours that they're now needing to fill. No, it's going to be harder as always. The great people with great motivation and great talent and great character and great ambition will be that new class for sure. It's
just going to be a little bit tougher. And that's maybe okay for a minute, so that we can find the quality that we need to to keep cutting through a marketplace where people are looking at things on second screen and have lots of different opportunities to do. Like, we're traditionalists in the sense that we want people watching great shows, we want people going to great films. So the answer your question, Andrew, yes, there will still be
those people. But we think that the people who get to those lofty heights there'll be less of a chance. But if you have that combination of skill and motivation and character, you can get there.
And I remember people like Bill Lawrence Scrubbs, executive producer a lot of great shows as well, voice and concerns during the strike that the next generation of producers were not going to be able to be trained and brought up in a system that was going.
To groom them to.
Really be ready to take on being able to show run. Do you think we're coming out of the strike with a system that is going to equip them to do that? Do you worry that for your clients who might fit needing that grooming, that they're going to be ready to take that mantle?
That is as a great question, Andrew, The answer is yes, we do think they're to be ready. And just to further your point, you know, I think a lot of the concerns coming out of some of these older showrunners was is that you're cutting down from twenty two episodes.
Of network to ten episodes of.
Premium, you know, streaming, and it was just giving people less experience, and that people writers were moving too quickly through the ranks and going from a staff writer to a co executive producer in a matter of a couple of years where it used to take you know, ten plus years. What has happened is that there is now a new subset of non writing executive producers that are
you know, helping these you know, potentially younger showrunners. And we are very instrumental with our clients in helping select them and make sure that there is someone helping them, especially on their first shows.
These shows are big shows.
You know, you're a writer and you're coming in and all of a sudden you're being asked to run, you know, essentially a company for that's you know, costs tens of millions of dollars and run hundreds of people and be the CEO of that company. That's that's not something that someone can do by themselves, and it is a team oriented job. In the same way that what Jeff and I do as a team oriented representation. You know, everyone
at this company helps each other's clients. We make sure that we were helping each other and we're communicating, making sure that there's transparency and everything so that we can help our clients rise.
And in the same.
Way with our showrunners, they need that help and they need partners which we help them find to make sure that they're going to be successful.
I think that's so well said.
The only other thing I'd add to that, Andrew, is going back to your previous question, Like the Shonda's, the Chucks and the Ryans and the sort of you know, real aspirational heavyweights there got there by identifying who their people are and by being mentors ands. So I think a lot of what our job is is to figure out Sometimes you've got an artist who.
Just wants to tell a story.
They just want to tell a story, and they want to tell that story to the fullest, and they don't want to think about touching anything else while they're telling that story and go from the ideas in my head. So I'm accepting an Emmy on stage, and that's great. We love those people and they're wonderful, but they also know that they are more one project to one project, and that's totally okay. That's part of their artictic expression. There's some who say, you know what, I want to
juggle multiple things at once. It will make all these things better and I will feel satiated in different ways. And if we can help those people find their people, find their younger writers who are going to be their showrunners, find their non writing EPs they want to partner with. Maybe find a non writing EP they want to start a company with. So that you've got a tremendous showrunner and a non writing EP together with the same mission, which is how do we lift other people.
Up and tell their stories?
So we always r on guard for bad mentorship. There's nothing worse than putting a great idea with a bad producer. It's absolutely brutal. It slows everything down and you're fighting up against the tide the entire way. So if you, if you collaborate in the right way, the mentorship park gets taken care of.
So now I want you to look across the negotiation table and size up the field of buyers out there. It's a it's a long list. I think it's almost surprising here we are in February twenty twenty four and the list is that long. The speculation of cross, of course, is that that list is going to winnow any day. But we've been saying that for a long time too. What do you what do you think is going to happen? And I'm not even just saying, you know, is it
going to WINNO? Is it going to not but when you when you look at the list of buyers, what do you see right now in terms of the market? Is this a is this a discerning list? Do you feel like you have a clear sense of what buyers want even? Do they have distinct identities, distinct set of needs?
What do you think?
Well, Andrew, I'm so curious to hear your thoughts on this because you've been reporting on this and looking at this for a long time. To your point, we've all been sort of looking at the guillotine about to come down on all these different networks. What have you seen and heard in your travels? How come you don't think that's happened yet.
Well, my skeptical take is that obviously all eyes are on Paramount right now, and my feeling is that it's not going to happen anytime soon, and that there's probably regulatory issues that are at play here, and that maybe this is not going to be so easily done, and that perhaps maybe this is something like they need to figure out who's going to be in the White House by the end of the year first, that maybe you know, there could be a whole host of reasons and that
this isn't maybe necessarily as simple as just paramount. And so again, though my question really isn't just about like, oh, there'll be one less buyer out there. I'm really more curious about, like, you know, there was a time where it just seemed like all these guys were just sort of like gobbling up product indiscriminately. Now it even feels like everyone's just focused on sports. So I guess I'm just trying to get a sense of you know, how you see it.
All you can ask from your creed, all you can ask from your strategic partners at buyers is for honesty and transparency. Right as managers, agents, lawyer, producers, as people in the creative process and in this arena, all we can ask from the folks who are running these places are tell us what you can do, tell us what you can't do, tell us what you will do, tell us what you won't do, and then let us help get the right.
Ideas with the right people to you.
So, the folks who are greenlighting these shows, for the most part, are not the ones who are making the bigger M and A decisions. Those decisions are coming down from a different level. Right for us, all we need are for the people who are actually green lighting shows or not green lighting shows, to be able to be real and honest with us, so we can be real and honest with the people that we work with so
that we can deliver them something. Or if they're in a place where they can't buy anything for six weeks, we say, great, we'll talk to you in six weeks. If that changes, let us know, just so we can have an active picture of what the market is. I'd say, Matt, I'm curious to hear what you would say. I think right now what we're getting from all the buyers is bring us specific things in specific buckets because we're open.
Yeah, I think that.
Look, this entire business, you know, is cyclical like every other business, and we're in the middle of a down cycle. But that does not mean that content stops being bought and made. And to just point, as long as we have solid partners on the buying side that are letting us know what they're looking for, and sometimes they don't know all the answers because you know, upstairs in whatever C suite of corporate they're they're trying to figure out how to you know, get the right answers and looking
at data and all this stuff. That honestly, at the end of the day, may or may not matter. What matters is that we represent people who come up with unique and unique and different ideas than what is currently in the market, and that excites the buyers and we feel really fortunate about it, you know, we you know, are able to kind of change the tide when when
things maybe in a downturn. Right before the strike, you know, we went out with a pitch that was you know, as everyone was shutting down, you know, we went out with a pitch on a fascinating idea from this writer of the UK and there was a five way bidding war on it because it was just different and unique and it was this really cool comedy and everyone had never no one had ever seen it before.
And that's why we feel really fortunate.
And to your point your question, or ganew, we do feel optimistic because we're seeing the results.
Last question. Here we are again in late February. There used to be a time where there was this very you know, clear calendar, clear rhythms to the TV market. What sense though, do you have now in this you know world where you know, the traditional fall schedule is
probably gone for good. You know, as you look to March, you know, and beyond, how do you sort of get your bearings and what do you expect, you know, the spring to bring in terms of development and how whether it's linear networks or streaming, do you what do you expect lies ahead?
I think we anticipate it to be year round. We anticipate, you know, the market to be opened all the time and for people to be wanting to purchase non stop.
And the days to your point of upfronts in May and finding out you know, what was going to be on the schedule for that fall, those you know, still exists to a certain extent, but those days are over and it is a twenty four to seven game, and you know, our clients are you know, advised and always moving with us in the mentality that we're creating a market every day because we're coming up with our clients and helping them develop quality content that they're going to
be able to sell to multiple buyers.
And by the way, some of the buyers may not be buying.
To just point at one moment or another, but there is always a market for content, especially if it is new and cutting edge and different and innovative.
And there might be there might be an opportunity for broadcast network at this moment. I mean, I think everyone has been so focused on streamers and the growth of streamers and spot and what's happening there, and I think broadcast television has maybe gotten a little bit lost in
the shuffle there. So I think our eyes are on the broadcasters to say, you know, what are you guys going to do, and can you make content that does cut through in a real way, and if so, maybe we go back to that, to that calendar in some way.
I just to add on to that because it's a really interesting point. But Jeff brought up, but you're also seeing a lot of the streamers now trying to create their own network plus content, if you will. And so you're seeing you're starting to see the migration of some of the network players that usually in the writing space would be working, you know, at one of the big three networks actually migrating to the streaming platforms.
Well, I can't think of a more hopeful note to end on than hope for the broadcast networks. But thank you both for your time, good luck pitching for the rest of this season.
Thank you Andrew, thanks for listening.
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