Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova.
And I'm Nate Silver. Do we even need a script? For today? We're talking about the election, right.
We are, and today is Monday, November fourth, and so today we will be This is an extra special episode of Risky Business. We don't usually drop on Mondays, but here we are recording and dropping on the same day to bring you what we know and hope and fear and just state of the world less than twenty four hours away from election day. Yeah, it's exciting. Nate. What are your plans for today and for tomorrow?
So for today there are things that are extremely high priority and things that are medium high priority. Today, at midnight, we will run the model for the last time, and I'll publish kind of my big last overview of the race. So I'm starting to write that in my head.
I haven't put.
Keys to our fingers to keys quite yet. We also have an election night model for Silver Bulletin readers that I think is kind of cool. It relies on which states have been called by the networks, because we didn't want to have to estimate vote shares individually. Right, we don't want to have to get too cute and we're busy. We're just two people, Eli and I. But I'll figured out that you can get a lot of information from
like when a state is called. If Florida, probably a Trump state is called early for Trump accounts, it's both fast that reveals much more information than if it takes a while, and it's kind of closed, which, even though Trump might win, is kind of potentially maybe even vaguely okay for Harris. If Florida is not called until eleven PM, that means probably Trump wins by only a couple of points,
which means that Harris will performing her polls. So the model can now account for the timing of calls as well as which state remains uncalled.
I think it's pretty cool. Product.
I have like three more hours of work to do on that product.
No, that is pretty cool. Yeah, no, I didn't really think about that. But of course there is a ton of information in things like that which can be more bullish or more bearish for either of the candidates. So I'm excited to see how that plays out in real time. So before we get into kind of the nitty gritty and some of the big polls and big news that have come out since we lost spoke La last week. What is your thought on kind of where we are
right now? Let's get like a big picture overview, you know, one day to go before the election. Where do we stand? Where does the ray stand?
So the big picture, and we'll get into the medium sized picture in a moment. The big picture is that it's an extremely close election in the polls. That does not necessarily guarantee it will be a close election. In reality, the polls could be way off out the direction, and I've been getting more worried about that in both directions for various reasons recently. But you know, we've never had
a presidential election this close to fifty to fifty. Literally, our last model run had Trump at fifty point Let me look at the exact numbers, just so I'm not misquoting myself, and Harris at forty nine point scroll down, page, scroll down, scroll down, Brood forty nine point two percent, Trump at fifty point four percent, and no majority meaning a tie which probably gets resolved for Trump by the way, at zero point four percent. So I literally do not
know who's going to be ahead. In the last model run we published after midnight tonight. That is Harris's best number in two and a half weeks. At the same time, the forecast has spent the last six or seven weeks in the range we call a tass up within the range of sixty to forty.
You now the direction.
It's rarely fallen outside of that range.
We've never gone.
Outside that sixty forty range at almost any point, just for a few days for Harris after her convention she was below of forty percent. But like so, it's the same variation. There are these seven swing states. She at this point seems to be doing a little bit better in the Blue Wall states in particular Michigan and Wisconsin, less so in Pennsylvania. But that's kind of a pure tie and has kept a North Carolina and Georgia quite competitive. But if you squint, you see maybe a Trump lead
of one point. No one can agree on Nevada except to say that we don't know anything about Nevada. Arizona is the one state that seems like the safest bet for Trump, although although Maria, there was a poll of Latino voters out today that showed Harris ahead, and it survey just I think it was Telemundo or Univision.
I can't one of.
Those major networks that had Harris winning Latinos by thirty two points in a large sample of Latinos or something the range of thirty two points, which would be a total reversal of earlier poland that showed her doing worse than typical Democratic margins among the Hispanic population. And you have this plausible cause where Trump had this rally where one of the warm up speakers made offensive comments about Puerto Ricans, and all these Latino pop stars endorsed Harris, and that would.
Be a big deal.
I mean, that's when you might get you know, in particular Arizona, Nevada finishing for Harris a little bit than the polls might suggest. By the way, there are a lot of Puerto Ricans in eastern Pennsylvania. There are some counties in Pennsylvania where eleven percent of the population is Puerto Rican.
That could be important in.
A race that could come down to one or two counties in Pennsylvania.
And so I don't know, we.
Talked about it last week bad but any matters people that matter.
Well, I also worry that, like, look, there's not a huge change in the race. There's also some data that Harris is doing well with people who decided late in the race over the past week. You know, I mean, I wish, despite wanting to get some sleep and having this fucking thing be over with, I wish that uh, we had like three more days of polling, or that we had polsters that were pulling this week in because like you can kind of see the makings of a
trend toward Harris. It's not so clear that it isn't just noise. A lot of polsters, by the way, are it's got picked up last.
Week, are hurting.
They're just kind of literally matching the polling averages exactly in every state.
You know.
But the independent data points like this pull latinos.
The last seve New.
York Times polls were pretty good for har It's not fantastic, you know, consistent with tilt Harris race. Also some poles that were good for Trump. Right, I mean, the forecast is like literally fifty to fifty. Now she talked about the Seltzer poll.
Yeah, let's do it. So let's first set this up for people who don't obsessively follow polls. So the Seltzer poll, one of the most high quality polls that exists and something that people really pay attention to. Nate, do you want to just give us like a little bit of an overview why her poll matters and kind of what this means and why it's important that this poll dropped just right now and is actually giving information that is contrary to two prior polls in the state.
So and Seltzer is the one polster that kind of doesn't have egg on her face. She has repeatedly defied the conventional wisdom and bean correct I remember in two thousand and eight she had Barack Obama winning the Iowa caucuses by a large margin.
People didn't believe it, and he did so.
In June and Seltzer has a poll showing Biden trailing Trump by eighteen points even a by the way, eighteen points is epic landslide. And she has an old school poster. She doesn't do this hurting crap. She's not afraid to let her data speak for itself. In September, she has a poll showing Kamala Harris trailing Trump, but by only four points in Iowa. People are like, oh, it's an outliner.
Kind of interesting, kind of interesting. I think Biden lost Iowa by eight points in twenty and twenty, so she had her finer pull out on Saturday night. I had plans on Saturday which were canceled because of this poll. I'm okay, it'll probably show Trump plus six, a little bit better for Harris, and the priors might be, but you know whatever, we know Trump's gonna win Iowa instead. The number is Harris plus three, the state that Democrats lost by nine points in twenty eight nine points in
twenty twenty, Harris has had by three points. Now, look, these poles have a margin of error. If you actually calculate this out diligently like I do, the real margin could be Trump plus three, or for that matter, Harris plus nine or whatever.
I think that's pretty unlikely.
But this is an epistemologically important data point because Anne Selter doesn't follow the herd. One of the few independent pieces of information that you get. And there's kind of a story of like Paris getting some surprisingly good polls in this kind of prairie part of the Midwest. Right, You've got polls of Ohio that she's probably gonna win Ohio,
but are closer. You got poles, and you know in Nebraska, including the one district where they do reward an electoral vote, that have been very good for Harris all year long, even a pole and Kansas.
Showed a single digit race. You know. The thing that doesn't make sense is like, if she's doing so.
Well in Iowa, then why is it tied in Wisconsin. You're not gonna have like Wisconsin Harris plus one and Iowa Harris plus three. If she wins by three in Ioways probably wins by seven in Wisconsin or something at a minimum, And so lots of theories about it, but
but you know, it reassured. At the very least, it raises the possibility that polsters who have less guts than an Seltzer are terrified to show Harris leads because they're knits, Maria, They're fucking knits, and they're terrified of being wrong and being criticized because they don't have the fucking guts that that we have here on the podcast.
This is true.
This is true.
We're definitely not.
And they have bad data.
By the way, if you have bad data, to just copy the polling averages.
But that's absolutely true. So if so, if Seltzer is is onto something I'm actually a little bit curious about your your take on whether we've been We've been critical of her VP pick for for many for many months, basically since she made it. Do you think that Walls might be helping her a little bit? No, not at all.
She's Minnesota. That is that is very funny the satur Live skit where they couldn't tell it was Tim Walls or Tim Kane. I think is all you need to know?
Is all you need to know?
All right?
All right, I just wanted I just wanted to throw that out there. But yeah, it seems like ann Seltzer has more balls than a lot of the other polsters that we're seeing. And uh, and that says something so other than that. We had the New York Times Siena polls right come out. That is the other thing that has uh, that has changed since you and I spoke, and those are well, why don't you why don't you give us a little bit of an update and how that has has that has affected your thinking if at all?
Because they did their polls of the seven swing states right New.
York Time Sceiena College had shown this unusual divide where they had had Harris doing conspicuously well in the Blue Wall states. Again, those are in Michigan, Wisconsin, in Pennsylvania, and conspicuously badly outside of the blue walls, so North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada. Those margins tightened a little bit in their final set of poles, which could reflect I mean, they don't heard either, at least I don't think it could reflect mean reversion, right.
I mean maybe if you if you burnt all these poles and you're honest and you don't heard, you're gonna have some results that are are our outliers, and directionally speaking, you know, I mean, they still show a wider gap in somebody.
It was a little more scrambled, right.
It kind of was more that thesis like, yeah, all these seven states are are are really close. But in general, I think, if you like, in general, they were consistent with like a map where Harris probably finds some way to win. I think they had her head in like North Carolina and Nevada and Michigan, Wisconsin. That's the case where actually Nevada would matter in that precise combination. I
think they also had Pennsylvania as a tie. Roughly, well, all these poles, I have had a tie roughly, I think they had like an exact DIY.
It's going for memory here.
So yeah, Now, look there are other poles. This this Brazilian in firm called Atlas Intel, that's highly rated, that's had very Trump numbers. National polls have tightened a lot, to the point where you would think that would be good news for Trump. If he wins or loses a popular vote by only a pointer, or wins a popular vote, then he probably is gonna win the electoral College. So yeah, conflicting data, but I'd say that I mean both the model and kind of.
My subjective subjective take not worth very much.
Are are you know, more bullish for Harris than they were a week ago or two weeks ago, And to the point where if you literally gave me a million dollar free bet, I'm not sure who had been on, I'd be here.
I'd be here.
That's interesting because we know that a few a few weeks ago that would not have been the case. And I you know, from a psychological standpoint, I'm really nervous that I am taking the data that I want to see because obviously we we know, you know, I'm I'm very open that I voted for Harris. I want Harris to win. And so when I see this, you know, and sells her poll, I'm like, yes, also right, like we're seeing yes, absolutely, this means she's going to win.
This means she's going to win. And I am so nervous of that tendency because confirmation bias is real, right, and there are people on Trump's on you know, Trump supporters who are you know, just as absolutely certain that Trump is going to win. And we know that the way betting markets work, right, if you're someone's betting against you, and both sides always think that they're right, otherwise they would not be putting money down. And usually everyone thinks
that the other person's the dumb money. No one thinks that they're the dumb money.
The betters, by the way, have tightened.
Also, yeah, let's actually talk about that a little bit because poly market and betting markets in general. But Polymarket has made the biggest move because poly Market was the biggest Trump favorite outlier.
There are a couple of things here.
One hypothesis is that this French she was identifies like some French guy with sort of midwith opinions like.
Shy trump boarders, I'm French, the French.
We need your French accent?
Where shot swamp filltel? I really French, I really do fore it to do regional American?
All right, fine, let's say where where's the where's our French guy from in regional America? All right, let's do it?
Uh Louisiana? Okay?
Anyway, But like so, maybe he just ran out of money that he's willing to bet. And if if he is now put all the money he's willing to invest in this bet and kind of capitulate it, then it kind of falls to this price floor. And I think that's part of what happened, because like the movement in polling averages didn't really correlate that well day to day with movement in the polls except the Seltzer pole. But
the Seltzer pole also changes a narrative a lot. And so you know, so one story is about this one trader who impacted the whole market, right. Another story is that you have lots of people making technical trades because they think they can read the vibes of the market. And then you have a reconciliation close to the elections. So if you get Harris cheap, right, maybe you might now hedge on some trump but anyway, but it could be that you revert to the fundamentals. But they converged.
The markets converged toward the models and not the other way around. And again, I work as a consultant for polymarkets. I respect both of these techniques. But I think people don't understand that market sentiment is a thing, particularly in.
Things. Well, I don't know. I guess.
I guess it's more anchored to some reality than a lot of things that are are traded. Right, But market sentiment is a thing and becoming more of a thing, right when game stop can go rocket one hundred x based on no fundamental change whatsoever, right or NFTs or or or you know, dj T, Donald John Trump, DJT stock.
You know.
Look, and again, as someone who's actively an actual gambler, I am understand that rich whales are what make gambling profitable for skilled gamblers. They're a very important part of the ecosystem. And you have people who are like who are like, well, he's putting his money behind it.
It must be you must know something.
No, he's probably a fucking idiot, right, an idiot will be right. Fifty one percent of the time, so God bless him. But like, god, have you ever fucking met rich people with like strong political opinions?
They are not.
Particularly half and they are they are some of my favorite opponents at the poker table.
And they are great to having your lifestyle right, But like they don't they index off these kind of stylized truths that are not more accurate, I don't think than the models now when there's no information. If you know, there's a murder investigation into Kamala Harris's husband that begins tonight, right, you know, that won't have time to be reflected in the polls, but it will be reflected by prediction markets,
and so that's quite useful. But like, but they kind of believe in these halfways superstitious things, and in any event, they've converged toward the models. I mean, there's a slight Trump edge in Polly Marker. I think it's you know, fifty six forty four or something, but much closer than it had been a couple of weeks ago.
That's very interesting that there's still a Trump edge there. And then yet you say that if you were given a million dollar free roll, you might actually place it on Harris So this is just this is giving me and my gambler's mind a little bit of pause to try to figure out, you know, what are some arbitrage opportunities right now leading into the election. But I'm interested to see what will actually happen and how this will
play out. And given the fact that everything is so close, let's pivot a tiny bit and talk about our predictions for tomorrow and for whether when we basically think this race is going to be done, we'll be back right after this. We've obviously had some close elections last election cycle, so four years ago, we did not know the outcome on election day itself. What do we think, you know, if we were, if we were making some predictions, what
do we think is going to happen this year? Because obviously there are some people who are giving just very you know, scary civil warlike predictions that you know, no, no outcome is going to be accepted, blah blah blah, all these all these things are going to happen. People are going to not certify. They're all of these what ifs.
So let's try to talk from a rational, data driven, not an emotional perspective, not the things I'm afraid of and try to figure out what do we think is going to happen tomorrow, What where do the results need to be, what do the margins need to be like for the result to be kind of definitive within the next few days, or or Nate, are you and I going to be having this conversation for the next month two months to try to figure out who the hell won the election and what's happening.
So, as I think I talked about before, if you want a non tense election, then you want to be rooting for a polling air. So this is why my life sucks either way this nightmare or situation, or you have a big polling air because like so, if the polls are off consistently in the same direction, then then someone could sweep six or seven of the swing states. And in that case, then I look, I'm sure that Trump would not happily accept defeat unless it's really really bad.
But yeah, there's a thirty four percent chance that one candidate sweeps all the swing states, and like another twenty percent chance that it's six or seven in one direction. I mean, I've tried to look alonto.
By the way, those are pretty high percentages. Thirty four percent is a pretty high percentage.
Yeah, one in three.
I've tried to look a lot at uh, exactly how the night will play out. That's important for the election night stuff I'm doing. You know, the vote counting should be faster than last time around because there are fewer male votes, because you don't have Democrats staying at home because of COVID as much. Some states have expedited their procedures, some have not.
You know, I mean there's rebel.
Networks call at versus we'll skilled traders know by which way it's leaning by three am Wednesday morning. I mean, I'd say seventy percent chance that we'll know by Wednesday three am with ninety five plus percent confidence.
Well, that's that's higher than I would have thought.
Estimate pulled out of my ass Well, you're.
You're pulled out of ask. Estimate actually reassures me a little bit because I.
Was that doesn't mean Trump except the results. Right.
Let's say, Harris, it's a blue wall plus Nevada plus North Carolina, one of the more plausible maps, by the way, you.
Know, that gives her some room to spare.
Right in that scenario, she could like lose anyone's state and still have a victory anyone.
Of the swing stage. She couldn't list California or something.
And you know, and that outcome might be clear enough that we'd know it by three four am, although Nevada takes a long time to count its votes in Pennsylvania's too, but we might know by three or four am. And then it's all about the aftermath and about and about you know, what happens with Trump now. Congress passed reforms to the vote counting process. Basically, it's actually a pretty good law in the view of election experts that I
read from. It basically allows the courts to have precedence over Republican legislature, or Democratic ones for that matter, over people who were at the state level, state officials who are trying to interfere with the vote count. And the courts have not shown any tolerance for Trump's shenanigans. He lost like all but one of the other He was like one out of sixty in like court rulings in
twenty twenty. Also, you have in place in all these states positions people in key positions like governors and secretaries of state. You know, you have Democrats having a firewall and almost all, if not all, of these swing states and at least some of those roles, or in the case of Georgia, you have Brian Kemp, who is notoriously not a fan of Trump's tendency to deny that he lost the election in twenty twenty.
So so I'm.
Not so worried about like, if Harris wins, she won't become presidents somehow? Am I worried about violence a little bit?
Yeah?
Yeah, And just for the record too, I mean, if if it's a really close Trump when I don't know what happens, then either people aren't happy.
I actually I do hope. I'm sorry, Nate, I know that you said, you know, you're in a very tough spot, but I do hope that the polling averages are off in the sense that I hope that it's a more decisive election result than it is a closer one, because I think that would just be better for you know, better for the country in a lot of respects. Obviously, you know, as we know, I'm biased, So I hope
that that victory is in Kamala Harris's favor. But you know, I think that this is going to be a crucial election, not just in terms of who wins, but in terms of, you know, the future of our democratic institutions, just to kind of watch to see how they can be stress tested, right they and whether how much they've weakened versus not, and what's just going to happen over the next few days.
I do hope, hope that by November sixth, as you said, so next time we're talking is going to be November six, right, So we're going to be dropping another Risky Business podcast in two days. So I hope that you know, nine am Pacific noon Eastern when we when we speak, that we will actually know the results of the election. I think that would be such a wonderful outcome, just just to know that, Okay, we're not going to have this
protracted battle going on. And to me, to me, that would be to me that would you know, that's something that's really an optimistic, an optimistic take, because I definitely see the scenario we're on the six you and I are talking again being like, so who do we think is gonna win this election and what's going to happen?
And I don't want to be having that conversation again in the sense of wow, like we really can't decide, and and shit's going down because I do think there is a lot of uncertainty, and I do think that there are a lot of things that we just don't know because this is a largely not unprecedented, but it's a very different situation than any that's happened during our lifetimes. And as you say, this is this is the closest race we've had, right, this is the closest race we've had during our lifetime.
I mean, look, I've never had a race where it's literally fifty to fifty before on election day, and it's I'm only forecasted for presidential elections, I guess, But like, you know, look, I was gonna say that, oh, if you're a Democrat and Trump has to win, then maybe at least what happened when clearly so you know, it kind of ends the misery earlier and or avoids the sorts of you know, whatever that could happen in a
close election. I think if you're somebody who is like concerned about Trump excesses and overreach, you want a close election if Trump wins. Conditional on Trump running for a different reason though, which is that in a close election, there's a chance that Democrats control still control, probably not the Senate. Either control the House or keep the Senate to a margin where Trump can't appoint insane cabinet secretaries and has some degree of oversight, right that you don't have Robert F.
Cannedy Junior as a health secretary for example. I'm not joking. He's talked about it.
If you have a fifty two excuse me, a fifty one forty nine up majority in the Senate, you're going to have some objectors to objectors at RFK Junior. If it's fifty four seats, then that's a huge difference. So scenario where like the polling is way off on Trump and he beats his polls again and again, this is look this up. I mean, it's unsurprisingly where Republicans beat their polls in the presidential race and vice versa, the Senate candidates will do the same thing with very high correlation.
So so yeah, Democrats, I think, really want to avoid these lands to lide outcome where they are kind of totally dealt out of power.
I mean, I obviously agree, but I as people know, you know that's the outcome I want is a Democratic victory. But like I said, I'm trying. I'm trying my best, Nate, to look at the data without that emotional tint right now, because I think that emotion ain't going to help anyone other than you know, as we already said, if you haven't voted yet, please please please go out and vote, and if you're undecided, please go, you know, please go and vote tomorrow. I think that that is crucially important.
That's by the way, let me have you know.
Yeah, we talk about these seven swing states, and there's you know, a ninety percent chance that one of them is what I call the tipping points state.
But if you're in.
Iowa or New Hampshire or Virginia or New Mexico or Minnesota or so Alaska, some of these states are reaches for the cat ades, but they come up there once in a while, right, And we're pretty smart about how we simulate this, and like, if the polls are way off,
you could have some surprising states in place. So if you're in that broader pin number of swing states, whoever you have, if you have a preference, I'm not endorsing anybody, but I would endorse idea of your vote being worth the time for you to get off your ass and vote tomorrow. It's going to be easier now because, like, because you have in moll states this spread of like methods of voting. The polls aren't as swarmed as much on election days, so you're not going to have to,
you know, go too far away. Go go one of those nice artistical coffee shops, right, and you get your sticker. So I will endorse idea of voting.
So now you know, with less than twenty four hours left to go, I am going to let you go and worry about your final model and polls and looking forward to seeing what the silver bulletin says tonight. Nate, as you've already said, you have no idea what it's going to look like when you run the model for the last time.
Just as we were taping this, there was a Marist National poll, another high quality pul so that is known for not hurting, that had Harris plus four or so. Look, I mean, I don't know, I don't know who I'd been on. People think I'm like tinkering with knobs and shit, I don't. I have no idea who we had to Well.
Let's see, and I'm very curious. I will be waiting with baited breath. So with that, let's let's leave. Everyone. Please please go vote and we will check back in in forty eight hours to see to see where we are. Good luck everybody, indeed, good luck America. Let us know what you think of the show. Reach out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot Fm. Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kannikova.
And by me Nate Silver.
The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is J.
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