This week, we explain the change in our Fed call following the latest inflation data, as well as the latest views on China, and the UK. We have brought forward our call for the next Fed cut to September, following slightly dovish inflation details for July. China remains mired in low inflation and soft growth; we discuss what the rest of H2 has in store. In Europe, we look at the latest and upcoming UK data following a hawkish BoE decision, and preview the Riksbank meeting. Chapters: (US: 01:55,...
Aug 15, 2025•23 min•Season 2Ep. 244
In the week ahead, all eyes will be on US CPI data which is likely to tick up. We preview the key data releases from the UK and Europe, as well as the Norges Bank decision coming up. We discuss the contrasting outcomes that we expect from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Thailand. Finally, in a special segment in this episode, we focus on the US Dollar and why keeping a soft medium-term dollar view makes sense. Chapters: (US: 01:36, EMEA: 08:18, Asia: 14:57, FX Special Segment: 21:1...
Aug 08, 2025•31 min•Season 2Ep. 243
Following the 15% tariff announced for Europe, further tariff rate announcements for India and South Korea have followed. For global markets, our focus remains on tariff announcements, key macro data and central banks. In this episode, we discuss these developments, as well as the Bank of England policy meeting, where a rate cut is widely expected. In Asia, the focus is on a policy meeting in India, inflation and key earnings data in Japan. Chapters: (US: 01:41, EMEA: 07:34, Asia: 12:49).
Aug 01, 2025•20 min•Season 2Ep. 242
Following a number of trade deals announced in the last week, financial markets seem to be taking the news in a positive manner with equity markets continuing to edge higher and bond yields remaining in fairly narrow ranges. However, one bond market that has stood out is Germany where yields have jumped following hawkish ECB commentary after their July rate meeting, which we discuss in this episode alongside the potential EU-US trade deal. We also discuss the US implications of trade deals, prev...
Jul 25, 2025•28 min•Season 2Ep. 241
This week's key themes include US inflation and the Fed, the ECB decision and EU tariffs, and China's growth outlook. We discuss how tariffs are starting to impact US inflation data, preview the ECB decision and how the 30% tariff threats on the EU could affect that outcome, as well as share views on Japan's upper house election and whether a weak growth outlook China could prompt policy response. Chapters: (US: 01:50, Europe: 11:05, China: 15:40, Japan: 22:10)
Jul 18, 2025•28 min•Season 2Ep. 240
Key global market themes remain centred around US tariff announcements, possible trade deals, and the Fed. This week we saw President Trump announce higher tariff rates on a number of countries. We discuss these developments, what comes next, and key data and events to look out for over the coming week, as well as UK debt metrics and the outlook for China and Indonesia. Chapters: (US: 01:40, Europe: 07:40, Asia: 12:05).
Jul 11, 2025•24 min•Season 2Ep. 239
The UK saw another round of combined sterling and gilt weakness, a pattern which is becoming worryingly familiar. Politics elsewhere seemed to have run a bit more smoothly with the US budget bill passing through the Senate and House, teeing up some degree of fiscal expansion for the year ahead. Tariffs remain on the agenda for the week ahead, as we approach the 9 July deadline. In Asia, we focus on the Bank of Korea’s likely hawkishness relative to potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Aust...
Jul 04, 2025•24 min•Season 2Ep. 238
Tensions in the Middle East have eased but we enter the month of July with other flashpoints to watch. In the US, all eyes on labor market data, the Fed, and prospects of passing the One Big Beautiful bill. CPI data across Europe and the ECB forum in Sintra are on tap, while Germany approved a big budget. In Asia, we expect still-benign inflation and discuss trade deal prospects and our change in RBA forecast. Chapters: US (02:00), Europe (08:58), Asia (14:35).
Jun 27, 2025•27 min•Season 2Ep. 237
Market dynamics in the last week have been dominated by developments in the Middle East, where the ongoing military action between Israel and Iran continues to have a notable impact on investor risk sentiment and oil prices. In the US and Europe, we dissect a week of central bank decisions, including the Fed and the Bank of England. In Asia we look at how trade is evolving and discuss local political developments in Thailand. Chapters: US (01:42), Europe (10:59), Asia (16:01).
Jun 20, 2025•25 min•Season 2Ep. 236
Ongoing trade deal developments remain the largest driver of global markets right now. Our focus next week will be on the G7 Summit in Canada, to see if there are any further trade developments. We look ahead to central bank meetings in Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Japan, as well as fresh ECB communication and policy meetings across the UK, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway. Chapters: US (01:48), China (07:39), Europe (11:31), Japan (14:31), Rest of Asia (18:22), Australia & New Zeala...
Jun 13, 2025•24 min•Season 2Ep. 235
In this episode, we discuss our high conviction views and the second half outlook presented at our flagship Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) which recently took place in Singapore. Key themes at the conference were centered around US trade and fiscal policy, tensions with China, geopolitical risks, and de-dollarization. We also discuss how the rest of the world, as well as market participants, are navigating this highly uncertain global environment.
Jun 06, 2025•28 min•Season 2Ep. 234
There has been a few surprises this week highlighting the unpredictable and unconventional nature of US policy making. For the week ahead, our focus will be on the May Payrolls report in the US and the Bank of Canada policy decision. In Europe, we take a look at the impact of tariffs and geopolitics from a European perspective, and also discuss the policy meeting in India, earnings data in Japan and broad inflation trends across Asia. Chapters: Europe (01:55), US (06:05), Asia (11:05).
May 30, 2025•18 min•Season 2Ep. 233
It has been another big week in markets. We discuss US fiscal developments and how the Fed might respond as well as preview US inflation data. In focus for the week ahead is also central bank decisions in Australia, New Zealand and South Korea, alongside India’s growth outlook. In Europe, we discuss recent signs of softening of inflation and why the ECB still has room to cut rates. Chapters: US (01:50), Australia & New Zealand (07:31), India (10:33), Asia (17:19), Europe (18:03)....
May 23, 2025•24 min•Season 2Ep. 232
This week started with a bang after the sharp de-escalation of US and China tensions, with both sides agreeing to reduce tariffs in the next 90 days. We discuss the near-term economic implications, as well as the prospects of reaching a more lasting trade deal. We also preview upcoming UK CPI and European survey data and whether trade talks with Europe can also make progress. We end with a special segment on FX markets to discuss why sticking to a medium-term soft USD view makes sense and which ...
May 16, 2025•29 min•Season 2Ep. 231
In the week to date, the major themes remain around tariffs, policy and uncertainty, and what central banks will make of it all. Weaker growth but higher inflation could leave central banks in a tricky spot. In the week ahead, our focus in the US will be on April retail sales and CPI, and the latest tariff developments. In Europe, we recap the central bank meetings over the past week and look ahead to UK labour market and GDP data. Then we turn to Japan to consider Q1 growth, as well as tariff a...
May 09, 2025•19 min•Season 2Ep. 230
The focus this week turns to central banks. We discuss the Fed staying on-hold amid likely more pressures from Trump, and the uncertain outlook for US tax policy which is becoming a top legislative priority. We also discuss our expectations for the Bank of England, Norges Bank and Riksbank which could have diverging decisions but some risk of a dovish tone, as well as Beijing’s latest stance on de-escalation and stimulus prospects. All eyes will be on the data to gauge how much of the tariffs ar...
May 02, 2025•23 min•Season 2Ep. 229
As trade tensions show signs of softening and financial markets stabilise, we discuss the recent changes to our central bank views for both the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, and outline our thinking on recent US-Japan trade negotiations. In this episode, we also preview the upcoming US labour market data and discuss what the election in Canada may mean for the economy and markets. Chapters: Europe (02:19), Japan (05:53), Asia (11:02), US (12:23).
Apr 25, 2025•19 min•Season 2Ep. 228
We have seen some calm return this week, which has coincided with President Trump making some tariff concessions for tech companies and for auto parts, suggesting that a 'Trump put' is in play, and with the President also signalling “big progress” in talks with Japanese officials. However, we have to say this is an uneasy calm; new sectoral tariffs are still likely coming and tensions with China remain elevated. We discuss the latest tariff twists and turns, fresh communication from Fed Chair Po...
Apr 17, 2025•19 min•Season 2Ep. 227
Global financial markets remain on edge after a rebound from the 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs for most countries except China. In this episode, we discuss the path forward for negotiations with US trade partners. We also discuss Europe’s changing stance to negotiate rather than retaliate, and the ECB looking set to cut again next week. In Asia, we outline the posture from Beijing, with the Q1 GDP data also on tap. We end with a special segment with Rob Subbaraman, Head of Global Macro R...
Apr 11, 2025•29 min•Season 2Ep. 226
It’s been another tumultuous week in financial markets following President Trump’s tariff announcements on 2nd April. Tariffs were broad and generally larger than expected and financial markets did not digest them all that well, although some resilience in US labour market data appears to be curbing some of the downside for now. In this episode, we will go into the detail of what trade policy is being implemented and what it means for various economies. Chapters: US (01:27), Europe (09:00), Asia...
Apr 04, 2025•23 min•Season 2Ep. 225
In the week to date, US bond yields are a little higher across the curve, and the USD has been a little stronger too, while equities really have had a couple of up and down days. Another big theme for global markets has been around the idea of US exceptionalism, that took a dent as some US data printed weaker, Europe data looked better, and as China and Europe announced some stimulus plans over prior weeks. For the week ahead, it really is crunch time with April 2 tariff announcements just aroun...
Mar 28, 2025•27 min•Season 2Ep. 224
Financial markets have been difficult to navigate, with equity markets bouncing from their recent lows but still seeing sizable intraday swings. Interest rates seem to be similarly caught between potential upside inflation risks from some sources, and challenging growth dynamics on the other. And all of this comes ahead of the April 2nd tariff announcements from the US which also have the potential to jolt markets further. In Europe, we look for further signs that German’s fiscal reform is feedi...
Mar 21, 2025•23 min•Season 2Ep. 223
Market participants continue to grapple with a very high degree of uncertainty which is starting to have real economic consequences. The week ahead should be very interesting with key central bank decisions, and we could get some guidance on how policymakers think about and deal with the uncertainty, particularly from rising global trade tensions. We share our expectations for an on-hold decision at the upcoming FOMC meeting, and for the Fed’s tone to continue to emphasize patience. We also expe...
Mar 14, 2025•24 min•Season 2Ep. 222
Markets have seen sizable moves as the US administration ramped up tariffs and Germany announced a huge fiscal package. (02:30) With US tariffs hitting last week, we discuss what is actually in place, what is likely to come and the impact on the US, China and Europe. (15:15) Germany’s fiscal stimulus is having a major market impact and should meaningfully raise growth, inflation and ECB expectations. (20:15) We also preview next week’s inflation data out of the US and China.
Mar 07, 2025•25 min•Season 2Ep. 221
It’s a big week for China with all eyes on the National People’s Congress (NPC), where fiscal measures could be announced. We outline our expectations and whether the NPC could potentially provide a lift in market sentiment. In the US, we preview the February employment report and its impact on Fed policy, and digest the latest announcements on tariffs. In Europe, we discuss our expectations of the ECB, where we go from here after the German elections and what is Europe’s next move around the pe...
Feb 28, 2025•24 min•Season 2Ep. 220
Market sentiment seems to be holding in pretty well as this week comes to a close. Equity markets are generally holding up at healthy levels, credit spreads remain pretty tight, and commodity currencies, which are often seen as global growth sensitive and risk barometers, are holding up at higher levels. This week in the US, our focus will be on core PCE inflation and any new Trump or tariff developments. In Europe, we’ll be watching the German election fallout, along with the latest inflation r...
Feb 21, 2025•17 min•Season 2Ep. 219
Early signs of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal are boosting market optimism, with EUR/USD trading up towards its highest level since late-January and European equities continuing to surge. We discuss what this might mean for the euro area outlook. This positivity is, however, still being partially offset by the ongoing threat of US tariffs and by sticky inflation data in the US. We also preview next week’s central bank decisions in Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia. Chapters: Europe (02...
Feb 14, 2025•19 min•Season 2Ep. 218
This past week began with the news that Mexico and Canada had secured a temporary reprieve from US tariffs. However, we see higher tariffs as highly likely. This week also brought us stronger-than-expected earnings data in Japan. Looking ahead, in the US our focus will be on any further tariff news, the January CPI and Fed-speak. In Europe, we’ll be watching out for the latest activity readings, and ECB and BOE speakers, as well as a central bank meeting in the Philippines. Chapters: US (01:49),...
Feb 07, 2025•18 min•Season 2Ep. 217
It’s been another big week, with the news on DeepSeek rattling global equity markets, led by the tech sector. The Fed’s on-hold decision came and went as expected, however we have made an important change to our Fed forecasts. Coming up, the US employment report will be key to watch, alongside hints on whether tariffs will soon be implemented. Elsewhere, we have the BOE decision where a cut is widely expected, while activity data in Europe could again remain weak. In Asia, the spotlight is on In...
Jan 31, 2025•20 min•Season 2Ep. 216
We are only a few days into President Trump’s new term, but already there has been a lot of action. Over 25 executive orders have been signed, and we discuss what these might mean for the macro economic outlook. In Europe, we look at the likely 25bp cut by the ECB, signs of short-term positivity in the region and the possible response to Trump’s policies. Finally, we focus on how the latest developments impact China and what policy response, if any, is on its way. Chapters: US (01:53), Europe (0...
Jan 24, 2025•17 min•Season 2Ep. 215
