November flash PMIs will be among the key international releases, with these due from most of the major economies on Friday. Investors will also be watching inflation readings from the UK and Japan, while there is a long list of central bank speakers. The world's most valuable share, NVIDIA, reports on Wednesday and we'll also see earnings releases from Walmart, Palo Alto Networks and Target. It'll be a quieter week on the local economic front, as investors look ahead to next week's Reserve Bank...
Nov 16, 2024•14 min
Last week's Federal Reserve press conference was a little different to usual, coming hot on the heels of the election. Fed Chair Jerome Powell fielded several questions about President-elect Donald Trump, offering nothing in response. However, the Fed can’t avoid talking about Trump forever though. We're in for an interesting twelve months, and it might all start with the upcoming meeting in December.
Nov 12, 2024•5 min
The latest inflation figures will be a highlight in the US this week, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Thursday in Dallas about the economic outlook. Closer to home, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s survey of expectations will be in focus, as will the latest housing market report from the Real Estate Institute. On the corporate front, the international reporting season is winding down but we'll still hear from Home Depot, Tencent, Burberry, Walt Disney and Alibaba. There's...
Nov 09, 2024•15 min
There’s a lot of good investment wisdom out there. Ensure you’re well-diversified, stick to quality assets, don’t overtrade and keep fees to a minimum are but a few examples. One of the simplest but most important, especially it comes to shares (or any growth asset, for that matter) is to maintain a long-term view. That can be difficult, especially during periods of uncertainty (which come frequently). However, it really is non-negotiable. If you don’t feel you can stick it out for at least five...
Nov 05, 2024•6 min
Brace yourself, this week will be one of the biggest of the year for investors! It's not often a Federal Reserve meeting takes a back seat to other events, but the US election will absolutely be the focal point in the days ahead. The Fed decision will follow later in the week, with markets expecting a 0.25% rate cut, and monetary policy decisions will also be forthcoming from the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England. Locally, the key release will be the labour force report for the Septe...
Nov 02, 2024•19 min
The US presidential election is almost upon us, and recent polls suggest it’s too close to call. That bodes well for former President Donald Trump, who performed much better than the polls suggested in both 2016 and 2020. Maybe that’s why the betting odds are tilted in his favour and Wall Street now views Trump as the favourite. What might this mean for interest rates, the US dollar and the sharemarket?
Oct 29, 2024•8 min
It's a busy week ahead on the US economic calendar, with PCE inflation for September as well as the latest ISM index and the all important jobs report. Inflation will be in focus across the Tasman, while the highlight of a holiday-shortened week in New Zealand with be the latest ANZ Business Outlook. On the corporate front, investors can look forward to earnings releases from some of the tech heavyweights as Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple all announce results.
Oct 26, 2024•10 min
The shares or property debate remains alive and well, especially in housing-obsessed New Zealand. Some property people will never touch shares. Likewise, some share investors see property as far too much work for a relatively modest reward. Shares and property have many fundamental value drivers in common, but they are also very different. Let's crunch the numbers to see which stacks up best, and compare the pros and cons of each.
Oct 22, 2024•11 min
This week's key releases will be October flash PMIs, the Fed Beige Book, European consumer confidence and the Tokyo CPI in Japan. The international quarterly corporate reporting season continues as well, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies scheduled to announce results. Some of the highlights are likely to include 3M, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Tesla, Unilever, UPS and Colgate-Palmolive. Closer to home, markets will tune in to a speech from RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr in Washington DC.
Oct 19, 2024•17 min
The Reserve Bank's bumper OCR cut gave the local sharemarket a boost earlier this month. With further reductions expected in the coming months, New Zealand shares could be in for a brighter period. Listed companies should see improved earnings as the recession abates and the economy recovers, which bodes well for dividends as well as share prices. As investors face steadily falling returns from term deposits, we’re also likely to see money flow into other assets, including shares.
Oct 15, 2024•12 min
The international corporate reporting season ramps up this week, with numerous heavyweights set to announce earnings. With the S&P 500 in the US sitting at record highs, this will be important for the direction of markets. Some of the highlights in the coming days are likely to include Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, LVMH, Nestle, Netflix, TSMC and Procter & Gamble. It'll be a busy week on the local front, with the September inflation report taking centre stage on Wednesday. This w...
Oct 12, 2024•21 min
Gold has been one of the best performing assets these last two years, rising more than 40 per cent and even outpacing the S&P 500 index in the US. Long regarded as a safe-haven asset, it is traditionally favoured by those worried about the health of the global economy and financial system. However, gold has also proven to be a useful diversifier, making it a candidate for inclusion in mainstream investment portfolios.
Oct 09, 2024•9 min
We have a lot of clients from farming backgrounds, either past or present. They’re great people, and many have spent decades overcoming a plethora of challenges to build very successful businesses. When the time comes to think beyond the farm, investing in a portfolio dominated by shares, listed property, private equity and fixed income doesn’t always come naturally. Having less control and influence is a mental hurdle for some, while diversifying far and wide can also be a new concept. However,...
Oct 06, 2024•10 min
US tech investor Nat Friedman famously said "pessimists sound smart, optimists make money." He wasn’t referring to financial markets, but there’s something we can learn from that as investors. There’s nothing wrong with being mindful of risks and let’s be honest, at any given time the list of concerning issues is a lengthy one. However, when it comes to investing being an optimist pays off.
Oct 03, 2024•7 min
The New Zealand dollar has rebounded strongly in the last couple of months. It’s been sitting comfortably above US$0.63 in recent days, up eight per cent from under US$0.59 in late July. That’s the highest in more than a year and not far from the long-term average of US$0.66. What's driving this recent surge, where might the NZ dollar go from here and what does this mean for the economy?
Sep 30, 2024•7 min
The US labour market will be in focus this week, as investors speculate on the likelihood of another 50-basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in November. There will also be a debate between the US Vice Presidential candidates in New York this week. Locally, business confidence will be in the spotlight with the ANZ Business Outlook for September due on Monday and the NZIER's QSBO out the next day.
Sep 28, 2024•14 min
The Federal Reserve started its easing cycle with a bang last week. It cut the Fed Funds Rate by 0.50 per cent, a bigger move than some had expected. Is that an ominous sign for the outlook, or will it be the catalyst for markets to keep pushing higher? Central banks don’t have a great track record of taming inflation without causing recessions, but for now investors are keeping the faith.
Sep 24, 2024•7 min
Global growth will be in focus this week, with the release of flash purchasing managers’ indices for September. We’ll also get the latest PCE inflation report in the US, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. On the central banking front, a monetary policy decision is due across the Tasman, although no change is expected. The domestic economic calendar is sparse, although there is quite a bit of corporate news to follow. The retail sector will be in focus with results from Kat...
Sep 21, 2024•20 min
It’s been a difficult few years for first home buyers. Just when borrowing costs started falling in 2020, prices started rising sharply to offset any extra spending capacity buyers had. When the dust settled and prices started coming back to earth, mortgage rates had started to rise rapidly. The housing market stabilised early last year, and now we’ve seen mortgage rates start heading south. Where does that leave potential buyers, and is now a good time to pounce on that first home?
Sep 17, 2024•7 min
Looking ahead, this week is shaping up as a very busy one with some extremely important events taking place across markets. The Federal Reserve decision in the US will be the highlight, with the first interest rate cut of this cycle (and the first in more than four years) looming. While a 0.25% cut seems assured, markets are ascribing a 35% chance of a larger, 0.50% cut. Here in New Zealand we’ll get the results of another dairy auction, as well as economic growth figures for the June 2024 quart...
Sep 14, 2024•13 min
Talk of a capital gains tax is back in the headlines. It’s hard to see a National-led government making any such changes to our tax system. However, it could be back on the agenda when we inevitably see a change of government. Do we need a capital gains tax in New Zealand, and what are the drawbacks of implementing such a radical change?
Sep 10, 2024•7 min
Inflation will be in focus in the US this week, with the August consumer price index due on Wednesday. The annual rate of increase fell below 3.0% for the first time in three years last month, and markets will be hoping for another moderation ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Markets are expecting the first Fed rate cut of this cycle, while they see a 30% likelihood of a larger 0.50% cut. We’ll also be watching the second presidential debate, but the first between Donald Trump and Ka...
Sep 07, 2024•15 min
Interest rates are headed lower, which will take the pressure off household budgets and give many homeowners a reprieve. Borrowers are right to feel more optimistic about what’s ahead, but don’t get ahead of yourself just in case they don't come down as much as you think. If the "neutral OCR" is higher than it used to be, the “new normal” for mortgage rates will be too.
Sep 03, 2024•10 min
It'll be a holiday-shortened week in the US with markets closed for the Labor Day holiday on Monday. However, there will still be plenty to monitor, with the latest ISM indices (for both the manufacturing and services sectors) due as well as the monthly jobs report. Closer to home, it'll be a quieter week on the corporate front now that the Australasian reporting season having wrapped up. However, we'll get second quarter GDP in Australia and the results of the latest global dairy trade auction ...
Aug 31, 2024•17 min
Gold has been one of the best performing assets these last two years, rising more than 40 per cent and even outpacing the S&P 500 index in the US. Long regarded as a safe-haven asset, it is traditionally favoured by those worried about the health of the global economy and financial system. However, gold has also proven to be a useful diversifier, making it a candidate for inclusion in mainstream investment portfolios. Let's discuss some of the things that can make gold prices rise and fall, ...
Aug 27, 2024•9 min
Inflation will be in the spotlight this week with PCE inflation due in the US on Friday, ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting next month. The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey will be the key release in New Zealand, while the corporate reporting season will continue with Chorus, Summerset, Meridian Energy and Air New Zealand set to releases earnings this week across the NZX. However, the biggest corporate release of the week will come on Wednesday in the US, with NVIDIA due to report.
Aug 24, 2024•15 min
Last week’s OCR cut received a lot of attention, and rightly so. It was the first since 2020, and it marked the end of 15 months at 5.50 per cent, the highest since 2008. That sparked the biggest two-day rally in New Zealand shares for two years, and the beginning of the easing cycle has seen the market rebound more than ten per cent from the lows of recent months. Is this optimism justified, will it last, and how have shares, bonds and property performed in the past following interest rate cuts...
Aug 20, 2024•16 min
Last week was a very good one for local investors. The NZX 50 enjoyed its seventh positive week out of the last eight, rising 4.0%, the strongest weekly gain in more than four years. The index is up 10.4% from its recent lows, and at its highest level since January 2022. In the days ahead, markets will be kept busy with a busy week of corporate results, as the likes of a2 Milk, Freightways, Fletcher Building, Auckland Airport and Port of Tauranga all report earnings.
Aug 17, 2024•16 min
The local reporting season ramps up next week, putting many of our largest listed corporates under the microscope. It’s started more slowly than usual, with only a handful of releases so far and most businesses choosing to schedule earnings announcements for the last two weeks of August. We’ve seen a rebound in the sharemarket over the last few months, with the NZX 50 index rising more than six per cent from its recent lows and July the strongest month since April 2020. So what should we expect ...
Aug 13, 2024•11 min
It's a huge week here in New Zealand, with one of the most eagerly anticipated Reserve Bank decisions in recent memory due on Wednesday afternoon. The international highlights will include the July CPI report in the US, as well as retail sales for the same period. Investors will also be watching monthly activity indicators in China and a raft of economic releases in the UK. The New Zealand reporting season will start slowly with Skellerup the only company of note set to report earnings. However,...
Aug 10, 2024•17 min
