Mariana Mazzucato Thinks We Need More Moonshots - podcast episode cover

Mariana Mazzucato Thinks We Need More Moonshots

May 08, 202656 min
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Summary

Mariana Mazzucato, a leading expert on public sector investment, outlines her "mission economy" framework, which shifts focus from merely fixing market failures to actively shaping markets and driving innovation to address grand challenges. She critiques the over-reliance on consultants, emphasizing the need to rebuild state capacity and dynamic capabilities within government. The discussion also covers the ethical governance of AI, advocating for pre-distributive policies and systemic thinking to ensure technology serves public purpose.

Episode description

Today's guest Mariana Mazzucato is one of our most requested. Mazzucato, a professor of economics at University College London and the founding director of its Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, specializes in the political economy of technological development and public sector investment. In our conversation, recorded in Madrid while at the Bloomberg CityLab conference, she explains her concept of the "mission economy," her definition of state capacity, how to prevent top talent from fleeing to the private sector, and whether consultants or governments should be blamed for inefficiencies and civic failures. It's a wide-ranging interview, one that covers everything from the initial public financing of Silicon Valley algorithms to the history of moonshots.

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Transcript

Intro / Opening

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

CityLab, Local Governance, and Guest Intro

Speaker 2

Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lawns Podcast.

Speaker 3

I'm Jill Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway.

Speaker 2

We're still here in Madrid. Tracy, how are still here? You have a good time?

Speaker 3

I am. I've eaten a lot of ham and cheese and that's pretty much all I can say.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I'm going to turn into a hormone by the time I leave. I'm certain of that. So we are at the Bloomberg City Lab conference. You know, it's funny, like the mayoral level of politics, not something we spend a ton of time typically on, but I would say,

like it definitely. You know when I think about it, when I'm like here and like listening to a lot of the conversations, it's just so obviously like connected to a lot of the themes we talk about, because so much of our discussions have to do with something related to you know, innovation or technology or implementation of policy and how it spans both the public and private sectors. Yeah.

Speaker 3

I mean also when I think about a lot of a thloughts topics like AI or housing affordability or inequality like cities, I think City lab actually use this phrase at one point, but cities are really at the front line of all of those challenges, right, and trying to implement policy in that local level in a way that's like very easy to see and observe and also to judge totally.

Speaker 2

Yeah, no, it's exactly right. And I think maybe there's something like, you know, I don't it feels like to some extent, the mayoral level of any governance to sort of maybe the least ideological and the most like, you know, we talked to the Baltimore mayor, for example, and so much of his theme was just like talking to other mayors, like what's working in your town, that's working in your city,

and what's not working and so forth. They all have such similar challenges, so many things have been like repeated, you know, one time after another that like they all can sort of speak the same language and all have the same issues.

Speaker 3

Yeah, it's funny. You kind of got that local idea swapping at a mayor a level that I cannot imagine necessarily happening in national politics. Like can you imagine Trump and Chi Himpin getting together and be like, oh, we implemented this really cool, like national transportation program. Have you tried it?

Speaker 2

Yeah, you know, know you hear like these stories right of a governor sometimes or a mayor will go to like another country like oh we can like learn from what the city did on transit or whatever. But no, you don't really hear that the same way at the real national level, where a lot of our discussions tend to sit.

Speaker 4

Absolutely Anyway, I'm really.

Speaker 2

Excited about today's episode. We're going to be speaking with a guest who I would say, like, since we've been doing Odd Lives, is actually one of the more frequently requested, long requested, and so it's sort of a failure on our part that like we just like never made it happen before. But yeah, someone who like really like those whole career is like dedicated to a lot of odd, lozzy things.

Speaker 3

Well, we waited until we could do it at Madri, but I.

Speaker 2

Didn't want to just do it at any other random venue. Yes, it was all very strategically designed. So we really do have the perfect guest. Some of that A lot of guests have wanted to listen to here from for a long time. We're going to be speaking with Mariana Matzicato, professor a University College London, founder of the Institute for Public Purpose, author of several books sort of touching on these themes of technology, public sector, private sector, the roots

of innovation, how these things actually get deployed. So, Professor Matzakato, thank you so much for coming on ODL. Finally, finally, are completely our fault for not having made it happen sooner. But what do you just started? Like, what are you doing here? What brings you to this particular conference a what attracts you here?

Rethinking Government and Economic Models

Speaker 4

Well, first of all, I'm here also because the government of Spain is really kind of leading the way in many areas that I'm very interested in, especially the kind of new economic thinking that needs to underpin how we rethink government. And so I was meeting with both the Prime Minister and the Minister for the Economy, Carol Squerpo, who I'm on a panel today with about a council

that we've just set up. It's called the Global Council for a Common Good Economy anyway, And besides that, I'm also here to speak at the Bloomberg City Labs event about this new public sector Capability index that we've been developing with them, as a partner, which is really about reinvesting inside the civil service so that they can really tackle those wicked complex problems instead of you know, hiring Deloitte during COVID and giving them one point five million

a day to do test and trace, which they fail at in the UK.

Speaker 3

I definitely want to get you to go off on consultants. But before we do, like when you meet with someone like the Prime Minister of Spain, what is it that they want to know from you? Like, what information or expertise are they seeking?

Speaker 4

Right? Well, I'm actually quite lucky that my books actually get read by the Prime minister. So usually what happens is that they've especially the Entrepreneurial State, which I know rud in twenty thirteen that had quite a bit of an effect here. They even wrote a report called el Espae and they we really want to ask me, you know, what does that mean? What does it mean for actually

even being able to fail? For example? Right, so a venture capitalists are was bragging about all the failures that they had in order to get a success, you know, whereas as soon as a civil servant or a minister fails or prime minister fails. Front page of the papers, So they're very interested in the kind of narrative change, but also well the cultural change, but especially the theoretical underpinning.

Would then say, a finance ministry or an economics ministry that needs to then a company rethinking government, because otherwise, if you continue to have the old economic models where we judge things by cost benefit analysis and at present value, all these really static metrics, we would have never even bothered going to the moon. Okay, first of all, in the nineteen sixties, had we thought of it as a cost benefit calculation and so what should replace that? Right?

The Evolution of Industrial Strategy

Speaker 3

So you mentioned the Entrepreneurial State being published in twenty thirteen, and I feel like I need to emphasize this because there has been this mind shift since the twenty twenty pandemic on industrial policy, and we kind of take it almost as a given, especially on this show, that there is a role for governments to play when it comes to innovation and entrepreneurialism. But you were there very early. Did you feel vindicated by the twenty twenty shift.

Speaker 4

Well, I think there's a bit of a misunderstanding that just because government's spending a lot of money, investing a lot of money, whether it's the IRA or the next GENUU to trillion recovery plan in Europe. That that means that industrial strategy is back, or that you know, government is being really strategic. It depends, And I mean that's the whole point, right, you know, how are we actually framing it? Is it just a lot of tax incentives?

Are we focused too much on sectors? To what degree is industrial strategy actually helping to create a more inclusive, sustainable, innovation driven, you know, economy, or is it just another wave of handouts and subsidies to particular sectors and then we end up socializing risks and privatizing rewards. And also, I mean I used to joke that the US government has always had an industrial strategy, but you know, pretended

not to. And they've always talked to the Jefferson talk but acted the Hamilton talk or the Hamiltonian kind of more proactive government strategy. But by pretending that wasn't there,

they kept a lot of things under the radar. And the joke bit is just that finally people understood what the hell was talking about because of the musical before the musical came out Hamilton anyway, So I think that's really important to recognize that industrial strategy has always been there, except that in certain phases, including now in some countries, it's not really strategy in terms of being driven by public purpose, which as you said, is the title in

this Institute for Renovation of Public Purpose that I direct. It's been just kind of vertical strategies focused on sectors, technologies, types of firms, right, the whole focus on small, medium enterprises. So what I've been trying to do is to say,

Mission-Oriented Innovation for Big Problems

stop focusing on sectors, technologies and firms. Focus on big problems, right, as bold as going to the moon and back at a short amount of time, the mission idea, the missions that then require sexual support. But you're not getting support because you are a particular sector. You're getting support if

you're willing. So moving away from picking winners to picking the willing, if you're willing to work with government around these very difficult challenges, which could be as I don't want to say simple, but as concrete as making sure that every child in a country has healthy, tasty, sustainable school lunch, right, not just school lunch. That was the Reagan thing where he said ketchup is a vegetable, So

we can reduce the cost. We all had T shirts of Reagan and ketchup which was the vegetable is what the T shirt said. So having moonshots, even on something as simple as the cafeteria, that then requires innovation across many different areas. It requires government to wake up and not just have that be done. For example, from the Department of Education, you know, Department of Agriculture, Health, Education, Finance would work together on a moonshot of healthy, tasty,

sustainable school lunch. So that interministerial coordination which we saw during COVID, right, so we had the war room, the situation room, you know, the military, education, health, and so on together because we had these really difficult challenges. But as soon as COVID stops, we go back to very siloed ways of thinking.

Speaker 2

As someone with two kids in the New York City of public schools, I can absolutely confirm that the degree to which they associate the mayor with school lunch policy is extremely real. And they like talk about like, oh, we used to have these like really nice waffles or something, and then Eric Adams got rid of home, or like they're really like key to single issue, the single issue.

They're like, really pay attention to the degree to where school lunch policy shifts with administration, Like this is like the really they really think? What is state capacity? We've been using this term for years on the podcast and we're like during COVID, we're like, no, it took a took, you know, a long time to stand up testing facilities for since and people's like, oh, well, lot lack state capacity, But what is it? What's the definition?

Defining State Capacity and Dynamic Capabilities

Speaker 4

We actually distinguish between the word capacity routines kind of administrative routines and then capabilities. Okay, so what states are often what governments are often lacking or those kind of dynamic capability. So capacity partly is like literally do you even have fiscal space? Do you have a budget? But also how are you thinking about that budget in terms

of do you well put it this way? Capacity is you know a number of people working in your administration, the budget that's been allocated, perhaps also the training you know that the civil service actually has. But capabilities are what you actually then do with it. Are you agile? Are you flexible? Are you able to pivot during COVID and actually start working in this more again inter ministerial way.

Do you know how to work with others, right, you know, do you set up good partnerships or they problematic partnerships? And also you were talking before about what you're learning here, which is fantastic about how mayors can learn from each other. Right, have you invested in your ability to learn to adapt? And so I think that Ladder, you know this, this concept of dynamic capabilities is a much more complex area

to be investing in. And the only reason you would do it is if you actually have a theory about government that is more than what traditional economists think about government, which is at best, well, at worst, get out of the way, at best, fix the market failure. So as soon as you say, actually, it's about shaping and co creating a different type of economy and society that works for people in planet, then the question is what does

that mean for the capabilities that you need. If you're just fixing, then you just need a lot of bandages. And that's in fact what we get. We get very reactive kind of filling the gap kind of.

Speaker 3

Policies, pendulum constantly swinging exactly exactly.

Speaker 4

But I mean capacity, of course is essential. Without a budget and fiscal space, you can do nothing. That third category that I mentioned quickly administrative routines, that's you know, are you also you know, do you have a stable environment where you can learn by doing? Because if you're constantly changing what you're doing, it's going to be hard

to have a learning by doing dynamics. So those kind of administrative routines I even see this on my university, where as soon as you get a lot of turnover, even those kind of basic routines aren't there. But capability. So these three areas, capacity, routines and capabilities are equally important, but the capabilities are really what I find are lacking.

And it goes back, as I was mentioning before, to the underlying economic dogma that has underpinned the way that we think about policy government at different levels that by design, not by coincidence, is reactive.

The Big Con: Critiquing Consultants

Speaker 3

Have consultants become a substitute for state capacity slash routine slash administrative ability?

Speaker 4

Right?

Speaker 3

I always wonder how we got to the point where consultants are so big anyway, because it feels like every time you hire a consultant, it's almost an admission of failure on your part to be able to do something right. And nevertheless, it's a widely accepted practice across governments.

Speaker 4

So my last book actually was called The Big con So Confort Consulting, and the subtitle was how We've weakened businesses and fantalized governments and warped our economies basically due to this consultification. I wouldn't blame the consultants. I mean I actually blame governments, right, like, why are you opening the door so wide to consultants? And it's fine to have advisors and some consultants. The problem is when they are actually doing the core tasks that government should do. Again,

test and trace during COVID was a core task. And so I think it really stems from i'd say the eighties when we you know, the kind of Reagan Thatcher years. If you want, it always goes back to yeah, but actually in the UK, for example, it even increased more during the Labor government. So it's not it's not you know, one party, but it did begin i'd say in the eighties with this kind of downsizing of governments, which then

ironically cost them more. Because as soon as you start downsizing without really strategically thinking what you need and what you don't need, of course you should trim the fat. There's no reason to have, you know, a bloated government structure.

But when it's done for ideological reasons and not strategic reasons, then you know, ironically, then you end up not having those capabilities that you need as soon as you have a flood or you know, Brexit or COVID, And so I think then what happens with the consultants is it's not their fault that they're invited in. I do think it's very problematic what they end up doing once they're in.

So there's huge conflicts of interest. Well, the biggest conflict of interest being that they have no incentive really to make government better later because they wouldn't have no contracts. It'd be like having a therapist your whole life, that therapist, which they're very.

Speaker 2

Good, which is which is how the therapy models are.

Speaker 3

Well, do you remember this came up in the episode we did about construction in New York and this idea that like one of the reasons it's so expensive and takes so long for like public funded projects is because consultants have no incentive to actually get the project done.

Speaker 4

Yes, but also they're often working on both sides of the street, right, so they'll be for example, consulting for I don't know, a state own enterprise like ESCOM in South Africa as well as the treasury. We should be regulating ESCOM or in Australia. The it's a famous case with PwC where they were consulting for a medical device company as well as the regulators of the medical device

companies that come on. So that should just be illegal, right and again you know, getting the right kind of regulation that makes sure that we don't have these kind of scams. So what we also argued was, you know, the first thing is start investing back inside government so you don't need so much consulting. But also when you do bring in the consultants, make sure the contract's actually in bed learning within them and that you are also

bringing in the right people. You know, if you have an oncology strategy, of course you should get the top doctors and consultants and cancer to advise. So the other huge problem is that these consultants when they're coming in, they often actually don't know very much and they end up really bothering the poor public servants that end up emailing oh would you mind telling me what you think about or sending me your you know, plan that we

can study. It's like, why are you even working with government if you don't have within the consulting companies that deep expertise, which you know, I'm not saying this just because I'm an academic, but I don't think academics are used enough. You know, if you have a research center that's been thinking about climate change for the last forty years, use them. Don't ask McKenzie as Australia did to design your climate strategy, which ended up, by the way, being terrible.

So there is a bit of why is it that governments A don't invest in their own capacity capabilities, and B when they do go out there and look for the advisors and consultants are kind of getting the ones that simply kind of provide a rubber stack right that makes them feel more secure. They haven't even done the homework to make sure they are getting the top people in the world to help advise them on doing.

Speaker 2

The process, just to take the other side of the client.

Smart Public-Private Partnerships: NASA's Example

So recently in New York City it was I don't know, I think scandal is too strong a word, but there are a lot of headlines about how much the city had paid consultants for working on redesigning the trash collection system in the city. And on the one hand, it's a trash collection core city function, why do you have to bring in a consultant. On the other hand, reimagining the trash collection system is like, that's a one time so maintaining it, implementing it, servicing it, okay, that's like

a permanent government function. But the actual like, okay, we have to do a redesign. That is that necessarily something that like we need to have in house in government that capacity, because do you want to permanently have that muscle because that's a one shot thing, doesn't it? Like to me, that makes sense? Is the time to bring in.

Speaker 3

At argue for something like that. There's a value to having an external viewpoint, right, that makes sense.

Speaker 2

There's like the redesign that's a one time job. Like to me, I was like, all right, that doesn't seem crazy to bring in a third party to like help figure out what that plan is exactly.

Speaker 4

So that's the myth, right that somehow we're talking about either government does everything, yeah, right, or even nationalize everything, or it does nothing and it privatizes and brings them the consultants. So the truth is obviously somewhere in the middle. So, of course you're absolutely right. Government doesn't have to have

all those skills. It definitely needs the skills to know who to work with outside of government, but it also needs to even under stand that kind of outside landscape to even think about what might we need, how might we start developing a strategy that reimagines, say the trash collection process. So that's why you talk about missions. So when you know NASA wanted to go to the moon and back at a short amount of time, they didn't

say we're going to do it all by ourselves. And they also didn't say we're just going to do it with the aerospace sector, right, They said, we're going to have to work with so many different private sector people. They ended up working with something like four hundred thousand people in the private sector. They said, we have a lot of problems, but we don't know the solutions, but we're going to set very clearly a direction for working with the private sector in a problem oriented way. So

the first thing they did was change procurement. Procurement, you know, government purchasing is often like thirty percent of a government's budget. It's a very important part of their budget, whether it's Barbados, a small island state, or the US a very large government, procurement is there. How were we using it? So they realized they had the wrong type of procurement. It was

just again minimizing costs. It was cost plus procurement. They changed it to outcomes into procurement and they started to ask themselves, what are the outcomes that we need. We need to figure out how are the astronauts going to go to the bathroom? Right, which, by the way, was just a problem again with Artemis the toilet, Oh is a problem up in space? What are they going to eat? What are they going to wear? How will we communicate

with them? And it was the solutions to those problems that happened within mainly not only private sector institutions, with NASA's also kind of leading investment, but especially leading kind of thought process of what the problems were that ended up getting US camera phones, foil blankets, home insulation software, so many different innovations across many different sectors, aerospace, nutrition, materials, electronics.

That itself is what we're talking about, right, So, whether it's going to the moon, whether it's trash collection, whether it's school meals, whether it's getting prepared for the next pandemic, which unfortunately the science tells us will happen. How were we even thinking within government in a problem oriented way,

a solutions oriented way. And this, by the way, is why the City Lab conference is so wonderful and bloom Berg's Government Innovation Team is so important for so many cities, is because they then share their experiences of solving problems and then they ask and we're trying to help them do this with this public sector Capability index. What did we learn along the way that we were missing? Where were the bottlenecks? What can we do better? But especially

in terms of that flexibility, adaptability, willingness to experiment. Right, remember what Kennedy said, We're doing it because it's hard, not because it's easy. Yet all the words and policy papers are about making things easier. Facilitating. I'm Italian fatchia or in Spain fascia. Right, So if you're facilitating someone, it's not going to be a good contract. If you're de risking someone, it's not going to be a good contract.

If you're simply enabling, facilitating fixing, it's going to be a very bad public private relationship.

Accountability, Risk, and Government Labs

Speaker 3

Just going back to consultants for a second, and I think this is actually relevant to the discussion of having cooperation among different parts of the government on big projects. But how much of the consultants you fetish just has to do with diffusing responsibilities. So I always think back to the point the Olds saying about the purchasing manager thing, you'll never get fired for buying IBM, right, Like, how much of it is just like, well, you know, I

did my best, I hired McKenzie. What more can I do if it goes wrong?

Speaker 2

It's mckenney's accountability set.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Speaker 4

Absolutely, So that's a really important point because you know, one problem is when when government doesn't have those capabilities for the reasons we said before. Another is, even when they have it, why are they not using it. Australia again is an interesting example because they had really interesting capability within government with their Innovation Agency CSIRO, and yet they gave this massive contract to McKinsey to do their

climate strategy. And it's absolutely about diffusing that responsibility. But also because of the culture we have again within government, where if they do make mistakes, unlike in the entrepreneurial ecosystems and you know, VC and so on. We don't accept that. But it's also in the private sector, right, So we also talk in the book about the consultification

of management basically and there as well. You know, if you're going to be doing amergere or downsize and we're a massive share buyback scheme, isn't it great if you have you know, McKenzie told us to do it. So also just not taking on I mean it's kind of cowardly, right, like you're not kind of owning your decisions. I do think it's different in government. I think that you know, changing that culture, having more gov labs like they have

in Chile. Everything sounds better than Spanish and Spanish I always say that in Italian every time we have it's public sector reform, it's just cuts, but it sounds nice. It's literally just cuts. And so that idea that what we need is kind of a laboratory within government but

also between governments, I think is really important. By the way, the head of procurement in NASA, Ernest Brackett, in the sixties with the Apollo program, not only did he help change the procurement policy of NASA, but he also said, we got to watch out. There's too many consultants in

these corridors. And his exact quote was, if this continues, we will get captured by brochuremanship, which is kind of endearing because they don't have powerpoints at the time, right, So now the idea that you're ruling by a PowerPoint and that's basically all they know how to do at the time. It was kind of shiny bushures. But he didn't say we don't want to work with the private sector, right, He said, we won't know how to work with the private sector. We won't know how to write the terms

of reference if our own brains are becoming weak. So investing within in order to work also outside with others. So it's not working with others, it's working smartly with them.

AI's Public Origins and Talent Drain

Speaker 2

So this gets to the sort of one of the big questions of the day obviously, and that is AI. Right, And so you mentioned okay school lunches. You said a mission. It doesn't mean like the private sector isn't going to play a role in providing food or whatever. But first you establish what the mission is, then you talk about the moon. It doesn't mean that the private sector isn't

going to play a role. Private sector played a significant role through various technologies of procurement, but there is an overall mission. Well, how are you thinking about AI? Should governments first decide like what is our mission for this? What missions could it theoretically enable? Like does this feel different than other endeavors? We obviously know a lot of public sector money is going to wind its way up in AI and already has a lot of it already has,

But how are you does this fit? Is this different? Talk to us about how you think about this particular moment of extreme sort of technological ambition.

Speaker 4

Right, I mean, there's so much to say. So first, the investments that went into what we call today artificial intelligence, including you know LLM models, language models, speech recognition dates you know, decades, and like so many other areas, that

was led by government. So if you look at even DARPA, which as you know, was the lead investor in the Internet, it came from problems mainly in the military industrial complex that then required ultimately what we're calling artificial intelligence today. But again in the entrepreneurial state. I talked about how everything in our smartphones that make them smart, not stupid Internet GPS, touch being series and so on, we're a

government finance. What's very scary today, what makes today different with AI is that that's not really necessarily going to be true much longer. Why because these massive economic rents and I call them rents not profits, so excess profits and excess of what these companies actually did, because we privatized all the rewards from this massive social and collectively

created value in this area. They have so much money, right, trillions, not billions, trillions, The salaries they are paying to the top researchers in universities, both public and private universities, and to people who used to work in the NASAs, the darpas, the Kaffos in Chile, they are going now to work in these companies, and that hemorrhaging of talent of top research expertise. I don't think people are talking about this enough.

Governing AI for Ethical Public Purpose

It literally is the biggest change, right because otherwise just you know the fact that we've had, you know, big technological changes, general purpose technology is completely affecting you know, how we reduce, how we distribute, and you know, from the rise of electrification so on.

Speaker 2

The thing like at one point, I mean, I don't think it actually panned out. They had great for them, but didn't Uber hire the entire Carnegie Mellon robotics.

Speaker 4

Team, and I think they did.

Speaker 2

I think when when they were doing self driving car technology, they just wrote a check for the entire faculty of the CMU robotics team and it.

Speaker 4

Was just but not enough people are talking about this, so it's very hard to govern a process for good, ethically and so on if you don't understand it. So if this talent is in fact leaving these publicly financed institutions, even private universities, most of the research, as you know, has been funded by NSF and so on once they leave, and the knowledge is so concentrated in these few AI companies, I don't think we've thought about that enough. But sorry.

Just the other thing is just coming back to your question,

which I don't think I answered properly. Yes, of course government should be thinking because of its at least a democratically elected govern This is different for dictatorships what we would expect from them, but we would expect governments to make sure that any big change, large kind of opportunities around technological change are done in ways that are again good for people in planet right, But that requires not only that capacity that, as I mentioned, is being decimated,

but also a certain type of regulation which is making sure we even understand the process of, for example, how algorithms are currently being designed, and whether we have a situation like Shshana Zoobuff in her great book Surveillance Capitalism, she says, you think you're searching Google for free, they're searching you for free. That could have been avoided right

through the design of the algorithms. And given that the algorithms, initially at least were publicly financed, there is this issue of how do we in a predistributive way instead of kind of exposts with redistribution or regulation or market fixing. Think about innovation collaborations that have some of these really important ethical concerns thought about upfront. And an example of this would be during COVID, where you know, the vaccines were not the mission. The mission was to allow these

vaccines to be produced and available globally. Given it was a global health pandemic, we were all better off if the world was vaccinated. And yet only one of the vaccines, the one that was the collaboration between Oxford University and Astrosenica, had that kind of conditionality about what good looks like at the start in terms of how they collaborated. So

it was the publicly financed researchers. Oxford is a state school that put that as a condition with their relationship with astra Zenica, that they would share the knowledge, that they would join the patent pool keep costing price as well. So more of that.

Speaker 2

Every time I hear you know, Tracy like someone talk about studying AI and college and like their professors, I'm like, that's great, but why are those professors not in the private sector making one hundred times? I mean, many of them are, but I'm always like amazed that given how much money you go money on the table, Yeah, what are you doing at a university you'd brib making ten times?

Speaker 4

Where did that money come from? As the issue? Right, So this money that's being used to pay these very large salaries that you're talking about, it's very important to recognize that that didn't come about because of you know, early on this amazing kind of entrepreneurship and all the knowledge was in these companies. They gathered that knowledge. Now

they're using it. Of course they're pushing the frontier. Of course they're doing research, but that idea of also making sure that companies are not earning in excess, right, So why did the public person not benefit in those early days? Why are they evading so much tax? I mean literally in so many countries paying almost no tax. You know, also labor exploitation in the case of Amazon. You know,

you don't hear it from me. You hear it from all sorts of different investigations, even during COVID by the way that they wouldn't even put the ambulances apparently outside the warehouse. I don't I've read that. I'm not sure if it's true, But anyway, the point is that they're you know, what does a good company look like? And how does that then affect the returns that they're earning? And what is a just return versus these excess returns that now are being used to you know, hire in You.

Regulating AI: Disclosures and Dashboards

Speaker 3

Know, you mentioned the black box of the algorithms, which I think is a really interesting point. And we did an episode with the CTO of Goldman Sachs recently and we asked him, like, Goldman Sachs is a highly regulated bank. When you have bank supervisors who go in and want to understand your AI system, what are they actually understanding Do they like understand the underlying code that's driving the algorithm And the answer was, well, no, not really. You

can't expect them to understand all that stuff. It's more about having the right controls in place that prevent the altgoth from running amok. And so my question is with AI, where we have a lot of experts, highly paid experts and engineers in the private sector developing all this new stuff, versus a shrinking body of government officials, like, what should our expectation be about how much they understand this technology?

Speaker 4

Right? Well, it actually comes back also to that previous point. Do you need all that expertise inside or also how do you regulate this in such a way that also stimulates more innovation, because you don't want to put a

cap on the innovation just by overregulating it. This is where, by the way, I disagree with the abundance theorem, which makes it sound like, you know, there's all these opportunities out there, and it was regulation and too much planning and too many conditions that kind of hurt that, which I think actually corporate governance and shareholder value maximization as really actually stifled the opportunities that we have today, so they don't have to of course understand the algorithms, but

they do need to do exactly as you said, like we do with climate right where there's climate disclosures, we need to know what it is that we want to be disclosed. In fact, we have a project that we just did that we just finished with, do you know Tim Moriley. Yeah, So it was Tim and myself with a grant from the Amitior Foundation, a project we called Algorithmic Rents and how to reduce these rents and how

we're designing algorithms also through disclosures. So we thought about what would be the equivalent of AI related disclosures that could do exactly as you said, be almost the equivalent of what banks now have to do, but also companies have to do around g kind of metrics. And so I mean the project is still you know, underway, and what we want is actually to find kind of a coalition of AI companies that would be willing to think

about this with us. But that assumes, right that there's also enough of the science as there has been with climate change, which said this is an urgent problem and unless we fix it now, we're going to reach a tipping point where there's no coming back. That's really when

things started to change around the climate disclosures. We haven't for some reason, reached that yet, even though there's such a link also by the way, by the way, between AI and climate, like in terms of these data centers guzzling you know, like for every you know, chat, GPT search you do, apparently it's it's like using a bottle of water, like the small plastic bottles of water, Like

that's literally how much we're using. And yet you know, we're not making that kind of systemic understanding of you know, AI problems and how they are connected to climate and water problems and so on. And that requires again government not just having an indicator like GDP to think about, but a dashboard. Right when you're driving your car, if you had one number, you know, how much gas you have or how fast you're going, you would crash it.

So what does a dashboard look like? You know? For government, that would allow it to make sure it's on track to making sure that also with the evolution of technology, it's thinking about these kind of more systemic features and not just thinking about it as innovation policy.

Speaker 2

Just from a pure sort of history of technology standpoint, does AI feel different?

Speaker 4

I think it definitely fits with the kind of characteristics of a general purpose technology in the sense that it really does kind of change everything. However, there's also a lot of kind of myths around that kind of a bubble in terms of how we're thinking, not only in terms of the financial market bubble around it. But you know, just like with electricity, it took about thirty years to

actually really affect how governments were operating. Similarly with the Internet, you'll remember when Robert Solo was saying, you know, there's computers everywhere except in the productivity statistics. I think we're still very early in the phase with AI in terms of it having a really meaningful impact on improving Again, coming back to the point about problems, right, because ultimately

should be helping us solve problems? Which problems is AI really helping us to solve in a systemic way that can scale that there's learning between governments. We're definitely using AI. Is it actually helping us solve some of the biggest problems of our time again? Health problems, climate problems? Surely there's some of that, But until we manage this process, until we govern it both ethically but also in a way that is with government instead of kind of you know,

sidetracking government in order to extract these mega rents. Then we're going to have a huge problem.

Why Governments Lag on AI Systems

Speaker 3

Why do you think that hasn't happened yet or governments haven't stepped in faster, because I do think AI is kind of unusual in the sense that, you know, you have people like Sam Altman who will say very publicly in interviews like, yeah, this creates a lot of negative externalities, and society is going to have to figure out how to deal with this, and governments are going to have to figure out how to actually best deploy this technology.

Open AI publish a big industrial policy document, which again I think is kind of unusual to previous technological developments. And yet governments seem kind of slow. I don't want to generalize too much, but many governments seem kind of slow to get in and really start shaping what they want to do with AI.

Speaker 4

Yeah. I mean, I think again, it seems like I'm saying the same thing, but I really it's it's because I believe in it. This technology on its own will not solve anything if it's accompanied by a strong For example, health system that with AI thinking about health problems, then I can see that being absolutely revolutionary. And in fact, I once heard a really interesting discussion between Nandan Nilekani,

you know, it's an incredible entrepreneur of computer systems. He was one of the co founders of Inphasis in India, and Eric Schmidt at one of these dialogues we have in Bilajo, this beautiful villa in Lake Como run by the Brockefeller Foundation, and we had kind of Eric Schmidt on the one hand saying, you know, in the future, all we're going to really need is an app, a

health app, and that's going to be fine. And Nandan Nilkani, who really is one of the biggest innovators around computing, was like, what, like, let me tell you in India, without a proper health system, no matter how many apps you have, we will continue to have misery. And so

it's not one or the other. But what you need is more people like Nandan who think about what is the relationship between you know, the power of AI and the structure of a health system and who's thinking about that and if we do have at the same time, not just austerity, but this you know kind of dumbing down of what we think government is for. So even the health systems we have are not kind of you know,

fit for purpose. Then I don't see any sort of future of AI kind of helping us with health problems. And by the way, just look at I mean, like fifty five percent of the global food system right now is at risk because of how we're treating the global hydrological cycle. You know, biodiversity loss also in the Amazon is affecting droughts and floods in other parts of the world. That's a huge problem. To what degree are we really using AI to you know, fix that problem. Not much.

So it's also about where we're putting kind of the emphasis, and for that, I think we do need these moonshots government led working with the private sector and again using the power of AI well regulated to solve very concrete problems.

Speaker 3

Yeah, Joe, I was thinking about this specifically related to healthcare recently, because I've seen a bunch of startups that are saying they're going to simplify the billing process for hospitals. And then you also know that there are a bunch of insurance companies that are also using AI, and it's like, well, if We're just going to have.

Speaker 2

More suters debating with computers.

Speaker 3

Yeah, exactly, And like if the system itself doesn't change, nothing's going to improve, right.

Speaker 2

No, I've totally thought about the same thing where it just like feels like we're going to have this arms race where it's like my bot will argue with your bot, and then the only entities that make any money are the volt makers, the voughtmakers.

Speaker 4

You know that who was the mayor of Barcelona, another city here in Spain that you know, well, she when she was mayor, she came from a housing movement, so she was really really concerned with housing issues, but also you know, public transport, public schools, and so on. And her thing was, why is it that when the citizens of Barcelona, you know, like click on Uber or city Mapper, this data that's created from that, Right, every time we

click on something, data's created. She said, why aren't we in the city using that data to improve our decisions and understanding of our public transport and public housing challenges? And so she ended up hiring computer hackers into the city government. It made it a really cool place to work.

And I think that again kind of insourcing back in those kind of you know, cool hackers that currently are working in these companies, but to come and work with the city administration that says, we want you to come in fail but help you know, like don't worry about failings. Are you not fail, but you know, take risks to help us though, kind of really target our big challenges around housing, transport and so on, inequality in terms of access.

Politics, Bureaucracies, Global Policy Examples

Speaker 2

So obviously we're talking about the public sector. We're talking about the government's role in facilitating or guiding various technologies.

But there's also just like politics, right, winning elections and the fact that you know, as you mentioned, failures become a scandal and they're on the paper, and maybe like politicians lose their jobs, then someone comes in when you just in your own personal work, when you like think about this stuff, like how much do you have to calculate the reality that one big job of politicians is to win reelection and that a loss of election has the potential to just take the government in ninety or

one hundred and eighty degree turn from whatever the previous administration at any level in any country does, And how much do you like think about that reality when you're thinking about strengthening government.

Speaker 4

So The first time it started to work on missions wasn't on mission oriented policy, it was on mission oriented organizations right to better understand the DARPA kind of organization. Right, CORTFO in Chile is similar, CITRA in Finland, mind Lab in Denmark, Lenova and Sweden. These are innovation agencies that are in fact making these big bets that are mission oriented. But my question was how are they organized? You know, are they also unstable due to the electoral cycle? And

they had thought about this. I mean, it's not a coincidence that DARPA, for example, people come in for five years, so it's not the four year electoral cycle. They're actually told come in and do take risks. That's how you'll be evaluated, you know, not by just if you're succeeding all the time that means you're not taking those risks, but also the impact that your successes have, and so that kind of cultural shift, but also the fact that

people are coming in kind of on se conment. You know, they're not there to be a civil service civil servant their whole life. So we started studying Well, for some areas, I think that's fine, especially around innovation. Right, you want to coming back to the idea that we want to bring in and crowd in the top talent into government, you know, having like a five year period that you're going to help as a civil servant paid by the government, not as a consultant, you know, working with not at

the civil service. I do think there's lots of kind of room for that. So that idea that because we value the private sector, there has been for example, think of Harvard Business School where they have this case study methodology of businesses. We've never really done that with government entities because we don't value basically government as a value creators, just seen as a redistributor, a fixer, a facilitator and

enabler of the private sector. And that's of course where then we expect creativity and value to be created, which is not right. And so one of the things that we do in the Institute, which is actually a department, so we train up civil servants around the world also you know through our own MPa Masters and public administration, but also through applied learning programs, was to start developing

these cases. You know, what do we know about the BBC, You know, how is it different from other public broadcasters. How do they measure what they call public value. What is public value? So even having you know, comparison learning between say a public bank, the BBC, a government digital agency, on what it means to crowd in or crowd out their private sector, what it means to shape markets not

fix them. What does it mean to have a culture of experimentation versus this huge risk averseness that, as we said before, is a cause for the consultification. So I think a lot about that, but it's not you know, there's so much instability obviously also in the private sector, So there is a bit of a myth that it's all unstable in the public sector because of electoral turnover. We can't shape these bureaucracies to be creative bureaucracies, resilient bureaucracies.

They don't have to be vertical and so inertial. But the other point, I think that's sort of stemming. I think in your question, tell me if this is not related is literally winning the election? What are we learning globally? You know, why is it that Biden, whose economic policies were actually quite successful in the red states at least starting to be quite successful, Well, why in those states

did he not win? And I think there's something going on in a lot of countries, definitely also in Italy in the UK where people who have been let's just use the concept left behind on terms of the economic benefits at least in the past. Even when new economic policies work, that's not enough if people don't feel valued, if they don't have their dignity back, if they continue to feel condescended upon. So one of the really cool things I've been working on with city governments but even councils.

So my neighborhood in London is called Camden, It's about two hundred and fifty thousand people. I worked with the council on mission oriented procurement for adult social care across ten housing estates what you call projects in the US, and we brought the careers and the careys to the

table to design that policy. So working with people really valuing their lived experience to help its design policies that are meaningful and will improve their lives, I think it's just so important firstly to get those policies to be designed right, but also to give people again dignity and self worth. And I've seen it also, you know, because we have so much inequality in the UK, unfortunately we have food banks, which is barbaric if you think about it.

In the twenty first century, food banks, like you know, we should not have that. People should have food, you know, on the table, enough and healthy food. We don't have that. So transforming food banks into food cooperatives, green food cooperatives, where the people benefiting from the what was a food bank are now also in the place of governing, of having real deliberation, of thinking together. I can tell you the people I saw working in the food banks who

are also receiving the food. The facial expression, the dignity, just even how people are standing is completely different from a system where.

Speaker 3

You know, you here, someone's expired, like yeah, exactly from last Thanksgiving.

Speaker 4

No, but even if it's good food, you know, having again, you know, bringing back dignity and value it. It's so important, I think to fight populism.

Speaker 3

I'm going to ask what is potentially an unfair and loaded question, but I think it might be quite illustrative of everything that we've been discussing. When you look across the world, are there particular countries or cities that you think are doing industrial policy right in the sense that they're taking maybe a holistic approach with a defined strategy slash mission.

Speaker 4

So I tend to also look at very specific things that a government did instead of just saying the whole government's perfect right. So, for example, in Brazil, something they've done that I think has been very positive is that they've put what I call missions at the center of government, so the ecological transition is at the center, and that then required the Department of Finance, for example, to rethink

its own tools. For example, public bank right so BNDS, which is one of the largest public banks in the world. It can either just again give money out to say the agrobusiness industry or save the steel industry when it's going bust, or because there's an ecological transition, it can think about how these sectors themselves need to change in order also to access the loans that the bank is giving. Germany, by the way, did that when they had the end

Givende policy. They're public bank, the KfW. The way, they provided support to the steel sector, which in the US and the UK and so many countries steel is under pressure. The loans to the steel sector were conditional that the sector lower the material content of production, which they did in their own way. Had government told them how to do it, You kill innovation, but strong direction, conditional loans, and they ended up now having the greenest steel in

the world. It might not be competitive yet, and that's a scale issue that has also to do with regulation. But you know, repurpose, reuse, recycle technology in steel only happened because the public bank that was mission aligned. So I'm very interested in procurement. Public loans stayed on enterprises, digital, public infrastructure examples where they're not just things that are there,

but they're used to really transform and help development. Sweden is also really interesting because they had a high level challenge. Missions are somewhere between the challenge like the space race and the sector like aerospace, right, so the Moon mission required lots of different sectors, but it was very concrete.

Was the challenge of say, climate change or all the sustainable development goals, those are kind of very broad, so transforming them into missions and their challenge was I think they said they wanted a fossil free welfare state, and that's why then they said, well what are the missions. We were working with them on this and so we were kind of stimulating some of this thought through Venova. Their Innovation Agency, what are the missions that will help

us achieve that? And that's where then the Healthy, Tasty, Sustainable school Meals policy came from. We worked with them on that also in Brazil. We just actually put out a report about this with the World Food Program. But what was interesting again was that then that required government to work in a different way again interminousterely catalyzing bottom up experimentation, local manufacturing, but through also the redesign of the tools themselves. The UK, which I don't think is

a very good example right now. I mean there's lots of instability. There's also been fourteen years of austerity. Some things that were really interesting, and this is why I look more at the organizational kind of examples is Government Digital Services GDS, which basically began by government back in the early two thousand saying why does everyone have to go to say Google to download a white paper, Why

don't we have our own kind of digital platform. They did what most governments do, outsourced it to a company called Circo, which is not a very innovative company at all, gets lots of government contracts. They failed miserably, and then people from the iPlayer team and the BBC said we'll do it, So they went over to the Cabinet Office set up Government Digital Services, came up with this incredible digital platform called gov dot UK, which won an International

Design Award. But what was interesting to me from that example was that the first thing they did was look out the window and said, with arrows pointing out the window, those are not clients and customers. Let's stop talking about people as clients and customers. Their users with human rights and how they will access their driver's license, their paths for their voter registration has to enhance their like their souls,

and I make them want to die. You see the kind Looach movies where you know, people literally want to die when they're accessing their welfare payments because of just the complications around it. And so making you know, having kind of like a user friendly government digital platform that changes the experience of a citizen with those rights that they have through the technology just requires a very different kind of mind shift. And it became the coolest place

to work. So if you were taught you know, software engineer or even you know whatever, these hackers that add the cola wanted to hire. That's where they wanted to work. To the point that lots of private companies were having a hard time finding the top talent because they all wanted to work in and gidah. So again, those are the examples I think we need to look for, not like which is the government. This thing everything perfectly.

Speaker 2

All right, Professor Matchakato, thank you so much. Great to finally catch up with you. It took us all like randomly being in the same location. But thank you so pleasure. Thank you so much for coming on.

Speaker 4

Oudlocks, thank you so much for having the.

Speaker 2

Tracy. I'm glad we finally, professor the place to do it. This is definitely the place to do it. I think it really did. Her framing makes a lot of sense. This idea that like outsourcing is not per se bad.

That obviously any major mission is going to have to have significant private sector involvement and innovation, even if it's somehow publicly led, but that there's no chance of going anywhere if there's you know, the public sector doesn't have the internal muscle of who to talk to or to talk to at.

Speaker 4

The right time.

Speaker 3

How to judge performance.

Speaker 2

How to judge performance seems absolutely a key question.

Speaker 3

And that kind of gets back to the mission idea, which I did. I really I like the idea of focusing on what you're trying to achieve rather than just how you're actually going about achieving it. Like that makes a lot of sense to me if you're dealing with

a vast bureaucracy with lots of different silos. And also, I think like getting back to that expertise point does mean that you do develop that muscle internally within the organization rather than just like, Okay, we're going to hire McKenzie to figure out how we're going to do something. Instead you say, well, we want to do X, let's all get together and figure out how to do it.

Speaker 2

You know, AI seems like a weird thing as a technology because all right, on the one hand, you could say, like, all right, we want to massively improve our healthcare, so we want to massively improve healthcare outcomes. And I think you could like very easily say well, AI is going to be really big part of that, right, and maybe make things a lot more efficient, maybe give information access to a lot of people, identify experts, et.

Speaker 3

Cetera, the results to develop new medicines.

Speaker 2

Yeah, totally, it's so great. So maybe the mission has something to do with health, and AI plays an important component of it. I guess what's strange though, is that

AI itself creates its own potential pitfalls. I mean, the industry, as you mentioned, is obsessed with the pitfalls of its own making, right, Yeah, and so there is almost no way that AI can just be a tool in the service of some other mission because almost everyone who knows something about AI sees potential for extreme exacerbation of inequality, potentially AI robots that will be misaligned and want to

kill us all when they have sufficient capabilities. Yeah, right, and so like on the one hand, like, yes, as the technology, it might fit into some of these other big missions, But on the other hand, it sort of feels like it has there has to be some like AI specific goal of like where do we want this technology to go or how do we how do we curb it or whatever it is. It seems very distinct.

Speaker 3

No, totally, and I do think the unusual part of this moment in time, and a lot of people will argue that maybe it's marketing or whatever, but you do see the big Tech CEO is like basically going on TV and saying like, we as a whole society need to figure out what we want to do here.

Speaker 2

And I don't think it is marketing or just marketing because A there's already this very big tech backlash, right, so like if we're like, it's not working, you know, if the idea is, oh, we want to plump our valuations, so we do that by saying that TAM is all human labor.

Speaker 3

And human life.

Speaker 2

Yeah, well, you're really upsetting a lot of people by saying this. It's not that's not obviously good, and b you know, it's we've written about or talked about. You know, some of these big labs, like they were founded from day one with the premise that this is not normal technology, which is why it's like housed in a nonprofit or something like this. So I tend to think that when the CEOs of these companies talk about this stuff, they

kind of mean what they say. They two are they two are concerned.

Speaker 3

I mean I also worry without some sort of government intervention or government strategy here, we are going to get to that situation where we deploy AI and because we're not fixing the underlying system, we're just sort of nippling at the edges and making it worse. Per that idea of like, Okay, the insurance bot is going to talk to the hospital bot and both of them are going to say that they're streamlining the billing process for medical services.

But because we're all doing the same thing without actually fixing how medical bills work and who pays for what in the US, like, it's just going to be bots fighting bots. No one's going to benefit from that.

Speaker 2

No, and most likely there will be sort of you know, just ongoing increase complexity. It's bots all the way bot's all the way down.

Speaker 3

All right, shall we leave it there?

Speaker 2

Let's leave it there.

Speaker 4

Okay.

Speaker 3

This has been another episode of the Authoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

Speaker 2

And I'm Jill Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. Follow our guest Mariana Matsukato at Matsukato m follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Kerman armand dash Ol Bennett at Dashbot, Cale Brooks at Kale Brooks and Kevin Lizano at Kevin Lloyd Lisano. And for more odd Laws content, go to Bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots for the daily newsletter and all of our episodes, and you can chat about all of these topics twenty four to seven in our discord Discord dot gg slash out Lots.

Speaker 3

And if you enjoy odd Lots, if you like it when we define state capacity, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

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