How Trump Won

a peak of nine percent. I guess it was an early twenty twenty two, then I think you would have probably said, Okay, I understand why Biden might lose or success or his successor might lose even to Donald Trump. Right when you have a global backlash to immigration to the point where even famously immigrant friendly Canada Justin Trudeau, who's very unpopular, is announcing cuts to legal immigration in Canada country with frankly, plenty of space and plenty of

tolerance for immigrants. Then you have a substantial rise in unwonted arrivals on the southern border, and that can be an issue. And Joe Biden decided he wanted to be president until he was eighty six, a terrible idea from the start, which culminated in an embarrassing spectacle of a debate in which, you know, frankly, I became worried that the president of the United States was not capable of

carrying out his duties. And that had been a fact that was denied by lots of people who were Democratic partisans who couldn't because these things are all quite obvious. Right, I'm very pro immigrant. I'm probably not as bothered by that as some other people, But like inflation is just an empirical fact that you see every time you go to the grocery store or drive past the gas station. Right, and the fact that Biden was old and infirm mentally

potentially or at least came across that way. Maybe coincidentally, he was extremely lucive and sober in private moments, but every time he appeared in public, every other time he wasn't. So these conditions plus the fact that we have lots of empirical evidence that, like globally, it's been a really have time for incumbents, you know, and the fact that Democrats message was a little bit tired the third time that people say vote for us or the country gets it.

Democracy ends, people stop believing it, even if there's more than a grain of truth in it. I mean, I think we're gonna have Actually when I irony is that, like the fact that this election was not particularly close means that we're not going to have a contested election. I guess Harris took a while frankly to concede. But this is Trump's last election, presumably Democrats is it, Well, I don't know. I think there is some how to put this.

If Trump's gonna win, conditional on that, I think there is some good in it being a relatively decisive, undisputed win where he'll probably also win the popular vie vote, and then in four years he'll be gone and in two years we'll have a midterm where Democrats they might win the House this year still, but they'll be in a strong position against I'm sure a Trump who has overreached and will be very unpopular to retake the House. The Senate's a longer shot. They'll but they're going to

have to have a real reconciliation. It's not the marginal stuff that matters. And you know, maybe it will make Trump a little more content and more trying. Now I'm not kidding, howy, maybe more trying to govern. For the plurality of a popular vote, he's going to win. He may even win a majority. We should say, there's a lot of voteleft in California, in places like that, so I don't think it's out of the question that Harris

can win the popular vote. But it could also be Trump plus two or something like that.

of people he admires. He loves power, he loves himself, and he loves his cult, and he loves kind of his adoring fans, and he loves saying outlandas shit like he gets off on it. You know, I don't see him. I hope I'm wrong, by the way, Like I don't want to be right here, but I don't see him toning down. I don't see him moderating. He has flat out said that he is going to basically operate as close to a dictatorship as he wants. That he wants to, you know, jail his enemies and do this and do that.

And I think we'd be well served to actually listen to the words coming out of his mouth, because he is telling us exactly.

And by the way, I've never met Trump, but I'm willing to bet that he's incredibly charismatic and he has some sort of kind of intuitive appeal if you if you spend time with him, because otherwise this is like very difficult to understand. I'm sure he has magnetic energy and that you know that that's kind of part of

all of this. But what I wanted to what I also wanted to say was in terms of kind of why he won, I think all of the reasons that you stated are absolutely spot on, and I would just add to that that I wouldn't underestimate how much people hate women like I actually think that this is part

of it. This is why part of the reason why Hillary Clinton lost in twenty sixteen, and one of the reasons why this is kind of the you know, when you were saying that Biden is shoulders a lot of blame for not stepping aside earlier, Like he put us in a position where he put us, he put the Democratic Party in a position where Kamala Harris was kind of the only choice. And I think it was a really bad mistake to run a female against Trump a second time. And I think that people underestimate how much

that mattered. I don't think Biden would have won, by the way, like I think you mightn't absolutely needed to go, but he needed to go sooner so that we could have had a primary and so that there were choices other than Kamala Harris. Because psychologically speaking, I think it was a horrible mistake to run a female candidate against Donald Trump.

didn't really have a second act. She had this period that got Democrats very excited. And it's very weird because like conservatives are not good at coming up with the strongest intellectual hygiene version of their argument, right, they'll say things that are in the wrong way, the unapproved way. I just think if you believe in democracy, you have to have some respect for the fact that fifty one percent of Americans probably call the fifty ish forty nine

point seven ish or something voted for Donald Trump. Including By the way, where we live, Uh, you live part time, I live mostly full time enough. I have to pay New York City taxes in New York City, where they were huge cans. I mean working on an article on this this morning in Queens. Yeah, Queen's New York. Donald Trump got thirty eight percent of the vote. It's double what he got in twenty two he got nineteen point nine percent. I mean no, I.

And I hope that they understand that because I think that some of the vote, you know, you've got the Hispanic men, like that's you know, the the immigration, the economy, very real issues that they don't understand that. I think Democrats might actually be better for them than Republicans. But then you also have you know, within the Democratic Party, I think there were major missteps as well.

coincided with a a rough period for Harris. And the polls actually where she had her convention, things looked on the up and up and then and then doesn't get that much press coverage, but Kennedy endorses Trump, and and and you know, all of a sudden, Harris is pulling worse than she had before the convention. So, you know, if that makes it a point, it probably isn't. No one point election probably comes down to needing a two point ish swing. But I guess, I mean, I think

we've had this kind of difference in perspectives before. But like I am more willing to tolerate or credit like an inarticulate or poorly articulated moral feeling you know what I mean. I that Like, I mean, I don't get excised about like immigration and s but like it's the notion that like things shifted far to the left and that elites like you and I got a little bit drunk on their power, right, I mean, you know, one thing it wasn't wasn't one of the twenty most important

factors in the election. But like, you know, like the student lone relief bill benefits basically wealthy people, including a lot of like law school graduates and things like that, instead of like the working class right literally benefits only people who went to college. And that's Democrats attempt at like populism in that country where most people don't go to college. And by the way, more women than men go to college. And this was an election where kind

of revenge of the men. I agree about that part, and like, and I don't know, I mean it's a stale critique, but the notion that like kind of liberals are living in a bubble and that they're kind of I don't know, I you know, obviously if you followed my work, like I kind of became disillusioned with the way that I thought expertise was weaponized for political purposes during COVID, and that a lot of what passed republic Health advice was just like trying to say Orange Man

bad Or or declare which team you're on. And I don't know. And I voted for Harris. I voted for Harris, like I said on the earlier show, on the Working Family's line is just a little minor protest to constitute party system. So this is not the outcome I wanted. But like, I understand why people voted for Trump, and I don't buy the notion that the only reason was

because that the will was pulled over their eyes. I mean, maybe it was about Trump in particular, right, Like I agree with the part that, like he will not deliver on some of the things he promises. I mean, even on economic growth. I think tariffs are very damaging. And and you know, Elon Musk going on Joe Rogan and

saying it will be the less election of Trump. I mean, just that's fucking gross, right, there's no kind of warrant to that claim, and Trump's disrespect for the rule of law and January sixth, But like, but like you know, I mean a friend of the podcast, Jeff Mauer, who writes a block. He's like, it's not quite the boy who called wolf, because Trump is a wolf, but it's people seeing everything is a wolf, and maybe just focusing on the the one wolf, the really bad thing that

wolf did you know? January sixth And the cronyism, which, by the way, I mean, Harris played it about and Democrats played it about as badly as you can when it comes to like like if you're going to have the richest man in the world turn against you, and you know, maybe Elon benefited Trump in various ways, maybe not,

we can debate that. Then at least do some fucking populist shit, you know what I mean, or at least say that like all these Silicon Valley and they kind of just played it in a very in a very weird way where they seem to regret like offending Silicon Valley, but they didn't take advantage of the fact that, like Silicon Valley is not very popular, Elon Musk is more

popular than the average Lolicon Valley magnate. But like, but the message of they retreated to the Biden message that had been losing the whole time, and like they're gonna lose popular wrote by one point set of four points, because like that's the penalty for being eighty one years old. But I don't know, I don't quite I don't quite get what they thought was happening.

And so I think that, you know, I don't disagree with you that there are very real issues that Democrats need to address right about you know, the discontent and why I think that where we So I still fully maintain that there is will pulled over people's eyes and that Donald Trump is a con artist because he's not going to deliver on what he says. But I think that we need to figure out, you know, why were

they susceptible? Right? Why are people susceptible? To con artists, and you're become more susceptible when there's transitions, social change, uncertainty, where bad things are happening to you, where bad shit's going down right, where you're losing money, bad economic times, all of these things existential threats. That's when con artists can sweep in. And I think that that's kind of that's the thing that ties what you're saying, Nate, to

what I'm saying, right. I think that Democrats have been ignoring a lot of those reasons for too long. Right, Why was over half of the population susceptible to this message?

And those are very real issues that you know, make people psychologically susceptible to charismatic leaders right to people who can really kind of galvanize those feelings of discos tend and then sell them the version of the world that they want to see, right, a version where they are empowered, where they get their own back, where they become kind of the protagonists again instead of people who feel like they're marginalized. And I think that that's the dynamic that

we see happening. So I think that that kind of squares the things that you and I are talking about, would kind would you agree with that way of looking at it.

it looks like Trump gained the most ground. I mean, I can't like help but see some irony in the fact that like a now i' when it's not like a fucking conservative podcast for thirty seconds. Right, But like the Democrats like hyper attention on racial identity, it's most like white people, you know. And it's like, I think a lot of people who are not like white, super college educated people think like this is just weird, right,

why are they so obsessed with this shit? And actually, we want to integrate, right, We want to integrate into society. Maybe we're first generation or second generation or whatever, right, and we don't want to like be cordoned off into like racial identity groups. And it's just it's just it's has to be one of the most electorally unappealing messages in the history of the United States, because like it's not it's not the majority, right, it's one thing. It's

a majority, and you demonize the minority. Right, But like woke white people or woke any people are a pretty small minority. And the fact that if you're not on board with their entire agenda, if you're or if you're like me on on the COVIDT you're like, yeah, vaccine's good. Lockdowns went too far, Masks, we can you know, probably minor either way, do what you want to do, right, Like the fact that you're seeing as a fucking heretic for like stating in this majority position, most people felt

like vaccines good. Uh, lockdowns went too far, masks do it to be polite? Probably doesn't matter that. I mean, it's just I don't know. I mean, you're you can't have a message that says if you're not in this narrow circle on all people. And Trump was the one who went on these weird fucking bro podcasts and went and tried to get votes that weren't his and tried to get the crypto people and did a you know, rally with MODI was at in twenty sixteen, right, and like,

I'm on your side Indian Americans. It's so crude, But you don't actually get that from Democrats saying I'm on your side, right, I'm fighting for you against the elie. I mean, I guess because they are the elites. I mean there's like that's a non hypocritical I mean it is hypocritical. I'll take that time. I mean, because Trump is an elite and it's always been just truly.

So this is where we are, and I think that it is important to note this, and it's important to try to understand why Democrats have lost so much of the Hispanic but why they've lost some of the Asian vote, why they're losing a lot of these votes that they should be winning because theoretically they should be better for them. And so I think this is just an issue for two years down the line, four years down the line. These are things that the party has to grapple with.

Let's talk a little bit about the polls and about whether you think that Donald Trump was once again underestimated, even though pollsters tried very very hard not to commit that error. What do you think? And I'm also actually quite curious about We talked about the Seltzer poll on Monday, so I'm quite curious about your take on that as well.

very normal. And the thing is when you have like, uh, things took close to fifty to fifty, then shifting everything two and a half points to Trump goes from you know, the swing states being split to Trump winning all seven, which you probably will the other way. It's Harris Went's all six. I mean, clearly it's a very tough cycle for the and Seltzer style of we're just going to trust the raw data and we're not going to do a lot of waiting and a lot of turnout modeling. Right, Yeah, look,

it's the short version. Is like the idea that like it was a bad election for polling is kind of like wrong on the surface, but kind of true on some deeper level. Right, the extent to which Poles had an okay here by the metrics that you used to officially judge them, and there were plenty of poles to

clear that showed a result exactly like this. Right, We're not lacking impolsters, includinghigh quality posters who like had Trump winning these swing states, had Trump even winning the popular vote. I mean, the New York Times last poll had the

popular vote in Trump's hands. In the last NBC News poll had the popular vote tied, which will be about right, right, maybe it's a win for national poll but this is actually not so far from the polls, but like it's bad for the pure sense that we're gonna go out and collect public opinion and and not do a lot of waiting and massaging. And I don't know, I mean, look at the end, I think there was a lot of hurting in the polls and a lot of hedging, and I think Antseelser still had a lot of guts

to like not second to that. And part of the beauty of polling averages that you collected diversity of opinions. But like, you know, it's what I worry about, and a lot of things in society, including the polling, is that like there's not really this kind of ground truth anymore. Everyone is kind of indexing on everyone else, like and like, what happened is that the modal outcome is that you get closer to the mark, Like if Polsters had not hurted,

it would have been more of a surprise. But what happens is that when something really big happens, I mean in a statistical way, you get you don't get this bell curve distribution that occurs from like normal statistical phenomenon

where you're taking a random sample of something right. Instead you get a dispute with wide fat tails where actually, most of time you kind of are pretty good, right, but then there are catastrophic nonlinear misses and shifts every now and then, and maybe the next shift will be that the Gretchen Whitmer Jos Shapiro ticket, or maybe it won't be something like that you know, is two points behind.

I know, the fuck that Giope no money will be I mean, look, Democrats are probably set up pretty good for twenty twenty eight, you know, I mean, Trump will probably be unpopular and probably overreach or worse in a lot of ways, and it will be he's old, you know, I mean, Democrats at a good bench and they'll have a fresh start.

to be an exceptionally close election. And even though it looks like Trump is sweeping, he as you point out, is sweeping by small percentages, right, So it is within those polling errors. So do you think that the polls should just posters should keep going as they've been going, or do adjustments need to be made in kind of the new climate to how we look at them?

the paint is dry. I just think the techniques they're applying like I want to see a fucking poll that I don't know, Pretacher was always going to say Trump plus one right or tie.

I mean, there are elements of the story everywhere. There are a lot of poles that did show Trump losing ground among our gaining ground among Latino voters and among blackboot Like why did the why was the Latino thing underestimated but the black vote overestimated? You know, I think in general, polsters and to also, you know, have more consideration for people who are not black or white or Latino.

That's a growing segment of the population that's influential in some states, and they get tossed into lumped into non white or something, right, And you know, I mean that's a little minor thing. I mean, I don't know. I mean, you do have the fact that like in the elections, when Trump has not been on the ballot. The polls were fine, The Poles were pretty good in twenty eighteen and twenty twenty two. They underestimate Democrats in twenty twelve, and so I think Poles are going to be hoping

it was just a Trump thing. And look, eventually people will move their methodologies enough where they will have some cycle eventually where they underestimate Democrats. I don't know which one it will be. Yeah, I mean, it's not great. We'll be right back after this message.

when they do. You know, look, I mean it is also true that if poles become less reliable, then it's not that your gut becomes more reliable, but it's that it becomes more reliable relative to a declining indicator. You know what I mean, because an arguments. It's never quite that like your gut tells you literally nothing. It's that like you formerly have this kind of like scientific way to do better than your gut and now maybe you know, poles kind of reflect cut anyway, there's like not even

this like clear distinction about it. And you know, I don't know, I don't know. I think it was I think if you look at like the history, I think prediction markets need a couple more good cycles. But I mean they got they got Look give credit where it's give credit where's due. The French whale's wealthier man today. I hope he comes to the win Las Vegas and December employees in some tournaments.

are right and which are wrong. So the gut sometimes tells us the right thing and sometimes the wrong thing, but we just have no fucking clue. So I think that that's really really important, which is why we need data, which is why we need kind of these external sources where you know, in a in a tie break, you can kind of look at your gut, especially if it's a thing where you're an expert in right, where you might not have conscious access to why your gut is

saying something. But it's not actually a gut feeling, it's just expertise, right, It's the fact that you have pattern recognition, because this is something that you're very good at and

that you have correctly identified many many times before. Unfortunately, the elections is absolutely not that, because we have, as you say, an election every four years, we simply do not have the experience, We don't have the feedback, and so I would just I would very much caution against kind of using your gut to try to come to pronouncements, especially because when you're also in an emotional situation, your gut tends to be much more incorrect, right because you

have there are things that are clouding your judgment, there are things that are making you act in one way or another. So I truly hope that we are able to be in a situation where we have external data ways that we can make sure that our polling, you know, does not if it deteriorates, that it then becomes better again, and that you know, things like prediction markets end up

being good. Even though I know, and you've written about this extensively, that when it comes to big events like you know, the elections or the super Bowl, the super bowls that we have more frequently, prediction markets are obviously not the same as when it's when you have less money, right, less on money, less less emotional money on the line. So I think that that's uh really important.

do better in the early vote. And then you get the election day vote and it gets a little redder, and then it was kind of consistently every you know, except I mean New York in California might actually have more of a red shift. And then like there are a few a few of the crunchy plays. You know, main looks pretty good for Democrats. Colorado, right, the really white states with a lot all of the Colorado was

a little bit more diverse. But like, yeah, I mean there are these pockets, but like very few, very few pockets. I mean kind of what happened is that, like I don't know if Harris actually gained ground among white voters like some poles said she would, she lost some ground. Even over this, she saw some ground of bumble black voters. Not that much, although if you look at Eckel, I mean, look at the fucking Bronx. Let me look at the Bronx,

which is obviously Hispanic and black. Trump got twenty seven percent of the vote in the Bronx. That's do you know? How about you got in twenty twelve? Now I don't eight percent. It's fucking tripled three point five x in twelve years.

Will what will happen in the House. I think that these are things that are actually quite important for Trump's mindset and for how he kind of sweeps into office and what his first orders of business are going to be.

the prediction markets have shifted GP. Now it's competitive. I mean, but the kind of most likely scenario is this tenuous GOP majority where it's Republican probably, I mean, I don't know the exact numbers, right, but like, but the Freedom Caucus we have a narrow GP majority. It's not very functional. So that's a beat up point. The US House is

now where the action is in politics. Certainly if Democrats win it, which is still a possibility, but like it's you know, either that or like a relatively narrow Republican majority. That's the range, like and like and if that happens then then yeah, I mean that's where the action is. The Senate is not going to be with probably fifty three ish Republican senators, it's not going to be a check on Trump's power appreciably, but the House in a

weird way might be. And then you have to think Democrats are pretty clear favorites to take back the House in twenty twenty six.

So let's leave it at that, Biden, you know, why don't you, why don't you step aside and let the first woman be president? So sunny before before we leave, though, what are you going to be doing for the rest of the day.