Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday, Thursday, and Friday
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Buy Now Pay Later is everywhere nowadays. Companies like Affirm, Afterpay, and Klarna have brought installment payments into everyday life, while big banks and tech firms also now racing into the space. With the market growing so rapidly, there are obvious concerns over whether BNPL is adding a new layer of 'hidden leverage' to the economy, giving online shoppers an alternative to more traditional financing like credit cards and bank loans. Data about BNPL usage is notoriously limited, and BNPL ...
In the past couple of years, the world has fully awoken to the incredible economic and technological growth exhibited by China. But what lessons are there for America? Are there even lessons for America? Dan Wang, research fellow at Stanford University's Hoover History Lab, has probably been one of the foremost commentators and observers on China's rise, having taken seriously their efforts to push the technological frontiers for years now. Now, he's out with a new book BREAKNECK: China's Quest ...
This episode delves into the booming world of online prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which facilitate betting on a wide range of events from pop culture phenomena like Taylor Swift's engagement to political outcomes. Experts discuss how these platforms operate, their significant trading volumes, and the high-profile investors backing them. The conversation also addresses the contentious regulatory landscape, past skirmishes with federal agencies, and the profound ethical questions surrounding their accuracy, potential for bias, and influence on real-world events.
The post-Covid inflation will prove to be a treasure trove for academic economists, as they study what drives inflation, and the power that central banks have to contain it once it gets going. At this year's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, UC Berkeley professor Emi Nakamura presented a new paper — co-authored with her Berkeley colleagues Jón Steinsson and Venance Riblier — titled Beyond the Taylor Rule . The paper sought to look at the wide range of choices that global central banks made in dea...
Former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss reflects on her brief time in office, criticizing the economic establishment's Keynesian bias and the power of unelected institutions like the Bank of England. She defends her mini-budget, emphasizing the political impossibility of spending cuts and advocating for supply-side reforms to boost growth. Truss also discusses the unfulfilled promises of Brexit and the need to shake up the British state, media, and free speech protections.
Criticism and threats to Federal Reserve independence have been building for some time in this administration. But it was taken to a new height on August 25, when Trump posted that he intended to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a Biden appointee. According to our guest, Columbia Law Professor Lev Menand, this is a big deal that has created an immediate crisis. The Trump administration's argument is that it's firing Lisa Cook "for cause" due to allegations (and these are just allegations at this poi...
The annual Jackson Hole symposium is, formally speaking, an academic conference. Economists and central bankers gather to discuss the most important, cutting edge ideas in monetary policy. But there was certainly a different feel this year because of the relentless attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell coming from President Trump. The whole premise of central bank independence is becoming a live question again. And without central bank independence, almost all of the more academic discussions fe...
According to Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin, much of the time central banking is straightforward. Sometimes it's clear that rate cuts are needed. Sometimes it's clear that rate hikes are needed. Other times everything is going great, and central bankers don't have much to worry about. Right now though, things are not straightforward. There are signs of labor market softening. But also there are reasons to be concerned that inflation pressure is building yet again. In times li...
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is still more concerned about the inflation side of the Fed's mandate than he is about the employment side. This is noteworthy because in general markets are expecting rate cuts to come soon, and also Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking in Jackson Hole, put more weight on risks to the labor market. In this episode recorded at the conference, Goolsbee explains why he has some concerns about whether the inflation embers have been fully stamped out (he's particula...
We're still at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, where we just heard Fed Chair Jerome Powell's big speech. The speech -- which opened the door to a September rate cut -- proved to be a dovish surprise to the market and stocks are now soaring because of it. But why did Powell decide to focus on what he sees as "downside" risks to the labor market as opposed to "upside" risks to inflation? On this episode, we speak to Bloomberg TV's Michael McKee, wh...
It's Jackson Hole time again, when the most prominent minds in monetary policy meet in an idyllic Wyoming setting for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual symposium on monetary policy. For markets, the main event tends to be the speech from the Fed Chairman. But beyond that, there's always a theme that central bankers and academics are tasked to discuss. So to raise the curtain for this year's event, we spoke with none other than Jeffrey Schmid, the president and CEO of the Kansas Ci...
This episode explores the often-untold story of startup failures, highlighting how most new ventures die without a grand exit. Guest David Johnson, an insolvency specialist, explains the alternatives to formal bankruptcy, such as an Assignment for the Benefit of Creditors, and shares captivating examples of selling esoteric assets from failed tech companies, including unexpected items like human heads and deep-frozen biological samples. He also discusses the incentives for founders and boards, and the crucial importance of early intervention in winding down a company effectively.
Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with Alaska Permanent Fund CEO Deven Mitchell and CIO Marcus Frampton about the unique $85 billion fund established to manage Alaska's oil fortune. They delve into its evolution from fixed income to diversified investments, its role as the state's largest revenue source, and the ongoing political debates surrounding its annual dividend payouts to residents. The discussion also covers the fund's cautious approach to private assets, its hope for market dislocations, and offers insights on potential federal sovereign wealth fund creation.
You can kind of understand why it's so hard to build housing in New York City. There isn't much available land. It's already pretty built up. And then, add in the fact that so many people want to live in New York, and you can understand why it's so expensive. But what's the deal with Alaska? There seems to be plenty of land. And population has actually been in a a general state of decline. And yet, housing remains strained, with many of the same affordability problems seen elsewhere in the count...
The podcast explores the highly confusing current macro environment, where conflicting signals make central bank policy challenging. Discussions range from recent inflation data and labor market trends to the economic implications of tariffs and large deficits, particularly considering the rise of AI investment. The episode also delves into the critical issue of Federal Reserve independence amidst political pressure and its influence on long-term interest rates, offering insights into why markets remain optimistic despite economic uncertainties.
We're in an age where shocks can occur on both the supply side and the demand side. On the supply side, the causes are well known. Pandemics, trade wars, and climate disruption have exposed the frailty of supply chains in goods too numerous to list. On the demand side, the tendency for certain goods to suddenly go "viral" among consumers can be impossible to predict. Take Dubai chocolate. The craze for pistachio-filled candy came out of nowhere, in part thanks to social media. Our guests on this...
We're interested in trucking here at Odd Lots. It's one of those industries that can tell us a lot about the economy, both in terms of the short-term cycle, and also long-term structural trends. Of course, we know that the industry is prone to big boom and bust cycles. And Alaska itself -- driven so much by oil and natural resource extraction -- is also known for its boom and bust cycles. So on our trip there, we spoke with Josh Norum, the CEO of Sourdough Express, an Alaska based trucking compa...
Alaska is no stranger to supply chain issues and a higher cost of living. Almost everything has to be imported into the state, incurring longer lead times and extra transportation costs — and that’s even before adding in the new tariffs from the Trump administration. In this episode, we speak with Dave Cavitt, the founder and CEO of Furniture Enterprises of Alaska, which owns furniture stores for brands including La-Z-Boy, Mattress Firm, Ashley’s Furniture, and many more. We talk to him about th...
Alaska is one of the states in the Federal Reserve's 12th District, which is headquartered in San Francisco. For Mary Daly, the head of the SF Fed, the state right now is a leading indicator for the US economy overall. In an interview recorded on a trip to Anchorage, Daly tells us what she's learning from businesses in the state, how it relates to the rest of the US economy, and how she uses what she's learning on the ground in order to best guide monetary policy. We also get her big picture vie...
The Chinese Communist Party is probably one of the most difficult entities in the world to grasp due to its opacity of its inner workings. A new book from Joseph Torigian, a research fellow at Stanford's Hoover History Lab and an associate professor at American University, sheds light on the entity by examining the life of Xi Zhongxun, the father of Xi Jinping. The elder Xi was one of the earliest and important players in the revolution, and his life trajectory -- having spent 16 years out of po...
Late last week, Donald Trump shocked Wall Street by firing Erika McEntarfer, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency responsible for publishing some of America's most important economic data. The firing came after the BLS released a weaker than expected jobs report for July, with just 73,000 new jobs added for the month (compared to forecasts for 103,000). The bureau also revised jobs numbers for the prior two months down by nearly 260,000 jobs. Trump called the data "rigged." But...
When it comes to tech startups, you often hear about VCs making a ton of money, or founders experiencing life-changing exits. But something is changing in the world of AI. Now it's the engineers themselves getting pay packages that can be in the 9-figure range. Why is this? Why is it happening? How is it changing the culture of Silicon Valley and business more generally? On this episode, we speak with John Coogan and Jordi Hays, the co-hosts of TBPN, a daily show about technology, which covers t...
Everybody knows that New York City has a ton of pizzerias. And yet, new ones are opening up all the time. Why do we need more? And how is there still money to be made? On this episode, we speak with Alex Xenopolous, Evan Xenopolous, and James Shields, three restaurant entrepreneurs that recently opened up Xeno's Pizza, a shop close to the Bloomberg offices in Manhattan. We talked about everything from location scouting, to the cost of ingredients, to oven technology, the state of New York City, ...
Bakeries are great microcosms of the economy. There's lots of labor involved. You need commodities like flours and eggs, plus energy for your ovens. You need capital investment to get the ovens in the first place, and you need sustained consumer demand to keep you in business. Put it all together and you have a business that tells you a lot about what's going on right now. In this episode, we speak with Andy Kadin, who is the owner of the Los Angeles-based bakery Bub & Grandma's, as well as ...
Stablecoins are emerging as one of the most active areas of cryptocurrencies. The idea of using blockchain rails to transmit money has captured the attention of legacy financial institutions as well as policymakers, as evidenced by the recent passage of the GENIUS Act, which builds out a regulatory framework for that business. But what are the opportunities. And how do stablecoin providers actually make money? On this episode, we speak with Jeremy Allaire, the co-founder and CEO of Circle, which...
Cameron Johnson from Tidalwave Solutions provides an on-the-ground perspective on Chinese manufacturing's counter-strategy to US tariffs. He explains how Chinese firms are upskilling to produce higher-margin goods domestically while expanding lower-end production to other Asian countries, effectively replicating their vast supply chain ecosystems. The discussion highlights China's proactive regional diplomacy, its significant lead in AI and robotics, and how US policies have inadvertently cemented China's influence globally.
Tension between the US and China has been building for some time. But so far this has been limited to issues of trade. The US has imposed tariffs on China. It's imposed restrictions on technology exports. In turn, China has imposed some of its own tariffs, and also limited the export of things like rare earth metals. But historically speaking, many hot wars have their roots in some kind of trade-related tensions between nations. So the risk exists that a trade war one day becomes a hot war. So h...
Today, the cost of energy — things like electricity, or gas, or heating oil — is considered an essential piece of economic data. But it turns out that for much of America's history, we've been overlooking a crucial economic figure: the cost of firewood. For decades, firewood was the dominant energy source powering the US economy. And yet there aren't really any official statistics about firewood prices. After all, how would you even go about putting a price tag on something that's growing in a l...
Hosts Joe Wiesenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with Alliance Bernstein strategist Inigo Fraser Jenkins about his new research on the confluence of major global shifts. They delve into reversing secular trends, the impact of demographic changes on growth, and the growing concerns over government debt potentially undermining the dollar's safe haven status. The discussion extends to climate risk, AI's economic implications, and how investors can adapt their portfolios to preserve real purchasing power in a higher volatility environment.
Probably the most controversial proposal from New York City Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani is his promise to freeze the rent on a substantial chunk of rent-stabilized units in the city. There are concerns that this will cause a major downshift in housing development and that landlords that are heavily exposed to rent-stabilized units will be driven deeper into distress. But then separately there are major real estate owners who may be threatened by other aspects of Mamdani's real esta...
