Introducing Downballot Counts

a senior reporter, Greg Dureau. On this episode of down Ballot Counts, we'll break down the upcoming primaries in North Carolina, a super Tuesday state set for a ton of action this year. We'll spotlight a campaign ad running on TV halfway across the country that caught our attention, and later you'll hear my interview with Casey Phillips, a Republican ad maker who just completed a fascinating documentary on how some US elections that end in ties are decided. You may

not believe it. We are there with ninety nine percent of the precincts counted. Number of other key down ballot races. This is a very dramatic turn. We will have to learn. The House will be an order. Chair requests and Members Claire the Isle take seats cease audible conversation from Washington. This is Bloomberg Government's down ballot counts. Okay, it's time for Jerro's gem, Greg. What do you got? Thank you, Kyle.

Jero's jim for this week is thirty. That's the number of Democrats in the US House representatives from congressional districts that President Trump carried in the twenty sixteen election. You'll be hearing this number a lot on down ballot counts because it is that block of Democrats from Republican leaning or politically competitive districts who will determine whether Democrats keep

their majority in the House in the November election. Right now, there are two hundred and thirty two Democrats, one hundred ninety seven Republicans, one independent, and five vacancies in the House. So Republicans need a net gain of about twenty seats for a majority. So those thirty Democrats from districts that voted for Trump are top targets for Republicans because, as we discussed on last week's program, most districts now vote

for the same party for president and for Congress. Most of the twenty nine of those thirty who are seeking reelection or serving their first term, so they haven't become as politically ensconced in their districts as veteran members have. But these younger members, these more junior members, Kyle, are raising a lot of campaign money, and as we noted, as we've noted before, they won't be easy to defeat. So thirty you're Jiro's gym of the week, that's right.

And not only are they raising a lot of money, they're raising a lot more money than the Republican opponents. So definitely that's the group of Democrats we're gonna be watching the closest as the year goes on. All right, up next, we're heading to the tar Heel State. This is Bloomberg government's down ballid counts. A court ordered new congressional map, a rash of retirements, and three competitive statewide contests for governor, senator, and president have placed in North

Carolina center stage in twenty twenty. The curtain will rise on the drama on March third, Super Tuesday, when most of the attention will be on all the Democratic presidential primaries, Greg, what should we be watching for down ballot? Well, down ballot, you have a competitive governor's race which will probably be between the incumbent Democratic governor Roy Cooper and the Republican Lieutenant governor Dan Force, So listeners need to look out

for that race as well. But there's also a high profile marquee US Senate race in North Carolina this year, for the seat that one term Republican incumbent Tom Tillis is defending. You have five Democrats running in the March three primary, including cal Cunningham, a former state senator and military veteran, who is the preferred candidate of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of Senate Democrats. But you also have Erica Smith running in this Democratic primary.

She's a current state senator who's getting some unusual help from a superpack that has Republican ties, Kyle, and is being funded with two point four million dollars trying to

boost Smith in the Democratic primary against Cunningham. I think what's really interesting about this race, Kyle, is that it really underscores how Republicans would prefer to face Erica Smith, who's running is a more traditional liberal or progressive candidate than Cal Cunningham, who is the preferred candidate of Senate Democratic leaders. Yeah, and Republicans see Cunningham and sort of

the same profile as Dan McCready. He's, of course, you remember, but he's a guy who ran in the ninth Congressional District special election as well as in twenty eighteen the election that never got decided, and he did really really well. Still came up short, but it's the kind of profile that you could see doing well statewide in North Carolina, which is very much a purple state, if not still

slightly Republican leading, it certainly is a purple state. I looked at some of the statistics from past North Carolina elections, and in fourteen consecutive Senate general elections North Carolina, the winner has received less than fifty five percent of the vote. That's a pretty impressive streak that really underscores how competitive North Carolina is. In the twenty sixteen presidential election, President Trump carried the state by fewer than four percentage points.

Maybe it's closer in the twenty twenty election. We'll have to wait and see. But Tom tell us, certainly, if we were to rank Senate races or at least make a top echelon of Senate elections we think are going to be competitive in November. Tom Tellis has to be in that top block. I think, yeah, both parties would agree with you on that. Now, there's also a few open house seats we're watching closely on Super Tuesday. That's right.

You have three Republican three Republicans retiring from Congress in this coming election, two of them because of a redistricting map that was implemented by the state legislature under court order. Basically, the North Carolina courts said that the current Republican drawn map, which had elected ten Republicans and three Democrats, was you know, it had problems as a jerrymander and it probably would have been found unconstitutional under state law. So the legislature

redrew the map. It gave the Democrats the an advantage in two more districts, North Carolina's second Congressional district, around Rawleigh, North Carolina's sixth Congressional district, and around Iansborough. You have two Republican incumbents retiring there and it looks like the Democrats are going to take those seats over The big question is who emerges out of those Democratic primaries those districts.

The second you have Deborah Ross, a former state legislator who ran against Richard Burr, the Republican senator, in twenty sixteen, lost by a narrow margin, so she has some name recognition advantages there. In the sixth district, the Greensboro area district where Mark Walker, Republican, is retiring, you have a

multi candidate Democratic primary there. That includes Kathy Manning, a lawyer and well funded candidate who ran for Congress in twenty eighteen against Republican Ted Budd in North Carolina's thirteenth district. Lost that race narrowly, but she too has some name recognition advantages. She may be able to use her advantage

in the March three primary. Yeah, and while that new map pushed some Republican incumbents out, people like Ted Budd got a much nicer, more comfortable district to run in this time, so he's one of the happy ones coming out of this. Of course, Democrats are also happy because this map essentially gives them two extra seats, a two seat cushion as they defend their majority this year. That's right, And the third district I'd like to mention is North

Carolina is eleventh district. This is the western part of the state. This is the district that Republican Mark Meadows is leaving open to retire. You have twelve Republicans running in that district in that primary on March the third, which really underscores how Republican leaning the district is, how much pent up ambition there probably is to succeed Mark Meadows. So we'll have to see who emerges from that primary.

Twelve candidates running, you have a state center there, you have another candidate who's been backed by the Senate Conservative Action Superpack, So crowded primary there. And one thing about the North Carolina primaries is that you need thirty percent of the vote to avoid or runoff, so not fifty percent plus one like you've seen in some other states. So you could still win a primary in advance of the general election with a plarity of the vote. You

just need thirty percent to advance. But North Carolina's eleventh, that's a district to watch. That's right, and Obama won the state in two thousand and eight, and of course if a Democrat replicates that feat, it would obviously help everyone else running down ballot in the party, so we will see how competitive it actually gets, and we'll leave it there because up next there is our weekly look at a recent campaign ad that stood out to us.

Let's take a listen. We have a woman who's fantastic, who's been a fan of ours right from the beginning. K Granger, I'm proud to be endorsed by President Trump. Together we're rebuilding our military, securing the border, and restoring America's rightful place in the world. I'm K Granger, and I approved this message because there's still plenty of work

President Trump and I need to do. Thank you. K. That was an ad from k Granger, a twelve term congresswoman from Texas's twelfth district and the top Republican on the House Appropriations Committee. Greg This isn't the kind of district we'd usually pay much attention to since it leans so heavily Republican, but she's facing a legitimate primary challenge

from the right in just a few weeks. Yeah, and Kay Granger in Congress, she's never faced a serious challenger in the primary until this year, when she's been opposed by Chris Putnam, a technology businessman running is a more loyal conservative and with the support of some outside money, some outside super pac s. Kyle. So Granger has this ad now that positions her as an unswerving ally the president.

And now that may not seem all that noteworthy for a Republican to run a pro Trump ad, but Granger rebuked Trump a few times during the twenty sixteen presidential election, and in fact called on him to step aside as the Republican nominee after the release of the so called Axis Hollywood tape. So this ad, really, I think underscores how much President Trump has been has come to dominate

the Republican Party with very little descent within its ranks. Yeah, and the Club for Growth is one of those outside groups running ads against her. They've pledged to spend around two million dollars and they have a radio ad up right now saying she trash talk the president. And I'd also note that Granger was the spaw serve a Republican resolution last week that saw DOO rebuke Speaker Nancy Pelosi for her actions during the State of the Union address.

You can read more about Granger's role in that in her primary campaign in a story, our colleague Emily Wilkins wrote, February to sixth. You can find it on the Bloomberg Government website at about dot be gov dot com slash news. It's timely story because that primary Kyle is just three weeks away. Yep. One of many races to watch on Super Tuesday. All right after the break, you'll hear my interview with Republican ad maker turned documentarian Casey Phillips from Washington.

This is Bloomberg Government's down ballid Counts. Not every election is decided at the ballot box. Some that end in ties actually come down to games of chance. I sat down with Casey Phillips, a Republican ad maker who just finished a documentary called Win, Lose, or Draw Straws on all the crazy ways that elections can end coin flips, games of poker. You won't even believe it, but we sat down in his Alexandria studio to talk all about it.

When we first started looking at this, I mean I had a friend growing up whose dad won a race for judge in a game of poker, and I thought, you know, that's not standard, So I never really thought much about it. And then you know, going through you know, working in politics, traveling the country, I saw another mayor's race that was decided by names out of a hat, and I thought, oh, that's really odd. And then once once I saw Hillary and Bernie flip coins, I was

already kind of started working on this documentary. And you know, having Hillary what was reported seven of seven coin flips, you know, I thought, yeah, that's you know, this is weird. It's always been a part of caucuses, and it probably always will be a part of caucuses. What's also fascinating though, is then forty states, it can actually decide the election. So if you have two people running for state Senate, Congress, governor and they get the same amount of votes, it

comes down to a game of chance. And there was a big one after twenty sixteen in Virginia, right, huge decided the majority of one of the houses in the legislature. Yeah, the House of Delegates was decided. The Speaker of the House of Virginia was determined on names out of a bowl. It's just always it's amazing to think that with all the year vote matters and everyone get involved, at the end of the day, it can literally be determined by names out of a hat or a coin. And so

that's what the movie's about. But we've had everything from you know, state legislator, state legislature to presidential races being affected by these things. It's amazing. Yeah, all right, Well, I want to back up briefly because you and I actually met after the twenty twelve elections. I wanted to write a profile and an up and coming consultant, and everyone I talked to and asked about they kept pointing

me your direction. When you go into making a TV AD for a client, What exactly are you What exactly is your goal? What goes into and making a good TV ad is honestly, for me, it's effort. I see a lot of work in this business that I consider it to be. You know, I don't want to say lazy, but I want to say that they could have done

better had they just given it another ten percent. Right. So, I think that a big part of being able to produce really quality content is not taking too many clients, spending time with those clients, listening to them, understanding the both the candidate you're trying to sell and the people you're trying to sell it to, and at that point, you know, for me, it just kind of flows out cool. Well, and so now all of a sudden, you are a documentary film director. How did this project and your decision

to go for it really come about? Well? So, and this is I'm a weird person. I mean just flat out weird. Anything that I like, I want to be able to know how to make. Yeah, I just kind of like to get my hands dirty, and that's actually the way my brain works best. And then I'm traveling the country with a film crew, right Like, if I'm not working on a documentary, I would feel like I

was leaving something on the table. So being able to produce this for pennies of what it would cost some a studio to go out and do it, and then having to be political, I have the access to, you know, not only Republican consultants, but Democratic consultants that do just what we do. You know, our lives are extremely similar. And I see them in the airport and say, hey, could you put me in touch with this person? And you know, usually usually they're more than happy to because

you know, it's kind of we're all doing the same thing. Yeah, you're flying around to film candidates for their commercials and their states. I don't want to give it too much away, but what was the most surprising tie breaking mechanism you came across in your travels. Well, we're still trying to we're still trying to sort out if it's true or not. But there is an article in the Anchorage Daily News, I believe it is that tells us about a tiebreaker

during territorial elections. So that would have been, you know, prior to becoming a state, where two candidates tied for the state Senate and they had a whiskey drink off at the local saloon in town. So it was one shot glass, one bottle, back and forth, back and forth until somebody fell off their chair and whoever didn't had to go to the capitol and vote. So yeah, I mean, a phenomenal story. You know, we've been researching it forever and haven't been able to really nail down who they were,

but it's a news story. So and I saw a woman in the trailer who mentioned an arm wrestling competition potentially, So they come up with all kinds of ideas, And I mean in Kentucky specifically, it's against the law to duel, so you can't kill the other person. And Colorado you get to choose whichever sort of game of chance, you want. So two guys running for a city council seat did kind of spin off of Rock Paper Scissors called Ninja Bear Cowboy, And so you stand back to back, you

turn and it's like Ninja beats Cowboy. Cowboy beats Bear, Bear beats Ninja. So so that's how they select. They selected themselves there. So this documentary doesn't simply document the reality of these tie breaking votes and elections. What does it say and what are you hoping it sparks in

terms of a conversation in America? Well, I mean, the reason that I was so careful to make sure that it was nonpartisan was because I don't, you know, there's so much partisanship out there right now, and so much of what I do as partisan and not helping that problem.

So one of the things that I wanted to do was to make a a you know, people in my generation regularly tell even tell me then they know I work in the business, it doesn't matter, I don't matter, And so I thought, what a better way to show people directly that their vote could have mattered than putting

two people who tied on screen. So any one vote either way, you know, makes a difference not only in that in that race, but in their legislature and the legislation coming out of it, and and in someone's life. And so for me, that was the you know, that's the message. But I try not to be too preachy about it, because they're interesting enough as they are. But if I'm screaming at you go vote, then it's not a movie. It's a PSA. So I want people to

take from the movie what they will. But I hope it's certain, you know, tells people in my generation or any generation that that they can that they can't count. All right, So what's next for the film? Where can our listeners, you know, watch this thing? So honestly, we're we're just waiting for a film festival to take a chance on us. We you know, we thought we had high hopes for sun Dance, but Taylor Swift just swooped in and took our spot. We thought we were good.

Hillary came in with a doc took that spot. So we're officially Sundance rejects. But we are submitted to about thirty festivals and we're waiting to hear back. As soon as we get a premiere. I'm gonna let everybody know. I can't wait to have everyone come out and watch it, and then you know, we'll try to figure out how to We have a sales agent now, so we figure out how to get it onto streaming services and time for for fall. Well, I'm really looking forward to seeing it.

You can learn more about the film at Drawstraws dot film and you can follow Casey on Twitter at Casey One. Casey. Thanks so much. This is Down Valley Counts. Now before we close the show, You've got a parting shot of trivia for you. It's trivia time on Down Ballot Counts. Each week I'll try to stump Kyle and you the

listeners with a political trivia question. But before I asked this week's question, let's review last week's question, and I asked how many US senators are seeking reelection in November in states that were won by the opposite party's presidential nominee in twenty sixteen. In other words, how many Republican senators are seeking reelection in states Hillary Clinton won and how many Democratic senators are seeking reelection in state's Donald Trump won. Add them together, Kyle, what do you have

for me? I've got four ding ding Ding that is correct, And can you name all four Republican and Democratic senators? Oh, that's tough, all right, put you on the spot. You don't have to do that, Kyle, I got it. Doug Jones, Cory Gardner, yes, yes, Susan Collins correct, and Gary Peters Gary Peters in Michigan. You got all four too, So really put you on the spot there by forcing you to name all four of them. You got them all right, of course, So well done on that. But let's see

if you are ready for this week's question. Bring it on, all right, you're on the hot seat. Here's this week's question. There are three states where both senators last names begin with the same letter of the alphabet. You don't have to name all three states, or even every senator, but just name me two of the states, Kyle and listeners, two of the three states where both senators last names begin with the same letter of the alphabet. I have

to say that I didn't invent this question. By heard it from a friend last week who heard it at a game he recently played, and I liked it so much I'm going to borrow it here for don ballot counts. I'm going to give Kyle and you the listeners plenty of time to think that over until next week, in fact, but if you can, you can shoot your answers anytime you want to begov podcast at begov dot com, or tweet the answer to the Bloomberg Government Twitter handle at

BOV and use the hashtag down Ballot Pod. We'll reveal the answer and ask a new question on next week's program. That's it for us today. The producer for down Ballot Counts is David Schultz and Rjjewel. You can follow us on Twitter at Kyle Triggstad and at Greg Duau, and be sure to check out all the great politics coverage on Bloomberg Government's website about dot bigov dot com. We'll talk to you next week. Hi there, I'm Amanda Icon,

co host of Talking Tax. Each week we dig into the biggest tax and financial accounting challenges and opportunities, from policy to on the ground realities. We bring you corporate leaders, accountants and industry insiders. You can find us wherever you get your podcasts. For more, check us out on news dot Bloomberg Tax dot com