After two consecutive years of 25 per cent plus returns, the S&P 500 index in the US is down 2.5 per cent this year as investors fret over tariffs. However, there’s always a bull market somewhere and right now, that seems to be in Europe. European shares are up ten per cent this year, led by German shares which have surged 15.6 per cent. That’s the best start to a year in at least a decade, but the question now is whether those gains will keep on coming.
Mar 10, 2025•6 min
This week's highlight will be the February inflation report in the US, with the University of Michigan survey also in focus amidst weakening confidence and rising inflation expectations. Developments on the tariff front will also have a big impact on market sentiment. On Monday, China is set to impose tariffs of up to 15% on various US imports, while the US set to impose steel and aluminium tariffs of 25% on the European Union from Wednesday. Canada will be in the spotlight too, with the governi...
Mar 08, 2025•19 min
Every once in a while, you hear talk of how much worse off you’d be if you’d missed the ten best days in a given period. It usually happens during a rough patch, in the hope it’ll calm investors down and ensure they stay the course rather than panicking and selling at precisely the wrong time. The numbers are always compelling, and it's admirable advice. However, there's one important point that is often missed.
Mar 03, 2025•7 min
Term deposit investors have had it pretty good in recent years, but that’s changing quickly and many savers are on borrowed time. Interest rates are headed lower, and those sitting comfortably on the sidelines should prepare for that. If they take too long, they’ll not only miss opportunities elsewhere but they’ll be facing a hefty fall in income.
Feb 25, 2025•5 min
The German election will be a highlight of the international week, with the first results due early Monday morning here in New Zealand. The key release in New Zealand will be the ANZ Business Outlook, due on Thursday. The Australasian earnings season continues this week, and it'll be another busy one with a raft of companies scheduled to report. It's a quieter week on the international earnings front, although Home Depot and Salesforce will release earnings results, as will NVIDIA.
Feb 22, 2025•15 min
We’re a month into President Trump's second term and there’s 47 more to go, which means investors need to make peace with a less predictable market backdrop and get on with it. While sitting on the sidelines for the next four years is one strategy, it’s unlikely to be a very good one. Don't forget, the S&P 500 increased 58 per cent during Trump’s first term despite plenty of twists and turns, and there’s every chance you’ll be rewarded for keeping your cool this time around too.
Feb 18, 2025•6 min•Season 1Ep. 246
This week’s economic highlight will be the global flash PMIs for February, which are due on Friday. Last month these pointed to a good start to year for the global economy, and we'll be watching for further improvements, particularly in Europe. There'll be plenty of action in this part of the world too. Another 50-basis point cut to the OCR is expected here in New Zealand on Wednesday, while we're also expecting the first rate cut of this cycle across the Tasman, which would be an important mile...
Feb 16, 2025•14 min•Season 1Ep. 245
The local reporting season begins this week, and we've got high hopes for a more optimistic tone. It’s been a very difficult couple of years for most businesses, but things are getting better. The period this reporting season will cover is close to the maximum pain point for our economy, but there are plenty of bright spots emerging. Investors should brace themselves for another batch of uninspiring results, while putting more emphasis on the encouraging comments we hope to hear about how this y...
Feb 11, 2025•5 min
Looking ahead, this week’s economic highlights will include the latest inflation report in the US, as well as the NFIB survey and the retail sales report for January. On the central banking front, investors will be watching the semi-annual testimonies by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors will also be watching for more tariff talk, after US President Donald Trump said he was planning r...
Feb 08, 2025•14 min
The OCR has fallen from its peak, but unemployment is up and it still feels like we're in recession. Meanwhile, the currency is in a slump and we're facing international challenges as tariffs threaten to derail the global growth story. Can we still expect the economy to recover, how long will we need to wait for lower mortgage rates to have an impact, and are there any bright spots on the horizon?
Feb 06, 2025•12 min
Fixed income can provide investors with a stable, reliable income stream for a modest level of risk. If you’re staring down the barrel of sliding term deposit income, it might be a great solution that’s worth a look. For most private investors, a mix of New Zealand government or local authority bonds, combined with investment-grade corporate bonds is the optimum approach. Subordinated and hybrid securities can be a useful complement, but make sure you understand the nature of these and keep your...
Feb 04, 2025•7 min
This week, the focus will be on President Trump's tariffs, how markets react and whether we see any retaliation from major US trading partners. Key economic releases in the US this week will include the jobs report, the ISM indices and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index. The global earnings season will be in focus again, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies due to report including Alphabet and Amazon. Here in New Zealand, the highlight will be the labour force report on We...
Feb 01, 2025•15 min
Over the last month or two the Wall Street gurus have firmed up their forecasts for where the S&P 500 will finish 2025. The majority have a year-end estimate of between 6400 or 6600, which implies a gain of 9-12 per cent this year. That’s close to the long-term average return from US shares, which is (somewhat ironically) why I think most strategists could turn out to be wide of the mark.
Jan 28, 2025•7 min
The last week of January will be a busy one, with central banks in focus as the Federal Reserve in the US and the European Central Bank are set to announce their latest monetary policy decisions. It'll be a holiday-shortened week across the Tasman with markets closed on Monday, while Wednesday's December inflation report might pave the way for a February RBA rate cut. A big week of international earnings releases also looms, with four of the Magnificent 7 set to report!
Jan 25, 2025•18 min
The Federal Reserve in the US meets next week, and there’s a good chance they do nothing. That would see the upper bound of the Fed Funds Rate, the US version of our Official Cash Rate (OCR), remain at 4.50 per cent. With our OCR at 4.25 per cent, the unusual situation of us having a lower policy rate than the US is likely to persist a bit longer. In fact, if financial markets are correct this gap is likely to widen significantly. How might this impact the NZ dollar, and what could turn things a...
Jan 20, 2025•6 min
There were plenty of lessons for investors in 2024, as is the case every time we close the book on a calendar year. The one that stood out for me was the need to ensure your investments were globally diversified. If you didn’t do that and instead hunkered down in New Zealand assets, you didn’t enjoy the success you could’ve. Let's delve into some of the 2024 returns, from here and abroad, and highlight why it was so important to have your wealth spread far and wide.
Jan 15, 2025•9 min
The shares or property debate remains alive and well, especially in housing-obsessed New Zealand. Some property people will never touch shares. Likewise, some share investors see property as far too much work for a relatively modest reward. Shares and property have many fundamental value drivers in common, but they are also very different. Let's crunch the numbers to see which stacks up best, and compare the pros and cons of each.
Jan 12, 2025•11 min
There’s a lot of excitement out there amongst borrowers, particularly those with a mortgage renewal coming up. The message boards are full of people speculating on how low rates will go, and strategising how to play it for maximum advantage. While the optimism is justified, some caution applies as well. If you’re in the midst of that refixing decision, there are a couple of important points to be aware of.
Jan 08, 2025•7 min
As a new year begins, there are a raft of questions over what to expect from financial markets in 2025. Will the New Zealand economy recover from recession, how much further will interest rates fall, and what will that mean for the housing market? Investors are also pondering the outlook for the ailing local sharemarket, while speculating if the might S&P 500 can keep rising or if it's due for a fall. We'll try and answer some of those questions, with a few market predictions for 2025....
Jan 01, 2025•12 min
There’s a lot of good investment wisdom out there. Ensure you’re well-diversified, stick to quality assets, don’t overtrade and keep fees to a minimum are but a few examples. One of the simplest but most important, especially it comes to shares (or any growth asset, for that matter) is to maintain a long-term view. That can be difficult, especially during periods of uncertainty (which come frequently). However, it really is non-negotiable. If you don’t feel you can stick it out for at least five...
Dec 27, 2024•6 min
Talk of a capital gains tax (or a CGT) found its way back into the headlines during 2024. It’s hard to see a National-led government making any such changes to our tax system, but it could be back on the agenda when we inevitably see a change of government. Do we need a CGT here in New Zealand, and what are the drawbacks of implementing such a radical change?
Dec 22, 2024•7 min
Kiwibank has been in the news again, with the Government announcing it will consider tapping KiwiSaver funds and other large investors for another $500 million to inject into the business. Is this move a stepping stone on the path to a full-blown IPO and sharemarket listing, and would this be a good thing for the company, taxpayers and the market?
Dec 16, 2024•6 min
There's plenty to monitor across the world this week. Flash PMIs for December will be out early in the week, while another highlight will be the PCE inflation report in the US on Friday. There are three major central banks meetings taking place, with the Federal Reserve in the US expected to cut interest rates again on Thursday morning and decisions from the Bank of Japan and Bank of England later than day. Here in New Zealand, a highlight will be the September quarter GDP report, while we'll al...
Dec 14, 2024•16 min
As this year draws to a close, there are a raft of questions over what to expect from financial markets in 2025. Will the New Zealand economy recover from recession, how much further will interest rates fall, and what will that mean for the housing market? Investors are also pondering the outlook for the ailing local sharemarket, while speculating if the might S&P 500 can keep rising or if it's due for a fall. We'll try and answer some of those questions, with six predictions for 2025....
Dec 10, 2024•12 min
This week the global highlight will be the November CPI report in the US on Wednesday. This will be closely watched as investors look ahead to the final Federal Reserve meeting of the year next week, where the central bank is expected to reduce interest rates another 0.25 per cent. Markets will also be watching the latest inflation and trade data in China, monthly GDP in the UK and central bank decisions in Australia, Canada, Europe and Switzerland. On the local front, we'll get some further GDP...
Dec 07, 2024•12 min
It’s been a good year for the local sharemarket. The NZX 50 index is up 11.0 per cent so far, which sees it on track for its best year in four. Most of our biggest companies have performed well, but one notable exception is Spark. It’s share price is down more than 40 per cent in 2024, making it one of the biggest decliners across the entire exchange. There are several reasons for the disappointing performance. Some of these are a function of the economic backdrop, while others are of the compan...
Dec 03, 2024•5 min
This week is a busy one in terms of international economic releases. The focus will be on the US jobs report, which is out on Friday. This will be a key piece of the puzzle ahead of the Fed's next decision on December 18 (where markets see a 65% chance of another 0.25% cut). We'll also get the latest ISM indices in the US, as well as the University of Michigan's monthly consumer survey. November PMIs will be out in China, while in Australia we'll get the GDP report for the September quarter. It'...
Nov 30, 2024•15 min•Season 1Ep. 225
The US sharemarket has pushed higher since the election, building on the strong gains we saw leading up to it. The S&P 500 index is up 27 per cent (including dividends) so far in 2024, on the back of a similar rise last year. After the 60 per cent return since the end of 2022, is a traditional “Santa rally” on the cards, or will the market run out of puff?
Nov 26, 2024•7 min
The final RBNZ meeting of 2024 is on Wednesday. Markets expect another 50-basis point cut, but could the RBNZ go bigger or smaller? We'll also get the retail sales report for the September quarter, and the latest monthly ANZ Business Outlook. There will be plenty to watch on the corporate front too, with a raft of listed companies scheduled to release earnings including Turners, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and Ryman Healthcare.
Nov 23, 2024•16 min
There’s a lot of excitement out there amongst borrowers, particularly those with a mortgage renewal coming up. The message boards are full of people speculating on how low rates will go, and strategizing how to play it for maximum advantage. While the optimism is justified, some caution applies as well. If you’re in the midst of that refixing decision, there are a couple of important points to be aware of.
Nov 19, 2024•7 min
