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Patrick Boyle On Finance

Patrick Boyleonfinance.org
This podcast is all about quantitative finance and financial history. Subscribe to hear about financial markets, derivatives, and how investors use quantitative tools from statistics and corporate finance theory. Included are interviews with some of the most interesting thinkers in finance. Occasional longer form financial documentaries, open up fascinating elements of financial markets history. Patrick Boyle is a quantitative hedge fund manager, a university professor, and a former investment banker. To contact Patrick visit http://onfinance.org Find Patrick on YouTube at: https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickBoyleOnFinance DISCLAIMER:This podcast is not affiliated with any financial institution. The information provided is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Those seeking investment advice should seek out a registered professional in their home jurisdiction and confirm their credentials on your national regulator's website. Patrick Boyle is not responsible for any investment actions taken by viewers and his content should not be used as a basis for investment or other financial decisions.
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Episodes

Panic In the Car Market - Americans Rush to Beat Tariffs!

Americans have ben rushing to buy new cars as President Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported cars and car parts remains in effect despite the deferral of other country-based taxes that were announced last week. Analysts are predicting a drop in vehicle sales for 2025, higher new and used car prices, and increased industry costs of more than $100 billion dollars. How will you be affected by Trump's new car tariffs? Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives F...

Apr 15, 202525 minSeason 5Ep. 15

How Trump’s Tariffs Will Transform Global Trade?

President Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April second were more severe than the market expected. On top of a 10 per cent universal minimum tariff, the new regime includes significantly higher tariffs for most major trading partners and brings US effective tariff rates to levels we have not seen since the early 1900s. How will Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs transform global trade? Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading ...

Apr 07, 202528 minSeason 5Ep. 14

Is Elon Musk's Business Empire Collapsing?

Elon Musk once described competition for his businesses as non-existent, but today the two businesses that underpin his corporate empire - Tesla and SpaceX, are facing more and more competition. In todays video we examine if Elon Musk's business empire is collapsing? Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel: Patreon: https://www.patreo...

Mar 30, 202521 minSeason 5Ep. 13

Why Are Birthrates Plummeting Worldwide?

Birth rates are plummeting worldwide – and while this might seem like nothing new – as it has been the case in developed countries for quite some time. The thing that is interesting is that we are seeing declining birth rates everywhere and the standard explanations that you have heard in the past don’t really hold up. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways...

Mar 25, 202525 minSeason 5Ep. 12

Saudi Arabia's Megaproject Disaster!

Saudi Arabia's Neom megaprojects are running into major financial problems according to The Wall Street Journal.After more than $50 billion dollars has been spent the fantasy city has collided with reality.Costs have soared, delays are constant, and the capital expenditure estimates to complete the projects by 2080 have ballooned to $8.8 trillion dollars, which is over 25 times the kingdom's annual budget.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For Th...

Mar 17, 202519 minSeason 5Ep. 11

Germany's Historic Debt Deal!

European markets rallied sharply this week as German borrowing costs soared after the country’s new leaders announced a historic deal to loosen its “debt brake” rule to boost spending on defense.The interest rate on German government bonds saw their biggest daily increase since October 1998.The Dax 30 index, which tracks the largest German companies, rose by 3.5% as stock prices also leapt in other European markets amid hopes that a massive boost in European spending on defense and infrastructur...

Mar 10, 202520 minSeason 5Ep. 10

Why Are Politicians So Old?

The average American is 39 years old - which is half the age of the sitting president - Donald Trump. When Ronald Reagan was inaugurated at 69 years old, he became the oldest person to have ever served as president. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are even older and are now - the two oldest men to ever be inaugurated as president. The average ages in the House and Senate at 58 and 64, are significantly older than the average American. A word often used to describe the nation’s governing class is “ger...

Mar 04, 202518 minSeason 5Ep. 9

Argentina's Memecoin Disaster

Argentina’s president Javier Milei has been rocked by a scandal over his promotion of a memecoin called $LIBRA which soared in value before collapsing last week, triggering lawsuits and calls for impeachment.Buyers of the cryptocurrency accused the coin’s creators of - what is known as a “rug pull” scheme, a type of crypto pump and dump scheme - where the promoters draw in buyers, only to stop trading and make off with the money raised from token sales.The same team who launched the Argentina li...

Feb 24, 202529 minSeason 5Ep. 8

The Dumbest Megaprojects!

From skyscrapers in the middle of nowhere, to man-made islands that are sinking into the sea. And from abandoned buildings to foolish transportation infrastructure - let's look at the world's most useless megaprojects. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel: Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https:...

Feb 18, 202528 minSeason 5Ep. 7

Trump’s Tariff Wars - What Happens Next?

Last weekend Donald Trump announced 25 per cent tariffs on most imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10 per cent levy on imports from China. Canadian oil was hit at a lower rate of 10 per cent. The duties will take effect from Tuesday. Just days later these tariffs were suspended.Trump said the actions were in response to the “major threat” posed by the flow of migrants and drugs into the US across its borders with Canada and Mexico. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor...

Feb 10, 202527 minSeason 5Ep. 6

DeepSeek - How a Chinese AI Startup Shook Silicon Valley

On Monday, over a trillion dollars was wiped off the US stock market due to the appearance of a Chinese artificial intelligence start-up DeepSeek. The release of a new reasoning model, known as R1, led investors to question US dominance in tech, their expectations around future AI capex while also raising the prospect that China might beat Silicon Valley at its own game. The new DeepSeek model can “reason” to solve complex problems and performs as well as the AI software from US tech giants like...

Feb 03, 202531 minSeason 5Ep. 5

The South Sea Bubble

1720 was a year of two bubbles and a plague - The Mississippi Company in France –and the South Sea Bubble in England were the first large scale financial bubbles on record. In September 1720 - when the bubbles burst, England and France were plunged into economic and political crisis's. These were amongst the first examples of financial boom and bust cycles and were the events that gave rise to the use of the term bubble to describe a spectacular market failure. Patrick's Books: Statistics For Th...

Jan 30, 202542 minSeason 5Ep. 4

The Economic Toll of The Los Angeles Wildfires

The Los Angeles wildfires have destroyed more than 12,000 structures and at least 24 people have died with more unaccounted for as multiple wildfires, fueled by severe drought conditions and strong winds, continue to burn. Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs estimate that the destruction will cost insurers as much as $30 billion dollars and after accounting for non-insured damages, the total costs will balloon to $40 billion. The ongoing fires, already appear to be the costliest wildfire event in Cali...

Jan 19, 202520 minSeason 5Ep. 3

How Would Mass Deportations Affect the US Economy?

Donald Trump has promised to conduct “the largest deportation effort in American history,” no matter what it costs—but the price tag may be bigger than expected. In today's video we look at a history of US border control and the economic costs of deporting more than six percent of the US workforce while the US workforce ages. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn...

Jan 15, 202529 minSeason 5Ep. 2

Is Electrification Killing the Auto Industry?

For years, the auto industry has been hyping the transition to electric vehicles with optimistic sales forecasts for electric models and huge growth projections. Investors pumped up valuations for automakers, based on their visions for an electric future. Now the hype is dwindling, and companies are again cheering consumer choice. Automakers from Ford Motor and General Motors to Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen and Jaguar are scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle plans. Tesla’s annual vehicle...

Jan 08, 202526 minSeason 5Ep. 1

2024 - The Financial Year in Review

Here's a look back on some of the most impactful events in markets during 2024. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel Patreon: / patrickboyleonfinance Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickb... Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.... Busine...

Jan 01, 202521 minSeason 4Ep. 53

Swamped by Rules! - Which Ones Should Go?

There is a long history of regulation and deregulation where big scandals provide the catalyst for new rules, and then the realization that the rules are possibly excessive has caused them to be rolled back. In finance the 1933 Glass-Steagall provisions came in the wake of the 1929 Crash. The 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act was a reaction to the Enron and WorldCom scandals. Dodd-Frank was enacted in 2010 after the 2008 financial crisis. Good regulation can bring all sorts of benefits, but excessive regu...

Dec 22, 202426 minSeason 4Ep. 52

Javier Milei One Year In!

Javier Milei has been in office for one year having taken over an economy on the brink of collapse. Milei managed to cut the monthly inflation rate from 26 per cent before he took office to 2.7 per cent in October. The Argentine peso has strengthened significantly against the black-market dollar over the past six months and Argentina’s sovereign bond prices have roughly tripled. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://...

Dec 16, 202421 minSeason 4Ep. 51

Can Trump's Tariffs Work?

In today's video we examine Donald Trump's plan to rebalance global trade using tariffs, try to understand the issues with international trade that have been pushing the United States and other countries in this protectionist direction, and if tariffs can be expected to improve the situation or make things worse. We’ll discuss whether Trump could impose his tariffs unilaterally on his first day in office and whether the mere threat of tariffs could be used to improve Americas bargaining power? S...

Dec 09, 202424 minSeason 4Ep. 50

How Much of a Good Thing is Too Much? Victor Haghani Interview

Victor Haghani started his career at Salomon Brothers and shortly after became a managing director in the bond arbitrage group run by John Meriwether. He was a founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management and established its London office. The failure of LTCM was a life-changing experience that led him to question and revise much of the way he thought about the economy, markets, and investing. His new book - The Missing Billionaires is a personal finance book that examines why there are so f...

Dec 05, 20241 hr 25 minSeason 4Ep. 49

Yotta Bank & The Problem with Fintech!

Marc Andreessen appeared on the Joe Rogan podcast this week arguing that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) should be shut down as it debanks conservatives. In today's video we use the example of the finfluencer promoted fintech bank Yotta - look at its ties to another fintech - synapse to try to understand if the CFPB should be defunded or if savers need to be protected from fintech firms that are mostly unregulated. Subscribe to Patrick's interview channel here: https://www.youtub...

Dec 01, 202422 minSeason 4Ep. 48

Can Elon Musk Cut Two Trillion Dollars From the US Budget?

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are heading up Donald Trump's newly created Department of Government Efficiency which plans to take aim at wasteful government spending. On the campaign Elon Musk claimed that he could cut two trillion dollars in government spending. What would those cuts look like and how likely is Elon Musk to succeed? Does Elon Musk have too many conflicts of interest to do this job? Subscribe to Patrick's interview channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PBoyleInterviews Patrick'...

Nov 25, 202428 minSeason 4Ep. 47

The Great Depression - An Economic History

The Great Depression was the worst and deepest peacetime economic shock in the history of the industrialized world. It brought about profound social change and was a significant factor in the drift towards the Second World War. The depth of suffering during the Depression years is hard for many of us to imagine today. More than 1 in five children in the city were suffering from malnutrition by 1932, and the Great Depression was only getting going at that point, it lasted seven more years. So, wh...

Nov 18, 202452 minSeason 4Ep. 46

The Truth About the US Economy!

The US Economy has been booming in recent years and most Americans are doing better than they were a year ago, unemployment is lower, wages are growing, and inflation is declining. It’s not just the one percent either, the statistics show that Americans across ages and social classes are doing really well. While people should be feeling these tangible economic improvements, surveys show that Americans are the most pessimistic they have been about the economy in thirty years. TikTokers have coine...

Nov 10, 202420 minSeason 4Ep. 45

Deindustrialization in Europe?

There has been a lot of press on how Europe is facing deindustrialization, where manufacturing employment is in terminal decline and the continent can no longer compete due to high energy prices, economic competition, and other factors. In today's video we try to work out if Europe is doomed and should pivot towards tourism - becoming the worlds museum. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF Corporate ...

Nov 03, 202427 minSeason 4Ep. 44

Big Tech is Going Nuclear!

Big tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon and Google are driving the nuclear revival, as to get new power-hungry data centers built in the US and Europe, they have to solve the problem of power generation. Their net zero pledges mean that the sources of power that they have pledged to use have to be low carbon, and they have already invested heavily in wind and solar, but their data centers still need a steady base load, so for big tech, investing in nuclear energy makes a lot of sense. Patrick'...

Oct 27, 202424 minSeason 4Ep. 43

What Went Wrong With California?

Since the gold rush, California has been the go-to state for start-up companies. In recent years the Golden State has been losing the competition with neighboring states. More than 500 businesses have left California since 2005. Among these businesses were Fortune 500 companies and the economic impact from these departing companies is likely to be severe. California’s tax laws and prohibitive regulations are the leading causes of the massive corporate exodus. The business-friendly conditions, op...

Oct 20, 202427 minSeason 4Ep. 42

The FBI had A Crypto Token!

The FBI created their own crypto token called NexFundAI as part of an investigation into price manipulation in crypto markets. As a result of the investigation, the SEC charged three “so-called market makers” and nine individuals for allegedly engaging in schemes to boost the prices of certain crypto assets. The Department of Justice charged 18 people and entities for “widespread fraud and manipulation” in crypto markets. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0...

Oct 12, 202420 minSeason 4Ep. 41

The Collapse of The Luxury Watch Market - Why Have Secondary Market Prices Fallen So Much?

Send us a textPrices for the most in-demand luxury watches have been in freefall on the secondary market since March 2022 as a pandemic-era rally fizzled. Are luxury watches a good investment, how do watch prices perform in the long run?Patrick's BooksStatistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCSupport The ChannelPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleO...

Oct 07, 202430 min

Crypto Has Bought The 2024 Election!

Send us a textAccording to the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen, almost half of all corporate money contributed to this year's US election campaigns has come from crypto backers and politicians are bending to their will with promises to reduce regulation and consumer protections.Why do Trump and Kamala Harris suddenly support crypto? In today's video we follow the money.Patrick's BooksStatistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:...

Oct 02, 202424 min
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