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Probable Causation

A show about law, economics, and crime. Hosted by Jennifer Doleac, economist and author of The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice.

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Episodes

Episode 101: Xinming Du on social media content and offline violence

Xinming Du talks about how aggressive posts on social media affect offline violence. “Symptom or Culprit? Social Media, Air Pollution, and Violence” by Xinming Du. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Experimental Evidence of Massive-Scale Emotional Contagion Through Social Networks” by Adam Kramer, Jamie Guillory, and Jeffrey Hancock. “Social Media and Protest Participation: Evidence from Russia” by Ruben Enikolopov, Alexey Makarin, and Maria Petrova. “Fanning the Flames of Hate: Social ...

Dec 19, 202343 minEp. 135

Episode 100: Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho on renter protection policies

Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho talk about the effects of renter protection policies (including limits on landlords' use of criminal records) in Minneapolis. “The Impact of Renter Protection Policies on Housing Discrimination in Minneapolis” by Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Unintended Consequences of ‘Ban the Box’: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes when Criminal Histories are Hidden” by Jennifer Doleac and Benjamin Hansen. “Ban the ...

Dec 05, 202351 minEp. 134

Episode 99: Ben Feigenberg on class disparities in traffic stops

Ben Feigenberg talks about socioeconomic disparities in who police stop for traffic offenses. “Class Disparities and Discrimination in Traffic Stops and Searches” by Ben Feigenberg and Conrad Miller. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Would Eliminating Racial Disparities in Motor Vehicle Searches Have Efficiency Costs?” by Ben Feigenberg and Conrad Miller. “Smartphone Data Reveal Neighborhood-Level Racial Disparities in Police Presence” by M. Keith Chen, Katherine L. Christensen, Elicia...

Nov 21, 202333 minEp. 133

Episode 98: Evan Rose on community supervision

Evan Rose talks about community supervision, and the costs and benefits of incarceration as a consequence for breaking probation rules “Who Gets a Second Chance? Effectiveness and Equity in Supervision of Criminal Offenders” by Evan K. Rose OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Five Year Outcomes in a Randomized Trial of a Community-Based Multi-Agency Intensive Supervision Juvenile Probation Program” by Karen Hennigan, Kathy Kolnick, Tian Sivan Tian, Cheryl Maxson, and John Poplawski. “The...

Nov 07, 20231 hr 1 minEp. 132

Episode 67: David Phillips on mental health care for people released from jail (REBROADCAST)

David Phillips talks about connecting people released from jail with mental health care. This episode was first posted in February 2022. “Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans and David C. Phillips OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha Solomon. “Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility”...

Oct 24, 202347 minEp. 131

Episode 20: J.J. Prescott on sex offender registries (REBROADCAST)

J.J. Prescott talks about sex offender registries. This episode was first posted in January 2020. "Do Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws Affect Criminal Behavior?" by J.J. Prescott and Jonah E. Rockoff. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Legislation Targeting Sex Offenders: Are Recent Policies Effective in Reducing Rape? by Alissa R. Ackerman, Meghan Sacks and David F. Greenberg. The Iowa Sex Offender Registry and Recidivism by Geneva Adkins, David Huff, and Paul Stageberg. ...

Oct 10, 20231 hr 5 minEp. 130

Episode 36: Ellora Derenoncourt on the Great Migration and economic mobility (REBROADCAST)

Ellora Derenoncourt talks about how the Great Migration affected economic mobility. This episode was first posted in September 2020. "Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration" by Ellora Derenoncourt. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective" by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Maggie R. Jones, and Sonya R. Porter. "The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility I: Childhood Exp...

Sep 26, 202358 minEp. 129

Episode 60: Elisa Jácome on access to mental health care (REBROADCAST)

Elisa Jácome talks about how access to mental health care affects criminal behavior. This episode was first posted in November 2021. “Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Homeward: Life in the Year After Prison” by Bruce Western. “Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mul...

Sep 12, 202327 minEp. 128

Episode 47: Greg Midgette on the 24/7 Sobriety program (REBROADCAST)

Greg Midgette talks about the effects of 24/7 Sobriety — a program for defendants with alcohol-related offenses, based on swift-certain-fair principles. This episode was first posted in March 2021. “Criminal Deterrence: Evidence from an Individual‐Level Analysis of 24/7 Sobriety” by Beau Kilmer and Greg Midgette. *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment” by Mark A.R. Kleiman. "The Efficacy of the Rio Hondo DUI Court: A 2-Y...

Aug 15, 202349 minEp. 127

Episode 43: Elizabeth Linos on police recruiting (REBROADCAST)

Elizabeth Linos talks about how to recruit more and different people to become police officers. This episode was first posted in January 2021. "More Than Public Service: A Field Experiment on Job Advertisements and Diversity in the Police" by Elizabeth Linos. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Behavioral Insights for Building the Police Force of Tomorrow" by Joanna Weill, Elizabeth Linos, Siddharth Mandava, Cecily Wallman-Stokes, and Jacob Appel. "Thick Red Tape and the Thin Blue Line: ...

Aug 01, 202334 minEp. 126

Episode 8: Amanda Agan on Ban the Box policies (REBROADCAST)

Amanda Agan talks about the effects of Ban the Box policies. This episode was first posted in July 2019. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employment" by Abigail Wozniak. "Deleting a Signal: Evidence from Pre-Employment Credit Checks" by Alexande...

Jul 18, 20231 hrEp. 125

Episode 97: Allison Stashko on prosecutor elections and police accountability

Allison Stashko talks about prosecutor elections and police accountability. “Prosecutor Elections and Police Killings” by Allison Stashko and Haritz Garro. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Collective Bargaining Rights and Police Misconduct: Evidence from Florida” by Dhammika Dharmapala, Richard...

Jul 04, 202343 minEp. 124

Episode 96: Andreas Kotsadam on jobs and intimate partner violence

Andreas Kotsadam talks about how giving women jobs affects intimate partner violence in Ethiopia. “Jobs and Intimate Partner Violence - Evidence from a Field Experiment in Ethiopia” by Andreas Kotsada and Espen Villanger. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Gender Wage Gap and Domestic Violenc...

Jun 20, 202351 minEp. 123

Episode 95: Marcella Alsan on fear and the social safety net

Marcella Alsan talks about how Secure Communities affected take-up of safety net programs. “Fear and the Safety Net: Evidence from Secure Communities” by Marcella Alsan and Crystal S. Yang. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Immigration Enforcement and Economic Resources of Children with Likely U...

Jun 06, 202340 minEp. 122

Episode 94: Jesse Bruhn on the effects of gangs in Chicago

Jesse Bruhn talks about the effects of gangs in Chicago. “Competition in the Black Market: Estimating the Causal Effect of Gangs in Chicago” by Jesse Bruhn. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago” by Monica Bhatt, Sar...

May 23, 202350 minEp. 121

Episode 93: Justin Holz on peer effects in police use of force

Justin Holz talks about peer effects in police use of force. “Peer Effects in Police Use of Force” by Justin E. Holz, Roman G. Rivera, and Bocar A. Ba. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force” by Chandon Adger, Mathew Ross, and CarlyWill Slo...

May 09, 202343 minEp. 120

Episode 92: Laura Khoury on the mental health effects of prison in Norway

Laura Khoury talks about the mental health effects of prison in Norway. “Prison, Mental Health, and Family Spillovers” by Manudeep Bhuller, Laura Khoury, and Katrine V. Løken. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Effect of Incarceration on Mortality ” by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeff...

Apr 25, 20231 hrEp. 119

Bonus episode: Joanna Schwartz on accountability for police misconduct

David Eil talks with Joanna Schwartz about her book, " Shielded: How the Police Became Untouchable ." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work!...

Apr 18, 202359 minEp. 118

Episode 91: Allison Harris on registering returning citizens to vote

Allison Harris talks about increasing the civic engagement of people with felony convictions. "Registering Returning Citizens to Vote” by Jennifer Doleac, Laurel Eckhouse, Eric Foster-Moore, Allison Harris, Hannah Walker, and Ariel White. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Can Incarcerated Felons...

Apr 11, 202355 minEp. 117

Episode 90: Matthew Ross on police field training

Matthew Ross talks about how field training officers affect police use of force. “The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force” by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “A Few Bad Apples? Racial Bias in Policing” by Felipe Goncalves &a...

Mar 28, 202357 minEp. 116

Episode 89: Graeme Blair on community policing in the Global South

Graeme Blair talks about the effects of community policing in the Global South. “Community Policing Does Not Build Citizen Trust in Police or Reduce Crime in the Global South” by Graeme Blair, Jeremy M. Weinstein, Fotini Christia, Eric Arias, Emile Badran, Robert A. Blair, Ali Cheema, Thiemo Fetzer, Guy Grossman, Dotan Haim, Rebecca Hanson, Ali Hasanain, Ben Kachero, Dorothy Kronick, Benjamin Morse, Robert Muggah, Matthew Nanes, Tara Slough, Nico Ravanilla, Jacob N. Shapiro, Barbara Silva, Pedro...

Mar 14, 202343 minEp. 115

Episode 88: Sara Heller and Max Kapustin on reducing gun violence

Sara Heller and Max Kapustin talk about the effects of the READI program on gun violence in Chicago. “Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago” by Monica P. Bhatt, Sara B. Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand, and Christopher Blattman. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUS...

Feb 28, 202355 minEp. 114

Episode 87: Emily Nix on violence against women at work

Emily Nix talks about how violence against women at work affects the victims, perpetrators, and firms. “Violence Against Women at Work” by Abi Adams-Prassl, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Sexual Harassment and Gender Inequality in the Labor Marke...

Feb 14, 20231 hr 7 minEp. 113

Episode 7: Jeff Weaver on the effects of parental and sibling incarceration (REBROADCAST)

Jeff Weaver talks about the long-term effects of parental and sibling incarceration. This episode was first posted in July 2019. "The Effect of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Disrupt...

Jan 31, 20231 hr 6 minEp. 112

Episode 3: Analisa Packham on syringe exchange programs (REBROADCAST)

Analisa Packham talks about the effects of syringe exchange programs on HIV rates, opioid abuse, and crime. This episode was first posted in May 2019. "Are Syringe Exchange Programs Helpful or Harmful? New Evidence in the Wake of the Opioid Epidemic" by Analisa Packham. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS E...

Jan 17, 202355 minEp. 111

Episode 86: Elizabeth Luh on financial penalties

Elizabeth Luh talks about the effects of financial penalties in the criminal justice system. “The Impact of Financial Sanctions: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Driver Responsibility Fee Programs in Michigan and Texas” by Keith Finlay, Matthew Gross, Elizabeth Luh, and Michael Mueller-Smith. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER ...

Jan 03, 202342 minEp. 110

Episode 85: Sofia Amaral on reducing street harassment in India

Sofia Amaral talks about a police intervention in India that aims to reduce sexual harassment in public. “Sexual Harassment in Public Spheres and Police Patrolling: Experimental Evidence from Urban India” by Sofia Amaral, Girija Borker, Nathan Fiala, Anjani Kumar, Nishith Prakash, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. [Working paper available from the authors.] *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contr...

Dec 20, 202250 minEp. 109

Episode 84: Alex Albright on bail reform

Alex Albright talks about money bail and the effects of bail reform. “No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program” by Alex Albright. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Tripping through Hoops: The Effect of Violating Compulsory Government Procedures” by Natalia E...

Dec 06, 202252 minEp. 108

Episode 83: Kevin Wilson on DC’s 911 nurse triage line

Kevin Wilson talks about a new approach for handling non-emergency health calls to 911: a nurse triage line in Washington, DC. “Nurses in the 911 Loop Improve Care: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by Chrysanthi Hatzimasoura, Rebecca A. Johnson, Kevin H. Wilson, Robert P. Holman, Ryan T. Moore, and David Yokum. Minor correction: During this conversation, Kevin mentioned that nurses could book primary care appointments for callers. This is not quite accurate. Instead, nurses may refer callers to Fe...

Nov 22, 20221 hrEp. 107

Episode 82: Kirabo Jackson on the multiple dimensions of school quality

Kirabo Jackson talks about the multiple dimensions of school quality, and whether parents can tell which schools are better than others. “What is a Good School, and Can Parents Tell? Evidence on the Multidimensionality of School Output” by Diether Beuerman, C. Kirabo Jackson, Laia Navarro-Sola, and Francisco Pardo. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our...

Nov 08, 202239 minEp. 106
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