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Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast.
I'm Joe Wisenthal, and I'm Tracy Alloway.
Tracy US exceptionalist. Like, to my mind, the big question for investors is, like we've had this fifteen year plus run of where it's like the only game in town has been you invested in the US, you did not get paid for diversification. Arguably, you didn't even get paid for diversification within the US because you should have just been in techtocs the entire time. Yeah, but I really feel like this is the moment where people are asking, like,
is this one trade that's worked out so well? Is it coming to an end?
You know what? I really like? I like talking about US exceptionalism in markets because no one immediately starts debating like the definition of US exceptionalism. That drives me crazy, right because in the broader realm of like just some politics or society or life, like, is the U s exciy?
But in markets it's unambiguous. Yes, in markets it's unambiguous. The US assets have just been where you want to be for a long time.
So not only have US equities outperformed recently, but they've really come to dominate the market as a whole, like as a proportion of the market. So the entire world, you know, even with US stocks falling recently, the entire world basically still has an overweight on America.
The world is overweight. No, I mean, it's true, true. And if you're a global manager and your benchmark is the MSc, i AWS or whatever, you know, it's still in large party US trade. By the way, I was looking at the Bank of America Fund manager survey today, which is one of my favorites, and after two straight years of long mag seven being identified by fund manager Jersey is the perceived most crowded trade and this most recent month was gold, which was really interesting.
So it's finally changed right after it. Yeah, that was the thing because like for years and years and years, everyone was like, oh fangs like big text, so crowded like, and the suggestion was don't even bother buying because the valuation is just so eyewatering at the moment. But in actuality, if you wanted to not even outperform, but like meet your benchmar that was the only trade was by tech.
This is the true pain trade. Right, because it's like everybody is log tech, everybody is overweight tech. How could you make money buy tech? And yet you still had to buy tech just to keep up? And so now there's the question is the pain trade reverse? Because if there's so many people are so into tech and so into the US, can they actually make the risk and take the move of like, you know what, I'm going to overweigh Germany or I'm gonna buy Chinese stocks or
whatever it is. And these are I think this is the moment where like you have to get this call right, This is the call of the.
Moment, and you haven't really had to do that before. Now things are getting interested, right.
We all know the backdrop of all this, so we don't really have to do that in the intro. But I'm very excited about our guests. We're still here in London. We are going to be speaking with Ozon Turman. Here's the vice chair of Global Macro at Deutsche Bank, and he talks and thinks about all of these questions with his clients all the time. They're going to get a slice of what he's thinking about. Ozon, thank you so much. Great to be here with you in person.
Wonderful to be here. Honestly, I'm a big fan. I listen to you guys all the time. My clients and friends are big fens. Is great to be here. This is my hometown.
This is very important to us. I say that we're sorry when no guests say this on the episode. We hate when they say it before the recording starts. He's like, that was a total waste. Do you agree with the premise that I set up that this is essentially the big question that everyone has to grapple with right now? In markets?
We fought with doubts and quite tiringly.
Sorry to exhausted, We're exhausted too.
I mean we were very exhausted after deliberation day, but even before all that, we were exhausted from how wrong the whole jen to Gen twenty consensus went. Everybody and their brother were believing SMP would go anywhere between seven thousand to six thousand, five hundreds and ty US ten year would go to five percent. It kind of did,
but for all the wrong reasons. And then Eurote the other right and everybody who's saying parity believe me politely, deep inside, they were believing zero point ninety five that dollar CNH would go to eight. I can go on and on and why right, First of all, this US exceptionalism, we can go into take it as well, But first
and foremost it was about fiscal expansion. US was the one, the big one, printing the most, especially after the Homerican and on top yes, the Magnificent Seven, the wonderful Silicon Valley story, and belief that Germany, Europe and China, for different reasons, would never match the same fiscal ambitions. All these three things I mentioned are completely turned on their heads.
From deep seek to Germany's one in fact one point one trillion, to China holding onto their currency and choosing more fiscal all the consensus traits and views are thrown into the water.
It is true. In January we recorded that episode with the ECB's chief economist and it was basically about all the challenges facing Europe. And then like two months later, European stocks are surging. Everyone's getting very excited about that market. I have what I imagine might be a difficult question, but maybe it's not for you. How much of this has to do with things being really bad in the States versus things actually going well in Europe?
I really like that question. It's not a difficult question. Actually it's a key question. At the very beginning of the year, it was more about the rest of the world doing such better than expected. Germany step is a huge step. After the election, I held a micro dinners in Frankfurt, as you do, and both are big cheeses. And some of our key clients really did not see
this coming. Maybe three hundred billion, maybe four hundred billion, mainly on defense after the shocking mini but infrastructure, health, education was hardly mentioned. Something like one point one trillion. My head of rates trading was throwing that out as an idea, which was quickly pushed back. Then the Hamburg local elections happened and right away Merz came up with
that numbers and before the new parliament sets in. That's sometimes these words hyper bowls are used too much, but that was a historic step on top of China deep seek. That was a big, big development. I mean I was jumping up and down on my Bloomberg on Saturday and Sunday of that weekend. Whatever you want to believe. I mean, maybe they'll do it for five, maybe they do it for fifty. They definitely don't do it for two billion or one trillion, right, So Deep Seek will change the
world for Magnificent seven and all of us consumers. But then to Tracy's question, recently it's becoming more about us hurting itself, us hurting its soft power, US creating a confidence crisis in a way. With full respect to Scott Bessant, who's been a dear client friend as well, who's been to some of my New York mac readiners, when he says what mag seven goes through a court has got nothing to do with Mega is more about a deep
seak issue, I would kindly disagree with that. Of course, Deep Seek, as I told you, has got many factors to do with it, but Tariff's much more than people expected, ended up shooting us on its own leg.
Is Deep Seek about deep seak or is it a metonym for the rise of competitive Chinese tech?
I think more for the letter, But my friends that I do trust in beyond the market yours from the start believed that it was It was real. Some things, it did much better than Chatchibt, and I think us since it has given me my education as well. The first reaction to it was the US. I know this is for real, it may help all of us. Let's compete. So in that sense it was good for humanity as well. But yes, that was the first step in the in
this year in which China said hey, I'm here. Then the second big step was last Wednesday, I mean Joint Tracey last Wednesday, unfortunately, five six hours before this, when I woke up to see the China fix to see if they devalued big or not. And when I was leave to see they haven't, then I looked at US ten year as you do, and Euro dollar and then I didn't unfortunately sleep why.
Because I didn't sleep that either. I was on my couch updating my Bloomberg gap on my phone, just looking at.
Ten Imagine imagine if we did this one week, because US ten year had gone to four to fifty five and at the same time dollar was weakening. So even that Sunday, three days ago, I kind of knew this was the vibe. Some people were really worried about it, but I didn't see. I didn't see in two days dollar melting like that, and at the same time US long ends being basically lost ten and thirty. That is my troa. I grew up in emerging markets. My first
responsibility was emerging markets again, no more hyperbole. That was emerging markets like trading that stage, you know, I almost wanted to shout out responsibility, like almost like an AMC to the market. Somebody needs to blink, somebody needs to come. I thought it could be fed and right that afternoon President blinked for the first time. Yeah.
You know what else was very emerging markets e that week, you know, having policymakers calling for rate cuts when the dollar was falling and yields were growing up, like that is classic EM right, Well, I.
Was thinking that if we were classic EM, wouldn't be IMF peoples be calling for rate hikes and cuts in that environment? Would they say, oh, you know, you need an independent central bank that like is committed to orthodoxy. You got a hike at these.
Environment that, my friend, you guys are in London, We're honored. That, unfortunately, is the trust moment. We went through that in this island just three years ago. But even then, at the height of the panic, when quite justifiably somewhere calling for a hike, Bank of England instead chose que. At that time as well, people said, oh that may be inflation at the end, et cetera. But that ended up calming
things down. I do believe, first of all, last week, if President didn't blink and tan year and thirty content to sell off with the dollars selling off em style, I think FED would have come definitely, and the QT I mean that we can talk about that. I think that they will do that right away in May anyway. But I think they would do q E as well, not cut. I think probably doesn't want to cut because of all the inflation growth dynamics, but they would have
done that. And I don't agree with some of my dear client friends who say even QE inflationary wouldn't long and react to that even more. Maybe they are kindly talking their book if we have. If you go through that kind of episode, a QE may calm things down. But Trump blinked two or three times, so I'm not too sure. Famous last words, we'll go through that fat QI stage. Now. There's a big, big, big debate already
in the market. Even though my dear friends are tighter than and wounded, do you play for the next leg to come one more quote unquote attack towards four fifty and higher in US ten year much more importantly five percent and higher in thirty years. Or do recession warriors and growth warries always outweigh Is it now when warriors peak? Is it now time to receive I kind of have a lean towards this the letter, and it has won by twenty five base points as I speak, So something may have become.
One of the reasons we wanted to talk to you is because you are constantly speaking and arguing over these trading ideas with your clients. And I guess I'm curious about the arguing. Yes, I guess I'm curious. Is anyone buying the Trump administration argument that like, Okay, we're taking some short term pain in exchange for longer term better economic growth. Is that something that people like are actually positioning for. Is that resonating at all with your clients?
Again, very good question. Up until mid February end of February, a lot of them did. Now, we don't think about it, but you know, you're at one, thirteen, one fifteen back then told even one ten year old was like, come on, you know, calm down, et cetera. Because people did believe tariffs have to be inflationary. Market is not believing market is not pricing it, that's why it's not happening, et cetera,
et cetera. Then credibility started to become an issue when you start with Canada and Mexico, and when you don't mention China that much, then you decide to do something on Canada and Mexico even though market and most economists are revolting. You immediately step back, delayed for one month. You start losing credibility. Then people start relaxing about deliberation. Day you come up with this big sign with very you know, let's say creative way of calculating it, and
you hit China and Asia the most. Then people say there's a credibility year.
Actually this reminds me because you and I met for coffee in New York City like three or four weeks ago, and I think one of the comments at the time and now that this seems like ancient history, but the thinking at the time was like, oh, it's interesting. Trump is hammering care in Mexico a lot more rhetorically than he has China. Maybe he's gonna go easy on China. And I had forgotten that that was actually in the discourse even like three weeks ago.
I do remember our conversation as well, and you made me think too because when I said, I still believe, like, look, I think for this year, this yours, us ex exceptions in trade is here to stay. It's not just a one quarter thing. Because that I heard a lot as well, was on good call. We like your blue mega hat, but it's just one month, it's just two months. This is just three months. Yea, well now it's one fifteen,
et cetera. But then you told me, look, China, they're doing a lot better in ev and solar, they're tried starting to do better in in tech, in fiscal, so maybe we are not that exceptional after all you had told me. And then also on that going easy on China, he was trying to hide these cards. Then he went seventh years. But China is playing a good one if a lot of people back to that Wednesday when we didn't sleep, a lot of people fear that either that
Wednesday or that Thursday, China would be value big. To be fair to both my research and trading Perry Malica, we really believe that people shouldn't exaggerate. They would hold they would hold the ground. And it was to their advantage to choose fiscal more so far so right that, and that also proving making things quite difficult for the president, Like even this morning, right I opened up, Okay, it's more colorful for Tracy and Joe. Not wonderful, but SMP
down seventeen as back down three hundred and fifty. And then as I was walking to the tube, China may talk to you, guys if you show respect immediately smally seventy points.
By the way for listeners. We were recording this Wednesday, April sixteenth. It is ten fifty eight London time, five fifty eight New York City time. We always have to get these in.
Yeah.
I think it's so funny. We actually have to include the exact time now, which we didn't have to do before.
You usuld just do days. Yeah. I like that before ECB, before Pubble sticks in Chicago.
Yeah, exactly. Well, okay, So on the tech front, one thing I don't get is so much of the American exceptionalism trade has been about AI enthusiasm and this idea that America has a head start and no real competitors, at least up until the unleashing slash arrival of Deep Seek in Europe. We still haven't really seen a real contender in the AI space. I think that's fair to say, And there has been this long running disappointment that Europe is just not where other places like the US and
China are when it comes to cutting edge technology. That hasn't changed as far as I can tell, but it seems like investors are kind of willing to overlook that. Or maybe they think that US isolationist political policy and the idea that Europe is going to have to come together to fight Russia and you make up for a less active US. Maybe that's going to be the thing that sparks technological advance a.
Bit of both. I think, first of all, especially Germany, about Europe can invent itself. That's going to take a little bit of time. In the meantime, things like ARNI media, so things like lvmh airms have to carry outs which didn't happen yesterday because of what's going on with China, so it will need time. At the moment, Europe does AI, but does the chips, like the part of the chips that helps the asmls and tsmcs of the world. Germany
doesn't necessarily have its own asml SO. But at the same time, yeah, this is a country, at least the country Germany, but overall continent that has shown that it can reinvent itself. It's not going to happen in two three months. But all these for the pass, all these unforced errors America is making, is giving the old continent sometime.
Europe is arguably now the leading I mean with that clearly the most advanced place in the world for aerospace technology. And we had those headlines today. Are sorry yesterday about China halting deliveries of Boeing. Already Boeing was falling behind airba Is, largely due to operational problems. There is clearly still some just sort of like classical industrial might on
the continent. Much of an aerospace probably you know, engines, other parts that feel like areas for potential further growth.
Agreed. Look, I go back and forth between three categories. Two categories. Category one is you know, after having a great four month, I'll be wrong. US exceptionalism will be fully back. This was all a joke America, America. Yeah. Category two for reasons like you outlined, Europe European industrialism, China will continue to lead the lead the pack. To be honest, it's going much better than I would have taught. This much outperformance didn't happened since nineteen eighty, et cetera.
It's going to be continued team and Category three USA in America will take everything down. It will be such a sea is confidence the market crisis that with all the respect to European aerospace, is that the Danish.
Kill Globar place.
I go back on how can you not you go back and forth these three or two categories. My gut feel and reasoning still is that category to the broad team of twenty twenty five will win because why I think President will continue to blink. And also I have a backstop now. I do believe if things get very ugly five percent and more US thirty or ugly in US said will come with with Q At this Collins last Friday, she gave a hint. She said the one
more world fear ambitiously whatever the world. She didn't just say watching We're definitely what she was the first one to give. Most investors believe that they could come with more steps. And then Waller. I know that now Waller people are half joking about is he really saying it or is he love being for the job? Yeah, yeah, but he's you know, he's I think he does believe it. He's a respected man, and he did hint that cuts can be frontloaded if things get uglier. So, first of all,
I believe blinks will continue from the White House. But even if they don't, I think we have the backing of the of the FED.
You know, I mentioned in the intro this idea that the world has sort of de facto overweight the US just because of the it's the market size and it's waiting in a bunch of different benchmarks. Does that provide like some cushion for US equities selling off, like the fact that you do have index investors, passive investors that have to be hugging a certain benchmark which happens to be filled with a lot of American equities.
Completely agreed exactly, Tracy. In a simple way of putting it. I was discussing with a senior colleague yesterday. This is great because let's go right into that real location, the big team. Right, if big players were really in the big sense of the world with a big r reallocating away from the US, there will be a lot of circuit breakers in a SMP. I don't want to sound, but that is the know it would be. I'm not
sure how SMP would open tomorrow morning. So there's a difference between even these big real money so well funds trading in their own time zone and making much bigger, much longer dated decisions. So I think this letter it's more. We do want headlines, especially of emerging markets effects people. We do get excited, but through through through big reallocation,
I don't think we're there yet. That being said, there are trades, so this big it's not just my wonderful dhe funds friends fast money getting what's the world trump us queasy, It's beyond its yippy, it's it's it's more serious than that.
Yeah, No, Tracy wrote a great note about that yesterday or the day before. I can't track. It's like there's like real money, real money actually moving away.
You know.
Everyone looks for analogies to pass experiences, and this like is this like great financial crisis? Is there like a run element? Is this like COVID where it's a supply shop? Next element is this like the Liz Trust. A moment where I don't really like the term because I don't like insulting people. But you hear that term more on risk premium exists. The other you know, when when you describe okay, what if the FED comes into backstop. Another possibility is a Brexit analogy in which there's not an
immediate crisis. Really is just the start of a slow degradation of the economy. It sounds like when you're in that number two spot where it's like, okay, there's some blinking going on, there's some FED backstopping going on. That it may be that is the analogy perhaps that we should be thinking.
I mean, soft powerty is being eroded my alma mater. I'm biased on the issue about Harvard headlines, right, that doesn't help the global perception, whatever your politics is. So in that sense. In fact, when I was trying to get some sympathy from some clients while you know, forwarding around the Harvard headlines, one of them did say, did say immediate answered US's breaks it moments to your point. So for it to get more cious, uglier and GFC
like that than that is the big world. DM credits them credit that needs to shake for it to become you know that For a bit more online length.
What's the trade Because we can all sit here and talk about these big macro themes like American exceptionalism, but like you know, given some of the restrictions on large investors, and given the reality of trading in certain markets, like you know, Chinese assets, what exactly do you do here?
I think, Look, first of all, I do believe forty eight fifty in SMP may may have been a base of floor. Even if I'm wrong on that, if we go down towards that very fast, more fate blinking and c will come very fast. So I think it will bounce very very fast that I will forget that I was wrong. I continue to believe Europe and China has a lot of fiscal rooms. So I feel at the moment quite confident that Ducks MDX, the medium caps and China take will continue to weigh out for utperformed us
on race we had started discussing with Joe. I do have sympathy that receivers from here. On the long end, it will work that maybe that may be a big trade. Actually talking about despite tiredness and wound wounds, a crowded trade, scheapness still crowded because on paper, it does make sense, you know, for different reasons for US and Europe. But short end may may stay, may stay lower, and long end may get may get sold off more on that one. So I think flattened at that certain stage may give
pain to people. ECB for example, Okay, she will cut tomorrow, but I don't think there's so many unknowns right how the tariff negotiations will go, et cetera. On June. She will not blink. She will not give you the hint that this will continue on June. And if people started getting worried about the June skip there you go. That's
not gonna help your steepener. Our official call is that terminal rate in Europe is all the way down to one point five my excellent chief economists marked world does get pushed back from that in Spains and Italy is of the world, even before the recent developments and even before you went to one thirteen soft dollars. Look, we're talking big levels on on euro on end, on on swissy, on gold. But my bias is still to sell any dollar allies.
So we're talking about that Wednesday night when dollar was telling.
Off morning Wednesday morning, las Wednesday morning actually was for me.
It was Tuesday night, but I mean it spends tesday night, Tuesday night.
We all know, we all know what's luckier to you.
Yeah, yeah, I was upload that was the that was the Tuesday night. I didn't get any sleepy. And as you said, this is you're like, this is em style trading, right when you see all three equities, treasuries and the dollar going down. If we were actually talking about the US as an em if you're an analyst, as a you know, uh, cell set talk, there would be a lot more you know, there'd be a lot of talk about politics and how politics works. And you know what
is it is? There is there an independent central bank, et cetera. Like how much of the conversation is really becoming about stability of just like the sort of internal workings.
Political order, institutional strength again, radiated elements.
I mean, in that kind of sense, if we half revisits that your Tuesday night and if President sends five more tweets about foot cut right away, not good. Some people even believe on the Friday speech, I don't know now two weeks before, if President didn't tweet five minutes before the guy spoke, I mean conspiracy theory, but maybe he wouldn't. He wouldn't prefer inflation that much over growth.
So if you create that kind of fed independency question mark, it's not gonna help your It's not gonna help your trade at this moment, talking about them. If this thing goes like this, America needs friends, America finance needs friends. Powell and Bestent when they auction need friends. So talking about the m right whenever the president these days, things
can change. As a very successful political person, needless to say, but as of now, whatever the topic is, from tariffs to Powell to Harvard, when he talks and writes too much about an issue, it doesn't help with this capital Tracy's capital allocation situation. Real money sells dollars mathematics, and at the moment he needs real money to buy his dogs.
I'm not going to say that the US is an emerging market, but I am going to ask you, with all of your emerging market experience, what advice do you have for people who are trying to trade the US at the moment.
I mean, watch the three key people, Trump, Powell, She who's going to blink when I think that would be my advice? Even a week ago, Trump already showed that maybe he has less cars. He's blinking. Then the second thing is, you know, I mentioned Collins, I mentioned Wohlers and not Cuts. But I do believe that Qis is out there, so I think we have the backing off the Fed. And then finally she even though okay, he
has the cards, but this is not good. Right, at some stage they need to talk even the basic what we quote unquote expected after this, after the president rallies last year ten percent for everyone else, sixty percent China even that's much better than this. So at some stage there will be that summit between between them and we will be at a better stage. So this all, this
all makes sense. That that's why I'm not category three. Yeah, that's why I'm You know, we will be okay, maybe fourty eight fifty will hold, but the rest of the world and Europe will do better. If I believe that Trump wouldn't blink because of ideology, whatever, If I believe that power will say your problem, not even q E, and if I believe that China would play a very very even even a tougher hand, then I would fear, Yeah, I would fear breaks it or owe it like seeings more I don't.
I just have one last question. It's kind of a curveball, and I'm certainly not asking you to like make your call or trade.
You know.
One thing that I've noticed though over the last couple of weeks is that bitcoin has not actually been as tech stock likes it. I used to joke that bitcoin
traded like three tech stocks in a trench code. And I'm wondering, when you talk to people, we all know it's a speculative trade whatever, that's my point, But when you talk to people, particularly in ems, do you get the sense that people take it for real as a monetary asset, that they want to have some allocation to it that's separate from all of this.
Can I answer that and then add one more team that I wanted? Yeah, So bitcoin answer is it was just going to It was about to become even more serious in a good sense. It was becoming even more of a digital goal. Not just my some of my dear client friends and their big PA portfolios, but some institutionalization was taking place because of what they believed Trump
would bring to the table. But then my answer to Tracy on credibility on time, there's the reason why all these you know, if he did these China Canada tariffs on Gen twenty, we would probably want to trade first at one or two euro dollar. Now we're trading at one fifteen because crediblity is gone. Yeah, a little bit similar now with the whole bitcoin situation, back to the back of the class. If you're a big believer on a big bounce in the market, maybe you would you know,
trade it in your own portfolio, etcetera, et cetera. But some of the funds getting by and seutside getting more serious about it as an asset in an institution site. I think that took a hit this other team that I want to bring up so that I don't regret tax cuts. So you know that again talking about a big veteran, you know, one of us big marketplayer best. And there's the reason why he's saying, literally saying to your colleague Hordern, this whole year has been tariff start
of tariffs. We need to talk, you know, it's all. We need to talk tax cut, tax cut, the regulation, the reregulation. Well you're the man, you're going to change the errative to that. So he's claiming that they're moving fast on that, like in Tromp one point zero. That's going to be important. Whether it's going to be just the extension of the existing tax cuts or will he beyond tips and stuff? Will he bring something new to the table. We can discuss whether that's good or not,
whether this thing, this economy is morphisic cleansing. But yes, if they beyond words, if they can succeed on changing the narrative from tariff madness to more the how tax cut deregulation, how fast it is going passing, can it be done before July fourth, et cetera. And that's going to help the very not the not well, not what the screens are telling you now, but that would help a SMP and.
NASA even there though we're getting confused mixed signals.
Right.
We had a story overnight where the Trump administration was said to be looking at tax hikes for people earning more than a million dollars a year. So I can see why people have forgotten like that part of the narrative, because it is a little bit confused.
If you look for Trump two point zero, it has been for the economy team, it has been a stumbling stock, stumbling start, Like they.
Haven't a stumbling start and a stumbling stock exactly.
It hasn't be on the statement, It hasn't been a Michael Phelps stuck.
It was InterMine. Thank you so much for coming on odd looks. This is like the perfect moment, perfect guest. Really appreciate it.
Thank thanks so much.
That was fun.
It was a lot of fun. That was a fun conversation. I like the sort of the three the three scenarios that he laid out. And you know, I don't like everyone else. You know, I changed my view now that anyone should ever listen to my view because I've never gotten anything right. But whatever I feel like usually like changes by the hour at this point, Yeah.
Which I think is fair, right, Like, that's the reasonable response to the flood of news headlines that we're getting. I should I feel like we should just add odd lots does not provide any trading again US right, this
is our disclaimer. But that said, I do like one thing that seems certain to me really is the higher term premium in the treasury market and the idea of a steepener also because like I think the US is just gonna have to issue like even more short term over time for a variety of reasons, one of which could be foreign investors stepping away from the treasury market more than they have already been doing. So that's one
to watch. And then just on the Bitcoin point that you were making, I've been thinking about this too over the past couple of weeks, Like I have been eagerly waiting to see what the next big bitcoin talking point is, because this is one of the one of the real strengths of bitcoin is it always comes up with a new narrative, right and like, well.
It can't be Yeah, it's kind of people have called it gold.
Kind of digital goal, and it's like.
People should look at the chart. It's not trading as bad and as nazdak like as it had been fun yeah, which makes me wonder if it's a little bit acclaring to some of those save had properties people supposedly claim.
Yeah, but it needs something like pithy for Trump tariff world, and we're still waiting for that. But I'm sure there are people working on it right now.
You Know.
The other thing is when I think about all of these, so there's two things that I think about. One is there is this scenario that I don't think gets talked about as much, which is like the global depression trade or the global recession trade, right, And so the idea that it's so disruptive and the US is so important that the idea of it just being like a sort of US recession, which many people obviously think, it actually not that it actually is something.
Which seems like a realistic possibility.
And then the other thing is that like when everything looks sort of bleak and there really isn't much cutting edge tech in Europe and US is maybe shooting itself in the foot, and there are limits to the degree to which anyone can really invest in China. It's not surprising that gold is now perceived like that's the one thing, right, Like the one thing that will be there for you is if you have a yellow, shiny metal in your safe, and it's not surprising that that's railing.
Plus gold is just shiny as you really nice, right, Yeah, it has that physical attraction, that sense of comfort in times of uncertain Well, you know.
We went to the jewelry the jewelry store, I guess that was like February or March or whatever, and I would try it on that seventy five thousand dollars gold necklace, and.
I regret I get really dumb not.
Buying it because a bunch of people told told me it look good on me. But be more importantly, that'd be like an eighty five thousand dollars gold necklace today.
Joe, you know we're not that far from one of London's jewelry districts. We can we can go shopping right after this. It's about ten minutes away.
I'm really underweight gold, Tracy, so I might actually I.
Might have to do that.
All right, shall we leave it there?
Let's leave it there.
This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.
And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. Get more of Ozone's thoughts, check out his LinkedIn ozon Tarman check him out there. Follow our producer's Carmen Rodriguez at Carmel Erman, Dashel Bennett at Dashbot and Kelbrooks and Keilbrooks.
Thank you to our London producer Moses Ondam More Oddlovs Coontent Go to Bloomberg dot com slash odd lots, where we have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes, and you can chout about all of these topics twenty four to seven in our discord discord dot gg slash odd Lots.
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