We’ve had a very busy start to the year and the excitement is likely to continue with the focus on Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday 20th January. In this episode, we outline what policy announcements to expect in the early part of Trump’s second term, and how Asian economies may respond. In Europe we will be digging into recent UK market volatility and prospects for the labour market. And last but certainly not least, we preview the Bank of Japan decision, where we expect a 25bp hike. Chapt...
Jan 17, 2025•23 min•Season 2Ep. 214
The week ahead promises to be another eventful one, with key CPI data in the US and the UK. We also have tier-1 data in China and a couple of central bank decisions in Asia. Recent comments from President-elect Trump particularly on tariffs, could provide some hints of what’s to come as we approach his inauguration. We will close with a special segment focusing on the outlook for Asian currencies, which have been facing significant pressures recently and are therefore in the spotlight. Chapters:...
Jan 10, 2025•29 min•Season 2Ep. 213
This year could be all about Trump, tariffs, and potentially turbulence. In this episode, we discuss our recently published annual outlooks and shine a spotlight on the key data and events over the coming week. In the US, our focus will be on the services ISM and payrolls reports. In Europe, CPI and final December PMI data will be released. Then it's the latest from Asia, with Japan earnings, China loan data, and CPI reports from across the region. Chapters: US (03:46), Europe (09:10), Asia (14:...
Jan 03, 2025•19 min•Season 2Ep. 212
Year end is approaching fast, but we still have key central bank meetings and data to look out for next week. In the US, our focus will be on the Fed policy decision, and the latest core inflation and activity readings. In Europe, the Bank of England meets, and key labour market and inflation data will be released. Then it’s the latest from Asia, with the Bank of Japan and four other central banks across the region set to make policy announcements. Chapters: US (02:00), Europe (06:20), China (10...
Dec 13, 2024•23 min•Season 2Ep. 211
Starting next week we have monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia. These along with a few key data releases set the tone for the week after which is promising to be a blockbuster week, when we have the Fed, Bank of Japan and Bank of England, plus a few central banks in Asia all on deck. We also have a special segment in this episode where we focus on the 2025 outlook for Asia. Chapters: US (01:56), Europe (08:04), Asia (13:...
Dec 06, 2024•24 min•Season 2Ep. 210
Trump’s tariff announcements have started to move markets. We discuss how to interpret the latest US political developments and provide a preview of this week’s all important labour market data. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of India is set to meet and may offer some dovish guidance. While in Europe, we preview the PMIs and Swiss inflation data. Chapters: US (02:18), Asia (10:08), Europe (16:14).
Nov 29, 2024•24 min•Season 2Ep. 209
Inflation and policy rates are returning towards normal in many countries. This week our focus turns back towards normal market drivers. We discuss core inflation in the US and the latest set of Fed meeting minutes. Across Europe, we have a number of central bank speakers, key inflation and growth readings to watch out for, as well as Tokyo inflation, China PMIs and central bank meetings in Korea and New Zealand. Chapters: US (02:17), Europe (05:22), Korea (08:22), Rest of Asia (10:37).
Nov 22, 2024•14 min•Season 2Ep. 208
In last week’s podcast we focused on the US and China following Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential elections. This week we continue to discuss the implications of Trump 2.0 on other parts of the globe. Also on deck next week are US housing starts data, CPI prints in the UK and Japan, as well as Bank Indonesia likely again pausing amid external aftershocks from the US election. Chapters: US (02:03), Europe (07:54), Japan (12:31), Asia (17:53)
Nov 15, 2024•22 min•Season 2Ep. 207
Following Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential elections, we outline the new policy outlook and what we think it means for the global economy and markets. We also discuss the National People’s Congress in China, with the policy decisions there likely to shape investors’ perceptions of both the outlook in China but also the broader impact on risk sentiment and global growth dynamics. Chapters: US (02:30), Asia (11:04), Europe (14:36)
Nov 08, 2024•19 min•Season 2Ep. 206
It’s been a busy past week with European Q3 GDP data and an expansionary UK budget, which led to a rise in European and UK bond yields. We also saw China PMI data print a tiny bit better and a pretty solid Q3 GDP growth report in the US. Over the coming week, it’s crunch time in the US with the election finally upon us. We discuss how markets may react as the results start to roll in next week. We also have at least five central bank meetings to look out for, and with an expected 25bp rate cut i...
Nov 01, 2024•19 min•Season 2Ep. 205
This week we witnessed some pretty material moves in markets. There was a rate cut announcement from the Bank of Canada and the theme of growth exceptionalism in the US, combined with communication from various Fed officials, has led the market to continue to unwind some of its prior aggressive Fed rate cut expectations. As we look ahead to the coming week, things are going to really heat up with US Payrolls and inflation data, European GDP, the UK budget, China PMI, and inflation reports in Ind...
Oct 25, 2024•19 min•Season 2Ep. 204
In this episode, we discuss the upcoming US elections, and how US economic sentiment has been holding up in the second half of the year. In Europe, the focus next week will be on flash PMIs, especially after the ECB noted that they have seen downside surprises in indicators of economic activity. Could UK public sector borrowing numbers change the game for the UK budget? In Asia, the focus is on Japan where we have crucial inflation data for October. Chapters: US (01:16), Europe (08:11), Asia (10...
Oct 18, 2024•14 min•Season 2Ep. 203
Central banks remain very much in focus over the coming week, with policy meetings in Europe and across Asia. We’re expecting rate cuts from two of those and the theme of divergence, based on local dynamics, seems very much in play. Some central banks look set to deliver more easing than perhaps would have been expected only a month ago, but some a little less. Aside from the central banks, we’ll need to watch out for fiscal policy news from China, as well as ongoing developments in the Middle E...
Oct 11, 2024•16 min•Season 2Ep. 202
What we have seen so far this week is markets buoyed by recent announcements regarding China policy stimulus but then troubled by developments in the middle east. Coming up, we expect rate cuts in India, Korea and New Zealand next week, and from the ECB soon after. We are recording this podcast ahead of US Payrolls data which has become an increasingly critical release for markets. Chapters: US (02:17), Europe (07:54), Asia (10:54)
Oct 04, 2024•15 min•Season 2Ep. 201
As we celebrate our 200th episode, we have a big week coming up in the US with the labour market report. In Europe, the most important data next week is euro area flash inflation, and we discuss whether inflation data may edge the ECB closer to an October rate cut. In Asia, the focus is on China's PMIs and Japanese industrial production. Chapters: US (01:20), Europe (05:55), Asia (10:27)
Sep 27, 2024•14 min•Season 2Ep. 200
It’s been a busy week in the US, the Fed surprised many Economists by kicking off its cutting cycle with a 50bp cut. Is it a speedy descent for US rates from here? Also coming up this week, Europe is at the center of the action with several important data releases - we have flash PMIs, Spanish and French inflation and central bank meetings in Sweden and Switzerland. Then, it’s the latest from Asia with Australia’s RBA decision, Tokyo CPI and BOJ minutes. Chapters: US (01:16), Europe (04:30), Asi...
Sep 20, 2024•13 min•Season 2Ep. 199
Coming up this week, in the US we expect the Fed to commence its easing campaign, with a 25bp move. Across Europe, the focus will be on the Bank of England policy meeting. Then it’s the latest from Asia, with central bank meetings in Japan, Indonesia and Taiwan. Chapters: US (01:15), Europe (05:18), Asia (07:54)
Sep 13, 2024•11 min•Season 2Ep. 198
It’s been another interesting week in global markets with equities and commodity prices having another serious wobble, and bond yields declining, surprising many. This week we consider the latest US election polling numbers and what a Trump presidency might mean for economies and markets. We also look towards the coming ECB meeting, which should be a key highlight of the week ahead, along with China data. We are recording this ahead of critical US Payrolls data, which could well determine whethe...
Sep 06, 2024•15 min•Season 2Ep. 197
Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist and Ruchir Sharma, US Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. Euro area and US inflation data should tee up central banks for more cutting in September. Chapters: US (02:40), Europe (06:36), Asia (11:29)
Aug 23, 2024•14 min•Season 2Ep. 196
Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host & Australia Economist, George Buckley, Chief UK & Euro Area Economist, David Seif, Chief Economist for Developed Markets, and Charnon Boonnuch, Asia Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. New Zealand and the Philippines join the rate cut pack, while the Fed remains on track to deliver a first 25bp rate cut in September. Chapters: US (02:22), Europe (08:45), Asia (11:49)
Aug 16, 2024•19 min•Season 2Ep. 195
Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, Jeremy Schwartz, Senior US Economist, and Dominic Bunning, Head of G10 FX Strategy, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. Market uncertainty is rife. Key data from the US and UK may set the record straight. Chapters: Week Ahead Key Themes with Dominic Bunning (01:12), US (05:11), Europe (09:38), Asia (13:41)
Aug 09, 2024•18 min•Season 2Ep. 194
Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host and Australia Economist, David Seif, Chief Economist for Developed Markets, and George Buckley, Chief UK & Euro Area Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. The central bank divide widens, with a second rate hike in Japan, and a first cut in the UK. Chapters: US (02:29), Europe (11:12), Asia (14:57)
Aug 02, 2024•18 min•Season 2Ep. 193
Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, David Seif, Chief Economist for Developed Markets, Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist, and Yusuke Miyairi, FX Strategist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. It's one of the busiest weeks on the podcast with the FOMC, BoE, BOJ, nonfarm payroll and top-tier data out of the Euro area. Chapters: US (02:20), Europe (07:53), Asia (12:00)
Jul 26, 2024•19 min•Season 2Ep. 192
Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host and Australia Economist, Jeremy Schwartz, Senior US Economist, Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist, and Jeong Woo Park, Asia Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. The easing cycle has commenced, but central banks are running their own race. Chapters: US (01:13), Europe (06:14), Asia (09:08)
Jul 19, 2024•16 min•Season 2Ep. 191
Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, George Buckley, Chief UK & Euro Area Economist, and Hannah Liu, China Economist, as they discuss the key drivers for global markets next week. Europe will be in focus this week with crucial UK data and ECB rate decision due. China is also likely to face continued economic pressure. Chapters: US (01:30), Europe (04:14), Asia (9:10)
Jul 12, 2024•14 min•Season 2Ep. 190
Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, David Seif, Chief Economist for Developed Markets, and George Buckley, Chief UK & Euro Area Economist, as they discuss the key drivers for global markets next week. Political events are moving fast in the UK, France and the US, but markets will probably move the most, as they typically do, on US CPI. Chapters: US (01:12), Europe (06:54), Asia (13:12)
Jul 05, 2024•17 min•Season 2Ep. 189
Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host and Australia Economist, Ruchir Sharma, US Economist, and Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist as they discuss the key drivers for global markets next week. The focus turns to elections over the coming week, but inflation still matters. Chapters: U.S. (01:15), Europe (05:34), Asia (10:41)
Jun 28, 2024•15 min•Season 2Ep. 188
Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host and Australia Economist, Kohei Okazaki, Senior Japan Economist, Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist and Hannah Liu, China Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. Markets to seek confirmation that US inflation is moderating, with multiple Fed rate cuts now priced.
Jun 21, 2024•21 min•Season 2Ep. 187
Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist and George Buckley, Chief UK and Euro Area Economist, as they discuss the key drivers for global markets over the coming week. It’s decision time for central banks with three meetings in Europe and three in Asia, although ultimately most central banks are likely to remain on hold. Chapters: U.S. (01:14), Europe (07:06), Asia (14:09)
Jun 14, 2024•19 min•Season 2Ep. 186
Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host and Australia Economist, Jeremy Schwartz, Senior U.S. Economist, Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist and Kohei Okazaki, Senior Japan Economist as they discuss the key themes driving global markets over the coming week. After rate cuts in Canada and Europe, focus turns to the Fed and the Bank of Japan. Chapters: U.S. (01:28), Europe (05:29), Asia (10:29)
Jun 07, 2024•20 min•Season 2Ep. 185
