New policies are redefining the relationship between the federal government and higher education, curbing spending on research and threatening the revenue streams from endowments and international student tuition. Colleges and universities are looking for short-term fixes while developing longer-term plans to cut services or raise tuition fees. In this episode, we talk with David Jesse, Senior Writer at the Chronicle of Higher Education, about the federal government’s role in the financing of hi...
Jul 25, 2025•35 min•Season 1Ep. 56
Chair Powell and the FOMC are facing heightened pressure to cut rates and account for cost overruns associated with renovations to the Fed’s headquarters. President Trump’s vocal desire to remove Powell has prompted investor concerns that monetary policy will be influenced by short-run political incentives rather than longer-run economic outcomes. In this special edition of Simply Put, we talk with Carola Binder, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Texas, about the disinflation...
Jul 21, 2025•20 min•Season 1Ep. 55
This year’s big fiscal package, officially titled the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), extends the TCJA’s tax cuts, increases spending on defense and immigration enforcement, significantly cuts Medicaid expenditures, and increases the debt ceiling by $5tn. The law’s budgetary impact will depend on the path of interest rates, how the economy responds to its various incentives, and whether temporary provisions are eventually made permanent. In this episode, we talk with Rachel Snyderman, Managi...
Jul 11, 2025•45 min•Season 1Ep. 54
The US Court of International Trade ruled last month that President Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally implement this year’s tariffs under emergency powers, throwing the president’s newest trade levies into legal limbo. As the case winds its way through the appeals process, the international trade environment hangs in the balance. In this episode, we talk with Ilya Somin, Professor of Law at George Mason University and co-counsel in the recent tariff case at the US Court of Intern...
Jun 27, 2025•26 min•Season 1Ep. 53
Regulations, snarled supply chains, and the scarring effects of the global financial crisis have all contributed to a nationwide housing shortage over the last fifteen years. As housing unaffordability continues to limit prospective homebuyers, homebuilders must now contend with federal policies that will impact housing demand, labor availability, and costs for building materials. In this episode, we talk with Robert Dietz, Chief Economist with the National Association of Home Builders, about wh...
Jun 13, 2025•36 min•Season 1Ep. 52
The Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) was designed to increase banking sector resiliency after the Global Financial Crisis. Some have argued the SLR reduces Treasury market liquidity because the ratio is risk insensitive. Fed officials like Jerome Powell and Michelle Bowman have supported SLR reform, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes changes to the SLR could push Treasury yields down 30-70bp. In this episode, we talk with Joseph Wang, Principal at Monetary Macro and former trader on...
May 29, 2025•32 min•Season 1Ep. 51
The dollar has been the de facto global currency since World War II, pulling foreign investment into the US and allowing the federal government to borrow cheaply. A strong dollar also makes export-driven domestic industries less competitive, something the Trump administration is trying to offset through tariffs. A rumored “Mar-a-Lago Accord” would attempt to maintain the benefits of cheap borrowing while weakening the dollar. In this episode, we talk with Benn Steil, Senior Fellow and Director o...
May 16, 2025•37 min•Season 1Ep. 50
The typical automobile manufactured in North America crosses national borders at least six times before it’s ready to be sold. Tariffs are expected to increase US auto prices by thousands of dollars as companies establish new supply chains and onshore manufacturing with higher production costs. In this episode, we talk with Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist with Cox Automotive, about the complexity of auto manufacturing supply chains, tariffs’ impacts on prices and employment in the auto sector, a...
May 02, 2025•35 min•Season 1Ep. 49
The Fed has been able to dismiss the economic risks from deteriorating sentiment by emphasizing the steady unemployment rate and decent job growth over the last seven months. The labor market’s surprising resilience over the last few years will now be tested by tariff-induced production changes, federal workforce layoffs, cuts to federal spending, and tighter immigration enforcement. In this episode, we talk with Guy Berger, Director of Economic Research at the Burning Glass Institute, about the...
Apr 18, 2025•35 min•Season 1Ep. 48
President Trump’s latest tariff announcements have thrown global financial markets into a frenzy and increased the uncertainty for the US economic outlook. In this special edition of Simply Put, we talk with Amit Khandelwal, Professor of Global Affairs and Economics at Yale University, about the arguments for and against tariffs, how the 2018 tariffs affected the economy, and what the impacts could be of this year’s much broader and deeper tariff policies.
Apr 07, 2025•34 min
This year’s budget reconciliation bill has the potential to dramatically alter the fiscal relationship between states and the federal government. Some policymakers have proposed repealing the municipal tax exemption that has been at the heart of state financing for over a century. Others have suggested cutting federal spending by shifting the burden for certain outlays to state and local governments. In this episode, we talk with Emily Brock, Director of the Federal Liaison Center at the Governm...
Apr 04, 2025•35 min•Season 1Ep. 46
Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been significant actors in the housing market for nearly a century. Ever since market distress pushed Fannie and Freddie into conservatorship of the Federal Housing Finance Authority in 2008, policymakers have sought to transition the firms back into more privatized roles. Reform discussions have accelerated after the November elections, but any massive changes would have to be judicious and likely require bipartisan su...
Mar 21, 2025•38 min•Season 1Ep. 45
The pandemic fiscal response supported a much faster recovery in the US than after the financial crisis, but price levels and the federal deficit surged. Households and businesses, tired of high interest rates and cumulative price increases, must now contend with a tariff regime that aims to improve US competitiveness abroad at the risk of higher consumer prices. The Fed meanwhile is trying to restore price stability and preserve the recovery, unsure how much its rate policy is channeling into t...
Mar 07, 2025•54 min•Season 1Ep. 44
Wildfires swept through parts of southern California last month, causing indescribable human suffering and property destruction. The rising frequency and magnitude of these events, along with the unintended consequences of some well-intentioned regulations, are also placing unique pressure on the insurance market. In this episode, we talk with Matt Palazola, Senior Analyst for Property and Casualty Insurance with Bloomberg Intelligence, about the size of the wildfires’ insured losses, the risk o...
Feb 21, 2025•28 min•Season 1Ep. 43
Over the last few years, the technological promise of artificial intelligence (AI) has propelled stock market gains, driven fears of widespread labor market displacement, and helped turn microchip production into a matter of national security. Generative AI models are still in their infancy, but investors and economists are already debating whether its impact will rival that of electricity or the steam engine. There are nonetheless numerous hurdles to overcome before it becomes dispersed through...
Feb 07, 2025•40 min•Season 1Ep. 42
The US Treasury has once again started to use “extraordinary measures” to honor its debt service obligations and avoid breaching the debt ceiling. With these measures expected to run out sometime this summer, any efforts to increase or suspend the debt ceiling will run concurrently with Republican priorities to renew tax cuts and cut government spending. President Trump has voiced support in eliminating the debt ceiling altogether, creating the possibility of a bipartisan agreement that would re...
Jan 24, 2025•35 min•Season 1Ep. 41
With slim majorities in the House and Senate, Republicans hope to narrow the fiscal deficit and extend many of the tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). A handful of fiscal hawks and the Senate’s legislative rules could limit the GOP’s ability to accomplish renewal of the TCJA’s biggest provisions. President-elect Trump also campaigned extensively on raising tariffs to increase revenues and protect domestic industry. In this episode, we talk with Alan Cole, Senior Economist with t...
Jan 10, 2025•48 min•Season 1Ep. 40
The US economic recovery continued through 2024, but inflation progress has stalled above 2% and the labor market has significantly cooled. Despite the FOMC lowering interest rates by 100bp this year, Fed officials and financial markets head into 2025 uncertain about the pace and magnitude of any future rate cuts. Republicans won back control of the White House and majorities in both halls of Congress, creating a path to significant federal policy changes over at least the next two years. In thi...
Dec 27, 2024•50 min•Season 1Ep. 39
During the last two years, aggressive monetary policy tightening compressed banks’ net interest margins, placed tremendous strain on banks’ balance sheets, and demonstrated the vulnerabilities from exposure to CRE. The banking sector is hoping that additional Fed easing and less restrictive federal regulations next year will create more favorable conditions for profitability, M&A, and operational flexibility. In this episode, we talk with Jeff Davis, Managing Director of Mercer Capital’s Fin...
Dec 13, 2024•36 min•Season 1Ep. 38
The rising frequency of extreme weather events has put elevated pressure on municipal budgets to pay for relief efforts and prepare for future disasters. Public costs have also increased because the areas seeing the highest population growth can be the most vulnerable to such events. In this episode, we talk with Tom Doe, CEO and Founder of Municipal Market Analytics, about the scope of extreme weather events, how municipal governments complement federal assistance to manage the costs, and how t...
Nov 29, 2024•40 min•Season 1Ep. 37
Treasuries function as the benchmark asset in bond markets, underscoring their importance in borrowing rates and global financial conditions. As fears of higher future Treasury supply loom large, bond investors look to certain metrics to help understand how well the market is absorbing increasing levels of public debt. Changes in Treasury yields reflect underlying macroeconomic fundamentals, but they are also driven by central banks’ balance sheet management, the maturity profile of newly issued...
Nov 15, 2024•30 min•Season 1Ep. 36
The economy has consistently defied expectations since 2020, prompting important questions about the soundness of the models used by the Fed and most economists. High inflation persisted much longer than the Fed predicted, inflation fell substantially without significant labor market weakening, and the economy weathered aggressive Fed tightening by growing above its estimated long-run potential. In this episode, Chris Low, Chief Economist of FHN Financial, and Thomas Coleman, Senior Lecturer at ...
Nov 01, 2024•50 min•Season 1Ep. 35
With control of the White House and House looking up for grabs, the post-election policy landscape looks highly uncertain only weeks before November 5. The priorities of the new president will run up against an unpredictable amount of Congressional and judicial pushback, creating a wide range of estimates for growth, inflation, federal deficits, and subsequent Fed policy. In this episode, we talk with Lucy Eve, Director of Global Macro-Geoeconomics with Eurasia Group, about the economic implicat...
Oct 18, 2024•41 min•Season 1Ep. 34
Unlike the markets for Treasury securities and MBS, the market for loans can be opaque and illiquid, making it difficult for financial institutions to optimize their loan portfolios and find appropriate counterparties with which to buy and sell loans. Periods of macroeconomic and interest rate volatility can also complicate the ability to accurately price loans for assets like commercial real estate. In this episode, we talk with Mitchell Redd, Senior Vice President with the Capital Assets Group...
Oct 04, 2024•39 min•Season 1Ep. 33
Tourism has bounced back after significantly suffering during early pandemic shutdowns. Households across the income spectrum continue to spend on discretionary travel despite economic pessimism and depleted savings. Tourism’s recovery and strength offer insight into how the overall economy has managed to weather high inflation and aggressive Fed tightening without tipping into a recession. In this episode, we talk with Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics, about the tourism industry’s cha...
Sep 20, 2024•31 min•Season 1Ep. 32
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is followed closely by financial market participants as an estimate for economic growth. Rather than looking at a long-term horizon, the model focuses only on the current quarter and updates its estimate after important monthly data reports, giving a real-time ability to check the pulse of the economy instead of waiting for each quarterly GDP release. In this episode, we talk with Patrick Higgins, Economist with the Atlanta Federal Reserve and creator of the GDPNow...
Sep 06, 2024•28 min•Season 1Ep. 31
In his 1986 PhD thesis, Campbell Harvey identified the predictive power of the inverted yield curve through four business cycles. With curve inversion correctly foretelling three more recessions since then, investors this cycle have been anticipating an impending downturn ever since the yield curve inverted nearly two years ago. In this episode, we talk with Dr. Campbell Harvey, Professor of Finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University, about the theoretical foundation connecting t...
Aug 23, 2024•39 min•Season 1Ep. 30
Although the Fed appears to be on the cusp of finally lowering interest rates, the rapid monetary tightening of the last two years has caused significant distress within commercial real estate (CRE). The bleakest doomsday predictions have not come to pass, but property owners have still experienced real losses as people shift to new post-pandemic ways of working and living. In this episode, we talk with Joey Kline, Executive Vice President at Jones Lang LaSalle, about where CRE stands more than ...
Aug 09, 2024•33 min•Season 1Ep. 29
Almost every state and local government worker in the US participates in a public pension system, creating a strong bond between the fiscal health of states and municipalities and their employees’ retirement systems. These smaller systems have faced the same demographic challenges driving concerns over Social Security’s funding, but they’ve also had to deal with rapid migration flows, fluctuating revenues, and the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes during the last four years. In this episode, ...
Jul 26, 2024•28 min•Season 1Ep. 28
China’s booming real estate sector helped propel the country’s tremendous growth over the last few decades. This rapid increase in property valuations contributed to a speculative frenzy that led to overindebted firms, unfinished houses, and a collapse in consumer confidence for homeownership. In this episode, we talk with Kristy Hung, Senior Analyst for China Real Estate with Bloomberg Intelligence, about the fundamental forces driving China’s property sector, what caused recent issues at Everg...
Jul 12, 2024•37 min•Season 1Ep. 27
