The Riskies: The Best, Worst, and Most Interesting Decisions of 2024

bilingualism and does it make sense to learn a second language. Nate, I'm really excited for our first of what I hope will be annual Risky Awards, the Riskies to talk about good and bad decisions of the year in all walks

of life. So obviously, you know, we talk a lot about politics on the show, so we'll have some from politics, but also from business and from sports and Hollywood, just talking in general about risky decisions, which ones worked out, which ones didn't, which ones were good, which ones were bad. So let's get started and talk about awarding the first

risky for the Hero call of the Year. So a decision that looked like it might have been a little crazy at the time but turned out to be brilliant, right, just like a hero callin poker when you're thinking, you're thinking you have jack high and it's your tournament life and you end up calling and you're right because the other guy was bluffing with eight high or whatever it was. Nate, do you have a hero call of the year?

or something like that. Apparently did some polling where he asked people, who are your neighbors owning? For this technique is not that proven, but look it worked. A hero call, by definition, is like if you get the answer right for lots of money, then you have to get some amount of some amount of credit right. A lot of people didn't have the story of conference election. Our forecast really had it. Literally had it more right Thom than

a coin flip. And so I'm going to give the French whale THEO this award.

And I can try and dissect why the campaign did this, but like that that's a decision that's kind of the opposite of the hero call, right, It's like, yeah, the obvious play. If you don't make the obvious play, right, if you have this amazing semi bluffing opportunity, you have a straight draw and a flush draw, and you have full equity, and you choose to play the hand differently in some weird way than it better worked out well or if not, we have the right to criticize you.

think that and I don't think that it was. I think that it was pretty obvious that they should not be folding, right because you know how sicklical this market is. You know how the bear bull cycles work, Like, if you know what you're doing, you do not sell at a bottom right there. But yeah, so that was that's who I gave the the Worst fold of the Year award two, so I think we can we can both give out one.

had a great hand. I think Barbie was a great movie that did incredibly well, and for some reason she was just like completely shut out of the Oscars this year. That happens every year, you know, there's always someone, but this one, I feel like, yeah, I felt a little bit personal about it because I think, you know, she's female, she's talented, she's great, And I actually did not like Oppenheimer at all. I thought it was a horrible movie.

I thought it was really boring. I did not think that it should have gotten all the awards it got, so like I actually disagreed completely. This is from a personal thing, but these are our awards, so they get to be personal. That was my worst. That was my cooler of the year. How about your name?

they wouldn't give one so to a suite. They apparently like harassed his family and his driver, and so he was like, fuck you, I'm actually going to Steve Cohen and the New York Mets. Pretty rare to see a crosstown free agency move like that.

actual kind of decision matrix. You are letting emotions that are incidental and not integral to the decision into the decision. And that's exactly what Joe Biden did.

rewarded Apple. Actually, even though some people were like this is insane, like, right, how can you step away from a multi billion dollar investment? So I think that that was Actually that is what gto is right, is actually being able to make those types of really really tough decisions because you realize, you know what, it doesn't matter. We already spent that money and we can't get it back.

And if we realize we're not competitive, like I'm going to fold my hand right and I'm gonna and I'm going to walk away, and that's going to be okay. And most companies are not capable of doing that. Most CEOs are not capable of doing that. So I want to reward Apple for a really good decision.

didn't work out. But they trust the system. And now the Lions are the best team in the NFL so far this year. So maybe I'll be spending my hard earned dollars on a trip to New Orleans instead in the Super Bowl.

away from sunk costs. And I think that the Biden campaign, which is something that is going to you know, will be feeling the repercussions of that for years to come suffered from the sun cost fallacy. Right, the fact that oh, you know, I am already I said, I'm running like I'm not going to turn back on it. I'm going to keep putting good time and good money after bad.

After it was becoming more and more clear that he shouldn't run again, that he should step away, and the sun cost fallacy I think literally cost them the election because they you know, he did not step away. We've talked about this so many times, but you know, the fact that they didn't pivot, the fact that they kind of didn't take the risk and take on the new strategy and realize, you know what, we're only hurting ourselves by continuing to put good time, good money, good energy

after bad. I think that that was the death the death knell of this of this campaign. So to me, the sun cost fallacy is the decision error that best encapsulates this year.

shift a long way toward Trump. And I think what that is is that you actually look views among other elites, and Democrats have kind of lost touch with with how people outside their group think and what messages are appealing and which aren't. And so I we you know, I don't want to deter this too much, but I'll kind of broadly give it to the Democratic Party. And how capture among all the you know, cognitive elites actually can be a problem in some ways makes sense. Here's a

fun one Djen of the Year. This is one of the most prestigious awards.

This is where I said that you should be the second haters. I was right. I didn't have one for me, but I had it for you, which was that she should have gone for Shapiro. I think that that's I think that you get that award, and uh, the Mia Coolpie was Wrong award. I actually so, I think that I was wrong when we had talked on the podcast about kind of how important crypto was to the election, and I'm like, it's a tiny percentage, it doesn't really matter.

I actually think that it ended up mattering a lot more than I thought it would. And you know, and especially kind of given the amount of money that was donated given kind of some people who I think came out and became single issue voters for Trump because of his take on crypto. I actually think I was a little bit wrong on that. I think I underestimate at the cryptov.

if you want negotiate terms, here's person why who can confirm this? And he didn't respond for four days, right, and then the some morning a New York Times pull comes out and has Harris down like thirteen or fifteen

points in Florida, and I'm like, fuck this. You know you don't have a free option to make this bet whenever, So the offer is rescinded, which he agreed it was too late to accept the bet, certainly not recognizing the complete collapse the Democratic Party in Florida and being lucky to be able to pull out of that bet.

of it. So yes, I'm there for it all. Right. Now, We're going to have two individual awards for us to give out, So mine is the Maria Kanakova Award for the Biggest bluff of the Year, and I am gonna I'm going to get a lot of people mad for this one, but I'm giving it to Sam Altman and open Ai for bluffing about the mission and the non profit nature of open Ai and getting you know, saying how it was all about, you know, just just being for the good of the world and then raising money

and saying, actually we're going to be for profit and all of this stuff that like, obviously it was going to be a business and obviously like this is where it was heading. But I think a lot of people believed his initial bluff, and this is something that's going to be really important and open. Ai is you know how Sam goes about it. I think this is an

important thing to track closely. So I think it's good to realize that this is someone who is incredibly good at bluffing, incredibly credible at bluffing, and bluffs a lot.

Excuse me, he bet like several hundred million dollars of his own money. On Trump went very all in on this movement and now has been rewarded with heading a government or a quasi governmental agency named DOGE and getting this guy he wanted elected. You know, it's a little bit like this thing we said before, where if you kind of make that hero call and not like the odds were that bad. I mean, Biden was evidently in

trouble very early on. But I think you have to like and again, I Elon is not my favorite representative of the river right, even if you were such a conservatives. You know, someone like Jay Bonicharia, who was an early Stanford professor who was skeptical from the COVID lockdown stuff, now named director of the n I h like he is someone who I would personally like rather get a beer with or something. But Elon's the obvious choice. I'm not going to deny him his good year.

two hundred and fifty, I forget what it was. Then that means you all of a sudden are playing for very high stakes relatively amount of ships that you have, and so requires hitting some big hands early and then

being aggressive and winning some coin flips. Being aware of how the dynamics change in terms of we've talked about ICM on this show before with the independence goals, independent model, the goals to win money if you have it, not not just maximize your first place chances, right, And so I had to be I had a medium sized stack, and I had to be a little bit cautious for parts of the tournament, which is kind of which is

kind of no fun. But that's that's you know, I'm plan booker to win money, not to not to make friends and influence people. Well maybe that too. So we were a little bit idiot times. I'm wound up getting quite a few pay jumps to thirteenth place.

then my partner's in town. You're in town, can go get like a nice dinner somewhere and have relaxed night in Vegas, and so like, I think there is something where like increasing your variants a little bit in the early stage is where you get a big stack or not is a good life strategy. And also in this tournament you kind of need a big stack or else you're just or else you're just. I mean, the blinds increase so fast that you're kind of have to play

very defensively or get very lucky. And so I think it's actually worth in like these one day events. It's not a slow structure. It's worth kind of saying I'm gonna ether have a big stack, or go get some go to a show or something funny.

dollar event for me. So that one I managed to sneak by with only two bullets and I bubbled bubbling once again for people who don't know, is I busted very very late in the night, basically when we were about to reach day two and the money. So that was not fun, and that was you know, that was just a cooler hand. And I started the Prime, which is the eleven hundred dollar event yesterday, and I ended up busting. You can only rebuy once a day, so i busted both of my bullets yesterday and I'm going

to play again today. As soon as we finish recording our podcast, I'll make my way to the wind to see unit where we can both try to find a bit bag.

including entry to the free roll. I drew a fucking hat, Nate, A hat, yeah, And I had to be like, I'm sorry, you can keep the hat.

that's true of life in general. Right, when things are going well, you're like, yeah, this is good, this is how life should be. But you do go through periods when should hits the fan, when things do not go as well as planned. But I hope I turn it around and that some of your three k you know, success rumps off on me so that I do not have to then go and play the prime yet again, because this is a one K event that's very worth playing the maximount of times since it's probably the largest

one K event of the year. So it's exciting. It's an exciting series. I'm looking forward to the rest and I'm looking forward to running a little bit better, and I hope both of us do. Let's take a break and then let's take a listener question and talk about bilingualism. We had a listener named Ed who had a question about language learning. So should you learn a second language or not? And he maintains that as a primary English speaker, the ev for learning a second language is hugely negative,

that it's a time suck. English is common. There's no obvious second language to learn that is better than any others, you know. He talks about Spanish, Amandarin, that they're both commonly spoken, but how often will he go to a place where he'll only have that and no one to

broker communications, doubly so with internet translation. So yeah, he just wants to know, is are there situations that make it marginally positive for a not for a native English speaker, assuming you're not living with bilingual parents and getting your second language as a free.

It helps you appreciate it more, It helps you get a different experience, and you will, you know, I like going off the beaten path, right like I like going to places that are kind of in in the back alleys and like the local hidden places where oftentimes people don't speak English. And I think that I think that you just you gain a lot from life for being

able to speak the language. So I disagree with that, but that's a matter of you know, opinion, right, And I don't want to be like an obnoxious tourus because if you think about it, basically everyone else in the world is bilingual and they've learned English to help the idiot Americans who refused to learn a second language, Like, if you meet someone from the Netherlands, they're going to speak English. If you meet someone from France, they're going

to speak English. And you know they they I think are a lot richer for it because they have acquired that second language. And I think that it's just it's great to be able to do it as well. But if we talk about the research, there are actually a ton of benefits for your brain for for learning more languages that actually I was wondering just before we get into that, do you have kind of do you have other languages and kind of what's your just high level take on this.

original terms or translate more. But yeah, apart from apart from that very limited basis, no, I look, I am sympathetic to the research you're setting for a couple of reasons, right. One is, I do think that like if you look at like large language models, they suggest that like any given language, whether it's English or Spanish, or French or Russian, or whether it's computer language or mathematical language, is like an incomplete representation of like the kind of implicit to

sound pretentious implicit vector space of human thought. Yeah, and so having a wider like literal vocabulary that's not just English based and interesting. I mean, the analogy I sometimes make is like there are poker concepts that are hard to translate if you haven't specifically played poker. Right, The notion that like if you're indifferent between two decisions, that

like small factors make a difference. I mean it's kind of legible in English, but like, but yeah, you know, and sometimes I'm thinking a lot about poker, like programming or things like that. It feels like it's improving some other types of cognitive recognition, where if I'm really deep in like doing some static coding or something, it's hard to know. I mean, the question is kind of what are the realistic trade offs? I mean, maybe if you did learn

programming language, maybe you did learn a craft deeply. I you know, I think there is a lot of metaphors in art and literature that I think are probably somewhat parallel to language. Of course, you can read some of those texts earlier easier if you have. If you have, but yeah, I don't know. I like, where are you making a big better or a small bet? Right? Like should I do in my spare time take do a lingos? So if we're at the EPT Paris next year, I can kind of make half sentences or not right or

shout to go all in. I mean, where do you line up there?

I think so. One of the things you mentioned, I think there is a lot of work on which is that our views of the world really are expanded by having the proper vocabulary for it, right Like being able to express your thoughts, emotions, kind of having the words for things actually helps you, you know, figure out what they are, helps you think more rationally, more logically, make better decisions, and they're you know, sometimes I have a Russian word for something that doesn't exist in English, and

it's a nuance. It's a distinction that I wouldn't otherwise have. And we know that this is true of like just physical perception of the world, right You people who have who are artists, who have larger palette of colors and know all the different hues, they actually are able to distinguish more colors when you give them kind of a

color wheel. Where someone might be like, oh I see red and green, they actually see more colors, right, Like, their visual experience is different because they know what the words are, and different languages have different words for things, and I think that's really important. I think that that's actually really cool. Like I love these learning learning kind of even languages I don't know, learning words to express certain concepts, certain states, you know, certain parts of the world.

But there are also other benefits beyond that. So first, cognitive control, which is executive control, which is really important, is better in bilinguals. So all of those cognitive functions tend to be enhanced by having kind of the control to switch between languages. Right, having all these different things co exist in your mind, especially if you learn it young. But right now, let's not talk about that, because that's not what the question is. Right. He actually tries to

exclude people who had it as a freebie. So like Russian for me is a freebie, but English is not. I actually grew up modelingual just speaking Russian. I learned English in school when I was already you know, when I was five years old, so it wasn't quite a freebie, but I was still a little kid. So let's just call it a freebie. And then the other language.

a lot of fun. But the other thing that I think that our listener would be very interested in knowing is that it seems like people who speak more languages actually age a lot better and their brains are protected a lot longer and more strongly from dementia and cognitive decline.

So on average, people who are bilingual or or more but let's just say bilingual, if they experience signs of cognitive decline over four years later than people who aren't, that's huge, right, Like, think about that, Like.

These are really really hard things to study. So we have a good sense that this that this might matter, and we know that you know with like with dementia, where you where you actually see Alzheimer's where you can see kind of the plaques, et cetera. And then you can just see like when did people you know, after

they die, like when did they start exhibiting signs? You end up seeing that people who are bilingual exhibit signs much later, so they're able to kind of compensate, right, because you have different parts of your brain, you're able to compensate for the loss in a much better way. And I think that that's really interesting. Oftentimes there's a

lot of clinical evidence and it's quite quite interesting. But when you have a stroke, you know when when something goes really wrong in your brain, oftentimes people who are bilingual switchlan like you forget one language but you retain the other somehow. It's really cool. Yeah, there's some really really cool stuff where your brain is much more flexible and you have much more cognitive capacity to deal with

bad shit happening. And I think that that's something that everyone should want, right, Like you want to think and be sharper and have kind of those reserves for as long as possible, so to me, it's just an absolute no brainer for no pun intended for a lot of reasons. But I think that all of these different areas of research are interesting, Maria.