Simply Put

Bryan Chapman on the US Oil Industry’s Transformation to Global Leader

Oil prices have remained relatively steady during the last couple of years despite robust global demand and ongoing geopolitical risks from multiple foreign wars. The ability of domestic producers to increase production has played a large part in keeping prices in check, a notable contrast to only 20 years ago when the US was significantly more dependent on buying energy commodities from abroad. In this episode, we talk with Bryan Chapman, Market President for Energy Finance with First Horizon, ...

Chris Low on the Fed’s 2% Inflation Target

As the Fed continues to fight high inflation, some analysts have argued that structural forces are making the ideal inflation target higher than 2% in the post-pandemic economy. Factors out of the Fed’s control are making it particularly difficult this cycle to fully restore price stability without tipping the economy into a recession. Although the current regime has a relatively short history, financial markets would almost certainly question the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility if they wer...

Brian Waters on the Community Reinvestment Act

Congress passed the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) nearly 50 years ago to encourage lending within financial institutions’ local communities. Since its passage, regulators have tried to modernize the CRA in order to keep up with broad changes in the financial system. Today, banks and bank examiners are preparing for possible reforms in the coming years that would significantly alter how they comply with the CRA. In this episode, we talk with Brian Waters, President and Co-Founder of FindCRA, a...

Matt Peterman and Ruben Rodriguez on the SBA Market

Loans issued by the Small Business Administration are pooled into securities that are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government, have a quarterly adjusting feature, and have no floating rate cap. The SBA market is big and liquid enough to function smoothly through shocks like legislative risk and the 2023 regional banking crisis. In this episode, we talk with Matt Peterman and Ruben Rodriguez of FHN Financial about the structure of SBA 7(a) securities, how the SBA market functione...

Julia Gelatt on the Impacts of Immigration on the US Economy

Recent research from the Congressional Budget Office suggests that an initial undercounting of undocumented migrants may help explain the surprisingly resilient US economy during the last two years. From a macroeconomic perspective, the future path of migration flows will significantly affect longer-term estimates of potential economic growth and public budget trajectories. In this episode, we talk with Julia Gelatt, Associate Director of the US Immigration Policy Program at the Migration Policy...

James Hotchkiss on the Federal Home Loan Bank System

The Federal Home Loan Bank system started as a Great Depression-era effort to support homeownership across the United States. Ever since, it has transformed into a vital source of liquidity for its member banks in good times and bad. In this episode, we talk with James Hotchkiss, Senior Director of Strategies and Solutions at the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago, about the FHLB system’s history, how it serves its member banks, and its role in the US financial system.

Preston Mui on the Labor Market

The labor market is at the center of overall economic activity and how the Federal Reserve understands inflation. It can be difficult to gauge underlying trends for employment and compensation, however, when some data series appear to be telling different stories. In this episode, we talk with Preston Mui, Senior Economist at Employ America, about how to understand the most important labor market data, how the Fed views labor market tightness in its fight against high inflation, and the outlook ...

Brian Matochik and Christian Turner on Bank Derivatives Tools

The use of derivatives has evolved since the global financial crisis, giving banks opportunities to protect against the risks and uncertainty that stem from aggressive Fed tightening. Now that the Fed is poised to begin policy easing later this year, these tools can also help banks weather falling interest rates to support financial system stability. In this episode, we talk with Brian Matochik and Christian Turner, Senior Vice Presidents with the Derivative Products Group at FHN Financial, abou...

Greg Baer on the Basel III Endgame

Decades ago, the Basel Accords attempted to minimize global financial risk by standardizing regulations across major countries. The current phase of legislation, initially crafted after the global financial crisis and now dubbed the “Basel III endgame,” would impose new risk-weighted capital requirements on US banks and widen the net of financial regulation, potentially increasing costs for banks and customers in an attempt to elevate banking sector resiliency. In this episode, we talk with Greg...

Mark Palim on the Housing Market

The shift from rock-bottom interest rates early in the pandemic to mortgage rates eclipsing 8% has caused housing inventories to plummet and demand for new housing construction to increase. As the housing market reaches somewhat of a standstill from homeowners experiencing “mortgage lock,” rising house prices make first-time homeownership increasingly less affordable. While the housing market has so far weathered these changes without an industry-wide collapse, cyclical forces can always cause d...

Adriana Reyes on Long-term US Demographics

Demographics are at the core of understanding future economic growth and the long-run environment for financial institutions. Population trends, migration patterns, generational attitudes towards homeownership, and shifting approaches to retirement significantly impact loan demand, the housing market, and the macroeconomy. While some trends have accelerated during the past four years, others appear to be temporary pandemic adjustments. In this episode, we talk with Adriana Reyes, Assistant Profe...

Ethan Heisler on the 2024 Banking Sector

The banking sector managed to avoid the worst case scenarios that some predicted in March 2023. But with banks still adjusting to the Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening during the last two years, they are now shifting their attention to managing prospective rate cuts later this year. Meanwhile, the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening, Reverse Repo facility, and the 2023 Bank Term Funding Program are all set to reach critical inflection points during the next few months. In this episode, Ethan Heisle...

Brett Bolton on the 2024 Bond Market’s Tax and Regulatory Environment

The bond market will be adapting to some new regulations this year while also keeping an eye on some new legislative proposals in the pipeline. With November elections up in the air, the future of some provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are set to sunset next year are top of mind for many fixed income investors. In this episode, we talk with Brett Bolton, Vice President and Head of Government and Industry Relations with the Bond Dealers of America, about what to expect for bond marke...

The 2023 Year in Review

2023 began with widespread recession forecasts, stubborn inflation, and slowing job growth. Despite higher interest rates, months of debt ceiling anxiety, and a regional banking crisis this year, the US economy managed to avoid a recession and heads into 2024 with rising hopes for a soft landing. In this episode, FHN Financial’s Chris Low and Sophia Kearney-Lederman return to the podcast to discuss the biggest trends in 2023 and what they’re keeping an eye on in 2024.

Claudia Sahm on the Resilient yet Unpopular 2023 Economy

With only a couple weeks left in 2023, the economy has managed to avoid a recession that one year ago seemed inevitable. Personal consumption has been robust and the unemployment rate has stayed below 4% despite aggressive Fed tightening and inflation eroding real spending power. Households and businesses nonetheless report dour views of the economy. In this episode, we talk with Claudia Sahm, former Fed researcher and founder of Sahm Consulting, about the resilient 2023 economy, why sentiment s...

Marc Goldwein on the Federal Budget Deficit

The US Treasury recently increased the size of its securities auctions to help accommodate a widening Federal deficit. With the biggest pandemic stimulus bills in the rearview mirror, bond investors are worried that big deficits are no longer a temporary phenomenon. Rising interest rates, demographic changes, and a gridlocked political climate are complicating any easy path to budget reform. In this episode, we talk with Marc Goldwein, Senior Vice President and Senior Policy Director at the Comm...

Annie Rothrock on the Semiconductor Microchip Industry

A primary driver of early-pandemic inflation came from a shortage of semiconductor microchips, a technology essential to everyday items like automobiles and personal electronics that is both expensive and time-intensive to produce. While semiconductor manufacturing has since managed to narrow the gap between supply and demand, US policymakers have taken steps to increase domestic independence in this burgeoning industry. In this episode, we talk with Annie Rothrock, Vice President of the firm AT...

Peter Hooper on Inflation Modeling in the Post-Pandemic Economy

The Federal Reserve and many market analysts have been surprised by the inflation trajectory during the pandemic; first by the persistence and intensity of inflation that began in 2021, and more recently by the improvement that has occurred without a meaningful increase in the unemployment rate. Models that rely on inflation expectations and labor market strength have had relatively weak predictive power during the last few years, calling into question how well we understand what drives inflatio...

Terry Belton on the Next Phase of the Bond Market

The rise in nominal bond yields the last couple of years has reversed a nearly four-decade trend of falling yields prior to the pandemic. With inflation now slowing and the economic effects of the pandemic fading, it’s unclear whether we will return to something resembling the pre-pandemic interest rate environment or if we are in the early stages of a new normal. In this episode, Terry Belton, former Head of Global Portfolio Strategy for the Chief Investment Office at JP Morgan, discusses what ...

Sophia Kearney-Lederman on Understanding the Fed’s Economic and Rate Projections

Four times per year, the Federal Open Market Committee releases a Summary of Economic Projections that reports FOMC participants’ projections for the federal funds rate and key economic variables. The SEP, featuring the so-called “dot plot,” gives markets a sense of where the Fed feels the economy and monetary policy are heading the next few years, but the implications are not always clear. In this episode, Sophia Kearney-Lederman of FHN Financial talks about what goes into the Fed’s projections...

Mike DeLisle on Asset Liability Management during this Tightening Cycle

Banks use Asset Liability Management modelling, or ALM, to position for different interest rate scenarios and economic shocks. Rapid interest rate hikes starting last year and March bank tensions have put unique stresses on bank balance sheets this year, and the prospect of eventual rate cuts can pose its own challenges in the future. In this episode, Mike DeLisle of FHN Financial discusses how banks have adjusted their balance sheets during this cycle of Fed tightening and how they can best pos...

Landon Williams on the Commercial Real Estate Landscape

Commercial Real Estate has come into focus from shifting asset valuations and higher interest rates prompted by the pandemic economy. With bank balance sheets exposed to some of these properties, some worry that any weakness in CRE will add to existing banking industry distress. In this episode, Landon Williams of Cushman & Wakefield discusses the primary drivers of CRE in the current environment, the potential for systemic pressures in the near future, and the most important things to look ...

Abby Urtz on how the Shift to Remote Work Impacts the Municipal Debt Market

The pandemic turbo-charged a shift to remote work that has changed how we live and work. Every city has experienced this a little differently depending on demographics, local job composition, and flexibility of municipal budgets. In this episode, FHN Financial’s Abby Urtz discusses how the new remote work landscape is impacting cities and the municipal debt market.

Walt Schmidt on MBS in the Context of the Fed’s Balance Sheet Management

In addition to lowering its policy rate at the beginning of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve engaged in Quantitative Easing, meant to lower longer-term interest rates and stabilize the mortgage market. Now that the Fed is aiming to remove accommodation from the economy, it is quietly shrinking the amount of Treasury securities and MBS on its balance sheet while markets focus on the path of the fed funds rate. In this episode, FHN Financial’s Walt Schmidt talks about how to understand MBS as the...

Chris Low on the Prospect of Achieving a Soft Landing

The low unemployment rate and improving inflation picture suggest a so-called “soft landing” could be on the horizon. Rate-sensitive sectors like tech and housing also seem to give a roadmap for how the economy can come into better balance without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. In this episode, FHN Financial’s Chief Economist Chris Low talks about why he’s skeptical the Fed can bring inflation down to its long-run 2% target without tipping the economy into a recession. Also, we...

Gray Bowles on the 2023 Banking Sector Landscape

There’s been relative calm in the banking sector recently after months of worry that a few regional bank failures in March were the first signs of much larger cracks in the financial system. Banks face ongoing liquidity risks, but the bigger issues in the next year could be in bank profitability and funding mix. In this episode, Gray Bowles, Senior Vice President of Portfolio Strategy with FHN Financial, discusses what he sees as the key risks for the banking sector in the next 6-12 months....

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