Today’s show is about what I consider the biggest mystery of the U.S. economy. Last year, economic experts predicted a recession in 2023 with more confidence than they’ve predicted any recession in decades. We ended up with what some people are calling immaculate disinflation: an economy with low unemployment, falling inflation, rising real wages, and narrowing inequality. Harvard economist Jason Furman joins the show to talk about why so many economists were so wrong and what their wrongness te...
Aug 08, 2023•37 min•Season 2Ep. 46
Less than 1 percent of college students attend Ivy League colleges and equally selective schools, like Stanford and Duke. But these schools have an outsize influence on American life. Practically every Supreme Court justice of the last 40 years, 25 percent of the U.S. Senate, and one in eight Fortune 500 CEOs went to these schools. A new study on their admissions programs finds that they are heavily biased toward children from rich families. For applicants with the same SAT score, kids from fami...
Aug 01, 2023•50 min•Season 2Ep. 45
Richard Rhodes, the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of 'The Making of the Atomic Bomb,' discusses the life of J. Robert Oppenheimer, the Manhattan Project, the history of nuclear weapons, and the new film on his life by Christopher Nolan. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Richard Rhodes Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. ...
Jul 25, 2023•57 min•Season 2Ep. 44
The trouble brewing in the media and entertainment industry has become one of the most interesting—and truly perplexing—business stories in the world. How does everything seem so bad at the same time? The domestic box office is still in a recession. Pay TV is a nightmare. Streaming is a money pit. And actors and writers are on strike. How did this happen? And could it get worse before it gets better? Today’s guest is Julia Alexander, director of strategy for Parrot Analytics and a writer with Pu...
Jul 19, 2023•1 hr 2 min•Season 2Ep. 43
By many measures, this is one of the best times to find a job in decades. And by many measures, Americans are locked in a state of extreme glumness about the country. Jordan Weissmann, Washington editor at Semafor, rejoins the show to talk about why the economy is much better than many Americans—and many economic commentators—think, and whether "Bidenomics" can fix what ails us. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find ...
Jul 11, 2023•57 min•Season 2Ep. 42
Calvin Newport is a computer science professor at Georgetown University and the author of, among other books, 'Deep Work' and 'A World Without Email.' At the heart of so much of Newport’s work is this incredibly rich mystery: Why hasn't the internet produced more geniuses? One possibility is that the productivity tools ironically inhibit our productivity. The average white-collar worker in marketing, advertising, finance, and media now spends up to 60 percent of the workweek engaged in electroni...
Jul 05, 2023•1 hr 3 min•Season 2Ep. 41
University of Chicago professor Paul Poast breaks down Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion, Vladimir Putin's weakness, Russia's military incompetence, and the long-term implications of Saturday's bizarre 36-hour rebellion. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Paul Poast Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/...
Jun 27, 2023•57 min•Season 2Ep. 40
Today’s episode is the first in a new miniseries about getting stuff done. This episode in particular is about NOT getting stuff done. I consider myself an exceptional procrastinator. There are many times when I sit down at my computer to accomplish one task—say, answer my email; write five paragraphs—where I’ll immediately get swept into a text conversation, which will lead to some snooping around ESPN, which will remind me I should check The Atlantic homepage, where I’ll open three articles in...
Jun 20, 2023•57 min•Season 2Ep. 39
Last year, there were 3,661,220 babies born in the U.S. That sounds like a lot. But historically speaking, it’s really not. It’s actually 15 percent below our peak in 2007. And it means America’s total fertility rate—the average number of babies a woman today is expected to have in her lifetime, based on current trends—is essentially stuck at its all-time record low. For decades, the U.S. birthrate has been below the so-called replacement level of 2.1. Today it’s around 1.6. Sometimes, I feel a ...
Jun 13, 2023•1 hr 5 min•Season 2Ep. 38
Today’s episode is about the state of men in America. Last week, the non-profit institute Equimondo published a report on the state of men and boys in America: “Many men—especially younger men—are socially disconnected, pessimistic about the future, and turning to online anger," they wrote. "They are facing higher rates of depressive symptoms, suicidal thoughts, and a sense of isolation, as seen in the agreement of 65 percent that 'no one really knows me well.'" One survey is one survey. It does...
Jun 06, 2023•53 min•Season 2Ep. 37
In May of this year, the Writers Guild of America went on strike. For weeks, TV and film writers have been walking in picket lines in Los Angeles and New York, and the strike threatens to bring TV and film development to a screeching halt. Historically, strikes both reflect history—the ever-changing business models behind the media we consume—and change history. The 2007-8 strike famously accelerated the rise of reality TV. Today’s guest is Matt Belloni, the host of the Ringer podcast 'The Town'...
May 30, 2023•50 min•Season 2Ep. 36
In the last five years, high school sports participation has fallen for the first time on record. The number of boys playing high school sports today is lower than in any year since 2007. While travel leagues are thriving, local leagues are flailing—for football, soccer, baseball, basketball ... you name it. And this is happening, of course, in a decade when young people are spending less time in the physical world, less time with their friends, less time moving around, and more time sitting hun...
May 23, 2023•45 min•Season 2Ep. 35
Today’s episode is about how artificial intelligence will change the future of war. First, we have Brian Schimpf, the CEO of Anduril, a military technology company that builds AI programs for the Department of Defense. Next we have the Atlantic author Ross Andersen on how to prevent AI from blowing up the world. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson G...
May 16, 2023•1 hr 28 min•Season 2Ep. 34
Today’s episode is about a narrow question and a broad question. The narrow question is: Is ice cream secretly good for you? The broader question is about the nature of uncertainty and truth, how diet science actually works, and how bias plays a role in scientific discovery. Our guest is public health historian and journalist David Johns, who has reported on ice cream science for The Atlantic. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]...
May 09, 2023•43 min•Season 2Ep. 33
The world is engaged in a multitrillion-dollar project to decarbonize the economy to slow or reverse climate change. But what exactly does that mean? How optimistic should we be that we can pull this off? And what new technology do we need to build to make it happen? This is a mega-pod with two guests. Ramez Naam is a writer, speaker, and one of the best technologists I know at explaining the progress we’re making toward building a clean-energy economy. And Vinod Khosla is one of the most famous...
May 02, 2023•1 hr 25 min•Season 2Ep. 32
I am fascinated by sleep and also—perhaps, relatedly—not very good at it. Like tens of millions of Americans, I've had trouble falling asleep and staying asleep for most of my life. I also know that sleep is the glue that holds together health—a fact that sometimes haunts me as I toss and turn at night. Behind the fitness and health fads, what's the truth about insomnia? How dangerous is it? When do we know when we have a problem? How is it different from sleep deprivation? What have we learned ...
Apr 25, 2023•1 hr 5 min•Season 2Ep. 31
Today’s episode is about the future of the American city. Many downtowns are "wounded renditions of their once-robust selves." Offices are empty. Commercial real estate is losing value, pulling down municipal tax revenue. Fewer commuters means less transit revenue. Fewer downtown shoppers means less downtown employment. This has led some economists to worry about an "urban doom loop." Dror Poleg, an author and adviser who writes about the future of cities, talks about the knock-on effects of urb...
Apr 18, 2023•1 hr 10 min•Season 2Ep. 30
Today’s episode is about guns, drugs, cars, and a big question: Why do Americans die so much younger than people in any other rich country? Before the 1990s, average life expectancy in the U.S. was not much different than it was in western Europe: Germany, France, the U.K. But since the 1990s, something very strange and clearly bad has happened. Americans got much richer than Europeans. But American life spans have fallen behind those of Europeans so dramatically that today, the typical American...
Apr 11, 2023•55 min•Season 2Ep. 29
Derek talks to ‘Semafor’ political reporter Dave Weigel about how the Trump indictment could reshape the election—or turn out to be a big ole nothing burger. But before that, Norman Eisen, a lawyer who served as cocounsel for the House Judiciary Committee during the first impeachment and trial of Donald Trump, argues that Alvin Bragg's case is much stronger than the conventional wisdom. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You c...
Apr 06, 2023•59 min•Season 2Ep. 28
Today, we go wading in the murky waters of 2023 wellness trends. We’re talking cold plunges, fitness trackers, and recovery scores. And on the more prosaic side, the real science of coffee and alcohol. Today’s guests are Brad Stulberg and Steve Magness. They are the cofounders of The Growth Equation, a multimedia platform dedicated to health, excellence, and well-being. They are authors of ‘Peak Performance,’ ‘Do Hard Things,’ and ‘The Practice of Groundedness.’ And for quite a while I have cons...
Apr 04, 2023•55 min•Season 2Ep. 27
Donald Trump has been indicted. But what do we actually know about the case against him? What will the charges be? Is there any legal precedent for the prosecution? What happens when he's arrested? Could he run for office from prison? How does this change the Republican presidential race? What about all those other investigations proceeding against Trump, in Georgia and D.C.? Is this indictment good for Donald Trump's presidential hopes in an underrated way or the beginning of a bigger downfall?...
Mar 31, 2023•26 min•Season 2Ep. 26
Today’s episode is about how we think about success—and how our high school and college systems might be teaching us the wrong lessons about achievement and personal progress. Our guest is Lisa Damour, a psychologist and the author of three New York Times bestsellers, including 'The Emotional Lives of Teenagers.' If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson ...
Mar 28, 2023•51 min•Season 2Ep. 25
Sometimes on this show, we talk about the news. This episode is about the diametric opposite of the news. It’s about thinking deeply about human history and trying to appreciate the awesome length of time and the finitude of our lives. It's an interview with Tim Urban, a blogger at the mind-expanding site Wait But Why, and the author of a new book What’s Our Problem: A Self-Help Book for Societies. If you don’t know Tim and his work, I would sum up his thing this way: Tim is a kind of alien. He ...
Mar 24, 2023•58 min•Season 2Ep. 24
Derek unpacks his thoughts about GPT-4 and what it means to be, possibly, at the dawn of a sea change in technology. Then, he talks to Charlie Warzel, staff writer at The Atlantic, about what GPT-4 is capable of, the most interesting ways people are using it, how it could change the way we work, and why some people think it will bring about the apocalypse. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tik...
Mar 21, 2023•1 hr 3 min•Season 2Ep. 23
Derek answers your burning questions in a special mailbag episode! If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Mar 17, 2023•41 min•Season 2Ep. 22
Derek welcomes back the economic roundtable of Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson, cohosts of the 'Animal Spirits' podcast, to debate who killed Silicon Valley Bank, how much we should blame the Fed, how much we should blame Silicon Valley venture capital firms, whether this will change the direction of monetary policy, and whether the U.S. has too many banks in the first place. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us ...
Mar 15, 2023•44 min•Season 2Ep. 21
RIP, SVB. America's 16th-largest bank was just destroyed by the largest bank run in U.S. history. To talk about what happened and what happens next, we have Liz Hoffman, business and finance editor at Semafor and the author of the book 'Crash Landing,' on the Fed’s response to the pandemic. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Liz Hoffman Prod...
Mar 13, 2023•41 min•Season 2Ep. 20
Under President Biden, the U.S. is pivoting toward what some people call “industrial policy”—that is, using the government to support key industries, like green energy manufacturing and the manufacture of advanced computer chips. There is a strong case against industrial policy in economics: It’s the idea that governments do not know better than markets when it comes to picking winners, and industrial policy just wastes money and distorts the economy. But there’s another view, which is that indu...
Mar 10, 2023•53 min•Season 2Ep. 19
Today’s episode is a long one: It’s about the debate over media coverage of COVID. Three years after the fateful March of 2020, when it feels like the world shut down for COVID, we are revisiting two of the most contentious debates in this space. No. 1: The lab leak hypothesis; which is the debate over the possibility that COVID originated at a laboratory in China and not, as the official story went, at a wet market in Wuhan. And no. 2: the mask debate. And why a seemingly simple question—do mas...
Mar 07, 2023•2 hr 37 min•Season 2Ep. 18
This is our second installment of happiness week on the Plain English podcast. On Tuesday, I spoke with the directors of the Harvard Study of Adult Development about what makes a good life, based on their 80-year longitudinal study. Today’s episode is about the phenomenon of rising teenage unhappiness. What's actually happening? Why is it happening? What theories make sense, and what theories don't? How can we fix this problem? Today's guest is Matthew Biel, the chief of child and adolescent psy...
Mar 03, 2023•57 min•Season 2Ep. 17
