Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice In this episode of Probable Causation: Oeindrila Dube talks about a cognitive behavioral training program for police. This episode was first posted in April 2024. “ A Cognitive View of Policing ” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago " by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Sh...
Jan 13, 2026•51 min•Ep. 165
Vijetha Koppa talks about Lethality Assessment Programs used by police in domestic violence incidents. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Does the Certainty of Arrest Reduce Domestic Violence? Evidence from Mandatory and Recommended Arrest Laws " by Radha Iyengar. " Revisiting the Effect of Warrantless Domestic Violence Arrest Laws on Intimate Partner Homicides " by Yoo Mi Chin and Scott Cunningham. " Deterrence or Backlash? Arrests and the Dynamics of Domestic Violence " by Sofia Amar...
Dec 16, 2025•1 hr 3 min•Ep. 164
Peter Blair talks about occupational licenses as information about criminal records. “ Job Market Signaling through Occupational Licensing ” by Peter Q. Blair and Bobby W. Chung. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ The Prevalence and Effects of Occupational Licensing " by Morris M. Kleiner and Alan B. Krueger. “ Analyzing the Extent and Influence of Occupational Licensing on the Labor Market " by Morris M. Kleiner and Alan B. Krueger. “ A Welfare Analysis of Occupational Licensing in U....
Nov 18, 2025•44 min•Ep. 163
Joseph Doyle talks about improving foster care outcomes. “ Effects of Enhanced Legal Aid in Child Welfare: Evidence from a Randomized Trial of Mi Abogado ” by Ryan Cooper, Joseph J. Doyle, and Andrés Hojman. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ The Effects of Legal Representation on Tenant Outcomes in Housing Court: Evidence from New York City’s Universal Access Program ” by Michael T. Cassidy and Janet Currie. " Better Together? A Field Experiment on Human-Algorithm Interaction in Child...
Oct 21, 2025•37 min•Ep. 162
Barry Friedman talks with Jens Ludwig about his book: Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence.
Sep 23, 2025•1 hr•Ep. 161
Elin Colmsjö talks about how health shocks affect criminal behavior. “ Breaking Bad: How Health Shocks Prompt Crime ” by Steffen Andersen, Elin Colmsjö, Gianpaolo Parise, and Kim Peijnenburg. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Participation in illegitimate activities: A theoretical and empirical investigation " by Isaac Ehrlich. “ Long-term and spillover effects of health shocks on employment and income ” by Pilar García-Gómez, Hans Van Kippersluis, Owen O’Donnell, and Eddy Van Doorsla...
Aug 26, 2025•51 min•Ep. 160
Sekou Keita talks about how media policies that limit information reported about criminal offenders can unintentionally increase bias against the group they're trying to protect. “ The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration ” by Sekou Kenta, Thomas Renault, and Jérôme Valette. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Anti-Muslim voting and media coverage of immigrant crimes " by Mathieu Couttenier, Sophie Hatte, Mathias Thoenig, and Stepha...
Jul 29, 2025•53 min•Ep. 159
Nour Abdul-Razzak talks about her research on a cognitive behavioral therapy program called Choose to Change. “ Longer-term Impacts of a Youth Behavioral Science Intervention: Experimental Evidence from Chicago ” by Nour Abdul-Razzak, Brandon Domash, Kelly Hallberg, and Cristobal Pinto Poehls. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Scarcity: Why having too little means so much by Sendhil Mullainathan and Eldar Shafir. “ Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and drop...
Jul 01, 2025•1 hr 8 min•Ep. 158
Crystal Yang talks about her research on the accreditation of jail-based health care. “ The Hidden Health Care Crisis Behind Bars: A Randomized Trial to Accredit U.S. Jails ” by Marcella Alsan and Crystal Yang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Impact of hospital accreditation on quality improvement in healthcare: A systematic review ” by Mohammad J. Alhawajreh, Audrey S. Paterson, and William J. Jackson. “ Improvement in quality of hospital care during accreditation: A nationwide ste...
Jun 03, 2025•1 hr 3 min•Ep. 157
Steve Mello talks the long-term financial impacts of small criminal justice fines. “ Fines and Financial Wellbeing ” by Steven Mello. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Report on the economic well-being of U.S. households in 2017 " by Jeff Larrimore, Alex Durante, Kimberly Kreiss, Christina Park, and Claudia Sahm. " Criminalizing poverty: The consequences of court fees in a randomized experiment " by Devah Pager, Rebecca Goldstein, Helen Ho, and Bruce Western. " The Government Revenue,...
May 06, 2025•37 min•Ep. 156
Rachel Nesbit talks about the effects of mandating mental health treatment for probationers. “ The Role of Mandated Mental Health Treatment in the Criminal Justice System ” by Rachel Nesbit. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Calgary Diversion Program: A Community-Based Alternative to Incarceration for Mentally Ill Offenders ” by Craig Mitton, Liz Simpson, Leslie Gardner, Fran Barnes, and Gerald McDougall. “ Mental Health Treatment and Criminal Justice Outcomes ” by Richard G. Frank an...
Apr 08, 2025•47 min•Ep. 155
Peter Hull talks about the effects of a jail-based education program called IGNITE. “ 'Something Works' in U.S. Jails: Misconduct and Recidivism Effects of the IGNITE Program ” by Marcella Alsan, Arkey Barnett, Peter Hull, and Crystal Yang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ What Works? Questions and Answers about Prison Reform ” by Robert Martinson. “ Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment ” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. “ Thinking, Fast ...
Mar 11, 2025•53 min•Ep. 154
Abi Adams talks about economic abuse as it relates to intimate partner violence. “ The Dynamics of Abusive Relationships ” by Abi Adams, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Motherhood and Violence " by Gabriela Deschamps. " Female empowerment and male backlash: Experimental evidence from India " by Claire Cullen, Sarthak Joshi, Joseph Vecci, and Julia Talbot-Jones. " The Unintended Impacts of an Intimate Partner Violence Prevention Program:...
Feb 11, 2025•50 min•Ep. 153
Alex Albright talks about money bail and the effects of bail reform. “No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program” by Alex Albright. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Tripping through Hoops: The Effect of Violating Compulsory Government Procedures” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho. “The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang. “D...
Jan 14, 2025•52 min•Ep. 152
Roman Rivera talks about the effects of electronic monitoring for US pretrial defendants. “ Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcomes ” by Roman Rivera. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges " by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang. “ Criminal Recidivism after Prison and Electronic Monitoring ” by Rafael Di Tella and ...
Dec 17, 2024•59 min•Ep. 151
Aurélie Ouss talks about how changing who pays for incarceration affects sentencing decisions. “ Misaligned incentives and the scale of incarceration in the United States ” by Aurélie Ouss. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: The Collapse of American Criminal Justice by William J. Stuntz. " The rise in the disability rolls and the decline in unemployment " by David H. Autor and Mark G. Duggan. " Incentives to provide local public goods: fiscal federalism, Russian style " by Ekaterina Zhur...
Nov 19, 2024•47 min•Ep. 150
Anjali Adukia talks about how using restorative justice practices in schools affects student behavior. “ From Retributive to Restorative: An Alternative Approach to Justice in Schools ” by Anjali Adukia, Benjamin Feigenberg, and Fatemeh Momeni. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Breaking Schools’ Rules: A Statewide Study of How School Discipline Relates to Students’ Success and Juvenile Justice Involvement " by Tony Fabelo, Michael D. Thompson, Martha Plotkin, Dottie Carmichael, Miner ...
Oct 22, 2024•45 min•Ep. 149
Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior. This episode was first posted in October 2019. "Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election" by Traci Burch "Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Pre...
Sep 24, 2024•44 min•Ep. 148
Jeff Weaver talks about the long-term effects of parental and sibling incarceration. This episode was first posted in July 2019. "The Effect of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Disrupted Childhoods: Children of Women in Prison” by Jane A. Siegal. “Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does it Affect Children?” By Stephen B. Billings. “Incarceration Spillovers in Criminal and...
Aug 27, 2024•1 hr 6 min•Ep. 147
Emma Rackstraw talks about how reality TV affects policing outcomes. “ When Reality TV Creates Reality: How ‘Copaganda’ Affects Police, Communities, and Viewers ” by Emma Rackstraw. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Arrest Decisions: What Works for the Officer? by Edith Linn " ‘No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection’: Media and Sentencing " by Arnaud Philippe and Aurélie Ouss. “ The Birth of a Nation: Media and Racial Hate " by Desmond Ang. " The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting "...
Jul 30, 2024•1 hr 7 min•Ep. 146
David Macdonald talks about the effects of truth-in-sentencing policies. “ Truth in Sentencing, Incentives and Recidivism ” by David Macdonald. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Police, prosecutors, criminals, and determinate sentencing: The truth about truth-in-sentencing laws ” by Joanna M. Shepherd. “ Responses to more severe punishment in the courtroom: Evidence from truth-in-sentencing laws " by Libor Dusek and Fusako Tsuchimoto. " Truthiness in punishment: The far reach of truth...
Jul 02, 2024•1 hr 12 min•Ep. 145
Ryan Sakoda talks about the effects of post-release supervision. “ Abolish or Reform? An Analysis of Post-Release Supervision ” by Ryan Sakoda. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Intensive Probation and Parole " by Joan Petersilia and Susan Turner. “ The Effects of Low-Intensity Supervision for Lower-Risk Probationers: Updated Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial ” by Geoffrey C. Barnes, Jordan M. Hyatt, Lindsay Ahlman, and Daniel Kent. “ An Experimental Evaluation of the Impact ...
Jun 04, 2024•1 hr 7 min•Ep. 144
Amanda Agan talks about how sealing criminal records affects employment. “ Can you Erase the Mark of a Criminal Record? Labor Market Impacts of Criminal Record Remediation ” by Amanda Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Alex Mas, and Crystal Yang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Probable Causation Episode 9: Michael Mueller-Smith “ Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment " by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr. Probable Causation Episode 8: Amanda Agan " ...
May 07, 2024•1 hr•Ep. 143
Oeindrila Dube talks about a cognitive behavioral training program for police. “ A Cognitive View of Policing ” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago " by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack. " Can You Build a Better Cop? " by Emily Owens, David Weisburd, Karen L. Amendola, and Geoff...
Apr 09, 2024•49 min•Ep. 142
Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. This episode was first posted in September 2020. "Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” by Malvina Bondy, Sefi Roth, and Lutz Sager. “The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on ...
Mar 12, 2024•43 min•Ep. 141
Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. This episode was first posted in January 2020. "Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.) Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preventing Failures to Appear in Court" by Brice Cook, Binta Zahra Diop, Alissa Fishbane, Jonathan Hayes,...
Feb 27, 2024•56 min•Ep. 140
Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague talk about the effects of Medicaid enrollment on recidivism. " In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid " by Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility " by Elisa Jacome. Probable Causation Episode 60: Elisa Jacome “ The consequences of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act for police arrests ” by Jessic...
Feb 13, 2024•59 min•Ep. 139
William Arbour talks about how prison-based behavioral programs in Canada affect recidivism. " Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program " by William Arbour. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago ” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack. “ Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cog...
Jan 30, 2024•54 min•Ep. 138
Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. This episode was first posted in June 2020. "How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum Sentencing” by David Bjerk. “The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick ...
Jan 16, 2024•45 min•Ep. 137
Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs. "Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller. "Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations" by David Card, Jochen Kluve, and Andrea Weber. "Active Labor Market Policies" by Bruno Crépon and Gerard ...
Jan 02, 2024•45 min•Ep. 136
