Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday, Thursday, and Friday
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A few years ago, governments and corporations were brimming with optimism about the prospect of getting to net-zero in the efforts against climate change. Today, you hear a lot less about that. And while there's renewables getting added to the mix all the time, one energy source that's really booming is natural gas. And coal is booming too. So what happened? And is there any prospect of the world getting back on track? On this episode, we speak with acclaimed energy historian Daniel Yergin, curr...
Some economists expected that the dollar would strengthen when the tariffs were imposed. Instead, the opposite happened. The dollar fell sharply and it's been a poor performer all year. Concurrently, it's been a great year for a lot of dollar-denominated assets, like stocks. Even US Treasuries have rallied this year. So what's going on? On this episode, we speak with recurring Odd Lots guest Hyun Song Shin, Economic Adviser and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank for Interna...
The 2010s saw economic weakness across Europe's periphery. Countries like Greece, Spain, Italy, and so forth were the sites of so much stress. In the 2020s, however, it's reversed. The periphery is holding up well, but the industrial core is facing stress. Germany, in particular, the old powerhouse of the continent, has been slammed by the surge in electricity costs and competition with China. Other Northern states have felt similar pain. So what is the future for Europe? Can the EU project itse...
Gold has been surging. Risky assets (with a few minor hiccups) have also been surging. And yet, central bankers (most notably the Fed) are in rate cutting mode. Why is this? And what kind of risks are being conjured up? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Raghuram Rajan, a professor at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago, as well as the former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. Rajan famously was one of the first to raise alarms prior to the Great Financial Cr...
Make sense of the world with one essential conversation, every week. Mishal Husain, one of Britain's best interviewers, brings her signature blend of curiosity and tenacity to weekly conversations with world leaders, business titans, and cultural icons, revealing who they really are and how they see the world changing around them. Follow the podcast wherever you listen, so you don't miss an episode. https://link.podtrac.com/iu94w2n4 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....
Earlier this year, we traveled along with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly on a trip to Alaska. You may remember the episodes we did with Mary at the time, as well as business and other leaders in the state. But we also had the chance to sit in with Mary while she talked with her contacts on the ground. On this special episode, you'll hear some of those discussions and get a sense of exactly what happens when a regional Fed president goes out and learns from the community. You'll hear from ...
It's nothing new for the US government to use public money to support private American companies. The Biden administration, via CHIPS and the Inflation Reduction Act, was aggressive about using loans and grants to accelerate US industry. But the Trump administration has been engaged in something more novel: taking direct stakes in US companies like Intel and MP. But what is the legal basis for such action? And what are the advantages and disadvantages of direct equity stakes? On this episode, we...
Argentina is getting bailed out again, with $40 billion of help from the Trump administration. Of course, this is a recurring phenomenon for Argentina, and this time it's happening under the free market-oriented Javier Milei, who has slashed spending to bring down inflation. So why is it in trouble again? And why is this such a recurring feature of the Argentine economy? In this episode, we speak with Greg Makoff, the author of Default: The Landmark Court Battle over Argentina's $100 Billion Deb...
Almost everyone is talking about us possibly being in a bubble. Regardless of how AI investment ultimately pan out, there is an incredible amount of retail speculative mania in the air. So, how does this environment compare to past periods of exuberance? On this episode, we speak with Andrew Ross Sorkin, the editor of Dealbook, the co-host of CNBC's Squawk Box, and the author of the new book 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History--and How It Shattered a Nation . Sorkin, who previ...
These days, there's a non-stop drumbeat of concern that China and its dominant companies will eat America's economic lunch, so to speak. Of course, this isn't the first time in our history that there were worries about a rising Asian industrial power. In the 1980s and early 1990s, there was a lot of concern about the rise of corporate Japan. And that fear was seen all over movies and pop culture, from Die Hard to the Michael Crichton novel Rising Sun . This time there is one big difference: Chin...
What changed between 2019 and 2025? Why are interest rates so much higher? Why does it seem virtually unfathomable that the Fed will return to ZIRP anytime soon? Why do investors expect this rate cut cycle to be so shallow? The answer, theoretically, is that the neutral rate of interest has gone up. But what is the neutral rate of interest, and why has it moved? On this episode, we speak with Jamie Rush of Bloomberg Economics and Tom Orlik, the Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics. They, along...
James Van Geelen shares insights from his field trip to OpenAI's Stargate data center, highlighting the unprecedented scale of infrastructure development and the reliance on on-site power generation. The discussion delves into the intricate financing deals funding these mega-projects, the economic implications of AI investment, and whether the current enthusiasm signals a bubble. It also uncovers the "picks and shovels" companies, from old-line industrials to storage providers, that are surprisingly benefiting from AI's capital-intensive demands.
This episode unpacks the complex mechanics of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, moving beyond the simple "raising rates" narrative. Joe Abate joins to explain the historical shift to an abundant reserve regime and the critical role of financial "plumbing" in policy transmission. The discussion also examines Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan's proposal to rethink the Fed funds target, considering alternatives like the tri-party repo rate, and explores the economic costs of an inefficient Fed balance sheet. Finally, the conversation touches on the rising cost of liquidity, the emerging role of stablecoins, and the global widening of swap spreads linked to fiscal unsustainability.
Terry Duffy, Chairman and CEO of CME Group, explores the evolving financial landscape, highlighting how technology and changing demographics are blurring the lines between traditional investing and speculative trading. He details CME's partnership with FanDuel to offer retail-friendly event contracts, emphasizing the importance of smaller contract sizes, ease of access, and clear regulation. Duffy also discusses the competitive treasury futures market, the limitations of perpetual futures, and the critical role of cautious innovation in a rapidly changing financial ecosystem.
Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, joins Odd Lots to discuss the surprising surge in prediction markets, highlighting Kalshi's journey through significant regulatory challenges, including suing the government to legalize election markets. He clarifies Kalshi's market-based model, distinguishing it from traditional gambling, and explains the critical role of market makers in establishing liquidity. Mansour also shares his long-term vision for Kalshi to enable trading on "everything," exploring potential institutional hedging use cases and the evolving relationship between regulated and on-chain markets.
Don Wilson, founder of DRW, presents his bold theory that GPUs will soon surpass crude oil as the world's largest commodity, necessitating a robust futures market. He details DRW's initiatives, Compute Exchange and Silicon Data, which aim to standardize GPUs and create tradable indices to enable hedging and reduce capital costs for AI innovators. Wilson also shares his skepticism about cloud-based matching engines and his conviction that all financial assets will be tokenized within five years, highlighting DRW's work with the Canton blockchain and its configurable privacy.
The podcast "IVF Disrupted" investigates Kindbody, a fertility company that sought to revolutionize IVF and egg freezing with a tech-startup approach. Backed by millions, Kindbody grew rapidly, becoming a billion-dollar unicorn. However, this Silicon Valley "move fast and break things" mentality in the intimate world of medicine led to disillusioned patients and heartbreaking consequences, explored in this compelling series.
We know that the top-tier AI labs are spending unbelievable amounts of money on talent. But what are these researchers actually working on? And how do we know that they're making progress? And furthermore, how can we even measure that progress? On this episode, we speak with Jack Morris, an AI researcher and Ph.D. candidate at Cornell University, who is also a part-time researcher at Meta. We talk about what he does, and why breakthroughs seem to be lumpy and unpredictable. We also talk about th...
This episode features Deutsche Bank's Ozan Tarman dissecting the paradoxical market trend of rising gold and US tech stocks. He attributes gold's ascent to global unease about US sovereign stability, while tech's success stems from strong corporate fundamentals, even amidst "circular" financing concerns in AI. The discussion also covers the dollar's depreciation due to hedging, the impact of tariffs, the US economy's growing dependence on asset values, and China's increasing influence as an asset class and exporter of disinflation, reshaping global monetary policy.
In recent years, retail trading of stocks has absolutely exploded. This is happening despite the fact that investors are subject to a constant stream of propaganda that individuals can't beat the market, and that the proper way to invest is through low-cost index funds that you don't pay regular attention to. More than anyone else, one man has been banging the drum (literally) for years that individuals can beat the market and are smart enough to select individual securities. That, of course, is...
This episode explores the collapse of the multilateral rules-based global trading system, which predated the Trump administration but was finalized by it. Former U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman details how China's failure to liberalize and its state-driven economic policies fundamentally altered global trade dynamics. He introduces the concept of a "polyamorous" world order, where countries like India maintain multi-aligned relationships, making global trade more complex and volatile. The discussion also covers the U.S. adopting more protectionist, industrial policies, resembling China's approach, and the associated risks and need for allied cooperation.
Henry Wang, founder of the Center for China and Globalization, discusses China's view on its global role, emphasizing economic globalization over military posturing and its efforts to foster stability. The conversation delves into China's perspective on US-China tensions, its potential as a peacemaker in conflicts like Ukraine and Israel-Gaza, and its support for multilateral organizations while also introducing new initiatives. Wang highlights Chinese concerns over US military presence and trade policies, while also advocating for China's greater economic openness.
If you look at prospectuses and earnings documents for almost any company, you're going to see a Delaware address. For more than a century, the state has been the place to go to if you're setting up a business. And in fact, Delaware has catered to these corporate clients, setting up an efficient chancery court to settle corporate disputes and producing a huge backlog of case law to act as reliable and efficient precedent. But suddenly, some companies are choosing to leave the state. Most promine...
Odd Lots investigates the "boxpocalypse" in the US, where falling box shipments suggest a challenged consumer and potential recession in consumer goods. Joined by Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ryan Fox, the hosts examine box manufacturing, pricing anomalies, and the industry's surprising role as a macroeconomic indicator. They also discuss the complexities of recycling, technological advancements, and the global outlook for packaging.
This episode features Vineer Bhansali, founder of LongTail Alpha, who shares insights from his journey from theoretical physicist to Wall Street quant. He delves into the increasing difficulty of portfolio construction, the critical role of tail risk hedging as essential insurance, and the dangers of "latent illiquidity" in bot-driven markets. Bhansali emphasizes how models create market feedback loops and warns that the erosion of Federal Reserve independence poses the biggest tail risk, with potential inflationary consequences and implications for the yield curve.
Former Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan shares his views on the Federal Reserve's rate path, explaining why a 50 basis point cut is unlikely despite a weakening labor market due to persistent inflation and supply issues. He delves into how the stock market is betting on future AI productivity, contrasting US and China's AI adoption strategies, and discusses the structural challenges facing the US power grid. Kaplan also addresses the implications of US trade policies, rising national debt, and the Fed's independence, highlighting a nuanced economic outlook.
This episode delves into the state of US and Chinese air power, analyzing China's recent military parade and the implications of new military hardware. Kelly Grieco from the Stimson Center discusses the evolution of fighter jet generations, the strategic role of drones, and the critical importance of production scale and supply chains in modern warfare. The conversation also explores the definition of air superiority, lessons from recent conflicts, and the challenges faced by the US defense industrial base.
In this episode, Josh Wolfe, co-founder of Lux Capital, provides a deep dive into the current state of the AI boom, offering contrarian views on Nvidia's valuation and the rise of edge inference. He critically examines the shift in venture capital's social contract, driven by aggressive talent acquihires by big tech and the complex alignment of incentives among LPs, VCs, and founders. Wolfe also explores the debate between open and closed source AI, the unique challenges of retaining top AI talent, and speculates on future trends like 'life courting' and the burgeoning discussion around AI rights.
For this week’s episode of Bloomberg’s Everybody’s Business , Joe Wiesenthal joins Max Chafkin and Stacey Vanek Smith to fact check President Trump’s recent claim that the “stock market needs the tariffs, they want the tariffs." Is it actually possible to tell how markets feel about tariffs? Do the markets even know themselves? The trio dives deep. Also on this episode, journalist and cultural commentator Sam Sanders of the Sam Sanders Show unpacks the lessons Hollywood is learning from its late...
Steve Englander discusses the increasing difficulty in interpreting the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report, highlighting the consistent downward revisions and the problematic "birth-death adjustment." He emphasizes the superior accuracy of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, which suggests significant overstatements in recent job creation figures. The conversation also delves into how these data inaccuracies impact Fed policy decisions, the recent sell-off in bond markets, and the differing economic outlooks and political challenges between the US and Europe.
