Welcome to NFL Daily, where we could use a little distraction on this wild card weekend. I'm Greg Rosenthal in the garage talking to Patrick Claibon, my friend in his backyard with a great little view there of his kid's house. And yes, you might have noticed we did not have our previous show at the regularly scheduled time. We ended up not going in on Wednesday to the studios because
of the wildfires going on here in southern California. And yeah, as I was getting ready for this show late last night, Patrick, I thought about the word distraction. It's always a negative thing when you're talking about football teams and players and coaches. Are they distracted? And I was thinking, as I was writing these notes on like Cooper Degene versus jayden Ried, this is a good distraction because, like a lot of people here, we've just been focused on everything going on.
And yeah, it's been a difficult week here in southern California.
Yeah, just because the word makes you think of, you know, outside things that are taking you away from what you should be focused on. But in this instance, right with the with the literal danger, especially with you guys in your proximity to the Palisades fire. It's like everything else felt like a distraction from it, right, it was impossible to look away from and get away from. You know, we're fortunate to be down here now now miles away
on the other side of town. And the most we got with some ash falling on our cars, and you know, just the continued constant rage that's always boiling in my head about how we distribute resources on our planet and seeing what everybody's dealing with. It's it's been a lot, and it's been it's been a you know, the focus and everything else has been the distraction.
Yeah, I appreciate everyone who has reached out and some listeners is what we're asking about it too. You know, we evacuated on Tuesday night, late night, made the call. We are back in the house. Now, we're in what's called the evacuation warning zone. Now it's I wouldn't say it's funny, but when they announced an expanded one. We are a couple of blocks north of the zone that we would have to be out of here and a couple blocks east of the zone that we would have
to be out of here. So we're ready to go again if we need to. But it was good to just get back home and it's all small whatever we're going through what so many people including you know, really a close friend of mine who who lost his home, and just so many people who are going through things, and obviously the schools are closed, and our hearts just go out to everyone and hopefully we'll all get through this together. I don't want this to be like an
overly heavy show because this is a distract. I do want to talk about football, but I did want to say before we do get going with the show. Yeah, we are heartbroken by the devastation and destruction from the wildfires, and families affected by these fires do need support. You can help the American Red Cross respond to and help people recover from the disasters. You can donate today to support to relief efforts by going to Redcross dot org
slash NFL. And Yeah, I think there's a lot of worthwhile places that you could be looking at to like World Central Kitschien does amazing work. I've done work with Meals on Wheels West and Meals on Wheels in general is a great organization, but Meals on Wheels West, which
is in Santa Monica, I work with. I worked with them back in the day, and it really made me feel more of a connection to this even than I would have anyways, because people think of the Palisades and they think, well, that's just all rich people, not that that should change your empathy for them at all. And I don't think people are aware of how many people are living around the poverty line in Santa Monica and
even Palisades, and a lot of those are elderly. And one of the neighborhoods that I know is basically gone is one that I had what we call the client that I would go to every week, and those are mostly elderly or people living around the poverty line that had property, that have rent control and that have been there for a long time or for however reason they're there, and so your hearts go out. And that's a great organization as well.
Yeah, there's a because so many people are thinking about like home prices and stuff. But you have to realize, you know, you go back to nineteen seventy four or nineteen seventy five, like you could conceivably buy these houses working at minimum wage, and so the way the value goes up and people with money come in, people can't afford to sell their houses, right, tell it, you have to go somewhere. And so people had literally lost everything
throughout this process. And regardless of because you know the there's there's any number of ways that people politicize things, right, but there's a it's it's impossible to look away from. Yeah, we we could collectively invest to help people, and a lot of people don't want to do that. So here we are.
Yeah, and uh, And it's just it's just memories and stuff. You have certain memories at different plate places. We spend a lot of time at will Will Rogers Park and some of these places. Our great friend Lakeisha Westling, I thought about that with Rosenthal. Winds was a place that her, her and Chris spent so much time. If you if you live in this area and you drive on pH you know exactly where I'm talking about, and so many
of those places and the business has gone. So we are hoping for the best as we're taping this, we are hoping that we're seeing some improvement with the Winds dying down and they might be coming back. So I don't I don't want to spike the football early. But we're in a good place other than Yeah, this garage and even the inside of my house is smokey as hell right now, but it is better than the hotel night that we spended driving away. So we're going to get into these games. We are going to do it.
I am excited again for distraction. We've got the college football playoffs. We've been building up all season to these games, and today, structure wise, we got six games to talk about. I actually taped an interview earlier in the week as this was all just picking up with Seth Paine, one of my favorite guests that we have had, who is a Houston Texans expert who does radio there, and so we're going to end the show with my conversation with
him talking about Texans Chargers. So we're going to start with the NFC, and let's get going with the Sunday night game or the Sunday afternoon game, Patrick, which is the game the NFL decides, essentially is the number one game of the weekend. And I'm not surprised that they chose Packers Eagles. Eagles are favored by four and a half.
It is the Tom Brady Kevin Burkhart crew, and I'm not surprised because I do think this is the one game of the entire weekend where it includes two teams that could make the super Bowl, and Rams fans might listen to this and say, what about our game? But I'm I said what I said, This is the one game where I think I could realistically see either of
these teams making the super Bowl. Even though your Packers, and I say your Packers because you had them there at the start of the season, haven't been playing their best. I do think, Patrick, that they still have the ingredients to surprise us and go on a run and play better than they have in recent weeks.
Yeah.
Well, what they have is a solid right, not great, not like it's not going to shock you with their defensive ability to stop somebody, but a solid defense, the plays consistent, that knows what they're doing. Then has a good veteran leader in Xavier mcinn and an offense that we've seen that can be streaky, can score points, especially in the postseason, as as Jordan Love and this crew
did last season. Now Christian Watson's injury, I think because a lot of people view this, this unit, right, this Packers unit, especially those who play fantasy football, as oh, well, you know they're there, they're the some of their parts and and losing one person doesn't necessarily well when when the sum is what gets you to to what they
can do. When you when you're able to have Christian Watson, Romeo Dobbs, who will be back for this game against the Eagles, Jaden Reid, then you can mix in Dontavian Wicks as well as Malie Keith like in these in these reserved spot roles. Yeah, the whole thing gets better. The whole thing gets worse when you lose one part of that, and I think you need that part. And so, yeah, they're banged up, but it's it's still it's still a good team that can provide a threat. Are they Are
they Eagles? I don't. I don't feel like they're a significant challenger for the Eagles at this point, But you go back two Week one, they're right there, and these are two teams that the Eagles have been significantly better since then.
Corect Yeah, that Week one game, since you bring it up, let's talk about it a little bit, because I think it was an interesting one to think about. Jaden Reid dominated that game in part because he was covered by Avante maddox I went back and checked. Now that's Cooper Dejen probably out there. You think about how the Packers have won offensively, Jordan Reed has some of the most
dramatic splits between facing man coverage facing zone coverage. And you mentioned Christian Watson and some Packers people I really trust and listen to sometimes they really think Watson's such a big loss because no one else can do what he does and he is the man coverage beater. His
speed does scare you. And yes, they are three guys in terms of their wideouts and their tight ends are great too, that have different skill sets, but he's that hard one to find, and he has a big reason why they've been why Jordan Love has been so much better against man coverage, and so I do think that's a big loss. And you think about how these teams changed since then. Another way that they've changed is I think they've taken some stuff off Jalen Hurts his plate
since then. That was one of those That was one of the reasons why I think they went so run heavy after the bye was This game was a typical Jalen Hurts game in September. It had a lot of amazing plays. He handled the blitzwell, he had like big time throws and he had some terrible throws. He had three or four turnover where he plays, a couple bad interceptions, and a lot of those mistakes he made were all before the bye. And then they came back and they
were the most run heavy team in the league. And he's barely thrown an interceptible ball since then, and they are just a little different. So I do think the way the Eagles have changed on both sides certainly favors them since this game.
They have the run game, right there's I feel like it's it's hard to because I know you're not saying that that, Sirianni as well as you know their their office coordinator who's getting some Kellen Morris back in the head coach interview game by the way, as you know, the name is starting to pop up more. But it's not like they're trying to hide Jalen Hurts. You have a guy that they could have broken the rushing record uh this season. You have the offensive line clearly that's
that's capable of doing it. And so it's just they they they pulled back on the passing game. But then when you know, what do you need to improve on the past game. Like all the controversy comes out, Jalen comes out, has a great game through the air that him and and aj are, you know, dancing and celebrating touchdowns and all things are well. It's it's not like
that they don't have it in the bag. They just they just pulled back a little bit and I think if need be, they can they can turn it on again.
Yeah, and probably the most significant thing that happened in the Week eighteen game that no one watched, including me. I will admit it. This week has been a lot seeing some crazy stuff and one of them is not that Drew Lock game. But I did listen to some coverage about it and Dallas Goddter and you could see this in the box score. He played the whole game and they made sure to get him really involved early.
And that is one of the things you can do in a Week eighteen game where you're not playing most of your starters and they're totally different offense when he is on the field and they have those three weapons. And he played well in that game, caught a bunch of passes from Tanner McKee. Curious who's going to be the backup quarterback in this game. I would suggest it's probably Tanner McKee because of how well he played, and they can kind of hide behind Kenny Pickett. Jalen Hurts,
we should mention is practicing. He as we're taping, is still in the concussion protocol, but he is practicing, which is normally the process that gets you cleared by the end of the week. But we can't totally eliminate the fact that he would be even out for this game. It's possible, and in that case, it would be interesting to watch who they would start, because I would give I would give them ants. I would certainly change that line from four and a half to the Eagles to
maybe one for the Packers. I think Jalen Hurts is worth that much, but I would give them a chance to win because of that running game. And yeah, when I looked at the numbers, and I was really surprised how well the Packers grade out statistically, not just DVOA and everything because that includes all the turnos, but they're hitting guys in the backfield. They're a really good run defense. They've been really sound. So it's a great running game. You would think it favors the Eagles. But it's not
some crazy mismatch. If the Packers are going to win this game, maybe it's there somewhat disappointing pass rush showing up just a little. I don't have much faith in that. But more importantly, I think it would be a run defense who's gotten in the backfield and mostly prevented big plays and actually has been really strong upfront all year, holding their own and at least making hurts in that
passing game be the engine that drives this offense. There's a chance, like there's a chance of that based on how they've played this season.
Yeah, when you go into the NFL Pro numbers, Greg, it's it's not in terms of the matchups, in the individual statistical categories that the Packers aren't there. It's pretty much a wash Eagles advantage. But this again is a balanced team that doesn't have like that huge glaring weakness that can make plays. And we've seen Jordan Love take some risky throws, he hits those. I guess a very good secondary. They could be right there in this game. And we've seen Eagles make the mistakes, you turn them
all over a couple times. Packers right right there in this game.
Yeah, and then you have Love and Matt Lafleur, who kind of like Jalen Hurt's coming into this season. Suddenly people were wondering, how come this team has no answers against the Blitz. They really struggled the first half of the season, and they button that up completely and the numbers are now great against the Blitz in the second half. The Eagles aren't much of a big bl team. Their defense is really why I favor them in this game.
But I will know Evan Williams, the really good rookie safety, and Kuay Walker, who's an important player for the Packers defense, will be back for this game. So it's really two pretty heavy, I mean healthy teams, I should say for the most part, and that Packers rushing attack has been awesome. They love to have two running backs in the backfield. Again, their their route, I think is they're staying run heavy too. These are two kind of similar teams have some effectiveness
with the run. The Eagles defense is great across the board, but I think if you're gonna beat them, that's probably the way to do it. And nothing would surprise me. And yet I'll hold my like you know, spread pick for our Cynthia show. We are going to tape that. But I do like the get the Eagles in this game.
A hypothetical spread on with Kenny Pickett or with Tarner McKee starting.
That's what I was saying before. I would go Packers minus two with Tanner McKee, OK, and my personal line would be Packers minus like five. I think I think Tanner McKee's worth three points over Kidney Thicket.
I believe Kidney Picket it's over.
Although to be fair, I think he I am talking out of both sides of my mouth because I thought and it shows how good this Eagles offense is and well set up there. I thought he played pretty well when when he played in there. So maybe it's minus two for McKey minus three for Picket for the Packers. I would favor the Packers if it was a backup, wouldn't you?
Or Yeah, no, the same difference. I'm just wondering the the Tanner McKee experience coming out there and beating that Wolfle Giants team is show you.
Uh, it's the eyes, it's the people I trust, like bo wolf over at over at pH i Y who really loves what he saw to m Key every time I see him play in the preseason, I think he's going to have a career. I think he's He's exactly what you want out of a guy like him, which is I think next year, for instance, they can have a very you know, you just have the backup position, lockdown for cheap and it'll be totally competent. All right, let's move on. Let's go to the Vikings and the Rams.
That's the Monday night game. The Vikings are favored by one and a half, and so that is Joe Buck and Troy Aikman, Lisa Saulters. They announced the NFL that is that if they had to move the game, they would play it in Glendale. There's no point speculating. Inglewood, you know, is pretty far from where the fires are. The air quality right now as we tape this is terrible. It's it's we don't know enough to even talk about that. But that's that's just where that is at as we
tape on Thursday morning. So, yeah, this is the game, Patrick, I I don't know who I'm gonna pick. I'm struggling with the most. I'm going back and forth. I could I could see it both ways. I could see like either of these teams actually almost blowing the other out too. Like, I actually think anything is on the table for this game, and I'm fascinated by it.
Well, I think the difficulty comes right after Week eighteen, where we saw Sam Donald play categorically his worst game. Maybe not just in twenty twenty four. Maybe we got to go back to some starts here in the past few years where I think a better version, previous versions of what we expected how Sam Donald might have, might have made that a closer.
It's my Week eighteen Panthers Saints start that. Actually, it's so similar and brought I've brought this up. If people remember, they probably don't so many times. It's so similar Patrick actually because he played really well for the Panthers for like six weeks. It was the best stretch of his career, and then in Week eighteen he had one of the worst games any quarterback had all season, and it just
ruined the whole thing for me. The good thing is that this time he gets another game to make up for it against a much more well I wouldn't say much more favorable opponent, but stylistically, I think the Rams present maybe fewer problems than the Lions Kamakazi approach did last week.
Well, a secondary that's not going to turn you over the way that the Lions will. And perhaps you know Kirby and Brian branch or where you know, I don't. I don't want to bring up the G word with Sam Donald because I don't think that's what happened. I think the Lions just had a great defensive game plan in a huge game, the biggest Week eighteen game in NFL history, if you want to quantify it by wins and losses, and they just had a great plan and it mess things up for the Vikings, who had great
opportunities on all those four downs. I feel like they're still the team that got those opportunities, and they're still the team that won those fourteen games. And whereas I love for the Rams that they're able to get the rest for those Vets who needed the rest, I agree with Sean McVay being able to have that week of rest kind of superseded whoever you're going to play here
in this game. Yeah, you could try to pick and choose matchups, but ultimately you're gonna have to beat somebody if you want to try to that Lombardi Trophy again, and so the Rams are going to get you know, they had this game at home and they give Stafford the time off against the team that they had already beat.
Josh Cardy is really hot right now, Greg, So I understand after watching him hit back to back fifty eight and fifty seven yard field goals where you feel like, hey, the Rams get around midfield and it's going to be three points. But it's this This Vikings unit has been has been so good for so long in the season. I remember back where this was one of those Brian Flores matchups where they didn't really come after Stafford a lot, yeah in that first game and perhaps kind of paid
for it. The chess match is going to be great between Flores and Sean McVay, But it's the Vikings had just been been very, very good and they were very very close to winning that game. That was one of the best of the Rams.
You're talking about. It represents my struggles, Like, as you're talking about all the Rams, I'm like, oh, yeah, I am going to pick the Rams, and then you get back to the Vikings. Yeah, because it's really hard. They had one of the worst pass rushes of the season. According to next Gen stats, in that game the Vikings
of any team all season long. Like in that game, it was actually the game that the Rams got almost I think they got everyone back and they were so good protecting the pass from people that, oh, I the Rams are gonna fly. Their offensive line hasn't been that consistent since necessarily they've been good, good enough, but they haven't been dominant like that. But you're right. They didn't blitz a ton and when they did it didn't get home.
And when they rushed for it didn't get home. And you say the G word for Donald, how about the G words on the Vikings defense, Grenard and Ginkle Van Ginkle Because they're playing so well, especially Van Ginkle, that I do think they're playing it even at a higher level. I do have a theory though on the whole, like they could play anyone. There is a part of me that thought this was the game the Rams thought they were going to get and that they were okay with it.
Just there's no way for them to use that as locker room chatter. This is just my theory. They beat them already, they're familiar. Maybe they wouldn't be that interested in Sam Darnold does their future starting Cordwick I now that I don't know about, but like I have this like just little hunch that who knows, maybe they did want this game because it was the most likely possible matchup and I was there for that game and they
played their best. And that's the X factor that I can't quantify is that this is a championship group and the Vikings are coming off of a bad game, and they won a lot of tough games this year, but there is a championship core here that remains that you can't look past that. You can imagine them playing their best in this game, and if they play their best in this game, the Vikings will have to as well. Like the Vikings best I think is a little better
than the Rams best. And these two teams have been pretty steady actually over the course of the season. But you know, does ultimately in a big game do I do I trust Stafford or Darnold Moore? Of course I trust Stafford a little more. It's it's an unfair comparison.
Yeah, It's it's exceedingly unfair that the right, the age quotient, and the injury quotent a Stafford kind of up and down during some spots. But I remember before it was right there because we did the the game Center kickoff for that Rams Vikings game, and it was a simple conversation because the Rams were not at this point in their season and how we viewed them, it was kind of feeling like it was going to be a lost
cause for the for the remainder of the season. But the question was like, if they can protect Matthew Stafford, And the immediate thing out of Cynthia's mouth was, Oh, they will just play well, They'll win the game if they can protect Matthew Stafford and he was only pressured on less than twelve percent of his dropbacks in that game. If they can have that duplicate performance and this great defensive line can get after cent Now, I know in the secondary, they're not going to be able to do
what the Lions did. It'll be tough to for the Lions to duplicate what they did in Week eighteen, but they have that Rams puncher's chance that I like to talk about so much with with Stafford and Puka and Cooper Coup back there.
Yeah, and the four man rush matchup is the first thing I always look at, and they were one of the teams, the team in the league that had the most pass rushers with you know, a lot of pressures because Byron Young had a really nice season. Verse ended up with the second mouse amount of rookie pressures in a long long time. And then you obviously have Fisk
there as well. Like it's a good group. Kobe Turner has been playing better and can they get some pressure for me rush and then we just see excellence in terms of wide receiver play. Two of the very best, Puka coming off a season that's been a little slept on because he missed so many games. Yeah, in terms of yards per route run Patrick this season by Puka,
Nakua Trail's only Steve Smith. Shout out to Steve Smith winning the Triple Crown year on a team it was crown here that that they didn't throw the ball that much relatively, you know, for a guy that just won the Triple Crown and behind Tyreek Hill's biggest season with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, and that's it. That's all Puka's behind and all time in terms of yards per route run. Like these two guys, Puka and Justin Jefferson, I believe are the top of the all time lister.
Maybe Jefferson's like a like one slot lower, but whatever it is, like, they're there, they're they're they are as good as it as it gets, so that'll be a lot of fun.
I don't know what it is now, but I remember a few weeks ago the Puka on all stats were like three points better in yards per carry for the team when Cool was on and off the field. And again, I don't know what it is at the end of the regular season, but it's they're just a better team with seventeen.
Like part of it is because he's a good he's a good blocker, but it's it's more about the attention. And yes, this Rams team is built to run. I think that's a big thing to watch in this game. Both teams do want to run the ball. The Rams stick with it more, they're a little more consistent with it, very efficient. A lot of four and five yard gains from Kyron Williams over the course of the season. And two teams that are pretty bad and special teams. So
that's just something old watch. Not so much the kickers right right now. The good call because Riiker early in the season was on fire. Now he's slumping and flipped it. But if you look at the special team in terms of the coverage units, both teams are bad.
And also important to remember the cam Akers revenge game.
Great, Oh, that is a good one.
This is the cam Akers revenge.
He legitimately wasn't thrilled with how Sean McVay treated him. Let's wrap up our NFC talk with Bucks commanders and the Bucks are favored by three in this game. This is the Sunday night game. Nice spot for Jayden Daniels, and I think it makes sense. The Washington is a sneaky national team. Now, I just I just based on how electric he has been this season, based on a dormant fan base that is large. People want to watch Jayden.
And I'm glad the Bucks get the shine too, because they're one of the most fun offenses in the league. A very even matchup if you look at any number like these are similarly really good offenses. Similarly not as good defenses overall DVOA. They're tenth and eleventh on the season.
They have some vulnerabilities which you would think it's gonna be a bit of an offensive game, and ultimately I think it's a game where there might not be a ton of like pass rush pressure, and that usually leads to a lot of Chris Collinsworth really enjoying the quarterback play. So I'm with it. I'm looking forward to this one.
Yeah, to top five offenses piloted by you know, guys that went high in the draft, guys that you know had a lot of postseason awards in college football. And Baker Mayfield actually and the Bucks have the number four offens it's Jane Daniels with a number five offense. Now, if you change some things about that. It was Jayan Daniels's very first career NFL game that actually came against the Buccaneers. Jamel Dean was matched up against Terry McLaren
and he had two receptions for seventeen yards. So like, if we're thinking about the evolution of the Commander's offense, I don't think Jamel Dean's going to run off a whole lot of attempts for Terry McLaren in this stage of jayde Daniels' rookie season. So yeah, it's tough to forecast anything other than a shootout between two teams that average north to twenty eight points per game.
Yeah, that was Daniel's worst game. The only other contender would be his last game, which was against the Cowboys that I tend to not put too much stock into. But they also had seventeen dropbacks that gained twenty yards in that game, so it's not nothing. And it was typical of the only thing Daniels didn't do well this year, which was take a ton of sacks. He was fourth
worst in the NFL in pressure to sack ratio. Baker actually is one of the three people ahead of him, So these are two guys that were protected well, Baker much better even, but when they were pressured, they took a lot of sacks. Now, Jayden Daniels's numbers though against pressure, ultimately we're still really good because he's so good scrambling and a lot of the times he doesn't take those sacks. He has such a unique profile because he takes those
sacks and you think negative plays. But he was second in the entire NFL in the fewest turnover worthy play percentage in terms of PFF. So I know it's like an easy comparison to make, but there really are a lot of similarities to Robert Griffin's rookie year, which gets slept on as such an incredible rookie year, was my choice for Rookie of the Year over Andrew Lucky did win the award, and they're similar in that Griffin wasn't
making any mistakes. Griffin was an extremely efficient scrambler. There was way there was more design runs for Griffin, But more than anything, the accuracy is what really reminds me of each other. They're just so pinpoint accurate. The difference, I would say is Jane Daniels does, I think show already more of the traits of getting to the opposite side of the field and his reads and just being totally composed in difficult situations that maybe Griffin never was
even was even in those positions as a rookie. But that's neither here nor there. He's just a very uniquely excellent player. And that's true of Baker too, who takes some negative plays, but he's coming off Unlike Daniels, I think Baker might be coming off his best game of the season, so a little different in terms of vibes coming in if we put anything into Week.
Eighteen, Yeah it was Baker again. Todd Bowles had a great laugh for earlier the season when somebody tried to compare Baker's running style, especially after the big third quarter runs.
I believe in Week seven, like, hey, you know, Josh Allen and Jade Daniels and Lamar Jackson and Todd Bowles, who's had some fun at the podium this year, got the hickels like he couldn't stop laughing in the comparison, and Baker, you know, you know, said he was a serviceable runner, but it was sixty plus yards that they needed on the ground against the Saints and that comeback win which was his first ever comeback from down ten in the fourth quarter for Baker Mayfield. And yet both
guys good with their feet in different capacities. Because you mentioned it was Jaden's worst game, he still had two rushing touchdowns in eighty eight yards in that open of the problem was the commander's defense in dan Quinn's unit, they just weren't there. They hadn't figured out the way that they wanted to approach things. And they've gone through multiple iterations since and they've gotten Marshaun Lattimore, who has been at practice this week, and so you know, it's
been a talking point. But if Marsham was on the field for the Saints, Mike Evans would not have gotten it, would not have gotten those one thousand yards because there's no way Marsham was not jamming him with the lot of scrimmage on that last play in the game.
Yeah, that was a coaching breakdown that apparently Darren Rizzy was very upset. It's the reason why I favor the Bucks is that Washington defense, which got better during the year. They got good enough to be okay. And there's not a huge difference statistically between the Bucks and Washington, although in Dvoa, Bucks are right around average. In the Washington's closer to twenty first twenty second, which feels about right
to me. But I just can't. I think the biggest mismatch of this game is those guys who have big salaries and some production this year. Dante Fowler, Jonathan Allen Payne, Jerry Newton, the rookie. Can they get any pressure on Baker in this great offensive line? Can they stop the run with Bucky Irving. It's the group I think could be most vulnerable. Maybe Frankie Luvium pops some big plays, you know, da Mario Davis was all over the screen game the Bucks had last week, Maybe LUVU can do that,
but ultimately I don't really trust their defense. I don't trust the Bucks defense a ton, but they do have Antoine Winfield back for the game. They are relatively healthy, they're a little bit better stopping the run. You got Vita Vea playing well. These are two unpredictable teams, though Patrick. I looked in variants according to FTN Fantasy and Aaron Shots, and this matches my eye test variants being like one
week to the next not consistent. They are two of the seven least consistent teams of the year, and the Bucks really strike me as that because to me, the Bucks are a legit Super Bowl contender when they're at their best, but they're just you just not. But they also have those games where they're very lucky to beat bad teams or they just they have stinkers. And Washington's a little bit like that too. They're a little up
and down. So I don't know, anything could happen, but I definitely favor the Bucks a little bit here.
Yeah, it's hard not to see what this Chargers team has done late this season and then think back to the Bucks. Absolutely evaporating them in so Far Stadium a few weeks ago as a sign right of the type of variance that they offer. But I know that Jayden Nagiels was under pressure against the Dallas Cowboys. Michael Parsons doesn't play for the Buccaneers or really anybody else. I think that provided a unique that sultage where the Bucks
got to rely on Ellijah Cansey. Videvea did get a sack in Week eighteen, but it's it's a little bit of a different offense than a different different monster when it's Spencer Rattler versus Jayden Daniels right now.
Well, yeah, to your point, they were very lucky they beat the Saints. They were losing by ten to Spencer Ratler in the Saints and if Ratler hadn't missed, there was like two third down throws in the second half that it wasn't so much good defense, it was just they didn't hit it. It's like we could be talking about the Falcons in this game, which is crazy. It's Cliff Kingsbury's last chance potentially before he maybe has a
head coaching job if he wants it. There's some take he might not even want him he's just loving life with I don't blame him, but I think it's a matchup. He could look good. I liked what I saw to him late in the season. I also liked what I saw of Marcus Mariota. I mentioned some insane stats that he has over this course of the season in our
QB Island Show. And when you think Mariota, you also think Titans And a little bit awkward to transition here, Patrick, But before we go to break, I don't know if you saw the huge breaking news today about the Titans radio booth.
No.
Mike Keith has accepted a job with the University of Tennessee to be the next voice of the Tennessee Volunteers. And I presume he's done with with the Titans, that he he is moving on to Tennessee. Wait do I even know that for sure? Do I just could he do both? Could he possibly do both?
I mean there's a there's a Saturday Sunday situation. I would I would hope, especially on the heels. You know, they just fired their GM uh. You know, folks are looking back to the John Robinson trade of AJ Brown. Mike Mike Keith is the Tennessee Titans. There's to me, right, there's very little because we have the Titans for some
reason playing in those those oilers uniforms. I think it kind of flies in the face of the actual Titans tradition, which includes right Steve McNair, which includes Frank Wycheck and Kevin Dyson, and all the plays and all the memories, Derreck Henry, everything that's happened in Nashville comes with that signature touchdown Titans that I don't want to believe this, and I would hope that that all parties involved come to the right conclusion.
Yeah.
I mean, we talked about how badly they mismanaged the general manager and coaching situation, and there's more to that we'll get to on a future show. But how do you lose Mike Keith? It is confirmed. Keith said in a statement that it's very hard to say goodbye to the Titans, but it's hard not to say a yes to a return to the University of Tennessee. He was once an announcer for them before they fumbled the bag. So bad job, but at least let's go to a
break remembering a great moment in Tennessee. Titans and Mike Keith History. Let's go back to wild card weekend, stay on topic. After the two thousand and seventeen season. The Titans are trailing twenty one to three against the Chiefs. There's no way they're going to come back on Andy Reid and this crew back in a minute.
Mariota takes the snap, looks to his right, looking looking pomping, throwing into the end zone.
No, he kept it, dove for the zone itself and got in. Oh my goodness, I thought.
For sure Mariota had thrown it. Want to play it was batted back to him.
He did throw it, he caught it for a touchdown.
Touchdown. Titans want to play Marcus Mariota, who just.
Threw and caught a touchdown pass.
Back on NFL Daily talked to NFC wild Card. Let's go to the AFC where it feels like there's more mismatches. Let's just be real and let's start with the biggest point spread of the week, Raven Steelers. I can't believe it. A Raven Steelers game is down to nine and a half. Actually, so some people who are betting on national game might agree with you, Patrick, because earlier in the week it was ten and a half. But I see now it's nine and a half. This is the prime video game.
We have never had a Prime video playoff game. It is on Saturday Night. Al Michaels, Kirk, Herbstreet, Kaylee Hartung, the potential MVP winner in Lamar Jackson. I think he's gonna win. I actually do. I think it's going to be extremely close, but I think he's going to win. He is playing against a Steelers team that they just faced on a Saturday, what was it three weeks ago now before before they had that double dip on Christmas in a game that I think was closer than the
score indicated. Nose flowers. I know, more than anything, those Steelers uniforms and the number and how everyone is talking about this game has got Patrick Claybund nervous.
Well, yeah, it's it's not just the Steelers uniforms. It's the team, the team that historically has provided problems for Baltimore's offense, and a lot of those pieces still there, most notably uh T J. Watt and and a game where they you know, they've they started out great with the run game in the matchup against the Steelers on that Saturday before both teams would go on to play uh the very next week, but there's the injury concern
for the Steelers was a big problem. Then they lose their the one of their top corners, and Joey Porter Jr. Takes a Henry knee to the to the shoulder and neck area leaves for the rest of the game, they're kind of playing a man down the secondary and really a whole lot of reeds and r p o s by Lamar and Derrick Henry were called perfectly and executed perfectly, and it's still wound up being relatively close till the
till the Ravens were able to pull away late. And so now on the other side, Zay Flowers is a big part of the passing game because of the things that he does that nobody else on the team does right. It's it's just different and provides a different look for the defense and you're able to get the ball out to him quickly on screens where you know Nelson Aguilar and Rashad Bateman aren't duplicating that, and it puts puts more pressure on Mark Andrews, who had another great game
against the Steelers. But that the cascading effect does take points away, where ten points to me would have been absurd if the teams were at full strength, it feels even more absurd now at this point. Yeah, it's they have to encourage action. Lines of the westper action, and they want they want action on the game.
So I get that too, But it's also on the statistical profile, which for the Ravens offense is outrageous. It's historic, and because they have so many l's in their standing and look, twelve and five is a great record. They had a tough schedule, it's not anything to be embarrassed about. But because you know there's a decent amount of them, people don't think of them in historic terms. But yeah, I've been mentioning dvo A a lot, like they're their
top three all time. You know, their combination of explosive passing plays being extremely regular and both explosive running gains and sustaining running games is just a lot to deal with. And they're not afraid to go down the field. Neither are the Steelers, but they're so efficient at doing it. You're right, losing Zay hurts because he opens up I think a lot for other people. He's the guy that
other defenses worry about the most I do. I think Rashad Bateman looked fantastic in Week eighteen and overall had a really strong season. I mean, his final numbers really show what a big step forward. He's got a suddenness to him. He's a nice downfield threat. They still have the tight ends, they still have the running game, so they still have Lamar Jackson, not just how great he is throwing the ball this year, but really made a point to run. This is the one defense though, that
has consistently stopped him running. That was even true three weeks ago, and that game, to me, was very reliant on those two turnovers the Ravens force. It's funny because I think it's the only time Russell Wilson actually played well over the last month was against the Ravens. He just had those two turnovers, which we're massive play, so I guess he didn't play that well. But other than those two plays, I thought he played one of his
best games of the season. So if you're a Steelers fan, there's a little bit of encouragement to take from that because the Ravens defense has really played well and it's one of the few times a good a quarterback has looked good against them in the last six or seven weeks.
Yeah, Lamar's got these four interceptions this season, a couple
of them coming against the Picksburgh Steelers. One incredible play by the rookie Peyton Wilson on Justice Hill down the sideline, and another was to play before that Russ pass that was picked off by Marlon Humphrey where Rashaan Bateman kind of stops running and Lamar throws one out and the flat the Steelers pick it off, and so they like there's the there's the give and the take, like there's you know, and again all the all the MO believers
right that the Steeler should have scored after that interception. Turns out, you know, the Ravens get the turnover because cause and effect the things that you do actually or what matters. But that's how that's how close even that game it was, so again ten points down and a half points stall silly to me.
Yeah, Now that said, they've lost four in a row. I think the two worst teams in the playoffs are the Steelers and the Texans. That's my opinion. How they're playing right now. I think they're two average teams and for the most part. The playoffs are above average teams. Russ is and their offense is playing their worst overall at the worst time. I think there's fair questions about
how Mike Tomlin prepares this team. He goes so hard in training camp, he goes so hard in terms of their practice schedule, and you look at how they faded down the stretch a number of times. I'm always cautious to make cause and effect on these sort of things, but they just don't. They haven't finished well, and especially their pass rush seems tired. TJ. Watt seems tired. That's the number one thing I think to watch in this game.
Their pass rush just needs to be better. It wasn't any better than the Ravens pass rush was when they played in that game. It wasn't any better than the Bengals was last week. That's where their dudes are at. And the guards for the Ravens, especially or maybe even Rosen Garden, I think they're vulnerable if they get into some passing situations. They got to show up, like they blitzed a ton against the Ravens last time and it
didn't work at all. Like that's it to me. If we see a real Watt, herbig Hayward high Smith game. They got a chance. But if they keep playing the way they've played over the last month, it's not just Russell Wilson in terms of big names that have fallen off. They haven't fallen off as much, but they haven't been special. And that's to me kind of the number one thing I'm watching in this game. If they show up, then you might be sweating this thing out.
Now, Well, Greg, I'm gonna be sweating out regardless, but I do because you mentioned TJ. Watt. I'm just awaiting whenever the season ends. I feel like we're going to find out and get some context for whatever Watt was dealing with down the stretch this season, because the number drop off kind of matches what the eye test shows is it's something's not right fair fair.
Before we move to the next game, do you think Justin Fields has a chance to play here? Like, how long do you think Russell Wilson's leash is?
Well, in terms of a leash, I mean.
Being flat out replaced for like at least an entire series or two and see how it goes.
No, it's gonna have to be I think he would play himself all the way out of the game, like it would have to be t J. Yates against the Bengals like this is or I get or maybe it was Andy Dalton had had the bad game in that one. But it's just gonna have to be a categorical like two picks in a fumble, like on a weird pitch. I think Tomlin's sticking sticking with Russ for the remainder of the season.
I disagree. I don't feel strongly about it. I just think there's a better chance than people think that Russ could get pulled sooner than later, and it might not even need to be catastrophic because this is it. This is the last game he's seen a lot. Yeah, he started better than Russ and everyone was apologizing for questioning the over the last five weeks. He's now playing at a lower level than their offense was with fields and it'd be quite a change up. It'd be quite a
ballsy move. I'd like to see it. So maybe I'm just wish casting it'd be interesting, but I don't give the Steelers a ton of a chance. Ultimately, this is what the Ravens do. They improve late in the season while the Steelers are falling apart. They figure out their defensive problems. They either add guys on defense or they actually just get rid of them, like they did with Eddie Jackson. They figure out their problems and apparently just kick them off the team or he got himself kicked
off the team. They're playing their best right now and the Steelers are facing their worst. So even if you end up sweating it out a little bit, I actually think the Ravens cover the number here and yeah, let's go Ravens. Okay, let's go to the Bills game. So I mentioned I thought the two worst teams in the
playoffs were probably the Texans and the Steelers. I think the Bill's got a tough draw relatively in that the first thing I look for in these games are like, who's winning the battle of the line of scrimmage and
coaching and obviously quarterbacks quarterbacks. It's as obviously it's big a mismatch as you could have now coaching, I would never doubt Sean Payton in a one game situation, not saying he has some huge advantage over at mcdurrant, but he's awesome and the line play that's where I'm really getting to that, it's a difficult matchup. You got to
favor the Broncos. The biggest mismatch in this game other than the quarterbacks is the pass protection that the Broncos should have for Bonicks against a pretty mediocre pass rush to bad for the Broncos. And then on the other side, it's strength on strength. It's one of, if not the best pass rushers in the entire NFL against one of the best offensive line. You'd have to give the Broncos like a slight edge there. That's closer it's strength on strength,
but even a slight edge there. So if you tell me you got a great coach and you got two great lines, you got a chance. And I kind of like the Broncos to to make them sweat it out.
I do as well, Greg, because another part of that is thinking about how Zach Allen is double teamed on almost thirty five percent of his pass rushes. I believe
it's above it's north of thirty five percent. And when we've seen what the Broncos can do on offenses, but particularly in the screen game late where I think you can kind of challenge this Bills team in the secondary as well as with Courtland Sutton kind of that best kind of that one option where the reason I was able to successfully pick that Rams game over the Buffalo
Bills was the mismatch that Puka Nakua provides. Now, I'm not saying that Courtland Sutton is in that Puka kind of range as a problem giver to the Buffalo Bills, but I think in terms of the matchup, he's got an advantageous look where if the Bills are going to win this game, they're it's gonna have to be Josh in the offense going up and down the field because it's going to be very difficult. I think where if you try to corral Bo Nicks. We saw him make
several plays to Marvin Mims Junior. Over the course, Tony Franklin has gotten worked into to the deep game as well, and they have those options where you know, the Sean Payton screen one of the more effective plays. Now, I can't do them them. I did almost cost them a game against the Bengals. They were able to get in overtime in that game. But they can hit them at any time and they're very successful at running.
Yeah, he's very good at picking out mismatches and the Bills are a good defense, but they're spots where you can find a linebacker in coverage. Whether it's Matt Mulano who has come back from the injury but has generally been sitting out on third down, so I think they're telling us something about his usage. Maybe they'll change, Maybe
they'll change that for the playoffs. But whether it's Tim or Dorrian Williams in pass coverage or you know, some of the safeties, if you try to get McLoughlin matched up on Deamar Hamlin or however, it's gonna be in terms of just Peyton's so good at that that he has problems to every team. And bo Nicks is decisive and he executes it, and he is a high variance player, really good plays. He'll have some misses and negative plays, but they're gonna have a chance to possess the ball,
I think in this game and shorten the game. The you know, number one X factor is though, who are we talking about here? We're Josh. We're talking about Josh Allen, the potential MVP at his absolute apex, and a great running game to support him, of which he's a part of. That's great, Like the Broncos could play their A game and he could just play like great offense beats great defense, and he could just beat everything you want to do.
It's hard to blitz him. He's great against the blitz, like they're great running the ball, and that's probably the way you want to beat vance Joseph, just to get out of those long yarded situations. So they have every answer and he could just just like Lamar, I should have said with him, if they play their A plus game, they're so good they're gonna win, at least unless they're playing each other, like they very well could be next week, So that that's part of it. Is like their ceiling
is obviously higher. That's why the number is so big. But I think if you just take out kind of Josh Allen, then these two teams look a lot more even.
Yeah, which is an exceedingly difficult thing to be right, but between like Nick Benito has had a great year, a great year shown that explosiveness that you have to have on the edge right to deal with with Lamar and Josh Allen to where you know it's not necessarily corralling them, but just having the ability to bother them when they're back there doing that thing where either one of them and Josh Allen this instance kind of floats towards the right sideline where the play is never over.
He's completed multiple passes this season where he's actually been in the air out of bounds right and so's it's that borderline where you're having to deal with this quarterback out on the edge, having to not hit him late, but also trying to keep him from fireing the ball fifty yards downfield, where I think the Broncos secondary, in terms of the matchups, does have the advantage against the Bills receivers, not necessarily like Kincaid and Knocks, but the
Bill's receivers. We don't still waiting on Amari Cooper's personal issue. He was able to go home from the team, and Sean McDermott says, you know, it's full leeway. We just hope Amari's back and hope he's okay. But the matchup, whether he plays or not, I think favors the Broncos secondary purely discussing the pass catchers.
Cooper is an interesting point. I should have mentioned that he has really played as their fourth receiver snap wise, but he kind of like I was talking about with Christian Watson. He provides something just the rest of the team doesn't in terms of his savvy and yeah, Ken Coleman could make a big play, but I'm trusting Amari on the boundary and his versatility. So that is something to watch. Riley Moss came back from his injury and hasn't played as well, so you know he's someone to
keep an eye on. And yet it's kind of like that Steelers game in terms of the underdog. It's about that pass rush for me there, it's not just Benito, who's a defensive Player of the Year candidate, should should be on ballots. I think he really has been that good certain who will be on ballots might win the award. And it's Cooper, it's Franklin Myers. Like they have a lot of guys and if they can just harass Josh repeatedly over and over and win that battle against a
good Bills offensive line, they got a chance. All right, let's go to the Chargers game. It's actually in the west of his window, but it's a fun one. I I love the quarterback matchup seen Stroud in his second time in the playoffs, seeing Herbert kind of in full flow. We're gonna talk about this at length, like I mentioned in this Seth Pain interview that we're gonna throw to after the break and wrap the show up. But you know, I always want to hear what Patrick has to say,
like how good of a chance do you see? It's it's a road favorite here, Chargers by three, and we get Charles Davis and Iron Eagle. What a great playoff you know, lineup of announcers. I love me some Charles in Iron in the playoffs.
Yeah, just a great crew. You know your game will be able to see on CBS or or or stream on on Paramount plus. Where you've got you've got two teams that that have beaten one playoff team. Now, the advantage for the Chargers they were able to beat the Broncos twice, so they get two wins against playoff teams, and and the Texans have that win over the Bills and so and that was in terms of how the season goes, it feels like it was a very very
long time ago. But they they've still got that talent where they're able to complete I think Nico Collins uh is in that discussion of range, you know, top top five receivers. Uh in the NFL, where when c J. Stroud is targeting Nico Collins, it's like all those all those problems of the season, uh just aren't really there.
Yeah. Third and in yards per run over the last couple of seasons, who's that. It's Pooka Dustin Devers in a Nico So like that's the company he's keeping.
And so like when he's looking at twelve, all things are great. It's when he's not targeting Nico Collins the issues kind of rise up. And we got two really good rookie defenders in tarp tar heeb Still and Bullock Over On the other side for the Texans where it's a great matchup, I give Houston I think a better chance than most in this game, especially with the being at NRG.
Yeah, the big home field advantage. We talk about that with Seth. My main thing is that the running game behind Herbert's gotten better, and that more than anything, we
are back to agro Herbert. The yards, the air yards have gone way up, like the yards perttempt have gone way up, and just the eye test the last couple of weeks, he hit an opposite hash throw last week against the Raiders where he was standing on his own three yard line and he completed it to like the other sideline at the fifty and it was like nothing. And he is just going for those types of throws in a way that I didn't see the confidence from him or maybe it was in his receivers or the
system early. So he is playing his best, whereas CJ is to me up and down and they can control the ball. Interestingly, the Chargers are really good playing ball, control offense by passing the ball, and ultimately I think their offense is just too good. But yes, I'm going to talk about that with Seth at length. Everyone stay for that. It's a great conversation. We're actually gonna wrap
the show with Seth while we're talking Chargers. Breaking news literally as this as we're speaking, the Raiders have fired Tom te LESCo, who lasted one year there in Las Vegas after being with the Chargers. Earlier this week we spoke at length. It was a good conversation about the Antonio Pierce firing, and we said, yeah, Telesco's there for now.
We'll we'll see what this means in terms of who is coming into the building, the feedback they're getting Maybe there's zeroing in on someone that didn't want to LESCo. Maybe they just decided once Mark Davis talked to like the other owners like Tom Brady, that there was no scenario where it made sense to clep keep t LESCo. So he is out, as well as Antonio Pierce. Ultimately, I think that's the best way to run franchises is higher your gms and your coaches at the same time.
But like Antonio Peers, it's like, what chance did Tom Telesco really get this year? Not that you know, he was amazing and with the Chargers he was fine, but it's like he took over an impossible situation.
Yeah, it rings to me if you're gonna, if you're gonna make this decision for both of them after a season, then why'd you put them in this position in the first place, especially Tom Telesco coming from across the division. But hey, somebody, somebody gets a shot. I guess it hiring a coach or being brought in with a coach and the number six overall pick, So hey, good good luck.
I am really intrigued by the Raiders coaching search. They have the most interesting list of candidates, but our focus is on the playoffs. Yes, we're gonna throw to break and we'll listen to Seth pain. Appreciate you, Patrick, stay safe, and yes we will be back on Friday with our usual pick show with Cynthia from home. It'll be me and Seth on the other side, back on NFL Daily
with one of my favorite guests. And just speaking out of self interest, it occurred to me this week this could be the last time the Houston Texans to play a game, and that means it's probably the last time I got a chance to get on. Like I said one of my favorite guests, Seth payin you your mouth is a gape.
Set I'll talk.
You had me because this might be the last opportunity because you think so lowly of the Texans. I just I can't deny that that kind of makes sense. Unfortunately, Yeah, thanks, thanks, though, I appreciate it.
Well, you just you just never know either we're going to be talking at the very beginning of what's going to be a surprising and magical run deep into the playoffs, or it'll be a chance to kind of close the book look look ahead to this game. But also this is a team that fascinates me it's a franchise that fascinates me. And we talked all the way back in August, I believe, and then we talked when they were on on Thursday Night Football around Halloween and just sets, Yeah,
that was tough. And coming into this season we think maybe maybe are they going to be the team that challenges the Chiefs. We feel differently, they're into just a strange place kind of where do you just big picture before we get into the game, where like, where do you think they are in year two? Here of Demico Ryans's tenure back to back AFC South Championships, back to back playoff spot after a three year period where they won ten games combined, I do like to present that context.
It's easy to forget Bill O'Brien was the coach just a few years ago. It was year after it was Bill O'Brien, and then David Kelly love Smith and now Damiko Ryan. So he's done a great job. But yet this feels like a disappointing season heading into the playoffs.
It is because of the way the second half of the season has gone, for sure, but then the entire season, the offense has been a disappointment, especially I mean when we talked to you in August, it was, you know, hey, you got step On Diggs, Nico Collins, Tank, Dell Man.
It's gonna be an aerial assault.
And even though those three guys were never on the field together that much, when they were, it wasn't overly impressive from the passing side of things.
And then even when they would.
Have it various times, Okay, you've got Nico and Tank out there. You've got On and Tank, they could just never get the pass game going.
And you know, CJ.
Stroud obviously has not had the same performance this year that he did last year. He didn't build on the promise of his rookie year. So that's been the really frustrating thing. And you know, the defense, the defense played very well. There's been a few things that have kept them from being a genuinely elite defense. But you've got a defensive minded head coach. The defense is doing great.
You know, Frankly, in a lot of ways, it feels like Lovey Smith back with the Bears when the defense was awesome, and man, they managed to make it to a Super Bowl feasting on turnovers and whatnot, but they didn't have a guy that had the promise of c. J.
Stroud. That's been the really frustrating part of it.
Yeah, the numbers say tell the story. In terms of DVOA, they're sixteenth, which feels about right in terms of do they just feel like about an average team overall? But the third in defense not a dominating defense. It's not a year with great defense, but third and defense twenty sixth in offense very surprising. I actually want to start. Let's start with the positive, because there is a route to winning this game, and it's on the defensive side of the ball. You have the edge rushers, which are
as good as any team in the league. You're going up against a Chargers team who have good tackles, but Rashwan Slater's coming off of an injury. They might be rotating their guards because they haven't quite chosen one. That's not a great sign and not a team that has a ton of playmakers. I guess tell me how you feel this defense looks right now in how they match up.
The biggest issue with the defense right now is that their slot corner started off being Jalen Petrie and Jimmy Ward was playing safety. Jalen Petrie got injured, so now Jimmy Ward goes down to play the slot corner, which in this defense they use really effectively, at least with the previous two guys, but now they're kind of stuck with a belieguered secondary and Miles Bryant will play the slot corner at times, Kamari Lassiter will but it's the
strength of that defense. It's a frustrating thing. The money positions, the defensive ends and the cornerbacks. They are in great shape. They got Daniel Hunter or Daniel Danielle Hunter.
And Will Anderson up front.
You've got Kamari Lasser and Derek Stingley at cornerback. But because of the disheveled secondary, Kamaria Laster has to move around a little bit.
You don't feel like it maybe.
Necessarily can shadow with Derek Stingley as as well as you could in the past, but they look The biggest thing the defense can do, aside from playing really good coverage, is they take the ball away. And they're still top five in the league in takeaways. But that's you know, as you know, it's really hard to make a playoff run feasting on turnovers, and you go back to if you're not an all time defense, but you can take the.
Ball away a lot.
The Bears twice with Dick Charon and Lovey Smith like a long time ago, had really nice runs in the playoffs in that it's just you, you can't bank on it. And then they they allow too many explosive plays.
They've they've allowed.
In the top three in passing touchdowns all year. So they've just got little glitches that keep them from being really really good. And when I watch when I watched Justin Herbert, I feel like, man, I've spent the last two days almost like becoming like a Chargers fan. That feels like Justin Herbert's not getting enough respect because because I want you look at his numbers and you're like, okay, yeah, they're not actually all that much different from some of
his previous years in his career. But I think he's doing exactly what Jim Harbaugh's asking him to do, which is Jim Harbaugh style, run, run the hell out of the ball, take your opportunities where they're there. But he's not turning the ball over at all. He's turning the ball over three times. It's the second fewest turnovers of somebody that's passed more than five hundred past attempts in a season.
Wow. And I think that he's I think he's.
Playing like he isn't a game manager, but he's managing the games really well and he's still making some pretty spectacular throws. So I'm I'm nervous about the fact that the Texans have had these lapses where they allow these explosive plays, and Justin Herbert is just the guy to do that right.
And he's always been a game manager. That's what's bothered me about him. If anything, I love I love Herbert since since the day he came in the league. I thought this is going to be the next great quarterback. And I think he is a great quarterback. He's been a top ten quarterback in my mind since he entered the league. That's hard to find. But he hasn't quite reached the top level. But if any if he has
any fault, he's too safe. And I think over the last month especially, he's playing his best football, like ripping the ball very aggressive. I don't think he's playing safe lately. They're starting to hit those explosive plays. Their offense is peaking now. I do wonder like especially Quinton Johnson coming off of a great game, like who covers Lad McConkey on this team, if they struggle over the middle of the field, you know, covering and some of the numbers
agree with what you're what you're saying there. The Chargers are fourth and EPA passing over the ale of the field and that that's where McConkie does his work.
Yeah, and it exactly and he works.
You know, he worked in the beginning of the season mostly in the slot, and they've started to move him outside more. But that's where the Texans kind of getting to bind is that Derek Stingley doesn't play in the slot. If you move Kamari Lassiter down into the slot, then you've got either guys you don't feel about awesome about
on the outside. And you know Quintin Johnson, Yeah, he had that, Quinn john My best hope for Quinton Johnson at times in this game might be that Quintin Johnson does a good job defending himself by dropping the football.
So, I mean, which is a thing like and that's another part when I go back to Herbert, you know.
He's been doing this with a developing Lad McConkie. He's very polished as a rookie, but he's a rookie still and without the full compliment of receivers he had when he put up some of those more prolific numbers earlier
in his career. But again, when I look at the Texans defense, the one big thing is that at Home Anne Energy Stadium, they've they made Josh Allen throw thirty complete thirty percent of his passes, Jared Goff there you go, thrive five interceptions for Jared Goff, Tua through three interceptions, and Tua's two through three interceptions in a day where he barely threw past the line of scrimmage. So there's that. Don't ask me about Lamar Jackson.
I want that was late in the year. I want some Texans optimism. Give me a little bit of like the vibe of Demiko, because there is something to the fact that they made the playoffs a year ago. They're in year two of their their run. Harbaugh's in year one. They have an experience winning, they have a home field advantage, and no one's going to be picking them for this game. I don't know, you know, if that's really going to
like fire everyone up. But Rex Ryan was on TV saying this was basically a bye for the.
Basically he said it. He said, yeah, so he said they got a bye. That was perfect though.
I think that's a that's you know, Dimiko all year long, like every coach in the NFL has talked about, you know, you got to avoid the outside noise. Don't listen to the outside noise. The great thing about Rex Ryan is that that's.
That was such a perfect chip to put on.
A shoulder that I think you can play the disrespect card there and get people fired up. I think the defensive guys, I love the defense. They play like psychos, like the right kind of psychos. They all they all look like they want to do harm to the opponent. Offense not so much.
They're much nice get to the offense. Give me a little bit on how you think Stingley has played this year.
Oh, he's been great, man, you know, because his biggest his biggest thing really in his first couple of years was just staying healthy. And last year I think he played at a Pro Bowl caliber. He just only played however many games, I think nine games by the time they voted on the Pro Bowl. So like this has been his first completely healthy season. And the fun thing about him, is that he's just in complete command and
control all the time. I've always been I've always been most jealous of d defensive backs in terms of athleticism.
Because they're just the guys that are really good.
Like Stingley, they're you know, they can move in all all directions, they can turn their hips, they can do all those things like they're like gymnasts on a football field. And that's what Stingley is like. And he's gotten to that point now where he can bait people a little bit. There's a lot of times he tracks the ball really well. So there's times where it feels like Stingley, even when his back is still turned to the quarterback, has a better feel for when the ball is going to arrive
than the receiver himself. So that's his ability to create turnovers. Kamari Lassiter and Kylen Bullock the rookie, they've both had a bunch of interceptions, so their ability to either intercept the ball or force fumbles and strip sacks and everything that's real. Like, there's a lot about this Texans team that disappointed offensively certainly, but even defensively, they haven't quite reached where I think they're.
Capable of being, but they take the ball away a lot.
Right And you mentioned having two rookie players in the secondary, and it's very similar to the Chargers with Tarheeb still and who is a cam Hart. But I think Lassiter and Bullock have been even better. Bullock made an incredible interception last week that was overturned. And there is something too, I don't know. He's a defensive coach and his defense is doing the job. And if you just look at the players, like who are great players? I think the Texans,
you know, have more of them overall. They certainly do on the defensive side. Both Saint Mac are not who they used to be on as the edge players, and for the Chargers it seems a little more like scheme and effort, which goes a long way, but that maybe their defense is a little more vulnerable, whereas if one side of the ball for either team is going to just step up and like star players are going to show out, it could be Hunter and Anderson in Stingley
and as he he's al Shaier. I feel like it is mostly known nationally for the suspension, but he was really good this year. He really matters for them, and he's back in.
No, No, I'm glad you brought him up because it's especially when you go back to that Ravens game. I mean, the linebackers and the defensive ends, you know, the defensive ends just they weren't playing the zone read and all of that element that goes with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson very well at all. But the linebackers, especially without his, he's al Shire back there kind of directing traffic, alerting guys.
There have been times this year the Jacksonville game actually there was there was a goal line stand that it was really critical and the Texans ended up winning the game. But his he's basically told the defensive line exactly what play was coming, you know, like that kind of veteran leadership and then being able to keep guys on their keys and know the tendencies and get everything all together.
That's a big difference. And I agree with one hundred percent in terms of the names and the impact play ability of the guys on the d defense is really really good. It's just they're going up against the quarterback who's only thrown three interceptions on the year, and and he's never you know, he hasn't he's only had he hasn't had a multi interception game. It's it's gonna be on them, and they're capable of doing it.
It's just a it's a really big if because the other side.
Of it is that the Texans offense, I don't even know where they rank in the rushing stats right now.
Because dead last success right.
Yeah right, their second running back getting hit in the backfield. And I can't tell you how many times there were this year, greg where Joe Mixon would have like one hundred and forty yards rushing and immediately after the game, you're like, they couldn't run the ball for crap, because it was it was it was like one or two huge Joe Mixon runs where he broke a tackle in the backfield, bounced it outside.
But the success rate.
The ability to run on first and second down consistently, it just gets them in third and long all the time. And then the pass protection is they've improved some of the egregious stuff from earlier in the year, but see's just he's getting harassed all the time, and it's a really hard watch.
That part of is a really hard watch.
It is. Yeah, So I mentioned twenty sixth overall in offense, but in terms of allowing pressure, in terms of the running game, the offensive line still is banged up. You have Shaq Mason not practicing. I assume he's out for this game, which so they're trying to figure things out.
Where do you think Stroud is at. I wanted to be optimistic and watched last week's game and see a really good first drive where they scored a touchdown and to your point about running the ball, they tried to run it in on the goal line and they couldn't. I was like, this is perfect. They ran right down the field and they get stuffed on the goal line. They were bad and short yards, but they did throw for the touchdown, you know, to Nico, I think from the one or two yard line and you got out
of there with a perfect touchdown. And he just seems like such an to me from the outside, an emotional player that like when it's going well, it's going well, and he's in rhythm and it's incredible, and when it's not, maybe it's like just the negativity, it's just getting worse and worse, like he gets stuck in it. I don't know if.
That Yeah, well, you know the one, the one big moment was when Tank Dell got injured in the Chiefs game, and it was as Tank Dell, I mean, Tank Dell's knee got blown apart and he held onto the ball on a deep shot into the end zone, and it was it was a great play. And that was in a game where they were kind of clicking with Tank Dell.
They were playing well.
Yeah, Tank had six receptions in the first half and plus that one, and he was playing as well and was getting as many touches as he's had all season long. And then it just went could put And immediately after that play, I mean CJ came in and they they drove down into the red zone. But then CJ made a couple of really bad errors. The next week, he didn't really show up. That's the only time all year where we were wondering I think if CJ just almost
like had been broken mentally or something or emotionally. I think to week and within a game, I don't worry about I think he's pretty stable. He's pretty calm, cool and collected. The thing about it, though, is that you could almost see it as the season progressed, as he started to.
Get hit more and more and more the process got sped up.
I think you started to see more inaccurate throws, like errant throws even when there wasn't pressure, or there's times where you could just see him trying to figure out, all right, when do I need to get rid of the ball quickly? When do I need to check down? When can I when can I string the play out
a little bit longer? And then there have also there's been speculation that maybe he's way more banged up than he's let on, or then we know, and that might provide you don't want to make excuses, like he's flat out said that he doesn't want to make excuses for that. But there's just there's so many things wrong with the offense right now that it's really hard to talk about one underperforming group without also thinking about the three other
underperforming groups that are that are contributing to that. And it's just a it's a big it's a big, soggy house of cards, like a house of cards in a rainstorm or something.
There's no solid foundation anything.
Yeah that Bobby Sloweck has constructed. And he's out here getting an interview with the Jets for a head coaching job, and I can't be the only one thinking at this point. And I don't want you don't want to be rooting for guys to lose their jobs. But if I had to guess, if they have a bad offensive performance, like I wouldn't necessarily expect Bobby Slowek to be back as the coordinator without knowing anything just how it's operated, because
I think for half a season CJ was heroic. He was making at work despite terrible surroundings, and eventually it sort of caved in on him. But they just they haven't had solutions. Do you have any optimism that they could they could find some here at the last second.
Like whether it's the coordinator or I mean, the offensive line doesn't seem to be executing fundamental things all that well, whatever it is, there needs to be a systemic change, whether that's changing coaching personnel or their methodology or approach to life. I don't know, maybe they need to go from maybe they need to be Presbyterians instead of Methodists.
I don't have a clue. It's it's really really bad.
And you know where it all came to head was in the Ravens game. Really, because you look at the Ravens this year, and in Lamar Jackson's second game or second year with Todd Monkin, I mean, he looks reborn. He looks like a polished NFL quarterback passing quarterback, but he can still run the hell out of the ball. And it's just everything that you wondered about for years with Okay, is it Greg Roman's fault?
Is it Lamar Jackson's fault?
I don't know, but Harbaugh, And it's hard to criticize Harba, but Harbaugh probably waited too long to make a decision on just changing, whether you whether you wanted to blame Greg Roman or not or whatever. Like change for change's sake some times is a good thing. And if you drag it out and drag it out and drag it out, I think you can steiny a guy's growth a little bit. And I think, and I don't mean to think, I don't mean to act like Lamar Jackson wasn't a really
good passer before. It's just this year, it's it's all come together. He's doing all the finer aspects of the game, like balancing when to take shots, when to take when not to when to run the ball, just pushing the ball outside the numbers, with ease.
It's just it's the complete and total package.
And I don't I personally like, I don't think that you can extend this experiment any longer down the road, Like you've got to make some kind of a even if the Texans make a nice playoff run here, somehow, you got to make some kind of change.
It's tough to do. It's tough to change the coordinator after even winning one playoff game, much less too. I'd be stunned if they won two. I would be moderately surprised if they won this weekend, but it's not one where I look at the three point spread for the Charges and like, that's that's a home run. It wouldn't. It wouldn't shock me because I do believe in CJ wholeheartedly. Kind of the Bryce versus CJ arguments have popped up again, and I've loved what Bryce Young has done. But I
have no I really have no questions about CJ. Stroud's future. We do gotta go, but like, do you like I think he's gonna be locked in near the top, Like how how close to the top. We'll find out, But to me, he has obviously shown enough at this level at such a young age. I really have no doubts about him in a similar way that that I had for Herbert different because he's not as like just crazy talented, but that he's gonna be a very good starter at worse for a long time.
Yeah, No, I have zero concerns about it, Like if it comes, I'll be very surprised if.
He's not better next year.
And again I think they got to make some changes offensively, but the long term, my long term confidence in him is unshaken. The biggest thing really with him is ultimately I think it's going to be really good for him to have gone through this year because there, man, there was so much love in praise heaped on all those guys offensively in the offseason, and it becomes a cliche when you talk about Nick Saban's rat poison or anything.
You know, just reading your press clipping starting to I think there are a lot of guys on that offense that didn't genuinely understand how really hard it is to win in the NFL, and that's something that happens sometimes when you play in the AFC South. So like this was a good lest year for a lot of guys, multiple teams I was AFC seid. Look, look I played for two teams that were both in the old AFC Central. Now that was a hard division to win, my friend,
especially when it was six teams. So yeah, this this, this AFC South, I've never felt comfortable being an alumnus of it.
Oh man, I yeah, I'm sorry for miss misdivisioning you. I don't even know what was going on.
In the Cent. You didn't you didn't miss division me. It doesn't exist anymore, that's.
Yeah, that's fair. And uh yeah, I do think perspective.
I played, I was in the AFC South when I was with the Texans, but it was the first five the first five years was in the AFC Central.
Okay, yeah that makes sense. Back with the Jags and uh, like I I don't want to forget, like what a journey this team has on been on. It was just a few years ago that they were stuck. You know, Deshaun Watson was hurt. They didn't know everything that they had him. They got that trade pulled off. Despite everything that we knew about them, they had won ten games
over three years with three different coaches. The ghost of Jack Easterbee was like lingering if they're like, come down season is ten and seven with an easy schedule, but ten and seven with a home division game in the offense bottoms out like that relatively is a very good place to be, as is anytime you're watching the Seth Pain Show on YouTube, you got to check out Seth's YouTube channel. It's wild. Now you're doing this thing where you're like watching the highlights and then you talk next
to it. I didn't even know that's allowed, but that's amazing, trouble. That's great.
They let y'all do you do way more than don't tell anybody. It's a little secret thing. Yeah, the NFL got really cool with the social media stuff where they'll, uh, they'll they'll take all the ad revenue from it, but they let you play highlights and everything as long as as long as you give them their their cut. Yeah, Okay, you can't amounetize the video, but it's yeah, for now, at least it's a it's a golden age of YouTube on with the NFL content.
Yeah, check out at Seth Pain Show. If you know, you can check out what is it six ' ten? I should do.
I know it's Radio six ten in Houston. Yeah, go to the Odyssey app or just watch watch us on YouTube is the easiest way. If you're outside of Houston, go to the Odyssey app. If you don't, if you don't want to burn up all your data.
Maybe this won't be the last time we talked, Seth. Maybe I'll see you in New Orleans.
Derek Barnette lyon, Derek Burnett's got two touchdowns this year, a defensive lineman, a castaway from Philadelphia is two touchdowns for the Texans.
Anything's possible. All right, that's it for our previous show. Thank you to Seth Payne. Of course thanks to Steve Wish and Patrick Claybon. Yes, when we're bringing on Seth payin potentially for the last time in this season, you.
Know, for calendar year twenty twenty five. Man