Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova - podcast cover

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

Pushkin Industrieswww.pushkin.fm

Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.

Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.

Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.

Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

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Episodes

From The Kink Machine: The Hidden Business of Pleasure

Streamed by millions every day, porn is everywhere. It shapes our culture, our relationships, and even technology. Yet, nobody seems to know who really controls the business. The power brokers tend to lurk in the shadows, while their performers remain quite literally exposed. In Pushkin's new audiobook, The Kink Machine: The Hidden Business of Adult Entertainment, two Financial Times journalists, Patricia Nilsson and Alex Barker, start digging into the porn industry and following where the money...

Feb 10, 202632 min

Nate and Maria’s 2026 Predictions

In the final episode of Risky Business, Nate and Maria check in on the predictions they made back in January for 2025, and then talk about what they think might be in store in 2026. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....

Jan 07, 202637 minSeason 1Ep. 100

Best of Risky Business: Life After Poker (with Vanessa Selbst)

We look back at Nate and Maria’s interview with former professional poker player Vanessa Selbst—the only woman ever to reach the number one ranking on the Global Poker Index. They discuss her experiences playing poker, her move into the world of finance, and why, at her first job after poker, she kept a giant bag of pennies underneath her desk. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener ...

Jan 03, 202643 minSeason 1Ep. 99

Why Are Some Countries Happier Than Others?

Every year, the World Happiness Report comes out and the Nordic countries rejoice. Just kidding – sort of. Small, homogenous countries like Finland (2025’s happiest country) often top the list. But what does that really mean? Nate and Maria dive into the methodology of this research. As well as what it reveals (and doesn’t) about happiness. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for ...

Dec 31, 202539 minSeason 1Ep. 98

Best Of Risky Business: Lessons From The River

When Nate’s book “On The Edge” released in 2024, Maria interviewed him about why he wrote it and what we can learn from the enigmatic risk-loving community he calls The River. Get your copy here For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....

Dec 24, 202543 minSeason 1Ep. 97

Best of Risky Business: Building a Championship Team (with Daryl Morey)

We’re closing out the year with some of our (and your) favorite episodes to date. First up: Nate and Maria’s conversation with Philadelphia 76ers President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey about bringing game theory and probabilistic thinking to the NBA. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....

Dec 20, 202539 minSeason 1Ep. 96

The Riskies! 2025 Edition

Nate and Maria give out their second annual awards for decision-making in 2025: Who made the best decision this year? Who made the worst? Who were 2025’s biggest nits and degens? And which host had the best poker year? For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....

Dec 17, 202542 minSeason 1Ep. 95

What’s In Store With Self-Driving Cars

Nate has ridden in a Waymo, and it was like stepping into the future. Maria’s never been in one, but she’s been stuck behind a lot of autonomous vehicles… They swap human-driven car horror stories and discuss some of the risks and benefits of a future full of self-driving cars. From the New York Times: The Data on Self-Driving Cars Is Clear. We Have to Change Course. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See o...

Dec 13, 202540 minSeason 1Ep. 94

What Movies Get Right and Wrong About Poker

Maria finally gets to reveal a project she’s been working on that’s been kept under wraps, and then it’s movie night on Risky Business! Nate and Maria talk about their favorite poker movies and explain why portrayals of poker for a movie audience often don’t get the game quite right. Plus, they share what poker movie they’d like to make and who’d play them in it. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnys...

Dec 10, 202540 minSeason 1Ep. 93

Frisky Business: Olivia Nuzzi, Ryan Lizza, and Journalistic Ethics

Nate and Maria game out the comparative benefits (and risks) of flying vs. driving vs. taking the train when traveling for the holidays. They also discuss Olivia Nuzzi’s new memoir, her ex-fiancé Ryan Lizza’s substack revelations about her, and the current state of journalistic ethics. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....

Dec 03, 202540 minSeason 1Ep. 92

The Prisoners’ Dilemma of Performance-Enhancing Drugs

This week we answer a question from listener Brandon, who’s noticed a rise in performance-enhancing drugs outside of sports. Nate and Maria discuss their own philosophies on PEDs, their impact on equilibriums, and what people risk when they decide to juice. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....

Nov 29, 202537 minSeason 1Ep. 91

NO LIMIT, Some AI… Poker’s Documentary-Gate

The WSOP’s NO LIMIT docuseries has been scrubbed from the internet following revelations that it includes AI-generated content, despite creator Dustin Ianotti’s explanation that the material “tracked closely” with other quotes and was only used for “faster scene transitions and narrative pacing." For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....

Nov 26, 202542 minSeason 1Ep. 90

Risky Business Live! How To Read People In Poker And Beyond

Most people are bad at spotting bluffs and tells – but there are ways to get better. Nate and Maria discuss tips and tricks from the poker tables with a live audience at Ludlow House in New York City. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....

Nov 22, 202552 minSeason 1Ep. 89

Will The Epstein Files Sink Trump?

After months of resistance, President Trump made a striking reversal on the Epstein files this week, signaling he would sign legislation to release them. Nate and Maria discuss whether this is the start of a “lame duck” spiral for Trump, and whether (or to what extent) it will impact his tenure if the files do finally come to light. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy ...

Nov 19, 202538 minSeason 1Ep. 88

Society is betting on AI – and the outcomes aren’t looking good (with Nate Soares)

Humanity’s attempts to achieve artificial superintelligence will be our downfall, according to If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies . That’s the new book out by AI experts Nates Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky. And while their provocation may feel extreme in this moment when AI slop abounds and the media is hyping a bubble on the verge of bursting, Soares is so convinced of his argument that he’s calling for a complete stop to AI development. Today on the show, Nate and Maria ask Soares how he came t...

Nov 15, 202552 minSeason 1Ep. 87

The Democrats Are Folding on the Shutdown

Despite a blue wave in recent state and local elections, Senate Democrats caved to Republican demands on the shutdown, giving up the health care subsidies they started the shutdown over nearly 50 days ago. Nate and Maria argue that the Democrats are squandering their momentum, and discuss the consequences for key figures like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. They also reflect on the election of Zohran Mamdani, the Mayor-Elect of New York City, and talk about the difference between campaigns...

Nov 12, 202547 minSeason 1Ep. 86

Even Our Economy Is Gamified Now

From social media and dynamic pricing to meme stocks and AI hype, gamification has taken over our lives—and a recent op-ed argues that it’s even spread into our economy, driven by Trump. Nate and Maria discuss the psychology behind the “casino economy” and why speculation and risk are so addicting. They talk about what it means when governments, businesses, and individuals lean into risk even as buffers against bad bets shrink—and why it’s easy not to object until it’s already too late. Further ...

Nov 08, 202536 minSeason 1Ep. 85

What Happens in Vegas...Might Tell Us Something About the US Economy

With traffic down, gambling down, and hotel prices bottoming out, everyone’s asking: Is Las Vegas dead? Nate and Maria wade into the frenzy with some real data and hard-won experience. They talk about why casinos are struggling, what this indicates for the broader economy, and why high-end steak houses are, in fact, a recession indicator. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for pr...

Nov 05, 202544 minSeason 1Ep. 84

What to Make of the NBA Sports Betting Scandal

Last week, two federal indictments and several high-profile arrests rocked the NBA. One indictment accused defendants of sharing insider information to cheat at sports betting, and the other accused over 30 co-conspirators, including members of various mafia families, of rigging poker games. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....

Nov 01, 202541 minSeason 1Ep. 83

Lessons From A Marathoner (with Nicholas Thompson)

Nate and Maria sit down with the elite amateur runner Nicholas Thompson (who also happens to be the CEO of The Atlantic) to talk about his new book The Running Ground. They discuss what running can teach about productivity and fulfillment, his favorite brand of gels, and…his late-father’s brothel in Bali. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....

Oct 29, 202542 minSeason 1Ep. 82

The Canal, the Crash and the Ketamine - Pushkin's Reign of Error

We have a special episode for you today! In which Nate and Maria join their fellow Pushkin hosts to dive deep into the art of failure. Tim Harford of Cautionary Tales shares stories of minor mistakes with massive consequences. Jonathan Goldstein of Heavyweight speaks with his friend, the writer Sheila Heti about the cost of mistakes and whether we're really in control of how many we make. And, our very own Nate and Maria give a gambler's take on the strange science of regret. Cautionary Tales an...

Oct 25, 202544 min

What Democrats Should Take from No Kings Protests

Over the weekend, some 5 million people across the United States marched in ‘No Kings’ protests. Nate and Maria sit down to talk about why this matters, the psychology of protests, and how Democratic strategists can build on the momentum going forward. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....

Oct 22, 202545 minSeason 1Ep. 81

What the Nobels Tell Us About the World Right Now

The 2025 Nobel Prizes have now been announced, and Maria convinces Nate to learn about the winners. They discuss the selection process, the economic award for research on “creative destruction,” and what prizes they should be considered for. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....

Oct 18, 202541 minSeason 1Ep. 80

Good Call/Bad Call: Bari Weiss as CBS’s New Editor-in-Chief

Last week, Paramount bought digital news site The Free Press for $150 million, and made one of its founders, Bari Weiss, the new editor-in-chief of CBS. Everyone has opinions on Weiss…and so do Nate and Maria. They debate whether Weiss has the expertise to be editor-in-chief of a TV network, discuss what her appointment says about Paramount CEO David Ellison’s vision for the company, and judge whether this was a good or a bad call. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: Th...

Oct 15, 202538 minSeason 1Ep. 79

What Jane Goodall Teaches Us About Outsider Thought

Pioneering primatologist and anthropologist Jane Goodall died last week at 91. Nate and Maria talk about Jane’s career path and how her research influenced the fields of both animal and human cognition. They also discuss the significance of the outsider status she held when she began her research, and what everyone can learn from outsiders. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for ...

Oct 11, 202542 minSeason 1Ep. 78

With Sora 2, We’re Climbing Higher on the Dystopia Scale

Nate and Maria discuss how and when the government shutdown is most likely to end. Then, they turn to OpenAI’s newest release: Sora 2, an AI video generation app that allows users to create a video from a text prompt. As Maria struggles to think of some possible positive uses for this app, Nate considers what its release tells us about Open AI's goals for the future. From The Information: Why OpenAI Offered to Pay $500 Million For A Startup With Videogame Data For more from Nate and Maria, subsc...

Oct 08, 202545 minSeason 1Ep. 77

Sleep, Track, Don’t Multitask: How To Succeed In Online Poker

Nate and Maria discuss their favorite topic: poker! In this episode, they dive into the nuanced strategy of online poker: how to manage your schedule, how to prioritize information, and whether quantity trumps quality as you strive to improve. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....

Oct 04, 202536 minSeason 1Ep. 76

Will Eric Adams’s Exit Change the NYC Mayoral Election?

Eric Adams is out of the NYC mayoral race! Nate and Maria discuss his tenure as mayor, the timing of his announcement, and what this means for the remaining candidates. And — because it can be hard to remember a time before his multiple scandals and single-digit polling — they talk about the enthusiasm that once surrounded Adams, and what that arc says about the Democratic leadership vacuum. (And yes, they talk about Nate’s tweet). For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: Th...

Oct 01, 202544 minSeason 1Ep. 75

Did the LA Clippers Take a Page from the Mob?

The NBA is investigating the LA Clippers and team owner Steve Ballmer over allegations that star player Kawhi Leonard accepted a $28 million endorsement as a way to get around the league’s salary cap. The endorsement deal was with the now-defunct sustainable banking company Aspiration—a company in which Ballmer has invested. Nate and Maria talk about whether Ballmer tried to take a page out of the mob playbook, and how the league could deter this kind of behavior in the future. Plus: Nate and Ma...

Sep 27, 202534 minSeason 1Ep. 74

Presidents Have Tried To Censor the Media Before…and It Backfired

Disney briefly pulled Jimmy Kimmel off the air last week for comments he made about Charlie Kirk’s alleged killer, after FCC Chair Brendan Carr threatened action against Disney and ABC. But this is not the first time the government has tried to censor the media: Maria walks us through a brief history of presidents trying to limit what the press says. Then, Nate and Maria discuss whether cancel culture led us to this particular moment. Read Nate’s newsletter post, The political mood feels like 9/...

Sep 24, 202536 minSeason 1Ep. 73
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